ElShorbagy brothers to clash after Marwan saves four match balls against Raphael Kandra
By MATT COLES – Squash Mad Correspondent

Egypt’s Raneem El Welily is into the semi finals of the Oracle NetSuite Open 2019 after knocking out the defending two-time champion Sarah-Jane Perry in straight games on the glass court at the spectacular Embarcadero Plaza in San Francisco.

The pair had met ten times on the PSA World Tour, with their last meeting being that final in San Francisco in 2018, where Perry won an epic 57 minute battle 3-2. This clash started in a tight fashion, with neither player giving an inch.

It would be the World No.1 that would go on to take it 11-8, though, after reeling off a string of points in the latter stages of the game. From the start of the second game, it looked as if it would be finished in an instant, as El Welily took the first four points with consummate ease.

However, Perry fought back to take a 7-5 lead, only for the Egyptian to go on another run of four straight points. She went on to take the victory and avenge her defeat from this exact court a year ago.

“It just shows how strong the women’s tour is. Everyone is such a strong contender to win every tournament and everyone has chances to win,” El Welily said.

“I had to be prepared today because SJ is never an easy match, but I am glad it was 2-0. I almost lost that second game but I recovered well to get off in two.

“The court is a little dead so hitting it hard is one way to get it to the back. It is not the only way but this is what I tried to do today and I am glad it worked.

“I love it [San Francisco]. It is absolutely fantastic and the atmosphere here is amazing as always. The weather has also been great since we arrived as well!”

El Welily will face India’s Joshna Chinappa in the semi finals on Sunday, after she got the better of New Zealand’s World No.6 Joelle King in three games. Chinappa and King both train in England, at the Elite Squash Academy in Bristol.

King ran out into an early lead, taking the first five points. However, Chinappa fought back, and she eventually took the first game 11-9. Once again, the Kiwi constructed an early lead in the second, but this time she held on to take it 11-6 to send the match into a decider.

The World No.13 came out fighting in the third, and she would go on to take the victory with relative ease, restricting King to just three points, as she booked her place in the semi finals.

A delighted Chinappa said: “It is great to have home support wherever I play, and especially here, it is the most support that I have ever had playing overseas so I have to thank them for supporting me. I really appreciate it!

“I am now training with Hadrian Stiff and having fresh ideas and new things to work on has made the difference for me in the last year or so.

“Joelle also trains in Bristol so we play each other quite often. We have had a lot of big battles in the last eight months and I feel really lucky that I came out on the right side tonight.”

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In the men’s draw, Egypt’s World No.2 Mohamed ElShorbagy is through to the last four of the tournament after defeating Australia’s Ryan Cuskelly in straight games.

The pair had met five times previous on the PSA World Tour, with both players having won one of the previous two encounters, while the Egyptian had the 4-1 advantage.

Cuskelly had beaten the tournament’s No.1 seed at the Tournament of Champions in January 2018, and ElShorbagy had studied that match to get the upper hand over the left-hander. The Egyptian came out firing, winning the first five points, and although the Aussie tried to fight back, ‘The Beast’ had too much power and took the first game 11-5.

The World No.20 tried to fight back in the second game, and went out into an early lead, but it was not to be, as ElShorbagy came firing back to take the victory in just 20 minutes.

“He is a great player, he hits the ball really nice and at the Tournament of Champions when he beat me, he played such unbelievable squash to beat me,” ElShorbagy explained.

“There are times when you lose matches because you have not played very well, but there are also times when you lose matches because your opponent has got the right tactics. I had to study that match to work out what happened, so I am happy that I was able to beat him today.

“Me and Marwan played each other in Shanghai, we have played each other so much. We have played against each other in so many venues, but this will be the first time we play against each other in this venue and I hope it will be a good match.”

The World No.2 will now face younger brother Marwan ElShorbagy in the last four in San Francisco, after the ‘Jackal’ overcame Germany’s Raphael Kandra in a thrilling encounter, as he saved four match balls in the deciding game before taking the victory. 

Kandra himself faced match ball down in the second but saved it with a dazzling drop shot into the nick after the ball had landed in mid-court.

All three games were tight, and the talented Kandra will be disappointed at failing to land another big result after gaining his first victory over fellow German Simon Rosner in the previous round. 
 
Oracle NetSuite Open 2019, Embarcadero Plaza, San Francisco, USA.

Men’s Quarter Finals (Top Half):
[1] Mohamed ElShorbagy (EGY) bt [8] Ryan Cuskelly (AUS) 2-0: 11-5, 11-6 (20m)
[5] Marwan ElShorbagy (EGY) bt Raphael Kandra (GER) 2-1: 12-10, 10-12, 13-11 (45m)

Women’s Quarter Finals (Top Half): 
[1] Raneem El Welily (EGY) bt [5] Sarah-Jane Perry (ENG) 2-0: 11-8, 11-8 (21m)
[8] Joshna Chinappa (IND) bt [4] Joelle King (NZL) 2-1: 11-9, 6-11, 11-3 (35m)

Men’s Quarter Finals (Bottom Half, today):
[4] Miguel Rodriguez (COL) v Alan Clyne (SCO)
[6] Joel Makin (WAL) v [2] Tarek Momen (EGY)

Women’s Quarter Finals (Bottom Half, today):
[3] Nour El Tayeb (EGY) v [6] Amanda Sobhy (USA)
[7] Tesni Evans (WAL) v [2] Camille Serme (FRA)

Men’s Semi Finals (Bottom Half, Sunday 29 September)
[1] Mohamed ElShorbagy (EGY) v [5] Marwan ElShorbagy (EGY)

Women’s Semi Finals (Bottom Half, Sunday 29 September)
[1] Raneem El Welily (EGY) v [8] Joshna Chinappa (IND) 

Report by MATT COLES (PSA). Edited by ALAN THATCHER.

Pictures courtesy of PSA 

Wales defence coach Shaun Edwards has told his players that Sunday's World Cup match against Australia is one they will remember for the rest of their lives.

Captain Alun Wyn Jones will become Wales' record cap holder in Tokyo when he plays his 130th Test for his nation.

Jones said there had been blood spilled in training this week and Edwards admitted there has been an extra "edge" in the build-up to the Wallabies clash.

ROSSBURG, Ohio – Tossing fear out of the cage on his way out to qualify Friday night, Kevin Thomas Jr. ripped off a lap around Eldora Speedway good enough to give him the pole for Saturday’s USAC Silver Crown Series season finale.

Driving the Chris Dyson Racing No. 9, Thomas toured the legendary half-mile dirt oval in a lightning-quick 16.054 seconds (112.122 mph). He was the final car among the 27 entrants to post a qualifying time Friday night.

The qualifying session began near midnight, after a rain shower following World of Outlaws hot laps delayed the proceedings for more than an hour.

Thomas will have nothing but clean track in front of him on Saturday evening when the 38th annual 4-Crown Nationals presented by NKT.tv goes green at Eldora, as he chases his first Silver Crown victory in his debut ride for team owner Chris Dyson.

Thomas will have a familiar face alongside him, as Jason McDougal – who served as Thomas’ roommate when he first moved to the Indianapolis area – will start on the front row alongside his friend and mentor.

McDougal, fourth from the end in the qualifying order, was just .016 seconds behind Thomas’ fast lap with a time of 16.070 seconds (112.010 mph) behind the wheel of the No. 56 Foxco Racing entry.

Driver points leader Kody Swanson, the first car out to qualify, ended up third fastest over the team he’s chasing in Nolen Racing’s pursuit of the owner’s title – the No. 6 Klatt Enterprises car of Brady Bacon.

Justin Grant completed the fast five for Hemelgarn Enterprises, followed by Chris Windom, Chad Kemenah, Kyle Robbins, Ronnie Wuerdeman and C.J. Leary.

Swanson will officially clinch his fifth Silver Crown driving title Saturday night by presenting his Nolen Racing No. 20 on the feature grid for competition. If Bacon finishes fourth or better, the Klatt team will lock up the owner’s championship.

PRELIMINARY RESULTS: USAC Silver Crown Champ Car Series; Eldora Speedway; Sept. 27, 2019

Qualifying: 1. #9 – Kevin Thomas Jr., 16.054; 2. #56 – Jason McDougal, 16.070; 3. #20 – Kody Swanson, 16.176; 4. #6 – Brady Bacon, 16.250; 5. #91 – Justin Grant, 16.321; 6. #17 – Chris Windom, 16.366; 7. #15 – Chad Kemenah, 16.445; 8. #7 – Kyle Robbins, 16.483; 9. #33 – Ronnie Wuerdeman; 16.523; 10. #10 – C.J. Leary, 16.548; 11. #97 – Tyler Courtney, 16.562; 12. #18 – Travis Welpott, 16.992; 13. #40 – David Byrne, 17.048; 14. #123 – Jimmy Light, 17.074; 15. #53 – Steve Buckwalter, 17.078; 16. #66 – Bill Rose, 17.094; 17. #57 – Dallas Hewitt, 17.138; 18. #47 – Austin Mundie, 17.143; 19. #78 – Eric Gordon, 17.192; 20. #16 – Austin Nemire, 17.272; 21. #24 – Mike Haggenbottom, 17.279; 22. #34 – Terry Babb, 17.378; 23. #43 – John Heydenreich, 17.448; 24. #81 – Shane Cottle, 17.456; 25. #39 – Matt Goodnight, 17.569; 26. #31 – Dave Berkheimer, 18.941; 27. #54 – Matt Westfall, NT.

ROSSBURG, Ohio – Logan Schuchart told World of Outlaws NOS Energy Drink Sprint Car Series pit reporter Blake Anderson prior to Friday night’s feature that he was “tired of finishing second” at Eldora Speedway.

Schuchart did something about that weariness by leading all 30 laps to win the BeFour The Crowns Showdown at the Tony Stewart-owned half-mile dirt track, doing so in commanding fashion.

The Hanover, Pa., native swept the night en route to his eighth World of Outlaws win of the season, setting the overall fast time in qualifying, winning his Drydene heat race, topping the DIRTvision Fast Pass Dash and then going from wire to wire to reign victorious come feature time.

That feature actually finished up during the early hours of Saturday morning, after a rain delay following the conclusion of hot laps slowed up the proceedings for two and a half hours before racing resumed.

None of that was of any consequence to Schuchart, however. His Shark Racing-prepared No. 1s was bullet-quick all night long, and the driver inside was wheeling it with a bit of a chip on his shoulder.

“Man, we just came here with the attitude that this place owed us one,” said Schuchart, who finished second to Brad Sweet in July’s Kings Royal before tasting victory this time around. “It was kind of rough watching those videos (on the track big-screen TV) earlier. I walked up and was talking to guys … my mom (Dana), Bill (Klingbeil, Schuchart’s father-in-law) and everybody and it just stung to watch that video over and over again. It’s not like I haven’t watched it enough the last few months.

“That loss is still going to sting for a while, but we definitely came back hungry. This car was a rocket ship tonight.”

Schuchart’s victory, the second of his career at Eldora, tied him with David Gravel for the third-most on the World of Outlaws tour this season. It’s a career year that still has Schuchart in disbelief, himself.

“This Drydene Performance Products race team and everybody that’s part of it has done amazing things this year. It’s just awesome to see it all,” he noted. “To have a year like this and to win races with the World of Outlaws is very, very tough. So to win eight of them and get another one here at Eldora doesn’t just mean a lot to me, it’s a testament to my hard-working crew and I know it means a lot to them also.”

The roll of Schuchart’s No. 1s was only slowed by a handful of incidents during the 30-lap feature, and after two hard flips – one by Wayne Johnson on the initial start and a second by Brady Bacon with two laps scored – the decision was made to go to single-file restarts for the remainder of the program.

That allowed Schuchart to assert his dominance even more, as he raced away from the majority of his pursuers while Aaron Reutzel fought forward from fourth to become Schuchart’s closest competition.

Reutzel took second from Carson Macedo on the lap-three restart and dogged Schuchart for the rest of the night, cutting the gap down from nearly two second on the seventh revolution to just a half-second by lap 11 as Schuchart found himself pinned in heavy lap traffic.

At halfway, Schuchart led Reutzel, Sheldon Haudenschild, Macedo and Kerry Madsen, but as the race wore into its second half, Schuchart’s car got better and better.

Though Reutzel tried to stay with Schuchart, the driver of the Baughman Reutzel Motorsports No. 87 could only watch helplessly as Schuchart picked off slower cars with virtual ease and pushed the gap back out to 1.174 seconds by the time the twin checkered flags waved over the field Friday night.

Behind Schuchart and Reutzel, Haudenschild hung on to complete the podium, followed by Madsen and Macedo.

Brad Sweet crossed sixth and reclaimed the World of Outlaws point lead by four markers over Donny Schatz, who had to race his way in through the Last Chance Showdown, finished a distant 17th and lost 22 points in the season-long battle for supremacy.

Schatz led by 18 points coming into the Eldora event.

To view complete race results, advance to the next page.

Sri Lanka T20I captain Chamari Atapattu will encourage her team to take a positive approach against Australia and not be overawed by the challenge of facing such a powerful side on their home turf.

The three-match series begins at North Sydney Oval on Sunday with the form book suggesting that the matches will be one-sided affairs with Australia pulling away at the top of tree in the women's game after a 12-month period that has seen them win the T20 World Cup, beat New Zealand, retain the Ashes convincingly and, most recently, go unbeaten in the Caribbean.

But Atapattu has a simple message for her players: "I always told my girls, play freely, play positive."

"We all know Australia are the best team in the world, they've beaten England in the Ashes and West Indies in their home," she pointed out. "We will try to play to our potential and play our normal game. Our preparation has been really good in Sri Lanka, we have good players, some experience and some new players. If we play our normal, free game we have a chance."

There is a bigger picture, too, for Sri Lanka with this tour offering valuable preparation ahead of next year's T20 World Cup in Australia. Sri Lanka are in a tough group for that tournament alongside the hosts, India, New Zealand and Bangladesh.

"This tour is very important for us because of the T20 World Cup in February so it's good preparation, playing the best team in the world in their home conditions," Atapattu said. "We have brought a couple of players to try before the T20 World Cup so it's a good opportunity for us."

Atapattu, along with the experienced Shashikala Siriwardene, who takes over the captaincy for the ODIs which follow in Brisbane, will be key in the batting with Atapattu also picking out 21-year-old Harshitha Madavi as a batsman to watch. "The T20 format is very open. We have a good batting unit. I've played KSL, Big Bash and IPL overseas in this format so have good experience so I share my knowledge with our batters," Atapattu added.

The last time these two sides met was during the 2017 World Cup in England when Atapattu scored a brilliant 178 - an innings which she said "changed my life" - and this is only the second bilateral series between the teams following Australia's 2016 tour.

Australia's vice-captain Rachael Haynes admitted that there is an element of the unknown that they have to deal with. "We don't play a lot of cricket against Sri Lanka so to have a standalone series is unique in its own respect," she said. "The last time we played them was a couple of years ago at the World Cup where Atapattu got a pretty decent hundred against us, so we won't be underestimating them at all."

There is a strong chance that every player in Australia's squad will be given an outing during the three matches with an eye on next year's T20 World Cup. That would mean a debut for Heather Graham, who took 3 for 17 for the Cricket Australia XI in Sri Lanka's warm-up match on Friday which the Sri Lankans won in a Super Over.

"The team showed their hand a little with that in series gone by [against West Indies] and it's good to see players like Erin Burns get an opportunity," Haynes said. "Heather Graham was unlucky to miss out in the Caribbean. Given there is a World Cup coming up, without getting too far ahead of ourselves potentially there will be opportunities for players to play different roles at different stages. That's exciting for our team."

Many outside Notre Dame's program were expecting the Irish to make a statement one way or another in last Saturday's prime-time game at Georgia. Coach Brian Kelly said Monday, though, that this is when his team will truly set its course for the rest of the season -- when it faces No. 18 Virginia on Saturday a week after suffering a devastating 23-17 loss to the Bulldogs.

"I think our team will define who they are this week because they're coming off of a game where they were disappointed in their performance," Kelly said, "so they have a chance to do something about it.

"I have a good feeling that they're going to respond in the right way. Again, it's closer to defining who you are after coming back from a loss than it is any time after a win."

The Irish need to win.

Notre Dame is one of 12 teams with at least a 1% chance to finish in the top four, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, which aims to answer the question: Who will make the playoff on Selection Day? While undefeated teams such as Penn State and Florida aren't stealing any playoff headlines now, they could validate consideration with more impressive victories later. The percentages reflect each team's status heading into Week 5, so the numbers will change continuously with the season.

They could change drastically this weekend if Virginia upends Notre Dame, Penn State loses at Maryland on Friday night, or Clemson stumbles at North Carolina. It's a borderline elimination game for the loser of Washington-USC, each of which already has one loss and didn't make the cut for this list.

The calculations can't factor in the human element of the 13-member selection committee, but each of the past 20 playoff semifinalists have common traits: tough schedules, wins against ranked opponents, Heisman hopefuls, top-15 scoring margins and top-15 rankings in offensive or defensive efficiency, just to name a few.

Here's how these top contenders stack up to the trends of past semifinalists. Trends courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information research:

1. Clemson Tigers

Chance to make playoff: 76.6%
Chance to win title: 24.5%
Trends in their favor: Playoff experience, the No. 2 ranking in defensive efficiency and a Heisman hopeful quarterback in Trevor Lawrence. The Tigers are going to need all three of those things to finish undefeated and overcome an otherwise weak conference schedule. Clemson could claim two victories against SEC teams, though, if it can punctuate its résumé with a road win at rival South Carolina to go along with its defeat of Texas A&M.

2. Alabama Crimson Tide

Chance to make playoff: 70.4%
Chance to win title: 28.4%
Trends in their favor: Nick Saban and Tua Tagovailoa, for starters. Alabama is also No. 2 in offensive efficiency and No. 3 in defensive efficiency. Though the stats have been padded against unranked competition to this point, strength of schedule will improve with games against Texas A&M, LSU and Auburn.

3. Ohio State Buckeyes

Chance to make playoff: 59.1%
Chance to win title: 14.7%
Trends in their favor: The Buckeyes have star power with Justin Fields and J.K. Dobbins, and strength of schedule is also an asset. Their remaining lineup of opponents is ranked No. 10 in the country and includes four ranked teams. Like other past semifinalists, Ohio State has been dominant on both sides, ranking in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency. As elite as Ohio State has been through the first four weeks, it has come mainly at home against unranked competition, but Saturday's trip to Nebraska probably won't be easy. The first real opportunity to make a playoff statement will be Oct. 26 against Wisconsin, the most difficult remaining game on the schedule, according to FPI.

4. Georgia Bulldogs

Chance to make playoff: 46.9%
Chance to win title: 10%
Trends in their favor: Previous playoff experience, the SEC crossover schedule coupled with a victory over Notre Dame, and top-10 rankings in both offense and defense. The Bulldogs pass the eye test, but they also face Auburn and Texas A&M to help compensate for an otherwise weak SEC East lineup. Remember, Georgia was considered by some selection committee members last season as a two-loss team that didn't win the SEC. The Bulldogs have some margin for error, thanks to their win over Notre Dame.

5. Oklahoma Sooners

Chance to make playoff: 36.9%
Chance to win title: 5.3%
Trends in their favor: Previous playoff experience and once again the No. 1 ranking in offensive efficiency, this time under transfer quarterback Jalen Hurts. Last season, OU needed its potent offense to offset its No. 92 defensive efficiency ranking, but this season, the Sooners have shown improvement under first-year coordinator Alex Grinch and are No. 26 defensively through three games. The Sooners need the rest of the Big 12 to step up, as No. 11 Texas and No. 24 Kansas State are their only ranked remaining opponents at this point.

6. LSU Tigers

Chance to make playoff: 33.5%
Chance to win title: 7.1%
Trends in their favor: The road win at Texas gave LSU a head start, as all 20 of the past semifinal participants entered bowl season with at least two victories over AP-ranked opponents. The Tigers still have four ranked opponents remaining, giving them the seventh-most-difficult remaining schedule in the country. Quarterback Joe Burrow is No. 3 in this week's Heisman Watch, and 16 of the past 20 playoff participants have seen a player finish in the top 10 of the Heisman Trophy voting. LSU is also No. 3 in the country in offensive efficiency, and leads the nation with an average of 57 points per game.

7. Wisconsin Badgers

Chance to make playoff: 19.5%
Chance to win title: 2.4%
Trends in their favor: The Badgers have star power in running back Jonathan Taylor, who is No. 4 in this week's Heisman Watch, and they're in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency. What they're missing is a nonconference win against a Power 5 opponent (South Florida, Central Michigan and Kent State), so they need the rest of the Big Ten to produce some ranked opponents, and to take advantage of home field against Michigan State and Iowa. If the Badgers' only loss ends up being on the road to the Buckeyes, they could have a chance to redeem themselves by beating Ohio State for the Big Ten title.

8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Chance to make playoff: 17.9%
Chance to win title: 2.3%
Trends in their favor: There won't be any if the Irish can't beat Virginia this weekend. With wins against Louisville and New Mexico, Notre Dame can't check many boxes right now, aside from having a defense ranked No. 8 in efficiency. ESPN's FPI projects the Irish to win every remaining game, but Notre Dame needs Virginia, USC and Michigan to stay ranked. Last season, undefeated Notre Dame finished No. 4 in ESPN's Strength of Record, which is one of the most statistically accurate correlations to finishing in the committee's top four. Right now, Notre Dame is No. 22 in SOR.

9. Auburn Tigers

Chance to make playoff: 15%
Chance to win title: 2.1%
Trends in their favor: Schedule, schedule, schedule. If the committee were meeting today, it probably would have Auburn in its top four because of victories against No. 13 Oregon and No. 23 Texas A&M. The Tigers are No. 1 in Strength of Record heading into Saturday's home game against Mississippi State. Auburn needs to capitalize on home games against teams it is expected to beat, because ESPN's FPI gives the Tigers less than a 50% chance to win against Florida, LSU, Georgia and Alabama.

10. Penn State Nittany Lions

Chance to make playoff: 7.3%
Chance to win title: 0.7%
Trends in their favor: The Nittany Lions have a nonconference win against a Power 5 opponent (unranked Pitt), and they also have the coaching pedigree, as 17 of the past 20 semifinalists had a head coach that had previously won a conference title. James Franklin's team won the Big Ten in 2016 -- but was outside the top four because of losses to Pitt and Michigan. PSU has a tricky Friday night game at Maryland, and it's going to have to win on the road this season to crack the top four. The Nittany Lions also travel to No. 14 Iowa, No. 25 Michigan State and No. 5 Ohio State.

11. Oregon Ducks

Chance to make playoff: 7%
Chance to win title: 0.6%
Trends in their favor: Oregon leads the Pac-12 and is No. 14 in the country in scoring margin (28 points per game), and 18 of the past 20 semifinalists entered bowl season ranked among the top 15 nationally in average scoring margin. Most of those points, though, came in a 77-6 win over Nevada and a 35-3 victory against Montana. The Ducks are also No. 11 in defensive efficiency, but they probably have to win out (including the Pac-12 title game) to have a shot at the top four. They have a bye week to prepare for the Oct. 5 home game against undefeated Cal. ESPN's FPI favors Oregon to win each of its remaining games. If the Ducks can do that, they'll be right in the mix in spite of the loss to Auburn.

12. Florida Gators

Chance to make playoff: 6.6%
Chance to win title: 0.8%
Trends in their favor: The undefeated Gators haven't earned much, if any, playoff talk, and have been deservedly overshadowed by Georgia in the SEC East, but as far as playoff trends go, they're in better shape than Notre Dame and Penn State. The Gators have the nonconference Power 5 win over Miami in the season opener and are No. 4 in the Strength of Record metric. Florida is also No. 14 in defensive efficiency and No. 12 in remaining strength of schedule.

Just missed the cut: Washington Huskies (0.9%)

Back in June, I shared one of my favorite ways of framing any sort of title race (national, conference, division, Commander-in-Chief's Trophy, etc.): by counting "ifs." How many conditional clauses do you need to turn a team into a contender? The fewer the better.

As far as the national title race was concerned, Alabama and Clemson had the fewest ifs, while other teams with decent title odds (via Las Vegas) required far more. Let's walk back through my summer ifs list, assess how each team has addressed its conditionals and see what it has to tell us about the national title race as a whole.

Acing the test

Alabama (4-0)
Current FPI title odds: 28.5% (preseason: 27.6%)

Preseason Ifs ...
If ... the secondary cuts down on the glitches
If ... Steve Sarkisian can make a difference in the red zone

Alabama has ridden its proven passing game to four easy wins and 50 points per game. The questions we had for Nick Saban's Crimson Tide were more peripheral, and so far the answers we've seen are favorable, if incomplete. New offensive coordinator Sarkisian's red zone offense has been fine, but he won't really have a chance to prove himself until Bama encounters a close game (which might not happen for a while). The secondary, too, has been mostly fine, if slightly conservative.

A new "if" has emerged, however: Due to injury, the front seven is one of the youngest in the country. Freshman linebackers Shane Lee and Christian Harris are each among Bama's six leading tacklers, and four freshman linemen are also contributing. Granted, they're all blue-chippers, but can they avoid the typical young-player glitches when the games really count?

Clemson (4-0)
Current FPI title odds: 24.1% (preseason: 37.1%)

Preseason Ifs ...
If ... there's no hangover
If ... young defensive linemen get up to speed quickly

Clemson put hangover concerns to rest by beating Texas A&M and Syracuse by a combined 65-16. The Tigers ranked third in defensive SP+ last season, lost a ton of ultra-talented contributors up front and currently rank ... second. The rich get richer.

So why have the Tigers' title odds fallen? First, the field has gotten deeper, with Ohio State looking like a major contender. Second, the offense hasn't quite cleared the high bar we set. The run game is ultra-efficient, but the passing game has sputtered: 75th in passing success rate, 63rd in completion rate. Trevor Lawrence has already thrown more interceptions this season (five) than he did in 2018 (four).

So maybe there has been a bit of a hangover on one side of the ball. But the ACC might be even weaker than it was last season, and Lawrence has plenty of time to work out the kinks.

Ohio State (4-0)
Current FPI title odds: 14.9% (preseason: 0.4%)

Preseason Ifs ...
If ... Justin Fields lives up to blue-chip hype ... and doesn't get hurt
If ... the Ohio State run game becomes the Ohio State run game again
If ... the defense suffers fewer catastrophes

With a new head coach and quarterback, it was justifiable to wonder if Ohio State would be full-on Ohio State in 2019. It didn't take us long to find our answer. Fields is very much living up to the hype, the run game is excellent and the defense, so strangely glitchy last season, ranks fifth in defensive SP+, up from 26th in 2018 (the horror!).

On top of all that, the three remaining regular-season opponents in the current SP+ top 25 all have to visit Columbus. All is well.

Really, the only "if" without a complete answer is the "Fields doesn't get hurt" part. He's been running the ball quite a bit -- 28 non-sack carries in four games despite blowouts -- and he's taken six sacks, which isn't a ton but is more than you'd hope from the level of competition.

Wisconsin (4-0)
Current FPI title odds: 7.2% (preseason: 0%)

Preseason Ifs ...
If ... there is at least steadiness at QB
If ... a new offensive line is the same old Wisconsin offensive line
If ... the run defense comes back, too, for that matter
If ... third-and-medium is Wisconsin's friend
If ... the pass rush comes back

Wisconsin had a steep hill to climb to become a true contender. So far, so good. Of the five ifs above, the Badgers get three resounding A-plus grades. Quarterback Jack Coan is completing 77% of his passes and is seventh in Total QBR. The new offensive line has struggled a bit in pass-rush situations but has been good enough in the ground game to rarely face any. And on defense, Wisconsin ranks first in rushing success rate.

The other two ifs could still bite the Badgers in tighter games. They are still just 58th in third-and-medium success rate (better than last season's 110th, at least), and the defense is 46th in sack rate and 106th in blitz-downs sack rate. The secondary has made sure that doesn't matter in the least, but that could change against better passing teams.

Strong passing grades

Georgia (4-0)
Current FPI title odds: 10.7% (preseason: 8.2%)

Preseason Ifs ...
If ... James Coley can make a difference in the red zone
If ... Dan Lanning can dial up pressure
If ... the defensive front is a little less flexible

Georgia handled three lesser opponents by huge margins, then survived a nice home test from Notre Dame 23-17. The Bulldogs' title odds have improved a bit; it would be silly to nitpick too much.

We're going to anyway! We've gotten only resounding, positive answers to one of three ifs: Georgia has been excellent near the goal line.

The defense still has questions to answer. The Dawgs are preventing big plays as well as anyone and are good in the red zone (eighth in points allowed per scoring opportunity) and 10th in overall defensive SP+. But they're still only 52nd in sack rate and 34th in overall havoc rate (total tackles for loss, passes defensed and forced fumbles divided by total plays). Within just the front seven, they are 86th. This is an excellent reactive defense, but can the Dawgs make disruptive plays when they need to?

LSU (4-0)
Current FPI title odds: 7.0% (preseason: 6.4%)

Preseason Ifs ...
If ... Joe Burrow's late-season growth was real
If ... the LSU run game becomes the LSU run game again
If ... Kristian Fulton and Kary Vincent Jr. can get greedy

LSU nearly made the "acing the test" list, but defensive concerns are holding the Tigers back a smidge.

From the original Ifs list: "Linebacker Devin White's production can probably be mostly accounted for by simply keeping sophomores Micah Baskerville and K'Lavon Chaisson healthy." Baskerville and Chaisson have missed two games each, and that appears to be making a difference. LSU is just 38th in defensive SP+ and has allowed seven gains of 30-plus yards (70th in FBS). There are more glitches than expected, even as the cornerbacks (namely Fulton and freshman Derek Stingley Jr.) have combined for 13 passes defensed.

That said, the offense has wiped away most of these concerns. LSU is second in offensive SP+, and it's safe to say that Burrow's late-season growth was very real. Plus, the success of the passing game has created opportunities for LSU runners to thrive.

Oklahoma (3-0)
Current FPI title odds: 5.4% (preseason: 4.2%)

Preseason Ifs ...
If ... the secondary gets more aggressive
If ... the defensive front gets more disruptive
If ... Jalen Hurts shows he can go off script occasionally

Two outta three ain't bad.

OU is creating explosive plays as well as ever. Hurts is averaging 18 yards per completion and 10.8 yards per carry (!), and a trio of running backs is averaging 8.6 yards per carry. Ridiculous.

It's still a mixed bag for the defense, though. Despite a current SP+ strength of schedule ranking of 117th, OU ranks just 48th in success rate allowed and 49th in defensive SP+. That's an improvement over last season, but there are much better offenses to come on the schedule.

The defensive front has indeed been more disruptive -- OU ranks 18th in defensive line havoc rate and 28th in sack rate -- but the secondary is still passive. OU is allowing a 64% completion rate (95th in FBS) and ranks 101st in defensive-back havoc rate. There are probably plenty of high-scoring games on the horizon for the Sooners.

Notre Dame (2-1)
Current FPI title odds: 2.4% (preseason: 3.6%)

Preseason Ifs ...
If ... the red zone offense improves, run game or no run game
If ... the front seven finds a new playmaker
If ... losing WR Miles Boykin doesn't mean losing big pass plays
If ... the run game improves, perhaps dramatically

The Irish offense is outstanding in the red zone (currently 13th in points per scoring opportunity), and the defensive front seven has the playmakers it needs. Check and check.

Sophomore linebackers Drew White and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah combined for just 5.0 tackles last season; this season, they have already combined for 9.5 tackles for loss. And we saw just how well this unit tackles in last week's game at Georgia.

The two other ifs, however, remain unknown. Notre Dame ran the ball well for a while against Louisville but hasn't since, and while Ian Book is averaging a vastly improved 14.3 yards per completion so far, I can't give the Irish full credit here because against a fellow contender in Georgia, Book averaged just 9.5 yards per completion. So these four ifs have produced two resoundingly positive check marks but two areas for lingering concern.

Texas (3-1)
Current FPI title odds: less than 0.1% (preseason: same)

Preseason Ifs ...
If ... Texas can figure out how to run the ball without getting Sam Ehlinger hit so much
If ... big-play blue-chippers can actually make big plays
If ... a super-young secondary is ready to not only hold the fort, but improve
If ... a Tom Herman team can play every game as an underdog

Early developments have been mostly positive for a Texas team that voters liked a lot more than analytics. Longhorns running backs are generating efficiency, and they're benefitting even further from the emergence of a ridiculously efficient receiver in Devin Duvernay (87% catch rate, 67% success rate). UT is also getting a massive big-play boost from sophomore wideout Brennan Eagles (10 catches, 276 yards, four TDs). This has created a far greater level of offensive consistency, and it has helped Texas to play well as a favorite as well as an underdog.

The bad news: That young secondary is getting obliterated by injury. Safeties Caden Sterns and B.J. Foster are both out indefinitely, as are three other defensive backs. The Longhorns are on a bye this week, thankfully, and take on a less-than-amazing West Virginia passing game in Week 6, but Oklahoma looms on the schedule.

Not great, not terrible

Auburn (4-0)
Current FPI title odds: 2.0% (preseason: 0.7%)

Preseason Ifs ...
If ... a reconstructed receiving corps holds up
If ... a freshman quarterback doesn't play like a freshman
If ... the offensive line takes a mulligan
If ... the pass rush gets home

The Tigers have survived two strong tests away from home, beating Oregon by six and Texas A&M by eight. The defense is as unforgiving as ever, and the offense has moved the ball when it absolutely needs to. The receiving corps has produced as hoped.

Unfortunately, the other ifs above don't have particularly positive answers. Freshman Bo Nix has shown an ability to raise his game in key moments, but Auburn still ranks 114th in completion rate and 85th in passing success rate. The offensive line is clearly better but has lots of room for growth. And on defense, the pass rush still lacks: The Tigers are 95th in blitz downs sack rate, and, consequently, 111th in third-and-long success rate allowed.

The Tigers still rank 10th in SP+, but the remaining schedule features four games against teams ranked even higher than that.

Oregon (3-1)
Current FPI title odds: 0.7% (preseason: 1.2%)

Preseason Ifs ...
If ... a young pass rush becomes a good pass rush
If ... Oregon learns to handle success
If ... Justin Herbert turns flashes of brilliance into an actually brilliant season
If ... Oregon starts making an Oregon level of big plays again

What a hire defensive coordinator Andy Avalos has been for Mario Cristobal and the Ducks. Oregon currently ranks fourth in defensive SP+, playing solidly against the run and mostly dominating the pass. Oregon ranks 21st in overall sack rate -- 10th on blitz downs -- despite leaning mostly on young pass-rushers.

The other ifs remain unanswered at best. Oregon responded to a great start against Auburn (up 21-6 after 36 minutes) with a collapse. Herbert has been great against lesser Nevada, Montana and Stanford teams but couldn't make plays late against the Tigers. (He's currently 19th in Total QBR, up only slightly from last season's No. 24 ranking.) The run game isn't producing, and the big-play total is average. The defense is better than anyone could have hoped, but the offense lacks. Can the Ducks find a better rhythm before big games against Cal (Week 6) and Washington (Week 8)?

Florida (4-0)
Current FPI title odds: 0.7% (preseason: 1.2%)

Preseason Ifs ...
If ... late-2018 Feleipe Franks is the permanent Feleipe Franks
If ... Franks has a go-to weapon
If ... the offensive line doesn't regress too much
If ... Todd Grantham's defense tamps down the recklessness a hair

Florida became the only presumed contender to lose its starting quarterback to injury. The Gators have since rallied around Kyle Trask (who's almost perfectly replicating Franks' numbers), but this could still catch up to them. And the offensive line indeed appears to have regressed: Florida ranks 106th in stuff rate, 127th in opportunity rate and 50th in sack rate.

The Gators are still 4-0, though. Van Jefferson has emerged as a nice go-to weapon (16 catches, 232 yards, one touchdown), and a deep, experienced receiving corps is producing. Grantham's ultra-aggressive defensive approach is working, too: UF is eighth in defensive SP+ and sixth in blitz-downs sack rate. There's a lot to like here but also a lot to be wary of. Florida's right where it was at the start of the season, in other words.

Washington (3-1)
Current FPI title odds: 0.1% (preseason: 0.3%)

Preseason Ifs ...
If ... Jacob Eason has developed behind the scenes
If ... UW is no longer atrocious at finishing drives
If ... a new secondary clears a high bar
If ... Chris Petersen finds where he misplaced his close-game karma

The Huskies have won three games by an average score of 48-18 and just trounced a BYU team that was coming off a victory over USC. They are ninth in SP+, and they remain a favorite in the Pac-12 race.

They also managed to lose their only close game, a second consecutive defeat to Cal. In that game, they showed an alarming lack of efficiency. They destroy you if you fall behind schedule, but they can't force you off schedule nearly as well (98th in standard-downs success rate).

Eason also sputtered in the loss. He's completing 73% of his passes and ranks 15th in Total QBR (ahead of Oregon's Herbert), but he took three sacks and threw a bad pick against Cal. If he and Washington play well in the coming games against USC, Oregon and Utah, the Cal loss probably won't matter. But it means everything for now.

See me after class

Michigan (2-1)
Current FPI title odds: less than 0.1% (preseason: 6.8%)

Preseason Ifs ...
If ... Josh Gattis brings some pep and unpredictability to Ann Arbor
If ... Shea Patterson finds a No. 1 receiver
If ... blitz downs are a bit less all-or-nothing
If ... the Big House does its part

The offense has not been pretty. The Josh Gattis Experiment has failed to work so far, while Patterson has leaned primarily on three players: Ronnie Bell, Tarik Black and tight end Nick Eubanks. They've responded with a 50% catch rate and a ghastly 41% success rate.

Don Brown's defense ranks first in blitz-downs success rate allowed and big-play rate allowed and third in blitz-downs sack rate. The problem has come on all other downs. Michigan is just 72nd in overall success rate allowed. The Wolverines got absolutely carved up by Wisconsin and, to say the least, the offense hasn't picked up the slack.

Texas A&M (2-2)
Current FPI title odds: less than 0.1% (preseason: 0.4%)

Preseason Ifs ...
If ... the newbies provide immediate, quality depth
If ... the passing game produces more easy points
If ... the Crew stops getting Wrecked
If ... a new front seven doesn't mean a loss of havoc

Freshman running back Isaiah Spiller is averaging 7.5 yards per carry but averaged only 2.5 against Clemson and Auburn. There are some freshman receivers and defenders in the rotation, but this freshman class probably isn't contributing quite enough. QB Kellen Mond, meanwhile, has gone from averaging 13.1 yards per completion last season to 11.5 this season.

On defense, despite having already played two top-10 teams, A&M has allowed just eight gains of 20-plus yards, eighth in FBS. The Aggies rank just 96th in front-seven havoc rate. Consequently, they are struggling to finish drives when they have the chance; they're 72nd in passing-downs success rate and 85th in points allowed per scoring opportunity.

Nebraska (3-1)
Current FPI title ods: 0.0% (preseason less than 0.1%)

Preseason Ifs ...
If ... the Scott Frost Second-Year Miracle Leap happens twice
If ... Adrian Martinez pulls a McKenzie Milton-style sophomore leap
If ... new go-tos emerge in the skill corps
If ... the run defense goes from outright atrocious to good
If ... a pass rush emerges
If ... the secondary improves dramatically despite losing last season's top three tacklers

Nebraska had top-15 title odds, per Caesars, for the entire offseason, and that was ridiculous and detrimental to any attempt to set more rational expectations.

Martinez is on his way to a good, but not Milton-esque, season. The skill corps is improving, and the defense is better, if still not where it needs to be. Nebraska is up from 39th to 35th in SP+ and is on pace for about seven wins. In a rational universe, that is a solid second season for Frost. But the Huskers should never, for a single second, have been treated like a national title contender.

Miami (2-2)
Current FPI title odds: 0.0% (preseason: less than 0.1%)

Preseason Ifs ...
If ... there's explosive growth at the QB position
If ... the offensive line plays its part this time
If ... the defensive line unearths a new playmaker or two
If ... the punting improves

Miami's defensive line definitely has the playmakers it needs, and the punting has indeed improved. The Hurricanes have clear potential at the quarterback position, too, where Jarren Williams is completing 73% of his passes. But he's been responsible for a lot of negative plays, too, and Miami's rebuilt offensive line has been a train wreck. Miami ranks 128th in sack rate allowed and 127th in stuff rate allowed.

Once behind schedule, the Canes are toast. They are 124th in passing-downs success rate. The negative plays have cost them a game they should have won against North Carolina (and nearly cost them a second against lowly Central Michigan). The future appears pretty bright, but the present is scattered and frustrating.

Week 5 playlist

Here are 10 games -- at least one from each weekend time slot -- that you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both an information and entertainment perspective.

All times Eastern

Friday
No. 12 Penn State at Maryland (8 p.m., Fox Sports 1)
Penn State has looked like both a top-10 and barely-top-40 team at times, and Maryland followed up on two out-of-this-world offensive performances against Howard and Syracuse by scoring 17 at Temple. What's the real version of either of these teams?

Arizona State at No. 15 Cal (10:30 p.m., ESPN)
Look, if you enjoy things like "points" and "general offensive competence," this isn't the game for you. But Cal is unbeaten, and linebacker Evan Weaver (40 solo tackles in four games) is must-see-TV. I'm only slightly exaggerating when I say that Weaver makes every single tackle for Cal.

Early Saturday
Texas Tech at No. 6 Oklahoma (12 p.m., Fox)
You know all the OU storylines, but I'm ready to learn more about Tech, too. The Red Raiders are playing better defense than they have in years, but the offense let them down in a road loss to Arizona. What do they have to offer against the Big 12's kingpin?

Saturday afternoon
Keep an eye on Clemson-North Carolina (3:30 p.m. ABC) just in case Mack Brown's addiction to drama translates against top teams. Assuming it doesn't, here are the three games to flip to instead:

No. 18 Virginia at No. 10 Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., NBC)
Virginia didn't lose to Old Dominion last week, but the Cavaliers thought hard about it. They have the defense to bother Ian Book and Notre Dame, but do they have any sort of offensive hope beyond quarterback Bryce Perkins running 30 times?

No. 21 USC at No. 17 Washington (3:30 p.m., Fox)
At the rate the Trojans are going through quarterbacks, you, dear reader, might get a tryout soon. That said, after last week's physical, exciting victory over Utah, the Trojans head up to Seattle to face a Washington team that just humiliated the BYU team that beat USC a week prior.

Coastal Carolina at Appalachian State (3:30 p.m., ESPN+)
Deep Cut No. 1. Under first-year coach Eliah Drinkwitz, App State is more explosive on offense and much worse on defense. Coastal Carolina, meanwhile, put up a combined 108 points on Norfolk State and UMass. App State's defense is better than those, but this is an influential Sun Belt battle and could get pretty high-scoring.

And if that's not enough to convince you, check out these amazing App State helmets:

#AppState debuting new helmets against Coastal Carolina this weekend, featuring their classic Victory Yosef logo; pic.twitter.com/Gw8sPmtibA

— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) September 26, 2019

Saturday evening
Keep an eye on Ohio State-Nebraska (8:30 p.m., ABC) just in case it isn't the blowout the numbers suggest. But it probably will be, so ...

Mississippi State at No. 7 Auburn (7 p.m., ESPN)
MSU's defense has regressed after losing NFL-caliber playmakers, and the offense has been up and down, first with QB Tommy Stevens, then with freshman Garrett Shrader. Last week's team (which walloped Kentucky) can challenge Auburn; the team from two weeks ago (which lost to Kansas State) gets blown out.

No. 24 Kansas State at Oklahoma State (7 p.m., ESPN+)
Oklahoma State proved its top-30 bona fides in losing by only six points to Texas, and K-State is coming off the Mississippi State victory and a bye. The race for the non-OU spot in the Big 12 title game is going to be immensely exciting, and this game could play a role in it. (It also might eliminate the Pokes from the competition.)

Southern at Arkansas-Pine Bluff (7 p.m., ESPN3)
Deep Cut No. 2. Recently moribund, Arkansas-Pine Bluff frustrated TCU for two-plus quarters to start the season and has since averaged 47 points per game. Missouri transfer Harry Ballard III has looked fantastic. Southern's always solid, though, and if the Southwestern Athletic Conference is going to have a first-time Celebration Bowl participant this season, it might be the winner of this one.

Late Saturday
Washington State at No. 19 Utah (10 p.m., Fox Sports 1)
Last week, Wazzu blew a giant lead to UCLA, and Utah blew scoring chances in a loss at USC. One team will get immediate redemption. It would be just like a Mike Leach team to collapse and then immediately wallop a much better team, but the Utes will probably respond well to last week's missed opportunity.