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Lowe: James Harden vs. double-teams -- who's winning?

Published in Basketball
Saturday, 07 December 2019 08:00

In a way, it all started because of Trae Young. Eight days before the Denver Nuggets tweaked the blueprint for guarding James Harden by double-teaming him everywhere, Young lit up Denver for 42 points in a rare road win for the Atlanta Hawks.

"After that game, I said never again will one player beat us," Nuggets coach Michael Malone told ESPN.

Malone rectified that against Harden on Nov. 20. Denver doubled Harden all over the floor, sometimes early in the shot clock and sometimes late -- random, last-second blitzes from odd angles. The Nuggets held Harden to 27 points on 16 shots and beat the Houston Rockets 105-95 -- a major reversal after Houston had won 10 of 11 prior matchups.

"It definitely worked," Malone said. "Will it work next time? We'll see."

Since that game, Harden has been doubled earlier in possessions and more aggressively than perhaps any player ever over any extended stretch. The LA Clippers trapped Harden even though they sport some of the league's best perimeter defenders. The Toronto Raptors and Dallas Mavericks dialed it up to 11; they had second defenders ready before Harden crossed the half-court line.

The most sophisticated tracking systems do not have language to evaluate what teams are doing to Harden. Second Spectrum, the gold standard, cannot directly tell you how many points per possession Houston scores when opponents trap Harden.

You can get that figure for Harden pick-and-rolls. That's a discrete play type these systems identify and log. There is no play type for "guy walking near half-court when two enemies bum-rush him." It's not an isolation. There is no screen. It's just a dude strolling with a basketball.

The only solution is to watch every Houston possession and tabulate what happens after the trap. The gurus at ESPN Stats & Information and I did that, starting with that Nuggets game and running through Sunday's action.

The results suggest the gambit isn't working -- yet. Houston has scored 1.093 points per chance on shots that follow -- after one or more passes -- Harden dishing out of a double-team as he crosses midcourt, a mark that would lead all half-court offenses both for the season and since Nov. 20.

That dovetails with public data. Houston has scored 114.3 points per 100 possessions since Nov. 20 -- fourth overall, per NBA.com data. That number jumps to 116.6 with Harden on the floor. Houston in that span has averaged a mammoth 1.14 points per possession anytime opponents trap Harden on a pick-and-roll, according to Second Spectrum data.

"It doesn't bother us," Houston coach Mike D'Antoni told ESPN. "It's like playing against a zone. The more James sees it, the easier it's going to be. We are getting wide-open shots."

The main goal is obvious: Get the ball out of Harden's hands and make his supporting cast beat you.

Harden's shots and points are down since Nov. 20 in Denver, even though that nine-game stretch includes both 60- and 50-point outbursts.

Harden is a control freak. He arranges the chess pieces the way he likes. Trapping robs him of control. It steers his teammates into playmaking roles outside their normal skill sets -- a recipe for turnovers:

Houston's turnovers are up slightly since the trapping started, and opponents are punishing them more in transition. Houston's defense ranks just 18th in points allowed per possession over those nine games. They are 4-5.

The double-teams are a direct outgrowth of Houston exchanging Chris Paul for Russell Westbrook. Last season, Houston surrounded Harden with Clint Capela and three capable shooters. Trapping Harden meant a near instant catch-and-shoot 3.

Now, most of Houston's lineups feature two non-shooters -- Westbrook and Capela. It's easier to defend 3-on-4 below the trap if two of those four won't launch 3s. Perhaps three defenders can chase those four non-Harden Rockets until the defense resets itself.

Zoom further out, and the double-teaming hints at tensions surrounding the very nature of the sport. As Kirk Goldsberry outlined in his must-read book "Sprawlball," the overhaul in offensive strategy during the past decade stems from a simple fact: In a game of finite possessions, three is so much more than two that teams should do almost anything to chase that extra point.

Before 2017, teams pursued 3s using traditional tools: pick-and-roll, drive-and-kick, shooters fanning to the wing in transition. In 2017-18, Harden became the first player ever to consistently generate 3-pointers one-on-one -- no screen, no prelude -- with what has become his patented move: the step-back trey. Last season, he attempted almost 700 step-back 3s -- more than any other team.

Few conceived it was possible to build an efficient offense around isolation 3s. Harden proved he could make enough, and draw enough three-shot fouls, to do it. If it wasn't Harden, it was going to be someone else. The math made it inevitable that some player, sometime, would stretch the boundaries of the sport this way.

Teams are resorting to traps because they feel they have no alternative -- that the risk of fouling Harden is too high to defend him with one player. Some who worry the game has veered too far toward 3-pointers argue the only fix is to change the rules somehow. (This is the subject of Goldsberry's book.)

In a bizarre circle-of-life twist, trapping has reimposed stylistic normalcy upon the Rockets. This is the antithesis of one-on-one math ball, even if the result is a 3:

Houston's supporting cast is punishing the traps. Even if Westbrook refuses to shoot, he uses the open space to slice into the lane, draw help and kick the ball to someone else.

PJ Tucker has hit 44% from deep and 51% from the corners. Ben McLemore is reborn. Austin Rivers is 14-of-40 on 3s since the Nuggets game, and he has been a steadying two-way presence.

Going into Monday's game against the Sacramento Kings, other Rockets had hit an astonishing 15 of 21 3s directly off passes Harden tossed out of traps, per ESPN Stats & Info data. (This does not include conventional traps on pick-and-rolls -- just all-out two-against-one traps.) On those shots, the closest defenders were more than seven feet away. Four of Houston's 10 best games in terms of shot quality -- their expected effective field-goal percentage based on the location of each shot, the shooter and the proximity of the nearest defender -- have come since Nov. 20 in Denver, per Second Spectrum.

Their shooting around Harden should only improve. Danuel House Jr. missed three recent games, but he is back and shooting 43% from deep. Eric Gordon has hit 38% of his catch-and-shoot 3s as a Rocket. Coaches wonder if Gordon's return from knee surgery will mark the tipping point at which trapping becomes untenable.

"When we get him back, I don't see how it works," D'Antoni said.

"Them not having Gordon really helped," Malone said. "One less shooter."

Houston and Harden already are growing comfortable gashing the traps. Westbrook often flashes to the top of the arc, takes a bounce pass from Harden and attacks 4-on-3 up the gut. On Harden pick-and-rolls, Houston might station Westbrook on the wing as a release valve -- a classic D'Antoni technique known as "shorting" the pick-and-roll:

The Rockets vary Westbrook's positioning or have Harden attack from places where it is hard to trap -- the sidelines and even the corners.

They also know the best way to defang double-teams is to rush the ball up the floor before the defense can spring one. Westbrook has injected that sort of pace. His presence chips away at one trap-busting method -- long-range shooting -- but creates an entirely new one.

The Rockets also are smart about having Capela screech to a halt in semi-transition and screen for Harden near midcourt. Capela's defender -- the guy who is supposed to trap -- is often running toward the paint, unaware Capela and Harden have called an audible. If Harden gets downhill, it's over.

Interestingly, the Raptors were ready for all of this on Thursday in Toronto -- and it didn't really matter. Instead of doubling Harden with whatever defender happened to be nearby, they designated Fred VanVleet as Harden's second shadow. The Capela midcourt screens no longer worked, because Capela's guy wasn't supposed to double. It was VanVleet's job, and he was ready.

The Kings tried something similar Monday, only they sometimes had two extra defenders sandwich Harden -- and linger in something like a three-man trap long after Capela slipped back toward the rim:

Doubling Harden with smaller players has the downstream benefit of leaving larger, rangier defenders to protect the rim and fly at shooters.

When Harden tried to outrace the traps against Toronto, VanVleet was lurking:

Panicked defenses have swarmed Stephen Curry in transition like that for years. Other Golden State Warriors get dunks because two and three defenders surround Curry 30 feet from the rim. That is happening with Harden now.

Houston is also third in offensive rebounding rate since the Nuggets went all-in on trapping. Scrambling, zone-style defenses have a harder time locating opponents to box out. D'Antoni is urging guys to hit the glass.

"'We have been emphasizing it," D'Antoni said. "It's a constant."

The Rockets can stick Harden off the ball and let Westbrook initiate. Teams aren't going to double Harden away from the ball. Westbrook can kick to Harden and let him attack a jumbled defense. Either iteration of the Westbrook-Harden pick-and-roll -- rarely used now -- would raise complications for trapping defenses.

The traps might allow Harden to preserve energy. It's more taxing to drive into the teeth of the defense over and over than to give up the ball at half-court. Toward the end of the first quarter in Toronto, D'Antoni asked Harden when he wanted to rest. Harden replied he was still fresh because he hadn't done much beyond passing out of doubles, D'Antoni said.

And yet: The trapping probably isn't going away. Traps might expose open 3s for role players, but Houston is going to take a ton of 3s regardless.

"That's the way I looked at it," Toronto coach Nick Nurse told ESPN. "They are going to take a million anyway."

Maybe it's easier to swallow McLemore and Tucker beating you than to watch Harden get 50.

Doubling done well can minimize Harden's free throw attempts. Houston's opponents should face less foul trouble. Forcing the Rockets to pass more also bumps up the risk of live-ball turnovers. One seldom-discussed benefit of iso ball -- including Harden's brand -- is that it typically results in a low turnover rate.

Steals don't just represent empty trips for the Rockets. They are the most profitable way for opponents to start an offensive possession. Snare enough, and the math behind trapping might tilt toward those opponents.

Trapping also could take a mental toll on Harden. He wants to shoot. Even if trapping is the ultimate compliment, you can sense Harden doesn't respect it. Disdain drips from his fingertips when he finally acquiesces to the trap and passes. They are basketball eye rolls.

Harden already has evinced some frustration when his outlets don't go where he wants:

This was the very next Houston possession:

That's not a bad shot. It was very much an I'm shooting this no matter what because I'm sick of passing shot. There have been a few of those. Late in the Raptors game, Harden found himself open on the wing, caught a pass from Rivers, drained a rare catch-and-shoot 3, and flashed the prayer hands gesture at Rivers: Thank you for satisfying my craving. Harden was overeager against Sacramento Monday whenever he spotted single coverage, and careened his way into eight turnovers.

It is worth playing those mind games. There will be a quarter or a half when it works: When role players miss, Harden gets fidgety, and Houston goes haywire.

"He's gonna get frustrated," D'Antoni said. "If we go long periods where guys aren't making shots, he might try to do it all himself. And you couldn't really blame him."

Playoff teams -- the teams Houston will see when it matters -- are naturally more stocked with long, smart defenders who can survive 3-on-4 below the traps. They also will be better at disguising traps and finding the middle ground between pressuring Harden and overcommitting with an obviousness he diagnoses a mile away.

No one strategy is going to contain Harden. He is too good. The Rockets have just enough shooting, and they can always juice it by removing Capela and slotting Tucker at center. The best teams are going to toggle between lots of looks.

Those teams should keep the traps in their arsenal, regardless of the early returns.

Texas adds LHP Rodriguez after Japan breakout

Published in Baseball
Monday, 09 December 2019 19:13

Left-hander Joely Rodriguez and the Texas Rangers have agreed to a two-year, $5.5 million deal, sources confirmed to ESPN's Jeff Passan.

The deal includes a club option for a third year.

The 28-year-old Rodriguez spent the past three years with the Chunichi Dragons in Japan. He was one of the league's top setup men in 2019, posting a 1.64 ERA while striking out 77 in 60.1 innings.

Prior to that, he spent parts of two seasons (2016-17) with the Phillies, going 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA in 38 relief appearances.

Early this past season, Lance Lynn was wearing his fourth uniform in less than two years, and his pitching was a mess. On May 4, he walked five batters and struck out only three, giving up five runs and inflating his ERA to nearly 6. He was in the second month of a three-year deal with the Texas Rangers, he was about to turn 32, and at this point in his career he was a pitcher you were pretty sure you understood.

Two years earlier, as a Cardinal, Lynn had thrown more sinking fastballs than four-seamers. But as a Ranger, he reimagined himself: After May 4, almost 80 percent of his fastballs were four-seamers. He also threw his slider -- some call his a cutter -- more than he ever had. He even added a tick of velocity to all of his pitches. "Faced with a crisis that could have sent his season into a death spiral, Lynn was willing to accept and embrace the data-heavy approach of the coaching staff," Evan Grant later wrote for the Dallas Morning News.

These were not the small adjustments a pitcher is always working on with his pitching coach. These weren't tweaks to make sure he was repeating his delivery and throwing with conviction and managing his fatigue. This was a radical reinvention of who Lynn was. He'd always pitched as if his strength was one thing. The Rangers convinced him the exact opposite was true. It worked. To wit:

  • Lynn would finish fifth in the American League Cy Young race.

  • He ranked second among all AL pitchers in FanGraphs' WAR model.

  • Through July 2019, he had had one start in his career with more than 20 swinging strikes. In the final two months of the season, he had four.

"You have to be willing to [adapt] or you are going to be out of the game," Grant quoted Lynn as saying. "I'm getting better as an old-school pitcher by using new-school stuff." Wrote Grant: "Lynn said the new approach is 'more fun.' He acknowledged the puzzle of pitching is more difficult to solve than ever before, but also more satisfying to do so."

Would this all have happened if Lynn was still a Cardinal? Or a Twin? Or even a Yankee? Or were the Rangers, of all 30 teams, the one that most clearly saw the necessity of these changes? If they were, then were they also the ones who were most qualified to make the case to Lynn? And did that make Lynn more likely to accept more radical recommendations than he would have if they'd come from anybody else? In a way, these questions -- applied to Lynn, and maybe also to DJ LeMahieu, and to Charlie Morton, and to Robinson Chirinos, and to Nelson Cruz -- are among the most significant questions hanging over this year's free-agent class.

The conventional wisdom: Players who leave their teams do worse than those who stay

For as long as there has been free agency, there have been efforts by teams to restrict just how free it is. The original plan was to limit how many teams could actually negotiate with free agents, but that was a convoluted failure, so owners bargained for "free-agent compensation." Those are the draft picks teams have to give up if they sign a good player who had been with another team. Compensation isn't really the right word for it, though. The purpose is to restrict player movement by taxing teams that sign another club's players, and by taxing players who sign elsewhere.

But little did teams know there was already a sort of a tax in place, one that occurred naturally: Players who signed elsewhere seemed to perform worse than players who re-signed with their original teams.

This was the finding of sabermetric writer Matt Swartz, first at Baseball Prospectus, then in the Hardball Times. "When a player reaches free agency, his former club must have more knowledge about him than potential new teams," he wrote in the 2012 Hardball Times Annual. "How could it not? It has employed him and worked with him daily. But does this extra information matter? Does another team's extra knowledge about a player affect the market? Should GMs think twice before signing a free agent from another team? Yes, a thousand times, yes."

Swartz called this the OPP Premium. He found, in 2012, that teams had paid 39% more for Other People's Players than for their own players. If you were a team and you believed that, it might make you less eager to sign a free agent from another team. The owners' wishes -- that player mobility be taxed -- was seemingly being done for them.

But is it still true?

The new reality: Change is good

Last spring, Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik published "The MVP Machine," a book about player development. If the first phase of sabermetrics was about using better information to identify the best players, the authors argued that the new one -- the one we're in now -- is all about using information to improve players. An explosion of new data available to all teams -- spin rates and spin axes and high-speed video of pitches leaving fingertips -- made it possible for teams to understand other teams' players at a nearly molecular level.

The book is filled with stories of players who were languishing until they found the right new team, the right new teammate or the right new coach, who told them something about themselves they hadn't seen. For example, Justin Verlander, who reached new peaks after the Tigers traded him to Houston: "What they're good at is telling you what you're good at," Verlander said. "I didn't realize that my two-seamer was an ineffective four-seamer, basically." Houston introduced him to high-speed cameras that helped him turn his slider into an elite pitch. And, once Verlander had bought in, his stature in the clubhouse made it easier for Houston to convince other acquisitions to make changes, including Gerrit Cole and Ryan Pressly. "During the '80s and '90s, it was steroids," Seattle Mariners director of player development Andy McKay told the authors. "And now it can be new information."

Of course, it doesn't matter if Houston or New York or Texas knows how to make you a superstar if Houston or New York or Texas doesn't acquire you. Free agency makes it possible for them to: If, out of 30 teams, one thinks it has the One Neat Trick to make a player better, that team has the incentive to bid more to sign him. And, while some players might be more receptive to advice from coaches they've known a long time, others might be more receptive to hearing from new coaches. As any parent who sees their child talk back at home but listen to a cool teacher or aunt knows, familiarity can breed complacency and contempt.

In 2017, Swartz revisited the topic with updated data. He found the tax still existed, but it was "eroding." He hasn't looked again in the three seasons since, but he tells us, "I wouldn't be surprised if it disappeared entirely since. I think the gap came from an information gap, and with so much extra information available to everyone, I would bet it closed. Plus, the Nationals crushed on acquiring other team's free agents and may have weighed the results in the other direction." Swartz is a consultant with the Nationals now.

So I looked. I used a different pool of free-agent contracts than Swartz did in his initial studies. Like him, I wanted to limit the inquiry to somewhat high-profile free agents, as opposed to, say, players who were waived and signed minor league deals. But I also wanted to expand the pool, especially with only three years of data to collect. So I included every player listed on MLB Trade Rumors' annual Top Free Agents list, along with anybody who signed a multiyear deal in any of the past three offseasons. I didn't include players signed out of foreign leagues.

That gave us about 190 free-agent deals, including 41 players who re-signed with a team they'd been with the previous season. Here's how much each group has been paid (so far) for their production (so far):

2016-17: $11.1M/WAR re-signed; $18.3M/WAR signed elsewhere

2017-18: $11.2M/WAR re-signed; $13.8M/WAR signed elsewhere

2018-19: $12.3M/WAR re-signed; $6.6M/WAR signed elsewhere

Combined: $11.3M/WAR re-signed; $11.8M/WAR signed elsewhere

There is, as you see, the potential for a lot of fluctuation from year to year. But over the past three years, the gap between players who signed elsewhere and who re-signed is negligible. And in 2018-19 specifically, it inverted: Players who signed elsewhere, including Cy Young candidate Charlie Morton and MVP candidate LeMahieu, were much more productive than the players who re-signed with their original teams. (WAR, in this case, refers to Baseball Prospectus' model, which uses a slightly higher replacement level than Baseball Reference and FanGraphs models.)

If we limit the survey to only multiyear contracts, as Swartz did originally -- to really focus on more premium free agents -- the OPP players (those who signed elsewhere) actually produced more for less over the past three years. If we limit it to just hitters, the OPP players win again. The re-signed pitchers were better than the OPP pitchers over the three-year period, but only because of a disastrous group of OPP pitchers signed in the 2016-17 offseason. Over the past two years, the OPP pitchers were better than the re-signed pitchers.

That's certainly not conclusive of anything: It's a small sample, it's based on player value that can only be measured imprecisely, it uses average annual salaries that might not capture the complexities of player compensation, and so on. But it fits with the larger story of player development that we've been hearing from players, teams and writers. For instance, here's Zack Britton, a few months after he joined the New York Yankees in 2018:

"I'd never been exposed to that amount of information. And it's not just, 'Here's a stack of stuff to look over.' It's [targeted] to each individual player. I don't want to get into specifics, but some of it is how my ball moves, both my sinker and my slider, compared to different hitters' swings. It kind of opens your eyes to things you maybe didn't think of when you didn't have that information."

Britton was acquired in summer, and then he re-signed with the Yankees last offseason, which means he's a "re-signed" player in our survey. But what he describes is a promising view of free agency and player mobility: Moving isn't a tax. It's an opportunity.

From Silicon Valley to the baseball diamond

There's a theory that part of what made Silicon Valley such a center of technological innovation was that, through an accident of history, non-compete clauses were illegal in California. Employees were constantly moving between companies, sharing insider information with their new co-workers, so that the crucial piece of information needed for new leaps forward could never be kept secret. "Such dissemination, known among economists as 'knowledge spillover,' spurs innovation," Charles Duhigg wrote in the New Yorker. "Recent studies suggest that, in some industries, allowing employees to move freely among companies can dramatically increase the pace of innovation."

A version of that might be happening in baseball, through free agency. Players who leave one team for another aren't necessarily suffering from having to learn a new city and a new ballpark. They might instead be benefiting from exposure to a new front office, new technology, new teammates -- all the new information that can unlock something in their career.

Harlequins number eight Alex Dombrandt would flourish in the international environment, says England scrum-half and club team-mate Danny Care.

The uncapped 22-year-old is thought to be pushing for a place in England's Six Nations squad after starring for Quins of late.

"He reads the game so well, he's smart and makes the right decisions all the time," Care said.

"You put him in an England shirt and he is only going to excel."

Care believes Dombrandt would provide England with an extra dimension if he made his international debut.

The former university student is on head coach Eddie Jones' radar after appearing for an England XV in a non-cap game against the Barbarians in May.

"For me he's got everything. He's hungry for it, he's got the work-rate and the work ethic, and he's a good boy," Care told the Rugby Union Weekly podcast.

Dombrandt only broke into the Quins first team a year ago after completing his undergraduate studies at Cardiff Metropolitan University.

But after a breakthrough season last time around, he recently signed a new deal to stay at The Stoop despite firm interest from Northampton Saints.

"He went to uni, did it properly and enjoyed himself, but he's got a chance to play professional rugby and he's grasped it with both hands," Care added.

"I'm not picking the England squad, but 100% [he should be in].

"I just think if you throw him in there, and you have him running lines alongside Billy Vunipola, Mako Vunipola, Joe Marler - which attacker is the defender going to take?

"He is different, and there aren't many of him around. And he can play six [blind-side flanker], seven [open-side flanker] or [number] eight."

It's really an exciting time for NHL prospects at every level. The past few years have seen multiple exceptional seasons in terms of production, and high-end skill is so much more spread out among players. The game is getting better because of it.

Let's take a quick look around the globe at prospects who are off to hot starts to the 2019-20 season in various leagues.

1. Jack Dugan, RW, Vegas Golden Knights

Current team: Providence College (Hockey East)

Dugan is the top scorer in college hockey by quite a bit, with 33 points in his first 17 games. He entered last weekend with as many assists (27) as anyone else in the country has points. For reference, Calgary's Johnny Gaudreau had 31 points through his first 17 games of his 80-point Hobey Baker season with Boston College in 2013-14. Thus, Dugan is the clear Hobey front-runner at this stage of the season, as the catalyst for a Providence team that appears to be among the best in the country.

Dugan was the ninth player the Golden Knights took in their first draft (2017), selected in the fifth round at 142nd overall out of Northwood School in Lake Placid, New York. In the years since, he has looked more and more like a late-round steal, having starred in the USHL before making great gains in college. His vision and ability to read plays are excellent, he has good speed, and there's a good dose of skill in his 6-foot-2 frame. As good as he has been the past two years, and as much as I've liked him as a player, what he is doing this season is well beyond any reasonable expectation for him.


2. Connor McMichael, C, Washington Capitals

Current team: London Knights (OHL)

On the Pittsburgh Penguins team plane, John Marino challenges Sam Lafferty in Wordscapes, a fast-moving game they play on their mobile devices. They swipe different letter combinations into words, filling small crossword puzzles and earning points.

If this sound like something a Harvard student would play to pass the time on a team flight, that would be correct. If this sounds like something two NHL rookies would partake in while the veterans are dabbling in other pastimes on that same flight, that would also be correct.

"I don't think I've graduated to the card table yet. But maybe one day," Marino, 22, told ESPN last week.

This is Marino's first NHL season, but you wouldn't know it from the way he's played for Pittsburgh. Thrust into a prominent role thanks to the team's mounting injuries, Marino has 13 points and a plus-12 rating in 28 games while averaging 19:34 time on ice per contest. He's on the positive side of shot attempts at 5-on-5, and has an expected goals percentage of 58.94. While fellow rookie defensemen Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes have gotten all the attention, Marino is quietly having one of the finest campaigns for a first-year blueliner this season.

Not bad for someone that made the leap from Harvard to the NHL, without spending a minute in the minor leagues.

"It's a significant jump. Just in the logistics. The amount of games that you play, in and of itself, is an adjustment for that make the jump from the college to the pros," said Penguins coach Mike Sullivan. "But John's done a great job. He's gotten better since the beginning of training camp. He's earned his way onto this roster, and he continues to earn his way onto this roster."

The learning curve is steep for any rookie, but even steeper for a rookie defenseman.

"Adjusting to the fast pace, learning what works and what doesn't," said Marino, "but you figure that out quickly at this level."

His college coach has been impressed how fast Marino's figured that out.

"There was no question in my mind that John is a National Hockey League player," said Harvard men's hockey coach Ted Drury. "But I've been a little surprised by how quickly he's been able to adapt."

Also surprising: How Marino ended up in Pittsburgh.


Born just outside of Boston in North Easton, Mass., Marino's first big move on the road to pro hockey was to Nebraska.

In 2015, he relocated to Kearney to play for the Tri-City Storm, a Tier 1 junior team. It took him some time to adjust to the new culture, to the new team and to public high school life.

He made a quick impression on NHL scouts. Central Scouting said "when Marino fills out his frame he shows the potential to be a dominant two-way defenseman" in ranking him No. 63 on their top 100 draft prospects list in 2015. In the NHL draft that year, the Edmonton Oilers selected him No. 154 overall.

After one season in the USHL, he committed to play at Harvard University in 2016.

"Honestly, not many of the students there probably even aware there's a hockey team on campus. Hockey comes second there for most people. If not, third or fourth. Once you're away from the rink, you're away from that hockey lifestyle. So that's nice to have," Marino said.

"There's a ton of athletes on campus. You all kind of get along. There's not one sport that stands out. Everyone's on equal footing because no one, I would say, is really concerned too much about the athletics. A lot of people realize that you're not going to be playing in athletics forever."

Marino played three seasons with Harvard, scoring 42 points in 101 games. He was a shutdown defenseman, and Drury had no problem sending him out against the top talent on other teams.

"He's outstanding in breaking the puck out. He has the poise to make the reads that a defenseman has to make. I compare it to a quarterback understanding what's coming at him," said Drury. "He was a pleasure to coach because he just showed up, played very hard. Never looked tired. Never complained. Just a great teammate on top of being a great player."

As his game improved, the next decision for him grew closer: Would he sign with the Oilers, remain at Harvard for another season, or was there another path to take?

"Their prospect pool was pretty loaded," said Marino of his decision not to sign with the Oilers. "I was planning on going back to school. Then the trade to the Penguins happened."

The Penguins acquired Marino in July for a 2021 sixth-round draft pick. "John is a mobile defenseman who excels at moving the puck while also playing with an edge to his game," Penguins GM Jim Rutherford said at the time. "We are excited to acquire him as we continue to add defensive depth to the organization. The next step is to work on getting a contract done with him."

He signed an entry-level deal with the Penguins, forgoing his last year at Harvard for a shot in the NHL.

"They said that 'he's a guy that's going to challenge for your lineup,'" said Sullivan, "and they were right."

The Penguins aren't too far removed from their last Stanley Cup championship in 2017. Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang and others remain the veteran core of that dressing room. These were players Marino grew up watching. Now, without having played a single minute at any other level of the Penguins' organization, he was their teammate at 22 years old.

"You try not to think of it too much, with all of those names on the wall. Crosby, Malkin, Letang ... all of them. There's so much experience in that room," he said. "But the culture's set up there to help you. All that experience plays to your advantage. You just want to take in as much as you can and learn from the older guys."

Even when one of the older guys is Sidney Crosby.

"You just try to treat him like another teammate. As difficult as that may be sometimes," said Marino.

His transition was made smoother by the Penguins defense corp, which Marino said is "really close." He played with Jack Johnson earlier in the season, whom he described as "awesome." He and Brian Dumoulin bonded over Boston. He and Justin Schultz have talked about what could have been for both in Edmonton, as Schultz was once an Oilers defensive prospect too. He did his best to hang with Kris Letang as his partner.

"You can't really try to do what he does. He's incredibly talented," said Marino. "The game seems to come so easy for him. But he's pretty easy to play with. You know once he has the puck, he's going to make a good play."

Marino has earned these opportunities with steady play, but also because the Penguins have been besieged by injuries. Letang (22 games played), Dumoulin (23) and Schultz (23) have all missed time this season, opening the door for Marino. That the Penguins continue to thrive (17-9-4, and in a wild-card spot) despite these injuries seems, at this point, like it's part of their DNA as a franchise.

"I think it plays to the culture of the organization. They expect wins. Playing the game the right way. It's the next-man-up mentality," said Marino.

But their success has, in a way, opened the door for Marino, as Drury sees it.

"The reality is that with the injuries there and their salary cap situation, in light of the fact that they went to the Stanley Cup Final two years in a row ... they have so many great players, they're trying to make runs to the Stanley Cup, so they might not have the prospect pool that a lower team that hasn't had as much success would have. So that helped with the initial opportunity for John," Drury said.

"But by no means am I trying to take any credit away from how he's playing. Because he's making a transition that's very, very difficult look pretty ordinary."

Sources: Barca put off by €100m Lautaro price tag

Published in Soccer
Tuesday, 10 December 2019 04:30

Barcelona consider Lautaro Martinez the perfect heir to Luis Suarez but sources have told ESPN that the club are looking at more affordable alternatives after being put off by Inter Milan's €100 million-plus price tag.

The Spanish champions have been searching for a long-term replacement for Suarez -- who turns 33 in January and has acknowledged the club's need for a succession plan -- for over a year.

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Antoine Griezmann was signed last summer for €120m with the idea of providing depth centrally. However, with his role so far under coach Ernesto Valverde primarily on the left, the club still want to bring in a specialist No. 9.

Lautaro, 22, has been tracked for a while. Barca have reports dating back to his time at Racing de Avellaneda but it is his form in Europe that has seen their interest increase.

The Argentina international has scored 13 goals this season -- including one against Barca in October -- to help Inter top Serie A as one half of a lethal partnership with Romelu Lukaku.

Barca believe that, excluding Kylian Mbappe, who Paris Saint-Germain have no intention of selling, he's the ideal candidate to replace Suarez.

But they have decided to look elsewhere because, according to a source at the Catalan club, Inter are asking for an "excessive" amount of money at a time when there is not a lot of cash in the Camp Nou coffers.

Therefore, with the possibility of Neymar's return still on the table next summer as well, the club are scouring Europe and South America for players who fall within their budget.

Sources said there are not many credible options around at the moment but that they have drawn up an "interesting but not very long" list of names who fit the bill.

One player who Barcelona have followed with interest this season is FC Salzburg's Erling Haaland. Sources at the club, though, say the Norwegian international has been practically ruled out because they are seeking a profile closer to Suarez's.

Along with ending the long break from playing Test cricket at home, Pakistan would be looking to end a winless - indeed, losing - streak in the format when the first Test against Sri Lanka begins in Rawalpindi tomorrow. It is a fresh start in so many ways - almost like making a debut, as Shan Masood put it - and captain Azhar Ali is very aware that Pakistan have lost all their five Tests in the past 12 months, in South Africa and Australia.

"Test cricket's return to Pakistan after ten years is an opportunity for us to get back on the winning track," Ali said. "We had a tough series in Australia and it's very unfortunate the way we lost there. It was disappointing. But moving forward, we see this home series as an opportunity and advantage to turn things around.

ALSO READ: 'Our pride has been hurt' - Azhar Ali on Australia debacle

"We are excited to be back at home and our grounds are alive again. Cricket is our pride and we will have to quickly return to our groove to give our nation and the team confidence. It's a moment of joy for not only the players but the nation. We will try our best to rectify the mistakes we made recently, and will improve wherever we have been lacking. We have outstanding talent in our squad. They have potential, and if we implement it, our results will be stable."

Pakistan last 'home' series against Sri Lanka was in the UAE in 2017, which they lost 2-0 to bring an end to their blemishless record there. Since moving to the UAE, Pakistan were the only team to not lose a home Test series. They played nine series in the UAE between 2010 and 2017, won five of them and drew four.

"Yes, Mickey does have a lot of insight about us, but we are also ready and believe that whatever the challenge he will throw at us, we will counter" Azhar Ali on Mickey Arthur

"You can never take Sri Lanka easy, they have always been a tough opponent regardless of whether they are playing at home or away," Ali said. "Their bowling and batting is very disciplined and if you have to challenge them, you really have to come hard and be disciplined. We were lacking both with bat and ball in our previous series in Australia, but we have to come back quickly. Test cricket demands discipline, and you have be consistent as well. You can't win in one session but lose in another session."

In Australia, Pakistan picked up just 13 wickets over two Test matches, losing both by an innings. Against Sri Lanka in Rawalpindi, they are likely to field three fast bowlers - Mohammad Abbas, Naseem Shah and Usman Shinwari - alongside Yasir Shah.

"In Australia, we struggled to take 20 wickets, and it has been like this in our last few outings. But obviously we have a new attack, and we cannot write the new fast bowlers off straightaway. They are young, but experience is something they can get by playing more cricket, and we can't buy it," Ali said. "It is a home venue this time, and these boys have been bowling on these tracks in first-class cricket and this will prove the difference in lifting their performance.

ALSO READ: Unbeaten streaks and unexpected triumphs - Pakistan's high points in exile

"We feel this is the best bowling attack we have, and they have to take wickets with the new ball. Yasir Shah, our ace spinner, has struggled in Australia. That is because we weren't able to get wickets up front with the new ball."

Adding a dash of spice to the proceedings will be the fact that Mickey Arthur, Pakistan's coach till recently, is now in the opposition camp. Arthur's intimate knowledge of Pakistani cricketers could make a difference, Ali acknowledged. "Definitely, if someone is with you for so long, he does have a lot of information about you. But in cricket these days, we all have a lot of knowledge about each other's strengths and weaknesses, but yet players score runs. Like David Warner recently.

"Good players cope because they also know that they will be attacked on their weaker points, so they work with counter-attack. Yes, Mickey does have a lot of insight about us, but we are also ready and believe that whatever the challenge he will throw at us, we will counter."

His own batting hasn't been at its best in recent times. Ali's career average is still a healthy 42.45, but in the last two years, he has gone at 24.08, tallying just 602 runs in 13 Tests.

"Whoever is the captain obviously have a playing role as well, and it is really important for me to perform," he said. "I realise that I am unfortunately not making runs, but I am trying to revive my form. My form is good, unfortunately I am not able to transform it into runs. Sometime all you need is runs to get all the things back to normal. I am in international cricket now for nearly ten years, and with such experience, the purpose is to think how I can contribute to win games for my team. It is also important for me as captain to score runs to give a message across the board and lead from the front."

While maybe not the talk of the town, there is plenty of chatter about pitches in Australia. There was the abandonment of the Sheffield Shield game at the MCG and now the intrigue about what will be laid out for the second Test to be staged at the new Perth Stadium. For Australia coach Justin Langer, however, there is just one thing that matters: Test cricket can't afford flat surfaces.

The scenes at the MCG over the weekend were sparked by a pitch that started too soft when the groundsman, Matt Page, went too far after the ground's recent problems with lifeless pitches. Langer sympathised with what they were trying to do because he believes the nature of surfaces are the biggest factor in the longer formats.

ALSO READ: NZ brace for 'most extreme' Test in Perth

"I see flat pitches as a huge problem for the health of cricket," he said. "I've said this for 10, 15 or 20 years, for the health of Test cricket, first-class cricket and even one-day cricket you want to play on wickets where there's a contest between bat and ball. It's been very well documented what happened at the MCG this week, but I know they are trying to push it so they get a contest back because we don't want to see cricket anywhere in the world, in my opinion, on flat wickets which are batsman-dominated, it's just not spectacle.

"The pink ball under lights is trying to keep some great life in Test cricket, but the most important thing for me is to get the wickets right so there's a contest between bat and ball. Hopefully everyone around the world, whether it's spin, seam, swing, pace and bounce, whatever it is, give the characteristic of giving the bowler some hope because we want spectacle in all cricket, it's entertainment. We don't want to see really flat wickets."

Although it does not give the full picture of Test surfaces, Australia comes out well this decade in terms of the percentage of drawn Tests in the country with the third lowest (16.98%) behind South Africa (12.76%) and England (14.49%) - excluding Zimbabwe and Ireland as host nations. The issues at the MCG aside, Langer does not believe there is a big problem with the pitches produced in Australia.

"We've seen [problems] for a few years at the MCG but, I don't know what the statistics are, but I imagine you get a higher proportion of results here in Australia. I think Australian wickets are going pretty well. There's a lot of focus on the MCG at the moment because of the last few years of Test cricket, and that's good that's happening, because we want to see good wickets. But overall I think the wickets in Australia are excellent.

"What we don't want to do is go the other way where there's no chance for a batsman. We've got to get the balance right. We don't want to see wickets that are so green that the game is over in two days. That doesn't make sense either. But when there's wickets falling and the best batsmen score runs, that's great Test cricket or great one-day cricket for me."

For the next few days, much of the attention will be on how the pitch in Perth plays. The surface made a promising start against India last year although was only rated 'average' by the ICC, probably on the basis of some uneven bounce that was on display, which generated a surprised reaction to many who had watched the Test match.

"I'm sure there will be cracks that open up and it's usually part of the drama that is a contest here in Western Australia" Justin Langer

This year the pitch will be baked in hot weather and there is a chance cracks could open up although Langer said they often look worse to the batsman than they really are. The cracks at the WACA became part of cricket folklore, from Tony Greig losing his keys down one to Curtly Ambrose being run out when his bat got stuck to the jagging delivery that bowled James Vince in the 2017-18 Ashes.

"Last year against India, it's exactly what we're looking for in Test cricket," Langer said. "There was a result, it was entertaining cricket. It was fast and bouncy. Obviously the conditions are going to be very hot. Traditionally in Perth when it gets hot you get cracks in the wicket. Having played here for a long time they are usually more psychological than having a physical impact on the game. I'm sure there will be cracks that open up and it's usually part of the drama that is a contest here in WA. I think it's going to be a very good wicket. Hopefully there is some pace and bounce, hopefully there is a contest because that's what we need in Test cricket."

With Melbourne to come and then this series finishing in Sydney the talk about the 22 yards will not go away. The SCG has had issues of its own - some related to the other sports that use the stadium - and the pitches for the Sheffield Shield have not had much pace but spin, which the ground has historically been famous for assisting, has played a key role.

"It's pleasing to see we've got some unique characteristics to the SCG to an extent again," New South Wales captain Peter Nevill said. "I thought our last wicket against Western Australia was a fantastic wicket. It's good to see quality spin and people having to play quality spin. We get criticised enough when we go overseas to the subcontinent [saying] we can't play spin.

"Unless we're preparing conditions in Australia that allow you to play two spinners, and this is the only venue around the country you can, people aren't going to be exposed to that and they're not going to get any better at playing it. I'd love to see the SCG continue to be a spinning wicket and I think the curator needs to be allowed to do so."

And it wasn't just the view of the home captain. "I think that'd be a pretty good deck to roll out for the Test here," Queensland skipper Usman Khawaja said. "You obviously want it to probably break up a little bit more, but I think that's more to do with the weather than the wicket. It's feeling more like the SCG of old, when I started playing."

Sri Lanka captain Dimuth Karunaratne, who has a strong side at his disposal in Pakistan, feels it is a "great pleasure to play a part" in the revival of Test cricket in the country.

When Sri Lanka toured Pakistan for a white-ball series recently, as many as ten of their premier players had opted out, but the experienced Angelo Mathews and Dinesh Chandimal are in the ranks now, and the only major player missing is Suranga Lakmal, who is unwell.

For Karunaratne, it will be a first time playing in Pakistan in any format. "It my first experience here, but I am really excited," Karunaratne said at a press conference after the team had been welcomed in the capital city of Islamabad with around 4000 security personnel looking after their safety. "It's after ten years that we are playing a Test match in Pakistan and it's a great pleasure for me to be part of it.

"Initially, most of the senior players were reluctant to travel to Pakistan over the security situation, but after the one-day and T20 series, those players recommended us to travel here after which we decided to travel. We are delighted to be here and the arrangements are satisfactory."

While Pakistan have lost all their five Tests in the past year, three in South Africa and two in Australia, Sri Lanka have had it better, drawing a Test in New Zealand in December last year, beating South Africa 2-0 in South Africa earlier this year, and most recently drawing a Test series 1-1 at home against New Zealand.

"We played really good cricket against Pakistan in Dubai [in the UAE, in 2017] and that confidence helps me to motivate myself in this series," Karunaratne said. "Most of the guys are travelling for the first time to Pakistan and playing in Rawalpindi, it's not easy. It's a good pacy wicket. We have a few plans for each player, and we try to stick to the basics and do the right things at the right time, and get maximum out of the conditions as well."

Sri Lanka might be away from home, but they have Pakistan's former coach Mickey Arthur in their dressing room. "It's a positive thing for us. It's a big advantage for us," Karunaratne said. "Mickey was very close to the Pakistan team for the last three years, he knows each and everyone closely, even the batters and bowlers, and how the team is going to get prepared. But whatever we get we have to do the things right.

"This is the same side we are playing after Mahela [Jayawardene] and Sanga [Kumar Sangakkara], it's been four years now. We are an experienced side, Angelo, Chandimal, myself, [Lahiru] Thirimanne… lots of senior players are here, we want to play good cricket here, competitive cricket. Pakistan is a good side, they have done well in their own conditions, so we will try to play good competitive cricket."

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