England face Argentina at the World Cup on Saturday with a quarter-final place at stake - and, four years after being knocked out in the group stage, the official line from the England camp in Japan is clear: take nothing for granted.
England's World Cup tilt has so far resembled an old-school computer game. A breeze through the first two levels, a tougher one next, a harder one still beyond.
Fight through all seven in seven weeks and the greatest prize in the sport will be theirs, but no-one in the camp is daring - publicly at least - to look any further than Argentina.
If that is a sensible PR strategy, it doesn't necessarily match that of their support. England have not lost to Argentina in a decade. The Pumas were on a run of 10 consecutive defeats - the worst trot in their illustrious history - before last week's win over Tonga.
Beat Mario Ledesma's men once again here in Tokyo on Saturday afternoon and England will have qualified for the quarter-finals.
"Argentina are a very passionate nation, and they play with their hearts on their sleeves," England skipper Owen Farrell told BBC 5 Live.
"They have a lot of emotion, they're renowned for their scrummaging and they have backs who can win the ball in the air and create things out of nothing. We're going to have to be at the top of our game.
"They seem to play their best rugby at World Cups. The Jaguares playing so well in Super Rugby this year [the Buenos Aires-based side reached the final] has obviously put them in good stead coming into this one, and when the majority of your team play together week-in, week-out, it's got to be a good thing."
Head coach Eddie Jones has once again opted to pick Farrell at inside centre with his old friend George Ford starting at 10.
With the line-up the same as the one that took Ireland apart in their World Cup warm-up game, bar the addition of Anthony Watson on the wing, it is a settled look for England, Tom Curry and Sam Underhill once again paired in the back row as Jones looks for quick ball and a fast-tempo game.
England have never lost to Argentina at a World Cup, with Ben Youngs - who will become the third most capped England men's player with his 92nd game at scrum-half - the try scorer when his side battled to an unconvincing 13-9 win in Dunedin eight years ago.
Jones said: "We believe that Ford and Farrell is the right way to go at the moment, but we've got other options, which is a great thing for us.
"You've got to be flexible in your plans. We had our World Cup squad pencilled in three years ago, and each week we've changed it and upgraded it, but we feel like we've got the squad of players here to represent England, and that they're going to play with a lot of passion and pride and brutality.
"You play against Argentina and they base their game on the scrum. It's the manhood of their approach - you've got to take them on up front, in the scrum, in the maul and at the ruck, that's where it's going to be won.
"I think they were unlucky to lose to France. The stats suggest they should have won the game, so we've the greatest respect for Argentina.
"We've worked hard on it and worked hard on creating training situations to handle situations. It's like a tea bag - you don't know how good it is until you put it in the water."
Jones has opted for a front row of Joe Marler, Jamie George and Kyle Sinckler and a second row combination of Saracens duo Maro Itoje and George Kruis for a match Argentina replacement hooker Agustin Creevy has predicted will be "like a war".
Winger Jack Nowell and prop Mako Vunipola have been selected on the replacements' bench for the first time in the tournament after recovering from long-term injuries, with late squad bolter Lewis Ludlam also getting the nod.
The exclusion of Mark Wilson, one of England's most impressive performers over the past 12 months, is the main surprise, meaning that if anything were to happen to Billy Vunipola, there is no specialist number eight to take his place.
Both Vunipola and Wilson made their England debuts against the Pumas, as did Curry, Underhill and winger Jonny May.
Jones is expecting Argentina to turn back the clock 12 years and revert to the gameplan that got Ledesma and his team-mates all the way to the last four of that tournament, where they were beaten by eventual world champions South Africa.
Jones said: "They've always had a strong forward pack, and they've changed their approach a little bit to be more of a phase team, and selecting a left-footer at 10 suggests they're going to play a high-kicking game.
"They were brilliant in 2007. I can remember being with the South African team that met them in the semi-final, and they were a tough team to beat. But like any side they have weaknesses, and we intend to expose those weaknesses."
Should England win, a victory over France in their final group game in a week's team could set up a quarter-final with Wales in Oita, with three-time champions New Zealand the possible semi-final match-up.
Argentina must win to have any hope at all. It is why Ledesma is calling Saturday's game his own side's World Cup final. Game over is never far away when the stakes are this high.
'A game England can lose' - Analysis
Former England fly-half Paul Grayson
I don't see Argentina coming up with a full-field gameplan like they did in 2015 which can catch England by surprise.
I think England have got a better 23 when they go head to head. It strikes me as a game England can lose, not Argentina can win.
That dynamic of how emotional the Argentines are… we see tears in the national anthem when they're playing Tonga. They're odds on to win but they're still getting to that fever pitch, first 20 minutes game done and then that emotion tails away.
Against England, Agustin Creevy will become the most-capped Argentine player in history, you can see them wrapping that up as part of their emotional build-up to the game.
If England are undercooked and Argentina hit the heights they are capable of when they are emotionally at it, it could be tricky for England.
Both 23-man squads, match them up in a joined-up team and you are going to pick a lot of England players.
They need to be emotionally charged and ready to play, but there's no doubt if England play anywhere near their best they should put Argentina away.
Teams
England: Daly; Watson, Tuilagi, Farrell, May; Ford, B Youngs; Marler, George, Sinckler, Itoje, Kruis, Curry, Underhill, B Vunipola.
Replacements: Cowan-Dickie, M Vunipola, Cole, Lawes, Ludlam, Heinz, Slade, Nowell.
Argentina: Boffelli; Moroni, Orlando, De La Fuente, Carreras; Urdapilleta, Cubelli; Chaparro, Montoya, Figallo, Pagadizabal, Lavanini, Matera, Kremer, Desio.
South Africa kept their World Cup hopes alive with a routine bonus-point win over Italy, who had prop Andrea Lovotti sent off for a tip-tackle.
Handre Pollard converted tries from Cheslin Kolbe and Mbongeni Mbonambi, and added a penalty to put the Springboks 17-3 up at the break.
After Lovotti was dismissed, Kolbe crossed for his second score.
Lukhanyo Am, Makazole Mapimpi, RG Snyman and Malcolm Marx also went over as South Africa went top of Pool B.
The game was over as a contest once Lovotti was dismissed by referee Wayne Barnes early in the second half for his part in picking up Springboks number eight Duane Vermeulen and dropping him headfirst to the floor.
It was the fourth red card already of this World Cup - the joint most ever in a single World Cup alongside 1995 and 1999 - while there was only one in 2015.
Two-time winners South Africa know victory in their final pool match against Canada on Tuesday (11:15 BST) is likely to be enough to secure a quarter-final berth, with Italy facing holders New Zealand in their last game on Saturday, 12 October.
Springboks come through test of nerve
Having lost 23-13 to the All Blacks in their opening match of the tournament, South Africa coach Rassie Erasmus admitted the meeting with Italy was "do or die" for his side.
But the Boks, who were one of the pre-tournament favourites, had any nerves settled by Kolbe's early try when the winger beat two men to touch down in the right-hand corner.
The contest was expected to be a battle between the forwards but Italy lost both their tight-head props, Simone Ferrari and Marco Riccioni, to injury in the first half, leading to uncontested scrums for the final hour.
Pollard missed three conversions but he set up Kolbe's second try with a cross-kick and scored 14 points on the night to become the highest points-scorer for the Springboks at the Rugby World Cup, surpassing Percy Montgomery's previous record.
South Africa pushed home their advantage after Lovotti was sent off but will have concerns over the fitness of Kolbe, who picked up an ankle injury in a tackle in the closing stages.
The Springboks will have bigger challenges to come but have kept themselves in the hunt in a bid to add to their triumphs in 1995 and 2007.
Ill discipline costs Azzurri
Italy had picked up maximum points from their first two pool games against Namibia and Canada, and knew that victory would eliminate the Springboks from the competition.
The Azzurri were unable to capitalise when they did venture into South African territory in the first half, with quick defensive line speed and powerful tackling forcing Conor O'Shea's side back.
The Six Nations outfit had only won one of their previous 14 matches against South Africa, and any chance of a comeback was extinguished when loose-head prop Lovotti was shown the red card three minutes into the second half.
Italy had been awarded a penalty in the South Africa 22 but after the whistle was blown Lovotti and fellow prop Nicola Quaglio picked up Vermeulen and dropped him - with Quaglio lucky not to also be dismissed for his part in the incident.
The game then slipped away from the Italians as veteran number eight Sergio Parisse - who won his 142nd cap, making him the second most-capped player in Test history - was unable to inspire his side.
Italy have participated in every World Cup but have never qualified for the quarter-finals and their wait for a last-eight berth is likely to go on unless they can pull off a first-ever win over New Zealand in Toyota a week on Saturday.
Teams
South Africa: Le Roux; Kolbe, Am, De Allende, Mapimpi; Pollard, De Klerk; Mtawarira, Mbonambi, Malherbe, Etzebeth, De Jager, Kolisi (capt), Du Toit, Vermeulen.
Replacements: Marx, Kitshoff, Koch, Snyman, Mostert, Louw, H Jantjies, Steyn.
WHEATLAND, Mo. — With a record 107 street stock entries, the sixth annual Whitetail Trophy Hunt Presented by Whitetail Trophy Hunt got underway Thursday night at Lucas Oil Speedway with time trials.
David Hendrix, the 2018 Lucas Oil Speedway track champion, had the night’s fast time with a lap of 17.926 seconds. The only driver to post a time under 18 seconds, Hendrix will start on the pole in the first of eight qualifying heat races on Friday night.
Hendrix also earned the TJR Fast Time Bonus, $500 from Tony Jackson and Tony Jackson Racing for the driver quickest in time trials. Jackson, a veteran Late Model standout, has become a leading builder of street stocks through Tony Jackson Racing.
Aaron Poe of Knob Noster had the second-fasted time both in Group A and overall, at 18.266 seconds. Mark Simon of Buffalo was third in Group A (18.306) and Kevin Salter (18.427) was fourth in the group.
Kris Lloyd paced Group B with a lap of 18.244 seconds to edge out Kyle Slader (18.338). Dale Richardson, was third in Group B (18.462) and Dylan Davlin was fourth (18.487).
Those eight drivers will start on the pole for the heat races when action for the street stock division continues on Friday night. The top two finishers in each heat will lock themselves into Saturday’s $10,000-to-win feature and advance to “dashes” on Friday to set the running order of the top 16.
WEST SALEM, Wis. – Derek Kraus and Ty Majeski headlined the list of winners on the opening night of Oktoberfest Race Weekend at LaCrosse Fairgrounds Speedway Thursday.
Luke Fenhaus lead early in the going in the Super Late Model Futures race. He would be hounded for several laps by John DeAngelis Jr., but Fenhaus stood his ground and held onto the lead.
DeAngelis worked his way under Fenhaus to take over the lead on lap 11. The lead would be a back-and-forth battle over several laps between the two, even with a spin by Michael Sauter in turn four on lap 14.
With four laps to go, Fenahus and DeAngelis made contact down the front straight. Fenhaus went for a spin, and Kraus would assume the race lead. Kraus would have to battle with Nick Murgic in the closing laps, but the NASCAR K&N Pro Series West point leader held on to drive away with the victory.
Don Turner lead the first 10 laps of the 40-lap LaCrosse Late Model feature. Adam Degenhardt would motor past Turner to take over the lead on lap 11. Cole Howland found a gear and got around Degenhardt on lap 18 to be the new race leader.
Coming from deep in the field, Nick Panitzke powered his way around Howland just past halfway to assume the top spot. Brent Kirchner spun coming off of turn two to bring out the yellow with 15 laps to go.
The restart did not last long when Kirchner, Randy Humfeld and Ty Reedy made contact and ended up against the turn three wall. On the restart, Ty Majeski made his way through the field. Majeski caught and passed Panitzke with five to go and drove off with the 97th feature win of his career.
Panitzke’s runner-up finish and Steve Carlson’s fifth would give Panitzke the track championship by four points.
In the La Crosse Sportsman feature, Chris Weber drove around Taylor Dawson five laps into the 20-lap feature. Weber would have to endure a rash of yellow flags midway through the race, but they would not stop him from claiming his seventh win of the season. Weber also wrapped up the track championship and the Chase Championship.
Multi-time Hobby Stock champion Adam Moore took the lead halfway throught the Hobby Stock feature. Moore fought off Kaleb Hardy to capture the checkered flag first. Hardy fell short of his quest for a championship as Jason Bolster won with a fourth place effort.
In the Hornet feature, Troy Tuma took the lead early in the race and dealt with a barrage of caution periods. Tuma maintained his lead and held off Patrick Thicke to wind up in victory lane. Mark Bornitz would finish fifth, and that was good enough to lock up the track championship.
Dan Frye added an Oktoberfest Street Stock feature to his track championship at Tomah Sparta Speedway. Frye got around Al Bartels with five laps to go to score the win. Jake Schomers came home in fourth to wrap up the track championship.
Cory Kemkes used a lap car to slip past Glenn Bush Jr. midway through the Outlawz feature to win for the second straight year.
The grand finale of the night was the Double-O Race. Corey Jankowski’s late model and Dave Edwards’ modified battled over the top spot for much of the second half of the race. Edwards looped in turn two with three laps to go, allowing Jankowski to drive off with the win.
NASCAR and Team FJ, which operates the NASCAR Whelen Euro Series, announced a 10-year extension for Team FJ to operate the series through the 2030 season.
The extension further reinforces the foundations of the NASCAR Whelen Euro Series and brings even more long-term stability to the brainchild of Jerome and Anne Galpin, the creators of the European NASCAR championship.
Strengthened with the creation of a dedicated NASCAR International Group in 2018, the plan for both partners is to continue the series’ development through an increased NASCAR involvement to support the Team FJ organization in different areas and position the Euro Series at the highest level of European Racing.
“The whole Team FJ organization as well as the Galpin Family are extremely happy and proud of this extension coming even before the previous agreement’s expiration. This demonstrates the great job done over these past years and the very unique relationship built between Team FJ and NASCAR,” said NWES President CEO Jerome Galpin. “When we created the series, we would have never imagined how big it could become, but today we measure the huge potential still in front of us and figure we only tapped a small portion of it! Working with such great people at NASCAR is definitely a huge opportunity and we are all very excited to work even harder during the next decade to continue to grow NASCAR and it’s unique Pure Racing fun in Europe!”
“Today’s announcement of a 10-year extension reinforces NASCAR’s commitment to its international footprint and sets up the NASCAR Whelen Euro Series for continued growth and expansion in Europe over the next decade,” said Gene Stefanyshyn, NASCAR Chief International Officer. “Europe remains a critical building block of NASCAR’s International initiative and we believe we have established a solid base from which to continue to grow. We are very thankful to Anne and Jerome Galpin and the whole Team FJ organization for the partnership we have shared with them over the past several years and look forward to many more years of cooperation as we build the Series together.” In its exponential growth, since joining NASCAR the Euro Series held NASCAR events at 14 different tracks in eight different European countries and welcomed drivers from five continents. 2019 marked a record grid with more than 30 cars season entries and over 75 drivers representing 22 countries.
The series also keeps growing as a stepping-stone for drivers willing to progress in their NASCAR career by racing in North America. 19 Euro NASCAR drivers competed in NASCAR in North America and five of them took part in a national series event.
LAVONIA, Ga. — Chris Madden led a one-two-sweep for Scott Bloomquist’s Team Zero Thursday night at Lavonia Speedway.
Madden won a side-by-side battle with his team owner, Bloomquist, during the last 15 laps of the World of Outlaws Morton Buildings Late Model Series feature. It was his second win of the season and 26thof his career.
Bloomquist held on for second, fending off a fierce charge from home-state driver Brandon Overton in the closing laps.
Overall, both of the Sweet-Bloomquist Chassis pilots had terrific nights. Second-place finishes in their Drydene Heat races set Madden up for a pole position redraw result and earned Bloomquist a starting spot inside row two.
Scott Bloomquist (right) shakes hands with Chris Madden at Lavonia Speedway. (Jim DenHamer photo)
Madden took off instantly, grabbing the lead into turn one with Brandon Sheppard hot on his tail. The two were quickly locked into a battle of their own, Sheppard working the bottom lane trying to get underneath Madden in the middle.
Sheppard came close several times to pulling even with Madden in his bid for the lead but could never make the move. A restart at halfway restacked the field and gave Sheppard another shot at the leader, but again, could not get by Madden’s No. 0m.
Another restart came just four circuits later. Sheppard decided to try the top side of the speedway on Madden but slipped over the cushion and lost two spots to Bloomquist and Overton.
Overton cracked the whip with 15-to-go and caught the rear of the in-progress Bloomquist and Madden battle for the lead.
Bloomquist hounded his teammate down low, while Madden stayed smooth in the middle to defend his lead. Overton entered the picture and tried every lane to get around the two teammates, but after several laps of inside-outside racing, he could not find a way around the leaders.
A final restart with seven laps remaining allowed Madden to pull away a bit with less than 5-to-go and take it all the way home for his first World of Outlaws win at Lavonia. Both teams are happy, both drivers are happy, and it’s been one incredible summer of racing for Scott Bloomquist Racing that shows no signs of slowing down heading into the fall.
“It’s been awesome to unite back with Scott,” Madden said. “He’s been a big help to me, and I feel like we’ve been a big help to him. It’s just been awesome to put some cars together, put some teams together and be able to produce the way we have.”
Both battles Madden fought with Sheppard and Bloomquist were relentless at times, but through the restarts and all, Madden had his veteran skills working overtime for him on Thursday night.
“I just kept my composure and didn’t miss my marks,” Madden said. “I wasn’t even trying to ‘hold them off,’ I just had to find where I was the best at, and I found it, and won the race.”
Bloomquist played an incredible amount of defense in the final laps, holding off Overton’s late-race rally and bid for the lead.
“I couldn’t really hang as good as I wanted to early, but I thought if I just mileaged my tires and didn’t push it too hard, I might have been a factor later in the race,” Bloomquist said.
After a rough original start, Overton seemed to have driven his car as hard as anyone else in the second half of the feature to get back to the front
“Notoriously, I think these races around here are won on the bottom,” Overton said. “If you get out of that bottom, you just go backwards. But where I was at, I really felt like I had nothing to lose, so I was probably the first one to go to the top. When I moved up there, they were just in the wrong spot on the racetrack for a while.”
BURIRAM, Thailand – Fabio Quartararo led a Yamaha sweep of the top three positions during MotoGP practice on Friday at the Buriram Int’l Circuit.
Quartararo shot to the top of the practice charts in the final moments of practice, leading the Yamaha onslaught with a fast lap of 1:30.404 aboard his Petronas Yamaha SRT bike.
Maverick Viñales was second fastest aboard one of the two factory Yamaha bikes, .193 seconds off the pace set by Quartararo. Franco Morbidelli was third fastest on the second Petronas Yamaha SRT.
Jack Miller broke up the Yamaha party at the front of the field by going fourth fastest for Pramac Racing, with Valentino Rossi giving Yamaha four bikes in the top-five after going fifth fastest.
Marc Marquez had a fairly rough afternoon, which started with a massive high side crash in the first practice. He was taken to a local hospital and was declared fit to compete despite some lower back pain.
Despite the crash, Marquez was able to return for the second practice and set the sixth fastest time of the weekend thus far.
Aleix Espargaro, Andrea Dovizioso, Joan Mir and Alex Rins completed the top-10 on the overall MotoGP practice charts Friday.
PHILADELPHIA -- Ed Snider, the Philadelphia Flyers founder who died in 2016, will be honored with a mural in South Philadelphia.
The Ed Snider Youth Hockey Foundation and Mural Arts Philadelphia will dedicate "Snider Hockey: Inspiring Our Youth" on Saturday at 10th Street and Snyder Avenue. Snider had long said he wanted his youth hockey foundation to become his legacy.
The Flyers won Stanley Cups in 1974 and 1975 under Snider, who was arguably the most influential executive in Philadelphia sports history.
Snider Hockey, which was founded in 2005, has about 3,000 students involved with the program. It targets inner-city boys and girls who otherwise would not have the opportunity to learn to skate or to play ice hockey.
The mural design was created by artist Jared Bader and highlights how Snider Hockey builds lives and unites communities through its on-ice and off-ice initiatives.
Dallas Stars forward Blake Comeau will miss multiple weeks with a lower body injury suffered in the season opener Thursday, but the team received good news on Roman Polak after the defenseman was stretchered off in the second period.
In the first period of the Stars' 2-1 loss to the Boston Bruins, Comeau fell awkwardly after getting hit in the cheek by a puck. Coach Jim Montgomery said after the game that Comeau will miss extended time.
Polak was hurt when he went headfirst into the boards after trying to check Bruins forward Chris Wagner with 12:56 remaining in the second period.
Polak barely moved while face down on the ice before being rolled onto a board and lifted onto the stretcher during a delay that lasted almost 10 minutes.
Despite the scary moment, Montgomery said after the game that Polak was OK following an evaluation at a hospital and could return soon.
"I think obviously we kind of didn't want to think about it after it happened," defenseman John Klingberg said. "We got to get back playing again. It's tough to see a teammate go down like that."
The Stars lost another forward after the first period when Jason Dickinson didn't return with an upper body injury.
"It's life in the NHL," Montgomery said. "Next man up. We went through it all of last year and we're a resilient group. We're a deep organization, and we're going to be OK."
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.
Before every new season, hockey fans start mentally separating teams into castes. The ones that could win a Stanley Cup. The ones that won't win anything. The ones for which it isn't love or hate -- just indifference.
The St. Louis Blues were in that "could win" category before the previous season. Then they plummeted to "absolutely can't win" by midseason. And then they won.
"The league is structured now that if you're one of the 16 teams participating in the tournament, you have a chance to win the Stanley Cup," GM Doug Armstrong told me during a training camp visit to St. Louis. "The Kings won it from the eighth spot. Nashville made it from seventh to the finals. So the parity is there. You just need things to happen along the way to reach your ultimate goal."
Which is to say that the annual Stanley Cup Contender Tiers presented here aren't necessarily the teams' lots in life. These tiers don't account for injuries, trades, hirings and/or firings -- or a rookie goaltender playing his way into Calder, Vezina and Conn Smythe consideration to resurrect a moribund team.
Here are the current groupings in the 2019-20 championship tiers:
These are three teams that can taste the Stanley Cup -- or at least whatever they decide to put inside the Stanley Cup after winning it, like breakfast cereal or a puppy.
Despite last season's first-round disaster, the Lightning were a 128-point juggernaut in the regular season. The Vegas Golden Knights were great too, a 54.66 expected goals percentage team (No. 3 in the NHL), and the only thing at Vegas' games that's better than their forward group is that wacky pregame thing they do with the Medieval Times understudy fighting on-ice projections.
The Leafs have bolstered their blue line with Tyson Barrie and have a trinity of offensive players who cost more than the gross national product of some island nations. But it's starting to seem like this edition of the Buds has reached the same divergent paths as other potential champions in their history: One road leads to the Cup, and the other road leads to an unending parade of migraines about "what went wrong" that is compounded by the team's cap crunch. There's no Cup at the end of that road.
These teams have different levels of title droughts -- 1967 vs. "The Stamkos Era" vs. three long years of existence -- but all have what it takes to win the Cup this season.
Like Kenny Omega, both of these teams can make an argument for being the elite. But in the past 20 years, only four teams have gone to back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals, and two of them had Sidney Crosby. It's hard to reharness the energy of a months-long sprint sparked by a new coach and a rookie goalie. It's hard for a team with several key players north of 30 years old to stay healthy all the way to the finish line again.
Would seeing either Alex Pietrangelo or Zdeno Chara taking the Cup from Gary Bettman surprise us? Absolutely not. But the odds are against it.
This tier is filled with recent champions, such as the Capitals (2018) and Penguins, who defeated the Sharks in 2016 and the Predators in 2017.
Of the four, the Capitals and the Predators seem most primed for a return visit, with Nashville having made the biggest upgrade by landing center Matt Duchene and Alex Ovechkin's team having shaken off what ended up being a two-aspirin Cup hangover.
The Sharks remain a uniquely talented team with Brent Burns and Erik Karlsson devouring minutes, but flawed goaltending and the hole left by Joe Pavelski's exit are significant.
The Penguins are the closest of the four to falling out of the tier, as GM Jim Rutherford refilled his cupboard with generic products, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin with a dearth of forwards and perhaps the lowest skill level for a Penguins team in some time.
The Hurricanes finally put it all together last season, riding a storm surge from analytics darlings to Stanley Cup contenders. Was the goofy enthusiasm that fueled the team a one-year vibe, or is that who they are? Because on paper, their defense is outstanding, their forward group has only gotten better, and ... yeah, the goaltending remains the spot where they once again have to outkick their coverage.
The Stars are "next wave" in the sense that Bon Iver was best new artist at the 2011 Grammys: a known commodity but one that hasn't broken through just yet. Joe Pavelski's arrival will help smarten them up about the whole "playoffs success" thing, in that sometimes the margin of victory or defeat is a goal scored off your face.
We'd love to create another tier for the Avalanche called the Nitroglycerin Tier, in the sense that they're an explosive but highly unstable contender. The hype train has left the station thanks to a tremendous offseason for GM Joe Sakic, but we're weary of crowning a conference king before we're sure they're going to be in the throne room. In other words, Colorado might have as much potential to win the Central as it does to be right back on the playoff bubble. But the Avs are very much a threat to win a Cup in the next three to four seasons.
The Flames have two stellar lines and four solid defensemen (including the reigning Norris Trophy winner) but have entrusted their crease to David Rittich and Cam Talbot. Yikes.
The Jets have a few offensive stars, a solid goalie in Connor Hellebuyck and a defense corps that has been raided like a display at Best Buy on Black Friday. Ugh.
We're giving the Islanders the benefit of the doubt on being contenders, even if they seem like a PDO darling (1.022, best in the NHL) that rode some defiant energy to a playoff seed. But if we're buying them as defensively stellar contenders, their offense was below the median for expected goals last season, and there hasn't been much added to the mix. Curse you, Artemi Panarin, for choosing Broadway over Nassau!
These are three teams that arguably made the most noise in the offseason and now have to show what their investments were worth.
The Coyotes found their offensive focal point (and boon to their team shooting percentage) in Phil Kessel.
The Panthers found their goaltender in Sergei Bobrovsky and their coach in Dale Tallon's old friend Joel Quenneville.
The Devils found their best defensemen since the Scotts retired in P.K. Subban and drafted Jack Hughes to give them a discernible navigational point as a franchise, with or without Taylor Hall after this season.
I think two of three make the playoffs, none higher than a wild card.
ESPN's behind-the-scenes editorial maestro, Tim Kavanagh, compelled me to move the Wild from "flawed contenders" to "total mysteries" because he thinks they'll stink, and I think they're so good defensively that they're still a wild-card threat. But this level of disagreement almost begs for Minnesota to be among the conundrums.
The Ducks have an all-world goalie in John Gibson but flaws everywhere else. The Flyers have some interesting parts that could jell under Alain Vigneault and with a star-making run from Carter Hart. The Blackhawks are like the world's worst ice cream sandwich: Some offensive stars at forward, two potentially great goaltenders and the melted goop of a defense corps that managed to unite Brent Seabrook and Olli Maatta like someone was collecting old parts from championship machines.
Then there are the Blue Jackets. Writing them off is a mistake because there's a lot of talent on this roster and more on the way. When you add that to the wounded-animal comportment of a team that just suffered an exodus like "Tavares to the Leafs" to the third power, the Jackets are going to bring some effort. The problem is that effort doesn't replace a point-per-game winger, and effort can't obscure the fact that the goalies (Joonas Korpisalo, Elvis Merzlikins) have played 90 more NHL games than Jack Hughes.
The Canadiens and Canucks are the teams that have me excited here. Montreal has an interesting collection of forwards in front of Carey Price and Shea Weber, but give them another year before players such as Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Nick Suzuki will be ready to take the leap. The Canucks are further along with their core of Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser, Bo Horvat and Quinn Hughes. I like them far more than most, but health is the whole ballgame there.
The Rangers are an interesting beast. Adding Artemi Panarin, Jacob Trouba and Kaapo Kakko would seem to expedite the rebuilding process, but they have so many players between the ages of 18 and 21 who need some seasoning. They're just too green to trust right now, but they are very much on the right path.
It truly is stunning how little talent surrounds Connor McDavid on this team and how much heavy lifting he's going to have to do to drag the Oilers to respectability -- unless Dave Tippett somehow does what he used to do in Arizona, which is take a middling heap of average and fashion it into something that surpasses the lowest expectations and becomes moderately successful.
Otherwise, we continue to count down the days to the Seal Team Six extraction mission to rescue Connor from non-playoff captivity.
Sigh. We don't want the Sabres here. At all. With Jack Eichel, Ralph Krueger and the potential for above-average goaltending, maybe they won't end up here. But at first blush, this is the tier that makes sense. The one with the three teams whose best interests are served by not being good this season. And also the Sabres.
My official 2019-20 prognostications
In the Eastern Conference, I'm going:
1. Toronto Maple Leafs (A)
2. Tampa Bay Lightning (A)
3. Boston Bruins (A)
As you'll see, the Leafs winning the division has other implications. The Penguins are diminished, but I can't quite see them falling into that abyss where the decade's other titans -- Blackhawks, Kings -- tumbled into quite yet. The wild card comes down to the Panthers, Devils, Flyers and Canadiens. I'm intrigued by Montreal, as they're going to gobble up points in that division. But I'll take the infusion of defense and structure in Sunrise and the infusion of enthusiasm in Jersey, while also noting that expecting the Panthers to live up to expectations has burned many a prognosticator in the past. (2018 Greg stares longingly into the distance.)
Meanwhile, in the Western Conference ... please be gentle:
1. Nashville Predators (C)
2. St. Louis Blues (C)
3. Dallas Stars (C)
1. Vegas Golden Knights (P)
2. Calgary Flames (P)
3. San Jose Sharks (P)
WC1 - Colorado Avalanche (C)
WC2 - Vancouver Canucks (P)
The Central Division truly is the Group of Death this season. Nashville's good. The Blues are going to be good, even if Jordan Binnington is 70% of what he was last season. Dallas is good, and even better if Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn get going earlier. The Avalanche could be first in the division or on the bubble. And yet as much as I'm underwhelmed, I can't sleep on the Jets, Wild and Blackhawks.
The Pacific sends the same top three, as well as ... Vancouver. I'm sorry. I know. But I'm entranced by the young core, I like the goaltending, I'm hoping Travis Green -- one of the best coaches in hockey -- can make these disparate pieces fit. I don't know, maybe I just want to see Elias Pettersson become a transcendent sophomore and Vancouver fans try to wrap their brains around Jim Benning having built a playoff team. So I'm taking the Canucks over the Wild, Coyotes and Blackhawks for the last wild card. Let's go.
An interesting Wayne Gretzky Foul. Please recall that The Great One coached the Phoenix Coyotes from 2005-09, proving once and for all that the best players never seem to make the best coaches. He was also a minority owner. As Dave noted in a subsequent tweet, Gretzky wasn't with the Coyotes when they wore the Kachina jersey, making this an Era Inappropriate Foul.
Ah, but here's the twist: Readers of this space know that because Gretzky has his number retired by every team in the league -- lamentably including the Calgary Flames -- The Gretzky Exception means his name can appear on any jersey worn during his time in the league. And Gretzky was still playing when the Yotes wore these sweaters. Not a Foul.
Winners and losers of the week
Winner: Laila Anderson
I had the honor of writing about the relationship between Laila and the St. Louis Blues during their Stanley Cup run, where she served as a source of inspiration for players like Colton Parayko and Alexander Steen. She is battling hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis, or HLH, a life-threatening immune disease that only 15 other children in the world had been diagnosed with at the time.
The Blues treated her like part of the team, and this week Parayko and Steen made her feel part of a championship team. After the players received their Stanley Cup rings at a ceremony this week, the duo showed up at Laila's house and presented her with one of her own. Grab some tissues, because it's about to get dusty:
play
2:21
Blues surprise super fan with Stanley Cup ring
Blues stars Alexander Steen and Colton Parayko surprise super fan Laila at her house by delivering her a Stanley Cup ring of her own.
What a moment. What a story. What a fan.
Loser: Anyone that tries to follow that with a winners and losers list
What am I, a monster? The puck is dropping for real. We'll be back with the snark next week.
Listen To ESPN On Ice
Emily Kaplan and I are back! We have interviews with Henrik Lundqvist of the Rangers and Taylor Hall of the Devils, preview the 2019-20 NHL season and reveal our Stanley Cup Playoff picks. Plus, Phil Kessel Loves Hot Dogs, Puck Headlines and the Rant Line! Listen here.
Puck Headlines
We mentioned Sean Tierney before. He put together an awesome chart that featured a wide range of points predictions. Good news for Habs fans. Maybe not so much for Wild fans.
Alex Prewitt on the NHL's inroads in China. "I don't think they have a traditional hockey infrastructure over there. I'm talking about ice, rinks, a hockey culture, tradition, history. So those are all things that have to be developed over time. You do that in a careful, slow and patient way. You do it through working at the grassroots level. One school or school system at a time, just exposing the game to more and more people."
Wild GM Bill Guerin talks hockey philosophy. "Individuals having great seasons don't win championships," he said. "Individuals that have great seasons that are playing like a team will."
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