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NBA predictions: MVP, Finals matchups and future stars

Published in Basketball
Wednesday, 18 December 2019 05:03

Who is the favorite for MVP -- LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo, James Harden, Luka Doncic or another contender?

Who is winning the Finals: One of the Los Angeles teams or the field?

We polled the ESPN Forecast panel of experts for their votes about a third of the way through the 2019-20 NBA season. The results include the most likely conference finals and NBA Finals matchups, the young players with the most superstar potential, the best franchises for the next three seasons and more.


Who is most likely to win MVP?

Note: Voters ranked their top three picks.

Last season, this two-player race came down to Antetokounmpo and Harden. Though there is a deep pool of contenders in 2019-20, Giannis and LeBron -- the leaders of the top two teams in the league -- are emerging as the front-runners, with Giannis in the lead at the moment.

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo | MIL (56.5% first-place votes): 178 points

  • LeBron James | LAL (28.3%): 128 points

  • James Harden | HOU (8.7%): 59 points

  • Luka Doncic | DAL (4.3%): 34 points

  • Anthony Davis | LAL (2.2%): 13 points

Others receiving votes: Kawhi Leonard

MORE: MVP straw poll -- is a Giannis repeat in the works?

Who is the NBA rookie or sophomore with the most long-term potential?

Note: Voters ranked their top three picks.

Last year's Rookie of the Year runs away with this one. In his second season, Doncic has already emerged as an MVP candidate for the surprising Mavericks (though he's currently recovering from an ankle injury that could have him out for a couple of weeks).

Others receiving votes: Deandre Ayton, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kendrick Nunn, Jaren Jackson Jr., Tyler Herro, Coby White, Jaxson Hayes, Cam Reddish, Mo Bamba

MORE: How Luka Doncic is making his NBA MVP leap so quickly

What is the most likely Eastern Conference finals matchup?

Coming into the season, the Bucks and Sixers looked like the clear favorites in the East. Despite impressive starts by the Celtics and Heat, that hasn't changed.

  • Bucks vs. 76ers: 76.1%

  • Bucks vs. Celtics: 10.9%

  • Bucks vs. Heat: 6.5%

  • Bucks vs. Raptors: 4.3%

  • Celtics vs. Raptors: 2.2%

MORE: The evolution of 76ers rookie Matisse Thybulle has begun

What is the most likely Western Conference finals matchup?

The top of the West is still strong, but our panel doesn't see anyone touching the two Los Angeles teams at full strength. There were zero other selections for a WCF matchup besides Lakers-Clippers. ESPN's Basketball Power Index gives these teams a 42% chance of meeting at some point in the postseason.

  • Lakers vs. Clippers: 100%

MORE: NBA trade deadline -- what we're hearing about all 30 teams

What is the most likely NBA Finals result?

Our panel sees a top tier of NBA title contention class that goes three deep -- Lakers and Clippers, followed by the Bucks. But it's worth noting that FiveThirtyEight's projection system is also high on the Rockets and 76ers as potential title teams who could end up breaking through.

Winner

  • Lakers: 37%

  • Clippers: 37%

  • Bucks: 26%

Loser

  • Bucks: 47.8%

  • 76ers: 19.6%

  • Clippers: 15.2%

  • Lakers: 10.9%

  • Celtics: 6.5%

MORE: Latest ESPN NBA Power Rankings

NBA champs: Los Angeles or the field?

FiveThirtyEight gives the Clippers (24%) and Lakers (13%) a less than 50% collective chance to win the title. BPI is even lower on the Los Angeles powerhouses as truly overwhelming favorites, with a collective 17.8% chance at a championship between the two teams.

Of course, one reason for that is the Lakers and Clippers probably have to go through each other in the West. Still, our panel is high on one of them getting it done.

  • Los Angeles: 69.6%

  • The field: 30.4%

MORE: How real plus-minus can reveal hidden NBA stars

Which West team will be the best over the next three seasons?

Note: This vote includes this season.

The Clippers enjoy the benefit of having most of their core (outside of Montrezl Harrell) under contract for this season and next season. It's assumed that upcoming free agent Anthony Davis will re-sign with the Lakers in the summer of 2020 barring some kind of disaster, but LeBron James turns 35 in December. Our panel is putting more faith in the Clippers long term.

  • Clippers: 65.2%

  • Lakers: 30.4%

  • Nuggets: 2.2%

  • Mavericks: 2.2%

MORE: How deep, audacious 3-pointers are taking over the NBA

Which East team will be the best over the next three seasons?

Note: This vote includes this season.

No team has more at stake this season with a superstar player than the Bucks. Antetokounmpo will be eligible to sign a supermax contract in Milwaukee as soon as free agency begins next summer. That decision will swing the future of the Eastern Conference. If Giannis agrees to the deal, he'll be with the Bucks through most of prime, potentially competing for titles with regularity -- as our panel predicts here.

  • Bucks: 52.2%

  • 76ers: 32.6%

  • Celtics: 10.9%

  • Nets: 4.3%

MORE: 2020 NBA trade deadline -- latest news, grades and intel

Image credits: Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images, Scott Cunningham/NBAE via Getty Images, Mitchell Leff/Getty Images, Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire, Jeff Hanisch/USA TODAY, Kirby Lee/USA TODAY, Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire, AP Photo/Aaron Gash

Kluber glad to join Texas, put 'trying' '19 in past

Published in Baseball
Tuesday, 17 December 2019 15:26

DALLAS -- Corey Kluber is returning to Texas to pitch for the Rangers.

The two-time Cy Young Award winner will leave it to others to say whether his hometown team has its next ace.

"I think having a starting pitcher you can rely on every fifth day to give your team a chance to win, keep you in the ballgame, I think that stuff carries just as much weight," Kluber said Tuesday, two days after the Rangers acquired him in a trade with Cleveland that sent outfielder Delino DeShields and reliever Emmanuel Clase to the Indians.

"As far as expecting myself to be a No. 1 starter, I feel like if you do that stuff in between starts and you prepare yourself and you do the things I talked about, I think that stuff just kind of falls in line. But that's not what I set out to do."

Kluber missed most of last season after breaking his right forearm when he was struck by a line drive during a start at Miami. The 33-year-old came close to returning to the Indians' rotation but injured an oblique during a minor league rehab appearance that ended his comeback.

Rangers general manager Jon Daniels characterized it as a blessing in disguise after Kluber pitched at least 200 innings in five straight seasons, capped by three consecutive trips to the playoffs from 2016 to '18 for the right-hander.

"It was a very trying season for me," Kluber said. "Looking back on it now, the way I feel now, I guess I kind of buy into that, that it was probably not the worst thing in the world for me as far as the future goes."

Kluber blossomed into one of baseball's best pitchers, beginning with his first Cy Young season in 2014, when he went 18-9. The second came three years later, with an 18-4 record and AL-leading 2.25 ERA. Kluber was a 20-game winner the year before his injury-shortened season.

"We fully believe that he can get back to somewhat what he used to be," manager Chris Woodward said. "And if he's anywhere near what he used to be, he's absolutely an ace."

Kluber joins a rotation with two solid options in All-Star left-hander Mike Minor and hard-throwing righty Lance Lynn. The Rangers signed two free-agent right-handers in Jordan Lyles and Kyle Gibson before adding Kluber.

Although Kluber is joining the team he grew up watching, it won't be in the same ballpark.

The Rangers are moving into Globe Life Field, a $1.2 billion retractable-roof stadium across the street from Globe Life Park. Texas' home for 26 seasons was where Kluber watched the Rangers when he was a high schooler in the Dallas suburb of Coppell and where he pitched three times for the Indians.

"I think it's excitement in the sense that it's new," said Kluber, whose career record is 98-58 with a 3.16 ERA. "It's a place you've never been before, things like that. Once it gets down to it and you're pitching, you're in the games, I don't take that into account much."

Texas moves into the new ballpark coming off three straight losing seasons, the club's longest sub-.500 stretch in 16 years. But expectations are climbing with a rotation led by Kluber, Minor and Lynn and an offense hoping for a full season from slugger Joey Gallo.

The Indians picked up Kluber's $17.5 million contract option for 2020 immediately after last season. Because Kluber was dealt, his $18 million club option for 2021 will become guaranteed if he pitches 160 innings this season.

Kluber said he's ahead of schedule with his throwing program because he missed so much of last season and wanted to start his regular throwing earlier. He has been on that plan for about a month and a half.

"I feel really good," Kluber said. "I'm excited about where I am physically right now."

Caught stealing: Francona's swiped rings found

Published in Baseball
Wednesday, 18 December 2019 04:41

Two World Series rings belonging to Terry Francona have been recovered after they were stolen from the former Boston Red Sox manager last month, according to the Pima County (Arizona) Sheriff's Department.

The sheriff's department said in a release Tuesday that the rings -- for the Red Sox's 2004 and 2007 World Series titles -- had been purchased by a Phoenix sports memorabilia store. They were initially reported as stolen on Nov. 7.

Jamey Estep, 33, has been arrested and charged with second-degree burglary, theft and trafficking in stolen property, which are felonies, according to the department.

Francona, now the manager of the Cleveland Indians, managed the Red Sox from 2004 to 2011, winning those two Series titles.

A $245,830 check of Francona's was also found to have been fraudulently deposited earlier in the year, according to the sheriff's department.

The starting pitching market in free agency has moved very quickly this offseason. The frenetic pace has likely been too fast for some teams.

And it isn't just Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg and Madison Bumgarner coming off the board. Teams that may have been hoping to wait out the market have seen Jake Odorizzi take the Twins' qualifying offer and middle- and lower-tier options like Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda, Tanner Roark, Cole Hamels, Rick Porcello and Jordan Lyles get snapped up. Even Michael Wacha, Josh Lindblom and Kevin Gausman are gone. Teams willing to spend can still shoot for Hyun-Jin Ryu and Dallas Keuchel, but after that, the pickings are pretty slim.

So teams looking through the remaining players for anything in the way of solid production shouldn't get their hopes up. However, for those seeking upside in a starting pitcher who should come at a discounted rate, here are the best options.

So here we are. Gerrit Cole is in pinstripes. Madison Bumgarner will be in ... hey, what will the Diamondbacks be wearing in 2020? Anthony Rendon is in Los Angeles, but not with the Dodgers. Stephen Strasburg remained with the Nationals. How will these deals work out? Check back in many years.

What we can do is check back on the 2010s on how free agency worked -- or didn't work -- for all 30 franchises.

For each team we'll list the total dollars committed in free agency (starting with new contracts for the 2010 season, not including money carried over from previous deals), where they ranked in the decade in wins, the biggest contract and the best and worst contracts. The year listed for contracts is the first season of the deal. It's easy to view the bad contracts as criticism for the players involved. That's not necessarily fair. They earned their money: Some team agreed to pay them. That's the nature of free agency, of course, since you're projecting future performance for players often in their 30s. And remember, while many free agents end up being overpaid, they were all underpaid earlier in their careers.

Division-by-division bests and worsts: AL East | AL Central | AL West | NL East | NL Central | NL West

AL East

New York Yankees

Total dollars committed: $1.055 billion (2nd)
Decade wins: 921 (1st)
Playoff games: 51

Biggest contract: Masahiro Tanaka, 2014 (7 years, $155 million)

No, the Yankees didn't spend the most in free agency in the decade -- that would be their rivals to the north. Nearly half of the team's $1 billion in spending came in the same offseason, when they dished out $471 million to sign Tanaka, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran and others -- and promptly won 84 games. That led to a period of relative austerity and the Yankees didn't spend $100 million on a free agent again until they signed Cole to his record-breaking deal.

Good: Tanaka

There have been some bumps along the way and while he hasn't been an annual Cy Young contender, Tanaka has been effective, averaging 2.9 WAR per season. Since signing, he ranks 14th in the majors with 75 wins and 21st in ERA (minimum 900 innings). He also owns a 1.76 ERA in eight postseason starts, so don't blame him for the Yankees' failure to reach a World Series in the decade.

Bad: Ellsbury, 2014 (7 years, $153 million)

The Ellsbury deal looked risky from the beginning, a player who had a monster 2011 season when he finished second in the MVP vote, but had also battled injuries, playing 18 games in 2010 and 74 in 2012. He had a 3.6 WAR debut season with the Yankees, but it went downhill from there and the seven-year contract will yield just 39 home runs and an average of just 74 games per season.


Tampa Bay Rays

Total dollars committed: $163.22 million (29th)
Decade wins: 860 (6th)
Playoff games: 20

Biggest contract: Charlie Morton, 2019 (2 years, $30 million)

The Rays must wonder what life would be like in another division. They finished the decade with the sixth-most wins in the majors, but play in a division with the team with the most wins (the Yankees) and fifth most (the Red Sox). Those two teams committed over $1 billion each in free agency while the Rays spent about as much for the entire decade as the Yankees did on Ellsbury.

Good: Morton

Their biggest contract paid dividends as Morton finished third in the Cy Young voting in 2019 as the Rays returned to the playoffs after a five-year absence. There is also a 2021 vesting option that could extend this to a three-year deal.

Bad: Johnny Damon ($5.25 million) and Manny Ramirez ($2 million), 2011

The money wasn't big, but coming off a 96-win season and division title in 2010, the Rays gambled on the two veterans. Damon was OK with a 109 OPS+ over 150 games, but Ramirez played just five games, then retired after testing positive for a banned substance (and though he tried to come back, he never played in the majors again). The Rays did make the playoffs with 91 wins -- thanks to Evan Longoria 's dramatic walk-off home run on the final day of the season -- but maybe they would have gone deeper in the playoffs if they had spent this money differently.


Boston Red Sox

Total dollars committed: $1.075 billion (1st)
Decade wins: 872 (5th)
Playoff games: 37

Biggest contract: David Price, 2016 (7 years, $217 million)

It was an uneven decade for the Red Sox, with two World Series titles, but also three losing seasons and just four playoff appearances. Perhaps no team used free agency to win a title -- or titles -- better than the Red Sox. The 2013 champs included $100 million spent that winter on Shane Victorino, Ryan Dempster, Jonny Gomes, Stephen Drew, Koji Uehara and David Ross. John Lackey had been signed in 2010. The 2018 champs featured nine-figure free agents Price and J.D. Martinez. As we'll see below, they also had three of the decade's biggest misfires in free agency.

Good: Martinez, 2018 (5 years, $110 million)

Martinez has hit .317 with 79 home runs and 235 RBIs in his first two seasons, accounting already for 9.7 WAR and a ring. There were reports the Red Sox were hoping Martinez would opt out of the final three seasons, but he elected to stay, which isn't the worst thing if he keeps mashing.

Bad: Pablo Sandoval, 2015 (5 years, $95 million)

The $142 million contract for Carl Crawford in 2011 was one of the worst in history (Crawford was worth just 3.7 WAR over the life of the deal), but at least the Red Sox were able to dump Crawford on the Dodgers two years later. So the worst deal goes to Sandoval, who for $95 million produced negative WAR with the Red Sox before he was released after two-plus seasons. (Hanley Ramirez takes third-place honors.)


Toronto Blue Jays

Total dollars committed: $315.95 million (24th)
Decade wins: 794 (15th)
Playoff games: 20

Biggest contract: Russell Martin, 2015 (5 years, $82 million)

The Blue Jays have spent the better of two-plus decades wandering in mediocrity, excepting the 2015-16 seasons when an old lineup carried them to two playoff trips -- after which they immediately collapsed. Other than bringing Martin back to his native Canada, the Blue Jays have refused to play the free-agent game going back to the early 2000s, as J.A. Happ's $39 million deal was their second largest of the decade.

Good: Edwin Encarnacion, 2011 (2 years, $6 million)

This was a weird one. Encarnacion was with the Blue Jays in 2009 and 2010. They put him on waivers and the A's claimed him, but then didn't offer him a contract, making him a free agent. The Blue Jays re-signed him and Encarnacion broke out with 42 home runs in 2012, beginning a still-active streak of eight straight 30-homer seasons.

Bad: Jose Bautista, 2017 (1 year, $18 million)

After turning down a big offer in the spring of 2016 after hitting 40 home runs in 2015, Bautista had a mediocre 2016 and came crawling back to the Blue Jays on a one-year offer. He hit .203/.308/.366 in 157 games and the Blue Jays fell from 89 wins to 76.


Baltimore Orioles

Total dollars committed: $503.52 million (15th)
Decade wins: 755 (26th)
Playoff games: 14

Biggest contract: Chris Davis, 2016 (7 years, $161 million)

The Orioles had a nice run from 2012 to 2016, with one AL East title and three playoff appearances. They made some solid if unspectacular investments in that period -- mostly filling out a roster built around Manny Machado, Adam Jones and a strong bullpen. Now in the early stages of a deep rebuilding, they're not going to spend much on the big league roster for at least a couple more years.

Good: Wei-Yin Chen, 2012 (4 years, $15.05 million)

The Taiwanese lefty by way of the Chunichi Dragons proved to be an astute purchase by Dan Duquette, going 46-32 with a 3.72 ERA in his four seasons in Baltimore.

Bad: Davis

Davis hit 53 home runs in 2013, then got his big deal after hitting 47 in 2015. In between, however, was a .196 season, and that turned out to be the prophecy of what was to come. He has hit .198 through the first four years of the contract and has been worth minus-0.4 WAR.

AL Central

Minnesota Twins

Total dollars committed: $393.8 million (21st)
Decade wins: 765 (23rd)
Playoff games: 7

Biggest contract: Ervin Santana, 2015 (4 years, $55 million)

The Twins' guiding principle in free agency seems to be to seek out all the No. 3 starters they can find. That has worked out about as well as you'd expect: Sometimes they get a solid No. 3 and sometimes they get something worse. Coming off a big 101-win season and with payroll flexibility due to the youth on the roster, have the Twins aimed higher this offseason? Nope. They re-signed Michael Pineda.

Good: Nelson Cruz, 2019 (2 years, $26 million)

Cruz was 29 when the decade began, but led the decade with 346 home runs -- and in the process was responsible for three of the best contracts of the decade. The Orioles signed Cruz to a one-year, $8 million deal in 2014 and he led the AL with 40 home runs. He signed a four-year, $57 million deal with Seattle that was widely panned, but he averaged 41 home runs and 104 RBIs. At age 38, he got a one-year deal with a team option from the Twins and produced 41 home runs and 108 RBIs in just 120 games.

Bad: Ricky Nolasco, 2014 (4 years, $49 million)

He went 15-22 with a 5.44 ERA in two-plus seasons with the Twins.


Cleveland Indians

Total dollars committed: $251.9 million (26th)
Decade wins: 855 (7th)
Playoff games: 24

Biggest contract: Edwin Encarnacion, 2017 (3 years, $60 million)

As you can guess, the Indians don't play with the big boys in free agency, especially after a disastrous turn in 2013 for a pair of outfielders -- two players responsible for 42% of their total commitment for the decade. The Encarnacion contract was a rare high average annual value on the heels of reaching the World Series in 2016.

Good: Mike Napoli, 2016 (1 year, $7 million)

I tried to stay away from one-year deals in this category, but since the Indians rarely give out long-term deals in free agency, let's give them props for Napoli. He bounced back from a poor 2015 to hit 34 home runs, drive in 101 runs and serve as the spiritual leader of a team that made it to Game 7 of the World Series.

Bad: Nick Swisher (4 years, $56 million) and Michael Bourn (4 years $48 million), 2013

After finishing 68-84 in 2012, the Indians oddly dipped into free agency with the fifth- and seventh-largest contracts given out that offseason. They actually won a wild card in 2013 and Swisher (3.6 WAR) and Bourn (2.2 WAR) were OK. But they were worth a combined minus-0.5 WAR in 2014 and traded to Atlanta in 2015.


Chicago White Sox

Total dollars committed: $415.42 million (19th)
Decade wins: 743 (28th)
Playoff games: 0

Biggest contract: Jose Abreu, 2014 (6 years, $68 million)

It was a terrible decade for the White Sox. They never made the postseason. Only two teams won fewer games. They haven't finished above .500 since 2012. The front office spent some money in free agency, but showed no creativity compared to the likes of small-market franchises like the Rays or A's. They haven't drafted well for two decades -- their only first-round picks in the past 20 years to earn 10 WAR in the majors have been Chris Sale, Gio Gonzalez (who was traded as a minor leaguer) and Tim Anderson.

Good: Abreu

The White Sox guessed right on the big slugger out of Cuba. His first season, when he produced a league-leading 173 OPS+, has by far been his best, but with 21.2 WAR over the six-year deal, he has been a solid contributor and worth the $68 million investment. The White Sox recently re-signed him as a free agent.

Bad: Adam Dunn, 2011 (4 years, $56 million)

Dunn had averaged 40 home runs over the previous seven seasons, with excellent on-base skills as well, so he seemed like a safe signing, even as a DH-only player. His first season was one of the worst of all time as he hit .159/.292/.277. He rebounded to hit 41 home runs the next year and then 34, but his batting average and OBP were still poor, so his overall WAR over the four seasons was minus-0.9.


Kansas City Royals

Total dollars committed: $452.77 million (17th)
Decade wins: 758 (25th)
Playoff games: 31

Biggest contract: Alex Gordon, 2016 (4 years, $72 million)

Give the Royals some credit: When they reached their window to win in 2014 and 2015, ownership spent some money to help put them over the top, including eight free agents in the 2014-15 offseason (all one-year or two-year deals) for a total of $68.9 million. After winning the World Series, they committed another $178.5 million -- they didn't spend it wisely (Gordon and Ian Kennedy), but it wasn't for lack of trying that the Royals weren't able to sustain their success.

Good: Edinson Volquez, 2015 (2 years, $20 million)

Volquez was the final piece of the puzzle for the 2015 World Series champs, signed to replace James Shields in the rotation. He went 13-9 with a 3.55 ERA in the regular season and had a solid 3.77 ERA in the postseason over five starts. Not an ace, but he was good enough and with that great bullpen it was all the Royals needed.

Bad: Gordon, 2016 and Kennedy, 2016 (5 years, $70 million)

The Royals re-signed Gordon after the World Series title and spent a lot on Kennedy as well. Gordon produced just 4.8 WAR in his four years -- with all his value on the defensive side -- while Kennedy had a good first season in 2016 and then two bad ones, which relegated him to the bullpen in 2019 (where at least he was very good).


Detroit Tigers

Total dollars committed: $844.5 million (5th)
Decade wins: 782 (21st)
Playoff games: 38

Biggest contract: Prince Fielder, 2012 (9 years, $214 million)

It was a good first half of the decade as the Tigers made the playoffs four straight years from 2011 to 2014, taking advantage of the weak AL Central and spending a lot of money in free agency -- not to mention handing out mega-extensions to keep Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander in Detroit. But the decline has been painful as the team got old and the bad money in veterans piled up, ultimately resulting in the trades of Verlander and J.D. Martinez, which appear to have brought little in return.

Good: Victor Martinez, 2011 (4 years, $50 million)

This was the first Martinez contract and it was a good one even though he missed all of the 2012 season. In the other three seasons he hit .321/.381/.487 with 289 RBIs and even finished second in the 2014 AL MVP vote when he led the league in OBP and OPS. The second Martinez contract -- four years, $68 million -- was a huge mistake as he produced negative WAR.

Bad: Fielder

The Tigers did reach the World Series in Fielder's first season as he hit .313 with 30 home runs, but his offense fell way off in 2013 and after just two seasons the Tigers shipped him off to Texas, eating much of his salary in the process. A neck injury unfortunately led to an early end to his career, but even then the contract was going to be a bad one as Fielder had never recovered the home run stroke he had in Milwaukee.

AL West

Houston Astros

Total dollars committed: $329.27 million (22nd)
Decade wins: 789 (19th)
Playoff games: 50

Biggest contract: Josh Reddick, 2017 (4 years, $52 million)

As they've built their powerhouse, the Astros have avoided the garbage contracts many teams bang out in free agency. Instead, they've preferred to trade for their high-paid additions, like Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke. They did sign Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman to extensions, but they've been quiet so far this offseason as they watched Gerrit Cole head to the Bronx.

Good: Charlie Morton, 2017 (2 years, $14 million)

Morton went 29-10 with a 3.36 ERA in his two years and was the Game 7 World Series hero in 2017, tossing the final four innings to get the win.

Bad: Tony Sipp, 2016 (3 years, $18 million)

Not spending big in free agency also means the Astros haven't made any mistakes. Sipp had a 1.99 ERA in 2015, but after re-signing he had a 4.21 ERA over three seasons, pitching mostly in low-leverage relief.


Oakland Athletics

Total dollars committed: $258.75 million (25th)
Decade wins: 839 (10th)
Playoff games: 13

Biggest contract: Billy Butler, 2015 (3 years, $30 million)

As you would expect, the A's were near the bottom in free-agent spending and their biggest contract is tied with the Rays for the smallest biggest deal of any team. Billy Beane has usually used his limited funds to fortify his bullpen or fill the back of the rotation. He hasn't always hit home runs, but the A's made five playoff appearances in the decade even though the farm system produced little homegrown pitching of note along the way.

Good: Scott Kazmir, 2014 (2 years, $22 million)

Beane has made many astute low-budget signings through the years, but Kazmir proved to be especially beneficial. He went 15-9 with a 3.55 ERA and made the All-Star team in 2014, then after a good first half the following season (2.38 ERA), the A's flipped him to the Astros for Daniel Mengden and Jacob Nottingham -- and Nottingham was later sent to the Brewers for Khris Davis.

Bad: Butler

Definitely not a Moneyball moment. Butler's deal was much maligned at the time as he was coming off a bad season with the Royals with a below-average OPS and he was limited to DH. Butler hit just 19 home runs in his year-plus in Oakland and after making the playoffs three straight years from 2012 to 2014, the A's collapsed to 94 losses in 2015.


Texas Rangers

Total dollars committed: $518.95 million (12th)
Decade wins: 843 (9th)
Playoff games: 42

Biggest contract: Shin-Soo Choo, 2014 (7 years, $130 million)

The Rangers started the decade with back-to-back World Series trips and three consecutive playoff appearances (and then a loss in a tiebreaker game in 2013). After a down year in 2014, they bounced back with two more division titles in 2015 and 2016, although they barely outscored their opponents over those two seasons. Overall, the Rangers have cooled off their spending in recent seasons and haven't spent more than $30 million on one player since 2014. There were expectations that might change as they move into their new stadium for 2020, but they lost out on Anthony Rendon.

Good: Adrian Beltre, 2011 (6 years, $96 million)

One of the best signings of the decade, as Beltre ranked third in the majors in WAR behind Mike Trout and Robinson Cano over those six seasons, transforming from a very good player to a future Hall of Famer.

Bad: Choo

The Rangers hoped to match their Beltre good fortune with another 30-something player, but Choo has been worth just 8.9 WAR through six years -- far below what you desire from a $130 million contract. He has produced a fine .365 OBP, but his park-adjusted OPS+ is just 109, not good enough for a bat-only player who has spent a lot of time at DH in recent seasons.


Los Angeles Angels

Total dollars committed: $667.45 million (8th)
Decade wins: 822 (12th)
Playoff games: 3

Biggest contract: Albert Pujols, 2012 (10 years, $250 million)

One reason Mike Trout has never won a playoff game: The Angels have been absolutely inept in free agency. Maybe Anthony Rendon will finally change that. They've tried big-ticket items such as Pujols, C.J. Wilson and Josh Hamilton. They've tried the discount route, like last year's dice rolls on Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill. Nothing has worked.

Good: Joe Smith, 2014 (3 years, $15.75 million)

Smith was a solid workhorse reliever in his two-plus seasons with the Angels, going 13-11 with 26 saves and a 2.89 ERA.

Bad: Pujols

Hard to believe that Pujols has now played eight seasons with the Angels. He has basically been a replacement-level player for four seasons now and has totaled 13.7 WAR in his Angels career -- 4.8 of that coming in his first season -- the only season he has topped an .800 OPS in an Angels uniform. Put it this way: Since 2013, there have been 110 qualified first base/DH seasons of an .800 OPS or higher, an average of 15.7 per season. None of them have come from Pujols.


Seattle Mariners

Total dollars committed: $506.78 million (14th)
Decade wins: 758 (24th)
Playoff games: 0

Biggest contract: Robinson Cano, 2014 (10 years, $240 million)

A complete doughnut of a decade, with no playoff appearances -- they have the longest drought of any team. And just three winning seasons, even though they've been in the top half of the majors in both free-agent dollars and overall payroll. And, no, the Cano contract doesn't qualify as a bad deal. He earned 23.8 WAR in five seasons with Seattle, including two top-10 MVP finishes, and the Mariners traded him just in time.

Good: Nelson Cruz, 2015 (4 years, $57 million)

The contract was widely criticized at the time due to Cruz's age, but he was a beast in his four seasons in Seattle, leading the majors with 163 home runs despite playing in a tough home run park, and ranking fourth in RBIs despite having little offensive support around him.

Bad: Chone Figgins, 2010 (4 years, $36 million)

Remember when the Mariners tried the whole pitching-and-defense thing and graced the cover of ESPN The Magazine's baseball preview issue in 2010? Yeah, they lost 101 games that year.

NL East

Atlanta Braves

Total dollars committed: $232.95 million (27th)
Decade wins: 843 (9th)
Playoff games: 18

Biggest contract: B.J. Upton, 2013 (5 years, $75.25 million)

Under Liberty Media, the Braves are tighter with their cash than Ebenezer Scrooge. They went big just once in free agency the entire decade and committed more than $12.5 million just three times -- with Upton, Nick Markakis and last year's one-year deal with Josh Donaldson. Thanks to two different runs of a productive farm system, however, they made five postseason trips (three times from 2010 to 2013 and the current two-year run).

Good: Josh Donaldson, 2019 (1 year, $23 million)

The perfect example of a win-win one-year deal. Coming of an injury-plagued 2018, Donaldson bet on himself and he had a 6.1-WAR season -- higher than Ronald Acuna Jr. or Freddie Freeman. He'll strike it rich this offseason.

Bad: Upton

Upton was a strange gamble for a franchise that doesn't like to dip into free agency. He had been excellent in his age-22 and 23 seasons, but had averaged just 2.1 WAR over the next four seasons, hitting under .250 with a ton of strikeouts each year. In his walk year he posted a .298 OBP. The Braves paid for the tools more than the on-field results. He fell apart in Atlanta, hitting .198 in his two seasons there before the Braves traded him to San Diego.


Washington Nationals

Total dollars committed: $783.25 million (7th)
Decade wins: 879 (4th)
Playoff games: 36

Biggest contract: Max Scherzer, 2015 (7 years, $210 million)

It was a successful yet frustrating decade for the Nationals -- until October 2019, when they rallied late against the Brewers in the wild-card game, rallied late in Game 5 of the NLDS against the Dodgers and rallied late in Game 7 of the World Series to beat the Astros. Their payrolls have increased from 24th-highest at the start of the decade to top five the past three years, and they signed three mega free-agent contracts (Jayson Werth, Scherzer, Patrick Corbin) on top of now twice re-signing Stephen Strasburg. Spend and you might win.

Good: Scherzer

This what the Yankees are hoping for with Gerrit Cole. Well, except they hope it doesn't take five years before they win a World Series title.

Bad: Nate McLouth, 2014 (2 years, $10.75 million)

Give Mike Rizzo credit: He has had very few misses in free agency, even on his one- and two-year deals. McLouth lasted just one year in D.C., hitting .173 with one home run in 73 games.


New York Mets

Total dollars committed: $632.42 million (9th)
Decade wins: 793 (16th)
Playoff games: 15

Biggest contract: Yoenis Cespedes, 2017 (4 years, $110 million)

The Mets sneaked in a trip to the World Series in 2015 and a wild card in 2016, but the decade has mostly been one LOL after another, with seven losing seasons and a long list of head-scratching decisions. They've had one of the worst approaches in free agency of any team: Don't sign the meal-ticket superstars and ignore potential bargains, but instead overpay for mediocre vets. You don't even want to see the list of relievers they've signed.

Good: Bartolo Colon, 2014 (2 years, $20 million)

Colon went 29-26 with a 4.13 ERA while throwing 397 innings. Nothing special, but he chewed up innings. They re-signed him for 2016 and he had an even better season, going 15-8 with a 3.43 ERA.

Bad: Cespedes

We have a couple of choices here. The Jason Bay contract in 2010 was a disaster -- four years, $66 million, 1.8 WAR -- but the second Cespedes deal (after he opted out of a three-year, $75 million contract after one year) has been a more expensive calamity. Cespedes has been unable to stay healthy, playing just 119 games so far in three seasons, leading to a grievance resolved by hashing out a pay cut for 2019 and 2020.


Philadelphia Phillies

Total dollars committed: $945.03 million (3rd)
Decade wins: 787 (20th)
Playoff games: 14

Biggest contract: Bryce Harper, 2019 (13 years, $330 million)

The decade began with two bitter playoff defeats, a six-game loss to the Giants in the 2010 NLCS as the Philly bats went cold, hitting .216 with three home runs, and then the Game 5 loss to the Cardinals in the NLDS in 2011 as Chris Carpenter outdueled Roy Halladay in a 1-0 game. And just like that, it was the end of an era. The lineup got old overnight, Halladay got hurt and they haven't been over .500 since. Thanks to Harper's deal, the Phillies committed the third-most money in the decade. We'll see if it pays off with better results in the 2020s.

Good: Cliff Lee, 2011 (5 years, $120 million)

Call this a lukewarm "good." Lee returned to the Phillies as a free agent and had three excellent seasons (2.80) before injuring his elbow after 13 starts in 2014 and not pitching at all in 2015.

Bad: Carlos Santana, 2018 (3 years, $60 million)

The Phillies tried to fit a square peg into a round hole with this signing, as it required moving Rhys Hoskins to left field so that they could play Santana at first. Hoskins was a big liability on defense and Santana had his worst season. He was traded after the season for Jean Segura, who promptly fell from 4.3 WAR with the Mariners to 1.3 with the Phillies.


Miami Marlins

Total dollars committed: $415.72 million (18th)
Decade wins: 707 (30th)
Playoff games: 0

Biggest contract: Jose Reyes, 2012 (6 years, $106 million)

That's right, the Marlins spent more money in free agency -- well, committed to spending --- than 12 teams. Much of that $415 million came in the 2011-12 offseason, when they signed Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell as they moved into Marlins Park. They promptly lost more games than the year before and traded all three players. Yay, Marlins.

Good: Javier Vazquez, 2011 (1 year, $7 million)

Vazquez went 13-11 with a 3.69 ERA in his one season in Miami and was so thrilled with his experience there he decided to retire.

Bad: Wei-Yin Chen, 2016 (5 years, $80 million)

The Reyes contract certainly didn't pan out -- he produced just 9.1 WAR over the life of the deal -- but the Marlins did trade him away. More inexplicable was giving Chen, a nice mid-rotation starter with the Orioles, an $80 million contract. The Marlins non-tendered him this offseason after 13 wins and a 5.10 ERA over three seasons.

NL Central

St. Louis Cardinals

Total dollars committed: $517.2 million (13th)
Decade wins: 899 (3rd)
Playoff games: 70

Biggest contract: Matt Holliday, 2010 (7 years, $120 million)

The Cardinals returned to the postseason in 2019 after a three-year hiatus, but they still had a successful decade: third in wins, first in playoff games, one World Series title, five trips to the NLCS, no losing seasons. The Cardinals notoriously play it safe in free agency and their biggest contract came 10 years ago (although they did trade for Paul Goldschmidt and sign him to a five-year, $130 million extension that kicks in starting in 2020).

Good: Holliday

The Cardinals had acquired Holliday at the trade deadline in 2009, then re-signed him as a free agent. He hit .288/.377/.486 in his seven years in St. Louis and while he tailed off with injuries during the final two seasons, he made four All-Star teams and compiled 23.2 WAR.

Bad: Dexter Fowler, 2017 (5 years, $82.5 million)

Fowler had a solid first season in St. Louis, although injuries limited him to 118 games, and then a disastrous 2018 when he hit .180. He bounced back in 2019 with a 1.7 WAR season, but he's now primarily a corner outfielder, which hurts his value. He has been worth just 1.9 WAR over three seasons and he's now entering his age-34 season.


Milwaukee Brewers

Total dollars committed: $328.77 million (23rd)
Decade wins: 824 (11th)
Playoff games: 22

Biggest contract: Lorenzo Cain, 2018 (5 years, $80 million)

The Brewers had the best decade in franchise history with six winning seasons -- more than the 1990s and 2000s combined -- including trips to the NLCS in 2011 and 2018. They made the playoffs again in 2019, but after losing Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas in free agency, we'll see if they can post a fourth straight winning season.

Good: Cain

The Brewers rarely dig into the upper levels of free agency, which is why the Cain signing two years ago was a big surprise. He had a huge 2018, finishing seventh in the MVP voting, and while the bat tailed off as he battled some injuries in 2019, he still played great defense and posted 2.8 WAR. He'll be 34, but he has the chops to be the rare player who can remain in center field into his mid-30s.

Bad: Matt Garza, 2014 (4 years, $50 million)

The Brewers spent the final three years of this contract trying to trade Garza -- and finding no takers. He went 26-39 with a 4.65 ERA, with a season high of 163⅓ innings as he had trouble staying healthy.


Chicago Cubs

Total dollars committed: $867.72 million (4th)
Decade wins: 817 (14th)
Playoff games: 37

Biggest contract: Jason Heyward, 2016 (8 years, $184 million)

The Cubs spent the first half of the decade rebuilding and the second half winning. They also spent a lot of money in free agency, with decidedly mixed results. Heyward was on the 2016 World Series champs, so it's difficult to completely rip the deal, but suffice to say Heyward hasn't been the two-way impact player the Cubs envisioned (86 OPS+ over four seasons so far). Yu Darvish has seven wins in two seasons of his megadeal and the first half-season of Craig Kimbrel's three-year deal was a mess.

Good: Jon Lester, 2015 (6 years, $155 million)

No complaints about this one, however. Lester is 74-41 with a 3.54 ERA in five seasons, making 31 or 32 starts all five years and posting a 1.93 ERA over 56 postseason innings.

Bad: Edwin Jackson, 2013 (4 years, $52 million)

Let's give Darvish and Kimbrel more time. For now, Jackson's deal still takes the prize as he went 16-34 with a 5.37 ERA in two-plus seasons, drawing his release midway through the third year of the deal.


Cincinnati Reds

Total dollars committed: $121.14 million (30th)
Decade wins: 775 (22nd)
Playoff games: 9

Biggest contract: Aroldis Chapman, 2010 (6 years, $30.25 million)

No team spent less in free agency in the decade than the Reds, a decade that began with playoff appearances in 2010, 2012 and 2013, but concluded with six straight losing seasons. The Reds are ramping up for 2020 and the $64 million deal with Mike Moustakas already tops anything they gave out in the 2010s.

Good: Chapman

In retrospect, it's surprising a bigger-market team didn't step up with more money -- indeed, the three finalists for Chapman were the Reds, A's and an unnamed third team. The Reds quickly converted Chapman from starter to reliever and he immediately became the greatest strikeout reliever in the game's history.

Bad: Ryan Ludwick, 2013 (2 years, $15 million)

Hey, if you don't sign free agents, it's hard to have a bad deal. Ludwick had a big year for the Reds in 2012 with 26 home runs and an .877 OPS, but they re-signed him as a free agent and he hit 11 home runs with a .666 OPS over two seasons.


Pittsburgh Pirates

Total dollars committed: $188.82 million (28th)
Decade wins: 792 (18th)
Playoff games: 8

Biggest contract: Francisco Liriano, 2015 (3 years, $39 million)

Remember when the Pirates were viewed as a sabermetric pioneer, averaging 93 wins from 2013 to 2015 as they made three straight playoff trips? That already feels like a generation ago. Annual attendance has fallen by a million since then, they made two bad trades involving Gerrit Cole and Chris Archer and now they're starting over again. One thing probably won't change, however: spending money in free agency.

Good: Russell Martin, 2013 (2 years, $17 million)

Martin was a big contributor on two playoff teams, with his defense, leadership and .362 OBP.

Bad: Clint Barmes, 2012 (2 years, $10.5 million)

Barmes was an excellent defender at shortstop so this wasn't a total negative, but he produced a 62 OPS+ in 2012-13.

NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers

Total dollars committed: $843.82 million (6th)
Decade wins: 919 (2nd)
Playoff games: 66

Biggest contract: Zack Greinke, 2013 (6 years, $147 million)

Seven straight division titles. Two 100-win seasons. The second-most wins in the decade. Ten years of the great Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers emerged from the Frank McCourt fiasco in the early years of the decade to embark on a run of dominance -- but the empty feeling of no World Series titles gnaws at the franchise. Interestingly, Greinke, signed in the first year of chairman Mark Walter's ownership, remains the team's only $100 million free agent of the decade (and he opted out after three seasons). Other than re-signing Kenley Jansen and Justin Turner, the second-biggest deal is the $60 million they gave to A.J. Pollock last year.

Good: Justin Turner, 2017 (4 years, $64 million)

Hyun-Jin Ryu 's six-year, $36 million contract proved to be a bargain, but re-signing Turner gave the Dodgers their best position player during their World Series trips in 2017 and 2018. He has been worth 14.0 WAR in three seasons as he heads into the final year of the contract.

Bad: Scott Kazmir, 2016 (3 years, $48 million) and Brandon McCarthy, 2015 (4 years, $48 million)

With apologies to the $30 million gifted to Cuban right-hander Yaisel Sierra, let's go with these twin $48 million contracts given to two injury-prone starters. Kazmir lasted just one season before breaking down (0.5 WAR), while McCarthy would make just 29 starts over three seasons (0.3 WAR). Dodgers fans can only wonder about what might have happened if that $96 million had been spent more wisely.


Arizona Diamondbacks

Total dollars committed: $492.25 million (16th)
Decade wins: 793 (16th)
Playoff games: 9

Biggest contract: Zack Greinke, 2016 (6 years, $206.5 million)

The D-backs made playoff appearances in 2011 and 2017, but have been stuck in neutral for the most part, averaging 79 wins per season. They're also middle of the pack in free-agent money, although Greinke's deal -- the highest average annual value in history at the time -- accounts for 42% of dollars committed. In fact, the Diamondbacks made just one other signing in the decade for more than $26 million. That makes the recent Madison Bumgarner deal even more surprising, as it is territory Arizona has stayed away from.

Good: Eduardo Escobar, 2019 (3 years, $21 million)

The Diamondbacks acquired Escobar in 2018 and then re-signed him and he had a big first season with 35 home runs, 118 RBIs and 4.2 WAR.

Bad: Yasmany Tomas, 2015 (6 years, $68.5 million)

Both the Greinke deal and this one came under the stewardship of the ill-fated Tony La Russa/Dave Stewart regime. At least Greinke was very good. The Tomas signing came during the height of the Cuban mania, which led to some bad signings (see Rusney Castillo), and was met with immediate skepticism as Tomas had no clear position. He hit 31 home runs in 2016, but he was still below replacement level due to poor defense and a subpar OBP. He has just 186 big league plate appearances over the past three seasons.


San Francisco Giants

Total dollars committed: $572.13 million (11th)
Decade wins: 821 (13th)
Playoff games: 53

Biggest contract: Johnny Cueto, 2016 (6 years, $130 million)

The Giants are just middle of the pack in the decade for overall wins and won 90 games just twice, but they hit the lottery in the postseason, winning three World Series during their four postseason appearances. Much of the big money has come after the World Series titles, but with little payoff -- Jeff Samardzija, Cueto, Mark Melancon -- and they haven't spent more than $9 million on a free agent since the Melancon contract in 2016 as they try to rebuild.

Good: Aubrey Huff, 2010 (1 year, $3 million)

Huff hit .290/.385/.506 with 100 runs and 86 RBIs as the team's best hitter, wore his red rally thong and finished seventh in the MVP voting as the Giants won their first title since moving to San Francisco. They re-signed him for two years, which didn't work out.

Bad: Mark Melancon, 2017 (4 years, $62 million)

You can argue for the Cueto contract, especially given concern about his health even at the time it was signed. He had one big year with 5.5 WAR before the injuries came. Melancon, on the other hand, was worth just 0.8 WAR in a Giants uniform before they finally traded him to Atlanta.


Colorado Rockies

Total dollars committed: $412.45 million (20th)
Decade wins: 752 (27th)
Playoff games: 5

Biggest contract: Ian Desmond, 2017 (5 years, $70 million)

You can argue that no team has done a worse job in free agency than the Rockies -- one reason they had just three winning seasons in the decade (although they did win wild cards in 2017 and 2018) and four 90-loss seasons. The Desmond contract, all the bad reliever contracts, the lack of desire to bring in a big hitter who could put up huge numbers at Coors Field, Ty Wigginton and so on. They don't spend big and they haven't spent smart.

Good: Rafael Betancourt, 2010 (2 years, $7.55 million)

You have to dig hard to find a big Rockies win in free agency -- OK, Michael Cuddyer and Justin Morneau won batting titles, but that tells you how easy it is to win a batting title playing for the Rockies. Betancourt had a lot of good seasons in Colorado as an underrated reliever.

Bad: Desmond

Few deals in recent years raised as many eyebrows at the time as this one -- $70 million for a player who had already moved off shortstop, had a .313 OBP over the prior two seasons, struck out too much and whom the Rockies signed to be some sort of super-utility player. He has ended up spending most of his time in center field, hasn't hit enough and has been below replacement level all three seasons.


San Diego Padres

Total dollars committed: $631.82 million (10th)
Decade wins: 739 (29th)
Playoff games: 0

Biggest contract: Manny Machado, 2019 (10 years, $300 million)

Machado's megadeal pushed the Padres into the top 10 in free-agent commitments for the decade -- a decade in which the Padres had the second-fewest wins and joined the Marlins, Mariners and White Sox with no playoff appearances. After committing to $444 million on Machado and Eric Hosmer the past two offseasons, it probably isn't realistic to expect the Padres to keep pouring money into free agency, which means it's time for the young players to step up.

Good: James Shields, 2015 (4 years, $75 million)

Oh, don't get me wrong, Shields didn't help the Padres much with a 4.00 ERA over 44 starts, but A.J. Preller pulled off one of the great heists of the decade when he traded Shields in the second year of his deal to the White Sox for a rookie league shortstop named Fernando Tatis Jr.

Bad: Hosmer, 2018 (8 years, $144 million)

When they signed Hosmer, the Padres were banking that his career-best 2017 season was a breakout. Look, players don't usually break out in their seventh year in the majors. Hosmer has hit .259/.316/.412 in two seasons. The average major league hitter has hit .250/.320/.422. As a small-market franchise, you can't make mistakes like this.

Recently crowned US Open champion Bianca Andreescu speaks of "feeling worthless" as she struggled to cope with the attention of being a rising teenage star.

Former Grand Slam finalist Madison Keys reveals an eating disorder left her living off three low-calorie bars a day.

British player Katie Swan talks about the impact of her coach's son falling through a glass window and needing life-saving surgery.

Mental health issues. Sexuality. Financial worries. Leaving home for the first time. Death.

American player Noah Rubin, the 2014 Wimbledon junior champion seeking to fulfil his promise on the ATP Tour, is giving his fellow professionals a platform to open up - whatever the subject.

His Behind The Racquet project, inspired by Humans of New York - a revealing photoblog of the city's residents now tracked by millions of social media users worldwide, sees current players, former players and celebrity fans including British comedian Miranda Hart pose behind the strings of a racquet.

Accompanying the striking image is an emotive personal story.

"This has never really been done before, something that shows what these people, who are thought of as having perfect lives or doing really well because they are professional players, are really going through," Rubin tells BBC Sport.

"You really get an understanding of what they're going through on a day-to-day basis, what their thought process is, what their mentality is, how they are feeling, how their family is, just how difficult tennis is."

Rubin, 23, is determined to influence change in a sport which he says is "very tough on the body and the mind".

Belgian player Alison van Uytvanck, in a post published earlier this month, gives a candid insight into the low self-esteem she felt as a youngster when she was bullied at training camps because of her ginger hair.

"I never felt so alone, having no friends and unable to really talk to parents," she says. "I had no-one to lean on for help and found myself crying in my room day after day."

Rubin believes a fundamental overhaul of the game is needed to help improve the mental wellbeing of the players, while he also says more support pathways need to be opened up.

Improved access to psychologists and the creation of outreach programmes for youngsters, where a former professional is easily contactable to offer advice, is a key strategy outlined by Rubin.

"The seasons are way too long, the matches are too long, it is not fan-friendly, it is not promotable, it is not TV-friendly. There are so many issues," Rubin says.

"I think we are a little scared of making true fundamental changes - but we have to."

The ATP Tour's 2020 season begins on 2 January with the newly launched ATP Cup, starting just six weeks after some of the world's leading male players took part in the inaugural Davis Cup finals.

Top female players have a slightly longer break - the season-opening Brisbane International on 6 January comes two months after the WTA Finals finished.

While men's five-set matches are now reserved for Grand Slams and the Olympic final, the length of matches has still prompted plenty of debate.

Tentative attempts to introduce shorter formats of the game have been made - notably with first-to-four-games sets at the ATP NextGen finals and the creation of the Tie Break Tens events, but are yet to break through on the main ATP and WTA Tours.

Uniform change is difficult, however, with seven governing bodies - the ITF, ATP, WTA and four Grand Slams - rarely pulling in the same direction.

"We're at a time where we have to break down the sport of tennis, invest, take a hit for a year or two and bring the sport to a place to where it has never been before," Rubin says.

The WTA says the health and safety of its players - physical and mental - are its "number one priority".

"The WTA has a comprehensive sports science and medicine and athlete assistance support system in place, which is staffed by experienced and expert therapists within the WTA," it said in a statement.

"The WTA provides extensive resources and education to [help] players manage the challenges professional athletes may face, such as performing under pressure, international travel, managing health, public scrutiny, public commentary and 'growing up' in the public eye."

The WTA added that players can receive individual counselling and support if needed from qualified mental health care providers, both at WTA tournaments and remotely.

The ATP said it was "continually looking to build on its duty of care towards its players" and had recently carried out a review of this area with players, team members and industry experts.

In a statement, the ATP said: "Tournament physicians and physiotherapists on the ATP Tour are in continual contact with players and their support teams throughout the year. In cases where a player were to express psychological concerns, we have an infrastructure that would refer them to the appropriate consultant.

"In situations where ATP physios and tournament physicians are concerned about a player's mental, emotional and psychological health, we would recommend that the player seek treatment and assist in the initiation of the appropriate care."

'I had dark times. This sport isn't conducive to happiness'

Passionate, articulate and determined to influence change, Rubin speaks from the heart.

Around the time of this year's French Open, he almost stopped playing a sport to which he has dedicated most of his life. As an 11-year-old, he was said to have been described as "one of the most talented players" fellow New Yorker John McEnroe had come across.

"I didn't know whether I was going to stop for good or just some real time off. I was telling my family and friends that I just don't want to play the sport any more," Rubin remembers.

"I wasn't happy - the sport isn't conducive to happiness. I don't know if I want to throw the word depressed around, but at moments I felt like that.

"I was really thinking this was the end and the last time I was going to hit a tennis ball competitively."

What changed for the world number 212 was spending less time on court, addressing his work-life balance and rediscovering the fun which made him enjoy tennis in the first place.

Rubin moved back to New York from Florida, practised about an hour a day, and then qualified for Wimbledon where he missed out on a third-round meeting with Roger Federer by losing to British youngster Jay Clarke.

Rubin repeatedly makes it clear he still loves the sport, and believes a change of focus - he talks of his love for fashion and photography, as well as still having time for Netflix and HBO - can enable him to crack the world's top 50 next year.

"I started to figure out that it is far more important to put happiness on a pedestal rather than spend eight hours on a court," he concludes.

"I had dark times where I didn't know if I was going to make it out as a tennis player.

"This world of Behind The Racquet has opened up my eyes, it has given me another passion and helped take some pressure of the world of tennis.

"Now I understand it is far more important to be happy."

Rubin pauses as he recalls one story, which he says still gives him "chills".

"It was Jolene Watanabe, who was a top-100 player and played in the Grand Slams in the 1990s. She had cancer, was in remission, and I thought she was going to make it.

"Then I got a message from her husband on Instagram saying 'I just want you to know she is saying her final goodbyes right now and it would be very much appreciated if you could post her story'.

"To hear that they're going through something where she's not going to make it and he was thinking he wanted me to post her story on Behind The Racquet so people could know about it, be a part of it and inspire them... it leaves me speechless.

"To have that kind of impact was something I could not have fathomed, especially this early on, and that's why I keep pushing on."

How it began... and what next?

It was during a sleepless night after arriving home from Australia that Rubin formulated the concept of Behind The Racquet.

After inspiration struck at 3am, he acquired the name of his new project on Instagram, Twitter and Facebook. Within three days he had posted for the first time.

Ten months later, Behind The Racquet has about 35,000 followers across the three platforms, along with a podcast and clothing range as Rubin aims to build the brand.

The next phase is already being worked on, with Rubin aiming to link-up with Talkspace, an online therapy platform which boasts legendary American swimmer Michael Phelps as an ambassador, and the National Association of Mental Illness, as he looks to set up mental health camps for players and perhaps film a docu-series.

Sharing the stories of the sport's biggest names - Rubin hopes seven-time Grand Slam singles champion Venus Williams and US Open runner-up Daniil Medvedev will feature before the end of the year - is another target.

"Not only are many in a sport where they can't make money, they're in a sport where you don't win very often, so they're combining failure on the court with failure financially," Rubin says.

"What I'm really trying to do is pave a way for people that, in five or 10 years from now, are saying 'this is better because of Behind The Racquet'."

RPM Act Goes To The U.S. House

Published in Racing
Wednesday, 18 December 2019 03:29

WASHINGTON, D.C. — SEMA President and CEO Chris Kersting commended U.S. Representatives Patrick McHenry (R-NC) and Raul Ruiz (D-CA) for introducing H.R. 5434, the Recognizing the Protection of Motorsports Act of 2019 (RPM Act).

The RPM Act of 2019 includes five other original sponsors: Reps. Richard Hudson (R-NC), Kurt Schrader (D-OR), Bill Posey (R-FL), Gil Cisneros (D-CA), and Michael Burgess (R-TX).

This bipartisan bill protects Americans’ right to convert street vehicles into dedicated race cars and the motorsports-parts industry’s ability to sell products that enable racers to compete.

The RPM Act reverses the EPA’s interpretation that the Clean Air Act does not allow a motor vehicle designed for street use — including a car, truck, or motorcycle — to be converted into a dedicated racecar. This American tradition was unquestioned for nearly 50 years until 2015 when the EPA took the position that converted vehicles must remain emissions-compliant, even though they are no longer driven on public streets or highways.

“SEMA looks forward to working with Congress to enact the RPM Act and make permanent the Clean Air Act’s original intention that race vehicle conversions are legal,” said Kersting. “We thank Representatives McHenry and Ruiz for introducing a bipartisan bill that will protect racing and the businesses that produce, install, and sell the parts that enable racers to compete.”

The RPM Act is well positioned to become law in 2020. The bill cleared several major legislative hurdles in the previous Congress, including passage by the U.S. House Energy and Commerce Committee and hearings in the House and Senate.

“I am proud to help protect our nation’s automotive heritage and ensure motorsports enthusiasts across the country can continue the time-honored tradition of modifying stock vehicles for competitive racing,” said Rep. Patrick McHenry.

H.R. 5434 is the House counterpart to the Senate’s version of the bill, S. 2602, which was introduced by Senators Richard Burr (R-NC) and Joe Manchin (D-WV) and currently has 28 bipartisan cosponsors.

“Racing has always been close to my heart from the countless hours I spent with my father at the track,” said Rep. Raul Ruiz. “I am glad to support car owners and race enthusiasts around the country in their passion for racing, working on cars, and sharing moments with their sons and daughters under the hood.”

Most of the vehicles raced on the estimated 1,300 race tracks operating across the U.S. are converted vehicles that the EPA considers to be illegal.

The NHL's Great Pretenders: Teams that are not what they seem

Published in Hockey
Tuesday, 17 December 2019 16:58

Last week we looked at some players who were prime regression candidates, for both good and bad reasons.

It's an especially useful mental exercise to go through at this point of the season, because we're at a crossroads point of sorts in the calendar. We now have enough of a sample to reliably evaluate performance, but we're also left with more than enough time to turn things around if all of the other performance indicators suggest a change is coming.

Just because someone has been producing in the early going doesn't necessarily mean he'll continue to do so. Especially if the process hasn't been there, and he doesn't have something concrete to fall back on should the bounces stop going his way. Just as in life, luck in sports is great while you have it, but it can be quite fleeting.

That same logic applies when stretched out to the team level. While points banked in the standings are all that matters when it comes to determining team success, how teams got there can tell us just as much about how successful they are going to be moving forward.

So let's stick with that theme by digging beyond the wins and losses to get a better sense of how well teams have been playing, and where they're headed. Whose underlying numbers don't match up with the results they've received so far?


The sleeping giants

One simple yet effective metric I like to look at as a smell test for teams is the amount of time they spend leading versus trailing in their games. The logic is pretty intuitive: The better you are as a team, the more likely you are to be outscoring your opposition at any given time.

Looking at pure wins and losses on the surface can be quite misleading. In particular, there's all sorts of noise in one-goal wins and two points acquired via shootouts and three-on-three overtime. String together enough of those in a row, and you can really fake your way up the standings early in the season.

But if you truly are a top team that should be feared, you're typically not going to be leaving the outcome up to chance like that. If you're a top team, you're going to make a habit of taking care of business by thoroughly walloping your opponents from the jump. There can be some outliers early in the season based on wonky results, but over the long haul we should theoretically see that trend start to crystallize.

These are the teams that have spent the largest percentage of their total time on the ice this season holding a lead (data is courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, and is current through the games of Dec. 16):

1. Colorado Avalanche: 46.02%
2. Washington Capitals: 42.94%
3. Boston Bruins: 40.99%
4. Tampa Bay Lightning: 39.18%
5. New York Islanders: 38.82%
6. Vegas Golden Knights: 36.99%
7. Dallas Stars: 36.98%
8. Arizona Coyotes: 35.87%
9. Carolina Hurricanes: 35.62%
10. St. Louis Blues: 34.32%

It's a pretty consensus list of the top teams this season, which means that the one name that really stands out here is the Tampa Bay Lightning. Not that they aren't a top team in their own right, but simply because of the general perception of how their season has gone.

The idea that there's something wrong with the team is largely a consequence of the unrealistic expectations the Lightning set for themselves with their phenomenal past season, when they won 62 games and took home nearly every accolade imaginable. They obviously haven't been as good as last season's juggernaut, but this version looks like it'll be just fine in its own right. The Lightning are out of a playoff spot right now, but their underlying résumé looks like one of a sleeping giant as opposed to a team that's at any real risk of actually missing out on the postseason.

Beyond just the time-spent-leading metric, here are some other notable categories and the Lightning's NHL rank:

  • 5-on-5 shot share: 52% (8th)

  • 5-on-5 high-danger chance share: 54.6% (4th)

  • 5-on-5 expected goal share: 53.5% (5th)

  • Power play efficiency: 11.2 goals/hour (2nd)

If there's one area they need to clean up, it's in net. They've dipped all the way down to 22nd in save percentage and 24th in goals against at 5-on-5, while being an even worse 23rd in save percentage and 27th in goals against across all situations.

That's primarily on Andrei Vasilevskiy, who hasn't looked like himself yet. After saving 26.4 goals above average last season, good for second best in the league, he has cost his team 1.2 goals above average in his 23 appearances thus far (putting him at 32nd among 55 qualified netminders).

Considering he's 25 years old, coming off a Vezina Trophy campaign, and has been blessed with arguably the best set of physical tools we've seen from a goalie, it's unlikely he suddenly forgot how to stop pucks since last season. The goaltending position can be a highly unpredictable one, but if ever there was a candidate to put it all together and rip off a hot stretch of games that flips those early-season numbers, he's it.

It makes for good fodder to wonder whether last season's postseason failure fundamentally "broke" the Lightning, and whether they'll ever be the same. Beyond some minor things that are easily fixable, there's nothing in their underlying metrics that reflects that theory. If there's one psychological area where that may hold some water, it's that they're potentially changing the way they're approaching the regular season.

With 82 games on the agenda, the regular season is a marathon, not a sprint, and the Lightning can afford to bide their time and play the long game. Especially considering how wide open the Atlantic Division is beyond the Bruins. Based on the glimpses of dominance they've flashed in spurts to show us that it's still there, the Lightning remain in great position to eventually pile up points in a hurry and surge up the standings.


'Show me a good coach, and I'll show you a good goalie'

This preseason, I was firmly in the group that believed the Winnipeg Jets weren't going to be very good. The argument was that the losses they incurred on the blue line over the summer would simply be too extreme for them to overcome. Down four of their five most heavily used defensemen from the prior season, it seemed more than fair to project them to struggle to keep the puck out of their own net with any real consistency.

Not only has that not been the case so far, it's actually been quite the opposite. The Jets currently sit as the third seed in the Central Division, and have allowed the eighth-fewest goals against on a per-minute basis. How have they managed to completely flip the script and exceed preseason expectations?

Kudos to goaltender Connor Hellebuyck, whose efforts this season have been nothing short of Herculean. His .930 save percentage puts him behind only Darcy Kuemper and Ben Bishop among goalies who have started the majority of their team's games this season; unlike those two, he plays behind a far less forgiving defensive system. He ranks second with +16.2 goals saved above average, behind Kuemper. Based on both performance and sheer degree of difficulty, he deserves to be the front-runner for the Vezina Trophy.

Being as reliant on a goaltender as Winnipeg has been is both a blessing and a curse. While it's great in the moment, it can really mess with the perception of reality and trick a team into believing things are better than they really are. Put another way: A great goalie can be viewed as the ultimate concealer, covering for all of the flaws beneath it. But it's also not a particularly sustainable formula for future success, particularly since it means you're relying on a position where performance has historically been the most volatile.

Beyond Hellebuyck having an out-of-body experience, there isn't much in the underlying data to suggest that the Jets are actually better than expected. They give up the seventh-most shots, the third-highest rate of high-danger chances and sixth-most expected goals against. At 5-on-5, they're currently 27th in shot share, 31st in high-danger chance share, and 30th in expected goal share.

Coach Paul Maurice has come to the defense of his team, publicly noting that the Jets keep internal metrics that show they're actually in better standing than indicated by the publicly available ones we use. While it's certainly possible the Jets are not as feeble as they appear to be by all of the numbers above, we've also seen this story enough times over the years to know how it'll eventually turn out. If and when their goaltending comes back to earth, there's going to be a real moment of disillusionment in Winnipeg.

One final note: Here's the list of the teams that have spent the least amount of time leading during their games this season. If the Jets really are as good as their 20-11-2 record would suggest, then they sure are keeping some interesting company:

31. Detroit Red Wings: 19.13%
30. Calgary Flames: 24.83%
29. Columbus Blue Jackets: 25.35%
28. New Jersey Devils: 26.29%
27. Ottawa Senators: 26.57%
26. Winnipeg Jets: 27.61%

It's no coincidence that the two most recent coaches fired for performance reasons were ones who simply couldn't buy a save from the goalies they were handed. The Sharks are currently 30th in team save percentage, while the Devils are not too far ahead, at 28th.

The two teams sandwiched between them are the Red Wings at 31st and the Kings at 29th, but in those particular instances we have a coach who's transparently overseeing a full-blown tank and a coach who was just hired this summer and has a longer leash.

Both New Jersey and San Jose have flaws beyond just that one position, but without the luxury of a goalie who can bail them out when they need it, those flaws have not only been exposed but intensified to the highest order. While John Hynes and Peter DeBoer took the respective falls because it was easier to replace them than their entire teams, we shouldn't expect those clubs to get better until they address the issues that are actually at the root of their problems.


Shot in the arm

The Arizona Coyotes made a splash this week when they traded for Taylor Hall, and it was an important move for a number of reasons.

It signals another step toward legitimacy for the Coyotes, showing that they're willing to spend the type of money it takes to win. While their overall cap number is still inflated by the empty shell of Marian Hossa's contract, the new ownership group has invested some legitimate resources into this roster.

The team is spending north of $70 million in real dollars this season, and with pricey long-term commitments to players like Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz, Christian Dvorak and Jakob Chychrun, it's clear that this really is a new era of hockey in the desert.

By going out and supplementing that core by landing exciting star players like Phil Kessel and Hall, the Coyotes are giving people a legitimate reason to watch their games, buy their jerseys and fill up the seats. Of course, all of that ultimately will take you only so far. As teams like the Hurricanes and Lightning have reaffirmed most recently, when it comes to keeping the attention of fans, nothing is more important than consistently contending for a playoff spot.

That takes us to the on-ice perspective, where the significance of the acquisition is rather obvious. For as stingy as the Coyotes are under Rick Tocchet, they struggle just as much offensively. They're 25th in offense at 5-on-5, and 29th overall. If they're going to pose a legitimate threat to not only make the playoffs but advance beyond the first round, those figures will need to improve.

Hall gives them a chance to do just that, because he's a player through whom they can funnel the offense. While his overall production this season has been rather underwhelming by his own lofty standards, it's unfair to evaluate it in isolation without considering the circumstances. He was in a tough situation, essentially playing out the string on a team that couldn't get out of its own way. Now he jumps into a more competitive environment and gets a fresh start, which should go a long way toward getting him going. So will some natural regression, once he stops converting only 5.5% of his shots into goals, and gets closer to his career average just north of 10%.

To put into perspective just how badly the Coyotes need his talents, he comes to the team as their leading scorer despite the low shooting percentage, having played on the 29th-ranked power play in New Jersey, and having played five fewer games than Arizona has.

Whether he'll be able to move the needle enough by himself to make a real difference remains to be seen. The Yotes continue to deploy a low-event, defensively oriented system that doesn't do high-volume offensive players like Hall any favors -- as Kessel can surely confirm. That said, the Coyotes like to turn defense into offense by counterattacking off the rush, which fits into how Hall likes to attack. Plus, this immediately becomes the best NHL team on which he has ever played, which says as much about his time in the league as it does about the 2019-20 Coyotes.

For as deficient as they are offensively, there's a certain baseline level of competence in Arizona that Hall has never really enjoyed. No team he has ever played on has had a goal share north of 45% at 5-on-5 with him off the ice, which is stunningly bad, and explains why a player of his caliber has appeared in only five total playoff games.

The Coyotes are betting on those numbers changing this season, and considering the reasonable price they had to pay to make it happen, it's hard to fault them for taking their chances.


Out of the infirmary, and into the penthouse

While their claim to being the team that's been most aggressively ravaged by injuries this season may be viably contested by only the Avalanche, the success the Pittsburgh Penguins have had despite all of the man games they've already lost has been staggering. Here's the exact list of players they've missed for extended stretches, and how many games they've each missed:

For those keeping score at home, that amounts to six of their top nine forwards, and their top three defensemen. Credit to Mike Sullivan and the masterful job he has done mixing and matching out of necessity. He's operating at the highest level of coaching right now, where he can plug and play nearly anyone in an important spot on the depth chart without the team missing a beat.

The Penguins have been downright dominant as a team at 5-on-5, coming out near the top of nearly every single important performance indicator:

  • Shot share: 2nd

  • High-danger chance share: 2nd

  • Goal share: 3rd

  • Expected goal share: 1st

As excellent as Sullivan and the supporting cast have been, it needs to be mentioned that Pittsburgh is uniquely equipped to survive losing its No. 1 center for a prolonged period of time ... because it happens to have two of them on hand.

When Evgeni Malkin missed 11 games early this season, Sidney Crosby put the team on his back and carried it to a 7-4 record. He had five goals, nine assists and 32 shots in those 11 games. With Crosby on the ice at 5-on-5, the Penguins outscored opponents 11-5, while controlling a 57.9% shot share and 56.5% high-danger chance share.

When Crosby got hurt, Malkin casually slid up the depth chart and assumed his spot down the middle playing with Jake Guentzel. In the 17 games that Crosby has missed since then, the Penguins have a 10-4-3 record largely because Malkin has taken his game to another stratosphere. During that stretch Malkin's résumé includes:

  • 6 goals, 17 assists

  • 53 shots on goal, 84 shot attempts

  • Penguins up 19-12 with Malkin on ice at 5-on-5

  • Penguins up 26-15 with him on ice in all situations

  • Penguins have 60.1% shot share, 64.3% high-danger chance share with him on ice

Based on his full career, it's no surprise that Malkin has been able to do this. But considering his decline in production last season and shaky start to this season, it's been reassuring to see that Malkin still has this in him. The Metropolitan Division is stacked right now, but those who counted the Penguins out in 2019-20 were clearly premature in doing so.

Sources: Vidal fuming at Barca's Clasico snub

Published in Soccer
Wednesday, 18 December 2019 02:20

Barcelona midfielder Arturo Vidal stormed out of Tuesday's training session after learning he would not start against Real Madrid on Wednesday, sources have told ESPN.

Vidal, 32, usually stays on after training for shooting practice with a number of other first-team players but left early when coach Ernesto Valverde revealed he would on the bench in the Clasico.

Several players tried to comfort Vidal but the Chilean international, who the club fear could now push for a January move away from Camp Nou, could not be calmed down.

Inter Milan, coached by Antonio Conte, who worked with Vidal previously at Juventus, are long-time admirers of the former Bayern Munich man.

They held informal talks with Barca last week before the Champions League game between the two sides but the Spanish champions made their position clear: unless they receive an offer they can't say no to, Vidal will not leave midseason.

There has been speculation that Inter could tempt Barca by offering them first refusal or a reduced price on striker Lautaro Martinez or midfielder Stefano Sensi, whose loan they are expected to make permanent in the summer for €25 million.

However, sources explained to ESPN that Barca would only entertain a cash offer for Vidal, whose contract runs until 2021. The club need to bring in €124m before the end of June to balance the books.

The situation could change slightly, though, if Vidal pushes for a move. The club are aware of comments he made in Chile last month, when he said if he wasn't playing and didn't feel important he would have to move on.

Since then, he's started just once -- a meaningless match against Inter in the Champions League -- and has seen Ivan Rakitic, who had previously made just one start in 17 games, return to the team ahead of him.

In total, he has made 17 appearances this season, scoring four goals, but 12 of those outings have been as a substitute.

Vidal joined Barca from Bayern for just under €20m in the summer of 2017. He has made 70 appearances for the club.

Wenger: Arteta can be success at Arsenal

Published in Soccer
Wednesday, 18 December 2019 01:51

Arsene Wenger has said he left Arsenal in a strong position despite the club's difficulties this season and has backed Mikel Arteta to be a success as manager.

Sources have told ESPN Arteta is expected to be announced Arsenal's new boss following Unai Emery's sacking as manager.

And Wenger, who left the club after 22 years in May 2018, believes Arteta has the ability to succeed at Arsenal if he takes over from caretaker Freddie Ljungberg.

"I am an Arsenal supporter. And at the moment I support the manager in charge and the manager in charge is Ljungberg. When Arteta will be in charge I will support Arteta," Wenger told Sky Sports.

"He [Arteta] is intelligent, he has passion, he has knowledge, but Ljungberg [does] as well.

"I believe that Arteta has certainly a great future, he has certainly learned a lot in his first position as an assistant coach and after that as well he will have to deal with the fact that he has no experience at that level and he will have to get surrounded well."

Emery replaced Wenger in 2018 but was sacked in November after the club's worst start to a league season in almost 30 years.

Arsenal are 10th, seven points off the top four, but Wenger -- who finished sixth in his final season in charge -- insists he is not to blame for the club's predicament.

"When I left the club was in a very strong financial position and they bought many players in-between -- they have not all worked out," Wenger added.

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"I believe that it's not a question of time. The change can be very efficient very quickly, it's just about the right decision-making and that's all that it's about in football, it's about good players.

"We speak about the success of Liverpool, of course they have a great manager, but you have to say as well that in the last three-four years, they bought the right players."

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