FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- The New England Patriots plan to sign veteran kicker Mike Nugent after placing Stephen Gostkowski on injured reserve, league sources tell ESPN's Adam Schefter.
Nugent, 37, was one of seven kickers the Patriots worked out over the last two days.
Nugent, who has appeared in five playoff games, was the most experienced kicker to work out with the Patriots.
He beat out Kai Forbath, Blair Walsh, Elliot Fry, Matthew Wright, Younghoe Koo and Josh Gable for the job that came open when Gostkowski (left hip) was placed on injured reserve Wednesday. Gostkowski is the Patriots' all-time leader in points and field goals.
Koo, who last kicked for the Chargers in 2017, was added to the Patriots' practice squad as insurance, a source told Schefter.
The Patriots likely will have rookie punter Jake Bailey handle kickoffs,.
With four games of the NFL season in the books for most teams, it's about time to get to the quarter-season awards. I hand these awards out every year for a few reasons. One is to serve as a good reminder of what we were thinking at the time; 12 months ago, as an example, Mike Vrabel was a reasonable Coach of the Year candidate.
To try to get a handle on who is currently winning the major award races, I went through several of the long-standing Associated Press awards and identified my top three candidates after Week 4. To be clear, in each case, I'm talking exclusively about how a player has performed over the first month of the season as opposed to their chances of winning it at the end of the season, although I'll discuss the latter as I explain each pick. I'm also nominating the players I want as opposed to the players I think are the actual favorites to win.
In addition, I also came up with a few awards that aren't yet official, including stuff like Acquisition and Miscalculation of the Year. I'll finish with Most Valuable Player, but let's start with rookies and go from there.
This is an award in which there's no clear favorite after four weeks. I could make the entire list out of edge rushers, though I only ended up using one of the three spots on a pass-rusher. Even among the players I ended up nominating, I could justify any order to myself. There's a lot more differentiating to come.
I think Bush, for whom the Steelers traded up in April and drafted at No. 10 overall, could have a Derwin James-sort of rise as the season goes along and he grows more comfortable in his role. He has already improved over the first month of the year, as he followed an embarrassing game against the Seahawks in Week 2 with much better performances against the 49ers and Bengals. This story is admittedly easy to fall in love with; who doesn't want to say they were behind the next great Steelers linebacker from the start?
Bush leads the league with three fumble recoveries, but I'd characterize that as something closer to a trick than a repeatable skill. For one, he didn't recover any fumbles during his time in Michigan. Defenders who don't force fumbles also rarely recover a significant amount of the fumbles other people create. He has those fumble recoveries without a single forced fumble; when you look back at linebackers over the past 20 years, no linebacker has recovered more than four fumbles he didn't force himself in a single season.
There's a lot to like about what we've seen from Savage through four games. It's telling that the Packers have played Savage on every one of their defensive snaps and felt comfortable moving him around the defense to play in multiple roles. Even young players who have that skill set can struggle before their team places them in one role on a full-time basis, with Lamarcus Joyner's tenure with the Rams as an example. The Packers seem comfortable doing everything they do with Adrian Amos with Savage, too. That sort of versatility makes it easier for Pettine to mask his intentions.
Savage, the No. 21 pick, has shown some early signs of being a playmaker, with one pick and one forced fumble over the first month of the season. The interception was pretty, a diving grab of a pass Joe Flacco seemed to throw with a question mark and a shrug, but the forced fumble was the better play and indicator of what Savage can do. He started the snap threatening as a blitzer before dropping into coverage against Kyle Rudolph. When Kirk Cousins began to scramble out of the pocket, Savage shed Rudolph's attempted block and managed to punch the ball out of the quarterback's hands as he went to the ground. About the only thing Savage didn't do was recover the fumble.
The defensive awards tend to go to pass-rushers, and with apologies to Chase Winovich, Josh Allen and a handful of other defenders, Burns has been the most disruptive pass-rusher from this rookie class through four weeks. The No. 16 overall pick has 2.5 sacks, but where he really stands out is with nine quarterback knockdowns, which is tied for second in the NFL behind Shaq Barrett. Pass-rushers usually turn about 45% of their knockdowns into sacks, and Burns' aptitude in getting to the quarterback suggests his sack totals are likely to rise. He is the only defender in the league with at least two quarterback hits in each of his first four games.
Burns ranks 14th in ESPN's pass rush win rate metric, which paces all rookie pass-rushers, although Allen is just behind him at 15th. Of Burns' sacks, 1.5 would qualify as coverage sacks, but the other one is one of the filthiest sacks of the season, with Burns making Cardinals tackle Jordan Mills look like a grandfather. Burns is already showing off uncommon bend and flexibility as a pass-rusher. He's already a problem for opposing offenses.
The only running back taken in the first round, Jacobs has been the best back of the class so far. He's also the only full-time starter of the bunch, but he has been efficient with his chances. The former Alabama back is averaging 5.0 yards per carry and ranks 13th in the NFL in success rate.
You might chalk up Jacobs' success to an expensively assembled offensive line, but the No. 24 pick has yet to play a single game behind his full first-choice line. The Raiders are down to third-stringer Denzelle Good at right guard with Gabe Jackson sidelined by a torn MCL and Jordan Devey done for the year after tearing his pectoral muscle. Jacobs has also made his own opportunities, as he's averaging 2.4 yards after first contact, which is third best in the league among backs with 50 carries or more.
Though McLaurin missed a Week 4 game against the Giants because of a hamstring injury, he has been the only bright spot for what has otherwise been a depressing Washington offense. McLaurin racked up 257 yards and three touchdowns over the first three games of the year, and those numbers would have been higher if Case Keenum hadn't missed an open McLaurin on what should have been a 73-yard touchdown in the opener.
The No. 76 overall pick is averaging 2.2 yards for every route he runs this season. That's 17th in the NFL and ahead of guys like Odell Beckham Jr., JuJu Smith-Schuster and Julio Jones. I don't expect McLaurin to keep that up over the course of the whole season, but it's pretty clear that Washington has a legitimate starting receiver. I'm putting McLaurin ahead of Marquise Brown of the Ravens solely because nearly half of Brown's receiving yardage and both of his touchdowns came against the Dolphins in Week 1.
I didn't expect this one! One of the higher-drafted quarterbacks has a better shot of coming away with this award, but Daniel Jones has played only about 60% as many snaps as Minshew, and the Jaguars' quarterback has significantly better numbers than Kyler Murray. Though the first overall pick led the Cardinals back for a dramatic tie against the Lions in Week 1, and Jones followed with a last-gasp victory over the Buccaneers in his first start, Minshew brought the Jaguars back twice in the fourth quarter to take and retake the lead against the Broncos.
He has also improved with more experience. He was mostly checking things down and playing conservative football over the first two weeks of the year, but in the wins over the Titans and Broncos, he has averaged an even 9 air yards per attempt. The book on Minshew coming out of Washington State was that he lacked an NFL-caliber arm, but on the final drive of the Broncos game, Minshew had no trouble hitting a 16-yard deep out to Dede Westbrook on the left sideline from what was nearly the opposite hashmark. The sixth-round pick's size was supposed to be a problem, but it helped him duck away from pass pressure and scramble to convert a third-and-14.
When I wrote about Mason Rudolph a couple of weeks ago, I noted that it wasn't a good sign the new Steelers starter had fallen to the third round. Rudolph is 6-foot-5 and 236 pounds. He's a good athlete. If a quarterback with prototypical size has NFL skills, they go in the first round. (Several people brought up Tom Brady as a counter, which is like using a winning lottery ticket from 15 years ago as proof that it's smart to play the lottery.)
If there was a late-round quarterback the scouts would miss on and underestimate, though, it would be someone like Minshew. The 23-year-old is just under 6-foot-1 and ranks in the sixth percentile of height for quarterbacks. He doesn't have prototypical arm strength. He spent two years as an anonymous passer at East Carolina before transferring to Washington State, where he excelled in his lone season in Pullman. His coach there was Mike Leach, who runs the Air Raid and doesn't think scouts are very smart.
Should the Jaguars tell Nick Foles he's going to be a backup when he comes back? No. It has been only three starts for Minshew, and there have been long stretches in those games where the Jags haven't been able to do anything on offense. They are also realistically committed to paying Foles at least $21.1 million after 2019, and Foles had thrown all of eight pass attempts as a Jaguars quarterback before breaking his collarbone. At the same time, the Jaguars clearly have something with Minshew. He's the best quarterback Jacksonville has drafted during the David Caldwell era.
The most common Coach of the Year candidates are coaches who take over a new team and lead them to a much-improved season during their debut. Well, seven NFL teams hired coaches from outside their organization this offseason. LaFleur's Packers are 3-1, and the other six teams are a combined 2-20-1. Welcome to the list, Matt!
I'm not sure I'd put LaFleur higher than third, though, because the offense he was brought in to revitalize is still struggling. The Packers are 16th in offensive DVOA after four weeks; it has been Mike Pettine's seventh-ranked defense propelling the Packers toward the top of the NFC North. Offensive coaches can win Coach of the Year while riding their back of their defense -- Matt Nagy won with the league's best defense and its 20th-ranked offense by DVOA last season -- but I want to see the offense take a step forward before I really get behind LaFleur as a candidate.
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Berry likes Allison vs. Cowboys
Matthew Berry expects Geronimo Allison to perform well in the Packers' Week 5 matchup vs. the Cowboys, especially if Davante Adams is out.
The changes to the offense haven't been quite as extreme as some might have expected. Rodgers has been under center more frequently in 2019, but after throwing 83.3% of his passes out of the pistol or shotgun in 2016-18, he has thrown passes out of similar spots 74.7% of the time so far. The former MVP has thrown downfield out of play-action from under center only 17 times through four games, and Rodgers has posted an 84.7 Total QBR on those throws.
I think we'll see the offense produce longer drives in the weeks to come, although losing receiver Davante Adams for some spell of time with turf toe will hurt. The Packers have converted only 30.6% of their third and fourth downs through four games, which ranks 29th in the league. They might also very well be 4-0 if it weren't for two drives against the Eagles stalling out inside the 5-yard line. LaFleur is the most likely of the new faces to win this award.
The Bills didn't come up with a victory over the Patriots in Week 4, but they were the most competitive team against New England this season by a significant margin. They're 3-1 with 36-year-old Frank Gore as their primary offensive weapon, with the future Hall of Famer responsible for more than 30% of the touches on offense.
Even after last weekend's loss to the Patriots, the Bills have a 54.1% chance of making it back to the postseason for the second time in three years under McDermott, according to the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI). I have big-picture concerns about second-year quarterback Josh Allen, but the Bills have built a good enough team to win without competent quarterback play.
Has there been a week over the past 15 years where anybody doubted Belichick was the best coach in football? Virtually every person who works inside the NFL or watches it closely would pick him as the league's best coach, and with that knowledge, he has won this award ... three times. It took 14-2 seasons in 2003 and 2010 and that famous 16-0 campaign from 2007 to earn Belichick this nod. Consider that 14-2 seasons weren't enough for him to win this award in 2004 (when it went to Marty Schottenheimer and the 12-4 Chargers) or 2016 (Jason Garrett's 13-3 season with the Cowboys).
Guess who's back? Even after a narrow victory over the Bills, the Patriots finished the first quarter of the season with the third-best point differential of any team since the 1970 merger at plus-95. It's coincidentally the best mark any team has posted since 2007, and you can probably guess who pulled off that feat. The Pats also face the league's easiest schedule over the remainder of the season. FPI projects the Patriots to win 13.1 games; if they top that total, I think it's about time for Belichick to win this award again.
Did anybody expect the Ravens to be third in offensive DVOA after the first month of the season? While a chunk of their performance is driven by their 59-point outburst against the Dolphins in Week 1, it's worth noting that the three other offenses that played the league's worst team all scored between 29 and 31 points. The Ravens doubled that mark, and that's with Lamar Jackson sitting out the fourth quarter and Baltimore choosing to kneel on the Miami 5-yard line late in the game.
The speculation that Jackson was going to be exposed to start the 2019 season is gone. The 2018 edition of Jackson, who averaged 17 rushes per start, was going to be difficult to sustain. This version is averaging a much more sustainable nine carries per game. He's also completing nearly 65% of his passes despite throwing his average pass 9.7 yards in the air, the fifth-longest average distance in the league. Jackson turned the ball over twice in September. Take running out of the equation and he's still the eighth-best passer in the league by Total QBR through the first month of the season.
Roman, who built offenses around Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco and then around Tyrod Taylor in Buffalo, was the ideal fit for Jackson in Baltimore. This is one of just 10 offenses since the merger to average 7.5 yards per pass attempt and 5.5 yards per rush attempt. Five of the other nine teams finished in the top six in points scored at the end of the season. Strangely, defense is the thing to be worried about in Baltimore.
Do you remember how bad the Bucs were on defense last season? They finished last in the league in DVOA. They allowed opposing quarterbacks to post a passer rating of 110.9, the same figure Russell Wilson posted on the other side of the ball. The Bucs posted the second-worst red zone defense since 2001. Oh, and star pass-rusher Jason Pierre-Paul went down during the offseason with a neck injury and hasn't played in 2019.
By points allowed, the Bucs haven't been significantly better, given that they rank 30th in points allowed per game. DVOA, though, pegs them as the seventh-best defense in the league. How does that work? For one, Jameis Winston has thrown three pick-sixes, which amounts to 21 points that have nothing to do with the defense. Tampa's defense has scored twice on its own and created nine takeaways, fourth in the league and more than half of its season-long total from 2018. The Bucs also have faced 46 drives through four games, the seventh most in the league, giving opposing offenses more chances to score.
I'm not sure this is going to be the seventh-best defense in football over the remainder of the season, but Bowles has managed to coax some upside out of this unit. Unsurprisingly from a Bowles defense, Tampa is blitzing a ton -- 41.8% of the time -- and allowing the league's 12th-fewest yards per dropback when it does. Tampa also leads the league in rush defense DVOA and yards per carry against.
It has to be Moore, right? Even after a rough night against the Saints in New Orleans, the Cowboys rank second in offensive DVOA and are virtually right in line with the Chiefs. This same core -- sans returning center Travis Frederick -- ranked 24th in offensive DVOA a year ago. As much as Ezekiel Elliott's role in the offense has been fetishized, his carries per game and yards per carry are both down. The offense has gotten significantly better as Elliott has played a smaller part.
Moore has been able to take Dak Prescott to a new level, and while Prescott has played his tail off through four weeks, the Cowboys have made it easier for their star quarterback to succeed. Dallas was 11th in play-action rate last season; this season, it is all the way up to third, and Prescott has a league-best 97.6 Total QBR on play-action passes. Of course, the fourth-year quarterback is a lowly second-best in the league when the Cowboys don't use play-action, too. We still have to see the Cowboys excel as their schedule gets tougher, but Moore is an easy pick here.
The track record of healthy tight ends making an impact during their age-35 seasons isn't exactly lengthy, as only six tight ends in league history have finished that year with 500 receiving yards or more. Things got more complicated when Walker went down in the opening week of 2018 because of a severe ankle injury, costing the former 49ers tight end the remainder of the season.
What did Walker do to announce his return? He caught two touchdown passes in a blowout victory over the Browns, of course. Walker is on pace for 68 catches and 648 receiving yards while playing just under half of Tennessee's offensive snaps. He has struggled at times because of a nagging knee issue, but for Walker to get back on the field -- let alone look like the tight end we saw before the injury -- is impressive.
Kupp suffered a pair of injuries to his knee in 2018, first tearing his MCL on a horse-collar tackle before tearing his ACL one month later. In his final four healthy, complete games during the 2018 season, he racked up 24 catches for 412 yards and five touchdowns. Over the first four weeks of the 2019 season, a returning Kupp has grabbed 32 passes for 388 yards and three scores.
There's not yet a 70-yard touchdown in the mix for Kupp like there was against the Vikings a year ago, but he has become a more integral part of the offense as the Rams move away from huge doses of Todd Gurley. Over 2017 and 2018, Kupp was targeted on 22.1% of his pass routes. So far in 2019, that's up to 28.4%, which ranks seventh among receivers with 100 or more routes run. Kupp, one of the few Rams' skill-position players still on a rookie deal, is in line to get a massive extension this offseason.
I don't think it's realistic to pick anybody else. Frederick's recovery from Guillain-Barré syndrome didn't have the familiar time frames and rehab markers that players can rely upon in recovering from broken bones and muscle tears. While athletes in other sports have suffered from the rare disorder, Frederick was the first prominent player to suffer from the ailment during an NFL career. The Cowboys initially believed he could come back quickly after being diagnosed last summer, but their star center ended up missing the entire season.
Thankfully, Frederick made his way back to the team and has been something close to his usual self during Dallas excellent start to the season. His pass block win rate is at 88.4%, which isn't far off from the 92.6% mark he posted during his last healthy season in 2017. The Cowboys' pivot also hasn't committed a penalty during the first four games.
It just so happens that all three of the acquisitions here are front-seven pieces. The Patriots seemed ready to wash their hands of Collins when they traded him to the Browns in 2016, with rumors suggesting he had a habit of freelancing to try and make plays. You can imagine that wouldn't go over well with the guy whose team motto is "Do Your Job." Collins signed a four-year, $50 million deal with the Browns, but he was playing as a strong-side linebacker and part-time player before the Browns cut him in March.
The Patriots signed Collins to a one-year, $2 million deal in May and found a motivated, talented player. He has been all over the place for the Patriots, but he has been most noticeable as a blitzer. The Pats have sent 39 blitzes this season, and Collins has been on the field for 30 of them. Belichick's defense hasn't pressured the opposing quarterback once across those other nine blitzes. He gives the Patriots an athletic linebacker at a fraction of his previous contract with the Browns.
Even before Matthews hit the market, I suggested that the Rams should make a move for Matthews. It was too good of a story, given that Matthews grew up in Southern California and walked on to the USC football team, where he played at the Coliseum. The Rams, of course, now play on the same field.
I wasn't surprised when Matthews signed a two-year, $9.3 million deal with the Rams. What has surprised me, though, is just how effective he has been since joining the team. In four games, he already has more sacks (five) than he did over the entirety of 2018 (3.5). One of those sacks was admittedly a play against the Panthers where Carolina just decided not to block him. My favorite play from his season so far actually wasn't a sack.
When the Browns were facing fourth-and-the-game against the Rams in Week 3, I thought Matthews' decisions on the edge were a reminder of his football IQ. Baker Mayfield had been bailing to the right under pressure throughout the game, so with Matthews lined up outside of the right tackle, it was going to be his job to contain. Watch the play and you'll see Matthews barely engage the right tackle, clearly waiting for Mayfield to bail. When the quarterback does, Matthews is in perfect position to chase him down and force a panicked throw, which ended up intercepted. Matthews struck the perfect balance between pass-rusher and spy on the play, and it helped the Rams to a road win.
I'm going to write about Barrett in the Defensive Player of the Year section. In short, the Bucs gave Barrett a one-year, $4 million deal and would have been thrilled if he responded with nine sacks and three forced fumbles. He has done that with 12 games to go.
I was in favor of this deal. The Jets needed to surround Sam Darnold with all the help he could get, and after adding guard Kelechi Osemele to their line on a salary dump from the Raiders, coaxing Kalil out of retirement made sense. New York gave the long-time Panthers standout a one-year, $8.4 million deal to end his brief retirement and immediately installed the 34-year-old as the starting center.
As is the case with most things related to the Jets this season, Kalil's tenure in green hasn't gone well. He has two penalties in three games after never topping three in a 16-game season. The Jets benched Kalil for a period during the Week 2 loss to the Browns. Coach Adam Gase has suggested that the Jets might make changes to their offensive line after returning from the bye, and while it's probably too early to give up on the five-time Pro Bowler, Kalil certainly hasn't helped what has been a dismal offensive line.
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Ekeler and Gordon can have big games vs. Denver
Mike Clay asserts that Chargers RBs Austin Ekeler and Melvin Gordon can both have high fantasy value against the Broncos' poor run defense.
If Gordon was trying to prove his value to the Chargers by expecting them to struggle in his absence, it didn't work. The Chargers went 2-2 without the running back in the lineup, and while Austin Ekeler averaged only 3.9 yards per carry, he was efficient and productive while shouldering a much larger workload. The relatively low yards per carry mark comes from Ekeler not breaking anything longer than a 19-yard run on his 56 carries; despite missing the team's best lineman in left tackle Russell Okung, Ekeler is posting a 52% success rate, which is 16th in the league. In 2018, Gordon's only season with above-average efficiency as a pro, he posted a success rate of ... 53%.
The evidence that the Chargers suffer with Gordon out of the lineup isn't really there. Since the start of his career, the Chargers have gone 26-29 (.472) and averaged 23.7 points on offense with him on the field. Without Gordon, meanwhile, they're 6-7 (.462) while averaging 22.9 points. He is a talented, versatile player, and you can understand why he wants to get paid. The difference between him and Ekeler, though, isn't worth the $11 million or so between Ekeler's contract and what Gordon reportedly wants as an average salary on a long-term deal.
This was all a big waste of time. The Steelers lost the least, since they ended up with two draft picks, but they were still stuck with $21.1 million in dead money on their cap for Brown in 2019. The Raiders paid a $1 million signing bonus for a player who didn't want to be in Oakland, although they probably made some of that money back in jersey sales. The Patriots paid about $100,000 for Brown's one game with the team, but given that it came against the Dolphins, I suspect they could have made do without the mercurial wideout.
The guy who lost the most, though, was AB himself. He forced his way out of his professional home in Pittsburgh. He did just enough to void $30 million in guaranteed money to leave the Raiders, and when it all seemed as if Brown had managed to end up in a better situation and had a shot at making more money with the Patriots, he cost himself that opportunity by sending threatening text messages to a woman who accused Brown of sexual assault. It's difficult to see a future in the league for Brown given his behavior on and off the field.
Best cornerback in football is always going to be an inexact science, but you can make a strong case for Tennessee's top corner through four weeks. Ryan has filled up the stat sheet, with 1.5 sacks, a tackle for loss, two interceptions and six pass deflections, with the latter figure tying for the league lead. With Ryan as its lead corner in the slot, Tennessee has allowed a passer rating of just 62.8 to slot targets this season, the second-best figure in the league.
Advanced metrics also love Ryan's play. The NFL's Next Gen Stats project that targets thrown at Ryan should have been completed 61.8% of the time. Instead, those passes have been completed just 46.2% of the time; the resulting 15.6% difference is the third best in football among corners with 100 snaps in coverage or more. There are plenty of corners who deserve recognition -- we've seen great quarter-seasons from the likes of Jaire Alexander, James Bradberry and Tre'Davious White -- but Ryan narrowly sneaks onto the list here.
The Patriots remain far enough ahead of the pack on defense that it seems impossible to leave their starters off this list entirely. Thankfully, there's one obvious candidate to sneak on -- the elder of New England's McCourty twins. The longtime Patriots stalwart has an interception in each of his first four games, making him the first player to pick off a pass in four straight games since the 2016 season.
I don't think McCourty is going to continue to intercept one pass per game -- his career record is seven, set when he was a cornerback in 2010 -- but he's still playing lights-out football even beyond the interceptions. It's impressive when you have more interceptions than catches allowed through one month of the season, and the Next Gen Stats peg McCourty as allowing three catches on eight targets for 40 yards through one month.
He's also second in the league among safeties in Ballhawk Rate -- which measures the percentage of snaps where a player deflects or intercepts a pass as the closest defender in coverage -- at 62.5%. The long-underrated McCourty has made just one Pro Bowl since that impressive rookie campaign. He should be in line for another nod.
Where on earth did this come from? Barrett, an undrafted free agent in 2014, was a breakout candidate years ago in Denver across from Von Miller, but when he got his chance to start in 2017 with Shane Ray going down, Barrett flopped. He racked up four sacks on 12 knockdowns while playing two-thirds of Denver's snaps, and the Broncos closed his path to the starting lineup by drafting Bradley Chubb after the season.
The Bucs signed Barrett to a one-year, $4 million deal this offseason. His numbers so far are unreal. He has nine sacks, three forced fumbles, seven tackles for loss, two pass breakups and an interception of Jared Goff. To put that in context, since the league started counting sacks as an official stat, no player in history has topped nine sacks over his first four games. Barrett is tied with Mark Gastineau (who finished his season with 22 sacks), Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (13.5), and Kevin Greene (15).
Those three totals tell you Barrett is probably not going to stay on this pace and end up with 36 sacks. The 26-year-old only has 10 quarterback hits, which we would typically associate with a sack total somewhere closer to half of his actual output. He has racked up a couple of coverage sacks and had one in which the 49ers essentially decided not to block him and paid the price almost immediately.
You know what, though? Every pass-rusher has sacks like that, and Barrett has come across the majority of them by beating opposing tackles. He's hardly a one-trick pony, either; watch the spin move he put on Rob Havenstein to set up Ndamukong Suh's game-sealing touchdown against the Rams. Barrett's four sacks against the Giants all came in different ways.
Let's say he retreats to his old self and his previously established level of play from Denver over the remaining 12 games of the season. He would finish the year with 11.5 sacks and 17 knockdowns, numbers the Buccaneers would have been delighted to see for how much they paid. That sort of production also would get him a big deal in free agency (or the minimum of a franchise tag) next offseason.
There's little on the tape to suggest Barrett is supremely lucky or a gimmick, either. He might not get the same level of production over the remainder of the season, but he's playing like a superstar. He's the biggest reason the Bucs have finally looked competent on defense for the first time in years.
Offensive Player of the Year
The NFL seems to oscillate between using this award to honor the best non-quarterback and to reiterate its support for the quarterback who ends up winning MVP. It's more interesting to use it as the former, so I'll do that here.
One of the rare trendy breakout picks before a season who actually proceeds to live up to lofty expectations, Godwin has become a critical component of a surprisingly effective Bucs offense. The third-year wideout is third in the league in receiving yards and ninth in yards per target, and has turned nearly 70% of his touches into first downs or touchdowns, which leads all receivers who have run 100 or more routes.
His scores have been hugely important, too; Godwin racked up one of only two touchdowns in Tampa's 20-14 win over the Panthers in Week 2, then added two more in the 55-40 shootout victory over the Rams. The last little improvement: Godwin hasn't fumbled once after fumbling four times last season. He's in the discussion for best slot receiver in football alongside a fellow 2017 third-rounder, Cooper Kupp.
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Clay: Expect good WR2 numbers out of Godwin
Mike Clay categorizes Chris Godwin as a bit of a "boom-bust" through four weeks, but expects him to give fantasy managers good WR2 numbers vs. the Saints.
The league's leading receiver by nearly 70 yards, Allen has kept the Chargers afloat single-handedly at times. It would be one thing if he had inflated his statistics with a huge game against the Dolphins last week, but after racking up 404 yards and three touchdowns over the first three weeks, Allen took it easy with five catches and 48 yards against Miami. The Chargers would be absolutely lost without him.
Can you imagine, though, what the Panthers would look like without their star halfback? McCaffrey's backups are fifth-round pick Jordan Scarlett and 2018 practice-squadder Reggie Bonnafon, who have combined for a total of two career touches. McCaffrey has played every one of Carolina's offensive snaps this season and has logged 111 touches, 19 more than any other player through four weeks.
McCaffrey has been more of a home run hitter as a runner -- he's 28th out of 36 qualifying backs in success rate as a rusher this season -- but he has been efficient while maintaining a significant workload as a receiver. McCaffrey already has 31 targets, which puts him on pace to become the first back in NFL history with 120-plus targets in consecutive seasons. McCaffrey is 11th in receiving DVOA among backs, suggesting that he's creating value even while assuming his workload. He also leads the league in first downs, landing one ahead of Ekeler.
Realistically, there are two tiers of MVP candidates right now. I see two guys at the top and a drop-off before a group of three quarterbacks in the second tier. Wilson is the best option in that second tier, just ahead of Lamar Jackson and Tom Brady. I'd consider Shaq Barrett given just how far ahead he is of the league's other pass-rushers in sacks, but I still think these quarterbacks have had a larger impact on their team's success than any pass-rusher.
Wilson is doing what he typically does: excel despite little help from anybody around him. He is the fifth-most pressured quarterback in football at 32.2%. His offensive coordinator's obsession with running the football on early downs has left him needing an average of 8.9 yards to convert when he throws on third down, the eighth-longest distance in the league. His primary receivers are Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Will Dissly and Jaron Brown. It's never easy for Wilson.
And yet, he's excelling. NFL Next Gen Stats say that Wilson's range of passes should have resulted in a completion percentage of 62.9%. Wilson instead leads the league with a 72.9% completion rate, and the even gap of 10% between his expected completion rate and his actual rate is the largest for any quarterback with 100 pass attempts or more. Prescott is at 9.2%, and no other quarterback is even 5% above his expectation. The Super Bowl winner hasn't thrown an interception in 133 attempts and has lost just one fumble, with that coming on an aborted snap.
The only reason I wouldn't put Wilson higher is context. His most productive game of the season came against the Saints, when he threw for 406 yards and two touchdowns and then added two more scores on the ground. Most of that production came in the fourth quarter with the Seahawks down multiple scores. Wilson went 16-of-25 for 213 yards with two rushing touchdowns and a passing touchdown, and while the final score was 33-27, it took a touchdown with all zeros on the clock to get the Seahawks within a TD. It's going to be a tragedy if we don't get to see a season in which the Seahawks actually unleash Wilson as a passer and runner while he's still in his prime.
I had Prescott as my MVP pick after three weeks, but a 22-of-33 for 223-yard performance in his first game against a competent defense soured me a bit on nominating Prescott as my top choice. Some of Dallas' issues against the Saints weren't Dak's fault, notably the two fumbles, but the Cowboys weren't able to strike for a big play against a defense that has historically been susceptible to throws downfield.
I mentioned how Prescott has blown away his expected completion percentage, and it's staggering, actually. Prescott is averaging just over 10 air yards per pass attempt this season, which is third-most in the NFL behind Matthew Stafford and Jameis Winston. Over the past decade, we've seen 19 instances of a starting quarterback averaging 10 or more air yards per pass in a season. Only one of those passers -- Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2018 -- has completed more than 65% of his passes in such an offense. Prescott is at 72.4%.
The difference between Prescott and the quarterback at the top of this list is turnovers. Prescott has three interceptions, although he hasn't fumbled after leading the league with 12 fumbles a year ago. The guy in first place has zero interceptions, which makes him hard to top given his ability to do just about whatever he wants on a football field.
No, MVPs do not often repeat. Just three players have won back-to-back MVP awards: Joe Montana, Brett Favre, and most recently Peyton Manning, who took home his third and fourth nods for the 2008 and 2009 seasons. Mahomes might be the natural successor to Montana and Favre, so a second consecutive award isn't out of his range.
The best MVP candidates have a winning record and are the best fantasy player at their position. Mahomes' Chiefs are 4-0 after their star quarterback led them on a 13-play drive with 2:20 to go to take the lead over the Lions last week. With the Ravens breathing down Kansas City's neck down 33-28 with two minutes to go, Mahomes calmly took the ball and picked up a third-and-9 to Darrel Williams to end the game.
His numbers are predictably gaudy. Mahomes is completing nearly 68% of his passes while throwing the ball 9.2 yards in the air. He has a great set of weapons when healthy, but thanks to injuries, Mahomes has been forced to complete passes to 14 different receivers in 2019, which is tied for the league lead. He has become virtually unsackable, as he has been taken down on just 1.6% of his dropbacks. He has thrown for 10 touchdowns without an interception. Mahomes hasn't taken a huge leap forward in 2019, but given that his baseline in 2018 was the best player in football, improving at all is unbelievable.
Mahomes is on pace for the first 6,000-yard season in NFL history. If he gets there, I don't see any way to vote against him as a repeat MVP. Even if he doesn't, Mahomes is a viable option given his team's desire to throw. Over his past 16 starts, Mahomes has completed nearly 67% of his passes, topped 9 yards per attempt, and thrown for 54 touchdowns against 12 picks. He's redefining our expectations of what's possible from an NFL quarterback. It's only fair that he simultaneously redefines our established historical preferences for who wins MVP.
James Harden is the most innovative player of this revolutionary NBA era. Every season, he adds bells and whistles to his game that make him more difficult to stop. Harden has leveraged his incredible arsenal of off-the-bounce moves to become the league's most effective isolation guru. But what will he add this season?
In August, we got a clue: an enticing preview clip of Harden breaking down his defender before suddenly taking some newfangled kind of running, one-legged corner 3:
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0:20
Harden shows off a new move
James Harden sidesteps and hits a one-legged 3 during a summer pickup game.
What in the world was that?
Then he did it again versus the Shanghai Sharks on Tuesday:
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Harden shows off new move
James Harden shows off his new move, a running 3-pointer on one foot.
For any other player, this would be a bizarre shot. For Harden, it's just a logical extension of his game. Last year he exploited his step-back moves to an unprecedented level, shattering unassisted 3-point records in the process. If anyone can normalize a one-legged 3, it's Harden.
Nobody in the history of the NBA has turned perimeter isolations into 3-point attempts as frequently as Harden did last season. Stephen Curry deserves credit for showing the world just how effective off-the-dribble 3s can be, but Harden took notes and raised this skill to another level. In 2018-19, he became the all-time leader in unassisted 3s ... at age 29.
Looking at the past six years of Harden's data, we see wild increases in both unassisted 3s and isolations:
That's intentional. These elements have become a massive part of his game. But how much further can he take this heroic isolation wave?
On Harden Island
Last season, Harden launched more than twice as many unassisted 3s as Kemba Walker, who ranked second in the league with 439 attempts, according to Second Spectrum tracking data. How? It's all about the isolations.
The numbers are absurd. Harden averaged an incredible 19.8 isos per game. Going back to 2013-14, only two teams have averaged more than 20 isolations per game: Harden's Rockets in 2017-18 (22.2) and 2018-19 (30.0). Since the NBA adopted tracking stats leaguewide in 2013-14, no player had ever logged more than 900 isolations in a single season -- until last season when Harden had a cool 1,548.
We're watching the reboot of hero ball, folks. And with Harden at the controls, Mike D'Antoni engineering the sets and Daryl Morey tracking the efficiency metrics. Houston's version should be more aptly called superhero ball. This isn't Carmelo Anthony dribbling into countless ill-advised midrange shots, because Harden's all-world abilities pass the efficiency test with flying colors. His isos are among the most effective half-court actions in a copycat league that increasingly draws inspiration from Space City.
Last year, Houston's offense ranked third in the league by averaging 1.01 points per non-transition chance. But Harden's isos yielded 1.11 per chance, per Second Spectrum data. These plays are some of the best half-court choices readily available to any team in the NBA. The Rockets would be foolish not to cash in on them.
As Tom Ziller pointed out last spring, with NBA defenses switching more and more assignments, hunting and isolating mismatches on the perimeter has become a core strategy in the half court. This tactic is reviving the isolation-heavy aesthetic that fell out of fashion earlier this decade, when analytics revealed its inefficiency. Movement-oriented offenses in San Antonio and Golden State harvested efficiency in ways that iso-scorers like Kobe Bryant and Allen Iverson never could.
Yet Morey and D'Antoni have turned their backs on the egalitarian motion offenses made popular by Gregg Popovich and Steve Kerr. Instead, they've launched a countertrend relying on a simpler attack, featuring their bearded superstar on an island at the top of the arc torching fools in isolation. Unlike early practitioners of hero ball, Harden's game is analytically calibrated. His shot diet is cleaner than Bryant's was, and he gets to the line as much as a prime Shaquille O'Neal.
Still, no other current superstar is expected to outwit individual defenders nearly as often as Harden. In turn, no other player is as motivated to add new gimmicks to his arsenal.
The one-legged math
Which brings us back to that running 3-point shot. It makes perfect sense for Harden to keep finding new ways to create 3s off the dribble, especially when you study the numbers.
Why? Let's start with the shots. After all, 70% of Harden's isos end with him firing away. That's why his footwork is so vital and why that viral clip of his new-look runner is so interesting.
Harden's off-the-bounce jumpers all start with choreography. A quintessential Harden iso is about dribbling and jabbing and trying to create even the slightest imbalance in his defender. Per NBA tracking data, Harden was the only player in the league to dribble more than 500 times per game last season. While most players use their dribbles to get from point A to point B, Harden uses his as a means to destroy his defender's balance. As soon as Harden gets his man to lean just a bit too much, he either surges past him on a drive to the rack or he shuffles into ample space to launch a step-back 3.
Defending Harden is a pick-your-poison affair: overplay the step-back and he'll drive right by you; overplay the drive and he'll launch a jumper. The problem for defenders is that both options are very effective. He is by far the most prolific half-court scorer in the game because of that combination of drives and step-backs:
From a volume standpoint, he's clearly on another level, but this efficiency isn't bad either. That 1.16 points per step-back is a gold mine in the context of half-court sets. Keep in mind the average non-transition shot in the NBA yielded just 1.04 points last season, and 99% of Harden's step-back 3s occurred in such situations.
Harden's 613 step-back 3s last season helped prove that Houston loves to arbitrage offensive efficiency in ways no other team can or will. That's why we should expect even more of them this season. It's also why his one-legged J could be game-changing, even if he breaks it out only occasionally.
The move allows Harden to generate shooting space in new directions, depending on how his defender is shading him. It could represent a new way for the Rockets to extract even more efficiency from the mineral-rich mines of Harden Island. He no longer needs to take the time to gather, and the set up breeds unpredictability. If he's now a threat to pull up off one leg on the move, how are you supposed to contest that and take away a path to the rim? Good luck.
Folks, here's the scary part: Harden is only getting started. He just turned 30 this summer, and there's still room for him to grow. We could see 25-30 Harden isos per game this season, and a few hundred more unassisted 3-point tries. Why not? Russell Westbrook will get his touches, but unless the Rockets feature Russ a lot more than they featured Chris Paul, it's hard to imagine Houston looking at these half-court numbers and doing anything other than having Harden do more work.
Superhero ball and the postseason
If superstar NBA ball handlers can effectively create and make hundreds of unassisted 3s, there's no reason to expect anything other than a massive isolation explosion. We're already seeing hints of it with Luka Doncic. And once again, Houston is ahead of the curve.
An average Rockets game has become a recital of superhero ball as Harden hunts and pecks at targeted defenders each trip down the floor. As a result, by the end of the 2018-19 season, Harden had become the most used and most unusual superstar in the league, racking up the wildest totals we've seen in a long time.
Check out this ridiculous list of stats Harden led the NBA in last season: field goals attempted, field goals made, points, usage rate, win shares, free throws attempted, free throws made, 3-pointers attempted, 3-pointers made, direct picks, dribbles, drives, isolations and turnovers.
Skeptics will argue that these are merely impressive regular-season numbers in a system that isn't built for postseason basketball. The Western Conference playoffs almost always include eight strong teams, making it fair to question whether the same approach that destroys Charlotte in March can get four wins in a series against the Utah Jazz in May.
That's the big question for the Rockets this season: Can they finally get over the hump? As coaches study opponents, research matchups and calibrate defensive coverages, points get harder to come by and adjustments become paramount. We saw it last season when Nick Nurse put Kawhi Leonard on Giannis Antetokounmpo and completely changed the Eastern Conference finals.
If there's a glaring weakness in Houston's résumé, it's that the Rockets have yet to solve their playoff riddles. In 2017, they looked listless against the Spurs. In 2018, they went ice cold in their biggest game. In 2019, they couldn't match the firepower of Golden State.
Harden's solo work is key here, too. Last year, isolations jumped leaguewide from 13.9 occurrences per 100 possessions in the regular season to 18.9 in the postseason, per Second Spectrum tracking. And Harden gets just slightly worse at this important play, dropping from 1.08 points per half-court iso chance in the regular season to 1.02 in the playoffs over the past three seasons. Still a very good number ... but when you run more than 27 isos per 100 possessions, that dip matters.
Maybe this new move helps his postseason efficiency. Maybe Westbrook giving Harden spells running the offense conserves his energy. Or maybe Houston falls short again.
If they don't write a different story in the 2020 playoffs, D'Antoni might be gone and the narrative around this group will be more Dan Marino than Joe Montana. But the West is wide open. Harden is in his prime. D'Antoni is in a contract year. And the Rockets will go as far as superhero ball takes them.
SIX GAMES? Shane Greene thinks for a moment before nodding. Yeah, that sounds about right: After six games in a Braves uniform, he'd seen all he needed to see. Over those six games, Greene watched in silent awe from a bullpen bench in Cincinnati and Minneapolis and Miami as 21-year-old Ronald Acuna Jr. played the game in a way Greene couldn't believe was possible. When Acuna wasn't hitting homers, he was leaping fences to rob them. When he wasn't stealing bases, he was using his arm to deny them. The results were one thing; the style was another. Acuna plays a burdensome game -- The Game of Failure™, according to every baseball guy ever -- with a lightness that borders on mirth. Greene kept sneaking looks at the teammates sitting around him. They were mostly unmoved. What Greene considered astonishing, the rest of them -- those who had seen it all and more -- viewed with knowing indifference.
Greene was the new guy, and part of being the new guy meant "keeping my mouth shut and observing," he says. So he observed Acuna in a way that became more granular with each day. He marveled at the way Acuna stands in the batter's box, holding his hands out in front of his body like a dare, bat perpendicular to the ground as if he's unsure about the point of the whole enterprise. The languid approach seems designed to convince the pitcher he might be able to get it past him before he notices it's been thrown.
"And then," Greene says, "here come maybe the fastest hands I've ever seen."
He watched Acuna hit a walk-off two-run single to rescue Greene's blown save on Aug. 3. He saw three hits, four runs scored and a homer three days later, a homer the day after that, and two homers and four RBIs the day after that.
He watched Acuna steal bases and hit homers at a rate that could have made him just the fifth -- and youngest -- 40-40 player in history if a groin injury hadn't ended his regular season with six games to go. He led the National League in runs scored (127) and stolen bases (37). He hit 41 homers. He is expected to play in the National League Division Series against the Cardinals, and there's no way to overstate his importance to the Braves' October chances.
At some point during that sixth game, after Acuna had done something Greene can't remember -- "There's no telling, really; it could have been anything" -- Greene discovered that six games was as long as he could hold it in. The statute of limitations on keeping his mouth shut and his eyes open had expired, and so he just sat there in the bullpen and blurted it out:
"That's the best player who's ever lived."
To Greene, it seemed obvious. He'd never seen anything like Acuna -- "a freak player, a once-in-a-lifetime player" -- and every time he looked at him, one fact kept running through his head like a news crawl: He's 21 years old. Granted, Greene doesn't watch baseball unless he's playing it, and yes, he's not only aware of Mike Trout but has a record (two homers allowed in three official Trout at-bats) to prove it. But he's not some wide-eyed fan; he's been in the big leagues for six seasons, and his eyes told him he was seeing something his brain could barely imagine.
The boys in the bullpen laughed. Not a mocking laugh; more of an easy there, new guy kind of laugh. Everybody laughed but Greene, who cocked his head a bit and refused to retract his proclamation. And then the next night Acuna hit another homer, and the boys in the bullpen looked at Greene and said, "Best ever." And it was still a bit of a joke, to be honest, but the next night Acuna hit two homers among his three hits and by then best ever had become A Thing. Each time, Greene nodded at his bullpen mates with a prove-me-wrong look and the chorus started again:
Best ever
Best ever
Delivered with a nod, though, and not a laugh.
Over time, with each passing homer or throw or over-the-wall catch, the refrain began to sound less sarcastic and more reverent.
"At first we thought it was kind of funny," reliever Jerry Blevins says. "As time wore on, though, we were like, 'Well, yeah -- Shane's probably right.'"
THREE HOURS, 58 MINUTES before a mid-September game in Philadelphia, Acuna sits at his locker, wearing his glove, examining it from all angles, tightening a few strings here and there, occasionally smacking his right hand into the sweet spot. The news here isn't so much what Acuna is doing but where and when: out in the open and during the one-hour window the media are allowed in the clubhouse.
There are unwritten rules scattered all over baseball, including in the clubhouse, where the best players usually disappear once the doors open to the media. It's not always personal; if you're a star-level player, your presence at your locker engenders excitement in people who want to stick a microphone in your face and ask you non-questions that are intended to simply make you talk. You are told to talk about in a way that can make you feel like a pull-string doll.
But Acuna, among the handful of best players in the game currently and perhaps historically, sits at his locker, unbothered, confident that no one in the room will ask him to talk about anything since none of them -- present company included, sadly -- can talk about anything of substance in his language.
"A superstar, just sitting there by himself," a Braves PR guy says. "It's kind of crazy."
The best approach, to steal from Greene, is to shut up and observe.
THERE IS A moment in every game in which Acuna announces himself. Three hours, 58 minutes after he sat at his locker examining his glove, he led off the game against Phillies left-hander Drew Smyly and reached on an error, then stole second and third. An Ozzie Albies ground ball later, the Braves were up 1-0.
In the sixth, with his team down 5-4, he ranged from his spot in center field to the wall in right-center and leaped to steal an extra-base hit from Jose Pirela. An inning later, he stood at the plate and watched a Blake Parker curveball parachute its way toward the plate, appearing wholly uninterested in the first 40 feet of the pitch. But then the swing started, originating several strata below the batter's box and rumbling upward. The hands -- the hands Acuna describes only as "something some people have and some do not" -- send the bat to the ball and the bat sends the ball more than 400 feet, over the center-field fence.
"That swing? That swing is not typical," says reliever Mark Melancon. "The optics are different. You have a lot of guys who can hit a deep home run, but the way he does it -- so quick, so late. He waits beyond what you think could be possible before he swings, and it looks like the bat is a toothpick."
Melancon looks off into the distance and shakes his head. "I mean -- he's 21," he says. "I have to keep reminding myself of that. I don't think I've ever played with a 21-year-old before."
Acuna's age is evident only in his face: rounded and boyish, the slightly chubby cheeks at odds with the rest of him. He smiles a lot and plays with a joy that can be interpreted and misinterpreted in all the traditional ways: showboating, cockiness, immaturity. He's been criticized for slow home run trots, for being overly pleased with himself after fantastic catches, even for wearing too much jewelry. In the occasional bout of accuracy, his style has been attributed to its primary source: the simple joy of a 21-year-old playing a difficult game exceedingly well.
"As a little kid, ever since I told my parents I want to play baseball, I feel like I've had a joy for the game," Acuna says through an interpreter. "Everyone has their own style of living, and to each his own. The way I play, I go out there to enjoy myself and I do it with the utmost respect, not meaning to offend or disrespect anyone on the other team. I do it out of love for the game."
The three of us -- Acuna, Franco the interpreter, me -- are standing in the middle of the visitors locker room on a Saturday afternoon at Nationals Park. Players filter past, excusing themselves as we succeed in conducting an interview in the most awkward way possible. I ask Acuna if he'd heard that Greene had proclaimed him best ever, and as the words are relayed to him he laughs sheepishly and says, "Comments like that motivate me to work harder and stay humble. I wouldn't say I'm the best, but I practice and train to be the best."
The Braves, who won 97 games and their second straight NL East title, are a fascinating mix. There's 22-year-old Albies, who led the NL in hits and doubles and plays with the same theatrical flair as his closest friend on the team, Acuna, snatching popups out of the air as if their very existence disgusts him. There's 22-year-old starting pitcher Mike Soroka, who had a 1.09 WHIP, led the NL in fewest homers allowed per nine innings and led all big league pitchers with a 1.35 ERA on the road. Josh Donaldson, gray edging in at the temples, hit 37 homers at 33. Left fielder Nick Markakis is 35, as is catcher Brian McCann. Are they too young, too old or just right?
"The theme here? Go out there, be yourself and play baseball," infielder Charlie Culberson says. "If you start trying to change who people are as individuals, you can change who you are as a team."
In a locker across the room from Acuna, sandwiched between understated superstar Freddie Freeman and Donaldson, is McCann. For much of the past decade, McCann has earned a reputation as the man who regulates fun on the baseball field. He was there when Carlos Gomez got a little too much enjoyment out of pimping a slow jog around the bases. He was there when Jose Fernandez held his home run pose a beat too long. As a result, his angry visage has been photoshopped into every possible sports celebration since the invention of photography.
To be fair: McCann hasn't done it for a while. (Acuna was 15 when McCann and Gomez had their moment.) Age and the game's evolution seem to have eroded some of the granite from his jaw. He is soft-spoken -- almost shy -- and effusive in his praise of Acuna.
"He loves the game and loves to have fun," McCann says. "You can see that; he's a fun guy, and he does all the right things. I'm a big fan of his."
"Has Acuna changed your attitude?"
"Around here we try to win every day," he says, "and we have 25 guys trying to do that."
He looks up and smiles. The line of questioning has failed. He shrugs, and his eyes say: Live and let live.
PRESIDING OVER ALL this young talent and veteran wisdom is manager Brian Snitker, a 63-year-old baseball man who looks like a hard-line high school PE teacher and football coach. Snitker is plainspoken and free of pretense. After games on the road, he stands in his office against a white cinder block wall that's been adorned with a plastic Braves logo tarp. He takes off his cap for the interviews, presumably because he is inside and that's the polite thing to do, exposing a bald head and an equatorial forehead dent like a flood line on the wall of a building. Cameras press in, and the lights bear down. He looks as if he should be holding up a newspaper displaying the day's date.
Acuna's baseball life couldn't be more different from Snitker's. One was elevated to the big leagues at 20 after 236 minor league games, and that was probably too many. The other gritted and ground his way through 36 years in the minor leagues, just four as a player before beginning his minor league managing career at 26 in the subterranean levels of the Braves' system. A certain kind of 26-year-old baseball man became a manager in 1982: one dedicated to teaching young guys how to play the game a certain way -- The Right Way -- and willing to subjugate his ego for the cause. There was a near lifetime of Travelodges and Days Inns and countless speeches about paying dues behind Snitker when by clubhouse demand he was hired permanently after finishing the 2016 season as the interim manager.
"I tell everybody, 'I'm going to treat you fair, but I'm not going to treat you the same,'" Snitker says. "I'm not going to treat Ronald the same way I treat Josh Donaldson. The experience and the age difference warrant that. We rush these guys through the minor leagues so quickly, and they don't stay anywhere long enough to learn. Before, they knew the ropes and how you probably should just sit in the back and be seen and not heard for a while. That's not so much the case anymore."
The styles have clashed. On Aug. 18 against the Dodgers in Atlanta, Snitker benched Acuna after he admired a long fly ball to right that turned into an epic single instead of a home run. Snitker was characteristically direct with his explanation ("You've got to run," he said) and equally direct when I asked him if he risked losing Acuna with such a public denunciation.
"If you lose a kid because of something like that," he says, "then he probably wasn't what you thought he was in the first place."
The game is defined by the struggle, and there are those within it who feel duty-bound to impose its burden on those who appear immune. Men, for instance, who were hired as minor league managers at 26 years old to dispense the game's hard truths and pass down its articles of faith. Snitker watches this game now -- his game -- and sees Acuna flipping his bat like a baton and Albies catching popups like they're insults and Donaldson prancing through the dugout carrying an umbrella after a homer to animate his nickname (Bringer of Rain). It's a whole different world out there, wild and raucous, and who is left to stand in its way?
"I'm looking at all this, and I started thinking: I've gotten to where I can't wait to get to the ballpark," Snitker says. "These guys keep me young. During games I look up and see Josh with the umbrella. I see guys going through the conga line and doing the dances. I look down and think I'm in the dugout with an American Legion team the way they're carrying on.
"There are some things that used to drive me crazy that I'm OK with now. I've reached the point where I see something and think, 'Why the hell am I worrying about this? It ain't that big of a deal.'"
Gradually, joy is winning. Snitker has thoughts about the game and how it should be played, and those thoughts will never change. They're rooted in those years of struggle and persistence. The Game of Failure™ embeds in the brain, and the burden is heavy.
But as he's sitting in the visitors dugout in Washington before the Braves' 149th game of the season, he throws his hands up in surrender. All those years of bus rides and one-star motels go up in the air with them. He takes his cap off and rubs a hand over his bald head. "You know -- shame on me," he says. "You grow up with all this stuff being starched into the game, and now I'm looking at them and thinking, 'Oh, what the hell. It ain't changing because of me, so why not let 'em go?'"
Acuna will go: deep into gaps and over walls to catch whatever's hit; from first to second or second to third even if they know he's stealing; around the bases after homers, always at his own pace. So why not let him go, along with his joy, and see where he ends up? Maybe it'll be a place no one's gone before.
Steve Smythe takes an in-depth statistical look at the track record of the world 200m champion
Dina Asher-Smith made the final in Doha to become Britain’s most successful women’s 100m runner in world championships history, going on to secure silver, and then went even better in the 200m final to become Britain’s first ever women’s sprint gold medallist (and only seventh at any event).
Statistically she is already a class apart at the age of just 23. After Doha, the average of her 10 fastest 100m races is now 10.895, while no other British woman has run faster than 11.05.
At 200m, Kathy Cook, the previous UK record-holder and world medallist, has a PB (22.10) which is marginally faster than the Blackheath and Bromley Harrier’s top 10 average of 22.107.
Major championships and international record
2011: SIAB U17 International 200m gold; Commonwealth Youth Games 200m gold & 4x100m gold
2012: IAAF World Junior Championships 200m 7th
2013: IAAF World Championships 4x100m bronze; European Junior Championships 200m gold & 4x100m relay gold
2014: IAAF World Junior Championships 100m gold
2015: IAAF World Championships 200m 5th & 4x100m 4th
2016: Olympic Games 200m 5th & 4x100m bronze; European Championships 200m gold & 4x100m silver
2017: IAAF World Championships 200m 4th & 4x100m silver
2018: Commonwealth Games 200m bronze & 4x100m gold; European Championships 100m gold, 200m gold & 4x100m gold
2019: IAAF World Championships 200m gold & 100m silver
10.83/0.1 – 2 Doha, September 29 2018 While unable to match all-time great Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce’s 10.71, a comfortable second and British record.
10.85/0.0 – 1 Berlin, August 7 2018 Won the European title in a world-leading British record from German Gina Luckenkemper’s 10.98.
10.87/0.5 – 1s2 Doha, September 29 2018
Two hours before her Doha final, ran an impressive warm-up, finishing well clear of Jonielle Smith’s 11.06.
10.88/-0.3 – 1 Brussels, September 6 2019
A clear win in the Diamond League final ahead of 2012 Olympic champion Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce’s 10.95.
10.91/0.2 – 2 Lausanne, July 5 2019
A fast time but a long way behind Fraser-Pryce’s stunning 10.74.
10.91/0.5 – 1h2 London, July 21 2019
An impressive heat ahead of Marie Josee Ta Lou’s 10.96.
10.92/1.6 – 2 Oslo, June 7 2018
A narrow loss to Murielle Ahoure’s 10.91 but there was another British record.
10.92/0.7 – 2 London, July 21 2019
Not as fast or impressive as the heat and over a metre down on Fraser-Pryce’s 10.78.
10.93/-0.1 – 1 Stockholm, June 10 2018
A metre win over Ahoure’s 11.03.
10.93/0.2 – 1s1 Berlin, August 7 2018
Saving herself for the final, this was an eased back win over Luckenkemper’s 10.98.
10.94/0.6 – 2 Rome, June 6 2019
The 2016 Olympic champion Elaine Thompson enjoyed a narrow win in 10.89.
10.96/-0.9 – 1 Birmingham, August 24 2019
Considering the headwind, this British Championships win was worth more, leaving Asha Philip three metres back in 11.29.
10.96/-0.1 – 1h4 Doha, September 28 2019 Probably her easiest ever sub-11 as she won her heat by over two metres from English Gardner (11.20).
200m best results (legal)
Top 10 average: 22.107
21.88/0.9 – 1 Doha, October 2 2019 With the pressure of being a huge favourite, she sped to a British record with her greatest ever run at the best ever time. Brittany Brown was a distant second in a PB 22.12.
21.89/0.2 – 1 Berlin, August 11 2018
A world-leading British record (and the only sub 22 so far) two metres up on world champion Dafne Schippers’ 22.14.
22.07/0.2 – 5 Beijing, August 28 2015
A British record but well beaten in an extraordinary race won by Schippers’ European record 21.63.
22.08/-0.4 – 2 Zürich, August 29 2019
Three metres down in the Diamond League final on Shaunae Miller-Uibo’s 21.74.
22.12/-0.1 – 1s3 Beijing, August 27 2015
A British under-23 record and the fastest semi of three hinted at a medal that wasn’t to be.
22.16/0.5 – 1s3 Doha, October 1 2019
A win so easy (four metres up on Dezerea Bryant’s 22.56) and controlled that the final almost looked a formality.
22.18/1.3 – 1 Stockholm, May 30 2019
A world lead at the time in cool conditions and five metres up on Olympic champion Thompson.
22.22/0.4 – 1h7 Beijing, August 26 2015
Just as in the semi-finals, easily the fastest as no one else ran quicker than 22.45 (Candyce McGrone) in the seven heats.
22.22/0.8 – 4 London, August 11 2017
Going into the championships with a mere 22.89 season’s best after suffering a broken foot, she raced herself fitter but was pipped by Miller-Uibo for bronze as Schippers won in 22.05.
22.25/0.9 – 4 London, July 22 2018
A close race saw two metres between first (Jenna Prandini 22.16) and seventh (Schippers).
22.26/1.1 – 1 Doha, May 3 2019
A great season opener was a world lead and saw her win by six metres over Jamile Samuel’s 22.90.
22.29/0.9 – 3 Gold Coast, April 12 2018
Narrowly beat the Olympic champion Thompson but finished third as Miller-Uibo powered to Commonwealth gold in 22.09.
Asher-Smith also forms part of the GB 4x100m relay squad in Doha, with the heats taking place on Friday evening and the final on Saturday night.
Read our report on her world 200m title win here, while the October 10 edition of AW will include further coverage.
European pairing of Tristian Flore and Laura Gasnier enjoyed the comforts of being the host continent as they sped to victory against Thailand’s Suthasini Sewettabut and Padak Tanviriyavechakul (11-8, 11-4, 11-5). The French duo were very clinical in their performance, a quality embodied by the Chinese athletes on table 2.
Up against the in-form Hong Kong duo Wong Chun Ting and Doo Hoi Kem, China’s Lin Gaoyuan and Wang Manyu wrapped up a 3-0 win in almost 21 minutes. While losing 0-2 and ahead by 8-7 in the final game, Wong & Doo attempted timed Time Out only delayed the inevitable by saving a match point at 10-8, and then losing the match 11-9.
Players to the tables
The time for the main event to commence has arrived – here’s a look at the day’s schedule:
Most rugby players are desperate to get on the flight which takes them to the World Cup, but Wales lock Adam Beard is glad he missed his.
Beard was taken ill at Heathrow as Wales waited to board their flight to Japan, and within hours was undergoing keyhole surgery in Cardiff to remove an inflamed appendix.
Speaking 12 days after rejoining the squad in Japan, the 23-year-old Osprey reflected on his rehabilitation and narrowly avoiding a potential mid-air emergency at 35,000ft.
Beard has not played yet and may not be fit for unbeaten Wales' third Pool D match against Fiji on 9 October, but he is not feeling sorry for himself.
"It was lucky I didn't get on the plane," he said.
"That could have been dangerous. The doctors were all saying that. They were saying they would probably have had to get the plane to make an emergency landing."
Beard had been struggling with stomach pains before Wales team doctor Geoff Davies advised him to go to hospital.
"We were travelling as a squad up to Heathrow and my stomach was getting more painful," added Beard.
"When we got to Heathrow the doctors assessed me and it was a bit painful around the appendix.
"Geoff felt I wasn't fit enough to fly and that I had to be seen back at the Heath hospital in Cardiff."
What followed was a 100-mile plus return journey culminating in Wales' red liveried 52-seater bus dropping the player at A&E at the University Hospital of Wales where he was met by another Welsh Rugby Union medic.
"It must have been a bit weird for the people who were inside looking out," added Beard.
"When you go into A&E there is normally a massive queue. I was lucky Geoff and our medical team have a bit of a pull and they got to see me a bit earlier.
"I had a scan first to see if there was anything going on, but because it got pretty bad when I was there, I went straight in and was operated on after about three or four hours.
"That's quick compared to what normally people would have to wait for. I was lucky in that sense."
Lucky escape
It was a traumatic experience for Beard's parents Melanie and Paul - who took different views on the decision to rejoin the Wales squad in Japan - and his girlfriend Chelsea Lewis, who is a Wales netball international.
"My mother is a worrier anyway and she was saying, 'Don't fly, don't fly'," said Beard.
"But my old man was like, 'Come on it's only an appendix out - get out there!' It's good because I had both ends of the stick.
"I was speaking to my partner a few days later. We were laughing because we were thinking nothing of it at the start.
"She reminded me I was lucky not to get on that plane because it could have been dangerous. She said just take it step by step and realise how lucky you are."
After missing Wales' wins against Georgia and Australia, the 16-times capped lock looks most likely to return in the final pool game against Uruguay on 13 October.
Wales only had two fit specialist locks for the opening two victories in the form of captain Alun Wyn Jones and Jake Ball, with flanker Aaron Shingler acting as replacement cover.
Warren Gatland was prepared to wait for the Ospreys lock even though Cory Hill was sidelined, later to be replaced by Bradley Davies in the squad. Beard insists he never thought his World Cup dream was over.
"I was positive," said Beard.
"The surgery I had was keyhole and they didn't have to cut me open big. Geoff said it was a quick turnaround, two to three weeks and then get back into things."
Food for thought
Beard travelled to Japan just 10 days after his operation and says he was immediately punished by the Wales team fines committee for being late, wearing the wrong kit and losing weight.
Part of the recovery for the 6ft 8in lock has involved putting back the half stone he shed during his recuperation.
Now he's back into training... and eating.
"I was given a bit of a free rein when I got out here," said Beard.
"Normally I'd have four eggs and two toast with breakfast, now I'm having porridge and fruit too.
"I've been told to eat as much as I want as training is going to be hard to get back fit. I'm trying to double up on everything so I'm doing about 5,000 calories a day.
"The food has been amazing. The steaks are good and I have been smashing the sushi which has been unbelievable.
"It is tough to eat that much and at first my stomach was hurting, but it is getting easier and the weight is coming back on."
From a pain in the stomach to a belly ache, it's the unusual story of Adam Beard's World Cup so far.
South Africa's Eben Etzebeth will face Italy in the World Cup despite being accused of physical and racial abuse.
The lock, 27, faces legal proceedings over allegations he physically and racially assaulted a man at a restaurant in Langebaan in August.
The South African Human Rights Commission (SAHRC) will approach the Equality Court on Friday to ask it to hear what amounts to a civil case.
Etzebeth has denied any wrongdoing and remains with the South Africa squad.
Following the incident, Etzebeth said: "It is completely untrue and unfounded to claim that I physically or racially abused anyone in Langebaan. Multiple witnesses can corroborate that."
South African Rugby said on Thursday its commitment as a "good corporate citizen" would see it abide by the jurisdiction of the Equality Court and also confirmed it had begun an "internal process" over the issue.
Wednesday's announcement by the SAHRC about one of South Africa's key players came two days before a crucial game for the Springboks, who must beat Italy on Friday to stay in contention for a World Cup quarter-final place.
Teams
South Africa: Le Roux, Kolbe, Am, De Allende, Mapimpi; Pollard, De Klerk; Mtawarira, Mbonambi, Malherbe; Etzebeth, De Jager; Kolisi, Du Toit, Vermeulen
Fiji claimed their first win of this World Cup as six second-half tries saw them ease past Georgia in Higashiosaka.
The Pacific Islanders took the lead through Waisea Nayacalevu but Soso Matiashvili's penalty reduced the deficit to four points at half-time.
However second-half tries from Frank Lomani, Josua Tuisova, Semi Kunatani, Api Ratuniyarawa and two from Semi Radradra gave Fiji a bonus-point win.
Mamuka Gorgodze got a consolation for Georgia as Fiji moved second in Pool D.
Fiji were humbled by Uruguay in their last outing - albeit after only a four-day turnaround following the loss to Australia - but the backs, who scored five of their seven tries, ruthlessly took Georgia apart after the interval.
They could have scored more but Nayacalevu dropped the ball with the line at his mercy as Georgia fell to their first tournament defeat to a Tier 2 nation.
Their second biggest win at a World Cup means Fiji are likely to finish at least third in the pool - and with that gain qualification for the 2023 World Cup.
The Islanders face Wales in their final pool game on Wednesday, 9 October (10:45 BST), while Georgia conclude their campaign against Australia on Friday, 11 October (11:15).
George Ford is again at fly-half with captain Owen Farrell at inside centre as England face Argentina looking to claim three World Cup wins in a row.
It is the same team that opened the tournament against Tonga, other than the inclusion of lock George Kruis in place of Courtney Lawes.
Ben Youngs will become the third most capped England men's player on Saturday with his 92nd game at scrum-half.
Head coach Eddie Jones said: "Argentina are always about the physical contest."
"They've got good players, they've got a reasonably settled way of playing. They enjoy World Cups more than the other major teams, because there's such a pride and there's such a passion.
"The challenge for us is to show the same level of intensity and passion at the start of the game.
Jones has opted for a second-row combination of Maro Itoje and Kruis allied to the youthful back row of Tom Curry, Sam Underhill and Billy Vunipola for a match Argentina hooker Agustin Creevy has predicted will be "like a war".
Winger Jack Nowell and prop Mako Vunipola have been selected on the replacements' bench for the first time in the tournament after recovering from long-term injuries, with late squad bolter Lewis Ludlam also getting the nod.
Joe Marler, who retired from England duty a year ago, is in the front row alongside Jamie George and Kyle Sinckler.
Elliot Daly, Jonny May and Anthony Watson are selected in the back three.
Jones was in emotional mood after the death this week of Jeff Sayle, the coach at Randwick in Sydney who first picked him for that famous club side and then nurtured him.
Sayle was coach of the great Randwick team in the 1980s that also included David Campese, the Ella brothers and current Wallabies coach Michael Cheika.
Jones told BBC 5 Live: "I wouldn't be here today if it wasn't for Jeff.
"He taught us that winning and losing is important, but the main thing is to love the game. You have to keep loving the game, and I think you've seen that at this World Cup.
"I think he would be so proud of the spirit of the game at the tournament.
"I can remember being a schoolboy, and he would drive up in his old Kingswood, which would always look like it needed a good clean and good polish.
"And he'd pull his socks up, because he'd be refereeing the game, and he'd always be late, and he'd shout, 'How you going, boys?'
"I was coached by him, I worked with him at the licensing club for a while. He was just one of those guys who kept the club together. He gave his time to everyone.
"We visited him with England in 2016, and he made everyone feel at home. He was a great man."
Defeat for Argentina would effectively end their World Cup campaign at the pool stage, four years after they marched all the way to the last four.
They have not beaten England since 2009 but their recent record in the tournament - two semi-finals and a quarter-final in the last three editions - is superior to that of their opponents.
England, meanwhile, know a win would put them into the last eight, with either Australia or Wales likely opponents in the quarter-finals.
"Argentina is a completely different team from others we have played so far in the pool stages," said Jones, whose side have already defeated Tonga and the United States.
"This week it's about getting our game right, our set-piece in a good place and making sure defensively we are organised and ready to find ways to score points against them."
Analysis
Former England fly-half Paul Grayson
This is England's starting team exactly as you would expect to see it at this stage of the tournament.
It's the bench where there are some questions, with Mako Vunipola, Henry Slade and Jack Nowell returning from injury.
It strengthens the England 23, but there are slight question marks over all of those players' fitness.
The question marks over England's midfield seem to have been answered, and they've again gone with George Ford at 10 and Owen Farrell at 12.
If you want to play with those two, quick ball is a must, so they have gone with two fetchers at six and seven in Tom Curry and Sam Underhill.
It means England should be able to produce the quick ball that plays into the distribution skills of that Ford-Farrell axis.
Ultimately, this is Argentina's World Cup. They have to win to have any say on whether they make the quarter-finals.
They have laid out their plan pretty early and Agustin Creevy has gone big in his pre-game chat with the whole 'it is going to be a war' thing.
In sporting terms, they are going to bring a physical edge and an emotional intensity to the game.
Hopefully, England will have coolness between the ears to ride that out and make the most of the ability they have in their team.
Teams
England: Daly; Watson, Tuilagi, Farrell, May; Ford, B Youngs; Marler, George, Sinckler; Itoje, Kruis; Curry, Underhill, B Vunipola.
Replacements: Cowan-Dickie, M Vunipola, Cole, Lawes, Ludlam, Heinz, Slade, Nowell.
Argentina: Boffelli; Moroni, Orlando, De La Fuente, Carreras; Urdapilleta, Cubelli; Chaparro, Montoya, Figallo, Pagadizabal, Lavanini, Matera, Kremer, Desio
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