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Ecuador deny agreeing terms with Klinsmann

Published in Soccer
Thursday, 17 October 2019 04:10

Ecuador have denied agreeing terms for Jurgen Klinsmann to become their new national team coach and said media reports that the former United States boss is set to take over are speculation.

"There is nothing concrete, just speculation," Ecuador Football Federation (FEF) director Carlos Galarza told reporters.

But he added: "There have been talks with coaches, or rather, one coach in particular."

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Ecuador's previous coach Hernan Dario Gomez was fired in July after they were knocked out in the Copa America group stages, with under-20 coach Jorge Celico taking charge on an interim basis.

In their most recent match on Sunday, Ecuador were hammered 6-1 by Argentina in a friendly.

Klinsmann, 55, has previously coached Bayern Munich, Germany and the U.S. men's national team.

During his five years in charge of the U.S. between 2011 and 2016, Klinsmann won the Gold Cup in 2013 and reached the round of 16 at the 2014 World Cup.

Mohammad Naveed, the UAE fast bowler and captain facing ICC corruption charges, says he made a "mistake" in not reporting an approach made to him. There were three players caught in this investigation but Qadeer Ahmed has already made it clear that he wants to push for an appeal.

According to a report in the National, Naveed was approached by a person claiming to be a representative from a T10 franchise but once the 32-year old realised the person he was meeting was a "fixer" he ended the conversation.

Naveed, however, faces more than just a failure to report charge. On Wednesday, the ICC charged him and senior batsman Shaiman Anwar with "contriving, or being party to an agreement or effort to fix or contrive or otherwise influence improperly, the result, progress, conduct or any other aspect of matches in the upcoming ICC World T20 Qualifiers 2019." ESPNcricinfo understands that both players, allegedly, stood to gain up to US$272,000 (approx.) if they were successful in their attempts.

"I am very sincere about my game, I am very sincere about my career," Naveed told the National. "I have been successful for the UAE around the world, in leagues, for franchises. That is because I am very sincere about my game.

"Now this has happened, I feel guilty. Why did I not talk to the board, why did I not talk to the ICC? It is my mistake, and I feel guilty."

"My family is let down, my friends are let down. Everybody is let down. This was my mistake.

Naveed defended himself by pointing to his record for the UAE. "I'm only scared of my God, not anybody else," he said. "I speak very truly. My passion is cricket, I love cricket, my life is cricket.

"I am a successful cricketer - not only in Associate cricket, but in all the world. Look at my ranking, look at my economy rate. My focus is only on cricket, not on being a bad boy."

Qadeer is in trouble for failing to disclose details of an approach and also giving out inside information while knowing it might be used for betting. The 33-year old who has played only 11 ODIs and ten T20Is for UAE agreed that he made a mistake in not reporting the approach but denied all other wrongdoing.

"Regarding code breaches, I admit I failed to report a wrong approach to the ICC. I should have taken that seriously, and reported it to the [Emirates Cricket Board]," he told the National

"In terms of the other breaches, for inside information and non-cooperation on things, I want to deny that. I will appeal to the ICC regarding the other breaches."

Naveed and his team-mates have 14 days from October 16, 2019 to respond to the ICC's charges.

Josh Navidi is set to play in his first World Cup quarter-final against France on Sunday but, in Warren Gatland, he has a head coach who has seen it all before at rugby's biggest tournament.

The New Zealander led Wales to the semi-finals in 2011 and the last eight four years later.

Gatland will leave his post at the end of the World Cup and his players will be tapping into his experience to ensure he leaves on a high.

"It's massive," said Navidi.

"It's that confidence that we know that he's been there before and he can push us through the week and make sure we're ready for that.

"He's been around for a long time, how many Six Nations championships he's had and how far he's gone in the World Cup in the past.

"We want them [the coaching staff] to finish on a high and, how long they've been around, we want them to finish on a positive and give them the send-off they deserve."

When Wales last played a World Cup quarter-final, against South Africa in October 2015, Navidi was in the midst of a four-year absence from the Wales squad.

He made his debut in Japan in June 2013 but had to wait four years and a day before playing his next Test against Tonga in Auckland.

So when it came to Wales' last-eight meeting with the Springboks at Twickenham four years ago, Navidi was recovering from injury with the Cardiff Blues as he watched his club side beaten by Munster in a Pro14 match in Cork.

Fast-forward four years and he is now a prominent member of Wales' back row with 22 caps to his name, a force of nature who carries powerfully, tackles relentlessly and grafts at the breakdown with an apparently insatiable work ethic.

But with Justin Tipuric, Ross Moriarty, Aaron Wainwright, Aaron Shingler and James Davies providing competition for back-row places in Japan - and Taulupe Faletau and Ellis Jenkins only out of the picture because of injury - Navidi is still reluctant to call himself an established first-team player.

"I always take it game by game and always have done," said the 28-year-old.

"Each week I hope to put in a good performance to keep me in that shirt as I know how quickly things can change. I will grasp it with both hands, take the opportunity."

Wrestling tips from Dad

Gatland is clearly a fan. Even with the back-row riches at his disposal, he has described Navidi as an "integral part of that loose-forward trio".

Among the Cardiff Blues player's many qualities, Gatland notes he "runs hard, tackles hard, does the basics well" and is "good in the contact area".

Whether he is looking to steal opposition ball or protect his own team's possession, Navidi is a weapon at the breakdown.

He is often to be found wrestling opponents to the ground, getting his body low and making himself difficult to shift out of the way.

For those wrestling skills, he has his father Hedy to thank.

Hedy moved from Iran to Wales to study civil engineering and it was in Bangor where he met his wife Euros, who is from Anglesey.

The couple moved to Bridgend, where Josh was raised as a child and taught how to wrestle by his father, who was a freestyle wrestler of a high enough quality to have competed at the British Open.

Hedy and Euros have travelled to Japan to watch their son play at the World Cup, and Josh is hoping to put those wrestling skills to good use in the knockout stages.

"I hope so, all the years with him, messing about, nothing too serious," he said.

"It is nice to have them out here.

"I am sure he will say something just before the game. It is nice for them to get out and enjoy it, because they don't get away that much - my dad is quite stubborn, with flying and travelling!

"It is nice for them to experience it, because my dad is quite a big sportsman, he is enjoying it."

Australia pick 19-year-old Petaia at centre to face England

Published in Rugby
Thursday, 17 October 2019 01:06

Teenager Jordan Petaia is a surprise selection for Australia after being named at outside centre for Saturday's World Cup quarter-final against England.

The 19-year-old, who will win just his third Test cap, partners Queensland Reds team-mate Samu Kerevi in midfield.

Will Genia is preferred to Nic White at scrum-half while David Pocock and Michael Hooper are in the back row.

Kurtley Beale has passed concussion protocols to start at full-back.

"I'm just a believer. Call me a sucker. I believe in my lads," said coach Michael Cheika on Monday.

"I know there are other people who won't give us much of a chance but I believe that when you believe in yourself you are much closer to being able to create history,"

Australia team to face England: Beale; Hodge, Petaia, Kerevi, Koroibete; Lealiifano, Genia; Alaalatoa, Latu, Sio; Arnold, Rodda; Naisarani, Hooper (c), Pocock.

Replacements: Uelese, Slipper, Tupou, Coleman, Salakaia-Loto, White, To'omua, O'Connor.

Kearney and O'Mahony start for Ireland against New Zealand

Published in Rugby
Thursday, 17 October 2019 00:15

Experienced duo Rob Kearney and Peter O'Mahony have been restored to the Ireland team for Saturday's World Cup quarter-final against New Zealand.

Garry Ringrose will partner Rob Henshaw in the centre for the first time in 16 months as head coach Joe Schmidt makes three changes from the win over Samoa.

Champions New Zealand have trusted Jack Goodhue and Anton Leinert-Brown to solve their midfield conundrum.

Brodie Retallick is named at lock despite little game time in Japan.

Beauden Barrett will once again operate at full-back with Richie Mo'unga at fly-half while Cody Taylor is preferred to Dane Coles at hooker.

Experienced duo Ryan Crotty and Ben Smith are not included in Steve Hansen's matchday 23 with Sonny Bill Williams only among the replacements.

Goodhue and scrum-half Aaron Smith are the only starting backs who played in their defeat by Ireland in Dublin last year, which is also the last time they failed to score a try.

Twelve players who began Ireland's victory last November keep their place with Henshaw, Murray and Iain Henderson replacing Bundee Aki, Kieran Marmion and Devin Toner.

Injuries not a problem

Unlike four years ago, head coach Joe Schmidt has not had to deal with a huge number of fitness concerns in the build-up to the quarter-final.

Of his 31-man squad, only Aki was unavailable for selection following his red card last weekend, while Ulster hooker Rob Herring trained on Thursday having been flown in to replace the injured Sean Cronin.

Despite offering a compelling case for selection with a stand-out display at full-back against Samoa, Jordan Larmour is on the bench with Schmidt favouring the experience of 94-time capped Kearney.

Lions forward O'Mahony is also preferred in the back row at the expense of Tadhg Beirne.

"There are probably four or five, maybe half a dozen, reasonably tight selection decisions," said Schmidt on Thursday.

"You can't guarantee you've got any decision right until the game is completed."

Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton will become Ireland's most-capped starting half-back duo, overtaking Peter Stringer and Ronan O'Gara by lining up together for the 56th time.

New Zealand's Pool B schedule was reduced to just three games after their final match against Italy was cancelled as a result of Typhoon Hagibis.

Despite being denied the chance to finish the pool with four wins from four, the All Blacks still finished top courtesy of three victories and two bonus-points in their opening matches.

Goodhue missed the opening win against the Springboks with a hamstring injury, but impressed sufficiently against Canada and Namibia to retain his place in the starting XV.

Leinert-Brown remains at inside-centre having operated at 13 against South Africa, as head coach Steve Hansen continues with his dual-playmaking threat of Barrett and Mo'unga.

Retallick, capped 78 times, was restricted to just 30 minutes of action, against Namibia, in the group stages as he returned from a dislocated shoulder but will renew his vastly experienced partnership with Sam Whitelock in the second row.

The reigning champions are undefeated in their last 17 World Cup fixtures, last tasting defeat against France in the 2007 quarter-finals.

Ireland: Kearney; Earls, Ringrose, Henshaw, Stockdale; Sexton, Murray; Healy, Best, Furlong, Henderson, James Ryan, O'Mahony; Van der Flier, Stander.

Replacements: Scannell, Kilcoyne, Porter, Beirne, Ruddock, McGrath, Carbery, Larmour.

New Zealand: B Barrett; Reece, Goodhue, Lienert-Brown, Bridge; Mo'unga, Smith; Moody, Taylor, Laulala, Retallick, Whitelock; Savea, Cane, Reid.

Replacements: Coles, Tuungafasi, Ta'avao, S Barrett, Todd, Perenara, Williams, J Barrett.

An (64) jumps out to early lead in home country at CJ Cup

Published in Golf
Wednesday, 16 October 2019 19:14

The PGA Tour has headed east for the Asian Swing, beginning with a stop at Nine Bridges in South Korea, where Ben An seized control in the opening round of the CJ Cup in his home country. Here's how things played out:

Leaderboard: Ben An (-8), Joaquin Niemann (-7), Jason Day (-6), Danny Lee (-5), Charles Howell III (-5), Charley Hoffman (-5), Jung-gon Hwang (-5)

What it means: With a handful of top-ranked Americans in the field this week, it was a display of International talent Thursday at Nine Bridges, highlighted by the play from a pair of local South Koreans in An and Hwang. Niemann continued his hot play to start the year, after his win at the season-opening Greenbrier, and Lee had his best opening round since he fired a 66 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic back in June.

Round of the day: An displayed flawless golf en route to a bogey-free, 8-under 64 and a one-shot lead after Day 1 in his home country. An already has a top-five this season, finishing third at the Sanderson Farms Championship. Winless on the PGA Tour, An is in prime position after the first day to claim his first title, and what a maiden win that would be in his backyard.

Best of the rest: Niemann also went bogey-free Thursday, carding a 7-under 65, but ran into a buzzsaw in An, who bested him by one. The last time the 20-year-old shot an opening-round 65? Just last month at The Greenbrier, when he went on to claim his second PGA Tour victory.

Biggest disappointment: Nearly a month ago, Danny Willett held off Jon Rahm to take the title at the BMW PGA Championship in his home country of England. The 2016 Masters champion began his day with two birdies in his first three holes, but imploded on his back nine, with four bogeys and a triple. Though, on the bright side, Willett did end his day with a birdie at the last to card a 4-over 76.

Shot of the day:

Watch: Altomare sinks ace to win car at Buick LPGA Shanghai

Published in Golf
Wednesday, 16 October 2019 20:18

Brittany Altomare needed a jolt of energy after she made the turn during the first round of the Buick LPGA Shanghai.

She began her day on the second nine, carding a disappointing 2-over 38 that a pair of bogeys and a costly double at the par-3 16th. But things wouldn't stay down for long.

A par at the first made way for that jolt of energy, exactly what the doctor ordered. On the par-3 second, facing a brutal and tricky harsh down wind, Altomare took aim.

If not for the flagstick, that ball may have keep rolling into 2020. But luckily for Altomare, who had already struck gold with the hole-in-one, she also won a Buick in the process.

Altomare also carded two birdies on her inward nine, finishing her opening round with a 2-under 70, just three off the lead held by Amy Yang.

MLS Cup Round 1 preview: Everything you need to know

Published in Soccer
Monday, 14 October 2019 13:22

The international break has come and gone, meaning the revamped MLS Cup playoffs are about to kick off. A 14-team field, single elimination all the way to MLS Cup, no more international breaks interrupting the postseason in its most dramatic moments -- the 2019 playoffs have a fresh, vibrant feel. With that buzz firmly established, we break down each of the six Round 1 matchups, which start Saturday.

Jump to: Atlanta vs. New England | Seattle vs. Dallas | Toronto vs. D.C. | Salt Lake vs. Portland | Philadelphia vs. Red Bulls | Minnesota vs. Galaxy

2. Atlanta United vs. 7. New England Revolution

1:00 p.m. ET Oct. 19

Backstory: Atlanta United are the defending champions and remain among the best teams man-for-man in MLS. Despite a coaching change and the sale of Miguel Almiron, the Five Strips maintained their elite club status. Nothing short of an MLS Cup will do for a club that set such a high standard.

The Revs are lucky -- and perhaps happy -- just to be here. The achievement for New England was turning around a mess of a season after the arrival of Bruce Arena in May. Arena brought a new attitude with him, coinciding with strong investment from ownership. For New England, it's mostly about the future.

Playoff path: Atlanta's run to second place in the East and home-field advantage for at least two rounds did not come easily. The early season adjustment period for new boss Frank de Boer nearly undermined the campaign. A strong defensive record and the goal scoring of Josef Martinez carried the team through.

New England managed to win only two of its last 10 games and still make the postseason. Abetted by a poor group behind them in the standings, the Revs pulled off their miracle largely by limiting losses. From May 11 to Decision Day, New England lost only three times.

Connecting thread: The most obvious common denominator between Atlanta and New England is in their ownership. Both clubs are controlled by groups with NFL interests and play in massive NFL stadiums. In that similarity is also contrast: While Atlanta has turned itself into a leading light of MLS, the Revs are still working out how ambitious they want to be.

Tactical contrast: In De Boer's possession-focused system, Atlanta will aim to control the ball while looking for ways to exploit diagonal runs and the work of wing players. Julian Gressel is especially adept at late runs into dangerous areas and has the intelligence to make good decisions in and near the box.

The Revs figure to use their high press to try to force mistakes that can be turned into scoring chances. The Decision Day matchup will serve as date for Arena to tweak the height of his line and the intensity of the press. Despite the scoreline, New England made things difficult for Atlanta in midfield and could use that tactic again.

Headaches: Martinez's remarkable recovery removes one problem for De Boer, but an injury to Miles Robinson, the center-back picked up with the U.S., creates another. Atlanta's manager must juggle his back line and assess the risk of inserting a replacement without Robinson's athleticism or quality on the ball.

New England's biggest headache is overcoming history. The Revs have never beaten Atlanta United in five meetings and will be firm underdogs Saturday. The energy in Mercedes-Benz Stadium will be intense, and it will behoove the visitors to find a way to quiet the crowd early.

Star man: Martinez's record run of goals in 15 straight games speaks to his incredible ability. The knee injury he suffered on Sept. 21 looked like a heavy blow to Atlanta's championship chances. His return to the field and scoring against New England on Decision Day put the Five Stripes back in the hunt.

Gustavo Bou has shouldered the goal-scoring load since joining, but the Revs' most influential player is midfielder Carles Gil. The Spaniard scored 10 goals and collected 14 assists in 2019, leading New England in both categories. The best attacking moments typically run through Gil.

Where it will be won: On Decision Day, the Revs tried to clog up the midfield and had a modicum of success. Altanta's posture -- will they be willing to let the Revs have the ball? -- and New England's midfield press will determine the outcome.

X factor: It seems odd to call Gressel an X factor at this point, but the German midfielder is so often the player who springs the United attack or arrives to fire home a shot that he remains the first name that comes to mind for the label.

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In addition to Gil and Bou, the Revs can threaten through the speed and industry of Cristian Penilla. Look no further than New England's goal in Atlanta on Decision Day for what the Ecuadorian can do when given half a chance through an error.

Atlanta will win because: It's simply better. If we need to be more specific. United will see off the Revs because of the litany of goal threats and a midfield that works as well together as any in MLS.

New England will win because: The Five Stripes make mistakes. The Revs will try to force said mistakes, but either way, the only real path to victory for New England is if it is gifted more than one opportunity through giveaways and errors by Atlanta.

Prediction: Atlanta United 3-1 New England Revolution. -- Jason Davis (@davisjsn)

2. Seattle Sounders vs. 7. FC Dallas

3:30 p.m. ET Oct. 19

Backstory: As in previous seasons, Seattle had a rough first-half but righted the ship in late summer and methodically marched to a second-place finish in the West. Once again, expectations are high for a deep playoff run.

FC Dallas are young and bursting with talent, which makes them a difficult out for anyone. Coach Luchi Gonzalez has stuck to the "play your kids" philosophy, and it paid off with a postseason berth. How all those young players will handle the playoff pressure is another story.

Playoff paths: Seattle punched its postseason ticket with a full two games to spare and emerged from a seven-team scrum in the Western Conference to finish as the 2-seed. FC Dallas needed a final day win over Sporting Kansas City at home and achieved that with flying colors, scoring as much as Dallas Cowboys running back Ezequiel Elliot (six) on the same day to clinch.

Connecting thread: From 2014 to 2016, Seattle and FC Dallas squared off in the postseason and delivered some drama. Seattle squeaked past the Texans in 2014, 1-1 on aggregate, thanks to an away goal. FC Dallas got their revenge in 2015 in a wild conference semifinal that saw three goals in the waning minutes of the second leg that ended in a penalty shootout win. The next year as part of a late season surge to MLS Cup, Seattle leveraged a 3-0 first-leg win to eliminate the Supporters' Shield champions in the conference semifinals 4-2.

Tactical contrast: The Sounders are playing more direct soccer these days to ease the burden on a revamped defense, and the likes of forwards Jordan Morris and Raul Ruidiaz are players who can wreak havoc on FCD's tendency to leave gaps. The Texans are feast or famine when it comes to their possession-based attack; they could hit five goals one game and zero the next. The good news is that center forward Zdenek Ondrasek has found his footing in MLS -- he even scored the winner for Czech Republic over England last week in Euro 2020 qualifying -- and gives FC Dallas a legitimate scoring threat at the No. 9 position.

Headaches: Colombia international Santiago Mosquera might have played his way into a starting role on the left wing over Dominique Badji with a strong close to the season, including a start in the Decision Day walloping of Sporting KC. Seattle boss Brian Schmetzer has a center-back quandary with Roman Torres, Xavier Arreaga and Kim Kee-Hee vying for two spots in defense. Torres has recently returned to the lineup and looks to have nailed down a spot, so Schmetzer has to figure out who he prefers in that pairing.

Star man: Nicolas Lodeiro is the straw that stirs the Sounders' drink, and it's imperative that he's at his playmaking best for Seattle to advance. Goalkeeper Jesse Gonzalez has been quietly good this season in Big D, and Ondrasek's scorching form puts him in the conversation, but Michael Barrios (15 assists) is still the one to create Dallas' scoring chances.

Where it will be won: FC Dallas need a quick start to pile pressure on the hosts and provide a confidence boost for a team with plenty of players lacking playoff experience. If not, Seattle has more match winners on the field, with Ruidiaz and Morris boasting strong playoff pedigrees.

X factor: He might be a defender, but Matt Hollingshead has emerged as quite the goal threat in 2019. The left back scored six goals and has been stellar defensively. Why is he not with the national team? He might drive fans crazy with his inconsistency or the tendency to go missing, but Joevin Jones can turn any match in Seattle's favor with his speed, deep runs and inch-perfect crosses.

Seattle will win because: The Sounders were extraordinary this year in close games. They claimed 12 wins by a one-goal margin, with six of those by a 1-0 final scoreline. Although not a team for the faint of heart, this squad shows that kind of mental toughness that often counts in the postseason.

Dallas will win because: With Ondrasek in great form at the moment and expectations low, a team playing with no pressure will sneak out of Seattle with a win.

Prediction: Seattle 1-0 FC Dallas. -- Arch Bell (@ArchBell)

4. Toronto FC vs. 5. D.C. United

6:00 p.m. ET Oct. 19

Backstory: Toronto FC is a dynasty on hold. The 2017 MLS Cup champions took a big step backward in 2018, missing the playoffs despite the league's highest payroll. This year is therefore a stride toward reclaiming what the Reds believe is their proper place at the top of the league.

The opening of Audi Field and the signing of Wayne Rooney were game-changing events in the history of D.C. United. A club that lagged behind the vanguard of the league could now attempt to compete on a more even footing. Rooney's imminent departure raises new questions, and D.C. is still a second-tier club in terms of spending, but there's new hope in Washington.

Playoff path: For most of 2019, Toronto looked unsure of itself. Injuries, absences and changes via departed big names caused TFC to struggle with consistency. The talent was there, and a late 10-game unbeaten run showed the Reds to be a force to be reckoned with in the East.

D.C.'s fifth-place finish was a mild disappointment considering its early place among the conference leaders. Only a late-season run of excellent defensive play kept it from dropping further down the table. Goals are missing, but the Black and Red can thank Bill Hamid & Co. for giving them a shot.

Connecting thread: Although D.C. United is the older MLS club by more than a decade and Toronto's best era is so recent, both clubs arrive at the 2019 MLS Cup playoffs with dreams of reclaiming former glory. D.C. is the original MLS dynasty and believes the game-changing effects of Audi Field could push the club back to the top. TFC still spend more than anyone and want to see the return on that investment lead to a second MLS Cup title.

Tactical contrast: TFC use the passing ability of Michael Bradley to stretch the field. Alejandro Pozuelo will play from the hole, picking up balls from the wingers and pushing them into Toronto's center-forward. The Reds' approach changes if Jozy Altidore is unable to bounce back from his quadriceps injury.

D.C. United will play a deep line of confrontation on the road in Toronto, counting on Paul Arriola to run the channels and latch onto balls played out of the rear of the formation. The attack has gone missing the past three months, so the plan will almost entirely focus on defending.

Headaches: If Altidore can't play, Toronto has a massive problem replacing him at the front. The American's influence goes beyond goal scoring, with his hold-up play and passing crucial to TFC's ability to break down what will be a resolute United defense.

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A similar problem exists for Ben Olsen. Wayne Rooney is a must-start, but his ability to impact the game is hurt by the lack of a viable partner up top. Recently, Olsen has turned to playing Arriola underneath Rooney, more a nod to defending than to the attack.

Star man: Pozuelo arrived in March following a protracted transfer process and immediately became TFC's most important attacking player. His goal-scoring exploits were a bit of a surprise, but with international call-ups and injuries, his all-around offensive contributions were crucial.

If D.C. is going to be a threat to score in Toronto, it will likely be Rooney who pulls the string or finds the moment that leads to a goal. There's an extra bit of pressure on Rooney to deliver in his second playoff game, given his impending departure.

Where it will be won: United's ability to hurry and harry Bradley will determine how long it can keep Toronto off the board and perhaps spring an upset, especially if Altidore is missing.

X factor: If Altidore can't go, the Reds will be searching for goal threats. That makes the case for Omar Gonzalez as the X factor for TFC a strong one; not only will the center-back be crucial to Toronto's defensive effort, but he can also be a threat on set pieces.

Arriola is D.C.'s second-best player and will carry his usual weight on both sides of the ball. If D.C. is going to win on the road in Canada, it's a decent bet that Arriola will have a hand in the victory.

Toronto will win because: It has the better talent throughout a squad with match winners such as Pozuelo. The home crowd should push the Reds on, even if Altidore is missing and Toronto needs to be more creative to find chances against a strong United defensive group.

D.C. will win because: Bill Hamid in goal and Olsen's disciplined tactics elsewhere keep TFC off the board and let United squeeze a goal from a set piece or an opportunistic moment. Rooney pops up with some magic, perhaps combining with Arriola to find a way around Toronto on a breakaway.

Prediction: Toronto FC 1-0 D.C. United -- Jason Davis

3. Real Salt Lake vs. 6. Portland Timbers

10:00 p.m. ET Oct. 19 (watch live on ESPNEWS)

Backstory: It has been a turbulent season off the field in Salt Lake, with the controversial firing of head coach Mike Petke, yet despite all those distractions, things have come together nicely on the field under interim boss Freddy Juarez, with RSL securing the 3-seed in the west.

Portland endured a roller-coaster season that started with 12 straight road matches and no wins in its first six (one draw, five defeats). Despite a few bumps along the way, coach Giovanni Savarese managed to rally the troops, and a home-heavy second half of the season finally yielded a postseason berth.

Playoff path: Rio Tinto Stadium was home sweet home for RSL in 2019, accounting for 12 of the team's 16 wins. But it was a four-match stretch amid Petke's suspension and eventual firing that made the difference, with Juarez guiding RSL to 10 points out of 12 in late July and early August. For Portland, a four-win July and a four-match unbeaten run to end the season were just enough to nudge this team over the playoff line.

Connecting thread: The first and only time these two sides faced each other in the postseason was RSL's 5-2 aggregate win in 2013. However, Portland have won the past six head-to-head matches.

Tactical contrast: The 2019 RSL team is a far cry from the version that coughed up 58 goals during the regular season in 2018. The current group have conceded just 41 goals, third-best in the league behind Los Angeles FC and DC United. Although they have given up offense in the process (55 goals in 2018 to 46 in 2019), a tighter, more compact defense should aid RSL in the postseason.

The Timbers are one of the best teams in the league on the counterattack, and after their sweep of RSL during the season, it will be interesting to see if Juarez deploys a strong defensive posture, even with Brian Fernandez unavailable and Diego Valeri hampered by injury.

Headaches: Juarez has an interesting decision to make up top. The only RSL player to score against Portland this season was Sam Johnson, who started just 15 of 24 games this season. But his pace and ability to create holes in the Portland defense might win out over Corey Baird or Damir Kreilach. For Portland, it remains to be seen if Diego Valeri has recovered from injury, but even at 80% fitness, you can't help but think that Savarese will be tempted to play his veteran midfielder.

Star man: For RSL, it's a close race between Jefferson Savarino and Albert Rusnak in 2019, but for this one game, the nod goes to Savarino, who is in excellent form for both club and country and could use these MLS playoffs as a springboard to an overseas move this winter. Meanwhile, with Fernandez out and Valeri's status uncertain, all Portland eyes will be on Sebastian Blanco. The Argentine playmaker has picked up the slack in the absence of those 19 goals and 17 assists. With a pair of goals and an assist in his last three, Blanco has to be the go-to guy.

Where it will be won: For RSL, it's vital to stay mistake-free, in midfield most of all. Portland will be on the prowl for any sloppy mistakes in the middle, which is where Blanco and Jeremy Ebobisse can put RSL to the sword. If Johnson is on the field for RSL and can stretch the Timbers' defense, the chances will come for the hosts.

X factor: Sebastian Saucedo can provide a lot of punch off the bench. The weather is going to be cold and nasty Saturday, and a strong body like Saucedo, against a tiring defense in the second half, could help spark a late winner if needed. On the other side, it's the ultimate MLS playoff X factor: Dairon Asprilla. The Colombian "Mr. October" scored on the final day of the regular season against San Jose and has three goals and four assists in just 693 postseason minutes.

Salt Lake will win because: The absences of Fernandez and Valeri will be too much for Portland to overcome against an RSL back line that is considered one of best in the league. The hosts have just enough in attack to advance.

Portland will win because: The Timbers' winning streak against RSL will continue on the strength of Blanco and Ebobisse making the most of RSL's midfield errors. This group knows how to get the job done away from home in the postseason.

Prediction: Real Salt Lake 0-1 Portland. -- Arch Bell

3. Philadelphia Union vs. 6. New York Red Bulls

3:00 p.m. ET Oct. 20

Backstory: Qualifying for the playoffs for the third time in the past four seasons, Philadelphia in 2019 has been rewarded for its faith in manager Jim Curtin by leading the Eastern Conference for much of the season. With a dynamic core of homegrown players augmented by astute recruitment from new GM Tanner Ernst, the Union have raised their expectations this season.

This is the Red Bulls' eighth consecutive postseason appearance, with three Supporters' Shields won in that time. Without an MLS Cup win, it's hard to call the club a dynasty, but this team is routinely in the conversation to lift MLS' crown jewel -- or it would be if it didn't have such an awful playoff history.

Playoff path: After something of a slow start, Philadelphia was atop the Eastern Conference for most of 2019. However, three losses in its final four matches condemned this team to the No. 3 seed. Kacper Przybylko has proven an inspired addition, leading the club with 15 goals (fifth in MLS) in his first season in MLS, and the emergence of Rookie of the Year finalist Brenden Aaronson -- not to mention Mexico international Marco Fabian -- has ensured that the club has no shortage of attacking threat.

For the first two months of the season, whether the Red Bulls would make the postseason was a valid question. They sat as low as 11th in the East, star Kaku was self-destructing, and questions were being asked of Armas' managerial future. The club recovered, playing well enough to back into the playoffs, but a decidedly .500 record (14W-6D-14L) underlines a mediocre season for a club with bigger aspirations.

Connecting thread: These are two of the league's most revered academies, but while the Red Bulls' homegrowns experienced something of a stagnant season, the Union's Aaronson enjoyed one of the league's biggest breakout campaigns.

Tactical contrast: Philadelphia creates by committee, with Haris Medunjanin, Jamiro Monteiro and Ilsinho -- with the latter typically coming off the bench -- shouldering much of the playmaking burden. The variety of contributors makes it a challenge to close down conduits between that trio and potent finishers such as Przybylko, Fabian and Fafa Picault.

The Red Bulls pioneered the press in modern MLS, and that hasn't changed under Armas. They will live by the turnovers created in the attacking third, leading to quick-strike goals from the likes of Daniel Royer and Kaku, but they will similarly die by the space left behind the press, with both Aaron Long and Tim Parker having underwhelming seasons.

Headaches: Where have the goals gone? The Union scored just three goals from open play in their final five matches of the season, two of which came from Przybylko. If they're going to get the better of the Red Bulls, they need bigger contributions from Picault and especially Fabian.

Long and Parker were meant to be a star center-back pairing in MLS, and in 2018, that looked to be the case. This year, though, after Long's head appeared to be turned by a summer approach from West Ham, that hasn't been the case. The Red Bulls rank fifth of seven Eastern Conference playoff teams in goals conceded and were bettered by two of the conference's non-playoff sides as well.

Star man: It has to be Przybylko. He has directly contributed to 19 goals this season, a number no one else in Philadelphia has come close to matching.

Kaku might have drawn all the headlines the past two seasons -- sometimes for the right reasons, sometimes not -- but Royer has consistently been the driving force this season. His energy from wide areas is instrumental in the Red Bulls' pressing game, and he's equally dangerous as a finisher and creator, as evidenced by his 11 goals and eight assists.

Where it will be won: In Philadelphia's ability to progress the ball forward from the back. If Andre Blake and the defenders in front of him can successfully get the ball into midfield, where the Union's creativity lies, they can break the Red Bulls' press and exploit a vulnerable defense.

X factor: Fabian has the sort of quality that if the stars align -- and they rarely have this season -- he can decide a game all by himself. If he plays to that potential, it's difficult to envision the Red Bulls advancing.

The Red Bulls have perennial goal scorer Bradley Wright-Phillps, and they signed TAM forward Mathias Jorgensen, but it is unheralded Brian White who has been their most dangerous striker in 2019. He just returned from a six-week layoff through a high-ankle sprain, but his nine goals in 16 starts this season suggest he'll be the man to carry New York through.

Philadelphia will win because: The Union's attack-by-committee ethos will prove too unpredictable for a Red Bulls defense that has struggled to catch its breath this season.

Red Bulls will win because: They've been here before. The last time the Union advanced past the first round of the playoffs was 2011, and New York has won a playoff series in four of the past five years.

Prediction: Philadelphia Union 2-0 New York Red Bulls -- Austin Lindberg (@LindbergESPN)

4. Minnesota United vs. 5. LA Galaxy

8:30 p.m. ET Oct. 20 (watch live on ESPN)

Backstory: Although its first two years of MLS existence were largely forgettable, Minnesota's three-year plan proved prophetic, including moving into Allianz Field and qualifying for the playoffs in Year 3. A defense that was record-breakingly bad those first two years was fortified to become the team's strength, and the Wonderwall has made trips to the Twin Cities a nightmare for all comers.

play
1:49

Twellman 'stunned' LA Galaxy couldn't secure a home game

Jon Champion and Taylor Twellman examine the bracket in the Western Conference for the MLS Cup Playoffs.

No team in MLS has the history of the Galaxy: five MLS Cups, four Supporters' Shields and missed playoffs only twice in the past decade (the past two seasons). In captain Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Los Angeles also has unrivaled star power. Since the club's first MLS Cup win in 2002, it has never gone five seasons without lifting the league's most prized silverware; the 2019 postseason marks five seasons since the Galaxy's most recent MLS Cup.

Playoff path: United were a bubble team for the first three months of the season, only for a summer run of form to vault them to second in the Western Conference down the home stretch. A tough end of the season with a draw vs. LAFC and a loss in Seattle dropped the Loons into this 4-vs.-5 matchup with the Galaxy.

To say it has been an up-and-down year for the Galaxy would be an understatement. For most of the first half of the campaign, they were best of the rest in the West behind LAFC, but a midsummer swoon raised questions of a third straight postseason without Los Angeles' original MLS club. The Galaxy made it, obviously, but dropped their last two games of the regular season to Vancouver and Houston -- two clubs with nothing to play for.

Connecting thread: Both teams should be desperate. Both teams could've and should've finished higher in a Western Conference that is wide-open behind LAFC. Neither team has made the playoffs the past two seasons. Neither team will be satisfied with a one-and-done postseason, considering the circumstances: Minnesota with a decided home-field advantage giving them a boost and the Galaxy with the godlike talents of Ibrahimovic.

Tactical contrast: Minnesota is often at its best possessing the ball, circulating in the attacking half and taking advantage of opportunities in wide areas through the superb performances of full-backs Romain Metanire and Chase Gasper. The Loons have been let down by their insistence on crossing, when a greater emphasis on combination play in the channels can create more space for an attack that is low on confidence at present.

For a team with as many weapons as the Galaxy have, everything still runs through Ibrahimovic. Cristian Pavon, Uriel Antuna, Sebastian Lletget and Jonathan dos Santos all possess something unique in LA's moves forward, making them on paper a versatile and unpredictable attack. But ultimately, the Galaxy will live and die by their big No. 9.

Headaches: Minnesota creates chances like few other teams in the league, but finishing has been a problem down the stretch. Of the four goals this team scored in the final four games of the regular season, none was scored by an attacking player.

No playoff team in either conference is as porous as the Galaxy; in fact, just four clubs conceded more this season. Three times in their final seven matches, the Galaxy allowed four goals, including those losses to eliminated Vancouver and Houston.

Star man: Darwin Quintero was Minnesota's first Designated Player, and he remains the most talented man in the squad. The club's front office spoke of MVP expectations early this season, after three goals and three assists in his first four contests, but he has cooled considerably since then, despite notching 10 goals and five assists -- hardly numbers to scoff at, especially in what's considered a down year.

Ibrahimovic is the star man at the All-Star Game, let alone with his club. He has scored 56 goals in 52 MLS matches and is arguably the best player to have ever played in the league. In a Galaxy team full of stars, Ibrahimovic shines brightest.

Where it will be won: In transition. Minnesota will need to be especially careful not to give the ball away, as the pace and dynamism of Cristian Pavon and Uriel Antuna can easily create opportunities for the other and Ibrahimovic on the break. Minnesota has the fifth-best defense in MLS, but careless possession in the middle third especially will put Defender of the Year finalist Ike Opara and Goalkeeper of the Year finalist Vito Mannone to the test.

X factor: In a season in which Minnesota has seen its attack blow hot and cold, with a rotating cast of goal scorers carrying the club to victory, Mason Toye is perhaps the most unpredictable and has the most potential. His brace singlehandedly sunk LAFC in the Loons' surprise 2-0 win at LAFC in September.

Jonathan dos Santos has the defensive nous to disrupt Minnesota's possession game, the vision to quickly put the ball in dangerous areas in transition and the finishing ability to get on the end of a move. He also has two goals and an assist in five career matches against the Loons.

Minnesota will win because: It has the defensive strength in Mannone, Opara, Metanire, Gasper and Michael Boxall to keep a prolific attack at bay while possessing great depth in attack, the breadth of which will keep a vulnerable defense guessing.

Galaxy will win because: Zlatan gets what he wants, more often than not. And if the Loons do manage to keep him quiet, all the attention paid to the Swede will leave plenty of opportunities for the likes of Pavon, Antuna and Sebastian Lletget to take advantage of.

Prediction: Minnesota United 3-2 LA Galaxy -- Austin Lindberg

Luck Index: Liverpool's lead should be half what it is

Published in Soccer
Thursday, 17 October 2019 01:28

We're eight games into the Premier League season, and and it already looks as if our hopes of a title race might be over. Liverpool have amassed an eight-point lead in winning every match, but they are lucky to be so far ahead.

ESPN and the team led by Dr. Thomas Curran, at the London School of Economics, compile the Luck Index, to examine how the Premier League would be if luck were not a factor through this season. And our latest update shows that Liverpool's lead would in fact be slashed in half if they weren't so lucky.

- Marcotti: Luck Index 2019 - Here's what we found
- It's official: Man United were lucky all season long

Liverpool were headed for a surprise 1-1 draw against Leicester at Anfield before, five minutes into added time, Sadio Mane fell to the deck after contact from Marc Albrighton. Penalty! James Milner converted with virtually the last kick of the game -- one point turned into three with seconds remaining. Lucky? Plenty of people would say so. Even though there was contact, Mane's theatrics earned the penalty.

Manchester City are two points worse off than they should be after referee Michael Oliver failed to give the champions a penalty against Tottenham earlier in the season. One point that should have been three.

If those decisions were reversed, Liverpool lose two points and City gain two, reducing the gap between first and second to four points.

JUMP TO: The Anti-VAR Index

Any other unlucky teams? Bournemouth are two points worse off, with Aaron Cresswell's deflected goal for West Ham helping the London side claim a draw. Turn that into a home victory and Bournemouth would be sixth in the table, rather than 10th.

Man United were unlucky that Crystal Palace's Gary Cahill wasn't sent off with a straight red card for denying a goal-scoring opportunity. If the ref had made the correct call and Palace went down to 10 men, the Luck Index predicts that United would have earned a point and, as a result, would be two places higher in the table, in 10th place.

Arsenal (loss of 2 points), plus Aston Villa, Leicester and Sheffield United (1 point) complete the list of the league's unluckiest teams.

But hang on, where is Lady Luck sending her charm? Crystal Palace are four points better off and would be 11th in the table, five places lower, if they weren't so lucky at Man United and in avoiding a late equaliser at home to Aston Villa.

Brighton, Newcastle and Southampton have had luck go their way, winning games that would have turned out to be draws. The loss of two points would shift each club a couple of places down the table.

West Ham complete the list, one point better off.


Anti-VAR Index

Decisions, decisions, decisions ... In a shock turn of events over the past month, VAR has actually started giving goals to teams rather than taking them away.

We've seen Bournemouth, Arsenal and Crystal Palace all awarded goals that last season would have been chalked off by the linesman's flag. That's a good thing, right? Well, don't let the football purists hear you say that.

So far 15 match-changing incidents have been overturned, with 11 goals disallowed. But what does this all mean for the Premier League table? Who would be much higher in the table without VAR, and who has VAR helped the most?

- The Ultimate Var Guide: All your questions answered
- Every VAR decision in the Premier League

The Anti-VAR Index mirrors the Luck Index at the top of the table, with Liverpool's lead cut in half to four points. Jurgen Klopp's men lose two points because, without VAR, Chelsea would not have had a goal disallowed against them at Stamford Bridge, resulting in a draw. And Man City would have won at home to Tottenham earlier in the season.

Man United can also have a good moan about VAR, as Arsenal gained an equaliser at Old Trafford when Pierre-Emmanuel Aubameyang had a disallowed goal ruled back in, costing the Red Devils two points.

The only team to suffer a greater points drop than the Manchester clubs are Sheffield United. Chris Wilder's team have enjoyed a great start to life back in the Premier League, but just imagine if the goal disallowed for offside at home to Southampton, when the score was 0-0, had stood. The Anti-VAR Index say the Blades would have won rather than suffer a 1-0 defeat, shooting them into lofty heights of seventh. That climb of six places is the greatest in the list.

West Ham, who have been involved in a third of all overturned decisions, would be two points and three places better off in fifth. Aston Villa, Brighton and Wolves would also have two more points.

Meanwhile, Bournemouth and Tottenham have profited most from VAR decisions and would slide five places down the table to 14th and 15th, respectively, had original decisions stood. So things could be worse for troubled Spurs boss Mauricio Pochettino. Burnley don't fare much better, dropping four places into 11th, when you strip out VAR decisions.

While that trio of clubs might drop the most positions without VAR, it's Southampton who lose the most points. With two VAR decisions in their favour, they are docked three points, but as they are 17th they can only fall into 19th but one point off the foot of the table.

VAR in the Premier League: The stats

Total checks: 475
Overturned decisions: 15
Penalty decisions: 0
Red cards: 0

Most decisions in favour: Southampton (2)
Most decisions in against: Chelsea (2)
Most involved club: West Ham (5 overturns)

Darren Bravo might have been left out of the West Indies squad for the one-off Test against Afghanistan, but lead selector Roger Harper backed the batsman to strike form in domestic cricket and return to the side.

Bravo scored a mere 47 runs in four innings at an average of 15.66 in the Test series against India. His form hardly improved in the CPL, where he managed 128 runs in seven innings, striking at 103.22, and only one half-century.

"Firstly I don't want to term it as dropping a player like Darren Bravo," Harper said in a press conference at the Queen's Park Oval on Wednesday. "We all know the quality of a player like Darren Bravo, with the sort of Test and one-day record he has representing West Indies.

"We recognised Darren has not been at his best as we have seen over the years. Therefore, we wanted to give him the opportunity to go away, maybe play club cricket, but definitely our regional cricket, get his game right and come back to being the best he can be, so that he can make a real positive impact for our West Indies team and be the force we know he can be in world cricket."

The new selection panel of Harper, Miles Bascombe and coach Phil Simmons also gave maiden call-ups to legspinner Hayden Walsh Jr and opener Brandon King for the white-ball squads. Walsh Jr topped the bowling charts in the 2019 CPL with 22 wickets from nine games. But more than the wickets, it was his wicket-taking ability - an astonishing strike rate of 9.1 - that impressed the selectors. King was the leading run-scorer with 496 runs at an average of 55.11 and a strike rate of 148.94.

ALSO READ: Hayden Walsh Jr's moment of truth, at 36,000 feet

"During the CPL, he [Walsh Jr] excited everyone with his performances and given the direction white-ball cricket has gone, we realize the need for bowlers capable of taking wickets," Harper said. "Walsh has proven he is a wicket-taker and I think he will have a great impact on the team, especially in middle overs so that we won't be drifting through but can keep control of games.

"He [King] had an outstanding season, made runs in our domestic four-day competition and followed it up with an outstanding CPL that demanded a place in the team. We were impressed not just by his stroke play, but his maturity and wish him all the best."

Apart from King and Walsh Jr, experienced batsman Lendl Simmons also reaped rewards of a strong show in the CPL and made a comeback to the T20I side. His 430 runs at an average of 39.09 and a strike rate of 150.34 were second only to King's tally. Meanwhile, Denesh Ramdin, who last played a T20I in November 2018 when West Indies toured India, also found a place in the 20-over side as the selectors went for a back-up wicketkeeper in each format.

"Similar to Brandon King, his [Simmons'] weight of runs in the CPL prior to the squad selection made us had to consider him," Harper said. "When we looked at the balance of the team, we needed a player like him because he is a versatile batsman.

"One of the things we tried to carefully do in all three squads is to have a wicketkeeper as cover. Denesh brings with him a lot of experience and as a batsman can contribute in the middle if required and I think he will add a good blend to the team as well."

Talking about his own appointment, Harper said his target was to make the selection process as transparent as possible.

"If the West Indies team is to move forward it's an area we have to get right. I look forward to working with coach Simmons, fellow selector Bascombe, taking the advice of captain Holder and Pollard so that we make this process as transparent as possible, so that every player who is performing and meeting the criteria, will feel they have a fair chance at being selected. Once we do that I believe players will give their best and we will see a positive effect of that on the field."

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