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Journey’s end but landmark success for Vanuatu

Published in Table Tennis
Thursday, 07 November 2019 05:53

Vanuatu secured a place in Tokyo following the withdrawal of Australia, the reigning Oceania champions; an opportunity arose which was not to be missed.

“I think attending this competition has again showed that popularity in table tennis in our country will continue to grow. I have been playing table tennis for more than two decades and this is the first time I have participated in a world title tournament; getting to Tokyo has again reaffirmed my belief that we can compete at top level.” Anolyn Lulu

Simply being present in Tokyo and in a country known for table tennis excellence is a major boost, a motivating force for Vanuatu.

“I cannot tell you how I felt when I got a mail from ITTF in September that we had been selected as the replacement for Australia to compete at the ITTF Team World Cup. We could not imagine this but we celebrated; we were eager to be in Tokyo. Now that we are here, we have met and seen some of the great stars we have been hearing about, this has given us hope that the future of table tennis in Vanuatu is secured as we just need to continue to work hard.” Anolyn Lulu

Olympian

An occasion to remember but Anolyn Lulu is no stranger to the big stage; she was present at the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games in an official’s role and at the London 2012 Olympic Games as a player, she competed in the women’s singles event.

“Priscilla Tommy qualified for the Olympic Games in 2008 and I was her manager at the tournament. It motivated me to aim to attend the Olympics as an athlete; this came to pass in 2012 when myself and Yoshua Shing qualified for the Olympic Games in London. So for now, table tennis has produced three Olympians for Vanuatu.” Anolyn Lulu

In Tokyo, Vanuatu has very much been a minnow; however in their region of the world, it is quite different. Earlier this year at the Pacific Games, Vanuatu in Samoa, Vanuatu won five gold medals and one silver.

“I think the breakthrough for table tennis in Vanuatu came in 2003 when as a team we won the gold medal at the Pacific Games in Fiji. This has been a major attraction to the sport. Now table tennis is part of the School National Games as well as National Games in Vanuatu and this has encouraged many people to start embracing the sport.” Anolyn Lulu

Underlying reason

Success and is there an underlying reason for the success? Can one of the reasons for the success can be attributed to the help received from a nation that has a rather good record in the sport of table tennis.

“I think we have benefitted from the generosity of the Chinese government when a partnership agreement was signed in 1987, the Chinese Table Tennis Association sent coaches and equipment Vanuatu every two years. Also the support from ITTF Oceania has also been helpful in terms of equipment.” Anolyn Lulu

No question Anolyn Lulu is dedicated to the sport of table tennis and to raising the profile of Vanuatu; conversely she is grateful for the opportunities afforded.

“Table tennis has paved way for me in life because it was through the sport that I was employed as Development Officer by Vanuatu Table Tennis Federation and it was through the sport that I am now working with the Vanuatu Olympic Committee. So what I cannot achieve in other areas, table tennis has given me and I hope more players will come through the sport.” Anolyn Lulu

Realistic and appreciative; for Vanuatu, the ZEN-NOH 2019 Team World Cup may not have produced the medal haul experienced at the Pacific Games but without doubt it has lifted the island nation, better for the experience.

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Mazda Aiming Even Higher In 2020

Published in Racing
Thursday, 07 November 2019 06:39

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. – If you happened to drive by Daytona Int’l Speedway last week, you may have heard the Mazda RT24-P DPi car turning laps around the 3.56-mile road course.

The car and its drivers turned a lot of laps at DIS last week, then moved a few hours southwest of Daytona to run even more laps at Sebring International Raceway and its legendary, 3.74 miles of bumpy concrete and tarmac.

Mind you, these tests were occurring nearly 90 days before the 2020 IMSA WeatherTech SportsCar Championship opens with the Rolex 24 At Daytona on Saturday, Jan. 25, and more than 140 days prior to the Mobil 1 Twelve Hours of Sebring Presented by Advance Auto Parts on Saturday, March 16.

So, a good first question would be why so soon?

“The Rolex 24 is the biggest endurance race in the States, it’s the biggest race on the IMSA calendar and it would just be an absolute dream if we could (win) it,” said Harry Tincknell, who co-drove the No. 55 Mazda DPi to its historic first victory in the 2019 Sahlen’s Six Hours of The Glen alongside Jonathan Bomarito and Olivier Pla.

“I mean, I feel like we have the team, we have the car, we have the engine, we have the drivers,” Tincknell continued. “It’s a reality now. I think in the past, a win at the Rolex has been a dream, whereas now it can be a reality. But it’s obviously going to be an incredibly tough race. It’s absolutely relentless and unforgiving.

“It’s the first race of the season. It’s not like we have two or three races to sort of ease our way into the championship. It’s a really brutal schedule from that point of view, which is why we’re here in October testing and getting the reliability sorted.”

Reliability is the next frontier for the Mazda DPi program.

In 2019, the obvious goal for everybody in the program was to finally get that first victory. They poured everything they had into their pursuit of victory, and were finally rewarded not just at Watkins Glen, but in the next two races as well at Canadian Tire Motorsport Park and Road America.

“Everyone says once you get the first one, they all seem to follow,” said Tristan Nunez, who won at CTMP with Oliver Jarvis in the No. 77 Mazda DPi. “Getting three in a row, I think, really showed that and we had strong showings since then. We were really close at [Motul] Petit [Le Mans on Oct. 12], but didn’t quite get there. We had some bad luck at the end.

“But as a whole, we’re there now. We’re in the first with the big teams. I think all the other teams see that. They’re not just seeing us as the Mazdas on track. They see us as a competitor, strong, and I think they’re a little bit worried about what we’re going to show this [2020] season. I think the big pressure’s out of the way now, getting that first win for Mazda. Now, it’s just continuing that momentum, getting podiums, and I think we’re going to go for a championship this season.”

And a key step to achieving that goal is to have a strong 36 Hours of Florida to start the 2020 campaign. Hence the reason they’ve already logged so many testing miles less than a month into the so-called “offseason.”

“I think 2020 is the year that we go for the championship,” Tincknell said. “That’s the year where we match consistency with winning speed. This year, it was gung-ho every race, just try and get a victory. We didn’t really hold anything back. We took a lot of risk to get those victories.

“Whereas, I think in 2020, if we can have a bit more reliability in the first two races and be up there in the championship, then we can maybe just pick and choose our moments a little bit more. Instead of going for gung-ho, 100 percent, maybe just be a little bit more risk averse and just keep scoring the points.

“Because, at the end of the season, that’s what gets you into the title fight is the consistency rather than the big highs followed by big lows. We had some massive highs in 2019 and we also had some lows. We’ve just got to be a little bit more consistent and I think that’s going to be the difference.”

Joe Gibbs Racing Sets Xfinity Crew Chief Roster

Published in Racing
Thursday, 07 November 2019 07:07

HUNTERSVILLE, N.C. – Joe Gibbs Racing has set its crew chief roster next season in the NASCAR Xfinity Series for drivers Brandon Jones, Riley Herbst and Harrison Burton.

Jeff Meendering will return as crew chief for Jones and the No. 19 Toyota Supra team for next season as the pair emerge as the veterans of JGR’s Xfinity Series program. In his first season with Jones, the duo scored Jones’ first Xfinity Series win on Oct. 19 at Kansas Speedway and have recorded six top-five finishes, 15 top-10 finishes while leading 104 laps.

“I’m having so much fun racing in the Xfinity Series right now and I’m really happy to have Jeff (Meendering) back next year,” said Jones. “We got our first win together this year and having Jeff and the team stay together on our No. 19 Toyota Supra allows us to build on that momentum. We are focused on finishing out this season strong and working hard to have a fast start to 2020 beginning in Daytona.”

Dave Rogers will return to crew chief duties to lead the No. 18 Toyota Supra team with rookie contender Riley Herbst. No stranger to the top of the pit box or JGR’s Xfinity Series program, Rogers has worked with many drivers over the course of his career. Rogers career numbers in the Xfinity Series are impressive and include 20 wins, 51 top-five finishes, 82 top-10 finishes, 24 pole starting positions and over 3,000 laps led in 128 starts.

“I’m really going to lean on Dave Rogers next season to learn as much as I can,” said Herbst. “He’s had so much success over the years with a number of different drivers and to have a veteran like him will really help as I continue to learn each week on the track. I’m looking forward to continuing to get to know him and build our relationship as we prepare for Daytona and the 2020 season.”

In his second season as crew chief at JGR, Ben Beshore will move to the No. 20 Toyota Supra team to lead Burton for his rookie season. Beshore moved from an engineer on JGR’s Cup program to Xfinity Series crew chief for the 2019 season and has worked with seven different drivers throughout the season, including Burton. Beshore and Burton have teamed up for eight starts during the season with one top-five finish and four top-10 finishes. With two races left in the season, Beshore and Burton will have their last showing together in the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway on Nov. 16 before shifting to the 2020 season and the No. 20 Toyota Supra team.

“I’m excited to get the 2020 season started and continue building on the relationship that I have with Ben (Beshore) and the entire group at JGR,” said Burton. “This year has really helped me and I’m ready to take the next step in my career with JGR and the No. 20 team.”

“We’ve got a great line up for our Xfinity program for 2020 with Brandon (Jones) really hitting his stride and both Riley (Herbst) and Harrison (Burton) continuing to develop and grow their careers,” said Steve DeSouza, Executive Vice President of Xfinity Series and Development for Joe Gibbs Racing. “I believe we have the right people in place with Jeff Meendering, Dave Rogers and Ben Beshore leading the 19, 18 and 20 teams. We look forward to each competing for race wins and ultimately a 2020 championship, along with Riley and Harrison contending for Rookie of the Year honors.”

Former captains will almost universally confirm that the most difficult part of the gig is the captain’s picks. As a leader you want to assure your choices fit seamlessly into the team and compliment the players who qualified, and as a friend you’re often forced to make tough choices and even tougher phone calls to players you didn’t select.

True to his longtime nickname, Ernie Els didn’t seem to be feeling any of those pressures last month when asked about his impending captains picks for this year’s Presidents Cup. The Big Easy even went so far as to opine that Tiger Woods, his captain counterpart for the U.S. team later this year in Australia, had tougher choices to make.

“Tiger, for sure. I don’t have to worry about picking myself,” Els laughed.

On Wednesday, Els was again asked about Woods’ choices and specifically if the U.S. captain should pick himself to play at Royal Melbourne next month. “I don't think he's got any choice,” the South African laughed.

When Woods names his four picks late Thursday the only real surprise will be whether he forgoes any suspense and names himself off the top or draws the show out and waits to be the last selection. He finished 13th in final qualifying and won his only start this fall two weeks ago at the Zozo Championship.

If there were any lingering concerns about his post-Masters swoon or his offseason knee surgery, he quickly quieted them with his commanding victory in Japan against a deep field and under difficult conditions.

Hale Irwin has been the only playing captain at the Presidents Cup when he pulled double duty at the 1994 matches, but in this case it doesn’t seem either historic or contrived for Tiger to name himself. Els is correct that Woods really doesn’t have a choice. Tiger’s play over the last 15 months more than justifies the pick and, most importantly, the players who have already qualified for the U.S. team want this captain to be of the playing variety.

There’s also the novelty that this year’s Presidents Cup might be the only opportunity for a playing captain.

When Woods was named this year’s captain in March 2018, the PGA Tour also announced a format change that reduced the number of team sessions a player must play before Sunday from two to one. For Woods that’s built-in load management.

Just south of getting his captain’s picks correct the primary challenge during the matches, either at a Presidents Cup or Ryder Cup, is crafting the proper pairings. This job is magnified at the Ryder Cup where the first two days include two sessions each. At the Presidents Cup, only Saturday includes an afternoon session which means that Woods would likely skip the morning frame in order to focus on the afternoon pairings.

“[At the Presidents Cup] we submit our pairings post-round, in the Ryder Cup it’s not like that. You have to figure out, probably 12 to 13 holes into the match who is going to go back out in the afternoon,” Woods said. “If you’re a playing captain you couldn’t figure out who is going in the afternoon if you were playing in the morning. You’d have to rely on your vice captains to submit [the afternoon line-up] or have your vice captains give you a bunch of information while you’re playing and you still have to figure out how to win your match, that would be a lot to handle.”

At Royal Melbourne, Woods will have no such issues. Depending on how he feels and how his team is performing, the captain will have the ultimate flexibility of playing once or twice before Sunday and compartmentalizing his duties as player and captain.

It’s the kind of luxury a Ryder Cup captain simply doesn’t have and why this year’s matches are likely the only chance for Woods, or any other captain, to pull double duty.

“As a captain, no. As a vice captain you could probably do it,” Woods said when asked if he could envision ever seeing a playing captain in the Ryder Cup. “As a playing captain now, with the amount of responsibilities and trying to get pairings submitted for the afternoon sessions and all that, it’s just gotten so much more complicated compared to what Arnold [Palmer] had when he played. You just couldn’t do it now.”

When Woods was named the captain of this year’s team, he envisioned it marking a new chapter in his career as he came to grips with the uncertainty of his competitive future. Nearly two wildly successful years later, the decision has only added a twist to an ongoing chapter.

“If I do play one of the things I’ve thoroughly enjoyed over the last couple years [as a vice captain] is listening in over the earpiece,” Woods said. “The stuff we say is priceless.”

Woods will select himself tonight and savor this rare opportunity to enjoy both, his earpiece and his spot in the lineup.

Toss India chose to bowl v Bangladesh

India have chosen to bowl in the second T20I in Rajkot. Rohit Sharma, playing his 100th T20I, expected dew to set in later in the evening and make batting easier on a hard surface with a few cracks on it. Mahmudullah, the Bangladesh captain, said he would have preferred to chase too.

Both teams named the same XIs that took the field for the first T20I in Delhi, which Bangladesh won by seven wickets.

India have been far better at chasing than at setting and defending totals in T20Is in recent months. Since the start of 2018, they have a 12-3 record while chasing, and a 7-7 record while batting first.

India have been aware of their issues while batting first. They chose to bat first in Bengaluru against South Africa recently, with their captain Virat Kohli saying the team wanted to "push ourselves out of our comfort zone" in the lead-up to next year's T20 World Cup.

Rohit, standing in for Kohli for this series, acknowledged the need to improve while batting first, but said the immediate priority was to win this game, given India are behind in the series.

India: 1 Rohit Sharma (capt), 2 Shikhar Dhawan, 3 KL Rahul, 4 Shreyas Iyer, 5 Rishabh Pant (wk), 6 Shivam Dube, 7 Krunal Pandya, 8 Washington Sundar, 9 Deepak Chahar, 10 Khaleel Ahmed, 11 Yuzvendra Chahal

Bangladesh: 1 Liton Das, 2 Mohammad Naim, 3 Soumya Sarkar, 4 Mushfiqur Rahim (wk), 5 Mahmudullah (capt), 6 Mosaddek Hossain, 7 Afif Hossain, 8 Aminul Islam, 9 Shafiul Islam, 10 Al-Amin Hossain, 11 Mustafizur Rahman

Shane Bond has registered his interest in becoming England bowling coach, with the role currently vacant following Chris Silverwood's promotion to head coach.

Bond, who is currently filling in for Shane Jurgensen as New Zealand's bowling coach for the final games of the ongoing T20I series, already has several coaching positions around the world. He is Sydney Thunder's head coach, bowling coach at Mumbai Indians, and will be an assistant coach at Southern Brave.

He was previously a bowling consultant for England ahead of the first two Tests of the 2017-18 Ashes series, and said the role would "definitely" be of interest.

"I think you look at everything that's put in front of you, wherever the opportunities come up," Bond said. "There was a massive clearing of the decks after the World Cup and coaches moved not only in the franchise world but in the international world as well.

"I know all the English guys. I caught up with them in Christchurch when they down for their pre-season tournament [T20 warm-up fixtures]. I really enjoyed being with the team and liked the guys.

"Whatever you're doing as a coach, you want something that's going to excite you, hopefully make you better, present a different opportunity - I think you look at everything that comes across your door."

But Bond may prefer to avoid the "grind" of an international role, and instead continue in his various positions on the global T20 circuit.

"The biggest challenge of the international game is the grind of a coach," he said. "Look at England in particular: 300 days a year on the road, it's challenging on family life. Whether it's coaches or players, good management of people is paramount."

Bond, who was capable of bowling at speeds well over 90mph during his own playing career, also backed Jofra Archer to star in the upcoming Test series.

"I think you can see the impact he and someone like Lockie Ferguson had at the World Cup - the two teams who made the final arguably had the two fastest bowlers.

"When you've got bowlers who operate over 150kph [93mph] and can bowl like those two can, then it's never comfortable, particularly when you get down to [the tail]. There's no doubt Jofra's going to have an impact in the Test series coming up."

Meanwhile, the 11 players in England's Test squad who are not playing in the T20 series have arrived in Auckland, where they will train before linking up with the rest of the touring party next week.

The Test specialists will train with Darren Gough, who has been brought in for two weeks as a bowling consultant, and batting coach Graham Thorpe. They begin the tour with a two-day warm-up match in Whangarei on November 12.

Joe Denly continued his recovery at England's T20 nets session in Napier, after being ruled out for the series after straining ligaments in his right ankle. While still not fully fit, Denly had a bat and did some running and fielding in training, and it looks likely that he will be available for selection in the first Test at Mount Maunganui, which starts on November 21.

Denly is likely to bat at No. 3, with Dominic Sibley expected to open the batting alongside Rory Burns in the series, and his return represents a blow to Jonny Bairstow. Bairstow, who is set to return for the final two T20Is after England's defeats in Wellington and Nelson, had been placed on standby as a potential replacement if Denly was not fit in time for the first Test following his own omission from the Test squad, but instead looks likely to miss out.

Sources: Brown scheduled to meet with NFL

Published in Breaking News
Thursday, 07 November 2019 07:02

Antonio Brown is scheduled to meet with the NFL next week concerning accusations of sexually assaulting multiple women, sources told ESPN's Josina Anderson on Thursday.

Brown is eager to present his side and there are teams interested in signing him, pending resolution of the league's wide-ranging investigation, sources told ESPN.

The NFL has yet to interview Brown. The veteran wide receiver was released by the New England Patriots in Week 3 after playing in just one game.

Brown is being investigated by the NFL under its personal conduct policy following a lawsuit filed by his former trainer, alleging she was sexually assaulted on multiple occasions. Brown also was accused of sexual misconduct at his home by an artist who was working there in 2017.

Despite Brown initially tweeting Sept. 22 that he "will not be playing in the NFL anymore," sources told ESPN's Jeremy Fowler last month that Brown hopes to have his playing status cleared up before signing with an NFL team.

NFL teams appear to be waiting for the league's findings before signing Brown. Sources told ESPN's Adam Schefter on Saturday that the Seattle Seahawks had been doing their due diligence on Brown prior to the team signing Josh Gordon, and that quarterback Russell Wilson was pushing for the team to sign Brown.

Brown's agent, Drew Rosenhaus, said there are "a few teams that are very interested in signing Antonio once this process is over."

On Sept. 20, the NFL released a statement that said Brown would not be placed on the commissioner's exempt list while he is a free agent but warned, "If he is signed by a club, such placement may become appropriate at any time depending on the status of the investigation."

Brown has played in only one game this season -- Week 2 against the Miami Dolphins. He was released by the Oakland Raiders before the season and by the Patriots before Week 3, after it was made known that he sent text messages to the artist accusing him of misconduct.

Brown has filed eight grievances against the Raiders and Patriots, a source told ESPN's Dan Graziano. Brown is seeking $39.775 million in lost salary, bonuses and guaranteed money.

If someone asks you to name the best quarterback to never win a Super Bowl, the answer is clear. Dan Marino was one of the greatest signal-callers in NFL history, but after losing to the 49ers in Super Bowl XIX at age 23, he never made it back to the biggest stage. The Dolphins would be outscored 60-24 in their two remaining conference championship appearances before Marino eventually retired after the 1999 season.

If I were to ask you about the best quarterback to never make it to a Super Bowl, though, the answer might not be quite as obvious. Plenty of passers have sneaked in for at least one championship game, even if guys like Mark Brunell only made it as backups who didn't take any snaps during the game. The thought was inspired by Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers, who is playing Thursday night, and indeed has made it onto my list.

To create the list of the 10 best quarterbacks to never make it to a Super Bowl, using skill as a measure isn't enough. Time matters too. A quarterback who is above average for 10 years probably has a better shot of making it to a Super Bowl than a signal-caller who is even better, but lasts for only five seasons.

My determining factor for candidates was to find the passers who had played well enough over the largest number of seasons to push their teams into the Super Bowl. To be more specific, I looked at quarterbacks who arrived after the merger and the seasons where they were the primary starter for their respective team(s).

To figure out whether a quarterback played well enough to win a Super Bowl, I used Pro Football Reference's indexed version of adjusted yards per attempt, or AY/A+. AY/A improves on passer rating by weighting touchdowns and interceptions more accurately. AY/A+ then indexes the stat to the league average, so we can compare quarterbacks across eras.

The indexing scale makes it so that a 100 AY/A+ is exactly league average, which seems like a good baseline for me. There are certainly quarterbacks who have won Super Bowls without a 100 AY/A+ -- Trent Dilfer posted a 93 AY/A+ with the Ravens in 2000 before being carried by their dominant defense to a Super Bowl victory -- but a league-average season is a reasonable baseline for a quarterback holding up his end of the bargain. We'll rank these quarterbacks, then, by how many times they posted an AY/A+ of 100 or better while they were their team's primary starter.

Honorable mentions

As I mentioned, there are several passers who only made it to the Super Bowl as backups, including Brunell, Bernie Kosar and Alex Smith. Danny White won a ring while he was Dallas' punter, years before he took over as the starting signal-caller. We could include those quarterbacks, but since they actually suited up for the championship (and several of them won rings), it doesn't seem reasonable to put them in the same grouping as the 10 quarterbacks below.

There are plenty of players who didn't accrue enough seasons as an above-average passer to make the list. Modern-day stars such as Andrew Luck, Carson Palmer and Matthew Stafford all narrowly came up short, as did veterans such as Steve DeBerg, Trent Green and Bert Jones. The last guy off of the top 10, strangely enough, was recently resurfaced Falcons backup Matt Schaub. Schaub posted six above-average seasons as his team's primary starter at quarterback, and if that doesn't seem particularly impressive, consider that about half of the quarterbacks who pulled that off made it to at least one Super Bowl.


10. Jeff Blake (1992-2005)

It's not hyperbole to suggest that Blake is the most productive quarterback the Jets have drafted since Joe Namath. While close competition Ken O'Brien spent his entire career with the team, Blake threw just nine passes for Gang Green before making his way to the Bengals. He sneaks onto this list by virtue of a handful of seasons in which he started either exactly 10 (2002) or 11 (1997, 2000) games. I wouldn't fault you for preferring one of the near-misses I mentioned in the introduction to the East Carolina product.

When you put Blake out there, though, you generally got slightly above-average performance. Blake posted an AY/A+ between 102 and 108 in each of his first seven seasons as his team's primary starter. The problem is that he didn't typically get that same sort of support from his defense. Over his eight years as a primary starter, the average rank for Blake's defenses in points per game was 24th. He even managed to catch the one Ray Lewis-era Ravens defense that was disappointing, when Lewis missed 11 games during the 2002 season.

Closest trip to the Super Bowl: 2000. The one time Blake did link up with an above-average defense was 2000, when he joined the Saints. Blake started 7-4, only to break his foot and miss the remainder of the season. Aaron Brooks took over and led the Saints into the postseason, where they upset the defending champion Rams before losing to the Vikings in the divisional round. This was Blake's only trip to the playoffs.


9. Randall Cunningham (1985-2001)

One of the most dynamic quarterbacks of his era, Cunningham helped inspire the next generation of quarterbacks. He took a staggering amount of punishment in an era in which quarterbacks -- particularly running quarterbacks -- didn't have the same protections those same passers have today. Cunningham posted a scarcely believable 25.6% sack rate in 1986, but his ability to extend plays and outrun the league's best pass-rushers made him an incredibly valuable weapon.

A healthy Cunningham was usually enough to push a team to the postseason. He started 12 or more games just seven times in 16 pro seasons, but those teams went a combined 68-35-0, with Cunningham posting a .500 or better record in each of those campaigns. Despite his success, though, he won just one of his five playoff starts with the Eagles. After moving to Minnesota in 1997, he took over for Brad Johnson in December and led a comeback victory over the Giants in the wild-card round, only to lose to the 49ers the following week.

Closest trip to the Super Bowl: 1998. The following season, Cunningham took over as the Vikings' starter. Buoyed by the addition of first-round pick Randy Moss, Cunningham went 13-1 and led one of the most devastating offenses in league history to the NFC Championship Game. The Vikings led Atlanta 27-20 with 2 minutes, 11 seconds left and were about to seal the game with a 38-yard field goal by Gary Anderson, who had made 122 consecutive kicks over two years. He pushed his attempt wide. The Falcons subsequently tied the score in regulation and won it in overtime.


8. Jay Cutler (2006-17)

The presence of Cutler on any top-10 list will invariably get some people angry, but while he became a punchline, he delivered six above-average seasons as a starter by our definition. Unfortunately, two of those seasons came in Denver with defenses that ranked 28th and 30th in points allowed. Cutler had a chance to make the postseason in 2008, only for his defense to allow 289 rushing yards and five touchdowns in a 52-21 blowout loss to the Chargers. Cutler, then 25, made his first and only trip to the Pro Bowl.

Traded to Chicago the following offseason after feuding with new coach Josh McDaniels, Cutler bounced right above and below the league-average mark across seven-plus seasons as the Bears' starter. Only one of those seasons delivered a playoff run (2010), although the Bears came within a fourth-down Aaron Rodgers conversion of making a second trip in 2013. By default, it was Cutler's best shot at a title ...

Closest trip to the Super Bowl: 2010. After comfortably handling the Beast Quake Seahawks at home, Cutler was one home victory against the Packers away from a trip to the Super Bowl. It didn't go well. He suffered a knee injury during the first half and struggled, going 6-of-14 for 80 yards with an interception. He tried to gut it out on the opening drive of the second half before spending the rest of the day on the sideline with what would later be diagnosed as a sprained MCL.

Despite teammates such as Brian Urlacher coming to Cutler's defense, the languid quarterback was inexplicably criticized for standing on the sideline to support his team. A healthy Cutler might have been able to win this game and go to the Super Bowl, which would have changed the entire complexion of his career.


7. Jeff Garcia (1999-2009)

Recruited out of the Canadian Football League, a 29-year-old Garcia started his career by taking over for an injured Steve Young in the final days of the 49ers' dynasty. Garcia then made the Pro Bowl in each of his first three seasons as a starter with the Niners before beginning the itinerant phase of his career. The 6-foot-1 Garcia started games for four different teams in four seasons, hooking up as the West Coast quarterback du jour for Bill Walsh disciples such as Steve Mariucci (Lions), Andy Reid (Eagles) and Jon Gruden (Buccaneers). He came off the bench to lead a middling Eagles team to the playoffs at age 36 in 2006 and then followed that with a Pro Bowl season for the Bucs the next season.

Garcia started playoff games in four seasons, with each of his two wins coming against the Giants. He threw for 331 yards and contributed four touchdowns in a 39-38 thriller against the Giants during the 2002 playoffs, although it was overshadowed by the game's chaotic final play.

Closest trip to the Super Bowl: 2006. The 49ers were blown out by the eventual Super Bowl champion Bucs the following week in 2002. Garcia would get his next playoff victory with the Eagles in 2006, beating the Giants 23-20. The Eagles faced the Saints the following week in the divisional round, but after Philly failed to convert on a third-and-1 from the 43-yard line when it was down six points in the fourth quarter, it kicked a field goal and didn't score again. The Giants finally got their revenge on Garcia by beating his Buccaneers in the wild-card round the following season, which was Garcia's final playoff appearance.


6. Jim Everett (1986-97)

Originally drafted by the Oilers with the third overall pick to presumably replace Warren Moon, Everett wasn't able to come to terms on a contract with Houston and was shipped off to the Rams. The Purdue product quickly took over as the starting quarterback and spent eight years in Los Angeles before moving to New Orleans, where he spent three years starting for the Saints.

Everett was generally an above-average quarterback, although he's probably best remembered now for brawling with TV host Jim Rome in the early days of ESPN2. The problem was that his defenses rarely returned the favor. In Everett's 10 years as his team's primary starter, he played with just one above-average defense by scoring average. Six of his 10 seasons as a starter came attached to a defense that ranked in the bottom six in points allowed per game.

Closest trip to the Super Bowl: 1989. Everett started playoff games in three seasons, but after losing the opener in 1986 and 1988, his defense finally showed up in 1989. The Rams won on road trips east against the Eagles and Giants in games in which the defense allowed a total of 20 points. In the NFC Championship Game, though, the defense finally gave out in a 30-3 blowout against the 49ers. Everett didn't offer much help, as he was 16-of-36 for 141 yards with three interceptions. Despite the 6-foot-5 Everett being only 27, this was his final postseason appearance.


5. Jim Hart (1966-84)

Hart, who posted eight qualifying seasons under our measure, turned around his career with the St. Louis Cardinals after the arrival of legendary coach Don Coryell in 1973. He made four consecutive Pro Bowls from 1974 through 1977 for a team that went a combined 38-18 over that time frame. Despite posting three 10-win seasons in a row in an era in which teams played only 14 games, though, Hart failed to win a single playoff game during his time as a starter. Two legendary defenses -- the mid-'70s Vikings and Rams -- stopped Hart in his tracks with divisional-round losses.

Closest trip to the Super Bowl: None. Hart's Cardinals never really came close to Super Bowl contention, even if they were one of the league's best regular-season teams for several seasons under Coryell. Cutler shows up as one of Hart's most comparable quarterbacks on Pro Football Reference, and while Hart's success was more concentrated, that might be a good on-field comparison.


4. Tony Romo (2003-16)

The famously snakebitten Romo spent three full years on the Dallas bench after signing with the team as an undrafted free agent, but after Bill Parcells refused to trade Romo to former Cowboys passing-game coordinator Sean Payton after the latter took over as Saints coach, Romo took over the starting job at age 26 and immediately emerged as one of the league's best quarterbacks. He posted only one sub-.500 season as the Cowboys' starter, a six-start campaign in 2010. He was always good and occasionally great before injuries and the emergence of Dak Prescott led to Romo's retirement in 2017.

Of course, some subset of the Cowboys' fan base simply couldn't forgive Romo's playoff failures. During the 2006 season, Romo -- still serving as the team's holder after starting the season as the backup to Drew Bledsoe -- fumbled away the snap on what would have been a winning field goal in a loss to Seattle. The following year, Romo was criticized for taking a bye-week vacation to Mexico with then-girlfriend Jessica Simpson before the 13-3 Cowboys were upset at home by the Giants. Romo won his first playoff game in 2009 by blowing out the Eagles, only to turn the ball over three times in a 34-3 loss to the Vikings the following week.

Closest trip to Super Bowl: 2014. Romo's final playoff run was likely his best chance at glory. Supported by a devastating running game, he went 12-3 during the regular season. The Cowboys beat the Lions in the wild-card round after the referees controversially reversed a pass interference call on Anthony Hitchens without explanation.

The following week saw the Cowboys dispatched by another controversial call when a fourth-and-2 touchdown catch by Dez Bryant was ruled incomplete on review. The score would have given the Cowboys a 27-26 lead over the Packers with the conversion pending. While Green Bay would have had four minutes to take the lead, a Cowboys victory would have set them up for a rematch against a Seattle team they had beaten at home earlier in the season.

I'm not sure the Cowboys would have made it to the Super Bowl if the referees had ruled Bryant caught the ball, but that replay review was as close as Romo got to glory.


3. Dan Fouts (1973-87)

From one color commentator to another! The most recent time the Chargers won a championship was back in 1963, when Tobin Rote took over for second-year quarterback John Hadl and led an 11-3 Chargers team to an AFL championship. While the franchise has gone 55 consecutive seasons without winning another title, it isn't for a lack of steady quarterback play. In 45 of those 55 years, the Chargers' passing leader has been one of five players: Hadl, Fouts, Stan Humphries, Philip Rivers or Drew Brees. Fouts is a Hall of Famer, Brees is a lock to get in, Rivers might follow him in one day, and Hadl was a six-time Pro Bowler.

Brees ended up as the most productive of the bunch after leaving the organization, and Rivers has hung on for a longer career. Fouts, however, might be the best quarterback in franchise history. I gave him the Quarterback Championship Belt for his three-year stretch in 1979-81, when he led the NFL in passing yards, passer rating and yards per attempt. He was then robbed of the MVP award during the strike-shortened 1982 season, when the nod instead went to kicker Mark Moseley.

After 1982, Fouts struggled to stay healthy, with the Chargers fielding a bottom-four defense by scoring average in four consecutive seasons. From 1978 through 1982, though, he was one of the best regular-season quarterbacks in the league. The playoffs were a different story. In 1979, he threw five interceptions in a 17-14 divisional-round loss to the Oilers, then repeated the feat three years later in a 34-13 loss to the Dolphins. In between, Fouts' Chargers won a memorable epic in the Orange Bowl against the Dolphins, only to leave everything on the field in Miami and get blown out in one of the coldest games in NFL history the following week at Cincinnati.

Closest trip to the Super Bowl: 1980. The closest Fouts ever came to a Super Bowl, then, is his one remaining playoff trip. After throwing for 314 yards and two touchdowns in a comeback win over the Bills, Fouts and the Chargers were four-point favorites in the AFC Championship Game at home against the Raiders. On the third play of the game, the Raiders saw a pass bounce off of one receiver and into the arms of tight end Raymond Chester, who took it to the house for a 65-yard touchdown. Oakland got up 28-7 in the second quarter, and while Fouts was able to lead a comeback to get within one touchdown at 34-27 with 6:43 to go, the Raiders were able to hold the ball for the remainder of the game without needing to punt.


2. Warren Moon (1984-2000)

Moon won five professional championships, but none of them were in the NFL; he was part of a dynasty with the Edmonton Eskimos in the CFL before moving back stateside. As a result, Moon's NFL career didn't begin until he was 28, and after an inconsistent start to his career, the Oilers tried to replace him with Everett. Moon only really emerged as a Pro Bowl-caliber passer in 1988, by which time he was already 32. In making up for lost time, he proceeded to make the Pro Bowl in seven of the ensuing eight seasons.

Even given that his NFL career started late, few quarterbacks had as many chances to make it to a Super Bowl as Moon, who made it to the playoffs six times as the starting quarterback of the Oilers and added a seventh with the Vikings. For all the opportunities and his playoff success in Canada, though, he never made it as far as a conference championship game. He was on the losing side of one of the most famous games in playoff history, when the Bills came back from a 35-3 halftime deficit to win in overtime 41-38.

Each of Moon's seven playoff trips came from 1987 to 1994. He posted an 84.9 passer rating during the playoffs, which was right in line with the 84.2 rating he garnered across the regular season over those years. He was let down at times by a defense that allowed an average of 26 points per playoff game, up from an average of 19.7 points per regular-season contest. The run 'n' shoot scheme the Oilers ran during Moon's best years in Houston came in for criticism, but that was just old-school nonsense. His postseason struggles were a combination of poor timing, subpar defense and the occasional bad game.

Closest trip to the Super Bowl: 1993. The best team Moon quarterbacked was this 12-4 Oilers team, which finished fourth in the league in both points scored and points allowed. The Oilers got a first-round bye and then started with a home game against the Chiefs, whom Moon & Co. had beaten 30-0 in Week 2. The big difference, of course, was that Dave Krieg was starting in September and Joe Montana was back in the lineup by the time January rolled around. A 37-year-old Montana threw for 299 yards and three touchdowns, and while he was picked off twice, Moon was sacked nine times and responsible for five of Houston's seven fumbles. The Oilers broke up their team as a result of the league's new salary cap after the season, with Moon leaving for the Vikings.


1. Philip Rivers (2004-)

There's no quarterback in modern league history, though, who has delivered more above-average seasons without sneaking into a Super Bowl than the man who will make his 229th career start for the Chargers on Thursday night. Rivers has been good enough to snuff out the idea that the Chargers made a horrific mistake by letting Drew Brees leave for the Saints in free agency after the 2005 season. Brees turned out to be the better quarterback, but the Chargers have been blessed with very good quarterback play from the moment Rivers took over.

In turn, he has been repeatedly let down, only at times by himself. There have been injuries and ill-timed mistakes and breathtakingly bad units elsewhere on the roster. While contemporaries Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning have had the breaks go their way during fateful runs in January, Rivers hasn't been able to catch a break.

Take the first playoff game he started, which came in the divisional round of the 2006 playoffs at home against the Patriots. The Chargers led 21-13, and with the Patriots facing a fourth-and-5 on the San Diego 41-yard line with 6:25 to go, Tom Brady threw an interception to Marlon McCree. What happened next seemed preordained for the Patriots: McCree fumbled during the return and handed the ball back to the Patriots with a new set of downs.

The Pats subsequently scored a touchdown and converted a 2-pointer to tie the score. After the Chargers went three-and-out, Brady lofted a third-and-10 pass over highly drafted Chargers corner Quentin Jammer to Reche Caldwell for 49 yards, setting up a lead-taking field goal. Rivers got the ball back and drove the Chargers into field goal range, only for Pro Bowl kicker Nate Kaeding to miss a 54-yard field goal that would have sent the game into overtime.

Special teams misadventures have been a near-constant for the Chargers. Kaeding, who connected on 87% of his regular-season tries for the Chargers, was just 8-of-15 during the playoffs, including an 0-for-3 performance in a 17-14 wild-card loss to the Jets. The 2010 Chargers ranked in the top seven in both offensive and defensive DVOA, only for the one of the worst special teams units in league history to keep San Diego out of the postseason.

Every other quarterback I could find who posted 10 or more above-average seasons as their team's primary starter in the Super Bowl era made it to at least one title game over the course of their career. Rivers has 12 and is likely to hit 13, having posted just one below-average season as a starter along the way. In what could only be considered a stunning development, poor special teams and goal-line mistakes have repeatedly cost the Chargers this season, as their 4-5 record does not include a single loss by more than seven points.

Rivers is a free agent after the season, but it's difficult to imagine him playing anywhere else or slipping much. He feels destined to chuck up terrible-looking perfect passes for years to come without ever making it to the Super Bowl.

Closest trip to the Super Bowl: 2007. I wrote about this postseason several times in my Brees alternate history from 2018, so this might be familiar. Everyone remembers that the Giants eventually slayed the beast and upset the 18-0 Patriots in Super Bowl XLII, but along the way, the Patriots slipped. The Chargers should have been able to take advantage, but they were prevented by a bevy of injuries.

They won the AFC West in 2007 with an 11-5 record, and after beating the Titans at home, they traveled to Indy to face a 13-3 Colts team. As 11-point underdogs, the Chargers pulled off a 28-24 upset when Billy Volek sneaked in a 1-yard touchdown with 4:50 to go. Volek was in, of course, because Rivers went down with a knee injury in the third quarter. It would later become clear that Rivers had torn his ACL, which is a season-ending injury for anyone who isn't Philip Rivers.

Rivers underwent a knee scope during the week and somehow suited up for the following weekend's game against the Patriots, but he wasn't the only one who was beaten up. Superstar running back LaDainian Tomlinson suffered a knee injury in the first quarter of the Colts game, and while he tried to come back for the Patriots game, he tapped out after three touches and spent the rest of the game on the sideline. Star tight end Antonio Gates, playing through a dislocated toe, had two catches on six targets for 17 yards.

Presented with a golden opportunity to beat a team whose star players were compromised, the Patriots laid an egg. Brady went 22-of-33 for 209 yards with three interceptions and a passer rating of 66.4. On a windy day, Brady averaged 3.5 adjusted yards per attempt, the second-worst playoff performance of the future Hall of Famer's career. Randy Moss, perhaps dealing with an ailment of his own, had just one catch for 18 yards.

With an injured Rivers and Tomlinson, though, the Chargers couldn't take advantage of their opportunities. San Diego went 3-of-12 on third down. It made three trips inside the red zone and kicked three field goals inside the 10-yard line, with Kaeding adding a fourth from 40 yards out. Rivers earned the respect of anyone watching him gut through pain, but he went 19-of-37 for 211 yards with two interceptions.

If Rivers is healthy, do the Chargers win that game? We'll never know for sure, but it's certainly plausible. The Chargers would have then been a nightmare matchup for the Giants in the Super Bowl, given that New York struggled mightily against throws to running backs and tight ends. The San Diego defense was also better than New England's by DVOA.

Not only would Rivers have made it to a Super Bowl, he might very well have won the thing. Instead, unless the Chargers can overcome what the ESPN Football Power Index pegs as 0.1% odds of making it to Miami this postseason, Rivers will spend another year watching the Super Bowl on TV.

Debating the NBA's absolute best and worst teams

Published in Basketball
Wednesday, 06 November 2019 12:54

More than five games into the 2019-20 NBA season for every team, which franchises are emerging as the very best and worst?

The Western Conference features the Los Angeles Lakers at the top of the standings, followed by a cluster of strong contenders. Things look about the same in the East, with the Boston Celtics at No. 1.

Which contender has the advantage right now in each conference? Which team appears most likely to end up at the top of the lottery?

Our NBA experts weigh in.

More: Mock draft | Power rankings


1. The best team in the Eastern Conference is ...

Tim Bontemps: The Philadelphia 76ers. Yes, they lost to the Utah Jazz and Phoenix Suns this week, but their defense looks just as imposing as expected, and Joel Embiid has played like an MVP candidate (when he isn't fighting Karl-Anthony Towns). There are still things to sort out -- notably, the lack of shooting -- but this team is the cream of the crop in the East.

Kirk Goldsberry: The Milwaukee Bucks, a true two-way machine. They're 6-2 and lead the NBA in net rating. In the past five games, they've paired the No. 1 offense in the NBA with the No. 10 defense. Although the Sixers' defense is strong, their offensive numbers can't compete with Milwaukee's. Check this out: The Bucks rank first in the NBA in effective field goal percentage and second in turnover rate. Philly ranks 16th and 27th in those key indicators. Milwaukee is a more complete team right now.

Andrew Lopez: The Bucks. Although they dropped a game to the one-loss Celtics, I'm giving Milwaukee the edge. The Bucks have four wins by double digits, and three of those were by at least 17 points. On Wednesday, they held off a tough LA Clippers team, though that was without Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.

Kevin Pelton: The 76ers. When we account for the effects of the Embiid-Towns fight, the Sixers have played the best so far this season. The fallout obviously affected Philadelphia, which went 1-1 during Embiid's suspension, thanks to Furkan Korkmaz's game-winning 3 in Portland. But it also helped the Bucks, who boat raced the Minnesota Timberwolves on Monday with Towns sitting out.

Jorge Sedano: The 76ers. Their size is unmatched, and they make you pay for it. Philly is great on the offensive glass and has averaged 15.3 second-chance points per game. The Sixers' length also helps them generate points off turnovers: They average the second-most points per game off turnovers, and they're seventh in defensive rating. They have the most talent in the East, and it's showing.


2. The best team in the Western Conference is ...

Goldsberry: The Los Angeles Lakers. After their opening loss to their in-arena rivals, they've won six straight. In his postgame interview Tuesday, LeBron James said the team's goal is to have the best defense in the NBA. So far the Lakers' defense looks great behind a resurgent Dwight Howard and a fleet of versatile defenders such as Danny Green, Anthony Davis and James himself. Defense wins championships, and as this group becomes more comfortable with one another, they'll only get better on that end.

Lopez: The Clippers, with Kawhi Leonard. When Leonard plays, the Clippers are 5-1, with the only loss coming to Phoenix. Without Leonard, they dropped a 14-point game to Utah and lost a close one to the Bucks at home.

Pelton: The Lakers. With Howard providing exactly the kind of defense and finishing that the Lakers needed alongside stars Davis and James, the Lakers boast the league's second-best defensive rating. Although that might not continue, the Lakers have plenty of room for improvement on offense if somebody besides Green ever makes a 3-pointer.

Sedano: The Lakers. James looks like he has shaken off the rust he talked about after the opener, and this pairing of two top-five players has certainly paid dividends. Davis is averaging a career-high 11.6 shot attempts within 10 feet of the basket -- and it's by design: Frank Vogel has not been shy about posting up his dynamic superstar. Speaking of Vogel, he deserves a lot of credit for instilling a defensive mindset for his team.

Bontemps: The Clippers. They might not have the best record, but they remain the best team, especially considering that Paul George hasn't played a game yet. As with the Sixers, there are some concerns here. One is a lack of creators offensively, though having Leonard, Lou Williams and eventually George isn't exactly a bad thing.

3. The worst team in the Eastern Conference is ...

Lopez: Poor New York Knicks fans. The Knicks are one of two teams averaging fewer than 100 points per game, and they have a league-worst minus-10.5 net rating. Head coach David Fizdale is still trying to figure out what lineups work, and it figures to be another long season for New York. But RJ Barrett might average 40.0 minutes a game, so there at least will be plenty of time to watch the rookie work.

Pelton: The Knicks. Predictably, the Knicks' excess of power forwards has led to trouble spacing the floor when they play defensive-minded center Mitchell Robinson and trouble stopping anyone when Bobby Portis replaces Robinson in the middle. To their credit, the Knicks have kept playing hard after falling behind early, and Elfrid Payton's return will help their offense. But this team is ill-constructed to win games.

Sedano: The Knicks. This one was easy. Although the Knicks hung tough in a few games early, their inexperienced and mismatched roster has reared its ugly head. New York is ranked 29th on offense, 24th on defense and tied for 27th in pace.

Bontemps: The Knicks. Things have gone just as expected at Madison Square Garden, with only one late comeback against the Chicago Bulls keeping the Knicks from being winless thus far. All of the concerns about the way the roster was put together have been realized, as have the doubts that this team could be competitive. While RJ Barrett has played well -- and his development, in the end, is the most important thing to come out of this season -- it certainly seems like the Knicks are headed for yet another awful season.

Goldsberry: The Knicks, whose 1-7 record includes losses to other cellar-dwellers such as the Orlando Magic and Sacramento Kings. As a group, New York can neither score nor defend, but the big bright spot is rookie Barrett, who is off to a strong start despite being thrown out of the nest. He's leading the team in minutes, points and usage. Unfortunately, he isn't surrounded by much help.


4. The worst team in the Western Conference is ...

Pelton: The Golden State Warriors. The Memphis Grizzlies played their way out of this spot by dropping 137 points on the Timberwolves on Wednesday. The Warriors will surely end up with a better record once they get D'Angelo Russell, Draymond Green and eventually Stephen Curry back. But right now, if you had to play any West team, you'd pick the one that won the conference each of the past four seasons.

Sedano: The Grizzlies. Had the Warriors not won a game recently, I would have considered them for this spot. Same for the New Orleans Pelicans, had they not dealt with injuries. Although the Grizzlies' defense has been solid, their offense has been another story (excluding their hot shooting against Minnesota on Wednesday). Also, they seem to have training wheels on their two young stars, though some of Jaren Jackson Jr.'s time on the bench has been self-inflicted due to foul trouble.

Bontemps: The Warriors. It's hard to believe how much things have changed in a short period of time. Of course, a healthy version of Golden State would never be in this conversation, but here we are: Curry (broken hand) is out for months, and Klay Thompson (ACL) is likely out for the season. That this could be a repeat of what happened to the Spurs 20-plus years ago is another matter; in the short term, that doesn't change what the Warriors face in the present.

Goldsberry: Not the Warriors. Some might indulge in that temptingly hot take, but it's the Grizzlies. Like the Knicks, the Grizzlies have thrown their rookie phenom out of the nest, and like Barrett, Ja Morant looks great. The problem is everything else. The supporting cast couldn't score before Wednesday night's outburst, and they have the worst true shooting percentage in the conference.

Lopez: The Kings. Although this easily could have been the Pelicans and their struggling defense, I'll give them a pass for missing Zion Williamson and dealing with early injuries. Things haven't been as smooth for the Kings, who are the second-worst scoring team in the West and have the second-worst net rating. Sacramento is also bottom-five in points, rebounds and assists per game.


5. The best team in the NBA is ...

Sedano: The Lakers. Sure, some of the defensive success is randomness due to opponent 3-point shooting. What isn't random is their effort and size playing a huge role in how good they've been on that end of the court. Ultimately, the Lakers boast something no other team can: two top-five talents. Generally, talent still wins in this league.

Bontemps: The Clippers, I guess. I look forward to seeing the Clippers and Sixers face off because I think they're the best two teams in the league. But there are several teams -- including the Lakers, Denver Nuggets, Dallas Mavericks, Bucks, Celtics and Toronto Raptors -- that are off to strong starts. This season has so far proved to be as wide-open and fun as promised.

Goldsberry: The Lakers. Not only do they have the most talented superstar duo in the league, they've surrounded it with a competent supporting cast that can shoot and play defense. We weren't saying either of those things about the pre-AD Lakers. If the early returns on defense hold steady and they can stay healthy, this team is built to win it all.

Lopez: The Lakers. LeBron James is engaged and trying to prove to everyone that he isn't washed. Anthony Davis is producing at an Anthony Davis-like level once again. With those two producing while leading the way defensively, the Lakers are the team to beat in the early going.

Pelton: The Clippers. When we factor in Paul George's absence, nobody has started better than the Clippers, who have stayed afloat against a difficult schedule without their second-best player. Slow starts by other West contenders besides the Lakers have made it all the more likely that the Clippers can earn a top-two seed, despite managing Kawhi Leonard's regular-season minutes.

More: Mock draft | Power rankings

Let's turn back the clock a year, when we wrote this same article and included this gem:

Guy most likely to put a team over the top: Patrick Corbin. ... There might be concern about the long-term health of a guy who throws sliders 40 percent of the time, but Corbin has the ability to be the difference-maker for the Yankees, Nationals or Dodgers.

Corbin signed with the Washington Nationals, went 14-7 with a 3.25 ERA and was the winning pitcher in Game 7 of the World Series when he tossed three scoreless innings in relief of Max Scherzer. Corbin still has five years remaining on his six-year, $140 million contract, but with a World Series title in hand, you can argue anything moving forward is gravy.

Who will be 2020's Corbin? Let's preview what might happen this offseason in free agency ...

Guy most likely to sign the biggest deal: Everyone expects Gerrit Cole to easily break David Price's record contract for a pitcher, the seven-year, $217 million deal he signed with the Boston Red Sox in 2016. Cole certainly compares favorably with the best free-agent starting pitchers available over the past five seasons. I would rank him as the best one to hit the market, or at least equal to Scherzer when Scherzer was a free agent after 2014:

Cole (29 years old), 2018-2019: 35-10 W-L, 2.68 ERA, 164 ERA+, 12.1 WAR
Patrick Corbin (29), 2017-2018: 25-20, 3.58 ERA, 124 ERA+, 7.1 WAR
Yu Darvish (31), 2016-2017: 17-17, 3.70 ERA, 125 ERA+, 6.4 WAR
David Price (30), 2014-2015: 33-17, 2.88 ERA, 135 ERA+, 10.5 WAR
Zack Greinke (32), 2014-2015: 36-11, 2.16 ERA, 166 ERA+, 13.5 WAR
Johnny Cueto (30), 2014-2015: 31-22, 2.80 ERA, 137 ERA+, 10.7 WAR
Jordan Zimmermann (30), 2014-2015: 27-15, 3.16 ERA, 122 ERA+, 7.9 WAR
Max Scherzer (30), 2013-2014: 39-8, 3.02 ERA, 133 ERA+, 12.1 WAR
Jon Lester (31), 2013-2014: 31-19, 3.10 ERA, 129 ERA+, 7.7 WAR

Like Scherzer, Cole is a power pitcher with a mostly positive track record for health. He's a year younger than Scherzer, and the fact that Scherzer has gone 79-39 with a 2.74 ERA for the Nationals will only help Cole get that $250 million-plus contract. Pitchers like this are rare, and it's even more rare for them to reach free agency. The Los Angeles Angels are viewed as the front-runners for Cole, although Houston Astros owner Jim Crane vowed to "take a run" at re-signing Cole. Those are empty words when factoring in the rest of the quote to the Houston Chronicle, however: "We don't know if we can get where they want to get." Oh, yes: Scott Boras is Cole's agent.

Guy most likely to be the biggest steal: Hyun-Jin Ryu. I pegged Josh Donaldson in this space a year ago and was tempted to do that again, but Donaldson should get a multiyear deal this offseason. Ryu, coming off a season in which he led the majors with a 2.32 ERA, might nonetheless end up undervalued for several reasons:

• Age and injury issues: He'll be entering his age-33 season and had Tommy John surgery as an amateur in 2004 and then shoulder and elbow injuries as he made only one start in 2015 and 2016.

• His non-elite strikeout rate. Ryu ranked 59th in strikeout rate out of 130 pitchers with at least 100 innings.

• His 5.40 ERA over his final seven regular-season starts, raising his ERA from 1.45 in early August.

Those are the negatives, but I like the positives:

• Ryu's elite walk rate. He had the second-lowest rate among those 130 pitchers. He doesn't beat himself.

• Grounders and soft contact. He ranked 10th in ground ball rate and eighth in lowest average exit velocity. His changeup has become one of the best weapons in baseball and he threw it a career-high 28% of the time in 2019.

• He has actually been mostly healthy the past three seasons, missing time in 2018 because of a groin injury, not an arm issue.

In some ways, the profile is similar to that of Dallas Keuchel, who settled for a one-year deal at midseason in 2019, but he's better than Keuchel and should have more interest. That might or might not come from the Dodgers, who will have plenty of starting pitching options with Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Kenta Maeda, Julio Urias, Dustin May, Ross Stripling and Tony Gonsolin -- and maybe they pursue Cole as well (although the Dodgers have been reluctant to hand out big free-agent deals under Andrew Friedman).

Guy most likely to be the biggest bust: Nicholas Castellanos. Last year, the answer was A.J. Pollock, mostly due to concerns about his injury history and leaving a hitter-friendly environment. Pollock had value because he was the only legitimate center fielder in free agency, but sure enough he got hurt and played only 86 games. He wasn't really a bust, although he was a platoon player by the postseason.

Castellanos likewise has a profile with some big pluses and big concerns. He can obviously hit, coming off his best season in which he bashed 58 doubles and hit .289/.337/.525 -- including a 51-game stretch with the Cubs when he hit .321 and slugged .646. But he's a below-average corner outfielder who doesn't walk much and might get paid based on those two months in Chicago. At $15 million or so per season, he's probably fine for three or four years. But a big annual average deal and more years could be risky for a guy who ends up as a DH in a couple of years.

Guy who helped himself the most in October: Stephen Strasburg is the easy answer, after giving us the best October run we've seen since what Madison Bumgarner delivered in 2014 and then opting out of his current contract. The Nationals are the favorites to re-sign him, and even though he's a Boras guy, maybe Strasburg wants to stay and will sign quickly. With so much starting pitching out there -- Cole, Ryu, Strasburg, Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, Cole Hamels, Jake Odorizzi -- it will be fascinating to see how the dominoes fall and how quickly.

Guy who also helped himself in October: Howie Kendrick. He'll turn 37 next year, but he hit .344/.395/.572 as a part-time player for the Nationals. But as he showed in the postseason, there's a lot of value in this kind of player, even if he's not really a defensive asset. Shouldn't an AL team be interested in him as a player who can DH and fill in a little at first base and second base? Look at some teams' DH production in 2019:

White Sox: .208/.285/.362
Rays: .233/.299/.386
Mariners: .191/.317/.380
A's: .222/.304/.403 (Khris Davis had a bad season)
Blue Jays: .231/.304/.422

Kendrick would be a reasonable, affordable player for the Rays. Of course, he's also still a good fit for the Nationals, maybe as their regular first baseman if Ryan Zimmerman doesn't return.

The guy who hurt himself the most in October: Wade Miley. This is actually more like the guy who hurt himself in September. Miley has a 3.52 ERA over the past two seasons, but he posted a 16.68 ERA in five September starts and was left off Houston's roster in the ALCS and World Series. Before September, he might have been looking at a deal similar to what J.A. Happ received last year -- two years, $34 million, with a third-year vesting option -- but now he might be scrambling to get a one-year deal as he did from the Astros.

Guy most likely to put a team over the top: Anthony Rendon. Cole might seem like the best answer here because we know what a No. 1 pitcher can do in the postseason, but if the Angels are his ultimate destination, they'll have to do a lot more than sign Cole -- and still figure out a way to beat the Astros and Yankees. I'm putting Rendon here because he could end up with the Dodgers, with Justin Turner sliding into a play-all-over guy in his final season of his current deal. Or maybe Rendon signs with the Phillies and proves to be the missing ingredient. Maybe he replaces Donaldson with the Braves. Maybe the Mets -- the Mets! -- make a bold move and give him $200 million. Or maybe he re-signs with the Nationals and they go back-to-back.

The guy every team wants to sign ... except: Will Smith. The left-hander has taken a winding road to becoming one of the best relievers in the game, passing through Anaheim, Kansas City, Milwaukee and San Francisco, with a Tommy John surgery along the way costing him the 2017 season. Over the past two seasons he has a 2.66 ERA with 167 strikeouts in 118⅓ innings and a .195 average allowed. He has been especially dominant against left-handed batters with his fastball/slider/curveball arsenal (.418 OPS allowed) but is also good against righties (.656 OPS). The only red flag is 10 home runs allowed in 2019, but that wasn't an issue before last season. Imagine if the Dodgers or Astros had Smith in their bullpen to face Juan Soto in the playoffs.

So what's the problem? The Giants gave Smith a $17.8 million qualifying offer, so now any team that signs him will lose a draft pick. This probably kills Smith's free-agent market, as we've seen with other relievers in the past such as Craig Kimbrel last year. Smith might have to accept the Giants' offer or, like Kimbrel, wait until after the draft to sign. Maybe the Dodgers or Astros will want him then.

The guy who isn't a perfect fit anywhere: Didi Gregorius. The Yankees nontendered him, and while they could still re-sign him, they can just as easily play Gleyber Torres at shortstop and DJ LeMahieu at second base (with Miguel Andujar returning and moving to first base). Plus, while it might be fair to give him a mulligan for 2019 since he was returning from Tommy John surgery, he did post a .276 OBP, and as he has gotten bigger and stronger, his range in the field has diminished.

So who wants him? Barring unforeseen trades, all of last year's playoff teams are set at shortstop -- the Brewers are maybe the one exception, depending on whether they still want to live with Orlando Arcia's bat. Other teams such as the Mariners (J.P. Crawford) and Royals (Adalberto Mondesi) have young players who need to play, and others such as the Giants (Brandon Crawford) and Rangers (Elvis Andrus) have veterans under contract. Would the Orioles or Tigers want him, still early in their rebuilding years? It's going to be a tough market for Gregorius, and he might even have to move off shortstop to get a full-time gig.

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