Stumps India 174 for 3 (Kohli 59*, Rahane 23*) lead Bangladesh 106 (Shadman 29, Ishant 5-22) by 68 runs

More legends watched live than Bangladesh scored runs. Two men went down with concussions. Ishant Sharma took his first home five-for in 12 years. Only the fourth time that fast bowlers took all ten for India in India. Wriddhiman Saha gracefully overcame all the late movement and apparent visibility issues. Cheteshwar Pujara and Virat Kohli then scored fifties to entertain the night-time crowd. Close to 50, 000 spectators turned up at Eden Gardens.

The first day of day-night Test cricket in India was unlike anything India had seen but eventually good bowling and good batting brought results with India needing just 57.1 overs to bowl Bangladesh out and then overhaul their woeful total of 106.

So poor was Bangladesh's planning for this tour that when a Mohammed Shami bouncer hit Liton Das, the only batsman who looked remotely comfortable, on the helmet, there was not a batsman in the squad that could replace him as the concussion substitute. Mehidy Hasan batted on as a substitute with an undertaking that he would not bowl to satisfy the like-for-like clause for concussion substitutes. That clause wasn't much of an issue when Nayeem Hasan was sconed by Shami: he was replaced by Taijul Islam, another spinner.

If anything, Bangladesh's batting had even less to recommend them by. And while Shami was landing physical blows, for a change Ishant was taking care of softened-up batsmen. Ishant did a substantial part of the softening-up himself through lovely Test-match bowling. He drew rewards through the legcutter-like delivery that he had unleashed during the Indore Test: four of his wickets came with deliveries that left right-hand batsmen or moved in towards the left-hand ones.

There were times, especially in the first half-hour, when it seemed the pink ball wasn't going to do much, but there were others when it went off the seam outrageously. India had to wait till the seventh over to get their first success, but that remained the longest partnership of the innings. It was the new Ishant meeting the vintage one when it ended. Going around the wicket, he went past the outside edge three times before trapping Imrul Kayes with the ball that moved back in, past the inside edge but at an angle small enough for the ball to be hitting him in line and also not missing the leg stump. Ishant always moved it away, but this was his new-found toy that brought him this wicket.

Rohit Sharma then dove in front of first slip to pull off a blinder to send back Mominul Haque, but this was a false start for visibility concerns around the pink ball. Both Mohammad Mithun and Mushfiqur Rahim were late on the ball in their dismissals. Umesh Yadav snuck one past Mithun's inside edge, and Rahim played Shami on. The zing bails and stumps lit up pink.

Not only were the batsmen late on the ball, but it was also now moving outrageously, especially after passing the stumps, almost as if in England. Saha, though, remained flawless, moving even later than usual to track that movement. What will make the highlights reel, though, is his one-handed catch diving in front of first slip to send Mahmudullah back. Not only did he take the ball, but he also made sure his glove gilded along the ground instead of bouncing into it, which can make the ball pop out on impact. It was 60 for 6, but it wasn't even the lowest point of Bangladesh's day.

Shami now started to bowl dangerous bouncers. It was just before the middle session, the dreaded twilight zone when players have complained about the visibility of the pink ball. Liton was late on a hook, following which the physio gave him a concussion test that he apparently cleared. The next three balls he faced were 4, 1, 4, but he complained of unease again and had to walk off. The physio was still busy with Liton when Shami hit Nayeem too. The India physio had to come out and look after him. Nayeem batted through the innings but didn't take the field. It will raise questions about concussion protocols: it is important to get players off immediately and not risk a second hit in the time that they spent facing high-speed accurate bowling.

The tail was in no mood to get behind the line of the pink ball now, and Ishant made the most of it with legcutters aimed at the top of off. The 22 runs he conceded was the second-lowest for an India fast bowler for a five-wicket haul at home.

Lower in pace, lacking the accuracy, Bangladesh struggled to create any of the problems India did for Bangladesh. The dew would only make it more difficult for them. This was a time they would have hoped to be batting when they chose to bat first, but instead they were now primed for some punishment.

Yet there was a little bit in it for them: Mayank Agarwal edged when pushing at a wide one, and Rohit padded up to one that seamed back in. Pujara and Kohli were alert, though, and it didn't help Bangladesh that their cover fielder - mostly Mahmudullah - was ordinary throughout the evening. There were enough loose balls on offer for both batsmen to keep scoring at a fair clip. Pujara, though, got one that kicked at him to make it four straight fifties without a century. Kohli, who became the fastest man to 5000 runs as captain, played some delightful drives in his unbeaten half-century and looked set for a century.

The College Football Playoff selection committee's top seven teams remained the same in its third ranking of the season, but there's always something to debate.

(Minnesota fans would like to know why Penn State is ranked ahead of the Golden Gophers in spite of a head-to-head victory and the same 9-1 record. Fair question.)

It's hardly the only discussion, though, still swirling around the 13 committee members as the season dwindles down to just three more weeks. There's still plenty of time for the playoff picture to change -- possibly even drastically -- between Saturday's Week 13 games and Selection Day on Dec. 8.

Until then, there are six possible outcomes -- hardly outlandish scenarios -- that are currently creating the biggest debates, and while the selection committee doesn't even have the answers yet, here are some early predictions as to how they might play out:

1. Would the committee choose an 11-1 Alabama or a one-loss Oregon that wins the Pac-12?
Early prediction: Oregon.
Here's why: There is written protocol to be followed, and Oregon would likely win the tiebreakers, which include strength of schedule and conference championship games.

Although Alabama (currently ranked fifth) has finished in the top four without winning its division before, it was also an anomaly, as 17 of the past 20 semifinalists have been conference champions. The committee would have to agree that Alabama is "unequivocally" one of the four best teams in the country with backup quarterback Mac Jones. That will be difficult to prove against Western Carolina or a three-loss Auburn team. It is important, though, that Auburn is a common opponent: It's a tiebreaker the Ducks (ranked sixth) would lose because they lost in their season opener to the Tigers. It's probably not enough to outweigh Oregon's conference title in the end, though, or a victory against a top-10 Utah team in the Pac-12 championship game.

For now, it's the losses that are separating the two in the eyes of the committee.

"The committee spent a lot of time talking about Alabama and Oregon," committee chairman Rob Mullens said Tuesday. "Members talked about how dominant Alabama has been all season. They also said Oregon is explosive and they were impressed by Oregon's quarterback, but Oregon's only loss came to No. 15 Auburn at a neutral site, while Alabama's only loss was to No. 1 LSU."

Alabama has defeated only one Power 5 opponent with a winning record (7-3 Texas A&M) to this point, and Auburn would make two. Alabama lost to the only other ranked opponent it faced: LSU. Oregon's strength of schedule was helped a bit this week because USC was ranked No. 23. The Ducks beat the Trojans on the road, and they would also have a top-10 win against Utah in the conference title game.

This is all assuming LSU runs the table and beats Georgia to win the SEC title, opening up the fourth spot. (LSU would clinch the West this week with a victory over 2-8 Arkansas.)

2. Would Minnesota get in as a one-loss Big Ten champion, or would brand-name bias be a factor?

Early prediction: Gophers would be in.
Here's why: Minnesota's three ranked wins -- against Penn State, Wisconsin and Ohio State -- would arguably be better than any other contender's résumé.

A wooden coat rack outside the door of Selection Central holds a collection of white Nike golf hats assigned to each committee member, with his or her name in black letters. It's a tradition meant to remind everyone to "check their hats at the door." The committee members are not allowed to wear any school-issued clothes or logos during the meetings, and the so-called "brand name" isn't supposed to matter, but it's impossible to know what each individual is thinking. The conspiracy theories will always float among fans, and there will always be doubts about a process that happens entirely behind closed doors.

What Minnesota would have done, though, is in plain sight -- and would be impossible to ignore.

3. Does No. 7 Utah have as good of a chance as Oregon to get in if it wins the Pac-12?
Early prediction: No, but that doesn't mean it won't get in -- it just can't make as strong of an argument.
Here's why: The loss to USC, coupled with a nonconference schedule that included BYU (6-4), Northern Illinois (4-7), and Idaho State (3-8), will create a weaker case for the Utes.

"I think the USC thing was probably [what] got the most discussion when they analyzed those two [Utah and Oregon]," CFP executive director Bill Hancock said Tuesday. "Oregon obviously defeated USC handily, and Utah lost. And Oregon's résumé, including the loss to a good Auburn team in the last seconds of the game, and Utah really doesn't have anything like that. So that was the difference."

Utah would certainly be considered as a one-loss Pac-12 champion, and would still be in a better position than the Big 12 champion, based on the selection committee's first three rankings. The opportunity to punctuate its résumé with a victory against a top-10 Oregon team would further boost its case, but it would also depend on what team it was being compared with. Alabama's loss to LSU wouldn't be as damaging as Utah's loss to USC, but the Crimson Tide also wouldn't have a top-10 win or conference title. It would also be tough for Utah to unseat No. 2 Ohio State if the Buckeyes finish with one loss.

4. Is the Big 12 really done?
Early prediction: Yes.
Here's why: If beating undefeated Baylor on the road wasn't enough to give the No. 9 Sooners a significant boost during the regular season, why would beating a one-loss, No. 14 Baylor in the Big 12 title game be worth much more?

Similarly, if Baylor were to beat Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship, it probably wouldn't be enough for the Bears to jump 10 spots into the top four. Based on Baylor's inability to crack the top 10, it's clear the Bears' schedule -- which included wins against Rice, Stephen F. Austin and UTSA -- is part of what's holding them back.

"We just look at all the games, and when you look at Baylor's three nonconference opponents, they have a combined seven wins," Mullens said.

Oklahoma remains the Big 12's best hope at a semifinal spot, but it's going to need some chaos to go along with a conference title.

5. If Ohio State loses Saturday, would it still finish in the top four?
Early prediction: Yes.
Here's why: Ohio State is just that good, and the committee has held Penn State in high enough regard all season that it wouldn't be a bad loss if the Buckeyes fall at home to the Nittany Lions. Assuming in this scenario that Penn State goes on to win the Big Ten, PSU would earn the No. 3 spot behind the SEC champ and Clemson, and Ohio State would be No. 4.

It would also wind up being a better loss than Oregon's defeat to Auburn, assuming the Tigers finish with four losses.

"Ohio State is strong on both sides of the ball," Mullens said Tuesday. "They've made a statement all year long."

The difference between Alabama and Ohio State as potential one-loss teams that didn't win their divisions starts with the fact that Ohio State has been ranked higher all season. Barring an unexpected extraordinary performance by Alabama backup quarterback Mac Jones over the next two games, the Buckeyes would also have the edge at quarterback in Justin Fields, and their defense has been more consistently dominant. Ohio State is beating its opponents by an average of 41 points per game, while the defense leads the nation in holding opponents to 9.8 points per game.

"We certainly do not incent margin of victory," Mullens said, "but we understand those were all convincing wins for Ohio State."

6. If Georgia loses to Texas A&M on Saturday, but the Dawgs win the SEC, are they a top-four team?
Early prediction: An unconvincing yes.
Here's why: Georgia would have two losses to unranked teams, in South Carolina and Texas A&M, but it would have impressive victories in this scenario against Notre Dame, Florida, Auburn and LSU. What matters more to the committee is difficult to decipher because the group has emphasized good wins but also justified some of its rankings based on some losses being worse than others.

What we know is this: The committee has rewarded Georgia so far for its good wins more than it has penalized the Bulldogs for a home loss to a dreadful Gamecocks team. If the group is consistent in that application, there's no reason to think a win over LSU and an SEC title couldn't outweigh another bad loss. It would be the first time a two-loss team finished in the top four.

James Franklin's Vanderbilt Commodores seemed to relish the underdog role. In Franklin's three years as head coach in Nashville, Vanderbilt was listed as an underdog 18 times, covered 11 times and won straight up six times. The Commodores were seven-point underdogs when they won at Missouri in 2012 and beat Georgia at home in 2013. They were 10.5-point 'dogs at Florida -- where they hadn't won in nearly seven decades -- late in 2013. They won 34-17.

Central to Vandy's underdog exploits was the simple ability to pounce. Whatever mistakes the Dores were granted -- special-teams miscues, turnovers, whatever -- they maximized. "Be opportunistic" isn't as reliable a winning strategy as "Be supremely talented and efficient," but it can make up a lot of ground.

The underdog vibe hasn't been quite as strong since Franklin left for Penn State in 2014. His Nittany Lions have been 'dogs just 19 times in nearly twice as many games, and while they've won as underdogs five times, they've only done so once when they were projected to lose by more than 2.5 points.

That one win, however, came against Ohio State in 2016. They were 19-point 'dogs.

Despite the fact that the 2016 game was in Happy Valley, not Columbus, it's not hard to draw reference to that game right now being that, despite their top-10 status, the No. 8 Nittany Lions are currently 17.5-point underdogs to one of the most statistically incredible Ohio State teams on record.

How Ohio State became Ohio State! again

Earlier this week, I wrote about how the No. 2 Buckeyes' performance to date has mirrored some of the most renowned teams in recent college football history -- 1995 Nebraska and 2001 Miami, to name two. Ohio State nearly is without proven weakness. Since this performance is coming from a team that has won the national title and earned multiple College Football Playoff bids in the past five seasons, it momentarily makes sense. Ohio State is one of the nation's elite recruiters and power programs. Of course the Buckeyes are this good, right?

It's easy to forget, however, how out of sorts the Buckeyes seemed at times last year. The defense, beset by breakdowns and big-play issues, ranked a wholly mortal 26th in defensive SP+. The offense featured one of the most efficient passing games in the country, but the run game was glitchier than normal, and a lot of the pieces of that great passing attack -- including quarterback Dwayne Haskins and wide receivers Parris Campbell, Johnnie Dixon and Terry McLaurin -- are gone. So is Urban Meyer, who had maybe enjoyed a more concentrated run of success than any head coach in school history.

While it was obvious the Buckeyes were going to be good in 2019, there was reason to think they might not play a serious role in the national title race. The offseason was filled with "This is Michigan's year!" takes, after all, and the Buckeyes were ranked in the teens in the preseason FPI projections.

It was obvious from nearly the opening snap of the season, however, that last year's issues had been alleviated. The addition of blue-chip quarterback and Georgia transfer Justin Fields meant the act of replacing Haskins wasn't going to be particularly fraught, and veteran wideouts K.J. Hill, Binjimen Victor and Austin Mack assured that the continuity in the receiving corps was still high. Some new blood solidified an offensive line that has given star back J.K. Dobbins all the assistance he needs.

Ohio State's 2019 offense is beautiful and interchangeable. Fields can run but hasn't had to much; Dobbins and backup Master Teague III have combined for 2,033 yards and 17 touchdowns; and the receiving corps features three go-to guys in Hill, Victor and sophomore Chris Olave, plus three more wideouts with at least 100 receiving yards. (Dobbins and tight ends Jeremy Ruckert and Luke Farrell also have over 100 receiving yards.) All of these wideouts are capable of going deep or catching short, quick passes, and all have been asked to do both. The result: Ohio State is first in rushing SP+, sixth in passing SP+, fourth in standard downs SP+ and third in passing downs SP+. Ridiculous.

The defense has been the surprise, however. New co-coordinators Jeff Hafley (an NFL position coach for the previous seven years) and Greg Mattison (a veteran line coach and cagey old hand) have been able to build a friendly structure for the loads of blue-chippers they inherited. And a lot of the freshmen and sophomores who struggled with glitches and missed tackles last year are now far more experienced and sound sophomores and juniors. The Buckeyes rank third in marginal explosiveness allowed and are giving up just 2.4 gains per game of 20-plus yards (last year: 4.8).

It appears Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day has thus far bridged the gap between continuity and change perfectly. The offensive staff has remained about the same and has figured out how to get a few key new pieces rolling. The defensive staff, which featured far more turnover, has shored up previous weaknesses in a veteran unit. Sprinkle in an absurd breakout performance from defensive end Chase Young (13.5 sacks, 14 run stuffs, five forced fumbles) and -- poof -- you have the best team in the country.

Lessons from 2016

Franklin has made it no secret that he uses Ohio State as something of a measuring stick for his program. After last year's gut-wrenching, one-point home loss to the Buckeyes (their second defeat in a row to OSU by a single point), he went into a noteworthy soliloquy after the game about the difference between great and elite programs.

"We've gone from an average football team to a good football team to a great football team, but we're not an elite team yet," he told media. "The work that it's going to take to get to an elite program is going to be just as hard as the ground and the distance that we've already traveled to get there."

The two losses were both heartbreakers, but they were even more painful considering the Nittany Lions had, at least briefly, cleared the Buckeyes hurdle earlier in his tenure.

The 2016 victory was a launchpad of sorts, vaulting the Lions into a Big Ten competition they would eventually win. And they followed a nearly perfect upset script to get there.

Win the big-play battle. PSU's offense was rendered inefficient by a strong Ohio State defense and managed just a 30% success rate for the game. (The national success rate average in 2016 was 42%.) But the Lions rendered OSU just as inefficient (29%) and gashed the Buckeyes with big plays when they got the chance.

PSU's first touchdown came on a 20-yard strike to Chris Godwin and was set up by a 34-yarder to DaeSean Hamilton. The second TD was set up by a 35-yard pass to Saeed Blacknall. In all, PSU logged six gains of 20-plus yards to OSU's four. It didn't matter that, while those six plays gained 179 yards, their other 54 gained 97. They bundled their big plays to maximum effect.

Create negative plays. Havoc plays are one hell of an equalizer, and PSU's 11 tackles for loss played a big role in keeping Ohio State in third-and-longs -- and out of the end zone. The Buckeyes created only six TFLs of their own.

Special-teams explosions. Ohio State created the first big special-teams breaks of the game, blocking an early PSU field goal attempt and happily taking advantage of a mishandled punt snap to score on a safety late in the third quarter. PSU made the biggest mark with under five minutes left, though, when Marcus Allen blocked a field goal attempt and Grant Haley took it 60 yards for the go-ahead score. Special teams cost PSU five points early, then gave PSU seven points late.

This isn't the script for every upset the planet has ever seen (typically turnovers are more involved), but based on PSU's own strengths, it probably is the most likely upset path this time around. The Nittany Lions are sixth in marginal explosiveness, so they clearly can make big plays. They're 12th in defensive havoc rate (total tackles for loss, passes defensed and forced fumbles divided by total plays), so they are capable of creating negative plays. They're ninth in Special Teams SP+, so theoretically they could take advantage of whatever breaks they get there (though Ohio State is a not-terrible 17th).

Still, this is an easier script to describe than execute against a team like Ohio State.

Justin Fields does take sacks, though

What's the most damaging type of tackle for loss from a yardage perspective? A sack. What has a decent correlation to overall forced fumbles? A sack. What is Fields' lone weakness to date as Ohio State's QB? Taking sacks.

Ohio State ranks 86th in sack rate allowed, 96th on passing downs and 117th on blitz downs (which I define as second-and-super-long or third-and-5 or more). Fields has been so natural in his new offense, and his receivers are so frequently open, that he rarely has to go to Plan B, and he takes a little too much time switching gears. It has been this way all season -- it was the only improvement I could find for them to make in October -- and hasn't really changed.

This and PSU's ability to force negative run plays -- the Nittany Lions are stuffing 27% of non-sack rushes at or behind the line, fifth in the country -- represent by far the Nittany Lions' biggest opportunity. As good as Ohio State's offense has been, and as efficient as it will be even on Saturday, negative plays are reliable drive killers.

• Drives that feature zero run stuffs or sacks: 2.72 points per possession in FBS in 2019
• Drives that feature one stuff or sack: 1.66
• Drives that feature two or more: 1.50

This trend is multiplied for Ohio State this year:

• Ohio State drives that feature zero stuffs or sacks: 5.03 points per possession
• Drives that feature one stuff or sack: 2.71
• Drives that feature two or more: 0.89

Negative plays lead to passing downs, and passing downs lead to the end of drives. That's mostly true even for otherworldly offenses.

What has to happen vs. what is most likely to happen

For Penn State to win, it appears that the Nittany Lions will have to lean heavily on the 2016 script.

1. Take advantage of whatever big-play chances they give you. We're still waiting to find out whether PSU receiver KJ Hamler will play on Saturday after suffering a head/neck injury against Indiana last week. It would obviously help if he were ready. The 5-foot-9 junior is one of the most dangerous receivers in the country, averaging 17.2 yards per catch with an efficient 53% success rate. Still, the Lions have Hamler clone Jahan Dotson (18.7 yards per catch, 56% success rate) and tight ends Pat Freiermuth and Nick Bowers (combined: 40 catches, mostly from Freiermuth, 14.6 yards per catch, 61% success rate). There are a lot of explosive playmakers at quarterback Sean Clifford's disposal.

These guys (Hamler in particular) can get open against even the best secondary. Clifford will be harangued and hurried for most of Saturday, but when he gets a chance to throw downfield, and one of these receivers gets open, it has to result in an explosive play.

To that same end, running back Journey Brown is probably going to find the going tough and inefficient against this sturdy Ohio State front, but he still might get a chance or two at something big. He simply has to take advantage.

2. Attack, attack, attack. Opponents sack Fields 7.3% of the time and stuff Ohio State runs 12% of the time. PSU needs those numbers to be at least 12% and 18%, respectively. Negative plays are just about the only theoretical advantage PSU has, and Ohio State does not respond well when it suffers negative plays. These two categories have to be big wins for the Nittany Lions, especially considering the correlation between passing-downs pass attempts and interceptions as well as the correlation between sacks and fumbles.

3. Create at least one special-teams explosion. OSU's special-teams unit is fine, but Penn State's is top-10. Be it a blocked kick or a big return from Hamler, something big needs to happen here. PSU punter Blake Gillikin also needs to outdo counterpart Drue Chrisman, buying back some field position for what will probably be an inefficient offense.

This is what has to happen for PSU. What will happen? Dobbins likely will enjoy enough run success that Fields won't be in too many awkward downs and distances -- which likely will set up some downfield shots such as the ones Minnesota and Indiana have both hurt Penn State with in recent weeks -- and Clifford will end up facing far more pass pressure than Fields. (That's doubly true with Young back from a two-game suspension.) Ohio State will simply leverage PSU behind schedule, tilt the field and wait.

SP+ projects a closer game than Las Vegas does -- something in the neighborhood of a 34-20 Buckeyes win.

Franklin has done a fabulous job of building PSU's talent levels and depth; and while he only has beaten Ohio State once, he also is only a couple of plays from a three-game winning streak against the Buckeyes. Still, this is a different Ohio State team, and this game will probably see a different, far less close, result.

Week 13 playlist

Here are 10 games -- at least one from each weekend time slot -- you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both an information and entertainment perspective.

All times Eastern

Friday

Colorado State at Wyoming (9:30 p.m., ESPN2). OK, yes, this is basically the only game in this window, but it's a good opportunity to catch a Wyoming team that nearly took down both Boise State and Utah State in its past two games. Colorado State has improved over the past month too.

SP+ projection: UW 29, CSU 22

Early Saturday (besides Penn State-Ohio State)

Harvard at Yale (noon, ESPNU). The only thing better than The Game is The Game With Consequences. Yale still could snare the Ivy League title with a win and a Dartmouth loss to Brown. (Dartmouth won't be losing to Brown, but let's not worry about that right now.)

SP+ projection: Harvard 30, Yale 26

Saturday afternoon

Texas A&M at No. 4 Georgia (3:30 p.m., CBS). A&M has been playing awfully solid ball of late, treating mediocre SEC teams like straight bad ones. If UGA has taken its foot off the gas at all after locking up the SEC East title, this game could become a proverbial hornet's nest.

SP+ projection: UGA 32, A&M 19

Texas at No. 14 Baylor (3:30 p.m., FS1). Call it the Who Responds Better to Heartbreaking Disappointment Bowl. I guess that's too long a title, as both of these teams need a quick rebound after last-minute losses -- Baylor to keep its tiny national title hopes alive; Texas to keep a disappointing season from getting even worse.

SP+ projection: Baylor 35, Texas 26

No. 13 Michigan at Indiana (3:30 p.m., ESPN). The last time Indiana beat Michigan, current Wolverines coach Jim Harbaugh was a rookie with the Chicago Bears, and Indiana coach Tom Allen had not yet enrolled at Maranatha Baptist University. The 1987 season was a long time ago, is what I'm saying. This IU team is excellent, but Michigan is hot.

SP+ projection: UM 28, IU 25

UCLA at No. 23 USC (3:30 p.m., ABC). Clay Helton's super young Trojans have won four of five and risen back to 24th in SP+. A 9-4 finish is still a possibility. So too is Helton getting fired after a loss to UCLA. The Bruins have won three of four, making this a really hard, tense game to get a grasp on.

SP+ projection: USC 40, UCLA 22. SP+ seems to think it has a perfectly fine grasp on the game.

SMU at Navy (3:30 p.m., CBSSN). These teams need Memphis to lose again to have a shot at the AAC West title, but even without division consequences, this one should be tremendous. SMU has a shot at an 11-1 finish; and despite last week's disappointing performance against Notre Dame, Navy still has a shot at 10-2.

SP+ projection: Navy 34, SMU 29

Saturday evening

Be sure to flip over to CBSSN at 7 to check out the oddity of Miami and FIU playing at Marlins Park. But once you've taken that in, the two headliners are pretty obvious.

Oregon at Arizona State (7:30 p.m., ABC). Of your primary CFP contenders, SP+ is by far the least sold on Oregon. But the Ducks have surged offensively, averaging 41 points per game over their past five. Still, this is a long road trip, and ASU is sturdy enough to scare an Oregon squad that doesn't bring its A-game.

SP+ projection: Ducks 32, Sun Devils 22

TCU at No. 9 Oklahoma (8 p.m., Fox). OU has had to empty its bag of tricks over the past two weeks, needing a monstrous comeback to beat Baylor a week after needing a last-minute 2-point conversion stop to beat Iowa State. TCU isn't quite up to that standard but is good enough to shake a tired Sooners team given the chance.

SP+ projection: OU 41, TCU 22

Late Saturday

No. 20 Boise State at Utah State (10:30 p.m., CBSSN) and SDSU at Hawaii (11 p.m., Facebook Video). Call this a two-for-one, because I can't decide which to recommend, and you can watch them at the same time. The SDSU-Hawaii game on your laptop is a winner-take-all battle for the MWC West crown, and a USU upset of Boise would devolve the MWC Mountain race into a potential three-way tie.

SP+ projections: BSU 32, USU 23; SDSU 27, Hawaii 24

Let's get a helping of 10 NBA things before the holiday, including a closer look at Ja Morant:

1. Hello, Ja Morant

Morant is real. In Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. -- cut the fouls, big fella! -- the Grizzlies have two cornerstones. Brandon Clarke can defend all over the floor, and he is shooting 62% -- nailing 3s and glorious pogo stick floaters. The Grizz are the good kind of bad: young, fun, fearless.

It starts with Morant, who is absolutely electric with the ball. When he gets a head of steam, he can finish right through bigger defenders:

The league is awash in water bug point guards who get inside the foul line at will. What separates the greats is the ability to explode through traffic to the rim instead of settling for floaters. Morant has that extra gear:

Morant is shifty in tight spaces. He has a knack for changing speed and direction with an abruptness that confuses defenders. He already is smart about weaponizing his speed as an off-ball cutter:

Teams are going under picks and daring Morant to shoot 3s. He is accepting some of those invitations and is 12-of-29 from deep -- great early signs.

Like almost every rookie point guard, Morant has a long way to go on defense. He has the tools and grit to grow into a plus on that end. In his third NBA game, Morant swatted Kyrie Irving's game-winning attempt at the buzzer and talked all sorts of trash. He looks like a star in every sense.

2. Utah getting a little pull-up-y

The Jazz rank a shocking 23rd in points per possession, and the fundamentals of their offense have changed in ways that go against what Quin Snyder values. Utah ranks 20th in the percentage of shot attempts that come from 3-point range and 16th in the share from around the basket, per Cleaning The Glass data.

That leaves a lot of midrange shots and too many pull-ups -- especially floaters from Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell. Midrangers comprise half of Mitchell's attempts, by far the highest rate of his career.

Overall, Utah is jacking 25.6 pull-ups per game, seventh overall, and up from a league-low 19.1 last season. They have the shot profile they try to foist onto opponents. They also are throwing almost 40 fewer passes per game as compared to last season.

Some of that might be by design. In ditching Derrick Favors for Bojan Bogdanovic -- and acquiring Conley -- Utah went all-in on spread pick-and-roll. They don't have to spend as much time passing and cutting to get the defense off-kilter before going into the main action. They can skip the foreplay.

Opponents are cagier defending Rudy Gobert's rim-running. Some teams appear to be sending help defenders into the lane a beat later than in prior seasons -- and having those guys crash hard when they finally go. The gambit appears to be throwing off Utah's ball handlers. Outside shooters aren't coming open as early. The lob to Gobert is there, and then it isn't. He is averaging 3.9 dunk attempts per 100 possessions, down from 6.2 last season, per Second Spectrum data.

That has left Conley and Mitchell wandering with live dribbles before settling for floaters.

Time should solve a lot of this. Conley and his new teammates will learn each other's quirks, and Joe Ingles -- slumping early -- will get used to a new bench role. They are shooting horribly from midrange, and are probably due some good luck. Their two best lineups -- the starting five, and the same group with Ingles in place of Royce O'Neale -- are scoring well. Bogdanovic has been an easy fit. They have the league's stingiest defense.

But this is worth monitoring. Ditto for Utah's bench, which has been a disaster.

3. Devonte' Graham can pass too

There is a tendency to brand guys like Graham -- small at 6-foot-1 and an eager shooter -- as bench gunners, but Graham's play has been more subtle than that. He has looked the part of NBA starting point guard, with canny timing as a pick-and-roll distributor.

Graham has a good sense for when to slow down, pin his defender on his back, prod deeper and wait for the defense to expose something:

He also knows when to get off of it early -- when a help defender is leaning away from a corner shooter:

Graham might be the season's happiest surprise, even if he's not surprised. After a strong practice late last season, Graham approached Charlotte coach James Borrego and declared, "I'm ready," Borrego recalls. Borrego installed him as Kemba Walker's backup. He showed enough to earn the same job behind Terry Rozier.

Graham spent the summer strengthening his legs so he could put more power into the off-the-bounce 3s that would make or break his career, Borrego says.

And then, boom. Graham is averaging 18 points and seven dimes per game, and he has hit 41% on 3s. Charlotte has scored 106 points per 100 possessions with Graham on the floor, and a pathetic 93 when he sits.

Last week, Borrego inserted Graham into the starting lineup in place of Dwayne Bacon. Graham is not giving up that spot anytime soon. He has been better than Rozier (by a lot) and everyone else on Charlotte's roster. The next step is getting more comfortable finishing in the paint, but Graham has arrived.

4. He's got Bam Hands!

Has Bam Adebayo been Miami's best player? Its most indispensable? Both?

Adebayo is averaging 13.8 points, 10.2 rebounds. 4.5 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.4 blocks per game. Only six players have cleared the 13.5/10/4/1.5/1.4 barriers in the same season: Kevin Garnett, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Chris Webber, Karl Malone, David Robinson and Charles Barkley. They accomplished that feat over eight combined seasons. (Giannis Antetokounmpo is on pace to the join the same club.)

Did I do some cherry picking there? Sure. Do I care? No. Dude is having an awesome season, doing a bit of everything on offense: bringing the ball up and dishing dimes; rim-running for thunder dunks; hitting half his shots from floater/short jumper range; and serving as a release valve for Miami's ball handlers.

On defense, he can guard anyone. That often means defending stretchy power forwards so Meyers Leonard and Kelly Olynyk can stick with slower centers. Adebayo can switch onto point guards and hold his own against the apex predator wings (Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard) who rule today's game.

And Bam's hands. My god, his hands. Throw the ball into any crowd and Adebayo's coming out with it:

PJ Tucker -- not exactly a shrinking violet -- actually thought he would snatch this rebound:

When the Heat get Justise Winslow back, I'm curious to see how often Erik Spoelstra plays with Adebayo as the only traditional big. The downside of having him defend power forwards now is that he isn't around to protect the rim as he would be guarding centers. Lineups featuring Winslow, Adebayo, Jimmy Butler and two of the Goran Dragic/Kendrick Nunn/Tyler Herro/Duncan Robinson quartet could be fast and switchy.

5. Ersan Ilyasova, slippin'

I am a sucker for pick-and-pop big men who ambush defenses with occasional quick slips toward the basket. Ilyasova has been doing more of it while Milwaukee's centers -- the Lopez twins -- spot up and clear the lane:

Dirk Nowitzki also was an expert at this. The idea is simple: When these guys set screens, they know their defenders are likely to lunge at ball handlers instead of waiting in the paint; dropping back concedes open pick-and-pop 3s.

That scheme does not account for Ilyasova rolling to the rim. A quick thread-the-needle pass leads him into a 4-on-3.

Brook Lopez also reacquaints himself with the paint now and then on slips, slow-motion pump-and-go drives and post-ups against mismatches. Variety is healthy for the Bucks. They'll need it facing postseason defenses that can offer at least some resistance against Antetokounmpo.

But those same defenses are more likely to switch actions like this one. That is the essence of playoff basketball: two teams adjusting and countering until one wins or they reach a strategic stalemate -- leaving superstars to settle the matter.

6. Foot-on-the-line maestros

We need analytics for this, but I'd bet good money Dillon Brooks and Danilo Gallinari rank in the top five in foot-on-the-line 2s -- aka the dumbest shot in basketball, aka The Brandon Knight -- and that Gallinari is one of the active career leaders.

(Yes, the broadcast initially counted that as a 3. They corrected it a few seconds later.)

This isn't some great crime. Brooks and Gallinari are decent midrange shooters.

Gallinari is having another rock-solid all-around season, though his attempts at the rim have dipped to an alarming level -- about 20% of all shots, in the fifth percentile for his position, per Cleaning The Glass.

But he is scorching from everywhere, herky-jerky-ing his way into his usual bundle of free throws and competing on defense. Gallinari is quietly setting himself up to be one of this summer's premiere free agents. He is more plug-and-play than some starrier names. Would you rather have Gallinari or DeMar DeRozan?

Brooks is renewed after a lost season. He is running more pick-and-roll, and he is a physical, crafty ball handler with a floater game and some passing chops. He also is a delightfully irritating defender -- one of the most foul-prone wings in the league, always getting under someone's skin.

7. The quiet greatness of Paul Millsap

It sounds weird to say about a four-time All-Star, but Millsap might be the most underappreciated really good player of the past 10 years. He does whatever Denver needs in the moment. He senses when the Nuggets could use a jolt of energy and finds a way to provide it: bumping three dudes out of the way for an offensive rebound; prying the rock from some enemy ball handler; revving up the offense with an extra pass or an impromptu bone-crunching screen in semi-transition.

I tap my fingers together like Mr. Burns when any Denver opponent downsizes and puts a wing or small-ball power forward on Millsap. He goes into old-school beast mode. He just bulldozes those suckers. He does not stop until the other team relents and reinserts a traditional big man to guard him. Denver has scored 1.15 points per possession anytime Millsap shoots from the post or kicks to someone who fires right away -- one of the best marks in the league, per Second Spectrum.

He also is shooting 50% from deep. That won't last, but Denver is a different team if Millsap can hit enough open 3s.

Millsap has probably lost a quarter-step on defense, but he still is a bulwark: physical, always anticipating, forever in the right place at the right time with his magnet hands.

He is the common denominator in most of Denver's best defensive lineups. The Nuggets have allowed 96 points per 100 possessions with Millsap on the court, a number that balloons to 107 when he sits.

The Nuggets and Millsap could not agree on an extension before the season. Denver acquired Jerami Grant as Millsap's potential heir apparent. Grant is off to a slow start. Millsap keeps on trucking. His free agency looms as a more fraught subplot than the Nuggets might have expected.

8. Moe Wagner's sneaky first step

Opponents expect Wagner to shoot 3s, set pointy-elbowed picks and yell a lot. I'm not sure they expected this:

A few times per game, Wagner will face up and roast some unsuspecting galoot. Wagner is averaging 12.8 points per game in just over 19 minutes, which translates to almost 24 per 36 minutes. He is shooting 52% from deep and 69% on 2s. Moe freaking Wagner leads the entire NBA in true shooting percentage. The Wizards constructed a nice center rotation -- Thomas Bryant and Wagner -- from Lakers castoffs. Whoops.

(The Lakers traded Wagner to unlock max cap space after whatever the hell happened in the Anthony Davis trade. They used that space on Danny Green, Quinn Cook, DeMarcus Cousins, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and JaVale McGee. Fair enough. They straight up waived Bryant.)

Wagner is moving his feet on defense and snagging lots of boards. Opponents have hit just 42% of shots at the rim with Wagner nearby, fifth lowest (!) among 58 players who challenge at least four such shots per game.

The Wizards have outscored opponents by 14 points per 100 possessions with Wagner on the floor -- and lost non-Wagner minutes by almost 11 points per 100 possessions. That 25-point differential is bananas.

Wagner might play more if he could stop fouling everyone in his vicinity. Big fella is racking up 7.5 fouls per 36 minutes, a hack rate only 14 players have ever hit over a full season. One upside of seeking contact: Wagner leads the league in charges drawn.

Wagner might also be the leagues' cheeriest teammate. Basket mics constantly pick him up shouting encouragement at teammates. I would purchase a Moe Wagner Encouragement app that reinforced positive life behaviors: "You are killing it on the treadmill, Zach! Great job ordering salad instead of fries! You're taking a lot of steps today, Zach! Keep it up!"

9. Can we get T.J. Warren a post game?

Doesn't it feel like Warren should have a post game? He is a big-ish wing. He is old school, with intricate footwork and a silky teardrop.

Alas, he does not have one. When Warren backs down undersized defenders, the results look like this:

Over the past two seasons, Warren has posted up about once per 100 possessions, according to Second Spectrum. His teams have scored around 0.7 points per possession anytime Warren shoots out of the post or passes to a teammate who launches. That ranks among the dozen or so worst such figures in the league.

Warren isn't a physical player. A bruising post game isn't in his nature. But it is a weapon he should have, considering his positional versatility and the amount of switching defenses do now.

10. Journeymen, stabilizing the Kings

Sacramento has had the league's most baffling start. They entered with semi-reasonable expectations of a .500-ish season, then promptly fell into a very Kingsy 0-5 start. They're 6-2 since, with the league's third-best offense in that stretch and a slightly above-average defense. Maybe the India trip really was that draining.

There are sexier variables than Cory Joseph and Richaun Holmes behind this run. The Kings are shooting the heck out of it. Buddy Hield remembered he is Buddy Hield, and the Serbian Slingers -- Nemanja Bjelica and Bogdan Bogdanovic, another free agent in line for a huge raise -- are on fire.

But don't sleep on Joseph and Holmes bookending what had been a leaky defense. Joseph is shooting horribly. He is never going to live up to his contract -- a ridiculous deal for a backup point guard. But he is feisty on defense, and he doesn't make mistakes. Joseph even slid over to hound Devin Booker down the stretch of the Kings' win over Phoenix on Tuesday.

I'm a De'Aaron Fox true believer, but Fox's early-season defense was disappointing: He was flat-footed, upright in his stance, not as engaged as he needed to be. Joseph stabilized the point of attack.

Holmes helped. Dewayne Dedmon, Sacramento's opening night starting center, was a little frenetic on that end. Holmes has been more diligent staying within Sacramento's scheme and using his speed and leaping ability to disrupt pick-and-rolls. Opponents are shooting only 53.8% around the basket with Holmes nearby, a Gobertian number, per NBA.com data. He is rebounding a career-best level. Behemoths can overpower Holmes, but he is grinding on defense.

On offense, he is one of the league's most frequent screen-setters and rim-runners -- a dangerous and violent lob threat who sucks in defenders and opens up things for Sacramento's shooters. The Kings are plus-7 points per 100 possessions with Holmes on the floor, and minus-15 (not a typo) when he sits. Yowza.

Joseph and Holmes are playing more than they really should be. This happens. Backups earn starting spots and excel for a while, and then the team comes back to earth as the sample size expands and the raw talent deficit takes hold. The Kings need Fox and Marvin Bagley III to hit their ceiling, though it will be interesting to see how Luke Walton reintegrates Bagley at both center and power forward.

But credit the Kings -- and Joseph and Holmes -- for salvaging their season.

Midway through the 2019 season, a member of the New York Yankees organization assessed the laundry list of injured players, providing updates on rehabilitation schedules, the latest baseball activities for those ailing, and possible timelines for their respective returns to the lineup.

When I brought up Jacoby Ellsbury, the response was an incredulous stare.

As in: Really? There was no expectation he would play this year, and in the end, Ellsbury didn't play much for the Yankees over the course of his seven-year, $153 million contract before his release this week. Ellsbury competed in 520 games over four seasons. He did not play in any games for the Yankees in 2018 or 2019 and won't in 2020, the last year of the contract.

He scored 273 runs, hit 39 homers, stole 102 bases and generated 8.1 fWAR in his time with the Yankees. Mike Trout and Alex Bregman had more fWAR than that in 2019 alone.

That value deficit is why Ellsbury's deal will go down as one of the worst big-money contracts in baseball history. Using a Fangraphs search tool, Sarah Langs of MLB.com pegged the Ellsbury contract value at $63 million, so what the Yankees got in return was almost $100 million less in value. (According to the New York Post, the Yankees are filing a grievance to recoup some of the Ellsbury contract.)

What follows are some of the least productive free-agent contracts we've seen in baseball, among deals of at least $50 million.

Heptathlete and sprinter named athletes of the year by British Athletics Writers’ Association in London

World heptathlon champion Katarina Johnson-Thompson has been named as female athlete of the year in the annual awards organised by the British Athletics Writers’ Association (BAWA).

The Liverpudlian, who struck gold with a UK record in Doha in October, was among a number of leading lights from 2019 honoured at a luncheon at the Tower Hotel in London on Friday (Nov 22).

The 26-year-old, whose year also brought her pentathlon gold at the European Indoor Championships in Glasgow, was chosen in voting ahead of world 200m champion Dina Asher-Smith and European indoor 1500m and 3000m champion Laura Muir by members of BAWA to receive the Cliff Temple Trophy.

Gemili, who was fourth in the 200m at the World Championships before helping Great Britain and Northern Ireland to 4x100m silver, picked up the John Rodda Award for male athlete of the year.

He finished just ahead of marathon man Callum Hawkins, who finished fourth in Doha, in the voting with hammer thrower Nick Miller and past winner Mo Farah sharing third place.

The Jim Coote Memorial Award for junior male was given to Max Burgin, who set a British under-20 800m record aged 17. The Lilian Board Memorial Award for junior female went to Amy Hunt, who established a world under-18 200m record in July before winning the European under-20 title over the same distance in Boras.

A week after the conclusion of the World Para Athletics Championships in Dubai, Sophie Hahn was crowned female para athlete of the year for the second time following a double sprint gold which was secured with back-to-back world records in the T38 100m and 200m.

The male para athlete of the year prize went to Thomas Young, silver medallist in the T38 100m in Dubai where he broke the European record in his heat and again in the final.

The prestigious Ron Pickering Memorial Award for Services to Athletics was given to athletics coach Peter Stanley, who will retire next year after almost 40 years of helping British jumpers to the head of the sport, including world triple jump record-holder Jonathan Edwards, while presently serving as UK Athletics’ head of field and combined events.

The Vikki Orvice Inspiration Award, newly re-named in honour of The Sun’s much-respected correspondent who sadly died of cancer earlier this year, was presented to sprinter James Ellington for his battle back from serious injuries sustained in a motorbike accident in January 2017 to return to competition this summer.

The BAWA awards date back to 1963 – when Dorothy Hyman and Maurice Herriott were the inaugural athlete of the year winners – and this year’s function also saw a number of other awards presented by the British Milers’ Club. They included Paul Hayes receiving the Frank Horwill award for outstanding services to the BMC. Andrew Henderson was named BMC coach of the year. Phil O’Dell took a lifetime services to coaching prize. Isabelle Boffey and Max Burgin were named junior athletes of the year, while Laura Muir and Jake Wightman took the 2019 senior athletes of the year honours.

One "massive" team event, featuring both men and women, is the long-term goal as the new look Davis Cup Finals conclude in Madrid this weekend.

Eighteen teams have been competing for the title over just seven days, with Wednesday's matches not finishing until 04:04 GMT on Thursday morning.

A rival men's team competition will be staged in just six weeks' time, when the inaugural ATP Cup takes place in Australia.

"The calendar is probably the number one issue for everyone in tennis," according to Kelly Fairweather of the International Tennis Federation, which has licensed the Davis Cup to Gerard Pique's investment group Kosmos.

"It's not getting any easier by the addition of events. A year ago at the ATP Finals we had some of these discussions, so we're hoping to pick that up again. Wouldn't it be wonderful for tennis to have one massive team event?

"Sport is so competitive anyway. I don't think we should be really competing among ourselves."

The ITF will be encouraged by the comments Novak Djokovic made earlier in the week. The 16-time Grand Slam champion, who is president of the ATP Player Council, said he did not believe the Davis Cup and the ATP Cup could "coexist six weeks apart" in the long term.

"Obviously we have to be sensitive to all different parties," Fairweather said in an interview on BBC Radio 5 Live Sports Extra.

"But if you've got Novak saying that, that hopefully opens the door for a discussion with the ATP. From an ITF point of view, wouldn't it be fantastic to also have a joint men's and women's World Cup together? That would be sensational. It's an ambition."

The immediate future of the Davis Cup Finals, however, may be Madrid. The Spanish capital is keen to extend its two years as hosts, and Fairweather says the ITF is sympathetic to the idea of staying in Madrid for an extra year.

While the event remains just one week long, doubles matches may be shortened as they are on the ATP Tour. Deciding points at deuce, and a 'match tiebreak' rather than a third set, should mitigate to some extent a sequence of extremely late finishes.

Fairweather also revealed they expect to lose money for the first three years.

"I think if you look at the business plan, the fourth year is really where we as partners are hoping to see this turn into a profit making venture. There are areas in particular on the media rights side that have a huge amount of room for growth."

Kosmos is investing $80m (£63m) a year into the competition, which includes $20m in prize money and a $44m licence fee to the ITF.

An additional $45m a year has been earmarked to develop other formats, such as a mixed team competition and a winner takes all event.

"A winner takes all with a big pot of prize money [with a working title of the Majesty Cup], that's something that's under discussion," Fairweather added.

"We've just had expressions of interest from almost 10 cities that are keen to put on the Hopman Cup [the mixed team event traditionally staged in Australia in January - before the introduction of the ATP Cup]."

"Gerard [Pique] really wants to be innovative, he wants to really provide an incentive for the players to come and do something different, which is not week in week out on tour events.

"The mixed team event has a huge amount of potential, and that's something that we want to capitalise on."

LONDON – Leading Swiss private banking group Julius Baer has  announced its continued partnership with Formula E, extending their long-standing affiliation until the end of the 2022/23 season.

Julius Baer joined Formula E at the very beginning, announcing the partnership in advance of the firstE-Prix in Beijing around the Olympic Park and iconic Bird’s Nest stadium in 2014.

Over five-straight seasons, Julius Baer has activated at each event along with trackside branding and putting their name to Julius Baer pole position, with the fastest driver in qualifying receiving three bonus points.

“It is instrumental when building the foundations of a sport and growing a fan base for the future to forge successful long-lasting relationships with partners who believe in the brand and share the same values,” said Jamie Reigle, CEO of Formula E. That is why we are delighted to extend our partnership with Julius Baer for a further two seasons, until the end of the 2022/23 season. Julius Baer got behind Formula E’s vision from the beginning, even before turning a wheel in Beijing in the first season, and we very much look forward to building on our shared successes together.”

“We are excited to further extend our global partnership with Formula E, demonstrating our ongoing commitment and reliability as a trusted partner,” said Phillip Rickenbacher, CEO of Julius Baer. “Julius Baer played a significant role in the ground-breaking start of the series and we continue to support it now that it has successfully evolved into an indispensable championship. With its unique approach and mission to foster innovation towards more sustainable mobility, it reflects the spirit of the times and is attracting ever more interest worldwide.”

We're nearly two months into the 2019-20 NHL season, with a slew of trends emerging to either buy or sell. So, we gathered a panel of four of our NHL analysts to weigh in on whether they believe these early season statements. For this week, that includes:

• The Edmonton Oilers' top-scoring pair (Connor McDavid/Leon Draisaitl) will outscore the Boston Bruins' top duo (David Pastrnak/Brad Marchand).

• If the Calgary Flames miss the playoffs, it won't be because they didn't upgrade their goaltending enough in the offseason.

• At age 34, Alex Ovechkin will hit 50 goals for the ninth time in his career.

• The Chicago Blackhawks will make the playoffs.

• Cory Schneider is completely finished as a regular NHL goalie.

1. Edmonton's top-scoring pair (McDavid/Draisaitl) will outscore Boston's (Pastrnak/Marchand).

Greg Wyshynski, senior NHL writer: Insta-buy. McDavid and Draisaitl have a 14-point margin after Thursday night, a 53-point advantage over the past two seasons and, barring injury or an Oilers' collapse, are going to make life difficult for us Hart Trophy voters.

Dimitri Filipovic, hockey analytics writer: Buy. No team leans more heavily on its star players than the Oilers do on McDavid and Draisaitl, with each of them being responsible for north of 40% of the team's total goals scored thus far. They're also the only two forwards currently averaging over 22 minutes, and there's no reason to believe that's going to change any time soon. The Bruins might wind up being more efficient on a per minute basis, but sheerly based on the raw volume of opportunities, the Oilers' duo is a better bet to accumulate more total points.

Victoria Matiash, fantasy hockey analyst: Sell. But it will be close. Oppositions will readjust their approach in defending the Oilers' outlying top duo out of necessity as the months wear on, just as we saw teams eventually accustom their strategy in playing the Avalanche's No. 1 line last season. That will result in the gap narrowing between these two forward pairings before ultimately flipping in the Bruins' favor by spring.

Tim Kavanagh, NHL editor: Sell. McDavid and Draisaitl are on pace to win this by a wide margin (310 to 270), but they play in a division (3.14 goals against per game for non-Edmonton teams) and conference (3.02) that is more stingy than the Bruins (3.32 and 3.16 for non-Boston teams, respectively).

2. If the Flames miss the playoffs, it won't be because they didn't upgrade their goaltending enough in the offseason.

Wyshynski: Buy. Before Thursday night's blowout loss to St. Louis, the Flames had a team save percentage of .903 and David Rittich was on the positive side of goals-saved above average. It's not on him or Cam Talbot that the Flames are being routed at 5-on-5 after being third in the league at even strength last season.

Filipovic: Buy. Their goaltending isn't carrying them at the moment, but it's also hardly their biggest problem either. The duo of Rittich and Talbot is roughly in the middle of the pack in save percentage, and aside from disastrous performances by the latter in Vegas and by the former in St. Louis, they've given the Flames a chance to compete on most nights. The main concern in Calgary right now should be the fact that the Flames have gone from second to 28th in goals scored, with their shooting percentage completely going in the tank. It's been going for long enough now that it can't just be waved away, but it's also highly unlikely that someone as talented as Johnny Gaudreau carries a 7.8% personal shooting percentage and 6.7% on-ice shooting percentage all year long.

Matiash: Sell. The Flames will undoubtedly start scoring more. They're too talented to plod along like this for long. But there's no relying on that tandem, week in and week out, as the season wears on. And if Rittich and Talbot hit the skids simultaneously, which is hardly out of the question, it'll spell trouble.

Kavanagh: Sell. I believe the Flames will make the playoffs, but in the event that they don't, it will be squarely on the goaltending. Calgary is currently scoring more than a full goal per game less than 2018-19, and it's easy to see why: Of the team's top 10 scorers in 2018-19, only Elias Lindholm and Noah Hanifin have higher shooting percentages this season compared to last. I have faith these players will bounce back and the goals will come. On the other hand, Rittich is a known commodity, and I don't foresee some wild streak of dominance by him or Talbot.

3. At age 34, Ovechkin will hit 50 goals for the ninth time in his career.

Wyshynski: Buy. The Russian Machine never breaks, and the Capitals are fifth in the league in power-play opportunities, which means the Ovi spot remains open.

Filipovic: Buy. He's currently on pace for 51 goals, but unlike most of the other league leaders early on, his scoring binge isn't being fueled by an unsustainable shooting percentage. Just as impressive as the actual goal total is his ability to continually generate unparalleled shot volume. He's well on his way to a record 14th season with 300-plus shots on goal, and as long as he keeps putting the puck on net that frequently, he remains a good bet to flirt with 50 goals and the Rocket Richard Award.

Matiash: Buy. While others hammer on the math, I foresee Ovi simply willing it to happen, as long as he's close. By that, I mean we can probably expect fewer passing plays to John Carlson as the season winds down. There's no repeating the 49-goal total from two years ago. He either scores fewer than 45 or 50-plus.

Kavanagh: Buy. With 15 through 24 games, he's on pace for 51 this season, and he doesn't look a scintilla slower than his usually elite self (unlike certain NFL quarterbacks we've witnessed this season). And it remains true that even when everyone knows exactly where he'll set up on the power play, no team has been able to reliably suppress his scoring from his "office."

4. The Blackhawks will make the playoffs.

Wyshynski: Sell. Despite their improved goaltending this season, the Blackhawks aren't going to finish in the top three of the Central, and the Western Conference bubble is going to be an intensely competitive race. I respect the rebound, but they'll fall short.

Filipovic: Sell. The recent hot streak makes for a nice story, but they're playing well over their heads at the moment. At 5-on-5, they're currently 31st in shot share, 29th in high-danger chance share, and 29th in expected goal share. No team has a higher gap between their expected and actual goals thus far, and that's entirely due to the ridiculous goaltending they've received from Robin Lehner and Corey Crawford. But if the Hawks keep surrendering more shots and scoring chances against than opponents, those two will be able to hold the fort for only so long.

Matiash: Sell. I so want to buy here, but the rest of the Central strikes me as too tough. Aside from the Wild, all other six teams present as surefire to semi-legit contenders. If I'm siding with Dallas to make the postseason -- which I am -- it's near impossible to back the Blackhawks, as well. There aren't enough seats at the playoff table, even if both wild cards emerge from the division.

Kavanagh: Sell. The Blackhawks have become one of my favorite teams to watch. They have the NHL's highest combined shots-for/shots-against per game (67.0 through 21 games), it's fun to watch the development of Kirby Dach and the other youngsters -- remember, Alex DeBrincat is just 21 and Dylan Strome just 22 -- and it's impossible not to root for Lehner. But ... they're a year away from getting back in the tourney.

5. Schneider is completely finished as a regular NHL goalie.

Wyshynski: Buy. He has never recovered from his hip surgery at a time in the NHL when mobility in the crease is paramount, and I can't imagine what the market is for a 33-year-old with a minus-20.27 goals-saved below average over the past three seasons.

Filipovic: Buy. Unfortunately it's hard to see him ever regaining his form at this point, considering the 132-game sample we've seen from him over the past three-plus seasons. Since 2016, his .904 save percentage is 54th out of 62 goalies with at least 50 appearances, and of the goalies behind him, 25-year-old Joonas Korpisalo is the only one still playing in the league. Being 33 isn't as big of an issue for a goalie as it is at other positions, but when you combine it with his laundry list of ailments over the years, it adds up to work against him. The biggest shame is that it took him so long to get to the NHL considering how good he was early in his career, not really getting a shot as a workhorse starter until he was 29 because of the two legendary goalies that blocked his path on the Canucks and Devils.

Matiash: Sell. Admittedly a little sunny-side-up in fortune-telling, for of any individual player, I'm not ready to relegate Schneider to the sidelines. He was pretty great for several seasons before becoming less consistent three years ago in New Jersey. Some time away from the NHL, and maybe the game altogether, could do wonders in setting him back on track.

Kavanagh: Buy. This is a case where the eye test and the numbers match up. Schneider has simply looked a hair out of sync on the ice, and his .852 all-situations save percentage backs that up. Will we see Schneider appear in an NHL game again? Yes. But his days as a regular starter are behind him.

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates – Tommy Fleetwood and Jon Rahm, two of the five contenders for the Race to Dubai title, were the closest pursuers of Mike Lorenzo-Vera as the Frenchman took a three-shot lead after the second round of the season-ending DP World Tour Championship.

Lorenzo-Vera, who is feeling the effects of a lung infection he caught in South Africa last week, bogeyed two of his final four holes but still managed to extend his one-stroke overnight lead with a 3-under 69 on the Earth Course at Jumeirah Golf Estates.

Fleetwood (68) and Rahm (69), who both need to win to stand a chance of finishing the season as European No. 1, were tied for second place on 9 under overall.

Bernd Wiesberger, the current leader of the Race to Dubai standings, was tied for 13th and six shots further back after a 71.