Football is back, and we're previewing the Week 1 NFL slate. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the keys to every game, a bold prediction for each matchup and final score predictions.
Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a stat to know, and the Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a matchup rating (on a scale of 1-100) and a game projection. ESPN Fantasy's Kyle Soppe and ESPN Chalk's Mackenzie Kraemer hand out helpful nuggets, as well. It's all here to help get you ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let's get into the full Week 1 schedule, starting with an AFC showdown between the Chiefs and Jaguars.
1 p.m. ET | CBS Matchup rating: 75.2 | Spread: KC -3.5 (51.5)
What to watch for: Nobody is really sure what to expect out of the Jaguars' offense under new coordinator John DeFilippo and quarterback Nick Foles. Can the Jags score 30-plus points? That's what it'll probably take to beat the Chiefs, who look just as potent as they were last season. -- Michael DiRocco
Bold prediction:Patrick Mahomes will throw at least two touchdown passes. That might not sound like a big deal for a QB who threw 50 of them last season, but remember the Jaguars were the only team to shut him out in that category in the regular season last year. -- Adam Teicher
Stat to know: Tyreek Hill scored on each of his first two touches of the 2018 season (against the Chargers), a 91-yard punt return and a 58-yard reception. He has a league-high 302 receiving yards in season openers over the past two years, but the Jaguars did limit him to only four receptions for 61 yards in Week 5 last season.
What to know for fantasy: Mahomes posted the best fantasy season ever by a quarterback (417.1 points), but the Jags are the fourth-best defense against quarterbacks since Doug Marrone took over in 2016. Only once last season did a QB go into Jacksonville and score 21-plus points (Carson Wentz). See Week 1 rankings.
Betting nugget: Foles has covered seven straight games as an underdog, including six outright wins. Read more.
Teicher's pick: Chiefs 34, Jaguars 24 DiRocco's pick: Chiefs 31, Jaguars 20 FPI prediction: KC, 58.2% (by an average of 3.0 points)
1 p.m. ET | Fox Matchup rating: 69.6 | Spread: LAR -1 (50)
What to watch for: Don't be surprised if Cam Newton tests his throwing shoulder early with at least two deep throws, probably to Curtis Samuel, to make the Rams play honest. He also won't be hesitant to run. He led the Panthers in rushing in last year's opener. -- David Newton
Bold prediction:Todd Gurley will rush for more than 100 yards and will add a touchdown. He returns to the state where he grew up for the first time as a pro and is coming off arguably his most challenging offseason because of endless chatter about his left knee. -- Lindsey Thiry
Stat to know: Jared Goff led the NFL with 116 completions of 10-plus air yards last season. The Panthers, meanwhile, gave up 16 passing touchdowns of at least 10 air yards in 2018, tied for the third most in the NFL.
What to know for fantasy: Wide receiver Cooper Kupp returns to action after tearing his ACL last season. Kupp caught at least five passes in six of eight games last season and is averaging 1.3 red zone targets per game during his career (seventh best). See Week 1 rankings.
Betting nugget: Super Bowl losers from the previous season are 3-16 against the spread (ATS) in Week 1 the following season since 2000. Read more.
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Ninkovich: Rams win if Cam isn't 100%
Rob Ninkovich and Dan Orlovsky agree that Cam Newton's ankle injury will hold him back, and Aaron Donald will be the X factor for the Rams.
Thiry's pick: Rams 28, Panthers 24 Newton's pick: Panthers 27, Rams 23 FPI prediction: LAR, 51.1% (by an average of 0.5 points)
1 p.m. ET | Fox Matchup rating: 66.3 | Spread: MIN -4 (48)
What to watch for: The Julio Jones-Xavier Rhodes matchup is always popcorn-worthy. A healthy Rhodes limited Jones to two catches for 24 yards in 2017 during one of his best years as a pro. But he is coming off a season riddled with injuries. -- Courtney Cronin
Bold prediction: Miami friends and former Florida State Seminoles Dalvin Cook and Devonta Freeman will each go for 100 rushing yards. But it's Cook and the Vikings who come up with the win. -- Vaughn McClure
Stat to know: Matt Ryan's 4,924 passing yards were third in the NFL last season, but the Vikings gave up only 196.3 passing yards per game -- also third in NFL.
What to know for fantasy: The Falcons have given up the most running-back receptions in each of the past four seasons, and Cook ranked seventh among running backs in receptions last December. See Week 1 rankings.
Betting nugget: Mike Zimmer is 52-29-2 ATS as a head coach, the best mark by any coach in the Super Bowl era (minimum 50 games), including 29-12-1 at home. Read more.
McClure's pick: Vikings 24, Falcons 21 Cronin's pick: Vikings 24, Falcons 20 FPI prediction: MIN, 59.2% (by an average of 3.4 points)
1 p.m. ET | CBS Matchup rating: 53.9 | Spread: CLE -5.5 (45)
What to watch for: The unveiling of the Baker Mayfield-Odell Beckham Jr. passing connection, which has a chance to be among the elite in the NFL, will be reason enough to tune in. How the duo fares in its debut will offer a glimpse of how dynamic this Browns offense can be in 2019. -- Jake Trotter
Bold prediction: The Browns' offense is potent, but it will take time to get rolling in the season opener against a Titans defense that catches Cleveland at the perfect time. Derrick Henry runs for 125 yards and a touchdown. -- Turron Davenport
Stat to know: Henry led the NFL with 585 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns over the final four weeks of last season. That success came from his bruising running style, as he led the NFL with 2.85 yards after contact per rush.
What to know for fantasy: Mayfield was the only quarterback to throw for three touchdowns in Week 16 and Week 17 last season. See Week 1 rankings.
Betting nugget: Cleveland is 0-13-1 outright and 4-9-1 ATS in its past 14 Week 1 games, but it did cover each of its past two season openers. Read more.
Davenport's pick: Titans 24, Browns 17 Trotter's pick: Browns 28, Titans 17 FPI prediction: CLE, 56.6% (by an average of 2.5 points)
1 p.m. ET | Fox Matchup rating: 47.9 | Spread: PHI -10 (45)
What to watch for: The Eagles are anticipating Washington cornerback Josh Norman will shadow Alshon Jeffery most of the game. That's all the more reason for Carson Wentz to target his other outside receiver, DeSean Jackson, who has a history of monster games against his former teams. -- Tim McManus
Bold prediction: Tight ends will do most of the damage in this matchup. The Redskins' Jordan Reed will catch five passes for 70 yards and a touchdown, and Eagles tight end Zach Ertz will continue his domination of Washington with seven catches for 80 yards and a score of his own. -- John Keim
Stat to know: The Eagles are 8-2 in their past 10 season openers, tied for the best season-opening record in the NFL (with the Broncos and Patriots) during that span. Meanwhile, the Redskins have lost five of their past six season openers.
What to know for fantasy: Wentz was one of three quarterbacks to throw for 300 yards and multiple touchdowns against the Redskins last season. See Week 1 rankings.
Betting nugget: Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its past six season openers, and Washington is 1-5 ATS in that same span. Read more.
Keim's pick: Eagles 24, Redskins 13 McManus' pick: Eagles 27, Redskins 17 FPI prediction: PHI, 77.9% (by an average of 11.1 points)
1 p.m. ET | CBS Matchup rating: 31.4 | Spread: NYJ -2.5 (40.5)
What to watch for: Jets running back Le'Veon Bell makes his much-anticipated return to the NFL after sitting out the 2018 season because of a contract dispute with the Steelers. And second-year QBs Sam Darnold and Josh Allen, who are close friends, meet for the second time in what figures to be a long personal rivalry within the AFC East. Darnold leads Allen 1-0. -- Rich Cimini
Bold prediction:Devin Singletary will score two touchdowns. The rookie running back has a role on the ground and in the passing game, and will find his way into the end zone in both capacities Sunday. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques
Stat to know: Allen averaged 10.5 air yards per attempt last season for Buffalo, the second-highest rate in the NFL -- but he completed just 37% of his throws more than 10 yards downfield, which was the worst mark in the league.
What to know for fantasy: Bell was RB2 the last time we saw him (2017), averaging 22.8 points per game. And there were four running backs last season who scored over 25 points in a game against the Bills (Marlon Mack, Melvin Gordon, Leonard Fournette and James White). See Week 1 rankings.
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Ninkovich: Jets will be all jacked up vs. Bills
Dan Orlovsky and Rob Ninkovich agree that with the Jets playing at home and having Le'Veon Bell will be too much for the Bills.
Betting nugget: The underdog has won five of the past six -- and nine of the past 11 -- meetings between these two teams outright. Read more.
Louis-Jacques' pick: Bills 24, Jets 16 Cimini's pick: Jets 21, Bills 20 FPI prediction: NYJ, 59.3% (by an average of 3.4 points)
1 p.m. ET | CBS Matchup rating: 27.1 | Spread: BAL -6.5 (38.5)
What to watch for: Dolphins coaches' eyes widened when Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson was mentioned this week, and they highlighted his passing game improvement from Year 1 to Year 2. "This is not a one-trick pony," coach Brian Flores said. -- Cameron Wolfe
Bold prediction: Jackson gains over 100 yards rushing. He's opening the season against a Dolphins defense that allowed Bills QB Josh Allen to rush for 135 and 95 yards in two meetings last December. -- Jamison Hensley
Stat to know: The Ravens have scored 54 unanswered points versus the Dolphins, including a 40-0 win in Week 8 of 2017. And the Ravens went 6-1 after naming Jackson the starting quarterback in Week 10 of 2018.
What to know for fantasy: Jackson ranked sixth in rush attempts and seventh in rushing yards over the final seven weeks of 2018 ... among all positions. Over that stretch, Jackson had more rushing yards (556) and rushing touchdowns (4) than Christian McCaffrey. See Week 1 rankings.
Betting nugget: Baltimore has covered each of the past eight meetings. But Miami has covered six straight season openers, the longest active streak in the league. Read more.
Hensley's pick: Ravens 26, Dolphins 10 Wolfe's pick: Ravens 24, Dolphins 13 FPI prediction: BAL, 63.1% (by an average of 4.9 points)
4:05 p.m. ET | CBS Matchup rating: 55.8 | Spread: LAC -6.5 (44.5)
What to watch for: With Andrew Luck's surprising retirement, how Jacoby Brissett plays in his absence will go a long way in determining the outcome. Head coach Frank Reich said Brissett just has to play within himself. "The message is you don't have to be a hero," Reich said. -- Eric D. Williams
Bold prediction: Running back Marlon Mack will rush for more than 100 yards. Mack rushed for 908 yards despite missing four games last season, and the Chargers gave up an average of 101.6 yards per game rushing last season and will be without starting Pro Bowl safety Derwin James (foot). -- Mike Wells
Stat to know: The Bolts are 19-6 (.760) against the AFC South with Philip Rivers at quarterback, and the Colts have lost nine of their past 11 overall with Brissett as their starting quarterback.
What to know for fantasy: For his career, T.Y. Hilton averages 1.76 fantasy points per target from Luck. That number dips with Brissett under center, but not as much as you might assume: 1.71 points per target (less than a 3% drop-off). See Week 1 rankings.
Betting nugget: Indianapolis is 1-10 ATS in Week 1 in the past 11 seasons (2-9 straight up). Read more.
Wells' pick: Chargers 21, Colts 17 Williams' pick: Chargers 23, Colts 20 FPI prediction: LAC, 67.8% (by an average of 6.7 points)
4:05 p.m. ET | CBS Matchup rating: 46.1 | Spread: SEA -10 (44)
What to watch for: The debuts of Jadeveon Clowney, Ezekiel Ansah and Zac Taylor are the headlines for this one. Seattle will want to ease Clowney (holdout) and Ansah (shoulder) in given that both are coming off extended absences, so don't expect a full workload from either. And Taylor will have his hands full in his debut as Cincinnati's new head coach. -- Brady Henderson
Bold prediction: Clowney will have two sacks in his Seattle debut. He probably will be lined up against backup left tackle Andre Smith, the veteran who was signed two days before training camp. -- Ben Baby
Stat to know:Joe Mixon rushed for 1,168 yards (fourth in the NFL) last season, and he now faces a Seahawks defense that gave up the third-most yards per rush (4.95).
4:25 p.m. ET | Fox Matchup rating: 42.8 | Spread: DAL -7.5 (45.5)
What to watch for: How much will Ezekiel Elliott play after returning from his holdout and only three practices? In 2017, Elliott returned from a suspension and carried the ball 51 times for 200 yards in the final two games. This time he returns from a holdout with only one padded practice. -- Todd Archer
Bold prediction:Jason Witten will have close to 100 yards receiving and two touchdowns in his first game out of retirement. The Dallas tight end has always feasted against the Giants, which includes four touchdowns in his past five games against them. -- Jordan Raanan
Stat to know: When the Giants have more blockers than defenders in the box, Saquon Barkley takes full advantage. NFL Next Gen Stats has the Giants running back at 6.4 yards per rush last season in that situation, the highest rate of any RB with at least 40 such carries.
What to know for fantasy: Barkley scored 49 total fantasy points in his two games against the Cowboys last season and did so in a variety of ways (14 catches in the first game, 109 yards on the ground in the second one). See Week 1 rankings.
Betting nugget: New York was 7-1 ATS on the road last season, the best mark in the league. Read more.
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Orlovsky: Zeke is going to bring some juice to Cowboys
Dan Orlovsky and Rob Ninkovich like the Cowboys' chances vs. the Giants especially with Ezekiel Elliott back.
Raanan's pick: Cowboys 26, Giants 16 Archer's pick: Cowboys 27, Giants 17 FPI prediction: DAL, 75.3% (by an average of 9.9 points)
4:25 p.m. ET | Fox Matchup rating: 42.3 | Spread: TB -1 (51)
What to watch for: The Bucs might have a strong vertical passing attack under Bruce "No Risk It, No Biscuit" Arians, but the Niners' pass rush could really do some damage up front against an offensive line that surrendered a whopping 19 sacks in the preseason. -- Jenna Laine
Bold prediction: The 49ers will match their interception total from all of last season by picking off Jameis Winston twice -- but Buccaneers receiver Mike Evans will have a huge game to even things out. -- Nick Wagoner
Stat to know: Niners tight end George Kittle gained 855 of his 1,377 receiving yards last season after the catch, the most by any player since YAC was first tracked in 2006.
What to know for fantasy: Only two teams gave up more deep touchdown passes than the 49ers last season, and Winston led the league in air yards per pass attempt. See Week 1 rankings.
Betting nugget: San Francisco is 0-7 ATS and straight up in its past seven games where the total was in the 50s. Read more.
Wagoner's pick: Buccaneers 27, 49ers 24 Laine's pick: Buccaneers 24, 49ers 16 FPI prediction: TB, 52.0% (by an average of 0.8 points)
4:25 p.m. ET | Fox Matchup rating: 25.0 | Spread: DET -2.5 (46.5)
What to watch for: The Cardinals' offense has been a tightly kept secret since coach Kliff Kingsbury was hired in January, leaving plenty of questions about how much Arizona will throw the ball. This will be our first real look. -- Josh Weinfuss
Bold prediction: Arizona QB Kyler Murray ends up with 125 yards passing and 50 yards rushing in the first half, but the Lions' defense stifles him in the second half to force turnovers and give Detroit a come-from-behind win. -- Michael Rothstein
Stat to know: Both Murray and Kingsbury are set to make their NFL debuts. According to Elias Sports Bureau research, they would be the third-youngest quarterback-head coach duo to make their NFL debuts in the same game since the merger in 1970 (the Raiders' Steve Beuerlein and Mike Shanahan in 1988, and the Colts' Bert Jones and Howard Schnellenberger in 1973).
What to know for fantasy:Kerryon Johnson was RB10 over his final two games of 2018, and he gets a Cardinals defense that allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing RBs last season. See Week 1 rankings.
Betting nugget: Quarterbacks making their first career starts are 9-1-1 ATS since 2013 (8-0-1 ATS as the underdog). Read more.
Rothstein's pick: Lions 27, Cardinals 20 Weinfuss' pick: Lions 30, Cardinals 28 FPI prediction: DET, 50.9% (by an average of 0.4 points)
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC Matchup rating: 69.2 | Spread: NE -6 (49)
What to watch for:Tom Brady faces the Steelers' pass rush, which tied for an NFL-high 52 sacks last season, with backup center Ted Karras stepping in for David Andrews (IR, blood clots in lungs) and 2018 first-round pick Isaiah Wynn (IR as a rookie/torn Achilles) making his first career start at left tackle. How the Patriots' offensive line protects him might be the difference. -- Mike Reiss
Bold prediction: The Steelers' improved defense will intercept Brady inside Gillette Stadium for the first time ever. Pittsburgh feels it finally has the playmakers in the back seven to match wits with Brady, who has never lost to Pittsburgh at home. -- Jeremy Fowler
Stat to know: Brady has a 86.1 Total QBR against the Steelers since the metric was first tracked in 2006, his second-best QBR against a single opponent in that span (91.8 vs. the Bears).
What to know for fantasy: In Sony Michel's past four games with at least 15 carries (playoffs included), he ran for seven touchdowns and averaged 22.3 fantasy points per game. See Week 1 rankings.
Betting nugget: Pittsburgh was 5-0 ATS as an underdog (4-1 outright) last season, including a win vs. New England. But Brady is 7-3-1 ATS against Ben Roethlisberger. Read more.
Fowler's pick: Steelers 27, Patriots 20 Reiss' pick: Patriots 27, Steelers 24 FPI prediction: NE, 65.1% (by an average of 5.6 points)
Monday, 7:10 p.m. ET | ESPN/ESPN App Matchup rating: 71.3 | Spread: NO -6.5 (52.5)
What to watch for: Saints players and coaches have downplayed the idea of a "hangover effect" from the NFC Championship Game, but it sure would help them move on if they could win their first season opener since 2013. -- Mike Triplett
Stat to know: Brees becomes the sixth different quarterback to start a season opener at age 40 or older since 1950, joining Tom Brady, Brett Favre, Vinny Testaverde, Warren Moon and Johnny Unitas. And the Saints are 20-6 at home in prime time under Brees (2-0 last season).
What to know for fantasy:Keke Coutee is unlikely to play, and Will Fuller went over 100 receiving yards with a touchdown in all three games he played with Coutee inactive in 2018. See Week 1 rankings.
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Ninkovich: Saints will be motivated after last season
Dan Orlovsky expects Deshaun Watson to utlilize the new additions to top the Saints while Rob Ninkovich thinks New Orleans will be fired up after last year.
Betting nugget: Houston QB Deshaun Watson is 7-2 ATS as an underdog in his career (4-5 straight up). Read more.
Barshop's pick: Saints 35, Texans 20 Triplett's pick: Saints 29, Texans 23 FPI prediction: NO, 65.3% (by an average of 5.7 points)
Monday, 10:20 p.m. ET | ESPN/ESPN App Matchup rating: 33.9 | Spread: DEN -2.5 (43)
What to watch for: How emotionally drained will the Raiders be from the Antonio Brown on-again, off-again saga? The adrenaline rush from a season opener will carry the Raiders early, and an improved defense should hold the Broncos at bay. And now that Brown is back in the building, he will dominate the conversation. -- Paul Gutierrez
Bold prediction: The Broncos sacked Derek Carr at least three times in three of their first four meetings but haven't sacked him more than twice in a game in any of the past five meetings. Denver will need to sack him at least four times Monday night to get a road win. -- Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: The Broncos have won seven consecutive season openers, the longest active streak in the NFL and the longest streak in franchise history. But they've also lost three straight at the Raiders and three straight games on Monday Night Football -- all to AFC West opponents.
What to know for fantasy: Denver gave up the fifth-most deep touchdown passes last season, and Tyrell Williams, stepping into a more prominent role than ever before, ranks fourth in yards per catch during his career (minimum 150 catches). See Week 1 rankings.
Betting nugget: Denver is 5-13 ATS in its past 18 road games and 2-8 ATS in its past 10 divisional games. Read more.
Legwold's pick: Broncos 23, Raiders 20 Gutierrez's pick: Raiders 17, Broncos 16 FPI prediction: OAK, 51.7% (by an average of 0.7 points)
Oakland Raiders coach Jon Gruden said he is counting on having embattled wide receiver Antonio Brown in the lineup for the season opener against the Denver Broncos on Monday night.
"That's the plan," Gruden told reporters during a short statement at Friday's practice.
"Antonio is back today," Gruden said. "We're really excited about that. Ready to move on. He's had a lot of, obviously, time to think about things. We're happy to have him back and I know Raider Nation is excited about that, too."
Earlier Friday, a source told ESPN's Josina Anderson that Brown issued "an emotional apology" during a team meeting on Friday morning.
That apology came on the heels of a confrontation with general manager Mike Mayock on Wednesday, in which disparaging language was used by Brown, a source told ESPN.
On Wednesday, Brown initiated a discussion with Mayock midway through practice, resulting in the confrontation that had sparked the team's impasse with the player, according to a team source.
A Raiders source confirmed Brown was unhappy with the fine levied by the team and, seeing Mayock watching practice, walked over and initiated an exchange with the GM. The Raiders source confirmed information from another league source who said Brown called Mayock a "cracker" and unleashed a barrage of "cuss words" during the altercation.
The team source said Mayock tried to keep his cool and defuse the situation.
"[Mayock] was like, 'I'm cool, I understand your displeasure,'" the source said. "[Mayock] sort of just like ... just walked away because he saw it escalate."
The source stressed the confrontation escalated quickly, but it never appeared to be getting physical, and players, including linebacker Vontaze Burfict, attempted to separate Brown from the situation in order to calm him down.
On Friday, Brown issued the apology with team captains "standing with him" and that the team "treated him like a family member" afterward, the source said.
Poland is in the driver's seat for a quarterfinal berth next week after beating Russia 79-74 in a second-round opener on Friday in Foshan, China. Adam Waczynski scored 18 points and Mateusz Ponitka added 14 for Poland, which stayed unbeaten at 4-0 and could clinch a quarterfinal spot in a number of ways -- the simplest being a win over Argentina on Sunday.
"It's a great feeling but we don't want to stop,'' Poland guard Lukasz Koszarek said. "We know it'll be more difficult and more difficult, but we don't want to stop.''
Mikhail Kulagin scored a game-high 21 for Russia (2-2), which was eliminated from quarterfinal contention. The Russians play their second-round finale on Sunday against Venezuela.
Poland shot only 36 percent, but went 35-for-38 from the foul line.
Poland led by one with 2:20 left when Ponitka drove the lane, stumbled to the floor under the basket and somehow fired the ball out to Aaron Cel in the left corner as he fell. Cel hit a 3-pointer off the improbable assist, putting Poland up 72-68, and the team kept the lead the rest of the way.
"This is the competitive will, the heart, the toughness of our team -- to find a way and keep competing,'' Poland coach Mike Taylor said.
Taylor said he thinks the run by Poland in this World Cup, the country's first appearance in FIBA's signature event since 1967, will be a spark for growing the game in the country.
"I think it means everything,'' Taylor said. "I think the country can take self-confidence from the performance of these players. We can compete. We can do it.''
Russia led 40-29 late in the half, but Ponitka made a 30-footer to beat the buzzer to end the second quarter and cut Poland's deficit to six going into the break. The Russian lead was still seven late in the third, but Poland ended the game on a 29-17 run.
"It was a very difficult loss,'' Russia guard Vitaly Fridzon said. "We controlled the game. ... Devastating to lose like that. Maybe we lacked some luck.''
Russia coach Sergey Bazarevich said the free-throw disparity -- Russia shot 19, half as many as Poland -- was a major factor.
"If you look at the stats, we were better in everything,'' Bazarevich said. "In every aspect, we were better.''
SERBIA 90, PUERTO RICO 47
At Wuhan, Serbia had no trouble with Puerto Rico on the way to remaining unbeaten and moving to the cusp of a quarterfinal berth.
Nemanja Bjelica scored 18 points, Boban Marjanovic scored 16 and Nikola Jokic finished with 14 for Serbia (4-0), which shot 56 percent. David Huertas scored 11 for Puerto Rico, which was held to 27 percent shooting.
"Not a lot to tell,'' Serbia coach Sasha Djordjevic said.
Serbia is shooting 61 percent through four games so far at the World Cup. Jokic (20-for-24) and Marjanovic (19-for-23) are shooting a combined 83 percent.
LATER FRIDAY
Argentina (3-0) vs. Venezuela (2-1); Spain (3-0) vs. Italy (2-1)
SATURDAY SCHEDULE
United States (3-0) vs. Greece (2-1); France (3-0) vs. Lithuania (2-1); Brazil (3-0) vs. Czech Republic (2-1); Australia (3-0) vs. Dominican Republic (2-1)
OLYMPICS UPDATE
FIBA confirmed that Australia is the second team to clinch a spot in next year's Tokyo Olympics by being the top World Cup finisher from the Oceania region. Japan and Australia are now in the 12-team field. Another six spots will be decided by the end of this World Cup.
CLASSIFICATION ROUND
Nigeria (2-2) 83, Ivory Coast (0-4) 66
Iran (1-3) 71, Angola (1-3) 62
China (1-2) vs. South Korea (0-3); Tunisia (1-2) vs. Philippines (0-3)
SATURDAY
New Zealand (1-2) vs. Japan (0-3); Canada (1-2) vs. Jordan (0-3); Turkey (1-2) vs. Montenegro (0-3); Germany (1-2) vs. Senegal (0-3)
TAMPA, Fla. -- New York Yankees outfielder Giancarlo Stanton had five plate appearances in a simulated game Friday as he works to return this month from a knee injury.
The slugger also worked out in right field at the Yankees' complex in Tampa, Florida. He is expected to take part in another simulated game Saturday.
Stanton has been limited to nine games this year, hitting .290 with a home run and 7 RBIs.
He strained his left biceps March 31 in his third game, strained a shoulder and calf during his rehabilitation and did not return until June 18. A week later, he strained the posterior cruciate ligament in his right knee during an awkward headfirst slide into third base.
Also, outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury continues his season-long rehab. He is nearing the conclusion of a second consecutive year without playing in a major league game.
Ellsbury, who turns 36 Wednesday, worked out indoors. He had left hip surgery in August 2018 and been slowed by other injuries, including plantar fasciitis in the right foot.
Ellsbury is guaranteed more than $21 million in 2020, the final season of a $153 million, seven-year contract that includes a $21 million team option for 2021 with a $5 million buyout.
Mike Minor starts Saturday for the Rangers against the Orioles and with a good outing -- a strong possibility given the opponent -- Minor could move into the lead for the best individual pitching season in Rangers history, at least via Baseball-Reference WAR.
I've been slightly obsessed with Minor's WAR for most of the season, ever since he got off to a hot start and then peaked with a complete game on June 26 to lower his ERA to 2.40. By that time, he had established a clear chance to post the highest WAR ever for a Rangers pitcher. He's slowed down a bit since then, but enters this game at 12-8 with a 3.12 ERA. You may be thinking: Sure, that's a nice season, but the best in Rangers history? What about Nolan Ryan or ... umm ... OK, the Rangers don't exactly have a storied legacy of stellar starting pitching. No Rangers pitcher has won a Cy Young Award. The best finisher was Fergie Jenkins, who finished second in 1974. That also ranks -- for now -- as the best season in Rangers history:
Now, 1974 is a long ways from 2019, so Jenkins' numbers look ridiculously crazy compared to Minor's. Twenty-nine complete games! Alas, this article isn't about Mike Minor and Fergie Jenkins, but rather that my obsession with Minor's WAR has meant I've seen his name atop the WAR leaderboard most of the season. So this article is about how Minor's Baseball-Reference WAR could possibly be better than Justin Verlander's (and every other pitcher in the sport).
But why stop there? Let's look at a few of the other weirdest and most surprising WAR totals of the season (we're sticking to B-R WAR throughout, with all totals and stats through Wednesday's games).
Quick timeout. You can skip the next few paragraphs if you know about WAR and just want to get to the fun stuff. WAR has become a mainstream statistic over the past few years -- the Mike Trout versus Miguel Cabrera debates from 2012 and 2013 almost feel like another era. Its usage has advanced beyond the provenance of sabermetric writers (and front offices) as most national and beat writers now reference WAR on a regular basis. MLB Network and ESPN cite it as a routine part of their various shows. Local game broadcasts aren't quite as deep into the mud, but we're seeing or hearing WAR mentioned more often, which means the casual fan who isn't watching Brian Kenny every afternoon is getting more exposure to it.
So, to that fan in particular, this may not compute:
Minor: 12-8, 3.12 ERA, 181.1 IP, 158 H, 58 BB, 180 SO, 7.6 WAR
Verlander: 17-5, 2.56 ERA, 193 IP, 114 H, 35 BB, 257 SO, 6.7 WAR
Verlander leads in every category ... except the one that says Minor is better. For the uninitiated, WAR stands for wins above replacement. The basic framework involves comparing a player to the average player and then the average player to the replacement-level player ... for ease of understanding, think of most players on the Tigers as a replacement-level player. As the Baseball-Reference site explains, "There is no one way to determine WAR. There are hundreds of steps to make this calculation, and dozens of places where reasonable people can disagree on the best way to implement a particular part of the framework."
Anyway, let's get to Minor and Verlander, with a short-and-dirty explanation, not the hundreds of steps part. In evaluating pitchers, there are five primary components to Baseball-Reference WAR: (1) How many runs has he allowed? (2) How much has he pitched? (3) Where has he pitched? (4) How much has his defense hurt or helped him? (5) What opposing lineups has he faced?
Minor has allowed 3.27 runs per nine innings, Verlander 2.66. Park effects help Minor. Baseball-Reference uses three-year park effects and Globe Life Park is a good hitters' park -- a park factor of 111, meaning it boosts offense 11%. Minute Maid, contrary to popular belief, is actually a slight pitchers' park. Including road games, Minor ends up with a park factor of 109.8 and Verlander 98.7. Minor has faced slightly tougher lineups -- his opponents' average runs scored per nine innings is 5.06 and Verlander 4.94. Basically, Minor has had to face the Astros four times while Verlander has had the good fortune of not having to face his own teammates.
The final category is team defense. You should understand: Defensive evaluation is still controversial! Baseball-Reference uses defensive runs saved, calculated by Sports Info Solutions. According to DRS, the Rangers have been a bad defensive team and the Astros a very good one, with the Rangers' D costing Minor 0.24 runs per nine innings and the Astros' D saving Verlander to 0.24 runs per nine.
So the difference in defense alone is worth almost half run per game in favor of Minor. Going back to each pitcher's runs allowed per game, that would lower Minor's total to 3.03 and raise Verlander's to 2.90. From there, the park effects and quality of opposition increases Minor's value and he ends up credited with 55 runs saved above an average pitcher and Verlander 46 runs above average. Those figures are then translated to the above WAR numbers.
Is this reasonable? Certainly, especially if you accept the defensive numbers. On the other hand, Verlander has certainly been more dominant: Many fewer hits allowed and many more strikeouts. Baseball-Reference spits it all out and says Minor has been the best pitcher in baseball this year.
P.S. FanGraphs WAR, which uses a different philosophy in rating pitchers, says Verlander has been better. But it also says Lance Lynn -- Minor's teammate -- has been better than Verlander and rates as the best pitcher in the American League.
Cody Bellinger versus Christian Yelich, Christian Yelich versus Cody Bellinger. The NL MVP race has been a two-man battle all season after both players had monster Aprils. If there's a third wheel in the discussion, maybe it's Anthony Rendon. Yet ... there's Ketel Marte, the Arizona Diamondbacks' center fielder/second baseman who hit one home run for the Mariners in 437 at-bats in 2016, surging pass Yelich into second place on the National League WAR leaderboard. It's a wonderful thing, this baseball season we're living in. Their stats:
Yelich's OPS is more than 100 points higher, he has more home runs, he's even stolen 26 bases (in 28 attempts) to nine for Marte. How can Marte be better? (Keep in mind that small differences in WAR are meaningless, so don't get too worked up ever two-tenths of a win. Still, nobody is putting Marte in the Bellinger/Yelich MVP discussion.)
For position players, WAR evaluates a player's offensive production, baserunning and defensive value. There is also a position adjustment to consider. Playing shortstop or center field is more difficult than first base, so WAR accounts for that. Keep in mind as well that WAR is a cumulative statistic, so more playing time helps. Marte has had 27 more plate appearances than Yelich, a minor factor in his favor.
For offensive value, Baseball-Reference determines how many runs a player has created compared to an average hitter and then makes a park adjustment. Clutch hitting is not considered (maybe one of the most controversial aspects of WAR). A home run against the Orioles counts the same as a home run against the Dodgers.
Yelich is credited with 51 runs above average (including park effects) to 35 for Marte. On defense, Marte has plus-9 DRS while Yelich is at minus-1. That makes it 50 runs for Yelich and 44 for Marte. Yelich gets plus-5 runs for his baserunning (includes base stealing and advancement on the bases) and Marte plus-2. Hitting into double plays is a bad thing, so that's another category. Both players are plus-1 run there, so Yelich leads, 56 runs above average to 47.
One last adjustment. Marte has started 78 games in center field, 44 at second and five at shortstop. Yelich has started 116 games in right field and three in left. Marte receives a positional adjustment of five runs. Yelich plays lower on the defensive spectrum and receives an adjustment of minus-5 runs. That makes it 52 to 51 runs above average in favor of Marte, and thus the slight edge in WAR.
If the positional adjustment doesn't make sense, view it this way. If a shortstop is credited with 10 runs saved on defense and a first baseman is credited with 10 saved, if you didn't make a positional adjustment, both players would receive credit for the same value on defense. But shortstop is more difficult to play (and the first baseman would probably be a terrible shortstop), so we need to make an adjustment to more accurately compare the two players.
The bottom line: Yelich is having an amazing season. But so is Marte! I think with offensive stats, we sometimes overestimate the difference in numbers between hitters. We see Yelich with the big home run total and slugging percentage and it feels like he's on another plane of existence. Maybe he is. Did you see him in the Body Issue?
Here's another way to look at this. Think of the Tigers versus the Twins. The Tigers have a .682 OPS while the Twins are at .841. That's a huge difference, larger than the difference between Marte and Yelich. The Twins have scored 822 runs to 503 for the Tigers. That's an average of 35 runs per lineup position -- the difference between the highest-scoring team in the league and a team with a historically terrible offense. The difference between Marte and Yelich is smaller than a typical Twins hitter and a typical Tigers hitter.
Speaking of MVP talk, we hear Devers and Bogaerts mentioned as American League MVP candidates (non-Mike Trout division), but not Semien, the underrated shortstop for the A's. Numbers:
This one is about park effects and defense. The three Red Sox players are having better offensive seasons, but the difference -- again -- is not significantly better, especially after factoring in Fenway Park (hitters' park) and Oakland (pitchers' park). Baseball-Reference has Bogaerts at 38 runs above average, Devers at 32, Semien at 27 and Betts at 26.
Then we get to defense:
Semien: plus-2 DRS
Betts: plus-12
Devers: minus-6
Bogaerts: minus-20
When translating runs to wins, every 10 runs is approximately one win of value, so Bogaerts is losing about two wins of WAR due to his defense. Is he really 20 runs worse than an average shortstop? That, dear readers, is a debate for another day. Remember: Defensive evaluation is controversial! For the record, Bogaerts is steady, but probably does lack range. He was at minus-19 DRS last season and minus-11 the season before, so DRS is at least consistent in his evaluation.
Bottom line: Semien has quietly had an outstanding season, even if it's not a super flashy outstanding season. He gets on base, hits for power, plays every game and has turned into a solid shortstop. Props.
Wait, what? Freeman is hitting .300, has 38 home runs and leads the majors with 114 RBIs. Ahmed is hitting .264 with 17 home runs and 77 RBIs ... which, wow, when did Nick Ahmed become a competent major league hitter? Still, nice numbers, but not MVP-caliber numbers like Freeman.
You can guess where this one is going. Freeman has a 33-run advantage with his hitting (32 to minus-1), but Ahmed makes up for it in other areas:
Defense: plus-18 to plus-4
Baserunning: plus-4 to plus-1
Avoiding double plays: 0 to minus-2
Position adjustment: plus-7 to minus-7
Freeman will finish high in the MVP voting. Ahmed will be lucky to get a 10th-place vote or two. I'm not suggesting that's criminal if that happens. I'd take Freeman as well. We can at least acknowledge that Ahmed, who will probably win his second straight Gold Glove, has become a very valuable player for the Diamondbacks.
This one is interesting because we're comparing two middle infielders, not a shortstop and first baseman. Torres has 34 home runs and Wong has 10, so there's 24 runs right there! Despite Torres' big edge in power, his offensive edge over Wong is only 10 runs -- 20 runs above average to 10. Wong's advantage is a higher OBP (.346 to .368), although surprisingly park effects have little to do with this comparison as Busch Stadium and Yankee Stadium both rate as slight pitchers' parks.
What? Yankee Stadium, with that Little League porch in right field?
Remember, park effects are about run environment and not whether a park is simply just a good home run park or about a player's specific home/road splits. Yankee Stadium boosts home runs, but takes away in other areas (doubles, mostly) to make it a more neutral park overall. Understanding run environment is important. It's not suggesting this player will perform a certain way in another park. It's just placing a value on the runs a player has created in his home park. Five runs at Petco is more valuable than five runs at Coors Field.
Anyway, Wong grades at plus-13 runs on defense and Torres at minus-4, making up for Torres' offensive edge. I mentioned earlier that WAR doesn't take clutch hitting into account (or timely hitting, if you dislike the term "clutch"). It also doesn't factor in a player's batting order position. Wong has spent most of the season hitting seventh or eighth. His on-base skills would have been more valuable if he hit in front of Paul Goldschmidt and Marcell Ozuna all season, since he'd score more runs than he did while hitting in front of the pitcher, but WAR values a player in a neutral context, stripped of his humanity and regarded as only the sum of bases gained and outs made.
Well, this is a bit barbarian: The guy who has been the Cy Young favorite most of the season versus the perennially frustrating Gray, who is now out for the season with a foot fracture.
What's the deal here? Well, park effects, of course. Gray, pitching half the time on Mars, has a park factor of 116.2; Ryu has a park factor of 96.
The second hidden factor is defense. The Rockies' defense is essentially average -- minus-.08 runs per nine innings. Defensive runs saved views the Dodgers' defense as the best in the game and credits it with helping Ryu to a whopping 0.54 runs per nine innings. Gray also has faced slightly tougher lineups (including the Dodgers three times).
Baseball-Reference's evaluation says Gray's 3.84 ERA in 150 innings while having to pitch at Coors Field is more impressive than Ryu's 2.45 ERA in 161.2 innings at Dodger Stadium with a great defense behind him.
Assuming Ryu gets back on track after his recent struggles, I don't think Cy Young voters will be buying this one, however. Ryu probably still rates as the favorite or co-favorite, even if he does rank just tied for 10th among NL pitchers in WAR.
It's OK to admit that you don't know who David Fletcher is. He plays for the Angels. Mostly third base, but also 25 games at shortstop, 15 at second base and 17 in the outfield. Second-year guy.
We present this:
Fletcher: 5 home runs
Suarez: 40 home runs
Soler: 40 home runs
This is why some people hate WAR. They can't wrap their heads around the idea that a five-homer player could be more valuable than a 40-homer hitter, even in a time when everyone hits home runs. Or maybe because everyone is hitting home runs. No power, no love.
What's the story? Well, Fletcher isn't a complete zero on offense. He gets on base (.345 OBP), hits some doubles, plays good defense (plus-10 DRS) and gets a positional adjustment of plus-3 runs. He's a nice, underappreciated kind of player.
Suarez has created 93 runs to 70 for Fletcher, but after park effects that difference ends up as 15-run advantage. His defense at third is below average at minus-2 DRS. With the other minor tweaks, Fletcher moves ahead in WAR. Soler is better on offense (25 runs above average), but he's a plodding right fielder (minus-8 DRS) and has also started 89 games at DH so gets a positional adjustment of minus-10 runs.
Bottom line, I guess: There's more to baseball than home runs, even in 2019.
Reyes is already a minor legend of sorts, with rockets and lasers and towering home runs. He has the fifth-highest average exit velocity in the game and has ripped 34 home runs. He's fun to watch for that possibility that he may hit the next pitch 500 feet. It's also really his only skill. He can't run, he's bad on defense, he doesn't draw many walks. There's a reason the Padres traded him and why the Indians are using him as a DH. He does have flaws.
Hamilton is his polar opposite, a guy how makes his living with his legs. He hasn't homered all year. If my math is correct, that's 34 to 0 in favor of Reyes. Hamilton is also hitting .218 with a .285 OBP and the Royals waived him. He can't possibly be more valuable than a guy hitting .254/.316/.531 with 34 home runs, can he?
WAR says, yes, it is possible.
Here's what I know: I'd love to see a team of Billy Hamiltons take on a team of Franmils.
Middle-distance runner trains with women’s football club in South Africa while her athletics career sits in limbo due to new IAAF rules
Caster Semenya looks poised to start a new sporting career as a footballer if she fails to overturn rules barring her from running in women’s races.
The two-time Olympic 800m champion is appealing a decision by the Court of Arbitration for Sport to uphold the IAAF’s controversial new rules relating to testosterone limits in female athletics events such as her specialist 800m distance.
Under the new rules Semenya – and other female athletes with DSD (differences of sexual development) – need to reduce their natural testosterone level in order to take part in certain women’s events in international competition.
She refuses to comply by the rules and cannot defend her title at the IAAF World Championships, which starts this month in Doha, but has started training with Gauteng-based JVW women’s football club and says she is looking forward to “a new journey”.
The club is owned by South African women’s captain Janine van Wyk. Semenya, 28, used to play footballer in her youth and comparisons are not surprisingly being made with Usain Bolt’s move into football when his career ended.
CASTER SEMENYA JOINS JVW |
Olympic Champion Caster Semenya has reportedly joined and registered by JVW FC owned by Banyana captain Janine van Wyk and will be playing in the Gauteng #SasolLeague. The 28-year-old started training with the team on Tuesday. #LimSportsZonepic.twitter.com/ZbJzS4pUtK
“I am grateful for this opportunity and I appreciate the love and support I already get from the team,” said Semenya. “I am looking forward to this new journey, and hopefully I can contribute as much as I can to the club.”
Evaun Williams and Iris Holder win titles on day one of the European Masters Championships in Venice
Evaun Williams is expected to dominate all the W80 throws and she got off to an excellent start on the first day of the European Masters Championships on the outskirts of Venice to win Britain’s first gold medal, while Iris Holder won gold and Netherlands’ Rietje Dijkman set a world record.
It was generally a quiet day with no track finals and the opening ceremony breaking up the action but Britain got off to an encouraging start in hot conditions in Jesolo with the temperatures well into the 30s.
The multiple world champion and world record-holder Williams won the shot put by nearly two metres with 9.53m. The worst of her six throws was 9.14m and the runner-up Ewa Frackowiak of Poland threw just 7.67m.
The other British victory came from W75 triple jumper Holder, whose win was convincing in a different manner. Helgard Houben of Germany opened with 6.33m to Holder’s 6.26m but the Briton achieved her winning effort in round two with 6.42m.
Her third (6.39m), fifth (6.40m) and sixth (6.34m) were also marginally in excess of the German’s best mark and it was probably the 78-year-old’s best result since winning the World W70 title in Finland in 2012.
Just missing out on gold for Britain was Lucy Marshall in the W35 hammer. Marshall took the lead with a 60.25m throw in round two but Vania Sofia Sousa Silva of Portugal snatched gold off her by just two centimetres with a 60.27m fourth round throw.
Marshall, who set a 63.47m PB at Loughborough last month and ranks fifth nationally as a senior, was competing in her first masters international event.
Steve Linsell has been winning major masters high jump medals for over a decade and he matched his M50 silver from Aarhus in 2017 with a M55 second place with a 1.70m leap as Germany’s Ruediger Weber won with 1.76m.
In the W80 triple jump Netherlands’ Rietje Dijkman added a centimetre to the world record with a 7.37m leap.
Keith Newton won a M50 triple jump bronze with 12.48m as Italy’s Michele Tiko took gold with 12.67m.
In the 100m heats, Britain’s M35 Jonathan Browne (10.85), M80 Anthony Treacher (15.80) and W65 Caroline Powell (14.91) qualified fastest for the final while M60 John Wright (12.52) was easily fastest in the heats.
In the 1500m heats, M35 Mike Cummings (4:10.43), M40 Matt Barnes (4:15.93), M50 Mark Symes (4:26.14) and M55 Guy Bracken (4:38.46) plus M60 John Thomson (4:51.36) all produced the fastest times to qualify for Saturday’s finals.
Surprisingly Finland, with seven golds, top the medal table on day one and these included golds for Senni Sopanen in the W90 triple jump and shot.
Ahead of Sunday’s Simplyhealth Great North Run, Farah describes Kipchoge’s target as mind blowing
It is a measure of the size of the task facing Eliud Kipchoge in Vienna next month when an athlete of Mo Farah’s stature describes the Kenyan’s quest for a sub-two-hour marathon as “mind blowing”.
Farah is aiming to win his sixth Simplyhealth Great North Run title on the trot on Sunday and his second consecutive Chicago Marathon crown next month. The 36-year-old has also won 10 global track titles during his phenomenal career. Yet he struggles to get his head around Kichoge’s sub-two-hour target for 26.2 miles.
“It’s 17 seconds per 100 metres for the whole way,” says Farah. “People talk about sub-two hours without even thinking about it properly but when you break it down into what pace is needed it’s incredible.”
Farah jokes that the pace per 100 metres is close to his own PB for that distance. Or, to put it another way, a sub-two-hour marathon equates to 34 seconds per 200m, 68 seconds for each 400m, 2:50 per kilometre or 4:34 per mile.
Kipchoge is due to attack the barrier from October 12-20 and Farah’s Chicago Marathon title defence is October 13. “If I can, I’ll watch it,” he says. “I’d like to see what’ll happen and if it’s possible!”
Sportingly, Farah accepts Kipchoge is in a league of his own right now in the marathon. But his Chicago victory in 2018 – in a European record of 2:05:11 – marked him out as one of the best of the rest, although the Briton believes he needs to nudge his PB down to 2:03-2:04 to be considered Kipchoge’s biggest rival.
If he can hit his rivals for six by adding to his haul of victories in the Great North Run on Sunday, he then has five weeks to fine-tune his preparations ahead of his Chicago defence.
What kind of shape is he in? “We’ll find out Sunday!” he teases, before adding more seriously: “I think it’s okay. Without actually racing it’s difficult to tell what I can do but training has gone well and I feel strong.
“I always enjoy the Great North Run and it fits nicely. Compared to last year it gives me an extra week of training this time, which is good.”
Farah was in relaxed mood speaking to the media at the St Mary’s Heritage Centre in Gateshead on Friday (pictured below with young athletes from Gateshead Harriers). As he took his pew in the former parish church on the banks of the River Tyne, he was laid back and full of jokes.
When talk turns to the marathon, though, he is more serious and admits he would probably have retired at the end of 2017 if it wasn’t for a burning desire to crack the mystery of the 26.2-mile distance.
Farah conquered the track with an unprecedented streak of world and Olympic titles at 5000m and 10,000m from 2011 onwards. But the marathon is proving trickier to tame.
“On the track I’d achieved so much with world and Olympic titles and when you’ve done that, on the track, you no longer quite get the same drive because you’ve done it. I think to run you have to be hungry,” he explains.
“The marathon is hard. I thought it’d be easier than it is, but it’s not! In the 10,000m you might feel tired with maybe five laps to go. You hang on for a lap and then you only have a mile to run and you somehow get through it. It’s easier on the mind.
“But in the marathon, if you feel bad with 10-12 miles to go, it’s a long way to go. And in the marathon you never know how you’re going to feel.”
Farah appeared to cruise to victory in Chicago last year but did he feel as good as he looked? “Yes, I felt great and could have run quicker,” he says, “but in London (in April, where he ran 2:05:39 in fifth) I didn’t!”
It seems to aggravate him a little and he talks in envy and mild wonderment about Kipchoge’s record of 11 wins in 12 marathon majors. “It’s amazing consistency,” he says.
But isn’t Farah similarly consistent in the Great North Run and 5000/10,000m on the track? “Yeah, but it’s not the marathon though, is it?” he replies with a shrug. “In the marathon I’m still searching.”
He talks about the marathon at the Olympics in Tokyo being “brutal” due to the potential weather conditions but he has not ruled out racing there. “In 2020, if I’m capable of winning a medal for my country then I’ll go out there,” he says. “Winning medals is still important for me.”
As for Kipchoge and his sub-two-hour marathon tilt at the INEOS 1:59 Challenge in Vienna? “If he does it there will be so many more people believing that they can then do it,” Farah reckons.
“It’ll be the same as when Roger Bannister ran the first sub-four-minute mile. He was the first to do that but years later I was doing it at the end of my races, like at the Worlds in Moscow in 2013,” he says.
Britons Jamie Murray and Neal Skupski failed to reach the men's doubles final, losing in two sets to top seeds Juan Sebastian Cabal and Robert Farah.
The Columbian pair, who are Wimbledon champions, won 7-6 (7-5) 7-6 (10-8) in just over two hours in New York.
There were no breaks of serve in the semi-final with Farah and Cabal converting their third match point.
They will play Spain's Marcel Granollers and Argentina's Horacio Zeballos in Friday's final.
Zeballos and Granollers defeated Germans Kevin Krawietz and Andreas Mies 7-6 (7-2) 7-6 (7-5) in the other semi-final at Flushing Meadows.
Murray and Skupski, the 15th seeds, had two set points in the second-set tie-break against Cabal and Farah but could not convert either with the Colombians securing the win when Skupski netted a forehand smash.
"It was a close match, no breaks of serve, not many break points either," Murray said. "I guess we just didn't make enough good returns at the right time and ended up losing.
"It's frustrating to be that close to the final, losing by such a close margin, but it's been a good tournament.
"We played some good tennis, five good matches, so it bodes well for us going forward."
The Britons are still a relatively new pairing, having teamed up after this year's French Open. They lost in the first round at Wimbledon.
Scot Murray is already through to the mixed doubles final, where he and American Bethanie Mattek-Sands will face the top seeds - Chan Hao-ching, of Chinese Tapei, and New Zealander Michael Venus.
In the women's doubles, Ashleigh Barty and Victoria Azarenka are through to the final after thrashing Aliaksandra Sasnovich and Viktoria Kuzmova 6-0 6-1.
They will play the winners of the semi-final between Elise Mertens and Aryna Sabalenka and Vania King and Caroline Dolehide.
Rafael Nadal is tennis' "greatest fighter ever", says his US Open semi-final opponent Matteo Berrettini.
Spaniard Nadal, 33, faces Italian 24th seed Berrettini on Friday for a place in the final at Flushing Meadows.
Bulgaria's Grigor Dimitrov plays Russia's Daniil Medvedev in the first semi-final on Arthur Ashe Stadium from 21:00 BST.
"It's unbelievable what he's doing," 23-year-old Berrettini said of 18-time Grand Slam champion Nadal.
"I admire him, the way he is on the court. His attitude is something that is... I think it's close to perfection.
"I think he's the greatest fighter ever in this sport."
Three of Nadal's 18 majors have been won in New York and he is a heavy favourite to close within one of Roger Federer's record men's tally of 20 Grand Slam singles titles.
He has dropped only one set in the tournament so far, against 2014 champion Marin Cilic in the fourth round.
Friday's match will be the first meeting between Nadal and Berrettini, with the latter playing in his first Grand Slam semi-final.
Berrettini defeated 13th seed Gael Monfils to progress to the last four and Nadal - who last won the US Open title in 2017 - expects a challenge.
"He is having a great year. He's in the semi-finals, winning a lot of good matches," said the second seed.
"In the semi-finals of a Grand Slam match you can't expect an easy opponent. You can't expect an easy match.
"He's serving huge, big forehands, moving well, and big confidence because he's having a great year."
Berrettini was just nine when Nadal won his first Grand Slam title - at Roland Garros in 2005 - and says his first memory of the Spaniard is from that year's Italian Open.
Nadal beat Guillermo Coria in a five-set epic to win in Rome, but, back then, Berrettini had very different priorities.
"They were showing the match on the TV for free, but it was a channel that was about cartoons," he said.
"I was young. These guys, I mean, six hours. Come on! I want to catch my cartoons."
Medvedev 'working to be better' after discipline issues
Before Nadal and Berrettini take to the court, fifth seed Medvedev faces unseeded Dimitrov in their first meeting since 2017.
Medvedev, 23, has been in the headlines for a variety of reasons in New York, facing jeers from the crowd after his third and fourth-round victories.
He was fined $9,000 (£7,400) for a visible obscenity and unsportsmanlike conduct during his third-round win over Feliciano Lopez.
"What I got I deserved. Usually I'm not like this, as I was in the third-round match. I'm not proud of it. I'm working to be better," Medvedev said.
"Hopefully I can show the bright side of myself."
Medvedev entered the US Open following a successful few weeks on the hard courts, winning in Cincinnati after reaching the finals of both the Rogers Cup and the Citi Open in Washington.
"I am surprised. That's what I've been working for all my life. That's where I've been going step by step," he added.
"I was improving my rankings. But I am still really surprised with the way this last four weeks have been going.
"That's what I've been working for. That's what I've dreamed of. I've achieved some of what I've dreamt."
'I don't want to go there anymore' - Dimitrov enjoying return to form
Until now, this has been a year to forget for Dimitrov with a shoulder injury a big factor in the former world number three slipping to 78 in the rankings and forcing him to withdraw from four tournaments.
Coming into US Open, Dimitrov had lost seven of his previous eight matches. But his five-set victory over five-time US Open champion Roger Federer in the quarter-finals demonstrated a resurgence in form as the 28-year-old reached his first Grand Slam semi-final since the 2017 Australian Open.
"It was that low that I don't even want to go there any more. It was just obviously injury, losing points, ranking. That's the lowest point of any player," said Dimitrov.
"I think the past six, seven months have been pretty rough for me. But I had somebody to lean on, my friends, my family. I kept on believing again in the work, the rehab I had to put behind my shoulder, the exercise, the practice, fixing up the racquet a little bit. There were so many things I had to adjust in such a small but big period of time.
"Next thing you know, you're almost end of the year, you have a result like that. It's pretty special to me."
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