Big Picture

More than a week has passed since The Greatest Test Ever veered and lurched its way to a conclusion that had to be seen to be believed, and the events of Headingley 2019 still feel just as surreal.

But this Ashes series, with five Tests in six-and-a-half weeks, waits for no man - as James Anderson has discovered to his cost. The spectacle of a great mid-series comeback, of England's best bowler returning alongside Australia's best batsman, has been quashed by Anderson's troublesome calf, and Stuart Broad's dream "that he would be back and open the bowling at the James Anderson End, and bowl us to victory" is destined never to become a reality.

Instead, it is Australia that go to Manchester with their key man returning. If Steven Smith's absence due to concussion was not as keenly felt as Justin Langer might have initially feared at Headingley, the pace at which England managed to expose Australia's weak underbelly of a lower-middle order was slowed only by a pair of battling fifties by Marnus Labuschagne, who proved as apt a like-for-like replacement as could have been hoped for.

Labuschagne's reward will be a move back up the order to No. 3, where he batted at the SCG against India at the start of the year, while Usman Khawaja has paid the price for extending his poor record in England, as Smith slots back into the middle order. He is sure to be met with some hostility from Rajasthan Royals team-mate Jofra Archer, who said last week that there would be "more than ample time to get him out" in the series after Smith's jibe that he was yet to do so.

With the best batsman in the world returning - and it's now official again - Australia can remind themselves that they are still only one win away from retaining the urn, and remember that but for one of the great individual efforts in Test history, they would have done so already. The wounds opened up in England's first-innings effort of 67 all out have been patched up with little more than a sticking plaster, and after plenty of time off to get "cherry ripe", the seam attack will be raring to go.

The exact make-up of the bowling attack is yet to be confirmed, with Peter Siddle and Mitchell Starc going head-to-head for the final spot, while Nathan Lyon has recovered from a niggling ankle injury and will be thrust back into the spotlight, no doubt with the added pressure of the Manchester crowd on his back after that fumbled run-out attempt in Leeds.

England, meanwhile, have stuck to their theory that their current batting line-up comprises "the best seven batters available to us at the moment" but have decided that Joe Denly - who is surely the only man to become a Test opener by improving his part-time legspin - should switch roles with Jason Roy. If there appears to be some logic to the move, with Roy less likely to be exposed against the moving ball, it should be remembered that Denly has not opened regularly in first-class cricket since 2015; that captain Joe Root has a substantially better record at four than a three; and that Roy's most recent red-ball hundred came at number three.

With the ball, England have opted for a change, naming Craig Overton in their XI, with Chris Woakes paying the price for an expensive display in the first innings at Headingley. While Sam Curran had game-changing lower-order runs and a left-arm angle in his favour, Overton's impressive County Championship form and Ashes experience made him a reasonably compelling alternative.

In truth, though, neither has been afforded an opportunity to stake much of a claim in recent months; that Australia's back-up seamer Michael Neser has played more first-class games than both Curran and Overton in the past five weeks is a damning indictment on the county schedule's suitability.

Form guide

England WDLWW (last five completed matches, most recent first)
Australia LDWWW

In the spotlight

If Ben Stokes' World Cup feats meant that England were more than used to pinning their hopes on him, the burden will only have increased after his heroics at Headingley. Stokes' record at Old Trafford is mediocre - he has one 50 in six first-class innings with an average of 29.33, and two Test wickets at 60 apiece there - but if we have learned anything from Stokes it is that his ability is reflected poorly by conventional statistics. With 258 runs for one dismissal in his last three innings, Stokes is bound to revert to more human numbers soon; England will be desperate for him to keep riding the wave for a few weeks more.

Only one Test into his Ashes career, Marcus Harris finds himself under pressure having kept his spot for Manchester despite an expectation that Khawaja would move up to open. In an alternative timeline, Harris would have been the hero after clinging on to a brilliant catch diving forward at third man to dismiss Stokes at Headingley, but instead needs to combat a perceived weakness against right-arm seamers from around the wicket. He was dismissed twice by Jasprit Bumrah and once by Mohammed Shami from that angle in his debut series, and fell to Archer from that angle in the third Test; expect England to keep on using that as Plan A against him.

Team news

Joe Root confirmed England's XI on the eve of the Test, with Overton likely to slot in at No. 8 above Archer after replacing Woakes. Jos Buttler is set to continue at No. 7, below Stokes and Jonny Bairstow in England's engine room.

England: 1 Rory Burns, 2 Joe Denly, 3 Joe Root (capt), 4 Jason Roy, 5 Ben Stokes, 6 Jonny Bairstow (wk), 7 Jos Buttler, 8 Craig Overton, 9 Jofra Archer, 10 Stuart Broad, 11 Jack Leach.

Australia's decision to leave Khawaja out of their side for Old Trafford raised a few eyebrows, not least with Matthew Wade keeping his place in the middle order. Tim Paine suggested a late decision would be made as to whether Starc or Siddle plays as the third seamer, but Starc is the favourite after spending the first three Tests on the periphery.

Australia: 1 David Warner, 2 Marcus Harris, 3 Marnus Labuschagne, 4 Steven Smith, 5 Travis Head, 6 Matthew Wade, 7 Tim Paine (capt & wk), 8 Pat Cummins, 9 Peter Siddle/Mitchell Starc, 10 Josh Hazlewood, 11 Nathan Lyon.

Pitch and conditions

The Old Trafford pitch looked a bit cracked and largely free of grass, suggesting it should be a good batting pitch, and certainly one that the winning captain would be expected to bat first on. It is sufficiently dry that the sides might have considered a second spinner in different circumstances, but with Australia only naming one spin bowler in their touring party, Moeen Ali out of form, and Adil Rashid injured, the Test will largely be dominated by seam.

The forecast is mixed for the five days, with conditions overcast at best for the most part. Friday in particular looks set to be threatened by rain.

Stats that matter

• England last won an Ashes Test at Old Trafford in 1981, when Ian Botham hit a 102-ball 118 in a 103-run victory.

• Seamers have outperformed spinners at Old Trafford in the past ten years, averaging 27.62 compared to 39.21.

• No English ground has a higher scoring rate in Tests than Old Trafford in the last decade (3.46 runs per over).

• David Warner averages 39.51 against right-arm seamers from around the wicket in Tests, compared to 58.63 over the wicket.

• Craig Overton and Jack Leach have played together 48 times in first-class cricket for Somerset, winning 18 and losing only nine of those games.

Quotes

"We've thought long and hard about our top order. I feel like we have the right players, but reshuffling it is going to be what really works for us and gets off to a strong start. Look at someone like Jason coming in lower down and the ability to play in his manner - more freely when it's not doing as much - might give him a better chance."
Joe Root, England's captain, thinks changing the batting order will be the final piece in the jigsaw

"I thought the way our group engaged in that and were really honest with each other, and the way that guys who had to look at some pretty ordinary stuff copped it on the chin and realised that it's coming from a good place and a place where we want everyone to really improve - I thought the group handled that really well, and we have learned some valuable lessons from the last Test match."
Australia captain Tim Paine says the team are all the better for their Headingely post-mortem

Paul Stirling will leave Middlesex at the end of the season after committing his future to Ireland.

With Irish players no longer qualifying as non-overseas players in county cricket from next year, it had been suggested that players like Stirling would renew their county contracts and give up international cricket.

But Stirling - who captained Ireland in T20 cricket earlier in the year - has signed a new international contract, ending ten years of association with Middlesex.

Stirling said: "It's been a real privilege to represent Middlesex over the last decade, and it has been an unforgettable journey for many reasons. Winning the Championship in 2016 was undoubtedly the highlight on the field, while also receiving my county cap will be something I will cherish for a very long time.

"However, it was the relationships built with the players, staff and supporters that was the most rewarding, and that I will miss the most.

"I am looking forward to the next chapter with Ireland, with a busy year in 2020 and the T20 World Cup Qualifier coming up it is an exciting time to be a part of."

Angus Fraser, Middlesex's director of cricket, said that everyone at the club "fully respects Paul's decision" and that the coaching staff fully understood the reasoning behind it.

"From a selfish and Middlesex point of view it is obviously sad to see Paul leave," said Fraser. "His aggressive and destructive batting has thrilled Middlesex players and supporters for a number of years.

"The Middlesex coaches and myself totally understand Paul's decision. It has not been an easy one and I know he has thought about it long and hard. Playing for your country is something that should never be taken for granted. It is an honour and a privilege, and to finish a career with regrets is something nobody wants to do.

"He will always be welcome at Lord's and if he ever feels like coming back to play for us in any capacity he has my phone number."

Stirling's team-mate Tim Murtagh is yet to make a decision whether to continue playing international cricket or whether to renew his Middlesex deal.

"It's getting to the stage where we have to choose one or the other and I haven't really made my mind up yet," Murtagh told the Wisden Cricket Weekly podcast in August.

"There are still discussions to be had with both sides but unfortunately that loophole has been shut and we can't continue playing in county cricket as local players. I'm going to have to make quite a tough decision at the end of the summer and decide which way I want to keep going."

Toss Sri Lanka chose to bat v New Zealand

Sri Lanka won the toss and chose to bat first in the second T20I in Pallekele, just as they had in the first match.

Both teams have made one change each. The hosts have swapped out seam bowler Kasun Rajitha for left-arm wristspinner Lakshan Sandakan, perhaps expecting this track to take significant turn. New Zealand, meanwhile, have been forced to leave out Ross Taylor, their top scorer on Sunday, on account of an injury. Tom Bruce comes into the XI in his stead.

Sri Lanka must win this match in order to stay in the three-match series, having lost the first game comfortably on Sunday.

Sri Lanka: 1 Kusal Mendis, 2 Kusal Perera (wk), 3 Avishka Fernando, 4 Niroshan Dickwella, 5 Shehan Jayasuriya, 6 Dasun Shanaka, 7 Wanindu Hasaranga, 8 Isuru Udana, 9 Akila Dananjaya, 10 Lasith Malinga (capt), 11 Lakshan Sandakan

New Zealand: 1 Martin Guptill, 2 Colin Munro, 3 Tim Seifert (wk), 4 Colin de Grandhomme, 5 Tom Bruce, 6 Daryl Mitchell, 7 Mitchell Santner, 8 Scott Kuggeleijn, 9 Seth Rance, 10 Tim Southee (capt), 11 Ish Sodhi

Sarfaraz Ahmed (Sindh), Babar Azam (Central Punjab), Shan Masood (Southern Punjab), Imad Wasim (Northern), Mohammad Rizwan (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) and Haris Sohail (Balochistan) will lead six provinces in a new, streamlined domestic season set to begin next week. The welcome prospect of Pakistan's elite players taking part in the Quaid-e-Azam Trophy - from September 14 - is partially offset by the reduction in the number of players who can call themselves first-class cricketers this season: 96, down from 256 last season.

According to the PCB's new model, each of the six associations will have a pool of approximately 35 players, split in half between first-class and non-first-class categories. In all 192 players will be offered a year-long contract (in each province Pakistan's centrally contracted national players such as Sarfaraz, Babar, Haris and others, do not get paid the provincial contract fees), with half playing first-class cricket and the other half playing three-day games, which don't have first-class status, for their association's Second XI.

The old model, which included 16 regional and departmental teams playing first-class cricket, was officially scrapped by the PCB last week.

Given that department sides have long employed the country's best players - because they can afford to pay more - a large majority of the 192 players selected are those who were playing for department sides last year; many of the players who populated the regional sides last year don't make the cut. Performances from the last three years of first-class cricket, the last two years from List-A cricket, and the last four years of under-19 cricket were taken into consideration before the squads were named.

Both squads - the First XI and the Second XI - for each association was finalised by a three-member panel comprising of Misbah-ul-Haq, Rashid Latif and Nadeem Khan. The provisional squads list was put together earlier by the ex-selection committee members - Tauseef Ahmed, Wajahatullah Wasti and Wasim Haider - and the present junior selection committee - Saleem Jaffer, Arshad Khan, Rao Iftikhar, and Taufeeq Umar - alongside the regional coaches.

Last year, 69 first-class games were played. Under the new structure, this season there will be 31 first-class games, and 16 T20s and 31 one-dayers. The squad for each of these formats will be selected from within the extended squad. The domestic season starts on September 14, with the first-class teams and Second XIs playing concurrently.

The Second XI's version of the country's premier first-class tournament, the Quaid-e-Azam Trophy, will include 30 three-day group matches, with a four-day final contested at Karachi's State Bank Stadium from November 26.

Balochistan Cricket Association

First XI: Haris Sohail (c), Imran Farhat (vc), Abu Bakar, Ali Shafiq, Ammad Butt, Asif Zakir, Azeem Ghumman, Bismillah Khan (wk), Hussain Talat, Imam-ul-Haq, Imran Butt, Khurram Shehzad, Mohammad Asghar, Shahbaz Khan, Shahzaib Ahmed Khan, Taimur Khan, Taj Wali, Umar Gul, Yasir Shah

Second XI: Akbar-ur-Rehman (c), Akhtar Shah, Atif Jabbar, Awais Zia, Dawood Khan, Fahad Iqbal, Gohar Faiz, Gulraiz Sadaf (wk), Haseeb Azam, Jalat Khan, Mohammad Junaid, Nazar Hussain, Rameez Raja (from Pishin), Shehzad Tareen, Taimur Ali, Usama Razzaq

White-ball specialists: Akif Javed, Ibtisam Sheikh, Mohammad Talha

Central Punjab Cricket Association

First XI: Babar Azam (c), Ahmed Shehzad (vc), Ahmed Bashir, Ali Shan, Azhar Ali, Bilal Asif, Ehsan Adil, Fahim Ashraf, Hassan Ali, Kamran Akmal (wk), Mohammad Saad, Nasim Shah, Rizwan Hussain, Saad Naseem, Salman Butt, Umar Akmal, Usman Salahuddin, Waqas Maqsood, Zafar Gohar

Second XI: Ali Waqas (c), Abdullah Shafiq, Ahmed Safi Abdullah, Aizaz Cheema (mentor), Ali Zaryab, Asad Raza, Atiq-ur-Rehman, Ayaz Tasawar, Bilawal Iqbal, Farhan Khan (wk), Irfan Niazi, Mohammad Akhlaq, Mohammad Ali (from ZTBL), Raza Ali Dar, Suleman Shafqat, Zahid Mansoor

White-ball specialists: Nasir Nawaz, Nauman Anwar, Usman Qadir (subject to availability)

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Cricket Association

First XI: Mohammad Rizwan (c), Sahibzada Farhan (vc) Adil Amin, Ashfaq Ahmed, Fakhar Zaman, Iftikhar Ahmed, Imran Khan Sr, Irfan Khan, Israr Ullah, Junaid Khan, Kamran Ghulam, Mohammad Ilyas, Musaddiq Ahmed, Nabi Gul, Rehan Afridi (wk), Sameen Gul, Umar Khan, Usman Khan Shinwari, Zohaib Khan

Second XI: Khushdil Shah (c), Ahmed Jamal, Akbar Badshah, Arshad Iqbal, Asad Afridi, Asif Afridi, Atizaz Habib Khan, Azizullah (from Peshawar), Gohar Ali (wk), Irfanullah Shah, Khalid Usman, Mehran Ibrahim, Mohammad Mohsin Khan, Mohammad Naeem (from FATA), Sajid Khan, Samiullah Jr

White-ball specialists: Imran Khan Jr, Mohammad Arif, Mohammad Mohsin

Northern Cricket Association

First XI: Imad Wasim (c), Umar Amin (vc), Afaq Raheem, Ali Asad, Ali Sarfraz, Asif Ali, Haider Ali, Hammad Azam, Haris Rauf, Mohammad Nawaz, Musa Khan, Nauman Ali, Rohail Nazir (wk), Sadaf Hussain, Shadab Khan, Shaheen Shah, Sohail Tanvir, Umar Waheed, Waqas Ahmed

Second XI: Faizan Riaz (c), Ali Imran, Hasan Raza, Jamal Anwar (wk), Naved Malik, Raza Hasan, Salman Irshad, Sarmad Bhatti, Shadab Majeed, Shehzad Azam, Shoaib Ahmed Minhas, Syed Tauseeq Shah, Umair Khan, Umair Masood (wc), Usama Mir, Zeeshan Malik

White-ball specialists: Mohammad Amir, Sohail Akhtar, Zaid Alam

Sindh Cricket Association

First XI: Sarfaraz Ahmad (c), Asad Shafiq (vc), Abid Ali, Anwar Ali, Fawad Alam, Hasan Mohsin, Kashif Bhatti, Khurram Manzoor, Mir Hamza, Mohammad Hasan, Mohammad Hasnain, Omair Bin Yousuf, Rameez Aziz, Saad Ali, Saud Shakeel, Shehzar Mohammad, Sohail Khan, Tabish Khan, Waleed Ahmed

Second XI: Mohammad Sami (captain and mentor), Rameez Raja Jr (vc), Adeel Malik, Ahsan Ali, Ammad Alam, Ashiq Ali, Ashir Qureshi, Danish Aziz, Ghulam Muddasar, Hassan Khan, Jahid Ali, Mohammad Suleman, Mohammad Waqas, Rumman Raees, Saad Khan, Saifullah Bangash (wk)

White-ball specialists: Abrar Ahmed, Ahsan Jamil Mirza, Shahnawaz Dahani

Southern Punjab Cricket Association

First XI: Shan Masood (c), Sami Aslam (vc), Abdul Rehman Muzammil, Adnan Akmal (wk), Amir Yamin, Bilawal Bhatti, Imran Rafiq, M Irfan (slow left-arm), M Irfan Sr (left-arm fast medium), Mohammad Hafeez, Mohammad Abbas, Rahat Ali, Saif Badar, Sohaib Maqsood, Umaid Asif, Umar Siddiq, Wahab Riaz, Zahid Mehmood, Zain Abbas

Second XI: Naved Yasin (c), Salman Ali Agha (vc), Ali Usman, Anas Mustafa, Ataullah, Maqbool Ahmed (wk), Mohammad Ali Khan, Mohammad Basit, Mohammad Imran, Mohammad Irfan Jr, Mohammad Mohsin (from Lahore), Mohammad Umair, Mukhtar Ahmed, Zeeshan Ashraf, Zia-ul-Haq, Zulfiqar Babar (mentor)

White-ball specialists: Ali Khan, Shoaib Malik, Sadaif Mehdi

Australia's captain Tim Paine has publicly conceded for the first time that he misjudged the thrilling conclusion of the Headingley Test, admitting he had not pressured Ben Stokes enough by keeping fielders up to the bat and at the same time allowing the England allrounder to farm the strike away from the last man Jack Leach.

While explaining why Usman Khawaja had been dropped for the Old Trafford Test to make way for the return of Steven Smith from a concussion, Paine admitted that he had been forced to face some harsh truths in Australia's post-Leeds discussions about the way he had led the team at the most critical moment, one wicket away from securing the Ashes in the space of three Test matches.

"I would do something differently with my field placings," Paine said. "There was times looking back at it where it was really obvious I should've had the field up and allowed Ben even to hit a couple of boundaries so we had more balls at the tailender. But I didn't do that. The mistake's been made, we've moved on, we've learned from it, but that would've been the main thing I would've done differently.

"We made some mistakes, it happens, we've addressed it as a team, we've spoken about it honestly. I was certainly one of those people who made mistakes, it happens in cricket, we've moved on and we're here ready for a great Test match."

The decision to drop Khawaja, arrived at during discussions between Paine, coach Justin Langer selection chairman Trevor Hohns two days out from the match, was both an admission of English dominance against a top order stacked with left-handers and also a conclusion on the No. 3's ability to handle the moving Dukes ball, which on average tends to deviate a significant amount more than the Kookaburra both in the air and off the pitch.

"Usman's obviously a key player in our side batting at No. 3 and he hasn't scored the runs that he or we would like," Paine said. "So with Steve Smith coming back it was a tough decision to make on Usman, but we think he's still got a lot of cricket left in him, he's had a very good Test record over his career, and we expect he will bounce back pretty strongly.

"I give my opinion, it's only been spoken about that I've been aware of this week, Us hasn't scored the runs that he would like and we would like from him and it's unfortunate for him that Steve Smith missed the last Test, and when a player that good is coming back someone's got to make way. It's a good thing for us that we've got a player of Usman's quality on the sidelines, it means we're getting our team to where we want to be and we want our selectors making hard decisions."

At the same time, Paine said it would have been a difficult call to drop Marcus Harris after one match, even though, having not made a century and averaging less than 30 after seven Tests, he has a much inferior record to Khawaja. "I think so, you're not going to change your order too much," Paine said. "Marcus came in, played one Test, I think it would have been hard to then leave him out straightaway. He played okay, he would've liked a few more runs as well, but we think Harry's had a decent start to his Test-match career and we think he's got a lot of talent and we think he's going to convert that into a lot of Test runs."

Australia's attitude to batting in this series has at times looked preoccupied by survival, and Paine said it was important for the tourists to get the right balance between diligent defence and natural attack over the next five days. "I don't think it's about buying time, it's about scoring runs," he said. "And whether you're David Warner and you score a hundred off 80 balls, or if you're Marcus Harris or Rory Burns and it takes time, it's important that when you play in England you stick to what works for you.

"I think at times that's what's brought people undone. They've come over here and tried to play in a completely different way rather than just try and adjust to what's coming at you. Don't go out there with any preconceived ideas about swing and the Dukes ball, and the wickets over here. It's the same distance, with the stumps behind you, and it's about watching the ball and playing the way you play. We're just driving that home to our batters at the moment. Obviously we'd like some more runs out of our top order, and England are the same."

Mitchell Starc is closer than ever to taking part in the series, though once again he will have to be part of a four-man bowling attack due to the continued omission of the allrounder Mitchell Marsh. Paine said that one further look at the Manchester surface would be required before a final decision is made. "He's in the 12 so he's close. We'll have another look at that wicket, it looks pretty dry," Paine said. "Hopefully it's got a bit of pace in it, but Starcy bowled superbly last week down at Derby.

"He's been working really hard at getting his length right and we were really impressed with what he did down there, he held his pace back a little bit, got the ball in the right area and swung it when he needed to, then we know what he can do to tail-end batters when he really cranks it up. the boys have been calling him 'The Mop' for a few years now, that's a thing he does really well, and even when you've got a couple of set batters you've got a big, tall left-armer who can bowl 150kph and can shake things up a little bit.

"He's a great option for us, we think this wicket might suit him, and if we make that call we're sure he'll do a great job as he has over his whole career."

As for Australia's overall Ashes blueprint, which had held up to within a single wicket of retaining the urn at Headingley, Paine remained adamant that his men would stay the course. "We are doing a lot of things right, we know that," he said.

"We know where we made some errors in the last Test match, but on the whole - when you look at the way we played our cricket and the numbers and things we look at and mark ourselves on - we've been doing them really well. that's why we've been in positions to win Test matches, we've just got to be better at finishing the job. Like we didn't do last week. We've learned from that and we'll be better for it."

RENTON, Wash. -- The deal that brought Jadeveon Clowney to the Seattle Seahawks came down to the wire, according to coach Pete Carroll, and had been on general manager John Schneider's radar for several months before it was completed over the weekend.

In between, an important phone call from Duane Brown helped make it happen.

Brown selling Clowney on the city and the team helped the Seahawks land the Pro Bowl pass-rusher, capping off an eventful six months during which he was franchise-tagged by the Houston Texans, stayed away from them as he sought a long-term deal, and met with the Miami Dolphins before Seattle won out.

"Phew," Clowney said when asked how crazy the process that led him to Seattle has been. "Very crazy."

He spoke with reporters Monday, having taken off the No. 91 jersey that he wore during his first practice with the team, one number higher than what he wore for his five seasons in Houston. Carroll said Clowney is in line to play in Sunday's opener against the visiting Cincinnati Bengals.

"He's a rare football player," Carroll said of Clowney, who has made three consecutive Pro Bowls and totaled 18.5 sacks over the past two seasons. "He's got special skills that most guys just don't have. It's great quickness, his reaction time, the length that he can use, his ability to run, his instincts. He's made a lot of plays in the backfield over the years, instinctive plays, penetrating and causing problems, and we plan to allow him to do that in our scheme. It'll fit really well with what we're doing. We saw a great fit whether it's third down or early downs. So he's pretty much got what you're looking for."

It was about a month ago that Clowney got a call from Brown, his teammate in Houston from his 2014 rookie season to when Brown was dealt to Seattle at the trade deadline in 2017. Clowney asked Brown how he likes it in Seattle.

"He was like, 'You need to come play with us. You'll love it here. Great weather. It's not hot like Houston. Great fan support. Other great teammates on this team. Come be a part of something great,'" Clowney recalled. "I was like, 'Man, you know what? I'm going to look into that, try to get up there with you guys.'"

And as a franchise-tagged player who had yet to sign his tender -- meaning he wasn't under contract and couldn't be traded until he was -- Clowney had a great deal of say about where he would end up. That was the idea all along.

"I just really tried to take control of what I could control, as far as where could I play at and how could I be traded, as far as that," he said. "I was just taking that into consideration. It was like, 'If I don't sign the tag, maybe I could decide where I end up going,' and I got somewhere I wanted to be. That's what happened."

In addition to Brown giving his recruiting pitch, he gave the Seahawks his stamp of approval on Clowney. Specifically, Carroll said Brown vouched for Clowney's work ethic, the subject of questions earlier in his career.

"Without question, Duane helped us through the process in making us know who we're dealing with and the player he used to practice against and his capabilities, potential habits, background, family," Carroll said. "We really had a lot of insights because of Duane."

ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that the Texans gave Clowney a $7 million signing bonus and that the Seahawks are paying him only an $8 million salary. Carroll confirmed Schefter's report that the Seahawks agreed not to franchise Clowney, 26, at the end of this season, calling it something they had to do to get the deal done. He lauded Schneider's persistence in pursuing Clowney and the job he and vice president of football administration Matt Thomas did in completing the trade with all the moving parts surrounding the Saturday afternoon deadline for teams to set trim their rosters to 53.

"There was about 20 seconds before 1 o'clock [Sunday]," he said. "It was right to the nub. We're a long ways away from Houston, and a lot of stuff could happen in between, and really, we're all sitting in the office up there. J.D. is there and his agent and Matt and John and I, and we're sitting there looking at the clock, waiting for the word to come back. So it was really, there was a lot of drama to it. So it was fun that we were able to pull it off, and really, we didn't know right until the very end."

Clowney cited the appeal of playing with Russell Wilson as a factor in wanting to join the Seahawks, along with getting to play end in Carroll's 4-3 defense. Clowney -- listed on Seattle's roster at 6-foot-5 and 255 pounds -- said he can put on weight knowing he won't have to drop into coverage against tight ends as he frequently did as an outside linebacker in Houston's 3-4.

Carroll said there's "no question he's really in good shape" based on what he has seen from Clowney so far. Clowney trained for the bulk of the offseason in Miami and more recently in Houston.

"I know that Jadeveon was really concerned about being ready for this season coming up," Carroll said. "He would tell you he put together the best offseason he's ever had. ... He was really healthy going through the process with the physical and all that kind of stuff, so he's in great shape in that regard. Everything is really positive."

Carroll said there is "without question" a chance Clowney remains a part of Seattle's plans beyond 2019. Clowney punted on that when he was asked about it, saying he isn't thinking that far ahead.

"I'm still trying to figure out where the cafeteria is at and where the locker room is," he said with a laugh. "It's all confusing."

Clowney's first priority: getting up to speed in Seattle's scheme in time to play Sunday, when he'll line up on the opposite end from fellow newcomer Ziggy Ansah, provided neither player has any setbacks in practice this week.

When asked if he could have imagined his situation working out better than it did once he decided he wanted out of Houston, Clowney offered a clarification.

"I don't think I decided that," he said. "They decided that. I didn't have no say-so in that. I just held the cards of where I end [up] playing at. They decided to get me out.

"But like I said, I'm thankful for the opportunity I had in Houston. They drafted me No. 1 overall. Great opportunities down there. I met some great guys on that staff and great, great teammates. I'm just glad to be part of this team now. I'm just trying to look forward. I ain't looking back."

FRISCO, Texas -- With contract talks focused primarily on Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott, the Dallas Cowboys have agreed on a five-year extension with another key piece, right tackle La'el Collins.

Cowboys owner Jerry Jones confirmed Tuesday to 105.3 The Fan in Dallas that the sides had "come to terms" on a deal.

Jones did not discuss terms of the deal, but ESPN's Adam Schefter reports that Collins will sign a five-year, $50 million extension that will keep him under contract for the next six years. The deal also includes $35 million in guaranteed money, the highest guarantee in NFL history given to a right tackle, according to Schefter.

"(Collins) has done nothing but make his mark," Jones told 105.3 The Fan. "Hes' the enforcer, as (offensive line coach Marc) Colombo refers to him lovingly, on the offensive line."

The extension created $5.7 million of cap space for the Cowboys, according to Schefter.

Two weeks ago, the Cowboys signed linebacker Jaylon Smith to a five-year, $64 million extension with $35.3 million guaranteed.

The deal with Collins is a little more surprising because of the contracts the Cowboys have laid out for Pro Bowl offensive linemen Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick and Zack Martin. All three are among the highest-paid at their positions, which would seem to have made it difficult to keep Collins while also aiming to keep Elliott, Prescott, Amari Cooper and others. Smith is in the midst of an eight-year $96 million deal; Frederick is in a six-year, $56 million deal; Martin signed a six-year, $84 million deal last year.

This is the third contract Collins has signed with the Cowboys. He initially joined the team as an undrafted free agent in 2015. In 2017, he signed a two-year extension that included $15.4 million in guaranteed money. He was set to make $8.5 million this year.

On Monday, Collins was asked about his decision to join the Cowboys in 2015.

"Obviously I think this is been one of the best things that happened to me going in," Collins said. "For me, it prolonged my career in a way of the coaching I've been able to get since I've been here, coming in working with Coach Frank [Pollack] the way he helped me develop as a player, the way Coach Colombo helped me develop as a player. Just learning some things from those guys, learning things from veteran guys when I got here has really helped me. I wouldn't trade it for the world. So I'm excited to be where I am in my career right now going into Year 5, Year 3 at right tackle. I'm just ready to go out there and show what kind of player I am this year and what kind of unit we are as a group."

Collins has started 46 of the 47 games he has played for the Cowboys, including the past 32 at right tackle. He started only three games at guard in 2016 because of a toe injury and started 11 games as a rookie.

The Cowboys continue to hope to get deals done with Elliott and Prescott before Sunday's season opener. Talks with Cooper have not progressed much, but something could still get worked out during the season.

Of the three, Elliott's deal could be the closest because the sides had been working toward an agreement over the holiday weekend. The Cowboys held their first practice Monday in preparation for the Giants game; players are off on Tuesday.

Jerry Jones indicated that the Dallas Cowboys have made some progress in their contract talks with Ezekiel Elliott, saying that he was "hopeful" to have the star running back available to play in Sunday's season opener.

A source told ESPN's Ed Werder earlier Tuesday that the Cowboys and Elliott are working well together on the contract talks, but there's "serious work left."

ESPN also has confirmed multiple reports that Elliott is traveling to Dallas in order to be present to sign a contract Tuesday if the sides agree to a deal.

Jones, the Cowboys' owner and general manager, said his team is preparing "with the people that we have out here now" for their opener against the New York Giants but also noted that it "would be great" if Dallas could include Elliott in its Week 1 game plan.

"We'll see how today goes," Jones told 105.3 The Fan in Dallas. "We'll see how tomorrow goes. We'll see how the ensuing hours pan out."

The Cowboys on Monday signed right tackle La'el Collins to a five-year extension, which created $5.7 million in cap space for the team this season, a source told ESPN's Adam Schefter.

Normally when we project out the NFL season, we provide a percentage chance of an event occurring -- it's all degrees of maybe. But there's no maybe today.

Before each season, we simulate the entire NFL slate 20,000 times using the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI), our prediction and projection system. In the preseason, it is based on a few factors, including each team's preseason win total matched with its schedule, past performance in all three phases of the game, returning starters and who the starting and backup quarterbacks are expected to be. Altogether that gets us a strength rating for every team, which we in turn use to determine game predictions and the likelihood of one team beating another.

Today, we took just one of those 20,000 season-long simulations -- No. 1,721 -- and played out the entire slate with final scores for all 267 games. And we baked a little creative license into the details along the way. Consider it another way to preview what this 2019 NFL season might look like. Let's dive into the 2019 season, starting with a handful of upsets and a standout rookie performance in Week 1.

Jump to Week:
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9
10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17
Final standings | Playoffs
Super Bowl LIV

Week 1

Aaron Rodgers, Packers hold off Bears in opener: Unlike last year's opening-week battle, the Packers won't need a valiant comeback to edge Chicago. Green Bay's offensive line is able to keep Rodgers upright in its 34-27 victory. The Bears were able to recover from a devastating Week 1 defeat last time ... can they do it again?

Kyler and Kliff flourish in debut: At least on this night, the Lions looked like a Big 12 defense trying and failing to stop Kliff Kingsbury's new Air Raid offense. Kyler Murray slices and dices Detroit with his arms and legs in the blowout 36-10 win, quickly causing fans to forget his preseason inconsistency and remind them why he won the Heisman Trophy and went No. 1 overall in April's draft.

Texans edge Saints: Deshaun Watson outplays Drew Brees in a Week 1 barnburner, torching the Saints' secondary in a 34-33 win and delivering an early blow to a Super Bowl hopeful. Remember when the Buccaneers did the same to New Orleans in 2018? The Saints rebounded with 10 straight wins.

Slow start for Pats, Rams: Could it be a Super Bowl hangover? Bill Belichick's and Sean McVay's teams stumble out of the gate, but no one is worried about either team ... yet.

Week 2

Sweet, sweet revenge for New Orleans: In a rematch of the NFC Championship Game, the Saints avenge their loss and make sure that a stray pass interference call (or lack thereof) can't get in the way, as they smack down the Rams 27-3.

Worried yet, New England? The defending Super Bowl champs drop another game, this time a 38-28 defeat at the hands of a (2-0!) Miami team that at least seemed in the preseason to be effectively tanking. But FitzMagic doesn't go down without a fight.

Raiders stun Chiefs, man: Jon Gruden can't stop smirking after Derek Carr and his Oakland team get the best of Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs 27-20. Oakland is out of the gate strong with a 2-0 start.

Week 3

Browns living up to the hype: Beating the Titans and Jets was one thing, but taking down the Rams 17-7 in primetime has the league breaking out in Cleveland fever. Jarvis Landry hands out Bless 'Ems to every one of his teammates. They're riding high at 3-0.

Bears, Rams drop to 0-3: Mitchell Trubisky's QBR has taken a precipitous drop, while the Chicago defense has regressed to the mean. Both of those events were fairly expected. But L.A.'s nightmare start? That came out of nowhere. Suddenly the Cardinals say Kliff Kingsbury and Sean McVay weren't like best friends or anything. Only regular friends. Maybe even just acquaintances.

Marcus Mariota puts up 51 on Jaguars: A once-elite defense is torched by a never-considered-elite offense, as the Titans flex a completely unexpected level of firepower. And their 2-1 record is all the more impressive considering their lone loss came against the clearly unbeatable Browns.

Seahawks' defense sends them to winless start: Russell Wilson and the team's offense is doing enough, but the defense continues its early-season struggles -- even after trading for Jadeveon Clowney. After a shocking Week 1 loss to the Bengals and a tough defeat against Pittsburgh, the Seahawks falter again in a Week 3 loss to New Orleans.

Week 4

Packers fans are plenty R-E-L-A-X-E-D: A 44-7 win over the Eagles on Thursday Night Football gives the Packers a 4-0 start, although it has come with a shade less buzz than the Browns' undefeated start (they trounced the Ravens 45-17). Mike McCarthy's job prospects dim.

Your first place ... Miami Dolphins? This was not how "Tank for Tua" was supposed to go. But then again, we've seen this story with FitzMagic before. Don't worry, we know how this ends: In a blaze of interceptions. The Dolphins sit at 3-1, even after dealing Laremy Tunsil and Kenny Stills right before the season began.

Back pages call for Daniel Jones: Pat Shurmur resists, telling reporters he's sticking with Eli Manning as the 1-3 Giants' quarterback after Big Blue's 23-17 loss to the (suddenly 3-1) Redskins.

Week 5

Browns finally lose: Cleveland was due for a reality check at some point, and it comes in Week 5. Meanwhile, Green Bay edges out Dallas 27-22 as the only undefeated team left in the league.

New Orleans rebounds: Ever since their last-minute loss to Houston in Week 1, Drew Brees has had the Saints clicking at 4-1. Three of the team's four wins have been by more than a touchdown, too.

Jones enters: With a goose egg on the scoreboard late in the third quarter, Shurmur obliges the chanting fans at MetLife Stadium and puts Jones in at quarterback. The game ends in a shutout, but the impact stretches beyond Week 5: Shurmur announces Jones is now the starter.

Week 6

Murray bests Matt Ryan in shootout: It hasn't all gone smooth for the Cardinals since their opening-week wonders, but the Arizona offense gets it together against Atlanta in a 44-41 overtime victory. Both teams are 3-3 after six games.

Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper contained by Jets: The Cowboys can't find the end zone and drop to 2-4 on the season. The Jets' secondary -- including not only Jamal Adams but also last year's disappointment, Trumaine Johnson -- shuts down the Dallas passing attack in a 20-3 win. Gang Green opened with a three-game losing streak but have now won two in a row coming out of their bye.

Lions continue to flounder: Two zeroes remain in the standings, as the Packers make quick work of the Lions to improve to 6-0. Detroit, meanwhile, falls to 0-5. Fans ponder calling for a quarterback change, but then remember Josh Johnson is Matthew Stafford's backup.

Denver loses its fifth game: The Broncos lose their fifth of six in the Joe Flacco era, as the Titans score 36 on Von Miller, Bradley Chubb and the Denver defense. Coach Vic Fangio continues looking for answers at Mile High. Meanwhile, the Titans' win puts them in a three-way tie atop the AFC South at 4-2.

Week 7

Playoff Nick Foles, checking in: Jacksonville drops 38 on the Bengals, marking the third consecutive week the Jags have put up at least that many points. And each have ended with a win. The Jaguars move to 5-2, matching the Titans' record in the division.

Jay Gruden switches it up: After Washington's third consecutive loss (3-4) with Case Keenum at the helm -- this time a 38-21 defeat at the hands of the 49ers -- Gruden announces that Dwayne Haskins will make his much-anticipated debut next week against the Vikings. He's the third rookie QB to be named starter, and it's only Week 7.

Patrick Mahomes has an off day: Mahomes throws three interceptions -- one turns into a pick-six -- in a 34-3 loss to the Broncos. It's the worst performance of his career and not a good sign for next week's meeting with the undefeated Packers. The Chiefs are still 5-2 atop the AFC West, though.

Jones picks up his first win ... over Murray: In college, Jones and Murray weren't considered anywhere near the same level. But in the first bout between the two top-six overall picks, the former Duke QB comes out on top, beating last year's Heisman winner and the Cardinals 28-20. It's the Giants' second win of the season, while the Cards fall to 3-4.

Week 8

Rodgers rolls over Mahomes, Chiefs: Mahomes is no match for the red-hot and revitalized Rodgers. Rodgers becomes a consensus -1,000 favorite to win the MVP, as most consider it a foregone conclusion at this point. Green Bay is flying at 8-0.

Another old guard beats the new: After undergoing their typical September swoon, the Pats are back. And they prove it with a 17-10 win over Mayfield and the Browns. New England is in first place in the AFC East, though only a half-game up on the Dolphins at 6-2. Cleveland is up a game on the Steelers in the North at 5-2.

Falcons take the lead in NFC South: After the 4-4 Saints drop a close contest to the Cardinals and the Falcons beat the Seahawks by a touchdown, Atlanta gains sole possession of first place in the division at 5-3.

Week 9

Chargers become first to down the Packers: Philip Rivers and the Chargers' offense are too much for Rodgers & Co., as they surprisingly dominate a 43-18 game in Los Angeles. The 1972 Dolphins break out the bubbly. But Green Bay appears destined to win the NFC North, as no other team in the division is even at .500, while the 5-4 Chargers keep pace with the Chiefs and remain one game back in the AFC West.

Niners beat Cardinals, take two-game lead in NFC West: A 23-16 win over Arizona gives the 49ers a three-game winning streak and a 6-2 record, as Jimmy Garoppolo and Kyle Shanahan start to put together the kind of run that San Francisco brass imagined when they landed the former Patriot two years ago. With the Rams stumbling at 3-5, the 49ers are in prime position to take advantage.

Eagles go for two to ... tie: Ties are weird. But a late two-point conversion run by Jordan Howard secures one for the Eagles against the Bears, 29-29. Philly holds at 3-5-1, while Chicago's season remains bleak at 2-5-1.

The halfway point

Let's check in on every division at the halfway mark of the season:

• AFC East: Miami (6-2) has stunningly taken the lead in the AFC East by a half-game over the Patriots (6-3).

• AFC North: The Browns (5-3) hold a one-game edge over the Ravens (4-4) and Steelers (4-4).

• AFC South: The Titans have the edge (6-3), but the Colts (5-3) have made a recent surge as they find their offense without Andrew Luck. The Jags and Texans linger at 5-4 apiece.

• AFC West: Despite a couple of hiccups, the Chiefs (6-3) are doing what's expected: Holding first place. The Raiders are actually next on their tail at 5-3.

• NFC East: It isn't pretty. The Cowboys (4-4) lead by a slim margin, while the Redskins (4-5) -- with Haskins at QB now -- are a half-game back.

• NFC North: Green Bay (8-1) all the way. Oh, and the Lions are still winless (0-8).

• NFC South: The Falcons (5-3) hold a one-game lead over a team that many expected to be at the top (Saints, 4-4) and another that no one did (Bucs, 4-4).

• NFC West: The 49ers (6-2) have a strong two-game lead over Arizona and Seattle (both 4-5).

Week 10

Bills hand Browns their third straight loss: Josh Allen beats another 2018 first-round QB in Mayfield and helps move the Bills above .500 and to just one game back in the AFC East. And all of the fawning coverage the Browns received at the start of the season now feels like a decade ago. Can Freddie Kitchens keep the team together and right the ship and win the division? Cleveland is now tied at 5-4 with Baltimore, while the Steelers remain a half-game back.

Steelers' huge fourth quarter forces overtime at Heinz Field: For the second time this season, there is a tie. Ben Roethlisberger and JuJu Smith-Schuster go to work in the game's final quarter to complete a big comeback against the Rams and push the contest to extra time -- but neither team can score again. Pittsburgh goes to 4-4-1, while the Rams continue their struggles at 3-5-1.

Bucs shut out the Cards: Arizona's offensive line implodes and Murray can't get away from the Tampa Bay defense, which shuts down the Air Raid and then some. The Buccaneers move to 5-4.

Jets take the regular-season Snoopy Bowl: The once-every-four-years game between the two New York teams that actually counts comes down to the wire. While neither are really contenders -- the Giants are 3-7, while the Jets are 4-5 -- it's a battle for future dominance. Sam Darnold orchestrates a successful two-minute drill that results in a game-winning field goal.

Week 11

Lions fire Matt Patricia: Enough is enough for Martha Ford. Eager to avoid another winless season, she removes Patricia from his role as head coach after an 0-10 start and an overall 6-20 record for his tenure. Defensive coordinator Paul Pasqualoni takes over as the interim head coach.

Miami can't be stopped: Those Fitzpatrick interceptions? They haven't begun. And Miami, after beating the Bills, is now 7-3 and a full game up on the Patriots, who lost to the Eagles this week. Forget tanking. Miami is trying to win a division here! Could this really happen?

A four-way tie in AFC South: Yup, all four teams are 6-4. Plenty around the league are surprised with how the Colts have managed without Luck. Jacoby Brissett and T.Y. Hilton have built up a rapport. But Watson is also lighting it up, Mariota is having a career year and Foles is settling into Jacksonville very well. It should be an exciting stretch run for what has often been an anything-but-thrilling division.

Week 12

NFC East misery: All four teams in the NFC East sit at .500 or worse, with the Eagles -- fresh off of a 29-19 win over the Seahawks -- barely leading the pack at 5-5-1.

Packers become first team to 10 wins: With 35 points against the Niners, Rodgers has Green Bay at double-digit wins and in cruise control. It's the Packers' biggest NFC challenge yet -- the 49ers are the only other team in the conference with at least eight wins.

Week 13

Falcons beat the Saints, take lead in NFC South: The two teams entered this rivalry game tied in the standings, but Atlanta had no problem throwing on the Saints in this 37-21 win. For the first time in a while, New Orleans looks awfully mortal, and at 7-5, they are no sure thing for the postseason.

The Motor City Nightmare is over: The Lions win! This is not 2008 all over again. Detroit takes down the Bears, the latest indignity for a Chicago team that entered the year with Super Bowl aspirations and now wallows in third place in the division at 4-7-1.

Vikings win third straight: You like that?! A 24-10 win over the Seahawks puts Kirk Cousins and the Vikings at 7-5 and plants them firmly in the wild-card race.

Patriots regain control of AFC East: Miami loses at the wire in dramatic fashion to the Eagles 30-28, and it costs them first place thanks to another narrow result elsewhere: An 18-16 win for the Pats over the Texans. New England sits at 8-4.

Week 14

Here come the Rams: Aaron Donald has been angry. After reaching the bottom of the division a month earlier, he has become a nonstop force of destruction. And the Rams? They've quietly won six straight, just as the 8-5 Niners drop their third in a row. They're 7-5-1 and right back in this thing!

After a long wait, Chiefs avenge AFC title game loss: A 35-31 win over the Patriots won't mean as much to the Chiefs as a trip to the Super Bowl would have, but it's something. The victory keeps the Chiefs in first place in their division, and at 9-4, gives them the No. 1 seed for the moment in an AFC without a runaway team. The 8-5 Patriots keep a one-game lead in the AFC East after 7-6 Miami stumbles against the Jets.

PLAYOFF PICTURE: Cleveland (8-5) is a half-game up on the Steelers in the AFC North, as are the 49ers in the NFC West over the charging Rams. The AFC South is deadlocked yet again with the Colts, Texans and Titans all tied at 8-5. The Falcons and Saints are also tied atop the NFC North (8-5). And out in the NFC East, the Eagles own a 7-5-1 record and are 1½ games up.

Week 15

Monday Night Football drama in the AFC South: The 8-6 Colts' loss sets up a battle for first place in the division between the Titans and Texans. It came down to the end, but the Texans were able to stop Mariota's final drive and hold on for a 17-15 victory. The win kept 9-5 Houston in contention for a bye, too.

Three-way race for the No. 1 pick: Perhaps motivated by the coaching change, the Lions have suddenly won three games, tying them for the league's worst record with the Panthers and Bengals to set up a chase for next year's No. 1 pick. Tua Tagovailoa, Jerry Jeudy and the rest of the 2020 draft class offer the cluster of teams a lot of options come next April.

PLAYOFF PICTURE: The Patriots, Browns, Texans, Chiefs and Chargers all are tied with nine wins, and each either leads or is tied for the lead in the division. The Ravens, Colts, Titans and Raiders all are in realistic playoff contention, as well. In the NFC, the Packers hold a two-game lead for No. 1 seed. The 49ers and Eagles each have a half-game lead in their divisions, while the Saints are now up by a game on the Falcons. But Atlanta joins the Rams, Vikings and Redskins in a fight for the postseason.

Week 16

49ers clinch NFC West: It seemed preposterous, then likely, then tenuous -- but now certain. The 10-win 49ers are division champs, and they get it done by beating their division-rival Rams 26-24. For the first time, a pang of regret strikes Bill Belichick for dealing a quarterback.

Eagles clinch NFC East: It was far, far uglier than Philadelphia ever imagined it would be, but it still managed to grind out a division title at 8-6-1. A 27-20 win over the Cowboys (6-9) seals the deal.

Saints clinch NFC South: Atlanta gave them a run for their money, but ultimately Brees and Sean Payton were able to keep their foot on the gas down the stretch and build up a two-game advantage over Atlanta at 10-5. The Falcons remain alive for the postseason at 8-7.

Baltimore stacks 51 points on Browns: The 9-6 Ravens stay in the AFC North mix heading into the final week of the season, as Lamar Jackson runs all over Cleveland's defense. The Week 17 matchup with Pittsburgh (8-6-1) could hand John Harbaugh the division title for a second straight year.

PLAYOFF PICTURE: It's all up in the air in the AFC. The Patriots and Dolphins have a Week 17 showdown for the AFC East title (no, really). The Browns, Ravens and Steelers can all still win the AFC North. Either the Chargers or Chiefs can win the AFC West. And the Texans haven't wrapped up the AFC South just yet. Out in the NFC, it's the opposite. Every division is settled, and the Rams are locked into one wild-card spot. The only question now is whether the Falcons or Redskins take the last berth.

Week 17

Patriots hold off Dolphins for AFC East title: Xavien Howard and the Miami defense did everything they could to make Tom Brady's day tough, but it just wasn't enough. Stephon Gilmore and the rest of the Pats' top-five defense shut down Fitzpatrick's passing attack. The Patriots squeak by to win the division title again, and somehow manage to earn a bye, as well. And it truly is the worst of all worlds for Miami: It loses a heartbreaker, misses the playoffs, never gets to see Josh Rosen play a meaningful down and won't have an early draft pick.

Chiefs stumble at the last second to ... miss the playoffs: Rivers guts out an excellent Week 17 performance to topple Mahomes and the Chiefs 27-24. Andy Reid's team finishes 9-7 with a cluster of other teams and ends up on the wrong end of the tiebreaker. It never truly felt like the Chiefs were going to miss the postseason, but after three straight losses to close the year, here we are.

Steeling a playoff spot: Pittsburgh sat a half-game behind Baltimore heading into their Week 17 showdown. Jackson played good enough all year, coupled with a strong defense, but in this one, he couldn't quite hold his own against Roethlisberger, who showed he had just enough left in the tank for another playoff push. With the victory, Pittsburgh locks up a wild-card spot.

Browns clinch AFC North: A Ravens loss and a Browns win landed Cleveland the division crown. The Steelers took care of the first part, and Freddie Kitchens' team didn't bother to make it close. While Mayfield and Odell Beckham Jr. received most of the glory during the season, this performance was all about Myles Garrett, Denzel Ward, Joe Schobert, Sheldon Richardson and Olivier Vernon. The league's second-best defense showed up in a shutout of the Bengals.

Texans fall but win divisional title anyway, Titans snag playoff berth: This was a rarely seen win-win in the NFL, as Mariota continued his breakout season by knocking off the Texans in Week 17. Tennessee had been two games back of Houston going into the game, and because Indianapolis lost to Jacksonville, the Texans ended up taking the AFC South anyway. The Titans take home a wild card for their efforts.

Falcons secure final wild-card spot: Julio Jones and the rest of Atlanta's top-five offense outdo Jameis Winston and Mike Evans, as they pull away early in the second half to ice this one.

Cincinnati on the clock: After finishing with just three wins, the Bengals edge out the Panthers on tiebreakers for the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NFL draft.

NFC playoff seeds: 1. Green Bay Packers, 2. New Orleans Saints, 3. San Francisco 49ers, 4. Philadelphia Eagles, 5. Los Angeles Rams, 6. Atlanta Falcons

AFC playoff seeds: 1. Los Angeles Chargers, 2. New England Patriots, 3. Cleveland Browns, 4. Houston Texans, 5. Pittsburgh Steelers, 6. Tennessee Titans

Wild-card weekend

(3) 49ers 37 (6) Falcons 0: Holy Garoppolo. It's one thing to shock the world during the regular season. But to come out like this in the postseason and take down a talented and experienced team like the Falcons? The world better wake up: The 49ers are Super Bowl contenders.

(5) Rams 30, (4) Eagles 26: It's the old 2016 NFL draft postseason battle. And yes, Carson Wentz is healthy this January. But perhaps because the Eagles lacked the magic of Foles or perhaps because the Rams are just sizzling after their second-half run, Sean McVay gets the best of Doug Pederson in a closely contested matchup.

(6) Titans 10, (3) Browns 9: Oh, Browns. Even in the postseason, they find a way to torture their fan base. After a successful regular season, they get a winnable home game in the playoffs against a Titans team that is better than we all thought, but the offense sputters at the worst time. Three field goals is all they can muster in a loss to Tennessee's top-five defense.

(4) Texans 27, (5) Steelers 17: Watson earns his first playoff victory, as he and DeAndre Hopkins connect again and again in Houston's win. The Texans move on to face New England.

Divisional weekend

(5) Rams 30, (1) Packers 17: And just like that, it's over. The Packers' magical season, featuring the league's No. 1 defense and No. 4 scoring offense and Rodgers' resurgence -- it's all gone. The quarterback will still win the MVP, but the 13-win Packers pack their bags without a playoff win. Consider that, in Week 9, the Packers were 8-1, and Los Angeles was 3-5. Now, it's the latter that continues on.

(2) Saints 27, (3) 49ers 17: And here's where Jimmy G's road comes to an end. Brees' devastatingly accurate passing attack was too much for this defense. Still, it was a very successful season for San Francisco.

(1) Chargers 39, (6) Titans 30: Mariota puts on a show, but so does Rivers. And Joey Bosa has clearly become one of the game's elite defensive players.

(4) Texans 38, (2) Patriots 26: Houston finally got past New England in the playoffs. The Patriots stopped Houston in 2012 and 2016, but with Watson under center and Brady showing signs of age on the other sideline, Bill O'Brien is able to get one over on his former superior. But no, neither Brady nor Belichick retires.

Conference championships

Saints 17, Rams 10: Finally, justice. Sure, it was nice for the Saints to beat the Rams in the regular season, but they held the grudge from last year for 12 full months. And they got the opportunity to really pay back L.A. Defense stole the show, too, stifling McVay and Jared Goff.

Chargers 34, Texans 26: Rivers is just flying now. He and Keenan Allen are tearing up defenses. Hunter Henry has broken out to become one of the game's top receiving tight ends. And Bosa picks up a trifecta of sacks against Watson, who is prone to take them. In the end, Rivers is finally going to the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl LIV: Saints 40, Chargers 33

In a meeting of the No. 1 (Saints) and No. 2 (Chargers) offenses in the NFL, Brees is back on top. A decade after he and Payton beat Peyton Manning and the Colts in Super Bowl XLIV, the duo get it done again. It's heartbreak for Rivers, having come so close to finally winning that elusive championship, but he comes up a touchdown short. He says you'll have to simulate the offseason to find out whether he's coming back for a 17th season at 38 years old, but FPI leaves us at the Saints' victory parade down Bourbon Street.

Big questions. Bold predictions. Breakout fantasy football candidates. Over/under picks. Record and playoff projections. In-depth schedule analysis for all 32 teams. This is what you need to know for the 2019 NFL season.

The ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) ranked every team from 1-32 based on how it projects the season to play out. Click the links below to read about each team.

Jump directly to a team preview:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE
NO | NYG | NYJ | OAK | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH

1. Kansas City Chiefs

Has the defense improved?

Adam Teicher: The Chiefs did as close to a complete overhaul of their defense as is possible in one year, but nobody is quite sure how it will go. They saw some encouraging signs in training camp, most notably the play of end Frank Clark, who was acquired in a trade with the Seahawks, and safety Juan Thornhill, a second-round draft pick. But the Chiefs still need to prove they've improved on defense. Read the full Chiefs preview.

2. New Orleans Saints

Can the defensive line stay dominant?

Mike Triplett: One of last year's hidden strengths, the Saints ranked second in the NFL in run defense and fifth in sacks. But standout DT Sheldon Rankins is still recovering from a torn Achilles, and starting DE Alex Okafor left in free agency. The Saints still have one of the league's best ends in Cameron Jordan. But they'll need big contributions from young DEs Marcus Davenport and Trey Hendrickson and new veteran DT Malcom Brown among others. Read the full Saints preview.

3. New England Patriots

How much will Rob Gronkowski's retirement hurt?

Mike Reiss: The Patriots have looked impressive at times in the preseason, but tight end is one notable question mark. It wouldn't be a surprise if the Patriots keep just two tight ends on the initial roster. Under coordinator Josh McDaniels, the Patriots have traditionally been an offense that reshapes itself annually based on the strength of its personnel. After nearly a decade of at-times dominant play at tight end, the position could be deemphasized without Gronk. Read the full Patriots preview.

4. Los Angeles Rams

Can Todd Gurley perform at high level and make it through the season?

Lindsey Thiry: Gurley rushed for more than 1,200 yards in back-to-back seasons, and last season scored a league-high 21 touchdowns -- even as he nursed a sore knee that sidelined him in Weeks 16 and 17. The Rams took a conservative approach with Gurley throughout training camp, limiting him to an every-other-day practice schedule. It remains to be seen if the star back can return to form, or if he could be forever slowed because of his knee. Read the full Rams preview.

5. Philadelphia Eagles

Can Carson Wentz stay healthy?

Tim McManus: After suffering significant injuries in back-to-back seasons, Wentz overhauled his diet and workout regimen this offseason and plans to be smarter about the number of hits he takes. He hasn't felt or looked this good since making an MVP charge in 2017, but needs to prove he can make it through a full 16-plus games. Read the full Eagles preview.

6. Los Angeles Chargers

How can the defense replace Derwin James?

Eric D. Williams: With the All-Pro safety out until at least November after having surgery to repair a stress fracture in his right foot, the Chargers are tasked with replacing one of the best defensive players in the game. Veteran defensive back Adrian Phillips will try to fill the void, but it likely will be a team effort to make up for the versatility and playmaking ability that James brings to the defense. The Chargers believe they have one of the best defenses in the league, so players such as Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram, Thomas Davis and Casey Hayward have to show leadership and make plays for the Bolts to live up to that billing. Read the full Chargers preview.

7. Minnesota Vikings

Can the defense return to its vaunted form?

Courtney Cronin: The Vikings' once-loaded cornerback group has been depleted by injury (Mike Hughes) and suspension (Holton Hill), and it remains to be seen whether Xavier Rhodes will be able to play like he did in 2017. Coach Mike Zimmer will have to get creative in the way he schemes to overcome the Vikings' weaknesses, relying heavily on Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander to hold this group together. At safety, All-Pro Harrison Smith will lead the way opposite Anthony Harris, while Jayron Kearse provides the Vikings with a different look when they utilize their nickel packages (they were in their nickel defense 77% last season). Read the full Vikings preview.

8. Chicago Bears

Can Mitchell Trubisky take his game to the next level?

Jeff Dickerson: Trubisky is the key to everything. The Bears have arguably the best defense in the league, but the offense struggled at times last year with Trubisky under center. Without any legitimate preseason action, it has been difficult to measure Trubisky's progress over the course of training camp. Is he elite? Is he just average? Will he be any better than last season? Everyone is anxious to find out. Read the full Bears preview.

9. Atlanta Falcons

Is this the Falcons team Matt Ryan finally leads to a Super Bowl title?

Vaughn McClure: The 2016 MVP, entering his 12th season, sounded pretty optimistic this summer, telling ESPN the Falcons have the right people in the building that give them a "great chance'' to get back and, hopefully, win the Lombardi Trophy. The skeptics believe the Falcons might never overcome the Super Bowl hangover from 2016 after their 28-3 implosion and eventual 34-28 overtime loss to the Patriots. Ryan has to prove otherwise and keep his teammates focused on that mission, with the window of opportunity closing. Read the full Falcons preview.

10. Green Bay Packers

Will Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur click?

Rob Demovsky: It has been the question since Jan. 8, the day LaFleur was hired as the Packers' coach. And we don't seem much closer to knowing the answer. It's a new offense for Rodgers, whose entire career as a starter had been under Mike McCarthy's tutelage. Training camp saw days good and bad for the offense. It could take a while before anyone knows whether this system will work for Rodgers & Co. "You're probably not going to know something until the middle of the season," GM Brian Gutekunst said. "These things take time." Read the full Packers preview.

11. Houston Texans

Will Deshaun Watson get hit less in 2019?

Sarah Barshop: The Texans were worst in the NFL with 62 sacks allowed last season. They addressed a hole at left tackle in a trade with the Dolphins for Laremy Tunsil on Saturday. Watson started all 16 games last season but played through several injuries. O'Brien said he believes Watson has improved at getting the ball out quicker, but "the proof will be in the pudding when the real games start." Read the full Texans preview.

12. Seattle Seahawks

Can the rebuilt defense hold up?

Brady Henderson: That seems a lot more likely than it did even a week ago, when Ezekiel Ansah wasn't even practicing and Jadeveon Clowney was still in Houston. Clowney's addition changes the outlook in a big way as does Ansah being on track to play in Week 1. Seattle has a pair of premier edge rushers as part of what now might be the NFL's best front seven -- at least once Jarran Reed returns from his suspension in Week 7. Read the full Seahawks preview.

13. Dallas Cowboys

Can the Cowboys get past the divisional round?

Todd Archer: If Jason Garrett wants to be the coach in 2020, that seems to be the minimum the team will have to accomplish since they have made it to the second round of the playoffs three times in his tenure. The roster is as talented as it has been since 2007 and they have a defense that could be dominant. If the Ezekiel Elliott saga doesn't drag into the season, then the offense can be more than sufficient. Read the full Cowboys preview.

14. Pittsburgh Steelers

Does the Steelers' offense have enough firepower to win big without Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown?

Jeremy Fowler: This question lingered throughout the offseason, and it's one Pittsburgh is eager to answer. The Steelers believe they have a chance in every game with Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback. The next step is discovering whether JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Conner can turn Pro Bowl seasons into Year 3 greatness. The Steelers are confident the production will be there. Outside of that, expect the Steelers to spread the ball with several different receivers posting respectable numbers -- maybe 500 here, 700 there -- with the hope a no-huddle attack remains one of the league's best. Read the full Steelers preview.

15. Carolina Panthers

Can QB Cam Newton stay healthy?

David Newton: Now the 2015 NFL MVP has a midfoot sprain that has his status for the opener somewhat in question. For the entire offseason it was his right shoulder that underwent surgery for the second time in three offseasons that was in question. While the team remains cautiously optimistic that Newton will be ready for Week 1, with no proven backup, having their star player healthy will be crucial to success. Read the full Panthers preview.

16. San Francisco 49ers

Can Jimmy Garoppolo stay healthy for a full season?

Nick Wagoner: For now and the future, the Niners need Garoppolo, who has 10 career starts, to play all 16 games so they can truly know what they have in him. To contend for the playoffs in 2019, the Niners need him at full strength after a torn left ACL last season. If he can't stay on the field or struggles to move the offense consistently, San Francisco could have a tough decision to make and, potentially, find itself searching for answers again at the game's most important position. Read the full 49ers preview.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars

Has the offense improved enough to complement what should be one of the league's best defenses?

Michael DiRocco: That mainly depends on what the Jaguars get out of QB Nick Foles and RB Leonard Fournette. Foles led the Eagles to a Super Bowl victory, but he ranks 23rd in Total QBR among all QBs who have thrown at least 1,500 passes since 2012 (Foles' rookie year), which means he has pretty much been an average QB. That's still an upgrade over Blake Bortles, though. There are questions about Fournette's work ethic, maturity and ability to stay healthy, but he has had a great training camp and those inside the franchise are optimistic this could be a huge bounce-back season. If those two come through with good seasons, the Jaguars will contend for the AFC South title. Read the full Jaguars preview.

18. Cleveland Browns

How will Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham Jr. gel together?

Jake Trotter: In Mayfield and OBJ, the Browns boast potentially one of the best QB-WR combos in the NFL. Collectively, they have that level of talent. The question is whether their chemistry actually will translate into an elite pass-catching duo. All preseason signs have pointed in that direction. But the pressure of actual games will present the real challenge. Read the full Browns preview.

19. Baltimore Ravens

Can Lamar Jackson keep defenses honest with his arm?

Jamison Hensley: Teams are going to stack the box and force Jackson to beat them by throwing the ball. One of the most dramatic developments in training camp was Jackson showing significant improvement in his mechanics and his accuracy downfield. This is an area where he struggled last season. In the last seven weeks of the regular season (when Jackson made all of his starts), he connected on 37.5 percent of his throws (9-of-24) that traveled at least 15 yards. That ranked 24th in the NFL. If Jackson can be more efficient on those passes, the Ravens offense will be dangerous this season. Read the full Ravens preview.

20. Tennessee Titans

Can the Titans' offense do enough to make the playoffs?

Turron Davenport: New offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has to figure out a way to make the Titans a balanced attack that can win shootouts or grind it out, depending on the opponent. The Titans invested heavily to set up the offense for a productive season. Their success comes down to three things: the offensive line keeping Mariota upright, Mariota's ability to distribute the ball to the weapons in place and Derrick Henry's effectiveness in the running game. Read the full Titans preview.

21. Indianapolis Colts

Can Jacoby Brissett lead the Colts back to the playoffs?

Mike Wells: Andrew Luck is retired and Brissett -- like many of his teammates -- is in his second season in coach Frank Reich's offense. The easy way to look at Brissett is by his 4-11 record as a starter in 2017 season. Circumstances are completely different from two years ago when he was acquired two weeks before the regular season. Brissett, who struggled at times in training camp, is set up to have an effective season because the Colts have a better overall roster. Read the full Colts preview.

22. Denver Broncos

Is the offense going to score some points, or what?

Jeff Legwold: Though the starters had limited work in the preseason and quarterback Joe Flacco did, indeed, flash some skills in the offense, the regulars still did not construct a touchdown drive in August, and that is always a concern. That's especially true for a team that has been as balky on offense as the Broncos have been for much of the past three seasons. Denver will run the ball better when the games count. But in the passing game, a player or two beyond Emmanuel Sanders and DaeSean Hamilton will have to pick up the pace. Read the full Broncos preview.

23. Detroit Lions

Will Darrell Bevell's new offense produce enough for the Lions to be successful?

Michael Rothstein: The Lions have kept Bevell's plan mostly hidden during preseason games and during practices with the Patriots and Texans. The franchise made the switch from Jim Bob Cooter to Bevell, in part, to find an offense that fits Matt Patricia's overall philosophy. So it should mean more running, play-action and vertical passing. If it works, the Lions have a chance to contend for the NFC North. If it doesn't, it could be another long season in Detroit. Read the full Lions preview.

24. New York Jets

Can Le'Veon Bell still perform at a Pro Bowl level?

Rich Cimini: Bell will be productive, and his presence will help quarterback Sam Darnold, but don't expect a vintage Bell year with 1,900 yards from scrimmage. The concerns: His new surrounding cast isn't nearly as good as what he enjoyed in Pittsburgh, which will mean more attention from defenses. There will be early timing issues with the offensive line. After all, the man hasn't played a game in 20 months. The good news: He's still only 27, and the year away from football undoubtedly preserved some tread on his thinning tires. Read the full Jets preview.

25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Can the offensive line protect Jameis Winston?

Jenna Laine: Winston enters Year 5 -- the most pivotal season of his career -- with a well-assembled cast of receiving targets: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate. But he won't be able to do much if an offensive line that surrendered a league-high 15 sacks through three preseason games doesn't protect him. Read the full Buccaneers preview.

26. Buffalo Bills

Can Josh Allen put his 'hero ball' days behind him?

Marcel Louis-Jacques: The Bills want Allen to opt for his checkdowns and intermediate options over pushing the ball downfield this season. His ability to do so and take care of the ball is paramount to the team's offensive success in 2019. Read the full Bills preview.

27. Oakland Raiders

Antonio Brown is all-in ... but for how long?

Paul Gutierrez: It's a fair question, since he left camp for two weeks and sought treatment for his frostbitten feet and then took off again for a day after his grievance to wear his old helmet was denied, setting up GM Mike Mayock's ultimatum. Brown's agent, Drew Rosenhaus, swears Brown will play regardless of helmet type, and Brown has reconnected with Derek Carr in pregame warm-ups -- even if he has had to slow up on a couple of deep balls. Brown has averaged more than 11 targets per game since 2013. What happens if Carr cannot get him the ball and the Raiders get off to a slow start? Read the full Raiders preview.

28. Cincinnati Bengals

How soon will the Bengals contend for a playoff spot?

Ben Baby: After five consecutive playoff appearances at the beginning of the decade, the Bengals have failed to finish .500 or better the past three seasons. This year will show if the franchise has the necessary pieces to be competitive in the immediate future or look for new players to build around. Wide receiver A.J. Green is on the final year of his contract and Andy Dalton is approaching the final two seasons of his deal. Read the full Bengals preview.

29. Washington Redskins

Can the offense provide any help?

John Keim: Washington lacks a proven playmaker on the outside. Their top-receiving target (tight end Jordan Reed) is already in the concussion protocol. Their quarterback of the future (Dwayne Haskins) isn't ready, so the job, for now, falls to journeyman Case Keenum. There without perennial Pro Bowl tackle Trent Williams. But they should have a good running game, especially if Derrius Guice stays healthy. Still, a lot of questions need to be answered on offense. Read the full Redskins preview.

30. Arizona Cardinals

Can Kliff Kingsbury's offense work?

Josh Weinfuss: It's an impossible question to answer, because nobody has seen what Kingsbury's version of his Air Raid scheme will look like. And nobody will until Week 1. But how well it works will dictate how well the Cardinals do in 2019. And if it doesn't work, the biggest question becomes how bad will 2019 go for Arizona? Read the full Cardinals preview.

31. New York Giants

How are the Giants going to handle their quarterback situation?

Jordan Raanan: Eli Manning is the unequivocal starter. There is no internal debate about that at this point. But rookie Daniel Jones' strong spring and summer has the clock ticking quickly on Manning's tenure. The second the Giants stumble or Manning has a poor performance, the calls for Jones will begin to ring louder. Does coach Pat Shurmur pull the trigger at the first sign of distress or, more likely, wait until the Giants' playoff dreams disappear before making the highly anticipated move? Likely the latter. And how much will owner John Mara and even GM Dave Gettleman be involved in the sensitive situation to bench the most accomplished quarterback in franchise history? Likely plenty. Read the full Giants preview.

32. Miami Dolphins

Will Josh Rosen show enough to become the Dolphins' starting QB?

Cameron Wolfe: The Dolphins don't want to rush Rosen on the field, and the fact that he won't start Week 1 isn't as important to them. Rosen has shown considerable improvement in recent weeks but simply being better than Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't enough to be the Dolphins' QB of the future. Rosen has a certain standard of consistent performance he must reach. Read the full Dolphins preview.