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There are only 10 days left in MLB's regular season, but five playoff spots are still up for grabs. As the hunt for October comes down to a few huge late-season series, we're about to find out who's in and who's out.

Here's what we'll be watching this weekend:

There's still a lot to be decided in the NL playoff chase, with Cardinals-Cubs the big matchup, and Pirates-Brewers and Nats-Marlins also impactful series. Among the four teams fighting for three spots (NL Central, two wild cards), what single factor will have the biggest role in determining who's in and who's out?

Eddie Matz: Washington's schedule. The Cards, Cubs and Brewers all play six games during the final week of the season. Meanwhile, thanks to having no off day and playing a makeup doubleheader, the Nationals are slated for eight games over the final seven days. That'd be tough sledding for any club, but especially so for the Nats, whose bullpen has about as much depth as a kiddie pool. It doesn't help that Washington's competition next week (the Phillies and Indians) is the toughest among this quartet of contenders. If the Nats manage to hang on and make it to the wild-card game, they certainly will have earned it. (But I don't think they're going to earn it.)

Sam Miller: The Brewers' bullpen. The other three teams in the race all have relatively traditional workhorse rotations -- each has four starters who will qualify for the ERA title, and the Brewers have none. Rather, like last year, their September success has come with the congealment of the bullpen, pieces picked up throughout the year, or shuffled into new roles, or simply peaking at the right time. This month has been the Milwaukee bullpen's finest, with season-best walk and strikeout rates and a season-best ERA. That's crucial: The Brewers' rotation is built to go four or five innings per start -- only two starters have gone deeper than that this month, only two have thrown as many as 90 pitches, and none has gone seven or thrown 100. Milwaukee showed us last year what a hot bullpen can do in short, urgent bursts, and they're trying to do it again, with an almost all-new cast (plus Josh Hader).

David Schoenfield: I'm going with the Cubs' offense -- the one currently playing without Javier Baez and that just got Anthony Rizzo back after that sprained ankle -- improbably he was on a scooter Wednesday and started Thursday. I mean, how far can Nico Hoerner carry this team on his back? The Cardinals and Nationals also have a little more margin for error, and the Brewers have the easiest schedule, so the Cubs have their backs up against the wall. They will also end the season with six games on the road -- where they are a miserable 31-44 this season. They will also be reminded of how the offense tired down the stretch last year. Good luck, boys.

In the AL, the series to watch are Red Sox-Rays, Rangers-A's and the interleague Phillies-Indians matchup (Sunday Night Baseball, 6:30 p.m. ET, ESPN), with Tampa Bay, Oakland and Cleveland in the running for the two wild-card spots. Same question as above: What is the most important factor in the AL playoff race?

Matz: Healed hurlers. The A's have welcomed back stud left-hander Sean Manaea and top prospect Jesus Luzardo. Reigning Cy Young winner Blake Snell and early season breakout star Tyler Glasnow have returned to the Rays. Meanwhile, the Indians haven't been quite as fortunate, as ace Corey Kluber remains sidelined and fellow right-hander Carlos Carrasco has been limited to six outs or fewer since coming back earlier this month. For a Cleveland team currently on the outside looking in, that's suboptimal.

Miller: Caveat: Sometimes really good teams rest their players as they gear up for their playoff assignment, and sometimes really bad teams are, by September, hot or filled with great call-ups. But the schedule gap between the A's and the Rays is about as wide as Oakland could hope for: The Rangers, Mariners and Angels have a combined winning percentage of .441, and half of their good players are out for the year. Meanwhile, the Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays are a combined .535. (Cleveland's opponents: .483.) Again, that's not destiny. But baseball games are zero-sum affairs, and every ounce of quality your opponents have is as significant as whatever ounces you, yourself have. It makes it really unlikely the A's could lose this by any method other than total collapse.

Schoenfield: The A's lead the wild-card race and have that easy schedule, so I think they're in. So I'm looking at the Rays and Indians and point to the Tampa Bay rotation ... bullpen. As Eddie said, Snell and Glasnow just returned, but Snell went only two innings and Glasnow has gone two and three. That means Kevin Cash has to get a lot of work from his relievers in games those two start. It's remarkable, really: Charlie Morton has been the only constant in the rotation all season. In the bullpen, keep an eye on Nick Anderson. Since he came over from the Marlins, he has pitched 18 innings, given up nine hits, struck out 35 and issued zero unintentional walks.

The Year of the Home Run continues unabated, with the Twins and Yankees on the verge of reaching 300 each. In five words (no more, no less), sum up your feelings on this season's long-ball binge.

Matz: Triples are way more exciting.

Miller: Eras, not players, break records.

Schoenfield: It was fun at first.


PICK 'EM TIME

Setting aside Thursday's opener to the four-game Cardinals-Cubs series, which team will take two of three (or three of three) this weekend at Wrigley?

Matz: The Russell-less, Baez-less and Rizzo-less Cubs have been able to get by recently against mediocre competition. The Cards are far from mediocre these days. Therefore, I'll take them.

Miller: Somebody should mention that the Cubs have been invincible at home this year, though I don't really believe that's likely to persist. Still, even regular, non-invincible home-field advantage is significant, and the Cubs are now past Jack Flaherty in this series and get to skip the resurgent Adam Wainwright. So I'll take them against the three worst FIPs in the Cardinals' rotation, without much conviction.

Schoenfield: The Cubs dig down and take two of three weekend games. Because Nico Hoerner. And because we want a four-way tie between the NL Central teams and the Nationals.

Among the players on the seven teams fighting for a playoff spot (Rays, A's, Indians, Nationals, Cardinals, Cubs and Brewers), who will have the most total bases this weekend?

Matz: Drawing the Pirates for the final stretch of a pennant chase/MVP race is like getting the million-dollar question on "Who Wants To Be A Millionaire" when you have all your lifelines left. And your uncle is a writer on the show. And he just had dinner at your house and told you what the million-dollar question (and answer) was going to be for your upcoming episode. Sadly, Christian Yelich is not an option. So I'll take Keston Hiura.

Miller: Baseball is weird and anything can happen, but drawing the Marlins for the final stretch of a pennant chase/MVP race is like getting a Final Jeopardy category on which you did your doctoral research. I'll take Anthony Rendon.

Schoenfield: Funny thing, Nicholas Castellanos is playing these days like the baseball version of Ken Jennings and James Holzhauer. And speaking of the Daily Double, that's what Castellanos hits every day. He's only four doubles shy of becoming the first player since 1936 to reach 60 doubles.


TWO TRUE OUTCOMES

Home run hitters

Matz: Yordan Alvarez

Miller: Eugenio Suarez

Schoenfield: Jorge Soler

Strikeout pitchers

Matz: Yu Darvish

Miller: Shane Bieber

Schoenfield: Lance Lynn for the title

A year ago, the Oakland A's had one of the best offenses in baseball. But, in a strange quirk, they were easily the league's worst against high-velocity fastballs: a league-low .191 batting average against pitches over 95 mph, a league-low .268 weighted on-base average, a league-low 72.3 percent contact rate.

Strange quirks like this don't matter much in a long season. Only about 12 percent of pitches are over 95 mph, and if you can smash everything else it washes out. But in the postseason, there are far more high-velocity fastballs, and an entire season can come down to one game against a flood of them. The quirk looks like a real liability when, say, you draw the New York Yankees in a winner-take-all wild-card game:

That's 154 pitches, 62 of them over 95 mph, more than triple the regular-season rate. The A's scratched out only two runs, and in retrospect you could convince yourself the game was over before it began.

And the playoff team that hit 95-mph fastballs best last year, you might ask? It was the Boston Red Sox, as a matter of fact. The World Series champs.

There's a reasonable hypothesis here: That, beyond overall team quality, a playoff team's chances might also be affected by how well it can hit high-velocity fastballs. All of the playoff teams this year have good offenses during regular-season baseball, but postseason baseball isn't regular. The terrain shifts: More innings go to relievers (and to starters pitching in relief). More innings go to the very best pitchers. Adrenaline and high stakes might give pitchers extra oomph. As a result, about twice as many pitches are delivered faster than 95 mph in the postseason. This has remained true even as 95 has become more common in the regular season. Last year, about one in four postseason pitches was at least 95, and almost half of fastballs were.

If the terrain shifts, then it should favor the team that most thrives on the new terrain, the way a clay court might favor one great tennis player over an equally (but differently) great tennis player.

This October, there is an intimidating Against High-Velocity story looming, in Los Angeles. The Dodgers are fantastic against high velocity, almost stunningly so. The Astros, a seemingly equal superteam in most respects, have been quite poor against high velocity this year. We know both of these teams are great, but are we moving to a clay court that favors one team over the other? Are the Dodgers built for October in a way Houston isn't? Will the reasonable hypothesis survive testing?

Let's answer three questions: Are we measuring the right thing? Is the thing we're measuring real or fluke? Does it matter enough to matter?

Are we measuring the right thing?

It's not enough to say the Dodgers hit .276/.354/.485 against 95-plus and the Astros hit only .234/.335/.390. For one thing, that only captures each team's performance on pitches that end at-bats. If the Dodgers foul off a first-pitch fastball down the middle, or chase a 2-0 fastball out of the zone and miss it, they would be failing against those pitches but without affecting their slash line.

So we can't just look at wOBA. We have to look at wOBA and chase rate -- to see what percentage of pitches out of the zone the team is wisely laying off -- and whiff rate, so we're tracking hitter performance throughout the at-bat. We might even look at pull rate, and isolated power.

For another, those stats don't capture the degree to which each team is better or worse than usual on that specific terrain. We already know each team has been tremendously successful this year, and if the Astros hit .234/.335/.390 against every pitch, of every velocity, all the time, it wouldn't much matter if 10, 20 or 99 percent of pitches came in so fast. They would succeed equally, regardless of the shifting terrain. The point here is to see if these teams are particularly suited to, or particularly vulnerable to, faster pitches.

To figure that out, we looked at how each team did against 95-plus, compared to how they did against all other fastballs, and we did it for all five measures listed above: wOBA, chase rate, whiff rate, pull rate and isolated power. We then ranked the teams in each of the five measures, and sorted them by their cumulative rankings. (We also looked at high-velocity performance relative to performance against all other pitches, not just slower fastballs; the results were about the same.)

The Dodgers' wOBA on fastballs 95 mph and up was actually higher than their wOBA on slower fastballs, the only team in baseball that was true. The average team was about 88 percent as productive on high-velocity fastballs. The Twins, at 99 percent productivity, were next among probable playoff teams. The Astros, at 78 percent productivity, were last among probable playoff teams and 29th among all teams.

But, as we said, these capture only the final pitch of each at-bat. By chase rate, the Dodgers were second-best in baseball, and best among probable playoff teams -- they don't chase any more often at 95-plus than they do against slower fastballs. The Astros were 22nd. (The Twins, who hit high-velocity hard, also chase a lot. They were 17th in baseball at this relative chase rate.) And by whiff rate, the Dodgers were again second-best in baseball, trailing only the Washington Nationals. The Astros were slightly better than average.

Only the Dodgers were great at all three of these skills: patience, contact and slugging. They also ranked first in relative isolated power and sixth in relative pull rate. Among probable, or possible, playoff teams, the Dodgers were better than the Astros, Rays, Brewers, Twins, Cardinals, Yankees, A's, Cubs and Indians across all five measures. They're a 95-plus powerhouse, and it shows up not just in one part of hitting but across the whole process.

Here's how the probable playoff teams, and possible playoff teams, rank, by relative performance on 95-plus:

1. Dodgers
2. Twins
3. Cardinals
4. Nationals
5. Braves
6. Brewers
7. Yankees
8. Cubs
9. Indians
10. A's
11. Astros
12. Rays

Is the thing we're measuring real or fluke?

Any time we're looking at split stats, especially in a single season, there's a good chance the intriguing characteristic we've identified is actually just the result of slicing numbers a million different ways into ever-smaller samples. I'm not personally worried about the Cubs' road performance this year or the Twins' "clutch" performance. Random events cluster in seemingly non-random ways.

But "against 95 mph" isn't necessarily random, any more than "against curveballs" or "against high pitches" is. Plausibly, it's a separate skill some major leaguers have and others don't.

To test that, we looked at the past six years of individual players' performance against 95-plus, relative to their overall performance, and then found the correlation from each year to the next. (A correlation of 1 would mean a perfect correlation from one year to the next and a correlation of 0 would show none at all. We limited this to players who qualified for the batting title in both years -- about 90 players per pair.)

There has been, in those six years, a fairly consistent correlation in players' relative contact rate: The lowest correlation in any of those paired years is 0.3, the highest is 0.47, and the average is 0.37. That's about the same as the year-to-year correlation in a hitter's overall batting average on balls in play: some fluke, some skill.

There has been some, but considerably less, correlation in the players' relative wOBA: 0.12. Very weak.

Which is to say the thing we're measuring seems to be both real and small-sample fluke: Some players really are better at this than others, but in a single year there's a fair amount of noise. Which is both good for the Dodgers (and Nationals, who have whiff and chase rates comparable to the Dodgers) and bad for the Astros (and Rays), but not as bad as the lead to this article would have you believe.

Does it matter enough to matter?

Regardless of how much better the Dodgers are on this metaphorical clay court, does it matter enough to tilt our expectations? There are, yes, more 95-plus pitches in the postseason, but they are still a minority of all pitches in a game -- and an even smaller minority of all baseball in a game -- and the skill gap between clubs is almost certainly smaller than we've observed in the regular season. Furthermore, just because a club can hit 95-mph fastballs doesn't mean they can hit pitchers who throw harder than 95. They might just be cheating, and leaving themselves more vulnerable to off-speed pitches.

So has it mattered? By one way of looking at it, maybe. Understand, first, that all teams hit worse in the postseason, just as nearly all teams hit worse against harder fastballs than against slower ones. In the past three years, teams overall have been about 84 percent as productive in the postseason as in the regular season (by wOBA).

But teams that have shown the most 95-plus skill (measured by relative wOBA and relative contact rate) have done better than that. Teams that ranked in the top third of the league in high-velo performance were about 88 percent as productive in the postseason as in the regular season. Teams in the middle third were 82 percent as productive. Teams in the bottom third were 77 percent as effective.

On the other hand: They haven't really won more games. Over the past three years, there have been 106 total postseason games. The team that had shown more 95-plus skill (again, measured by relative wOBA and relative contact rate) in those 106 games has gone 54-52 -- an inconsequential difference. If this skill is real, on a teamwide basis, and if it plays up in the postseason, it hasn't proved to be much of a factor. Crucially, both this paragraph and the previous one are based on just 106 games between evenly matched opponents. They're so noisy our ears should hurt.

We started with an anecdote: the A's, the Red Sox. But the postseason has an anecdote for every position. The 2016 World Series matched two teams who had both struggled, relatively speaking, against high velocity in the regular season, but plowed through their opponents in the playoffs. The 2016 Texas Rangers were fantastic against high velocity, and they got swept in the division series. That's the nature of the postseason: It's all small samples, and you never know which of hundreds of tiny factors is going to be the one that matters that time. Most won't. Mostly, being the best team is the best you can hope for.

Last Friday, the Dodgers played the Mets. Noah Syndergaard, the hardest-throwing starter in the league, pitched against them, and he threw 65 pitches of at least 95 mph. They hit him well -- four runs in five innings -- and beat him for the second time this year. The next day, they faced another 95-plus machine, and this time Jacob deGrom shut them out. And then the day after that, they faced Zack Wheeler, whose 95-mph fastball mostly kept the Dodgers in check -- until they broke through in the eighth and ninth against two relievers, both of whom were also regularly topping 95. It's nice for the Dodgers to know they have that skill in their back pocket. Sometimes, against a pitcher like Syndergaard, it might be the difference. But sometimes, against a pitcher like deGrom, it might not matter at all. It doesn't make the Dodgers invincible this October, but if there's one thing they've learned from six consecutive postseason appearances, it's that you can never collect enough little advantages.

Ding Ning recovers, survives third round scare

Published in Table Tennis
Thursday, 19 September 2019 22:54

Facing DPR Korea’s Cha Hyo Sim, the no.22 seed, likewise a left hander, Ding Ning trailed by two games to one, never comfortable, before in the fourth trailing 6-9; a major upset was on the cards. It was at that stage Ding Ning’s inner strength entered the equation, resolute, no hint of panic, the recovery began, nothing special just willpower.

She won the next four points before on her second game point gaining success; those vital points changed the complexion of the contest, Ding Ning secured the next game (7-11, 5-11, 11-4, 12-10, 11-7) to complete the recovery.

“I have never played against her before. She seldom plays in international events. We both are left handers, so the match is more about the backhand strokes; her shots are of high quality. So, at the beginning, I could not catch her rhythm and lost the first two games very quickly. After 0-2 down, I did not give up and just wanted to come back point by point. I wanted to slow down the rhythm a little bit.” Ding Ning

An upset avoided but there were surprises as the third round of the women’s singles event progressed.

Shin Yubin and Lee Ho Ching

Most notably, Korea Republic’s 15 year old Shin Yubin, the no.26 seed, beat Chinese Taipei’s Cheng I-Ching, the no.8 seed (11-2, 12-10, 9-11, 7-11, 11-8).

Similarly, Hong Kong’s Lee Ho Ching, the no.19 seed, who had not been in the best of form earlier in the women’s team event, accounted for Suh Hyowon, the no.11 seed and like Shin Yubin from Korea Republic (3-11, 12-10, 14-12, 11-8).

Unexpected defeats but not for the very elite names; alongside Ding Ning, colleague Chen Meng, the top seed, beat Hong Kong’s Zhu Chengzhu (11-6, 11-8, 11-7). Likewise, Wang Manyu, the no.3 seed, accounted for Singapore’s Yu Mengyu )9-11, 11-3, 11-9, 11-6); Liu Shiwen, the no.4 seed, ended the hopes of Japan’s Saki Shibata (11-6, 8-11, 11-5, 12-10).

Similar scenario

Similarly, in the fourth round of the men’s singles event, the principal names progressed, the Chinese trio of Xu Xin, Fan Zhendong and Lin Gaoyuan setting the example.

Xu Xin, the top seed, beat Iran’s Amir Hossein Hodaei (11-5, 11-5, 11-3), Fan Zhendong, the no.2 seed, accounted for Malaysia’s Javen Choong (11-3, 11-4, 11-6); Lin Gaoyuan, the no.3 seed, overcame Japan’s Yukiya Uda (11-6, 11-4, 11-7). Not to be upstaged, Japan’s Tomokazu Harimoto, the no.4 seed, was in the fast lane, he halted the adventures of Jean Mari Nayre from the Philippines (11-7, 11-1, 11-5).

Two further rounds follow later in the day in both the men’s singles and women’s singles events; when the lights go out the semi-finalists will be known.

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Taylor and Johnson in centre for Scotland to face Ireland

Published in Rugby
Friday, 20 September 2019 00:55

Duncan Taylor and Sam Johnson will start together for only the second time at centre for Scotland in their World Cup opener against Ireland.

Coach Greg Townsend sticks with Tommy Seymour on the wing ahead of in-form Darcy Graham for the Pool A match.

Ryan Wilson is preferred to Blade Thomson at number eight, while Greig Laidlaw's experience gets him the nod ahead of Ali Price at scrum-half.

Hooker Stuart McInally will captain the side in Yokohama on Sunday.

Glasgow Warriors' Jonny Gray is chosen in the second row alongside Edinburgh's Grant Gilchrist and London Irish's Allan Dell ahead of Ayrshire Bulls' Gordon Reid in the front row.

As expected, Townsend has gone for an experienced line-up that is vastly different from the side that defeated Georgia 36-9 in their final warm-up match at Murrayfield earlier this month and shows 10 changes.

The head coach said: "Our team has a lot of experience playing together in major games for Scotland, with a bench capable of making a difference when required.

"That cohesion, experience and leadership is very valuable in a build-up to a match of this magnitude as well as during the 80 minutes on Sunday."

Exeter Chiefs full-back Stuart Hogg and Saracens wing Sean Maitland return to the back-three to partner fellow British and Irish Lion and Glasgow wing Seymour.

Another pair of Lions - Clermont Auvergne scrum-half Laidlaw and Racing 92 fly-half Finn Russell - return to start at half-back.

"In Ireland, we face a quality opposition who, over the past number of years, have earned the right to be the number one ranked side in the world," Townsend added.

"We know them well and are well aware of the strengths they possess throughout their squad. We expect them to play very well, as they did in their most recent games against Wales, so only our best performance will do in order to win.

"The prospect of facing them in the opening round of a Rugby World Cup is a fantastic challenge for our players and supporters around the world."

Scotland: Hogg; Seymour, Taylor, Johnson, Maitland; Russell, Laidlaw; Dell, McInally (captain), Nel, Gilchrist, Gray, Barclay, Watson, Wilson.

Replacements: Brown, Reid, Berghan, Cummings, Thomson, Price, Harris, Graham.

George Ford will start at fly-half and Owen Farrell at inside centre as England begin their World Cup campaign against Tonga.

Coach Eddie Jones has also picked the youthful combination of Tom Curry at blind-side and Sam Underhill at open-side for Sunday's game in Sapparo.

Farrell will captain the side as scrum-half Ben Youngs wins his 90th cap, with Manu Tuilagi at outside-centre.

Jones said: "There's no doubt Tonga will want to come through the front door, and we want to play a little bit out the back door against them.

"One of the things we've used the warm-up games for is to develop an adaptable squad that allows us to have more adaptable tactics, and this one of the options we can use."

With Mako Vunipola still recovering from a hamstring injury, Joe Marler comes in at loose-head prop in a front row also featuring Jamie George and Kyle Sinckler.

Anthony Watson starts on the right wing with Jonny May on the left and Elliot Daly at full-back.

During this year's Six Nations, Jones preferred Farrell at 10 with Tuilagi and Henry Slade in midfield, but Ford and Farrell were in harness during England's record-breaking win over Ireland in their pre-tournament warm-up game.

"We just feel it's the best way to play against Tonga - it gives us a number of options in terms of running and kicking and passing," Jones added.

"We know Tonga are going to be ferocious and full of pride and passion.

"They are a side that if they get a bit of momentum can be very dangerous, and we will need to be on our best on Sunday."

Jones has referred to 21-year-old Curry and 23-year-old Underhill as his "kamikaze kids", their selection reminiscent of the David Pocock/Michael Hooper back-row combination which served Australia so well at the last World Cup.

He said: "They've both been training really well, and we're excited about the prospect of them playing together.

"We just feel, particularly with the way the breakdown's being refereed at the moment, allowing more contests, that having two guys who are very adept at poaching gives us the best opportunity in this game."

This is close to Jones' first-choice team but it is also an inexperienced one in some areas, the second youngest in terms of average age that England have ever fielded at a World Cup.

But Jones is content with what he has at his disposal, after four years in charge that have brought both a Grand Slam title and a fifth-place finish in the 2018 Six Nations.

"If you look at what this team's been through over the past five or six years, they've won a lot, they've lost a lot, they've been through some extraordinarily tough situations and had some great situations," he said.

"All that accumulated experience probably counts more than caps.

"I feel like I'm at the top of a rollercoaster. You're excited but you're also nervous, because you're not sure how you're going to handle it.

"I think that's a really nice way to be, and if you ask any coach or player at this time, they'd have the same mixture of feelings.

"You know that in England it won't just be rugby fans that'll be watching these games. It becomes a family event. The responsibility of making sure your country plays with pride and passion is very important."

Farrell was part of the England team that went out at the group stage of the last World Cup, his first experience of the tournament coming as a teenager when he travelled to France to watch his father Andy as that England team made it all the way to the 2007 final.

He told BBC Radio 5 Live: "A lot of us have played age-group stuff together, and a lot of us have come across each other a lot when we were younger.

"There are some good relationships in this squad, and we've worked hard on making sure we're a tight-knit group, not just on the pitch but off it, and hopefully that stands us in good stead.

"We feel like we've got a brilliant squad here, with a lot of talent and a lot of cohesion.

"Tonga will be a tough test for us, because they're a very proud nation, a very physical team, a lot of devastating players.

"We feel in a good place - we feel like we're tighter than ever, and we're just excited to get going in what's going to be a brilliant tournament."

Meanwhile, Tonga have picked seven England-based players, including record-breaking fly-half Kurt Morath and captain Siale Piutau.

Doncaster Knight's Morath, who is Tonga's all-time leading scorer with 340 Test points, and Bristol's Piutau are two of four players to have survived from the Polynesian kingdom's final match of the 2015 tournament - a defeat by eventual champions New Zealand in the group stage.

England: Daly; Watson, Tuilagi, Farrell (c), May; Ford, Youngs; Marler, George, Sinckler, Lawes, Itoje, Curry, Underhill, B Vunipola

Replacements: Cowan-Dickie, Genge, Cole, Kruis, Ludlam, Heinz, Slade, Joseph

Tonga: Halaifonua; Pakalani, Piutau (c), Vuna, Lolohea; Morath, Takulua; Fisiihoi, Sakalia, Tameifuna, Lousi, Fifita, Kalamafoni, Kapeli, Vaipulu

Replacements: Maile, Talakai, Fia, Faleafa, Manu, Fukofuka, Faiva, Tu'itavake

BBC Sport users opt for Slade and Cokanasiga instead

We asked BBC Sport readers to pick their England XV to face Tonga and some 55,000 of you took part.

Here's who you picked:

England: Daly; Cokanasiga, Slade, Tuilagi, May; Farrell, Youngs; M Vunipola, George, Sinckler, Itoje, Kruis, Underhill, Curry, B Vunipola

Billy Vunipola was selected in 93.09% of all teams, while Farrell was named in 92.62, Tuilagi 89.96 and Itoje 89.94.

Farrell was selected as the first-choice fly-half but was also a popular pick at inside centre behind Tuilagi, however, Slade made more teams than Farrell at centre.

The closest battle was at full-back where Elliot Daly was named in 54% of the teams and Anthony Watson in 46.

Conway and Larmour start for Ireland against Scotland

Published in Rugby
Thursday, 19 September 2019 23:00

Andrew Conway and Jordan Larmour have been named in the Ireland team to face Scotland in their World Cup Pool A opener in Yokohama on Sunday.

Conway will start on the right wing with Larmour at full-back after Keith Earls and Rob Kearney were ruled out.

Kearney has been struggling with a calf injury sustained in training and Earls has been suffering with a quad injury.

Connacht's Jack Carty is named as the replacement fly-half with Joey Carbery recovering from an ankle injury.

Munster's Carbery only returned to training this week having hurt his ankle against Italy in August.

Ireland will also be without centre Robbie Henshaw, who is hopeful of returning to face hosts Japan on 28 September.

The Leinster centre picked up his injury in training last Saturday while provincial team-mate Kearney sustained his problem during another session on Monday.

Earls was injured in Ireland's final warm-up game against Wales, although he did take part in training over the past week.

Earlier this week defence coach Andy Farrell revealed that both Earls and Kearney were fit to play, but with just six days between their opening two fixtures Ireland have opted not to risk the experienced duo from the start.

Carty, who impressed in his only start of the warm-up matches against Wales in Cardiff, will deputise for Johnny Sexton in Carbery's absence.

Conway has played seven of his nine starts on the wing, and is another whose impressive form in the warm-up matches warrants his inclusion in the starting XV.

Against England and Wales Conway was deployed at full-back, with Larmour taking his place on the wing, although the Leinster back has also featured regularly at full-back since his Ireland debut in last year's Six Nations.

Ireland coach Joe Schmidt will hope his side can overcome the loss of Kearney, who has won 95 Test caps for Ireland and the British and Irish Lions, and Earls, who boasts 78 appearances for his country, to claim victory in their vital opening fixture.

Jack Conan misses out on a place in the back row as CJ Stander gets the nod as number eight.

Ireland will face Japan, Russia and Samoa in their other Pool A fixtures.

Ireland: Larmour; Conway, Ringrose, Aki, Stockdale; Sexton, Murray; Healy, Best, Furlong; Henderson, James Ryan; O'Mahony, Van der Flier, Stander.

Replacements: Scannell, Kilcoyne, Porter, Beirne, Conan, McGrath, Carty, Farrell.

Ramirez Drinks Up At Fall Jamboree

Published in Racing
Friday, 20 September 2019 03:20

SPRING VALLEY, Minn. — Dereck Ramirez watched the monkey on his back grow old, but the 32-year-old from Woodward, Okla., finally laid it to rest Thursday on opening night of the 21st annual Featherlite Fall Jamboree.

Ramirez started on the outside of the front row and followed polesitter Joel Alberts for the first six laps of Thursday’s main event before powering to the front.

Besides Alberts, Ramirez was also challenged by Adam Hensel, Zack VanderBeek and Rodney Sanders during the first half of the 40-lapper but eventually he checked out with Sanders to settle it among themselves.

It seemed fitting since the pair are ranked first and second in both the Casey’s General Stores USMTS National Championship points battle and USMTS Hunt for the Casey’s Cup powered by Summit which wraps up with the conclusion of Saturday’s race.

Lapped traffic came into play during the final dozen laps, but despite his best efforts Sanders had to settle for the runner-up paycheck while Ramirez broke through for his third win of the season and eighth of his USMTS career.

In doing so, Ramirez also buried the hatchet with the Deer Creek Speedway.

“This is one of them places where in racing this is where you shine-Eldora for the late models; Deer Creek for the modifieds-and it’s so great to actually do it,” an emotional Ramirez said in victory lane. “I’ve struggled and struggled here, and I finally got something figured out. I think we got something to work with.”

Thursday’s event was the 108th United States Modified Touring Series race at the high-banked three-eighths-mile clay oval near Spring Valley, Minn. For Ramirez, it was his 80th attempt but first trip to the winner’s circle here.

“It was good,” he said of his Cornett-powered No. 4r Hughes Chassis. “I’m so happy to run good here. You’ve got probably the greatest fans in dirt track racing for us, and I just never ran good here. I never showed my true talent to these people and I’m glad it shined tonight.

“I usually don’t drink, but I think tonight’s the night I probably get drunk.”

While Ramirez avoided a 13th second-place finish this season and instead picked up his eighth career USMTS win, Sanders held off 2019 track champion Brandon Davis who clawed his way from 12th on the grid to finish third.

It ended a streak of seven straight wins at the track for Davis, including the Labor Day Weekend event which gave him his eighth career USMTS victory.

The finish:

Dereck Ramirez, Rodney Sanders, Brandon Davis, Hunter Marriott, Zack VanderBeek, Dustin Sorensen, Rochester, Jake Timm, Joel Alberts, Jake O’Neil, Brad Waits, Travis Saurer, Terry Phillips, Lucas Schott, Jason Hughes, Cory Crapser, Josh Angst, Jacob Bleess, Joe Horgdal, Brady Gerdes, Jason Cummins, Adam Kates, Austin Siebert, Ryan Gustin, Adam Hensel, Kyle Brown, Ethan Dotson, Charlie Steinberg, Rick Beebe, Joe Duvall, Tony Schill.

McFadden Is BAPS Sprint Car Master

Published in Racing
Friday, 20 September 2019 03:30

YORK HAVEN, Pa. — James McFadden kicked off a huge weekend of sprint car racing in Central Pennsylvania with an impressive victory in Thursday night’s Select Collision Kevin Gobrecht Classic at BAPS Motor Speedway.

Driving the Kasey Kahne Racing No. 9, McFadden started outside the front row for the 30-lap feature and held off sixth-starting Brock Zearfoss for the victory.

Cory Eliason finished third with Ryan Smith and J.J. Grasso, who started 17th, rounding out the top five.

Steve Ownings raced from sixth on the grid to win the 25-lap 358 sprint car feature.

The finish:

Feature (30 Laps): 1. 9-James McFadden, [2]; 2. 70-Brock Zearfoss, [6]; 3. 26-Cory Eliason, [4]; 4. 72-Ryan Smith, [5]; 5. 37-J.J. Grasso, [17]; 6. 44-Trey Starks, [11]; 7. 91R-Kyle Reinhardt, [10]; 8. 99M-Kyle Moody, [15]; 9. 8-Billy Dietrich, [14]; 10. 21-Brian Montieth, [23]; 11. W20-Greg Wilson, [16]; 12. 73B-Brett Michalski, [21]; 13. 4-Dwight Leppo, [24]; 14. 75-Chase Dietz, [13]; 15. 9L-Ryan Linder, [19]; 16. 11P-Greg Plank, [20]; 17. (DNF) 39M-Anthony Macri, [7]; 18. (DNF) 71-Giovanni Scelzi, [3]; 19. (DNF) 48-Danny Dietrich, [1]; 20. (DNF) 99G-George Riden III, [18]; 21. (DNF) 91-Anthony Fiore, [9]; 22. (DNF) 97-Brie Hershey, [22]; 23. (DNF) 33-Jared Esh, [12]; (DNS) 24-Lucas Wolfe

Daum Dominant In Opening Wheatland Prelim

Published in Racing
Friday, 20 September 2019 03:40

WHEATLAND, Mo. – The ninth annual Jesse Hockett/Daniel McMillin Memorial opened with a bang in Thursday’s Mesilla Valley Transportation preliminary for the POWRi Lucas Oil WAR Sprint League.

Zach Daum glided to the race lead on lap 17 and held on for his sixth-career POWRi WAR victory, beating Mitchell Moore to the checkered flag.

Opening with the unique addition of group qualifying, the four flights to open the night saw Garrett Aitken (14.735), Thomas Meseraull (14.521), Chris Windom (14.551) and Riley Kreisel (14.900) top the charts.

In heat race action, the four-car inversion offered several thrilling starts as drivers sliced and diced for position with points on the line. In the end, Aitken, Landon Simon, Windom and Kreisel took heat wins.

A trio of qualifiers spiced it up further with a six-car inversion in play, creating some on-the-edge charges as Meseraull won qualifier one from fifth, Windom won qualifier two from sixth and Daum won qualifier three from fifth.

Setting the stage for the 25-lap preliminary feature, one final twist was thrown into the mix as the top eight in combined points were inverted, slotting Windom and Kreisel on the fourth row with three daunting duos in front of them.

At the drop of the green flag in feature action, Moore took advantage of his pole position and guided his No. 51 entry to the point, while the war for position ensued behind him.

Holding a steady command early on, Moore paced himself while the battle for second brewed between Daum, Schudy and a storming Windom from eighth. Seeing the crossed flags at halfway, Moore’s lead began to shrink as Daum and Windom mounted a run at the No. 51.

Pulling within striking distance, Daum made several peeks to the inside before cashing in off turn two on the 16th circuit, gassing it off exit as he snuck underneath Moore and powering by him down the backstretch.

While Daum focused on his lead, the attention turned to Windom, who after taking second away from Moore ended up biking his No. 5G in turn two, but miraculously saved it and only lost one spot.

Catching the first and only stoppage of the race on lap 24, the field was reset after a top-10 running Terry Richards went wildly flipping in turn three. He was okay, but certainly heated afterwards.

Coming to a green-white-checkered restart, Daum stayed committed to the bottom, while Windom tried to go side-by-side for Moore in pursuit for second.

In the end, neither Moore and Windom could catch Daum, as the Pocahontas, Ill. native drove the No. 5D from fifth-to-first and earned his sixth-career POWRi Lucas Oil WAR Sprint League victory.

Coming on night one of the Jesse Hockett/Daniel McMillin Memorial, Daum’s win mathematically guarantees him a spot in Saturday’s pole shuffle at Lucas Oil Speedway.

Chasing Daum to the finish line and earning a runner-up bid was Moore, who had no more than 12 hours ago put the finishing touches on a freshly-built No. 51 machine.

Rounding out the podium with Daum and Moore was Windom, who capped his stellar night with an eighth-to-third run in the NOS Energy Drink No. 5G.

Kory Schudy crossed fourth and Joe B. Miller was fifth, followed by Aitken, Simon, Korey Weyant, Ty Hulsey and Chris Phillips.

After Thursday’s opening preliminary, Windom (250) leads the points situation ahead of Daum (248), Miller (218), Moore (214) and Aitken (213).

The finish:

1. 5D-Zach Daum (5); 2. 51-Mitchell Moore (1); 3. 5G-Chris Windom (8); 4. 28-Kory Schudy (2); 5. 31B-Joe B. Miller (12); 6. 32-Garrett Aitken (4); 7. 24-Landon Simon (3); 8. 99-Korey Weyant (17); 9. 24H-Ty Hulsey (11); 10. 6P-Chris Phillips (10); 11. 1-Paul White (9); 12. 30B-Quinton Benson (14); 13. 5$-Danny Smith (19); 14. 00-Thomas Meseraull (6); 15. 2X-Zach Clark (15); 16. 20-Steve Thomas (20); 17. 73-Samuel Wagner (18); 18. 90-Riley Kreisel (7); 19. 18-Terry Richards (13); 20. 42-Warren Johnson (16).

Lap Leader(s): Moore 1-16; Daum 17-25.

Hard Charger(s): Miller (+7)

Hahn Stops Baughman In Hockett/McMillin Kickoff

Published in Racing
Friday, 20 September 2019 03:42

WHEATLAND, Mo. – Lap 17 proved decisive for Blake Hahn Thursday night as the ninth annual Jesse Hockett/Daniel McMillin Memorial opened its three-night run at Lucas Oil Speedway.

Hahn grabbed command after a back-and-forth battle with Josh Baughman on the 17th circuit and went on to win the Lucas Oil American Sprint Car Series feature, worth $3,000.

A total of 70 ASCS sprint cars checked into the pits, earning points toward Saturday’s program, which concludes with a $10,000-to-win ASCS feature.

Hahn traded the lead with Baughman seven times over the first 17 laps before taking over for good. He wound up nearly a second in front of runner-up Dylan Westbrook with Paul Nienhiser third.

“This is a win that I wanted really bad,” Hahn said. “It isn’t Saturday night, but this is still something big. Any time you can show up to a race and race against 69 other cars and we won this thing, it’s pretty impressive.

“We were really good in the heat race and really good in the qualifier, too.”

Hahn started on the pole and led the first four laps before Baughman worked the inside line to pass for the lead coming out of turn four to complete lap five.

Hahn returned the favor on the next circuit, but going around on the outside to regain the lead. Before the lap was completed, however, the race was red-flagged as Jeff Swindell took a wild flip in turns three and four. Swindell walked away from the incident and Baughman remained the race leader for the restart.

It didn’t take long for Hahn to get the jump as the green waved, and he went on to open a 2.5-second lead by lap 10.

“We had a really good car on top,” Hahn said. “I was a little angry that I was in second and I drove it into one on the top pretty hard and it stuck pretty well.”

As the leaders caught lapped traffic, Baughman closed in and went back in front on lap 16.

Again, Hahn responded. He needed less than a lap to reclaim the lead and was in front by half a second when action again was halted on lap 18, as Jay Russell flipped his car coming out of turn four. Russell crawled out under his own power to cheers from the fans.

Hahn was solid from there, driving away for his eighth-career ASCS National Tour win.

“I really thought I needed to go to the top and then Josh was working the bottom really well down here,” Hahn said of the battle with Baughman. “After I started getting to the bottom, I felt pretty good down there, too.”

Westbrook emerged from a four-car battle to claim second, with Paul Nienhiser third, Derek Hagar fourth and Baughman fading late to finish fifth.

Three-time reigning ASCS champion Sam Haftertepe spun on lap 18 after a restart to bring out the race’s final caution. He wound up 18th.

The finish:

A Feature (25 laps): 1. 52-Blake Hahn [1]; 2. 47X-Dylan Westbrook [8]; 3. 9X-Paul Nienhiser [2]; 4. 9JR-Derek Hagar [7]; 5. 17-Josh Baughman [3]; 6. 11-Roger Crockett [6]; 7. 3-Ayrton Gennetten [10]; 8. 22-Sean McClelland [12]; 9. 21K-Kameron Key [14]; 10. 17W-Harli White [11]; 11. 9$-Kyle Clark [9]; 12. 2X-Tucker Doughty [5]; 13. 21P-Robbie Price [4]; 14. 14-Jordon Mallett [13]; 15. 81-Jack Dover [21]; 16. 21-Miles Paulus [25]; 17. 91T-Tyler Thomas [22]; 18. 15H-Sam Hafertepe Jr. [15]; 19. 76-Jay Russell [16]; 20. M1-Mark Smith [19]; 21. 21C-Carson Short [18]; 22. 94-Jeff Swindell [20]; 23. 84-Brandon Hanks [17]; 24. 28-Scott Bogucki [23]; 25. 95-Matt Covington [24].

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