Oakland Raiders linebacker Vontaze Burfict is facing a ban for the rest of the 2019 season for his helmet-to-helmet hit Sunday on Indianapolis Colts tight end Jack Doyle, sources told ESPN's Chris Mortensen.

Burfict was ejected in the second quarter of Sunday's 31-24 win for the Raiders. He was initially flagged for hitting Doyle in the head across the middle. But after the officials conferred, Burfict was thrown out.

Sources told ESPN's Adam Schefter that Burfict will be suspended as soon as Monday.

The 29-year-old Burfict received 13 suspensions and fines in seven seasons with the Cincinnati Bengals before signing with the Raiders as a free agent this offseason. Two of the suspensions were for illegal hits, totaling six games.

This is Burfict's first season with the Raiders, and he was named a team captain.

"It's a tough decision, it's a tough call. I think it was a flag," Raiders coach Jon Gruden said Sunday. "It was very well-documented that the league was going to review those plays this year in New York City. So, that's what happened and I'll wait to hear what their reasoning was. But it was a penalty, he went in there with his head down, it was called and, unfortunately for us, it was an ejection."

It's almost impossible to be good at everything in the modern NFL. We're not that far removed from an era in which the league's best teams were dominant on both sides of the ball. From 1991-99, at least one team in each season posted a top-five finish in both offensive and defensive DVOA. Fast forward 20 years and from 2011-19, only five of those seasons featured a team that was in the top five on both offense and defense.

One of those seasons was the still-nascent 2019 campaign, and the team was the Patriots, who will be dropping from their fourth-placed spot in offensive DVOA after the Bills held them to nine points on offense Sunday.

All across the league in Week 4, we saw teams that might be able to stake their claim as the best in football struggle to live up to expectations. Several of those squads pulled out narrow victories, but the tape isn't going anywhere. This could be another year without a single team blowing away the competition on both offense and defense.

Let's run through those teams and get a sense of what might be holding them back or loom as a serious flaw. With apologies to the Packers (who didn't play on Sunday) and the Seahawks (who have now played all four of their games against teams that were missing their best player for part or all of the contest), I'll start with the Patriots, who faced their toughest test of the season so far by a considerable margin:

Jump to a team:
BUF | CHI | DAL
KC | LAR | NE | NO

New England Patriots

The problem: Lack of infrastructure around Tom Brady

Rarely do you see Brady as flummoxed by a defense as he was against the Bills on Sunday. The 42-year-old finished the 16-10 win just 18-of-39 passing for 150 yards and an interception, with New England's nine offensive points coming on short fields after interceptions. (More on those in a minute.) Against a Sean McDermott defense that specializes in taking away big plays, Brady's average completion traveled just 2.9 yards in the air, the shortest mark for any quarterback in Week 4.

This was one of the least productive games of Brady's career. That's not hyperbole. Using adjusted yards per attempt, which is a better-weighted version of passer rating, Brady's 2.7 AY/A was the eighth-worst start of the future Hall of Famer's career in games with 20 pass attempts or more. Maybe we shouldn't have been surprised. The six worst contests were all starts from before the Brady Awakening in 2007. The seventh-worst start was Brady's game against the Bills in Week 16 last season, when he averaged just 2.3 AY/A in a 24-12 victory.

Of course, Brady and the Patriots went on to win the Super Bowl last season, so there's not much to be worried about, right? Yes and no. It's fair to note that they won't have to play the Bills every week, and Buffalo might very well have the best defense in football. Brady has looked great this season and played fine on Sunday beyond an awful interception in the end zone on a pass he never should have thrown.

Last season, though, the Patriots had ways to help out Brady. Their running game took over during the AFC portion of the playoffs, with Sony Michel running behind an offensive line that coalesced as the season went along. In their postseason wins over the Chargers and Chiefs, the Pats ran the ball 82 times for 331 yards, 25 first downs and eight touchdowns. More than 46% of their runs qualified as successful by ESPN's expected points added model (EPA).

Anyone who owns Michel in fantasy football is well-aware that the former first-round pick has struggled mightily this season. He began the game with a 15-yard carry and finished with 17 carries for 63 yards, but neither he nor the rest of the Pats' backs have been up to the task. New England is 24th in the league in yards per carry (3.2), and just over 40% of its runs have qualified as successful by EPA. That figure falls to 36.7% if you exclude the game against the Dolphins, who don't appear to be playing the same sport as the Bills.

I wouldn't pin all of the blame on Michel and the backs. An offensive line that was dominant during the postseason is just trying to get by right now. Left tackle Isaiah Wynn, who went down during the Week 2 win over the Dolphins, is on injured reserve with turf toe. His replacement is journeyman Marshall Newhouse, who played Sunday after missing practice with an illness. The Pats were already down center David Andrews, who is done for the year with blood clots, and made a rare pro scouting misstep when they traded a sixth-round pick for Bills center Russell Bodine, only to cut him after a week. Fullback James Develin, a key blocker in the running game, is also on injured reserve.

When the Pats struggled to run the ball or do much of anything on offense during the Super Bowl, they had a second advantage to fall back on: Gronk. They pieced together their game-winning drive against the Rams by running the same play three times in a row for 49 yards, setting up a Michel plunge. Rob Gronkowski and Develin made that concept work as bigger players who were both excellent blockers and viable (or in Gronk's case, much more than viable) receivers. The Patriots could start with heavy personnel, force the opposing defense to match with their base defense, and then use their weapons to create mismatches in the passing game.

Gronkowski is gone, and the Patriots don't have the healthy pieces to create those mismatches. Remember two weeks ago, when I wrote about how the Patriots could go 16-0 and gushed about the upside of their receiving corps around Brady? A lot has changed in two weeks. Antonio Brown is no longer on the roster. Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman are both less than 100 percent as they play through injuries, and they've each dropped two passes over the past two weeks. Gordon is a mismatch when healthy, and Edelman was whipping the Steelers as recently as Week 1, but the Pats' best receivers right now are Phillip Dorsett and James White.

As a result, Brady spent most of Sunday throwing to White and Dorsett, who combined for 19 of his 34 catchable targets. (Five of his passes were marked as thrown away.) He was stuck attempting to repeatedly thread the needle downfield, and while he managed to create one big play on a wheel route to White and a second by attacking a gimpy Tre'Davious White for a pass interference call after James White went out with an injury, many of those passes into tight windows fell incomplete.

This should get better as the season goes along. The Patriots get Washington and the two New York teams over the next three weeks, which should help make them look a lot better than they did against the Bills. Offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia has a long history of improving his linemen as the season goes along, and the Pats should get better once Wynn returns from his toe injury in November. They might also get back first-round wideout N'Keal Harry as their other player from injured reserve at midseason, which would give Brady a physical mismatch in single coverage. Gordon and Edelman should also get healthier. Of the various concerns I'm laying out here, the Pats' problems are more fixable than most.

Buffalo Bills

The problem: Josh Allen is hopeless against smart defenses

Sunday's Bills-Patriots game was reminiscent of last December's game between those two teams on both sides of the ball. The Bills forced Brady into one of this worst games as a pro. On the other side, the Patriots took away what Allen does best and forced him into beating them from the pocket. Allen couldn't do it last December, and the second-year quarterback was even worse Sunday.

The worst quarterback performance of the day by Total QBR belonged to Allen, who went 13-of-28 for 153 yards with three interceptions, four sacks and a fumble before being knocked out of the game by a hit to the head from Jonathan Jones. Before the injury, Allen simply had no answer for how the Patriots defended him. Bill Belichick's defense is having a wildly impressive start to the season.

If you've watched Allen play more than a handful of snaps, you know how he threatens teams. He has improved his accuracy and thrown fewer deep passes in 2019, but the possibility of the deep throw and the threat Allen provides with his legs is where he can really hurt opposing defenses. Much of that comes from outside the pocket. Since the start of 2018, he has thrown about 20% of his passes from outside the pocket and leads the league in scramble yards.

Last season, the Patriots stayed disciplined in their rush lanes, trapped Allen in the pocket and trusted their defensive backs to hold up in coverage against a middling Bills receiving corps. They forced Allen to throw 41 times, and he completed just 20 of those passes for 217 yards, adding two picks. Outside of the pocket, Allen was just 1-of-3 for 5 yards. He scrambled only twice for a total of 11 yards. Belichick took away Allen's ability to place defenders in conflict with his legs and subsequently rendered Allen wholly ineffective.

Guess what happened Sunday? The Patriots forced Allen to live inside the pocket; he again was just 1-of-3 outside the pocket, and while his one completion went for 16 yards, one of the incompletions was a brutal interception. Allen scrambled just three times for 20 yards, fumbling on one of those runs.

With more confidence in his secondary, Belichick heaped added pressure on Allen by sending big blitzes -- or what appeared to be big blitzes -- on many third downs. While he wasn't sacked once in last season's matchup, the Patriots sacked him four times Sunday, with a fifth wiped away by a Stephon Gilmore holding penalty. One of those sacks came just before halftime and pushed Buffalo backward for what became a 49-yard field goal, which Stephen Hauschka then pushed wide. The sack that was wiped off by Gilmore's holding call was the most interesting of the bunch, as a Cover Zero rush where Allen simply had no idea where to go with the football (animation courtesy of NFL Next Gen Stats):

It will infuriate Bills fans who insist otherwise, but Buffalo likely would have won this game with former quarterback Tyrod Taylor, if only because the biggest strength of the now-Chargers backup is his ability to avoid turnovers. The team would have had a viable shot of winning if Allen had just kneeled three times and run off to the sideline for a punt. The Bills were able to get Frank Gore and the running game going, with the ageless wonder running 17 times for 109 yards and setting up a Drew Brees-esque glance over the pile from Allen for a touchdown, but they had the fifth-worst passing game of the season by win probability added.

It's too early to give up on Allen improving, of course. He's going to look better against less-disciplined defenses, as he did against the Giants in Week 2. His next six weeks include a game against Washington and a pair of games against the Dolphins, and it wouldn't shock me if he looks like he's improving against dismal competition. On Sunday, though, he was quite obviously holding back the rest of his team.

Kansas City Chiefs

The problem: The front seven

Last week, I wrote about how the Chiefs still can't stop the run. When you're the Chiefs and your quarterback is Patrick Mahomes, though, you can generally afford to be bad against the run. Andy Reid's offense has scored on a staggering 63.7% of its first-half possessions since the start of 2018, which is comfortably the best mark in football. No other team tops 50% over that same time frame. The Chiefs get out to plenty of early leads, which force the opposing offense to abandon its running game and throw the ball to try to catch (or keep) up. The Chiefs are a NASCAR car with a perennially malfunctioning windshield wiper. Most of the time, their biggest weakness isn't going to really matter.

What's more concerning about the Chiefs, though, is that the offseason changes they made to try to improve their pass defense haven't really taken. After hiring Steve Spagnuolo to replace Bob Sutton, the Chiefs overhauled their secondary, adding three new starters in cornerback Bashaud Breeland, safety Tyrann Mathieu and rookie safety Juan Thornhill. The biggest shift, though, was up front, where they acquired Frank Clark and Alex Okafor to replace Dee Ford and Justin Houston on the edge. Both Clark and Okafor are solid against the run, but the Chiefs made those moves to try to improve their pass rush.

So far, the pass rush is much worse. Kansas City pressured opposing quarterbacks on 31.1% of dropbacks last season, the seventh-highest rate in football. This season, that same pressure rate has fallen all the way to 23.8%, which is just ahead of the Falcons at 25th in the NFL. Kansas City's sack rate hasn't fallen quite as precipitously, but quarterbacks have had an easier time against the Chiefs than they did a year ago.

On Sunday, we saw the Lions take advantage of both concerns and outplay the Chiefs, only to be denied victory by their own mistakes. Detroit controlled the clock, held the ball for nearly 34 minutes, and ran the ball 35 times for 186 yards. Matthew Stafford came into the game with a hip injury but didn't show many effects; the Chiefs pressured him only 22.5% of the time, and he went 21-of-34 for 291 yards and three touchdowns.

The Lions had 11 meaningful possessions, leaving out the two that came at the end of each half. Six of those 11 possessions made it inside the Chiefs' 10-yard line. Three of them ended in touchdowns. One resulted in a field goal. The other two produced fumbles. One was Stafford's worst play of the game and came after a Kenny Golladay touchdown catch was narrowly overturned; the former first overall pick scrambled out of a collapsing pocket, only to lose the ball on his way out, costing the Lions three points.

The other fumble cost them as many as 14 points, when Kerryon Johnson fumbled inside the 2-yard line and Breeland scooped up the ball and returned it for a 100-yard touchdown amid relative indifference from the Lions, who thought Johnson was down. The fumble was confirmed on replay and appeared to be the correct decision, but it reinforced just how the NFL has pushed officials into a corner.

I'm still concerned about the Kansas City defense holding up week after week throughout a postseason run. While Chiefs fans were basically excited to have anybody besides Sutton as defensive coordinator, Spagnuolo's defenses ranked 26th or worse in points allowed in four of his previous five seasons as head coach or defensive coordinator before joining the Chiefs. Chris Jones, who had a career season with 14.5 sacks and 29 knockdowns last year, has two sacks and five knockdowns through four games. Clark has one sack and one knockdown.

There's plenty of time to get going, and the secondary has shown more promise than it did a year ago, but the early returns on Kansas City's big offseason decisions aren't great.

Dallas Cowboys

The problem: Pass pressure

The Cowboys, likewise, haven't been great getting after quarterbacks this season. While they have yet to play a quarterback who wasn't either benched or a backup to start the season, they're pressuring opposing passers on just 19.7% of dropbacks after one month of football. That's the third-worst rate in football, ahead of only the Raiders and Dolphins.

The likes of Eli Manning and Josh Rosen weren't able to make the Cowboys pay frequently, but there's already a noticeable drop-off when the Cowboys don't get home. When Dallas does get pressure on the opposing passer, it allows a passer rating of 27.8, which is fifth best in football. Its Total QBR in those situations is a mere 1.2, the third-best mark in the NFL. Without pressure, the Cowboys fall to a 96.2 passer rating and 58.4 Total QBR, which is 12th and 10th in the league, respectively. I suspect that gap will rise as the Cowboys face a tougher slate of passers from here on out, including Aaron Rodgers and the Packers next Sunday.

Unlike many of these other teams, though, Sunday was Dallas' best game of the season rushing the quarterback. It pressured Teddy Bridgewater on 24.3% of his dropbacks and sacked him five times on 35 dropbacks, doubling its sack total from the first three weeks of the season. Robert Quinn, who was suspended for the first two games of the season, led the way with two sacks and three knockdowns.

In watching back those five sacks, though, the numbers sound more impressive than the actual performance. Two of those sacks were legitimately created by the pass rush, including the 16-yard megasack by Jaylon Smith on the final Saints drive that knocked New Orleans out of field goal range. The other three had little to do with the pass rush. One was a Quinn sack in which Saints center Erik McCoy snapped the ball prematurely and Terron Armstead didn't come out of his stance. The other two were coverage sacks in which Bridgewater held the ball and scrambled while waiting for someone to get open, including the Kyle Shanahan "leak" concept where Josh Hill came across the formation and eventually got open, but by the time that happened, Bridgewater was trying to scramble past the line of scrimmage and took a short sack.

Quinn comfortably led the league in ESPN's pass rush win rate last season -- he was at 33% and no other regular defender topped 28.7% -- but the NFL didn't value him as a great pass-rusher, with the Cowboys eventually sending the Dolphins a sixth-round pick to acquire the former Rams standout. If Quinn continues to produce at that rate, the Cowboys could build a scary pass rush around him and DeMarcus Lawrence. If it's mostly Lawrence-or-bust, though, the Cowboys will likely finish somewhere around 2018's pressure rate of 28%, which ranked 24th in the league.

New Orleans Saints

The problem: Quarterback

I'm officially concerned. When I wrote about Drew Brees' injury two weeks ago, I noted that I would be rooting for Teddy Bridgewater. I also pointed out that he hadn't been an effective quarterback since coming back from his knee injury, though that sample contained only 55 regular-season passes thrown over three seasons, during which he had been a part of three organizations.

The Saints have won both of their starts with Bridgewater under center, which is great news for their chances of competing for a Super Bowl. Bridgewater, though, has been a passenger in those victories. The former Louisville star is completing 73.7% of his passes as a starter, which is great, but he's averaging only 6.5 yards per pass, which ranks 27th in the league. His Total QBR is just 24.2, which is 29th out of 33 quarterbacks. Only Kirk Cousins, Luke Falk, Mason Rudolph and Andy Dalton are below the former Vikings first-rounder.

Since entering the lineup, the Saints have adapted their offense to fit Bridgewater by throwing virtually everything within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Just 19.5% of Bridgewater's passes have traveled 10 or more yards in the air, which is remarkable (and last) in a league in which the average quarterback throws more than 33% of his passes further. Bridgewater's average pass has traveled just 5.3 yards in the air, which is the shortest average pass in the NFL by nearly seven-tenths of a yard. Every other quarterback in the NFL with significant playing time has topped 6 yards per throw.

Throwing short passes is fine if you're moving the chains, but his passes haven't been difference-makers. Only 27.6% of his passes have resulted in first downs, which ranks 30th in the NFL. To contrast, while Brees ranked 29th in average air yards per pass last season, he still averaged 7.1 air yards per throw and converted 40.7% of his passes into first downs, the fifth-best ratio in the league.

When Bridgewater has attempted to stretch his arm downfield, the returns haven't been pretty. The NFL's definition of deep passes includes throws traveling 16 or more yards downfield in the air. On those passes in 2019, Bridgewater is just 1-of-7 for 16 yards with an interception, which came last night. The pick wasn't his fault -- he escaped pressure and made a nice throw before it was jarred out of Ted Ginn's hands for a pick -- but the Saints don't appear very interested in testing teams downfield with their new quarterback.

The Saints are 2-0 with Bridgewater at quarterback, which is all they care about right now, but that has been hugely influenced by their defense and special teams. Those units scored 14 points in the unexpected 33-27 win over the Seahawks in Seattle, and Marshon Lattimore & Co. followed things up on Sunday by forcing a Cowboys team that had converted 58% of its third downs through three games into a 4-of-11 performance on third downs.

Bridgewater has won the two toughest games of what is expected to be a six-game stint replacing the injured Brees. His final four games include home contests against the Bucs and Cardinals and road trips against the Bears and Jaguars. Splitting those four starts would get the Saints to their bye at 5-3 in advance of Brees returning for the second half, which includes five of the Saints' six divisional games in the NFC South. New Orleans is still in great shape to claim the South.

I'm concerned about Bridgewater's chances of holding his own if the Saints do need him down the line in a key game. There are also at least some reasons to worry about Brees, who will be coming back from an injury that could impact his usual pinpoint accuracy. Even if we get the Brees who was closer to good than great during the final few weeks of the 2018 season, though, the Saints are still a Super Bowl contender as constructed. That's going to be a tougher sell if they need to rely on Bridgewater, at least based on his current form.

Chicago Bears

The problem: Quarterback, too

Like the Saints, the Bears' defense is back for another vicious round in 2019. The turnovers have regressed ever so slightly -- they have eight takeaways in four games after racking up 11 over their first four games in 2018 -- but Chuck Pagano's unit held the Vikings to just six points across 10 possessions Sunday. To do that without Akiem Hicks and Roquan Smith is impressive, and as good as Chicago's top-level talent still is, it's heartening to see backups like Roy Robertson-Harris and Nick Williams impressing as their roles expand. This is still a very scary defense.

The problem on the other side of the ball, though, remains that the Bears don't seem to be good enough at quarterback. Mitchell Trubisky came into the season expecting to take another step forward and emerge as an upper-echelon starter. Instead, he was awful during the first two games of the season, and while his numbers were better on Monday Night Football against Washington, even he admitted his performance wasn't a breakthrough. His 116.5 passer rating was betrayed by a 45.1 Total QBR; Trubisky's average throw in the Washington game traveled just 5.4 yards in the air, with his beautiful touchdown pass to Taylor Gabriel on a third-and-17 as an exception.

On Sunday, Trubisky sought to prove his credentials in a tough divisional game against the Vikings, only to be forced from the contest with a serious injury to his non-throwing shoulder after just three pass attempts. Chase Daniel came in and went 22-of-30 for 195 yards and a touchdown pass to Tarik Cohen, though he could lead the Bears to only one drive of more than 10 yards in seven tries during the second half.

After the game, Matt Nagy suggested that Trubisky's injury wasn't season-ending, which leaves a huge swath of possibilities. Quarterbacks in the past have played through separations of their non-throwing shoulders, including Brett Favre and Michael Vick. Blaine Gabbert dislocated his non-throwing shoulder in August and was placed on injured reserve by the Buccaneers, although it's unclear if Trubisky has a similar sort of injury or if the Bears would approach the situation the same way given that Trubisky is their starter.

Nagy also said that the Bears would not need to make any changes to their offense by inserting Daniel, which gets to my bigger concern at the moment with Trubisky. In 2018, the Bears turned to Daniel for two starts against the Lions and Giants while their starter was out with a different shoulder injury. His passing numbers were modestly productive, but the biggest difference between watching the two quarterbacks in the same offense had to do with mobility and scrambling.

Daniel carried the ball eight times for 8 yards during his two weeks as a starter. In 2018, meanwhile, Trubisky generated a huge amount of value with his feet, running 68 times for 421 yards and three touchdowns. By ESPN's expected points model, about 25% of Trubisky's value in 2018 was a product of his work as a runner as opposed to his passing.

Even before going down with his shoulder injury, though, Trubisky had stopped running in 2019. Through a little over three games, the North Carolina product had just five carries for 21 yards. Those numbers put him on pace to finish with just 168 rushing yards. After scrambling 36 times for 320 yards and 16 first downs in 2018, Trubisky had just two scrambles for 10 yards and a lone first down through two weeks. That first down came on Trubisky's first third down of the season.

Is Trubisky deliberately trying to avoid scrambling? It's tough to say through three games. I would argue that it might be the best thing for his long-term development to stay in the pocket on third down and try to get more comfortable going through his progressions without scrambling for first downs, but it's obviously better for his team to take the conversion in the short term.

The Bears have faced longer third downs, which makes scrambling less practical in a situation in which Trubisky loved to get running a year ago. While the average Bears third down required only 5.8 yards to move the chains last season -- the fourth-shortest distance in the league -- Trubisky's average third down through three weeks was at 8.3 yards to go, which was instead the ninth-highest mark in the NFL.

The shoulder injury complicates all of this. If he were healthy, I would have argued for the Bears to try to get him involved as a runner more frequently in the weeks to come. Even if defenses were prepared to stop him, just the threat of him running on third down would help distract defenses and reduce the sorts of coverages Trubisky might see in third-down situations.

We know that shoulder injuries are more likely to recur after the initial injury, with the Anthony Miller injury from 2018 as a recent example Bears fans know well. Trubisky will want to avoid big, unexpected hits to try to keep his shoulder intact, and those are more likely to come as a runner. I'd also be worried about ball security as a runner if Trubisky has to place the ball into his other hand. It seems logical to try to keep Trubisky in the pocket and away from possible aggravations of the shoulder injury as much as possible upon his return, and that means taking his license to run away for the time being.

If Trubisky isn't going to run with the ball, Nagy probably doesn't have to change much of what he does on offense with Daniel taking over. The best version of this Bears offense, though, has Trubisky threatening defenders with his legs and picking up a couple of easy conversions on third downs per game. Take that away and you're asking Trubisky to win as a pocket passer. We haven't seen him do that consistently in the NFL.

Los Angeles Rams

The problem: Offensive identity

Let's finish up with the Rams, who lost their first game of the year in an upset to the Buccaneers on Sunday. It was the sort of game the Rams typically don't lose, given that they scored 34 points on offense and added a pick-six for good measure. Since the 1970 merger, teams that have scored 40 points in a game with at least one defensive touchdown were 400-5 before Sunday. They're now 400-6.

You can thank Chris Godwin & Co. for making it to 55 points on the other side of the field, and while that raises questions about the Rams' secondary, it's also fair to ask about what's going on with the Rams' offense. Up against a defense that was gashed by Daniel Jones in his first NFL start last week, Sean McVay's team turned over the ball four times. Jared Goff threw for 517 yards, but it took the former first overall pick 68 pass attempts to get there. He threw three interceptions, got away with at least one other near-pick, and finished with a Total QBR of just 38.8.

Just eight of those 68 attempts came off of play-action, in part because the Rams seemingly had little interest in running the football. Tampa came into the game with the league's second-best rush defense DVOA, and it subsequently held the Rams to 11 carries for just 28 yards. While Todd Gurley scored twice, he carried the ball just five times for 16 yards, instead racking up 11 targets and 54 yards as a receiver.

While I wrote about Goff's slow start to the season last week, it's difficult to extricate his performance from Gurley's. When the Rams were rolling in 2017 and 2018, Gurley was playing every snap and a threat to touch the ball 30 times per game in any single week. The Rams made a killing off play-action and never had to reveal any tendencies by taking Gurley out of the game, which even the Patriots have had to reveal by swapping out Michel and White at halfback.

In 2019, though, the Rams have needed to change their offense. As The Athletic's Ted Nguyen noted, the Rams have swapped out some of their outside zone runs for crack toss to try to beat the six-man fronts they saw at the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2019 and get a ball carrier quickly to the edge. That works, but the Rams can't run the same play-action concepts off a toss play, which eliminates their ability to make everything look the same before a handoff until it's too late.

The Rams haven't been honest about Gurley's health for months. Whether they're dishonest to the public or to themselves is unclear. They swore that Gurley's knee was fine during the postseason, only to split his carries with street free agent C.J. Anderson. During the offseason, it became known that Gurley was dealing with an arthritic condition in his knee. This past week, McVay denied that Gurley was on a load management system and suggested that they wanted to get him into a rhythm by using him more in certain weeks.

It's hard to believe the organization here. McVay played Gurley on nearly 81% of the Rams' offensive snaps in 2017 and nearly 84% of the same snaps in 2018 before he started missing time during the Chiefs game. Through the first four weeks of the season, he has played just over 71% of the offensive snaps. The Rams didn't give Gurley what amounted to $40 million guaranteed over three seasons in 2018 to turn him into a back who carries the ball five times per game. After averaging between 22 and 23 touches per game in both 2017 and 2018, he has touched the ball 15 times per game this season.

The other disconcerting thing for the offense, aligned in part to Gurley's absence as a receiver before Sunday's loss to the Bucs, is their disappearing yards after catch. In 2017, the Rams averaged a staggering 6.6 YAC, which would have ranked as the fifth-highest figure over the prior decade. YAC is relatively inconsistent from year to year, but McVay was still able to coax 5.8 yards after catch from Goff's targets in 2018, which was good enough for seventh in the league. In 2019, the Rams rank 20th in average yards after catch, with just 4.9 yards per reception.

The Rams are still realistically at the point of figuring out what their offense is going to look like by the time we get to the postseason. It's a contrast to the 2017 and 2018 seasons, when Goff & Co. were able to hit the ground running. It also can't help that anyone who has ever worn a polo shirt around McVay is now an NFL head coach, forcing the Rams to rebuild their offensive coaching staff. The offense will likely end up looking just fine -- they did score on six of the eight possessions in which they didn't turn over the ball on Sunday -- but it's fair to say that they're in transition.

Guard Russell Westbrook will sit out the Houston Rockets' preseason opener against the Shanghai Sharks on Monday night, a source told ESPN.

The Rockets are taking a cautious approach during the preseason with Westbrook, who underwent arthroscopic surgery in the spring to clean up his right knee.

Westbrook, 30, the perennial All-Star the Rockets acquired in a July blockbuster trade with the Oklahoma City Thunder, has recently been cleared for live five-on-five action. He has participated in scrimmages at the Rockets' voluntary minicamp in Las Vegas and at their training camp over the weekend.

"I feel like I'm in a good place," Westbrook said of his health during Friday's media day. "I'll be ready to go on opening night."

Westbrook's knee issues originated in 2013 when then-Rockets guard Patrick Beverley ran into him during the first round of the playoffs. Westbrook suffered a torn meniscus and underwent surgery for a full repair. He went almost five years without any surgeries on his knee before having another scope last September, which caused him to miss all of training camp and the first two games of the regular season.

Westbrook averaged a triple-double (22.9 points, 11.1 rebounds and a league-leading 10.7 assists) for the third consecutive season in his final campaign for the Thunder, who opted to trade the longtime face of their franchise after Paul George's request to be dealt to the LA Clippers pushed Oklahoma City into a rebuilding phase.

Westbrook wanted to be traded to Houston to reunite with longtime friend and former Thunder teammate James Harden, believing that joining the Rockets maximized his chances of winning a championship.

Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks will reconvene Monday for the first time since their season ended with a heartbreaking six-game loss to the Toronto Raptors in the Eastern Conference finals.

It also will be the first time this season Antetokounmpo will be asked about his future, but far from the last. It will happen again both times he plays in Los Angeles and all three times he visits New York. The same goes for when he travels to San Francisco. And Miami. And Chicago. And Dallas.

And, frankly, just about everywhere else.

There won't be a more discussed topic in the NBA this season, for good reason. The Bucks have already said they intend to offer Antetokounmpo a supermax extension on June 30, 2020. What Antetokounmpo decides to do once that extension is offered will have ripple effects across the league for years to come. This all hangs over the Bucks as they begin what they hope will be a season that ends with Milwaukee winning its second NBA title.

"We want to be successful over a long period of time and be competitive for a long time and be resourceful," Bucks general manager Jon Horst told ESPN. "That's the answer. That's the direction. That's the focus. Yes, I believe if we do that, that's what I think Giannis wants to be part of. Winning. A family environment. He's a loyal guy who loves Milwaukee, and Wisconsin, and the Bucks, and we want to continue to grow and sustain something that we want him to be part of and build."

The Bucks will spend the next 10 months building their case for why Antetokounmpo's future should lie with them.

A future where Giannis signs

"As long as ... we are all on the same page and we are all focused on [winning a championship]," Antetokounmpo told reporters this summer, "why not play for the Bucks 20 years? Why not play 25 years?"

Forget 20 or 25. The Bucks will be perfectly happy if the NBA's reigning Most Valuable Player simply signs on for another five next summer. And despite seeing so many stars change teams this summer, Horst and the Bucks are solely focused on convincing Antetokounmpo that he shouldn't follow their lead.

"I don't want to sound naive, and it definitely isn't arrogant," Horst told ESPN. "But I don't really concern myself with other superstars, other teams or their ability to keep or recruit guys.

"We are intentionally laser-focused on Milwaukee and building the culture, success and sustainability of our organization. I think if we stay focused on that, we'll be fine."

Milwaukee has made tangible strides in each of those categories and can credibly sell that to Antetokounmpo, this year and beyond. Culturally, the Bucks today are a vastly different team from the one that drafted him six years ago. The ancient, nondescript Bradley Center has been replaced with the state-of-the-art Fiserv Forum, which is paired with an equally modern practice facility across the street. Meanwhile, the hiring of Mike Budenholzer -- arguably the top coaching candidate on the market last summer -- showed that Milwaukee can compete with any team for talent. Budenholzer built a system perfectly suited to accentuate Antetokounmpo's skill set, helping the 24-year-old become the league's MVP.

After Antetokounmpo struggled at the FIBA World Cup earlier this month, with Greece falling in the group stage as he averaged just 14.8 points per game, it's likely he appreciates Budenholzer's system even more.

The most obvious thing Milwaukee can sell, though, is success. The Bucks won a league-best 60 games last season and enter the season as the favorites in the Eastern Conference. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Bucks at +550 to win the title, behind only the Los Angeles Lakers and LA Clippers. After not having won a playoff series since 2001, the Bucks came within two wins of advancing to the NBA Finals. The Bucks will hope to build on that this year by playing in the NBA Finals for the first time since the days of Oscar Robertson and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in the early 1970s.

Milwaukee can point to what happened this summer as support for its sustainability argument. Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez and George Hill all re-signed on long-term deals. Budenholzer is signed to one too. Meanwhile, having Antetokounmpo means veterans chasing playoff success -- like Wesley Matthews and Robin Lopez, who signed this summer -- will prioritize the Bucks.

"Giannis being there was a part of my decision," Lopez said. "He's the best player on the planet right now. He makes everyone on the floor better. He makes the Bucks what they are.

"We're a team, and we got to where we were playing as a team. He's going to do what he's going to do. But if we all do our jobs these next few years, it's going to be hard for him to say no to being in Milwaukee."

Then there is the money. The Bucks can offer Antetokounmpo a five-year extension worth $253.8 million, per ESPN's Bobby Marks. Any team hoping to sign Antetokounmpo in free agency using cap space in 2021 would be able to offer him only a four-year deal worth $161.3 million.

There are other factors too. For one, there's no NBA team to lure him "home" like the Clippers did with Paul George and Kawhi Leonard this summer and the Brooklyn Nets did with Kyrie Irving. Milwaukee is the only home Antetokounmpo has known in the United States. Unless the NBA expands to Athens in the next 10 months, or Antetokounmpo makes the very unlikely choice to leave the NBA to play in the Euroleague in 2021, the option to play in front of his hometown fans won't be available to him.

Meanwhile, unlike George, Leonard and Irving -- all of whom were with the teams they left for just two seasons or less -- Antetokounmpo has spent his entire career in Milwaukee, putting down extensive roots while growing with a team that's now a legitimate title contender.

That wasn't the case for the Charlotte Hornets, who lost Kemba Walker to Boston this summer. Walker had repeatedly said he had no desire to leave Charlotte, but eventually the lure of winning -- not a larger market -- became too much to ignore.

"Guys know what it takes to be good in this league as far as competing and having the best players and teams," Walker told ESPN. "There are guys who still love to be in small markets -- including me, of course. But obviously it didn't work out."

In 2014, after his rookie season, Antetokounmpo sent out a tweet in the wake of LeBron James choosing to go back to the Cleveland Cavaliers in free agency.

"I'll never leave the team and the city of Milwaukee 'til we build the team to a championship level team ... " he wrote.

Milwaukee has built that championship-level team. If Antetokounmpo stays, Milwaukee will remain one for years to come. And after several stars chose to go to big markets this summer, Milwaukee will hope to buck that trend next year.

"You could say this summer that the big markets won [in free agency]," Horst said, "but what I think players want is to love where they come to work and to feel they can win at the highest level. I think we have a chance to be a top market in the NBA landscape because the top markets in the NBA do those things and not because of the weather or per capita income or location or whatever."

A future where Giannis doesn't sign

"As long as ... we are all on the same page and we are all focused on [winning a championship], why not play for the Bucks 20 years? Why not play 25 years?"

Antetokounmpo did say those words this summer, but how many times have we heard stars say similar things in the past -- only to leave soon afterward?

• Kyrie Irving, last October, about staying in Boston: "If you guys will have me, I plan on re-signing here.

• Dwight Howard, in March 2012, about staying in Orlando: "I'm not like those guys that people try to pay me to be. I'm loyal. I just love this city too much. I want to win a championship."

• LaMarcus Aldridge, in July 2014, about staying in Portland: "I'm happy to stay, happy to be here, happy with the direction the team has gone the last year or two."

• Kevin Durant, in July 2015, about staying in Oklahoma City: "It's our year next year! Then Ima sign back and build a sick ass house and keep stacking chips!! That's [the] goal."

Those are just a few of many examples. And, like everyone else, players are certainly allowed to change their minds. And until he signs his name to that $253.8 million contract extension, Antetokounmpo will have the option to do so as well.

ESPN's Malika Andrews reported after that devastating loss to the Raptors in May that reaching the NBA Finals this season could play a part in what Antetokounmpo chooses to do. And that was before the Raptors lost Leonard -- clearing a significant hurdle from Milwaukee's path to doing just that.

And although cash works in Milwaukee's favor when it comes to the amount it can pay Antetokounmpo, the team's reticence toward paying the luxury tax this summer is seen around the league as a strike against the Bucks.

"They didn't pay the tax," said one Eastern Conference executive, when asked for a reason Antetokounmpo could choose to leave. "They actively avoided doing it."

Milwaukee could've retained 2016-17 Rookie of the Year Malcolm Brogdon, who started all 64 regular-season games he played last season. Instead, the Bucks agreed to a sign-and-trade with the Indiana Pacers in July for a first-round pick and two second-round selections.

The move gave Milwaukee long-term flexibility, both financially and in terms of the additional draft capital. And if Milwaukee wins the title in June, or even just reaches the Finals, the Bucks' decision to let Brogdon go will be vindicated. But if the Bucks fall short of their goals, losing a key contributor to duck the tax line will be seen as a contributing factor.

And in a league where players are exerting more control over teams than ever, every little thing teams do matters.

"Players have all the leverage," said an executive with a small-market team. "I would say it's a players' league right now. They get to dictate where they want to go and what they want to do."

That was certainly the case this summer as one star player after another changed teams. Leonard's departure, in particular, raised eyebrows. No, he had never declared he would stay in Toronto during his season with the Raptors. But the NBA has always maintained that small-market teams can attract and retain star talent if those teams are run well and compete for championships. Leonard's choosing to leave Toronto after a season in which the Raptors won a title dealt a blow to that argument's credibility.

It also generated a ton of chatter this summer at the league's annual meetings at the Las Vegas Summer League, where NBA commissioner Adam Silver admitted there remains room for improvement.

"At the end of the day, you want to make sure you have a league where every team is in a position to compete," Silver said. "We have work to do."

Finding a solution won't be easy. The supermax has not been enough to entice players such as Leonard and Anthony Davis to stay with their original teams. That has led some within the league to argue that teams need to have an even greater advantage than what the supermax currently offers them. However, radical structural changes such as a hard salary cap or an NFL-style franchise tag system have always been, and remain, non-starters in the eyes of the union, sources said.

Still, even within the current system, it is possible for small-market teams to compete at the highest level. Milwaukee is proof of that. So are the Utah Jazz, and the Spurs have been one of the league's model organizations for decades.

Pulling it off, however, requires walking a fine line of chasing championships while being judicious when it comes to spending -- be it draft capital, money or both.

On the other hand, a team such as the Clippers -- owned by the 14th-wealthiest man in America, playing in the nation's second-largest TV market -- can make a trade like the one it did for George involving several first-round draft picks and know that it can always fall back on free agency as a reasonable alternative.

"The big-market teams can say, 'Who cares?'" said the small-market executive. "They can say, 'We can replace their picks in free agency because we know we can get players that way.'"

If Antetokounmpo turns down the supermax extension next summer, he'll immediately become one of those players big-market teams target. Without a long-term deal in place, the Bucks would almost be forced into trading him a year before his contract is up so as not to risk losing him for nothing in free agency in 2021 the way the Raptors did with Leonard this past summer.

And if Antetokounmpo decides his long-term future isn't in Milwaukee, he'll also have the leverage to affect where he winds up. Davis certainly did in getting to the Lakers this summer. Leonard, on the other hand, wound up being traded to Toronto in 2018 despite his demands to go to Los Angeles.

It certainly worked out for the Raptors. But it also worked out for Leonard, who had to wait only a few extra months to get what he ultimately wanted and added a second championship ring along the way.

"At the end of the day, we want to be a league where strong management is rewarded and ... every team has the opportunity to compete," Silver said.

If, 10 months from now, Antetokounmpo decides not to reward the Bucks with his signature, the NBA will have to accept that the argument has been dealt a powerful blow.

St. Louis Cardinals beat writer Derrick Goold performed CPR on a man in distress Sunday in the Chicago Cubs dugout in St. Louis, helping to save his life.

The Cubs were about to announce that manager Joe Maddon would not be returning to the team, but there was a delay. That was because videographer Mike Flanary, 64, had collapsed and briefly did not have a pulse.

Goold, who works for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, performed CPR on Flanary before Cubs training staff and emergency medical personnel took over. According to the Post-Dispatch, Goold is a former lifeguard and Eagle Scout trained in CPR.

Medical officials told the Post-Dispatch that Flanary was hospitalized in critical but stable condition after suffering a heart attack and stroke.

"So many people are afraid of doing CPR. But, because of (Goold's) actions, he was the first link in that chain of survival," David Tan, the stadium doctor on duty at the park, told the newspaper.

"It's fabulous. It was the early CPR by Derrick Goold that probably saved his life. Derrick wasn't afraid. He didn't hesitate. And he did it. In the medical field, when you save somebody like this, they call it a clinical save. This is a clinical save that was started by Derrick Goold. Period."

The story of the 2019 baseball season has been all the home runs. Pick your favorite storyline and there's a good chance it circles back to home runs in some fashion: Twins, Yankees, Pete Alonso, Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich, Ronald Acuna Jr. hitting 41 at age 21, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez and so on. Many of your least favorite storylines also circle back to home runs: the Orioles, Gleyber Torres versus the Orioles, the Nationals' bullpen, the Astros playing consecutive games with scores of 21-1, 15-0 and 21-7 ... Craig Kimbrel (sorry, Cubs fans).

It computes, then, that a major plotline of the 2019 postseason will be home runs. The team that wins will hit a bunch of them and prevent their opponents from hitting too many of them. Let's dig into what we might see this October.

There WILL be a lot of home runs

Unless Those In Charge dig out old boxes of 2014 balls from a storage bin at Kauffman Stadium, the postseason will be played with the same lively ball we've seen all season. Yes, we'll see much better pitching in October, but history suggests that we'll still see plenty of home runs at rates similar to the regular-season clip, no matter who is pitching.

The old adage is that good pitching beats good hitting. Because of that, you often hear broadcasters say that teams can't rely on the home run in the postseason -- at least not to the same extent that they do in the regular season -- so teams should invoke more one-run strategies or that teams that string together hits will fare better.

It's true that run scoring is slightly lower in the postseason -- not only do you have better pitching staffs, but those staffs concentrate a higher percentage of their innings with their best pitchers. However, offense in the postseason actually relies more on home runs than it does in the regular season. Looking at the past five years, compare the regular-season totals for runs per game, at-bats per home run and batting average to the postseason totals for those categories:

The average runs per game has been lower in four of the five postseasons, but the rate of home runs has been higher in three of the five postseasons and higher overall. Batting average, however, has been lower in all five postseasons. There are fewer runs because there are fewer hits, not fewer home runs.

Here's another way to look at it. The percentage of runs that score via home runs:

If 2017, the season with the second-most home runs in history, is any indication of how the 2019 postseason will unfold, then the long ball will drive scoring even more.

Home runs are the most important plays of the postseason

At thebaseballgauge.com website, there is a statistic tracked that it calls championship Win Probability Added -- basically, the most important plays of the postseason, factoring in game, series and specific score information at the time of the play. The biggest play last year was Yasiel Puig 's three-run homer in Game 7 of the National League Championship Series that turned a 2-1 Dodgers lead into a decisive 5-1 edge in the sixth inning, a play given a CWPA score of .127. Puig's hit improved the Dodgers' chances of winning the World Series by 12.7 percent (because it basically guaranteed them a trip to the World Series).

Of the top 10 plays in the 2018 postseason, six were home runs.

How about 2017? The top play was Jose Altuve 's three-run homer in Game 5 of the World Series, turning a 7-4 Astros deficit in the fifth inning into a tie game. Six of the 10 most important plays that postseason were home runs.

And 2016? The top play was Rajai Davis' clutch two-run home run in the bottom of the eighth inning of Game 7 for the Indians against the Cubs, tying the game and giving Cleveland hope. Ben Zobrist's go-ahead double in the 10th inning was No. 2. The top 10 plays that postseason were all in Game 7 of the World Series, including home runs from Dexter Fowler and David Ross.

What about 2015? Top play honors goes to Alex Gordon for his game-tying home run in the ninth inning of Game 1 of the World Series. That saved the day as the Royals would eventually win that game in extra innings. Three of the top 10 overall were home runs.

And in 2014? The most important play was the final one of Game 7 of the World Series: Madison Bumgarner getting Salvador Perez to pop out with the tying run at third base. In this year, none of the top 10 plays were home runs -- mostly because eight of the top 10 came from Game 7 and there were no home runs in that game.

Still not convinced? There were 33 postseason games in 2018. Eliminate the 10 in which teams hit the same number of home runs, and the team that hit more home runs went 19-4 in the other 23 games.

Nothing against small ball or four-hit rallies or driving in the runner from second with two outs -- those can and will still be important aspects of winning -- but in the postseason you win by hitting home runs.

Digging into the 2019 home run numbers

The top five home run teams in 2019 -- the Yankees, Twins, Astros, Dodgers and A's -- all made the playoffs. Seven of the top 10 home runs teams made it to the tournament. The Yankees and Twins topped 300 home runs and the Astros and Dodgers also surpassed the previous single-season team record, set last year by the Yankees.

The only two playoff teams not to rank in the top half of the majors in home runs are the Rays and Cardinals -- and both still topped 200 home runs, a total only one team reached back in 2014. The Cardinals hit 200 home runs for just the sixth time in franchise history while the Rays hit the second most in franchise history. All 10 playoff teams can hit the ball over the fence.

Not all playoff teams played the same set of opponents, however. I was curious to see which teams pumped up their home run totals against bad teams -- especially in the American League, where the split between good and bad teams created a deeply divided league. Perhaps not surprisingly, the Twins benefited from beating up on the pitching staffs of the White Sox, Royals and Tigers. Here is each team's rate of at-bats per home run against teams above .500 and below .500 (through Friday):

The Twins have hit .287/.354/.532 against bad teams and .248/.318/.443 against good teams. Their high-powered offense looks a little less imposing when viewed in this context. True, the Astros and Yankees also decline, but not to the same extent. The Braves actually hit a little better against good teams (although they hit just .216/.251/.366 in six games against the Dodgers).

Here are nine more numbers to consider:

• Hitting velocity is important and maybe more so in October. Of the teams with the nine highest home run rates against pitches of 95-plus mph, seven of them made the playoffs. The top six in wOBA against 95-plus all made the playoffs. Here are the playoff teams against 95-plus, sorted by wOBA:

Dodgers: .279/.368/.541, 5.3% HR rate
Twins: .299/.377/.510, 4.4% HR rate
Yankees: .283/.357/.500, 5.2% HR rate
Cardinals: .276/.351/.488, 4.3% HR rate
Nationals: .271/.365/.457, 3.1% HR rate
Braves: .266/.358/.466, 4.2% HR rate
A's: .233/.335/.422, 3.6% HR rate
Astros: .237/.335/.409, 3.5% HR rate
Brewers: .221/.322/.394, 3.9% HR rate
Rays: .221/.313/.365, 2.8% HR rate

Note in particular that the Astros weren't that impressive against hard stuff.

• Similarly, here are the 10 batters in the postseason with the highest home run rates against 95-plus: Max Muncy (13.2%), Joc Pederson (12.3%), Nelson Cruz (11.0%), Paul DeJong (10.7%), Dexter Fowler (8.6%), Freddie Freeman (8.3%), Jose Altuve (7.7%), George Springer (7.6%), Yasmani Grandal (6.7%), Josh Donaldson (6.5%).

That's just home run rate. If we sort by overall wOBA against pitches thrown 95-plus, Cruz, Pederson and Kolten Wong rank 1-2-3 in the majors, with Muncy, Fowler, Freeman and Alex Bregman in the top 10.

• Who struggles against big velocity? Houston's Josh Reddick hit .140/.220/.200 with no home runs. Tommy Pham, Michael Brantley and Lorenzo Cain also didn't hit a single home run against 95-plus, although all three hit for a decent batting average. Here are some other interesting names who struggled against 95-plus:

Paul Goldschmidt, .140/.194/.291, 4 HR in 86 ABs
Matt Chapman: .175/.305/.388, 4 HR in 80 ABs
Gary Sanchez: .217/.262/.333, 2 HR in 60 ABs
Didi Gregorius: .123/.138/.228, 2 HR in 57 ABs
Corey Seager: .250/.324/.433, 1 HR in 60 ABs

Acuña is also an interesting guy to watch here. He was the ultimate hit-or-miss against big velo: He hit .184, although with seven home runs in 125 at-bats.

• Who gives up home runs? Looking at pitchers with at least 100 innings, the three with the highest home run rates are all Yankees: CC Sabathia, Domingo German and J.A. Happ. German is already suspended for the postseason, however, and Sabathia will likely pitch out of the bullpen. Also ranking among the 10 worst among the playoff pitchers: Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw. Obviously, both are otherwise tough to hit -- Verlander allowed a .172 average and Kershaw .223 -- but they are vulnerable to the home run.

• On the other end of the spectrum are the starters who are stingy with the long ball. Charlie Morton, Mike Soroka and Jake Odorizzi rank 1-2-3 in this area. Morton, who will start the wild-card game for the Rays, allowed just 15 home runs in 194⅔ innings. Soroka has allowed just 13 in 169⅔ innings. Jack Flaherty struggled early with the home run, but one reason for his second-half dominance is he has cut way down on the long ball, with just five in 14 starts since the All-Star break.

• Among relievers, Milwaukee's Josh Hader has fanned a remarkable 16.4 batters per nine innings, but he has allowed 14 home runs in 74⅔ innings. He has been much better in September after struggling in July and August when he allowed seven home runs and .250/.315/.560 battling while blowing five saves.

The Cardinals' Andrew Miller had that monster postseason for Cleveland in 2016, but he has also been vulnerable, with 11 home runs in 54 innings. That's one reason manager Mike Shildt has deployed him in short stints as he has made 72 appearances for those 54 innings. The Cardinals' bullpen has been very good overall, however, and has the lowest home run rate -- tied with Oakland -- of the playoff teams.

At the bottom of that list? Not surprisingly, the Nationals' wretched pen that ranked 25th in the majors with a 3.9 percent home run rate. But note the team just ahead of them at 24th: the Astros. Roberto Osuna (2.77 ERA), Ryan Pressly (2.36 ERA) and Will Harris (1.51 ERA) have been an excellent 1-2-3 punch at the back end, but if A.J. Hinch has to dig into his second-tier relievers such as Hector Rondon, Chris Devenski and Josh James, that group is more vulnerable to the home run.

• Of course, one reason Astros relievers have allowed so many home runs is their home park. The Astros and their opponents have hit 55 more home runs at Minute Maid than when playing at the other team's park. The Astros have allowed a home run every 21.1 at-bats at home, but just every 27.7 at-bats on the road.

Minute Maid has the sixth-highest home run factor in the majors in 2019 -- although not the highest of the 10 parks in the postseason. That actually belongs to Nationals Park. Here's an odd stat: Yankee Stadium has actually not played as a home run park this season, ranking 25th in the majors in home run factor. The Yankees and their opponents have hit 257 home runs at Yankee Stadium, but 295 on the road. Your 2019 home run factors:

Nationals Park: 1.26
Minute Mark Park: 1.21
Dodger Stadium: 1.11
Miller Park: 1.04
SunTrust Park: 1.03
Target Field: 0.87
Yankee Stadium: 0.85
Oakland Coliseum: 0.84
Busch Stadium: 0.81

• Finally, here are six under-the-radar sluggers to watch:

Twins catcher Mitch Garver actually leads the majors in home run rate at 8.7 percent, slugging 31 home runs in 308 at-bats.

Teammate Miguel Sano is third in home run rate, with 34 in 378 at-bats. He's all or nothing with his 36 percent strikeout rate, but he's averaging a big bomb every 11 at-bats.

Springer's season has sort of been lost in the Bregman/Verlander/Gerrit Cole spotlight, but he has mashed a career-high 38 home runs and has 11 home runs in 32 career postseason games -- including nine in his past 15 going back to the 2017 World Series.

Oh, and teammate Jose Altuve has been red hot in the second half, hitting .320 with 20 home runs, eight in the majors since the All-Star break.

A's shortstop Marcus Semien has been a surprise power source with 33 on the season -- 19 in the second half.

Rays outfielder Austin Meadows made the All-Star team, but has been even better in the second half with 21 home runs.

Maybe those guys will prove to be October heroes. Or maybe it will be the MVP candidates, Bellinger and Bregman and Anthony Rendon. Or, in the year of the long ball, it could be anybody. After all, it does seems like every player can mash one over the fence these days.

Stats through Friday's games.

Whether you are a die-hard fan who has been following every pitch since Opening Day or playing catch-up as the 2019 MLB postseason begins, the start of October means the best time of the baseball season is ahead of us.

Will anyone keep this month from belonging to the Houston Astros? Can the Los Angeles Dodgers finally win it all after two straight World Series losses? Is this the year the Yankees return to the top of the baseball universe? Or will a surprising story overcome the three superteams that have dominated the season?

As 10 teams enter the playoffs with hopes of a World Series run, we enlisted ESPN.com's Bradford Doolittle, Sam Miller, Jeff Passan and David Schoenfield to provide odds for every matchup, players to watch, scouting reports, predictions and much more.

Jump to each postseason team:
NL: Dodgers | Braves | Cardinals | Nationals | Brewers
AL: Astros | Yankees | Twins | Athletics | Rays

October overview

World Series odds by team

(Odds from Bradford Doolittle's MLB projection system)

Houston Astros 33%

Los Angeles Dodgers 26%

New York Yankees 11%

Washington Nationals 9%

Minnesota Twins 7%

St. Louis Cardinals 5%

Atlanta Braves 3%

Oakland Athletics 3%

Tampa Bay Rays 2%

Milwaukee Brewers 1%

ESPN.com expert October rankings

1. Astros (No. 1 lineup | No. 1 pitching staff)

2. Dodgers (No. 3 lineup | No. 2 pitching)

3. Yankees (No. 2 lineup | No. 5 pitching)

4. Twins (No. 4 lineup | No. 7 pitching)

5. Nationals (No. 6 lineup | No. 4 pitching)

6. Braves (No. 5 lineup | No. 9 pitching)

7. A's (No. 7 lineup | No.8 pitching)

8. Rays (No. 9 lineup | No. 3 pitching)

9. Cardinals (No. 10 lineup | No. 6 pitching)

10. Brewers (No. 8 lineup | No. 10 pitching)

National League wild-card game

Brewers at Nationals (8 ET, Tuesday on TBS)

Sure, the Brewers would have preferred to have won the division, but in one way it's beneficial the way everything unfolded on Sunday as they were able to rest all their best relievers -- most notably Josh Hader -- for Tuesday's wild-card game. The pitching staff will have to come up big, because you have to think Max Scherzer -- with Stephen Strasburg a good bet to appear in relief given the shaky relief corps of the Nationals -- will be stingy with the runs. It was the pitching that carried the Brewers through their September surge with the best ERA in the majors.

Milwaukee Brewers

89-73 | NL wild card | 1% World Series odds

Odds by round

Wild-card round: 39% vs. Nationals

NLDS: 27% vs. Dodgers

NLCS: 42% vs. Cardinals, 35% vs. Braves

World Series: 34% vs. Yankees, 21% vs. Astros, 41% vs. Twins, 43% vs. A's, 43% vs. Rays

What they do better than everyone else: The Brewers are so consistently difficult to explain or project that it's hard to say exactly what they are doing that's so successful. What we can say is that after three years of this, Craig Counsell, David Stearns and their Milwaukee colleagues see something the rest of us don't. It surely has something to do with breaking the game down into micro-situations, leveraging the available talent to navigate each situation in the most efficient way possible, and the front office making sure that Counsell has the right tools with which to manage as many of those situations as possible. -- Doolittle

One flaw that could doom them: As Forrest Gump might say: Sometimes there just aren't enough rocks. The Brewers tore through September with a roster weakened by Christian Yelich's injury, mostly thanks to a run-prevention unit that featured 20 pitchers with at least one inning pitched in September alone, only one of whom (Jordan Lyles) averaged even five innings per outing. Obviously, Counsell won't have that many arms with which to work on a September roster -- though he can keep on in the same vein in the NL wild-card game. However, if Milwaukee survives the Nationals, will Counsell have enough arms to match up with the Dodgers? -- Doolittle

Their Mr. Excitement: Well, their Mr. Excitement is out for the playoffs with a fracture kneecap. So let's go with rookie second baseman Keston Hiura. Everyone loves rookies and with Christian Yelich out, Hiura is the team's best hitter, a line drive smokin' machine with surprising over-the-fence power for his size. -- Schoenfield

Their best player you've never heard of: Pick a set-up reliever, any set-up reliever. The Brewers, as they did last year, have remade their bullpen on the fly, with relief aces emerging out of failed turns in the rotation, little noticed trade deadline pickups, and previously undistinguished resumes. Freddy Peralta and Brent Suter are options here, but Drew Pomeranz wins it: His career seemed endangered after a 6.08 ERA with Boston last year, and he was nearly as bad after the Giants gave him one more chance in the starting rotation this season. When San Francisco moved him to the bullpen he picked up 2 mph on his fastball; with Milwaukee, he's added one more. He has faced 48 batters in September and struck out more than half of them, walking only one, allowing a .152/.167/.283 slash line and a 2.03 ERA. -- Miller

Their season in a game: The Brewers, paradoxically, had an MVP candidate in the heart of their lineup but won far more of their games when he wasn't playing: They were 67-63 when Yelich played, 22-10 when he didn't. They also won, usually by the skin of their teeth, with a run differential that was negative right up until the final week of the season, and which ended up about 100 runs behind the Cubs. And more than any team in the NL, they asked for only four or five innings from the starting pitcher. The game: a 4-3 win over Miami, Sept. 10. The Brewers were 46% likely to win that game when Yelich fouled a ball off his knee and had to be removed. They managed to win anyway, despite getting fewer hits, drawing fewer walks and striking out more often than the Marlins. Their starter went four innings; their bullpen was nails. -- Miller

Passan's Inside Intel: The suspicion over the staying power of NL Central teams isn't limited to the Cardinals -- and that goes double for a Brewers team missing Yelich, and with a hobbled Lorenzo Cain and on-the-mend Ryan Braun. "Without their best player, I find it very difficult [to believe they advance deep into the playoffs], even though they've been incredibly resilient," one executive said. "I go back to the quality of the teams they played down the stretch. They didn't play the Cardinals. They finished with a dying Cubs team, the Reds, the Pirates, the Rockies. That doesn't mean anything other than they finished out their schedule incredibly well. But there's a guy named Scherzer. I don't care how hot you are."

The Brewers blitzed the postseason on the back of pitching that showed up in September after a three-month-long absence. Their June, July and August ERAs hovered between 4.86 and 4.92. In September: 3.01. As good as their starters were, their bullpen's dominance was as shocking as it was acute. In 66⅔ innings, the five-headed monster of Peralta, Suter, Pomeranz, Junior Guerra and closer Josh Hader struck out 97 (more than 13 per nine innings), walked 11 and posted a 1.76 ERA.

In the wild-card game, a scout who focused on the Brewers recently said, "I know the industry says you should start [Brandon] Woodruff. I'm telling you, if they start a guy like Suter or Gio [Gonzalez] -- the Nationals crush fastballs and struggle a lot more with changeups and change-of-pace guys. The only guy in their lineup who makes true adjustments is [Anthony] Rendon. You could basically eliminate five or six of the guys in their lineup with a change-of-pace guy. Once you get into the Nationals' bullpen, you have a shot -- though that bullpen may consist of [Stephen] Strasburg or [Patrick] Corbin." ... Woodruff will get the start, though he's not likely to be in there very long. He missed nearly two months because of an oblique strain and just came back in late September, not even reaching 40 pitches in either of his two starts.

Washington Nationals

93-69 | NL wild card | 9% World Series odds

Odds by round

Wild-card round: 61% vs. Brewers

NLDS: 40% vs. Dodgers

NLCS: 61% vs. Cardinals, 51% vs. Braves

World Series: 51% vs. Yankees, 34% vs. Astros. 57% vs. Twins, 59% vs. A's, 59% vs. Rays

What they do better than everyone else: The Nationals didn't have baseball's highest-scoring offense, but they did perhaps have its most diverse. And that diversity of options could serve Dave Martinez's club well in October. With NL MVP candidate Anthony Rendon leading the way, the Nats ranked second in senior circuit scoring despite ranking "just" sixth in homers. Washington was second in on-base percentage, next to last in strikeouts, second in steals and third on average. Home runs are important, and Washington certainly has power threats, beginning with Rendon and Juan Soto. But perhaps no other NL team has more ways to beat you on offense. -- Doolittle

One flaw that could doom them: Relief pitching has been a problem for Washington all season and the Nats enter the playoffs with a bullpen ERA closer to 6.00 than 5.00, one of the worst marks ever for an October participant. Even reliable closer Sean Doolittle has wavered at times during the second half, perhaps because of a heavy early workload. Who is going to step up? Fernando Rodney? Daniel Hudson? Wander Suero? The good thing for the Nats is that given the randomness of the playoffs and the volatility of relievers, anything can happen over the next few weeks. Given Washington's powerhouse rotation, if two or three relievers get hot, look out. -- Doolittle

Their Mr. Excitement: Trea Turner isn't their best player -- that's MVP candidate Anthony Rendon -- but he's their most exciting, setting the table at the top of the lineup with his blazing speed and a little pop. The defensive metrics say he's had a below-average season in the field, but he can certainly make the acrobatic play. -- Schoenfield

Their best player you've never heard of: Center fielder Victor Robles didn't appear in the majors as a fully formed offensive force, as many his top-prospect contemporaries have. But his defense, after some early-season sloppiness, has been nearly as impressive as Keston Hiura's or Fernando Tatis' hitting. Robles led all major league outfielders in Statcast's Outs Above Average, by a lot: Only seven other outfielders reached double digits at all, while Robles was at 21 extra outs. At Baseball-Reference, he led all major leaguers in defensive WAR. -- Miller

Their season in a game: The Nationals' bullpen is, you've heard, bad. It's worse than that: They have the fifth-highest bullpen ERA since modern bullpen usage took over in 1988, and the other four teams averaged 99 losses. But the Nationals are tied for the second-most runs in the NL this year, and their top three starters are all among the 15 or so best starting pitchers in the majors. The game: a 10-4 victory over Miami on Sept. 21. Stephen Strasburg threw seven shutout innings and led 4-0 when he departed. He got a no-decision, the lead blown just one out after the bullpen took over. The Nationals won anyway, with a six-run inning. -- Miller

Passan's Inside Intel: "I don't think many people realize it," said one scout who saw the Nationals recently, "but they can really hit." He's not wrong. Rendon should finish third in MVP voting. Soto is going to find himself there sooner than later. Turner is a righteous third banana in a lineup. Howie Kendrick is slashing .344/.395/.572 in more than 350 plate appearances. Since joining the Nationals, Asdrubal Cabrera has been reborn: .323/.404/.565 in nearly 150 PA. Add in Adam Eaton regularly in right field, Ryan Zimmerman and Matt Adams providing support for Kendrick at first, Yan Gomes and Kurt Suzuki at catcher, the underappreciated Robles and Baby Shark Gerardo Parra as a do-everything bench bat, and the Nationals have the sort of lineup that can really jump on left-handed starters -- three of whom they'll see in Clayton Kershaw, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Rich Hill if they can get past Milwaukee. ... "I'll take Rendon and Soto over any other duo in the NL," another scout said. "[Ronald] Acuna and [Freddie] Freeman. [Cody] Bellinger and [Max] Muncy. Give me Rendon and Soto."

Multiple scouts who have seen Max Scherzer recently don't exactly disagree with the Nationals' decision to start him in the wild-card game. "I just hope Davey has a quick hook," one scout said, "because he hasn't looked the same." ... While the Hunter Strickland and Roenis Elias deadline acquisitions didn't exactly work out, Hudson has been revelatory for the Nationals. "I'm not sure they make the playoffs without him," one evaluator said. Hudson served as closer for most of September, in which he threw nine scoreless appearances. His totals with Washington: 25 innings, 23-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 1.44 ERA. ... Among Hudson, Doolittle, Tanner Rainey and soon-to-be-long-man Austin Voth, the Nationals' beleaguered bullpen offers at least some salvation. It still doesn't compare to that of the Dodgers or Brewers, let alone the elite pens in the AL. ... "Victor Robles is going to be a star," one scout said of the Nationals' rookie center fielder. "He's already good enough to win a Gold Glove. If they get past the Brewers, he's going to save some runs against the Dodgers."

American League wild-card game

Rays at Athletics (8 ET, Wednesday on ESPN)

This is an underrated pitching matchup as Charlie Morton, who has been one of the best starters in the American League all season, faces Sean Manaea, who is 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA in his five starts since returning from last season's shoulder surgery. It will be interesting to see how quickly both managers go to their bullpens. Morton basically goes to 100 pitches -- usually six innings or so for him. Manaea has topped out at 96 pitches.

Two bullpen arms to keep an eye on: A's rookie lefties Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk. Luzardo debuted in September and Puk in late August, but both have already pitched themselves into key roles.

Hot hitters to watch: Oakland's Matt Olson has nine home runs in September; teammate Marcus Semien has hit .350 with eight home runs; Rays outfielder Austin Meadows hit .378 with nine home runs in September.

Tampa Bay Rays

96-66 | AL wild card | 2% World Series odds

Odds by round

Wild-card round: 46% vs. A's

ALDS: 28% vs. Astros

ALCS: 41% vs. Yankees, 47% vs. Twins

World Series: 29% vs. Dodgers, 41% vs. Braves, 51% vs. Cardinals, 57% vs. Brewers, 41% vs. Nationals

What they do better than everyone else: In a 2019 homer-happy context, the Rays' pitching staff keeps the ball in the yard. Tampa Bay has allowed the fewest homers in baseball with a style that works at the Tropicana Dome and away from it. The Rays are neck-and-neck with the A's for fewest home homers allowed, but also have given up fewer road homers than any other AL club. In possible playoff opponents New York (third overall in runs via the home run), Minnesota (fourth), Houston (seventh) and Oakland (11th), the Rays will be seeing offenses fueled by the long ball. If the Rays keep it in the park, their defense turn will turn it into outs. -- Doolittle

One flaw that could doom them: The Rays are easily the weakest offensive team on the AL side of the playoff bracket. They will need to keep scores low to win. Tampa Bay's collective OPS this season was just a shade better than the MLB average. However, against the other four AL postseason teams, their OPS was a combined .678, with an unsightly slash line of .228/.292/386. So while the Rays' strategy may involve keeping the score low, they are going to have to score a few runs, and they'll have to do it amid the harsher run-scoring environment of October baseball. -- Doolittle

Their Mr. Excitement: He's not at the plate, but Kevin Kiermaier was finally healthy again after a couple injury-plagued seasons. He still runs everything down in center field, can swipe a bag and pop an occasional home run. -- Schoenfield

Their best player you've never heard of: Reliever Nick Anderson had three of the most dominant months any pitcher had this season: In April he struck out 27 while unintentionally walking zero in 13 innings; in August he struck out 22 while unintentionally walking zero in 12 innings; and in September he struck out 19 while unintentionally walking one in 10 innings. He's been a little prone to homers and his May was a disaster, but this is the pitcher with the sixth-best FIP in baseball this season, and his strikeout rate with the Rays -- 52% -- bests the franchise single-season record by 10 percentage points. -- Miller

Their season in a game: Because of the way they use their pitching staff -- openers, quick hooks -- the Rays lead the majors by far in wins by their relief pitchers. They have the second most total relief appearances, the third most relief appearances of at least four outs, and the most relief appearances with zero days of rest. Because their bullpen is genuinely awesome-deep, flexible, just flat-out great, they are also tied for the best bullpen ERA in the majors, even while throwing 200 or so more innings than the typical team. The game that captures them: The 2-0 victory over Baltimore on Sept. 3. The anonymous journeyman reliever Andrew Kittredge started with a scoreless first, and a procession of dominant relievers (none making more than $1.3 million this year) followed with zero after zero, striking out 13 and walking nobody. Had this been a single starter pitching, his 9/5/0/0/0/13 pitching line would have produced the 12th highest game score in the majors this year. -- Miller

Passan's Inside Intel: The expectation is the Rays will go with Charlie Morton in the wild-card game, but one scout wonders if Tampa Bay should open with either Blake Snell or Tyler Glasnow, use Morton for the middle innings and then let manager Kevin Cash match up with a deep bullpen a batter at a time. ... "I would not want to play them," one scout said. "I was advancing them. They way they piece their bullpen together is ridiculous. I've seen Andrew Kittredge up in the second inning and seen him close. Chaz Roe pitched in the eighth inning one day and (Blake) Snell was struggling in the second and Roe picked him up. They don't work it conventionally. They've got (Brendan) McKay, who can give them some length. (Peter) Fairbanks is throwing hard. Kittredge is throwing hard. They've got sidearmers. (Nick) Anderson's got a 70(-grade on a scale of 20-to-80) breaking ball. Roe's slider. These guys have pieced together a very impressive group." ... One scout on Tyler Glasnow, who since coming off the injured list has struck out 21 in 12⅓ innings: "Glasnow looked unhittable." That's about right: In those four outings, opponents are slashing .119/.213/.262 against him.

Another scout on the Rays being the among the two lowest-scoring teams in the postseason field: "It's not a sexy lineup. But it is a team. There are guys that hit homers. There are guys that get on base. There are clutch guys." The clutch factor has manifested itself in 10 walk-off hits. A second scout's counterpoint: "Who's gonna drive in runs for them? There's just no one in that lineup that scares you. I don't think KC of old is who you comp them to. It's a deep lineup if they get rolling, but if they don't get rolling in one game, they're done." ... The answer of who's going to drive in runs: "Nobody talks about Austin Meadows. He's hitting .290 with 33 (homers)." And even better: Meadows has been a top-5 hitter in all of baseball over the past month, slashing .354/.443/.687.

Oakland Athletics

97-65 | AL wild card | 3% World Series odds

Odds by round

Wild-card round: 54% vs. Rays

ALDS: 28% vs. Astros

ALCS: 41% vs. Yankees. 47% vs. Twins

World Series: 29% vs. Dodgers, 41% vs. Braves, 51% vs. Cardinals, 57% vs. Brewers, 41% vs. Nationals

What they do better than everyone else: Oakland's pitching staff as a whole really pounds the strike zone with fastballs. No team threw a higher rate of pitches in the zone this season, and no AL team threw a higher rate of fastballs. Their collective contact rate is also high, so that allows Oakland to put its third-ranked defensive efficiency to work. However, the Athletics' pitchers are one of the more fly ball-prone staffs, a design that works great at home, where the A's went 52-29. Alas, the Athletics are a wild-card team, so their home mastery can only go so far in the postseason. -- Doolittle

One flaw that could doom them: Oakland is susceptible to swing-and-miss pitchers, which is to say just about every hurler who sees action in October. The Athletics are baseball's most-disciplined team in terms of chase rate, so opposing pitchers generally stayed in the zone against them. Only three teams swung and missed more often than launch-angle-obsessed Oakland, and we'll have to see how this take-and-rake strategy plays out against superior staffs. During the season, Oakland's .714 OPS this season against power pitchers ranks behind every other postseason team except for wild-card opponent Tampa Bay. -- Doolittle

Their Mr. Excitement: Marcus Semien should finish in the top-five of the MVP voting after a superb two-way season that saw him bash over 80 extra-base hits and potentially win his first Gold Glove. -- Schoenfield

Their best player you've never heard of: Outfielder Mark Canha entered his age-30 season this year as a career .239/.305/.424 hitter; he didn't even start in last year's wild-card game against the Yankees. But since he returned in mid-May from a stint on the injured list, he has been one of baseball's dozen best hitters, moving from eighth in the A's lineup to the cleanup spot. He's a local product (high school in San Jose, college in Berkeley) who was acquired a few years ago when the Miami Marlins left him exposed in the Rule 5 draft, free to anybody who would merely promise to keep him on a big league roster for a year. -- Miller

Their season in a game: The three AL teams who struck out fewer batters than Oakland this year averaged more than 100 losses, but the A's have such a strong defense that their contact staff survived even this juiced-ball season. Oakland finished third in defensive efficiency -- the measure of how many batted balls they turned into outs -- and, despite a fly ball staff, kept the ball in the yard, especially at home. Consider Mike Fiers' no-hitter against the Reds on May 7th: He struck out only six batters, tied for the fewest in a no-hitter since 2013, and "should" have allowed about four hits, according to Statcast. He even allowed one batted ball over the center field wall. But defense is a collaborative effort, and the A's defense is as significant as their pitching. -- Miller

Passan's Inside Intel: "They have a better chance to beat (the Astros) than New York," said a scout who recently saw the A's. "They have a better chance to beat them than anyone outside of the Dodgers." ... One scout sees benefits and detriments with the A's reliance on dynamic left-handed rookies Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk out of the bullpen. "I'm high on Puk and Luzardo -- and they've never pitched a game in October," he said. "It's tough to rely on young players. The moment is massive. There's only one game on TV. And they're in it. It's something the A's have consistently struggled with under Billy Beane -- and it's not his fault. The A's are always youthful, which is great, because every year in August and September you see them thrive, and it's due to them having a tremendous amount of youthful players. They're not tired."

"Count up their walk-off wins," one scout said, so we did: 10, tied with Tampa Bay for the most in the AL. "They battle you for 27 outs. They're deep through the lineup. That's where they're dangerous. And they're not afraid of Houston because they beat 'em six of eight times. I think Oakland is the only team that can keep Houston from the World Series." ... Sean Manaea, who's expected to play a pivotal role in the wild-card game, has blown away scouts as much as he has hitters in spite of a fastball with below-average velocity. "He's deceptive. He can command it. And he can spin it," said a scout who took in a recent start. "In today's game, everyone throws 95. A guy like Manaea can beat you with 90. He's an old-school pitcher. The guys you have to watch out for are the Manaeas."

NLDS: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves

The Braves won their most games since 2003, riding the big four of Freddie Freeman, Josh Donaldson, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies on offense and a solid pitching staff led by rookie Mike Soroka and free agent Dallas Keuchel. The bullpen additions at the trade deadline strengthened what had been a weakness. Acuna missed the last few games of the regular season, nursing a sore groin, and Freeman missed a few games the final week with a bone spur in his right elbow that has bothered him for two months. The Cardinals had to use second-half stud Jack Flaherty (0.91 ERA) to clinch the division title, but all is not lost: Flaherty can start Game 2 and, thanks to the 2-2-1 schedule, be back for Game 5 on full rest. The Cardinals' best chance of beating the Braves probably goes through two gems from Flaherty.

St. Louis Cardinals

91-71 | NL Central champs | 5% World Series odds

Odds by round

NLDS: 43% vs. Braves

NLCS: 32% vs. Dodgers, 58% vs. Brewers, 39% vs. Nationals

World Series: 41% vs. Yankees, 26% vs. Astros. 47% vs. Twins, 50% vs. A's, 50% vs. Rays

What they do better than everyone else: The Cardinals combine a somewhat old-school pitching design with a team defense that has gone from shaky to shimmering under Mike Shildt. The results have been hard to argue with and the keep-the-ball-in-play approach will be put to these test against the legion of long ball mashers in the postseason. St. Louis has been more solid than spectacular with its run prevention, with an error total that is one of the lowest team totals ever recorded. It's the type of thing that plays out over a long stretch of games, but how will that no-mistakes thing play in a short series? -- Doolittle

One flaw that could doom them: The St. Louis batsmen have been consistently befuddled by off-speed and breaking pitches, leading to an offense that has underachieved at the top line and been maddeningly inconsistent to boot. Part of this is by design -- the Cardinals have selected more for run prevention than run creation as they've doled out playing time. But none of this explains the sub-forecast numbers from Paul Goldschmidt and Matt Carpenter, the latter of whom lost his everyday spot. If Kolten Wong's sore hammy lingers, Carpenter may be back in the harness. So next week would be a good time for St. Louis' preordained sluggers to regress. Otherwise, it will be incumbent on the Redbirds' run-prevention units to keep scores low. -- Doolittle

Their Mr. Excitement: I have to break my rule here and pick a pitcher, because Jack Flaherty is pitching right now like Bob Gibson in 1968 or Pedro Martinez in 1999 or -- OK, maybe I'm getting carried away with those comparisons, but that's how dominant Flaherty has been in the second half. Here's another one: Orel Hershiser in 1988. Like Hershiser, Flaherty could carry the Cardinals on his back all the way to a title. -- Schoenfield

Their best player you've never heard of: It's the Cardinals' annual Mid-Round Draft Pick Who Becomes Incomprehensibly Valuable! Tommy Edman was ranked just 12th among Cardinals prospects before the season began but ended up taking playing time from Matt Carpenter at third base and finishing with 3.9 WAR -- more than Kris Bryant, Manny Machado, Josh Bell, Jose Altuve -- in just 92 games. He's fast, plays great defense at third or second and hit more homers in a half-season in the majors than he had hit at any minor league level. -- Miller

Their season in a game: The Cardinals' infield defense, especially since Edman took the bulk of playing time from Carpenter, has been extraordinary: They have the best defensive efficiency on ground balls this year, and all four everyday infielders -- Kolten Wong, Paul DeJong, Edman and Goldschmidt -- rate among the league's best at their positions by defensive runs saved. That has helped the Cardinals' ground ball-heavy staff outperform its FIP, especially Dakota Hudson, who leads all qualifying starters in ground ball rate. When the Cardinals beat the Giants 10-0 on Sept. 5, Hudson struck out only two batters. He got 11 ground balls (against six flies and three line drives), and those 11 ground balls produced 10 groundouts. -- Miller

Passan's Inside Intel: No team comes into the NL playoffs with a hotter rotation than the Cardinals -- and that goes beyond Flaherty, who, one scout said, "is the fourth-best pitcher in the playoffs behind [Justin] Verlander, [Gerrit] Cole and [Max] Scherzer." Hudson, who could get the Game 1 nod, "throws a really heavy ball and isn't afraid to work inside." He has thrown the fourth-most inside pitches in the NL this season, according to Tru Media. ... "Their offense is a lot like the Rays'," said one scout who saw them recently. "No one's a real threat, like [Mike] Trout or [Christian] Yelich, but no one is a zero."

There are quite a few skeptics of the Cardinals despite the recent success of their starters. While they had the best rotation ERA in the big leagues in September, their 4.54 bullpen ERA this month was 19th in baseball. Among playoff teams, only Washington was worse. "They won a weak division," said another scout who advanced them recently. "Cincinnati wasn't good. Pittsburgh wasn't good. The last six weeks the Cubs weren't very good. [The Cardinals] got away with mistakes that good teams won't make." ... "What's going to help them," the scout advancing St. Louis said, "is they don't kick the ball around." The Cardinals' 66 errors were the fewest in baseball -- less than half of the major league-worst 133 they committed a year ago.

Atlanta Braves

97-65 | NL East champs | 3% World Series odds

Odds by round

NLDS: 58% vs. Cardinals

NLCS: 36% vs. Dodgers, 49% vs. Nationals, 65% vs. Brewers

World Series: 48% vs. Yankees, 32% vs. Astros. 54% vs. Twins, 59% vs. A's, 59% vs. Rays

What they do better than everyone else: The Braves won 28 one-run games this season and went 13 games over .500 in such contests, easily the highest marks among all postseason clubs. Of course, this is a good news/bad news trait. Winning close games is certainly important during the playoffs, but the fact that the Braves were good at it during the regular season tells us little about whether they can keep excelling at this most volatile of categories. However, at least some of there good one-run record traces back to performing in the clutch: Atlanta led the NL in run differential in high-leverage situations. -- Doolittle

One flaw that could doom them: The bullpen has been a roller coaster for the Braves for much of the season, even after they picked up Chris Martin, Shane Greene and Mark Melancon during the season. Things have looked better during September, when Atlanta has posted a 3.60 bullpen ERA with Melancon locking down the ninth-inning role. Greene has pitched well of late, and lefty Sean Newcomb seems to be an emerging weapon after being demoted from the rotation early in the season. However promising the trends are, there are still fewer swing-and-miss dominators relative to MLB's other playoff teams. It remains a concern. -- Doolittle

Their Mr. Excitement: Ronald Acuña Jr. hit 41 home runs and stole 37 bases. He plays with the flair and the enthusiasm you would expect from a 21-year-old. Really, call him exciting doesn't do Acuna justice. We need to invent a more descriptive adjective for him. -- Schoenfield

Their best player you've never heard of: Only one left-handed batter has a bigger platoon split in his career than Matt Joyce -- it's Joc Pederson, if you're curious -- but he's always ready to mash a righty, even off the bench. This year, the Braves got Joyce the platoon advantage in 89% of his plate appearances and he rewarded them with the majors' seventh-best OBP, minimum 200 plate appearances. He started only eight games in the first half, but since mid-August he has been starting most days, giving the Braves a fifth good hitter. -- Miller

Their season in a game: The Braves' lineup is impressively top-heavy: They have four of the top 35 hitters in baseball, by Baseball-Reference's WAR, while their fifth-best hitter ranks just 228th. The clustering of Acuña, Albies, Freeman and Donaldson is offensive Gummiberry juice at the top of the order, with those four averaging more than 110 runs and 100 RBIs apiece. When the Braves beat the Twins, 12-7, on Aug. 6, those four had 11 hits, scored 10 runs, drove in eight, collectively hit for the cycle and even stole two bases. Their slash line for the day: .579/.636/1.053. The rest of the lineup, even with a DH instead of the pitcher hitting, batted .208/.240/.208, but the Braves' top four were still enough to batter a playoff team. -- Miller

Passan's Inside Intel: Scouts who have seen third baseman Josh Donaldson recently rave about his focus. "Never takes a pitch off," one said. His fielding, the scout said, is elite, and his bat this season has been awfully good, too: .259/.379/.521 with 37 home runs, 94 RBIs and 100 walks. He figures to cash in big on a three-year deal this winter. ... What makes the Braves capable of beating anyone? "A healthy [Ronald] Acuna, [Ozzie] Albies, [Freddie] Freeman and Donaldson," one scout said. A groin injury sidelined Acuna for the final half-week of the season, and Freeman has fought painful bone spurs in his elbow. Both are expected to be ready for Game 1 on Thursday against the Cardinals.

After months of mediocrity, Mike Foltynewicz's results in September started to resemble the All-Star version of himself from 2018. The stuff, however, is not the same. "He's still a power guy," said a scout who saw his most recent start Saturday, "but he's not going to blow you away like he did last year." He is lined up to start Game 2, with rookie Mike Soroka slated for Game 3, due to his road ERA coming in at less than half of his ERA at SunTrust Park (1.55 vs. 4.16). ... Blunt assessment on the Braves' arms from a scout: "I don't think their pitching is enough. I definitely think their bats are. If Folty deals, they might have a shot. But I don't love the back end of the bullpen." The combined September numbers for their three deadline bullpen acquisitions, closer Melancon and setup men Greene and Martin: 25 innings, 15 hits, three walks, 22 strikeouts and a 1.80 ERA.

NLDS: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. wild-card winner

The Dodgers won a franchise-record 106 games, but perhaps no team faces more pressure after two straight World Series defeats. The lefty power-hitting trio of Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson and Max Muncy combined for 118 home runs, but two rookies, catcher Will Smith and second baseman Gavin Lux, could play a huge part in their October success. Of course, it might ultimately come down to the two longtime Dodgers finally putting it all together in the postseason: Clayton Kershaw and Kenley Jansen.

Los Angeles Dodgers

106-56 | NL West champs | 26% World Series odds

Odds by round

NLDS: 73% vs. Brewers, 60% vs. Nats

NLCS: 70% vs. Cardinals. 64% vs. Braves

World Series: 63% vs. Yankees, 44% vs. Astros. 69% vs. Twins, 71% vs. A's, 71% vs. Rays

What they do better than everyone else: The Dodgers own the NL's best fielding-independent ERA because they are good at all three components of that metric. L.A. ranks second among senior circuit teams in strikeouts, and allowed both the fewest walks and fewest home runs. It's a pretty good combination. Add to this the fact that the Dodgers also led the NL in defensive efficiency, and you have a complete run-prevention formula. Indeed, no team gave up fewer runs this season, and L.A. led the NL in both home and road ERA. The Dodgers can hit, too, but their run prevention is what marks them as NL favorites. -- Doolittle

One flaw that could doom them: The default answer here all season has been closer Kenley Jansen, but that's kind of obvious and he's been throwing well lately, so let's pick on the starting pitchers. The Dodgers own -- by far -- baseball's best rotation ERA, but the numbers in September haven't been as sparkling. More important is who has been experiencing the down-ticks. Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw have not exactly been ace-like down the stretch, and Hyun-Jin Ryu has picked it up but is still not completely back to his first-half form. This is all probably nothing, but we've got to give Dodgers fans something to worry about. -- Doolittle

Their Mr. Excitement: Cody Bellinger is the favorite for MVP honors after one of the best seasons in Dodgers history. He not only bashes home runs, is a plus runner and plays a marvelous right field (while also filling in at first base and center field), but he looks ultra-cool doing it, with that upright stance as he crowds the plate and then unleashes one of the most unique swings in the game. -- Schoenfield

Their best player you've never heard of: The other other Will Smith is all but nonexistent on Google searches, but he was a hyped prospect entering the season, and after getting called up for good in early July he took over as the Dodgers' primary catcher. He has the second-highest launch angle in baseball this year, and, consequently, the 10th-highest HR/AB rate in the majors. -- Miller

Their season in a game: I'm not sure how many players you could randomly remove from the Dodgers' 40-man roster and still have a playoff team, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was more than a dozen. The Dodgers had 13 pitchers throw at least 25 innings with a better-than-average ERA, and 11 hitters bat at least 150 times with an above-average OPS. That extraordinary depth was probably most evident in a three-game series against the Rockies, capped off by a 6-3 victory over Colorado on June 23. Smith won it with a walk-off home run, the third game in a row in which a different rookie had a walk-off homer. Kenta Maeda started the game and went seven strong innings; the Dodgers are so deep he won't even make a postseason start. -- Miller

Passan's Inside Intel: After sitting Max Muncy against left-handed pitchers to start Games 1 and 2 of last year's World Series and Bellinger in Games 1, 2 and 5, the Dodgers are almost certain not to rely on platoons with their two best hitters this season. "They are clearly better against righties," one scout said. "But this idea that they can't hit lefties is bulls---. They can do damage against anyone. Bellinger and Muncy have killed lefties this year."

One scout believes the key not just to the Dodgers' postseason but the entire playoffs is Buehler. "He wants to be the guy," the scout said. "And he loves big games." Buehler, who had the worst ERA among Dodgers starters in September, spent his last start tinkering with mechanics. ... "I'm not sure any team is more effective at working in the upper part of the zone," another scout said. "It's hard because you want to lay off those pitches, but they do a great job of moving hitters' eye levels and sequencing."

The construction of the Dodgers' bullpen could vary from round to round, depending on the matchups they face. The certainties: closer Jansen, Maeda, Julio Urias and Pedro Baez. While Joe Kelly's undisclosed ailment that has kept him out since Sept. 18 (though he faced two batters and threw six pitches against the Giants on Sunday) is of concern, there are plenty of arms to choose from otherwise, chief among them rookies Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin. Other options include Casey Sadler, Adam Kolarek, Ross Stripling, Caleb Ferguson, Yimi Garcia and Josh Sborz.

ALDS: Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees

In the year of the home run, it's fitting that the two teams that cracked the 300 barrier will face each other in the ultimate Home Run Derby. The Twins had a record five players top 30 home runs, led by Nelson Cruz's 41. The Yankees have power up and down the lineup, with Gleyber Torres leading the team with 38. They also have Giancarlo Stanton back after he missed most of the season. Everyone will point to the Yankees' edge in the bullpen, but Minnesota's top three of Taylor Rogers, Trevor May and Tyler Duffey all had ERAs under 3.00, and veteran Sergio Romo has three World Series rings.

The cloud hanging over the Twins' franchise: They lost ALDS to the Yankees in 2003, 2004, 2009 and 2010, and the Twins have lost 13 straight playoffs games since the first game of the 2004 ALDS.

Minnesota Twins

101-61 | AL Central champs | 7% World Series odds

Odds by round

ALDS: 43% vs. Yankees

ALCS: 27% vs. Astros, 54% vs. A's, 54% vs. Rays

World Series: 31% vs. Dodgers, 46% vs. Braves, 53% vs. Cardinals, 60% vs. Brewers, 43% vs. Nationals

What they do better than everyone else: Since we're awarding the crown of best homer-hitting team to the Yankees, that makes it more difficult to nail down the Twins' standout trait. Across the board, everything the Twins do, the Yankees do a little better -- and the Astros' offense is better than both of them. But here's one for Minnesota: No team has played better away from home. The Twins have flown past the 50-win mark away from Target Field. Minnesota has dropped two out of three at both Houston and New York this season, but at least we know they will be comfortable playing in hostile territories. -- Doolittle

One flaw that could doom them: Because of injuries and performance dips, the Twins are really struggling to find functional starting pitching as the postseason dawns. Michael Pineda was rolling but was suspended by MLB. Jose Berrios has been solid down the stretch but not dominant. Jake Odorizzi has been pretty dominant but tweaked his hamstring recently. Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez have been getting bombed. Piecing all of this together, perhaps with bullpenning and/or use of an opener is going to be an enormous challenge for first-year manager Rocco Baldelli. Rookie surprise Randy Dobnak has thrown well and figures to be part of the solution in some capacity. -- Doolittle

Their Mr. Excitement: You could pick any of their record-setting five players who hit 30-plus home runs, especially with defensive whiz Byron Buxton out for the season. It seems weird to pick a 39-year-old designated hitter here, but Nelson Cruz feels like the focal point of this offense, a slugger who might have hit 50 if he hadn't missed 40 games. Don't forget: Cruz has a storied postseason history with 16 home runs in 41 games. -- Schoenfield

Their best player you've never heard of: A few things about Mitch Garver: His slugging percentage is the seventh-highest ever for a catcher, minimum 300 plate appearances; with 31 home runs in 311 at-bats, he had a HR/AB rate that only 11 big leaguers in history have ever surpassed in a season; he has the sixth-highest slugging percentage ever for a leadoff hitter (min. 100 PA in that spot); and he started the year as a 28-year-old backup catcher with seven career home runs. -- Miller

Their season in a game: The Twins have the highest fly ball rate in baseball and became the first team ever to hit 300 homers in a season. They are especially aggressive early in the count, have the lowest pitches/plate appearance among playoff teams, and often use a catcher with an extraordinary home run rate and zero career steals to lead off. And so, the game: a 16-7 win over the Orioles, April 20. The Twins hit 28 fly balls and only 13 grounders, and jumped on nine first pitches for two homers and two singles. Of course, they homered eight times. -- Miller

Passan's Inside Intel: "I think you're going to see this with a lot of teams," a scout said, "but it really goes for Minnesota: You can't give them fastballs. There's going to be so much spin and junk. They can hit it, but they just are so good at destroying fastballs, you can't give it to them." ... The key for the Twins, according to another scout: right-handed reliever Tyler Duffey. "He's turned into a real dude," the scout said. "They were kicking themselves after the [Ryan] Pressly deal (in which they traded him to Houston), but they might have a guy that's better." To wit: Until Saturday, Duffey hadn't allowed a run since July 23, spanning 26 outings. ... "I trust their [starting pitchers] to work into the fifth," the first scout said. "If the Yankees get a third time through the lineup, it's gonna be trouble." ... "You can't rely on working up in the zone against them," said a scout who recently advanced the Twins. "They will punish high pitches."

New York Yankees

103-59 | AL East champs | 11% World Series odds

Odds by round

ALDS: 57% vs. Twins

ALCS: 32% vs. Astros. 59% vs. A's, 59% vs. Rays

World Series: 37% vs. Dodgers, 52% vs. Braves, 59% vs. Cardinals, 65% vs. Brewers, 49% vs. Nationals

What they do better than everyone else: Despite their second-half battle with Minnesota for all-time supremacy in the single-season home runs category, no team mashes like the Bombers, especially a quasi-healthy version of this club. Even if Edwin Encarnacion can't go, the Yankees still would have at least a dozen healthy double-digit home run hitters to pick from in their playoff lineups. Giancarlo Stanton's season was wrecked by injury but, then again, he's probably looking to make something out his 2019 experience. Expect New York to live and die with the long ball as they've done all season during the year of the home run. -- Doolittle

One flaw that could doom them: The troubles of the Yankees' starting rotation this season have been puzzled over to a level that rates somewhere between overblown and hysterical. In a postseason context, the Yankees are set up to navigate around their rotation by letting them throw all-out for a couple of trips through opposing batting orders before Aaron Boone turns it over to his deep and intimidating bullpen. James Paxton is the only rotation member likely to be used as a traditional starter. Nevertheless, getting to the Yankees early and undermining the leveraged opportunities for Boone's bullpen is the best path to beating New York. -- Doolittle

Their Mr. Excitement: He's not the team MVP in 2019, but this has to be Aaron Judge. After missing most of May and June, he's finished strong with 15 home runs the final two months, so he can crush any mistake. Then there's the underrated aspect of his game: Judge is a terrific right fielder with range and a strong arm, a Gold Glover in the league if it didn't have Mookie Betts. Judge's first playoff series in 2017 was a rough one when he struck out 16 times in 20 at-bats against Cleveland, but he has seven home runs and a .627 slugging percentage in 18 career playoff games. -- Schoenfield

Their best player you've never heard of: In 2018, Gio Urshela hit .286/.326/.393-in Triple-A, for three different organizations. It's not clear he'd have appeared in a single game for the Yankees this year if not for a fluke diving injury to starting third baseman Miguel Andujar in the third game of the season. Urshela had one of the league's best line drive rates and the 17th best expected batting average (according to Statcast measures). If he had the 26 extra plate appearances needed to qualify, he would have finished fourth in the AL in batting average, batting .314/.355/.534 overall. Plays a solid third base, too, unlike the player whose unfortunate injury gave him his opportunity. -- Miller

Their season in a game: The three storylines about the Yankees this year: extraordinary depth; wildly outperforming any expectations from what has been, essentially, their second-string lineup for much of the year; extraordinary bullpen dominance, with four relievers averaging at least 12 Ks per nine innings (unprecedented) and a fifth, Zack Britton, whose ERA is under 2.00; and extraordinary power, with nearly two homers per game. Their game: a 5-2 win over San Diego on May 27. Both runs were allowed by their "bulk" reliever, David Hale; before and after him, Chad Green, Adam Ottavino, Tommy Kahnle, Britton and Aroldis Chapman threw five shutout innings, striking out nine and allowing three baserunners. Three Yankees homered, including Clint Frazier (starting in right field for the injured Aaron Judge), who drove in the Yankees' first run. Frazier was later replaced by Cameron Maybin, who drove in the final run. Their No. 9 hitter, Brett Gardner, homered too; he would hit 27 on the year. So much power, on the mound and at the plate. -- Miller

Passan's Inside Intel: For all of the Yankees' regular-season excellence and perseverance, scouts who have seen them recently believe they're vulnerable. "They are very beatable," one scout said. "I say that with all due respect to the guys they have injured. You can pitch to a lot of their guys. I was shocked at how much you can pitch to DJ LeMahieu. [Aaron] Judge and Gleyber [Torres], you can get both those guys out. [Edwin] Encarnacion is more of a mistake guy." ... Hold on. Pitch to LeMahieu, who is batting .331 and should get down-ballot MVP votes this season? "If you jam him inside and play him to pull," another scout concurred, "he'll get himself out." ... Another scout's slightly more sanguine take: "They have a great bullpen ... " Then he followed "... and they're going to get to it early. I think that could be a problem.

Losing [Domingo] German (to a domestic violence-related incident) is a huge factor for them. He was either a swingman to get them through 4-5-6 or he was going to start. They just don't have the depth in that rotation." ... There remain believers, including one front-office executive: "They won almost 105 games with the most players ever on the injured list. I don't bet against that."

ALDS: Houston Astros vs. wild-card winner

The Astros enter the postseason as the World Series favorite for obvious reasons and figure to have a big edge over either the Rays or A's here. Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke form an imposing rotation trio. The powerful offense ranked third in the majors in home runs, first in batting average and first in lowest strikeout rate. The bullpen had the third-best ERA in the majors. They ranked fourth in defensive runs saved. Alex Bregman is an MVP candidate and Michael Brantley and rookie slugger Yordan Alvarez provide help from the left side that the team lacked a year ago. It's a team without a weakness and it begins the postseason in better health than last season (although Carlos Correa's back is a concern).

Houston Astros

107-55 | AL West champs | 33% World Series odds

Odds by round

ALDS: 72% vs. A's, 72% vs. Rays

ALCS: 68% vs. Yankees, 73% vs. Twins

World Series: 56% vs. Dodgers, 68% vs. Braves, 74% vs. Cardinals, 79% vs. Brewers, 66% vs. Nationals

What they do better than everyone else: There are a lot of things the Astros do better than everybody else, but their rotation is the most fearsome part of the Houston dossier at the moment. Nationals fans might dispute whether Houston has the better playoff rotation, but no one can combine the track records of Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke with the kind of recent dominance that trio has shown. Sure, there could be a step down when Houston gets to its No. 4 but, then again, given the way rookie Jose Urquidy has thrown lately, concerns about Wade Miley might be irrelevant. -- Doolittle

One flaw that could doom them: The Astros are a very complete team. If anything, you look at the bullpen as a possible weakness, if only in relation to the rest of the roster. Houston's save percentage is better than average and their rate of stranding inherited runners ranks fifth. So we're not talking glaring weaknesses here. There's no lefty in the bullpen, unless Miley is moved there, but that hasn't been a problem for the Astros all season. Closer Roberto Osuna has been excellent and has a lot of postseason experience. If he slumps, chaos ensues. There's just no reason to think he'll slump. -- Doolittle

Their Mr. Excitement: Just one? That's like choosing your favorite Beatle or your favorite "Seinfeld" episode or your favorite variation of Diamondbacks uniform. Look, Verlander and Cole are going to finish 1-2 in the Cy Young voting and are capable of a dozen strikeouts every time out, but they don't play every day. Yordan Alvarez is a rookie slugger of prodigious ability, but he doesn't play in the field. George Springer had his best season and has been a World Series MVP. Jose Altuve is still a marvel. But for 2019, I have to go with Alex Bregman, who may be the AL MVP, plays all over the infield (whether at shortstop or in a shift), loves the spotlight and has the energy to earn the title Mr. Excitement. -- Schoenfield

Their best player you've never heard of: Maybe the league's most overlooked reliever over the past five years, Will Harris has the fifth-best ERA+ of any pitcher in that stretch -- better than Craig Kimbrel, better than Kenley Jansen -- while bouncing between roles in the Houston bullpen. On 20 other teams, he'd be the established closer with 175 career saves. But with Houston he settles for just his few saves a year -- when the regular closer is struggling or unavailable -- as well as his annual postseason bonus check. -- Miller

Their season in a game: The Astros' pitching was extraordinary this year, led by Cole and Verlander. But in the year of the juiced ball, even the two Cy Young co-favorites were vulnerable to home runs. The offense, meanwhile, led the majors in walks drawn and had the fewest strikeouts, as Houston set a franchise record for wins. The game, then: a 14-3 win over Colorado, Aug. 7. Cole struck out 10 and walked nobody in six innings, allowing only two runs on two solo homers. The Astros walked nine times, struck out only nine times, and, fittingly for a team that began the season with 96% playoff odds, had a big lead after the first inning. It was all cruising after that. -- Miller

Passan's Inside Intel: The questionable status of shortstop Carlos Correa could alter the makeup of the Astros' lineup -- but not irreparably. Alex Bregman has played admirably at shortstop all season. And considering how Correa's balky back has hampered him, he is at best a question mark. ... The construction of the Astros' roster is of great interest. Even without Correa, their depth is evident. Guarantees to make the roster: Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, George Springer, Michael Brantley, Yuli Gurriel, Martin Maldonado and Robinson Chirinos. Depending on how many pitchers the Astros carry, there could be an odd man out among the remaining players: Josh Reddick, Kyle Tucker, Jake Marisnick, Abraham Toro, Myles Straw and Aledmys Diaz.

If you're going to beat the Astros, the clearest path may be by dialing down the radar-gun numbers. "They murder fastballs," said one scout who has advanced them most of September. "They're the best breaking-ball-hitting team in the big leagues. But they struggle with changeups and splitters and soft stuff."

"You have to jump on Cole and Miley early," another scout said. "Because if you do, they don't have that two- or three-inning, young power guy to bridge the gap to the late innings. You can take advantage of that." ... "They just take such good at-bats," a third scout said. "Even when they're behind." He's right: Astros hitters have the best OPS in baseball of players down in the count. ... Nearly every evaluator believes the Astros are going to win the World Series. Said one: "Best team on paper. They're deep in the rotation. They're built for a five- and seven-game series. The first three starters for the Astros might be the three best starters in the postseason. You're not gonna score a lot."

World indoor champion hopes a more rhythmical approach to his craft will see him quickstep his way to success

When Andrew Pozzi turned up to training to find salsa music playing and was then told to hurdle along to the beat, he began to wonder what he might have let himself in for following his move to work with Santiago Antunez.

However, when you consider that “rhythm is everything” to the hurdles coaching guru, it all begins to make sense.

It was late last year that Pozzi, the world indoor champion, took the decision to relocate to Formia in Italy and come under the guidance of the Cuban who led Anier Garcia and Dayron Robles to Olympic 110m hurdles gold in 2000 and 2008.

The Briton has found a completely different approach to the art of hurdling there. Under Antunez, technique comes first before any thoughts move towards strength and speed.

It has brought consistency this season for Pozzi, if not spectacularly quick times, although he has had injury interruptions to contend with once again which have hardly helped his cause.

Yet his coach is not one to get immediately hung up on how quickly his pupil is making the journey from A to B, more the manner of how he is travelling.

Ingrain the technical side first, get the rhythm and timing right and the speed will follow.

“He (Sanitago) has remarked a lot that the Cuban system, which I guess he kind of developed, is very different to anything he’s seen in Europe,” says Pozzi. “He said, from his perspective, that in Europe there’s a real rush to make everything quantifiable – you have to run super fast on the track, you have to lift heavier and heavier weights in the gym – but he feels co-ordination, mobility and technique is very overlooked.

“He said in Cuba that, during their development – until much, much later than we do in Europe – all they focus on is co-ordination and technique stuff. That means that, when they start increasing their physicality in the gym and on the track the technique is good and everything is very efficient.”

And this is where the dance lessons come in.

“In the winter we were doing a lot of rhythm-based exercises,” continues Pozzi. “We had salsa music on and all this stuff.

“You have various hurdles out, there’s music playing and for a set period of time you’re going back and forth over these hurdles. It’s for hip mobility, for rhythm and it was very strange. I wondered what I’d let myself in for in the first couple of weeks.

“To him, rhythm is everything and that’s something I really need work on because the consistency of my times have got better but, if you take the Brussels Diamond League (he was sixth in 13.50) as an example, I was moving quite strongly for the first half or three quarters of the race but there was a lack of rhythm there and when that’s the case it becomes much harder to maintain your speed and your velocity.”

Getting his timing and footwork right is key, then, albeit that any call from Strictly Come Dancing will have to wait for the moment. First up is the business of the IAAF World Championships in Doha.

Given the substantial life and training changes he’s made, does it mean there has been a shift in Pozzi’s expectations? The man himself admits he thought there would be. Antunez felt differently.

“When I approached Santiago about working with him he made it very clear that he was used to top performances and used to winning medals at championships and he said that, based on what he knew of myself as an athlete and what he could see from our early work together that that was entirely the aim,” adds Pozzi.

“He said that, from his point of view, he wouldn’t have me going to Doha unless it was with the outlook of winning a medal.

“He said if it looked impossible then we’d stop and prepare for Tokyo next year but he said that’s not where we’re at.”

Check out the dedicated Doha 2019 section on our website here.

San Jose Sharks winger Evander Kane called his ejection for abuse of officials on Sunday night "an absolute joke," claiming there's a double standard in the way NHL refs treat him.

At 12 minutes, 51 seconds of the third period in a preseason loss at the Vegas Golden Knights, Kane and Deryk Engelland got into an altercation after the Knights' defenseman held Kane's stick following a hit by the Sharks' forward.

Engelland cross-checked Kane, and Kane responded with a slash that appeared to also make contact with linesman Kiel Murchison. As Kane skated back up the ice, Murchison grabbed the front of Kane's jersey, apparently trying to prevent an escalation with Engelland, and they tumbled to the ice.

The officials gave both players misconduct penalties, but Kane was ejected for abuse of officials. He yelled at the refs from the Sharks' bench before heading to the dressing room.

Evander Kane gets ejected in his last preseason game for "abuse of officials." pic.twitter.com/OAKcqPWf2I

— Brady Trettenero (@BradyTrett) September 30, 2019

"I get kicked out of the game for getting jumped from behind by a referee. I've never seen a ref take five strides," Kane said after the 5-1 defeat. "If you look at his face, he's getting all this power and he's trying to drive me into the ice, which is what he did. That's unbelievable. Talk about abuse of an official? How about abuse of a player? It's an absolute joke."

Kane, 28, said there was no explanation for his ejection.

"I was just skating up the ice. Minding my own business, and next thing you know, I get driven into the ice by one of the officials. I wasn't even engaged with one of their players," he said. "Explain that to me, how I get kicked out of the game for that. Baffling."

Before his ejection, Kane was penalized for roughing and then fighting Knights forward Valentin Zykov. He said his treatment at the hands of the linesman was part of a larger pattern, and that officials react to him in a different way than they do with other players.

"It's funny ... if you look at the way I get treated out there when it comes to the scrums, or when the other team is trying to do [something] to me, there's a massive difference compared to everybody else on the ice," he said.

Kane was tied with Colorado defenseman Ian Cole for the NHL lead with three game misconducts last season.

SAN JOSE, Calif. -- San Jose Earthquakes head coach Matias Almeyda has asked for his players to get the same treatment from referees as MLS stars Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Carlos Vela, following his team's 1-0 loss to the Seattle Sounders on Sunday.

San Jose saw Tommy Thompson sent off in the 56th minute as the Earthquakes extended its losing streak to five games and will now need a victory next Sunday on the road to Portland Timbers to guarantee a playoff spot.

Cristian Espinoza, Chris Wondolowski and Almeyda were all suspended for the midweek 2-1 loss to Philadelphia Union, while Almeyda has been sent off twice in recent weeks, the first time against LAFC on Aug. 21 and the second in the away loss to Atlanta on Sept. 21.

"Every game we have something that doesn't go our way," said Almeyda in a news conference after the game. "Our players know they shouldn't hit. They know they should respect the referees. They know they have to put their soul into it every time they play, which they do. I think we're one of the teams that fouls the least, with one of the least amounts of red cards.

"I've been sent off more than the players, and I don't know why [I've been sent off], either.

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"Hopefully next season will be a little more even. We live in a democracy and we live in a place like California where there is equality in many aspects. We want that to carry over into soccer and really see it."

Almeyda suggested that fouls are called differently for different players and that the officiating hasn't benefited his team of late.

"If they foul [Shea] Salinas, it should be judged in the same way as if they've fouled Vela," said Almeyda.

"And if they foul [Chris] Wondolowski the player is judged as if he was Ibrahimovic.

"The day that there is real equality, we'll have better football. Many of us risk our careers to come to this league. Some are content and others are losing hoping."

Almeyda's team dominated possession against the Sounders -- who went down to 10 players when Xavier Arreaga was sent off in the 71st minute -- but Jordan Morris netted a breakaway goal in second-half injury time, leaving the former Chivas coach feeling "impotent" about the ways things have gone this season in terms of the officiating.

"Many of us risked our careers in coming to this league," he said. "Some are happy, others are losing hope. I met with first quality directors, GMs, owners, whatever, everybody that works here. There's few times I've seen that in football. I feel honored being in this place, but I have a lot of impotence with what has happened throughout the season.

"I'm not saying this as a justification, I'm saying this as a warning, because we all have our pride, and we all dedicate passion, time and love to this.

"Since I've been living here, on Wednesday my father is having surgery again. He's 8,000 kilometers away. He had surgery three months ago. My work is here, my respect is here, toward [the press], the refs, the league, the directors, the club that signed me. I'm not feeling the same treatment."

San Jose travels to Portland on the final day of the regular season. The Quakes can reach the postseason if they defeat the Timbers -- who are two points in front in sixth place -- or if they tie and Dallas loses. Almeyda said regardless of what happens, he's proud of his team's improvement, which has seen San Jose already garner 24 more points in the standings than they did a year ago.

"I told them that if on the first day of preseason, if they were to have brought in a contract where they said we would have had a chance to make the playoffs on the last game, we all would have signed that contract," he said.

"This team has changed a lot, so I can't just stick with if we get in or not. I stick with something a lot deeper. A team that had 21 points last year, and with 85 percent of the same players we tried to be protagonists and competitive. They are and they were throughout the season. There's a reality that some teams player better than us and are better than us. But there's another reality that you cannot hide, which is the improvement of this team."