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The state of MLB's terrible teams as the very worst meet

Published in Baseball
Friday, 13 September 2019 05:40

The Baltimore Orioles and Detroit Tigers start a four-game series tonight as the two worst teams in baseball during a season in which the difference between the top-tier clubs and those on the bottom rung has never been more pronounced.

As the worst of the worst square off, we got to wondering: Is there hope for the have-nots? We take a closer look at the state of the standings, predict the future of a handful of the most non-competitive franchises -- and debate what the disparity means for the game.

The Orioles and Tigers are putting up historic numbers for losses/run differential. Where do they rank among the worst teams you have ever seen?

Jeff Passan: They're not even the worst Orioles and Tigers teams of the past 20 years. Even though the 2019 Orioles might end up with an inferior run differential, the 2018 club lost 115 games. And may we never forget the 2003 Tigers, losers of 119 games and in the worst-team-ever conversation.

David Schoenfield: Look, these Orioles are particularly unwatchable because of all the home runs they've allowed. They broke the single-season record with more than a month left to go in the season. They don't have any particularly compelling young players who you think will develop into a future star. The Tigers are also particularly unwatchable, with an offense that once you adjust for the current environment rates as one of the worst of all time. They also don't have any particularly compelling young players you think will develop into a future star. Remarkably, however, neither is the worst team I've seen. Jeff points out the 2003 Tigers, an amazingly awful team that was outscored by 337 runs. Most amazing of all, they were in the World Series three years later.

Bradford Doolittle: Relatively speaking, even with so many teams buried in rebuilding programs right now, there is more parity than there used to be in baseball. The amateur draft, revenue sharing, free agency -- none of these things used to exist, and so the game is more competitive top-to-bottom than it was in the era before divisional play. There have been 74 teams since 1901 to have posted run differentials that translate to fewer than 57 Pythagorean wins per 162 games. Only 15 of those (20%) have appeared during the 51 years of divisional play, or just under one every three years. This season, both the Tigers and Orioles could get below that 57-win cutoff, though Baltimore still has a chance to eclipse it. I've seen both teams play at least three times in person and you can't really tell the degree of their awfulness by watching. It's more like a situation arises, you see who is coming up to the plate or in from the bullpen, scan the scorecard for better options, and then think, "Good god. This team stinks." There are teams every season that give you that feeling. It's hard to rank such a thing, so I have to default to metrics. The Tigers' pace of 50.9 Pythagorean wins per 162 games would be the second-worst result since 1975, behind Detroit's 2003 season. So that's pretty bad. But the Orioles show up in that group of sub-57-win teams twice -- last year and this year. As a matter of extended putridness, I don't think we've seen anything like the two most recent Baltimore teams in a generation or two.

Eddie Matz: Slightly south of the Washington Generals, and just north of the Bad News Bears.

Let's put you on the spot: Quick, one reason to watch the O's take on the Tigers this weekend that has nothing to do with win-loss records?

Doolittle: Miguel Cabrera. Every hit and home run he gets moves him closer to historical milestones and who better to pad a hitter's numbers than the Orioles' pitching staff?

Matz: Both teams feature orange in their uniforms. Orange is a happy color. (Not that you need more reason beyond happiness, but ... we could call it the Orange Bowl, in which case maybe Capital One would come on as a sponsor, just like they do for the CFB Orange Bowl.)

Passan: Edwin Jackson is pitching Sunday! And even if he has a 9.76 ERA and has been worth -2.3 WAR -- the worst mark in MLB this year -- he's still Edwin Jackson! In his 17th year, pitching for his major league-record 14th team -- Rays, Dodgers, Cubs, Nationals, White Sox, Diamondbacks, Braves, Cardinals, A's, Padres, Orioles, Marlins, Blue Jays and Tigers -- Jackson might be nearing the end of his career. And considering the journey that's been the 2019 season is likewise at its end, who better to watch than the journeyman of journeymen?

Schoenfield: What, the Aaron Brooks-Jordan Zimmermann matchup doesn't get you excited? OK, how about tuning in to see Hanser Alberto's pursuit of the batting title. Who? Yes, the guy who hit .192 in parts of three seasons with the Rangers and was waived four times in the offseason -- by the Rangers, Yankees, Orioles (who later picked him up again) and Giants -- could win a batting title. He enters Thursday hitting .320, 13 points behind Tim Anderson. Thirteen points can evaporate in a matter days with a few 0-for-4s and the other getting hot. So, Hanser Alberto, the potential most unlikely batting champ of all time!

Which of the five worst teams in baseball (Tigers, Orioles, Marlins, Royals, Blue Jays), do you think is the closest to making the playoffs?

Passan: While it's far from foolproof, the most successful down-to-the-studs rebuilds have erected themselves around a core of young position-playing talent. The Tigers don't have that. The Orioles don't have that. The Marlins don't have that. The Royals sort of have that, though Whit Merrifield (30), Jorge Soler (27) and Hunter Dozier (27) aren't spring chickens. That leaves the Blue Jays and this bunch of 25-and-unders: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Lourdes Gurriel, Cavan Biggio, Danny Jansen and Rowdy Tellez. With less than $75 million committed over the next half-decade, the Blue Jays are ripe -- or at least ripest among these five -- to build something special.

Doolittle: I'll go with the Marlins with a slight edge over the Blue Jays. Teams, including the 2003 Marlins, can go on shocking runs if they are able to gather a bunch of productive young arms, and Miami appears to be on the verge of doing that with their rotation. Even in 2019, it's a great foundation from which to make a short-term leap. An astute front office can piece together a league-average offense with plus defense and a steady bullpen with targeted aggression in the free-agent market to augment what's already on the roster. I'm not saying the Marlins should go all-in or anything, but their rotation has the most potential for near-term, postseason-level success than any other position group among these teams.

Matz: The O's and Jays have promising farm systems, but for purposes of this question, that's offset by the fact that they share a sandbox with the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays. The Marlins' pipeline is strong, too, but it's hard to trust the front office given the team's recent history. That leaves the Tigers and Royals, both of whom will benefit by playing in the watered-down AL Central. Detroit has the better farm system, and historically, has been looser with the purse strings. So I guess I'm hitching my wagon to the Tigers.

Schoenfield: The Tigers at least have the potential of a rotation to build around in the near future, with current big leaguers Matthew Boyd, Spencer Turnbull and Daniel Morris, plus prospects Casey Mize and Matt Manning, two of the top 10 pitching prospects in the minors. They do have the advantage of playing in the AL Central. Unfortunately, they also have little in the way of position players and I don't have a lot of faith in the current front office or if Christopher Ilitch will be willing to spend on payroll like dad did. So, umm, I'll lean to the Blue Jays even though they're in a tough division. It looks like they have two young studs to build around and, in theory, they're a big-market team that has the ability to spend big if they want to win.

Which of the five worst teams in baseball (Tigers, Orioles, Marlins, Royals, Blue Jays), do you think is in the worst shape for the future?

Doolittle: Have to go with the Tigers. Nobody's nadir should be this bad, though Astros fans will tell you that it doesn't make any difference. Detroit has drafted a couple of exciting young arms, but it's a drop in the bucket and for a team that has sunk this far, their payroll situation isn't all that great, either. On top of that, I haven't picked up on much to suggest the Tigers' baseball operations are operating on the cutting edge -- taking advantage of their current plight to modernize how they do things. This year should be rock bottom but I couldn't guarantee that it is.

Passan: Much of the Tigers' rebuild looks pitching-dependent, and that's always troublesome. The Marlins are stocked with boom-or-bust position players, and that's a scary proposition. A too-large group of Royals position-playing prospects bombed out this season, and that's scary and troublesome. But the Orioles are in an American League East with a fully functional Death Star Yankees team, a Red Sox cash cow, a Rays crew that's good and filled with major league-caliber prospects, and the aforementioned Blue Jays. So no matter how astute GM Mike Elias and assistant GM Sig Mejdal are, their mountaintop is a mile higher than the other four teams'.

Matz: The Royals have the weakest farm system of the bunch. It's possible that the recent ownership change, combined with a new TV deal, could make them more prominent players in the free-agent market. But in the interest of not overthinking things here, I'll go with K.C.

Schoenfield: The Marlins haven't finished above .500 since 2009, nobody goes to their games, the offense is horrible, the farm system isn't that impressive, they're behind other organizations in analytics (although finally starting to ramp up) and the fetish for toolsy position player prospects who can't hit is a boom-or-bust approach that usually leads to bust.

Let's pretend we just put you in charge of one of MLB's worst teams, what's your first big move as GM?

Matz (Orioles): Move back the fences. Unless and until that happens, it's going to be damn near impossible for the O's to convince A-list free-agent hurlers to set up shop at Camden Yards. I wouldn't move them back too far, for fear of spooking A-list free-agent hitters, but just far enough away so that both pitchers and hitters feel confident in their ability to do their job at the home office. Maybe my first big move, even before moving back the fences, would be to hire a vice president of home run distance -- a bright young analytics mind whose sole responsibility would be to tell me exactly which numbers to paint on the outfield walls.

Doolittle (Tigers): Well, first of all, thanks for giving me Al Avila's job. Your confidence in me is much appreciated. I probably won't have it for long, because I'm in a place where I really want to push against baseball's current trend toward lockstep. Too many teams are doing too many things in similar ways and coming to similar conclusions, which leads to an alarming amount of team-to-team conformity when it comes to the end product on the field. There has to be new inefficiencies being created. Here's what I would try in Detroit, especially since right now, it looks like the future starting rotation has the most potential for high-impact production: I move the fences at Comerica Park back to where they were when the park opened, when you had to use FedEx to get a ball into the outfield seats. I target as many athletic line-drive hitters with good contact rates and walk-to-strikeout ratios as I can find. I try to construct a 1930s-style lineup where most of my position players are upper-crust defenders who battle pitchers, get on base without striking out and are threats when they get on the bags. I reserve my first base and DH slots for good, old-fashioned thumpers, whose exit velocity makes the generous dimensions of my ballpark largely irrelevant. As was the case long ago, the idea is to funnel RBI opportunities to these sluggers, and manufacture runs at the bottom of my lineup. Fans would love it. But if it doesn't work, I'm back to floating hackneyed theories for ESPN.

Schoenfield (Marlins): I hire Joe Maddon as manager after the Cubs fire him. Nothing against Don Mattingly, who has done the best he can with the limited talent on hand. Maddon would be a statement hire: Enough of this nonsense, we're out here to win. It would remind me of when the eternally losing Mariners hired Lou Piniella in 1993 and gave the franchise some instant credibility. All the Marlins would need next is their Ken Griffey Jr., Edgar Martinez, Randy Johnson and Alex Rodriguez.

Passan (Royals): Trade Whit Merrifield. It will hurt, of course, because Merrifield might be the most popular Royals player, and he's quite excellent at baseball. He is also incredibly valuable because of the contract extension he signed over the winter that will pay him $14.5 million for the next three years and includes a 2023 option for $6.5 million. It's the sort of deal that could fetch the Royals an absolute ransom when the free-agent class at second base and outfield, not to mention the utility role, is perilously thin. Here's what seals it: At earliest, the Royals are primed to contend in 2021, and by that time Merrifield will be 32 years old. Cash in now, let another team bear the risk that Merrifield defies the aging curve.

The 2020 MLB draft is loaded at the top, is there any one player you'd be eyeing as the fan of a team in contention for a top pick?

Matz: In the first 40 years of the draft (I'm ignoring the past five years because it's too soon to evaluate), a pitcher was selected first overall on 15 different occasions. Five of those guys either never made it to the majors or compiled a career WAR that was less than zero. Five out of 15! That's one-third, which, if we're talking about the top pick, is way too much volatility for my taste. All of which is to say, all things being equal, I'd go for the non-pitcher. That means passing on Emerson Hancock -- the University of Georgia hurler who sits atop most 2020 mock drafts -- and taking either a masher like ASU first baseman Spencer Torkelson, or an ath-o-lete like high school outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong.

Passan: Hancock is the odds-on favorite and has everything teams want: a projectable body (6-foot-4, 215 pounds), right-now stuff (mid-90s fastball that touches 99 alongside a slider, curveball and changeup) and SEC pedigree (he's coming off a sub-2.00 ERA sophomore year at Georgia). Torkelson is a relatively short (listed at 6-foot-1), right-handed-hitting first baseman, which in the past might have disqualified him from going 1-1. But the bat is special -- maybe, one evaluator said, the best in the draft since Kris Bryant. One dark horse -- and it's very dark, since no high school right-hander ever has gone with the first pick: Mick Abel, already hitting 97 mph and with plenty of room to pack muscle and velocity onto his 6-foot-5, 185-pound frame.

Schoenfield: When in doubt, I would always lean to the position player. Jeff just mentioned Kris Bryant, a reminder that the Astros passed on Bryant with the first pick in 2013 and took Mark Appel. Imagine the Astros with Bryant. OK, maybe we shouldn't. Anyway, if Torkelson is that special -- I'm a little skeptical since he had more strikeouts than walks as a sophomore, which shouldn't be the case with an elite college hitter (as a point of comparison, Andrew Vaughn, just drafted third overall by the White Sox and playing in the same conference, had almost twice as many walks as K's) -- he should be the guy.

Doolittle: Well, if I still have Al Avila's job, part of my formula is having a couple of big-time sluggers, so I would have to look very closely at high school corner player Blaze Jordan, whom Baseball America gave an 80-grade for his raw power. The safer pick would probably be Georgia's Emerson Hancock, who, if he gets through the next NCAA season in one piece, has all the earmarks of a future ace. Add him to a future rotation with Casey Mize, Matt Manning and Tarik Skubal and suddenly the kind of team you're building starts to come into focus. For the Orioles, I'd probably lean toward Hancock as well. Though if you're trying to build up the middle and want a high-level prospect to piggyback on 2019 No. 1 pick Ashley Rutschman, I might go with high school center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong.

We could have as many as five 100-loss teams this season. What do you think is the primary reason we're seeing so many teams that are this bad at one time?

Passan: Tanking saves money, offers executives job security and has proven a viable way to build World Series-winning teams. The question isn't why so many teams are bad at once. It's how many teams have to be bad at the same time before MLB and the players overhaul the system so losing isn't the clearest path to winning.

Doolittle: It's just a glut of teams who dove into the same kind of tear-it-down-to-the-studs rebuild at the same time. Among other things, that thins the market for serviceable stopgap players, the kind of which the Orioles have done a decent job of finding this year (Hanser Alberto, Renato Nunez). There are a lot of Triple-A players getting big league innings and at-bats in 2019.

Matz: According to the Rogers Innovation Curve, 2.5% of people are innovators. In terms of MLB franchises, that's roughly equivalent to one team -- namely, the Astros. The next stage of the curve belongs to early adopters, who comprise 13.5% of the market. That's another four teams that are following in Houston's footsteps (i.e. -- tanking), which is about where we are now. The stage after that is the early majority, which would be another 10 teams (34%). If MLB follows the Rogers model, we'll have a completely binary league in which half the teams are trying and the other half aren't. In fact, you could argue that we're kind of already there (just because you don't lose 100 games doesn't mean you're trying to win). I guess what I'm trying to say is that if imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, Astros GM Jeff Luhnow should be feeling pretty good about himself right about now.

Schoenfield: What Eddie said.

Among the biggest problems baseball is facing right now, where does the issue of non-competitive teams at the bottom of the standings rank?

Passan: Rebuilding is nothing new and not particularly unique to baseball. Because analytics pervaded MLB earlier than the other major sports, though, the game has spent years embracing ruthless efficiency and the process-over-outcome dictate. If there were a clear, demonstrable downside to tanking -- let's even take the pejorative out of this and say, simply, losing -- teams wouldn't do it. But the predictability of fans makes it possible. Because here's the ultimate truth on which every team that decides to tank lands: No matter how lean the years leading up to it, a winning team is a panacea, and nearly every market will let bygones (or 100-loss seasons) be bygones (or 100-loss seasons) and rationalize that the rebuild was causative of future success and not just correlated to it. In other words, it'll all be worth it.

Doolittle: Baseball's biggest problem is the plague of rantings about how baseball has big problems. However, there does need to be some reform regarding how elite draft picks incentivize teams to discount short-term wins. And they need to fix service-time manipulation because it is a cheat to fans of a team when they and everyone else knows that the best 25 players in an organization are not on the big-league roster. How fun would it be for White Sox fans to watch Luis Robert and Nick Madrigal play alongside Eloy Jimenez, Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada this month?

Matz: It's up there, no doubt. But to me, the biggest problem is that baseball no longer has a captive audience. Back in the 1970s and '80s, it wasn't the only game in town, but it wasn't far from it. If you were an athlete, there was a damn good chance baseball was one of the sports you played. These days, there are so many more viable alternatives that, quite frankly, are way more conducive to holding the attention span of a young mind. Basketball. Football. Soccer. Lacrosse. E-sports. And once you lose the kids, you lose everything. We haven't reached the point of no return -- not yet, anyway -- but if MLB wants to compete for mindshare and remain culturally relevant, it'll have to get way more creative than it has gotten thus far.

Schoenfield: You know, it's kind of a damn miracle that the average attendance across the majors is still over 28,000 per game -- and that's with awful teams in markets such as Toronto, Seattle and Detroit that have drawn well at some point in the past. The Blue Jays led the AL in attendance in 2016 and 2017 (and six straight years from 1989 to 1994). The Tigers are at half where they were in 2013. Seattle led back in 2001 and 2002 and will support a winning team. Anyway. The '80s were great? Peak attendance was 26,198 game. The '70s were the best? The peak was 20,748. Don't even bring up the '60s. All that nostalgia about the 1950s? The best figure was 15,000 fans per game in 1959. My point: Baseball is healthy. Admitting you're not trying to win, however, is not the best marketing gimmick.

If you were in charge of baseball, what would you do (if anything) to curb tanking in MLB?

Passan: Anti-tanking measures need to be part of a far broader economic reimagining. But for starters:

  • Uncap amateur spending to allow all teams -- not just the worst -- to allocate significant capital toward building strong farm systems.

  • Get rid of draft penalties tied to free agency.

  • Incentivize teams to roster their best players regardless of service time.

  • Make teams contribute a larger portion of local revenues to split evenly.

  • Offer restricted free agency after a player's fourth season (which would benefit the players as well as potentially the large-market teams giving up more of their revenue but getting access to star players in prime seasons).

In a nutshell: Get rid of reasons for teams to stink, pay players what they deserve, let the economic giants flex, and offer the capacity to freely maneuver around that flexing.

Doolittle: I would like to see a system in which rebuilding teams are rewarded for trying, perhaps while lending a bit of extra interest to late-season matchups that aren't relevant to the playoff race. Basically, I want to order the teams out of the race based on how many games they win after they are out of the race. Here's more detail on the proposal.

Schoenfield: At the simplest level, don't reward teams in the draft for being bad. There are several ways you can do this. Institute a draft lottery, like the NBA. Or maybe if you lose a set number of games (say, 95 or more) you drop 10 or 15 spots in the draft. Imagine the excitement of bad teams trying to avoid 95 losses at the end of the season! Maybe draft order is based on a three-year running record, so you really have to be bad for several years to "earn" the top pick. Brad's idea is also interesting. Yes, one draft pick won't turn a franchise around, but there is still that incentive to lose, get a top pick, and draft Kris Bryant or Carlos Correa or Bryce Harper (or, umm, Mickey Moniak or Mark Appel or Tim Beckham).

Matz: I would create a system in which the team that ends up with the top overall draft pick doesn't necessarily have that much of a better chance of getting a great player than the team with the fourth or seventh or ninth pick. A system in which you could have, say, the 25th overall pick and still manage to land a guy like Mike Trout. Oh wait, that already exists. Look, it's not like MLB execs think they're going to change their franchise by getting a top pick. They're smarter than that. It's more about not spending needlessly during a rebuilding period in which ownership knows it can't compete. Teams can afford to do this -- with little to no regard for fan perception and/or attendance figures -- largely because of the crazy cash flow that regional TV contracts create for clubs. I guess what I'm saying is that the only way to stop tanking is to ... stop televising baseball. But that's a horrible idea. So instead I'll go with my plan B: Institute a payroll floor.

It is, like the story began, the best of times and the worst of times -- an era received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.

There are three major league teams on pace to win 104 or more games -- a mark reached by only 10 teams in the past 40 years -- and another two on pace to win 99.5. (There have never been four 100-win teams in a single season.) There are three teams on pace to lose 104 or more games, another on track to lose 101 and a fifth on pace to lose 99. (There has only once been four 100-loss teams in a single season.) Fully a third of the league could end up at one of the two triple-digit extremes that typically would mark The Best or The Worst team in baseball.

How to put the gap between, say, the Yankees and, say, the Orioles, in context? A simple way is to note that the Yankees are 17-2 when the two clubs play. Or to note that the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers -- the three 104-wins-or-better clubs -- are collectively 41-12 against the Orioles, Tigers, Royals and Marlins, the four 101-losses-or-worse clubs.

A more complicated way is to ask this: How many of these bad teams would it take to make up one of these great teams? Would a playoff superteam of the Royals, Orioles, Tigers and Marlins be able to hang with the super playoff teams in Houston, New York and Los Angeles? In an era of total teardowns on the bleak side of the standings and insatiable depth hoarding on the bright side of them, is there room for any good players on a last-place roster?

To answer this question took 17 tabs in a spreadsheet.

Here were the rules: We built 25-man rosters for the Astros, Yankees, Dodgers and Tigeroyiolins -- on second thought, that's the only time we'll attempt to call them that. Henceforth, they will be the Superteam -- based entirely on 2019 stats: a starter at every position, four bench players covering infield, outfield and catcher, a four-man starting rotation (because only four are needed in the postseason) and an eight-man bullpen. We prorated each player's 2019 WAR for a full, healthy season in the role he is assigned to: 600 plate appearances for starters (except 500 for the catcher), 250 for bench players, 175 innings for starting pitchers and 65 for relievers (except 95 for one designated swingman).* The plan was to see how many bad teams it takes to compete with the Astros, Dodgers and Yankees.

We'll start the bidding at four teams, do I hear four teams?

SUPERTEAM

C Pedro Severino, 1B Garrett Cooper, 2B Jonathan Villar, 3B Hanser Alberto, SS Adalberto Mondesi, LF Trey Mancini, CF Whit Merrifield, RF Hunter Dozier, DH Jorge Soler

DODGERS

C Will Smith, 1B David Freese, 2B Max Muncy, 3B Justin Turner, SS Corey Seager, LF Alex Verdugo, CF Joc Pederson, RF Cody Bellinger, DH A.J. Pollock

ASTROS

C Robinson Chirinos, 1B Yuli Gurriel, 2B Jose Altuve, 3B Alex Bregman, SS Carlos Correa, LF Michael Brantley, CF Jake Marisnick, RF George Springer, DH Yordan Alvarez

YANKEES

C Gary Sanchez, 1B Luke Voit, 2B DJ LeMahieu, 3B Gio Urshela, SS Gleyber Torres, LF Giancarlo Stanton, CF Brett Gardner, RF Aaron Judge, DH Edwin Encarnacion

The best player on any of the Orioles, Royals, Tigers or Marlins, by total WAR, has been Jonathan Villar, acquired in a midseason trade by Baltimore last summer. At the time, the competitive Brewers were trying to upgrade at second base, so they traded their second baseman (Villar) and a couple of prospects for the non-competitive Orioles' second baseman, Jonathan Schoop. Since then, Villar has been the 42nd-best player in baseball, just ahead of Trea Turner, Paul Goldschmidt and Manny Machado. He has been the ninth-best second baseman, while Schoop is 42nd. It was a masterful trade by the Orioles: 21 homers, 33 steals, 3.8 WAR this year.

So, there are good players on the Superteam, of which Villar is undeniably one. Soler has 44 homers, Alberto is hitting .320, Mondesi has 39 steals, Dozier is slugging .550. But the fact that Villar is the best player that the four teams can produce puts the Superteam's uphill climb in perspective: Teams who are committed to losing don't keep MVP candidates around. Villar is not an MVP candidate, the way Cody Bellinger and Alex Bregman are. He is not even above-average by the standards of the other three teams' rosters: There are 21 Dodgers, Astros or Yankees who have produced more WAR than Villar on a per-plate-appearance level this year. Villar is cast here as the best player on any of four major league rosters.

The Superteam might make it up on depth or pitching, but its nine best players simply can't compete with the nine regulars on any of our three historically great teams:

Superteam: 175 homers, .281/.341/.474, 26.4 WAR (scaled to 600 plate appearances per player)
Dodgers: 199 homers, .276/.361/.532, 42.3 WAR
Astros: 210 homers, .293/.372/.544, 46.2 WAR
Yankees: 206 homers, .279/.355/.519, 39.7 WAR

(Note that all of these teams' WARs are exceptionally high, even higher than the Astros, Dodgers and Yankees' lineups have actually produced this year. That's because we're picking only their very best player performances, after the fact, giving the teams full health and awarding nearly all playing time to those nine best players. Real life doesn't go this smoothly.)

But those are just the starters. In theory, depth could benefit the Superteam. There's no Cody Bellinger on a 100-loss team, almost by definition, but there might be a whole lot of Mike Fords.

On the other hand, depth is part of what makes these Dodgers, Astros and Yankees so incredible. They're not building nine-man lineups, but 13-man lineups -- players able to platoon, to move around the field and to not just fill in but very nearly replicate injured starters. Over the course of a full season, when 50 or 60 players might be called upon, the Superteam's depth almost certainly would win out. But for just a 25-man roster, the good teams are nearly as deep:

SUPERTEAM

C Jorge Alfaro, INF Miguel Rojas, OF Anthony Santander. UT Jon Berti

DODGERS

C Russell Martin, INF Enrique Hernandez, OF Matt Beaty, UT Chris Taylor

ASTROS

C Martin Maldonado, INF Abraham Toro, OF Josh Reddick, UT Aledmys Diaz

YANKEES

C Austin Romine, INF Didi Gregorius, OF Cameron Maybin, UT Mike Ford

Superteam: .276/.330/.437, 4.6 WAR (scaled to 250 plate appearances per player)
Dodgers: .254/.331/.434, 4.1 WAR
Astros: .251/.322/.425, 3.9 WAR
Yankees: .260/.318/.473, 3.6 WAR

The Superteam inches up, but barely.

As to starting pitchers:

SUPERTEAM

Matthew Boyd, John Means, Brad Keller, Spencer Turnbull

DODGERS

Clayton Kershaw, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Walker Buehler, Rich Hill

ASTROS

Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Zack Greinke, Wade Miley

YANKEES

James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, Domingo German, J.A. Happ

The Superteam's staff has one All-Star appearance (Means, this year) and zero Cy Young votes. The other three teams' pitchers have won five Cy Youngs and appeared in 31 All-Star Games. But it's not quite as bad as it looks. The Superteam's rotation actually has been better than the Yankees' rotation, despite a 28-48 combined record this year (thanks to terrible offenses behind them and terrible bullpens protecting their leads). Still, it's not great:

Superteam: 4.24 ERA, 4.31 FIP, 12.0 WAR (scaled to 175 innings per pitcher)
Dodgers: 2.84 ERA, 3.51 FIP, 15.6 WAR
Astros: 3.08 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 17.0 WAR
Yankees: 4.45 ERA, 4.62 FIP, 10.5 WAR

Again, in a longer season the Superteam might benefit. It's fair to say the Superteam's eighth- and ninth-best starters -- Daniel Norris and Jakob Junis, maybe? -- are better than Houston's. But Houston isn't going to need eight starters to get through October, and at the top of the staffs it's a huge mismatch.

For bullpens, we chose to limit our options to actual relievers, so unused starting pitchers (for example, Daniel Norris, Jakob Junis) were not generally considered for the Superteam's bullpen. Pitchers such as Ross Stripling and Kenta Maeda, who have both started and relieved this year, and who are likely to be in the Dodgers' actual postseason bullpen, were:

SUPERTEAM

CL Ian Kennedy, RP Mychal Givens, RP Scott Barlow, RP Buck Farmer, RP Shawn Armstrong, RP Jarlin Garcia, RP Jose Cisnero, SWING Sandy Alcantara

DODGERS

CL Kenley Jansen, RP Pedro Baez, RP Yimi Garcia, RP Ross Stripling, RP Dustin May, RP Kenta Maeda, RP Joe Kelly, SWING Julio Urias

ASTROS

CL Roberto Osuna, RP Ryan Pressly, RP Will Harris, RP Joe Smith, RP Hector Rondon, RP Chris Devenski, RP Josh James, SWING Brad Peacock

YANKEES

CL Aroldis Chapman, RP Tommy Kahnle, RP Adam Ottavino, RP Chad Green, RP David Hale, RP Zack Britton, RP Luis Cessa, SWING Jonathan Loaisiga

Superteam: 3.96 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 7.3 WAR (scaled to 65 innings per pitcher)
Dodgers: 3.74 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 7.9 WAR
Astros: 3.24 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 6.9 WAR
Yankees: 3.15 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 8.4 WAR

Add it all up:

  • Superteam: 50.3 WAR

  • Dodgers: 69.9 WAR

  • Astros: 74.0 WAR

  • Yankees: 62.2 WAR

To repeat something from earlier: 74 WAR is a crazy-high total for the Astros, and it would equate to about a 120-win team in real life. But it assumes almost perfect health and almost perfect decision-making by the Astros, funneling nearly all of their playing time to the players who actually were the best this year.

But the same applies to the Superteam. The ex post facto nature of this exercise benefits them most of all, because it allows us to accurately pick, from the 215 or so mostly anonymous players these four teams will field this year, the 25 who actually had the best years -- in many cases, career years, years unlike any they've ever had or will have again.

Indeed, if we were to use not actual, observed WAR to measure each roster's strength, but projected, future WAR, the Superteam would fall even further behind. In that case, team strength would look something more like this:

  • Superteam: 30.9 total projected WAR

  • Dodgers: 54.4 WAR

  • Astros: 54.3 WAR

  • Yankees: 54.1 WAR

The Superteam built above, in other words, projects to be somewhere around a .500 team, assuming good health, while the others project to be around 100-win teams. I think we can say, conclusively, that four teams put together still aren't as good as the Astros, the Dodgers or the Yankees. Wild.

Do I hear five teams?

Superteam 2: Superteam + Blue Jays. Add Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Bo Bichette, Danny Jansen, Wilmer Font and Ken Giles. Remove Miguel Rojas, Trey Mancini, Jorge Alfaro, Jose Cisnero and Sandy Alcantara.

Total WAR: 58.1.

Do I hear six teams?

Superteam 3: Superteam 2 + Mariners. Add Kyle Seager, Tom Murphy, Marco Gonzales and Sam Tuivailala. Remove Jon Berti, Danny Jansen, Brad Keller and Jarlin Garcia.

Total WAR: 64.3, good enough to pass this year's Yankees (who, it's worth noting, are without excellent outfielders Aaron Hicks and Mike Tauchman, both key contributors this year but both out for the season, and Luis Severino and Dellin Betances, who have no statistical records to go on this year but could each return for the playoffs).

Do I hear seven teams?

Superteam 4: Superteam 3 + Rockies. Add Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Ryan McMahon, Jon Gray, German Marquez and Scott Oberg. Remove Adalberto Mondesi, Hanser Alberto, Garrett Cooper, Spencer Turnbull, Marco Gonzales and Buck Farmer. Break the rules and move Bo Bichette to second base.

Total WAR: 68.4. Still worse than the Dodgers and the Astros. Do I hear eight teams?

Superteam 5: Superteam 4 + Pirates. Add Josh Bell, Bryan Reynolds, Jacob Stallings and Felipe Vazquez. Remove Ryan McMahon, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Pedro Severino and Shawn Armstrong.

Total WAR: 72.9. Ahead of the Dodgers and somehow still behind the Astros.

Do. I. Hear. Niiiiiiine teams?

Superteam 6: Superteam 5 + White Sox. Add Lucas Giolito, James McCann, Aaron Bummer and Tim Anderson. Remove Matthew Boyd, Jacob Stallings, Scott Barlow and ... Jonathan Villar.

Total WAR: 75.7. Phew.

Is the conclusion too hard to believe? Does it seem credible if you simply look at the rosters?

SUPERTEAM

C Tom Murphy, 1B Josh Bell, 2B Bo Bichette, 3B Nolan Arenado, SS Trevor Story, LF Bryan Reynolds, CF Whit Merrifield, RF Hunter Dozier, DH Jorge Soler, UT Tim Anderson, UT Kyle Seager, UT Anthony Santander, UT James McCann, SP Lucas Giolito, SP John Means, SP Jon Gray, SP German Marquez, RP Felipe Vazquez, RP Ian Kennedy, RP Ken Giles, RP Mychal Givens, RP Sam Tuivailala, RP Aaron Bummer, RP Scott Oberg, RP Wilmer Font

ASTROS

C Robinson Chirinos, 1B Yuli Gurriel, 2B Jose Altuve, 3B Alex Bregman, SS Carlos Correa, LF Michael Brantley, CF Jake Marisnick, RF George Springer, DH Yordan Alvarez, UT Aledmys Diaz, UT Abraham Toro, UT Josh Reddick, UT Martin Maldonado, SP Gerrit Cole, SP Justin Verlander, SP Zack Greinke, SP Wade Miley, RP Ryan Pressly, RP Roberto Osuna, RP Will Harris, RP Joe Smith, RP Hector Rondon, RP Chris Devenski, RP Josh James, RP Brad Peacock

The Astros have the two best starting pitchers, maybe the three best. They have, easily, the best player (in Bregman), and by WAR per plate appearance this year they have the three best (Bregman, Alvarez, Springer). They have five of the top seven, with only Trevor Story and Bo Bichette reaching 5 WAR per 600 plate appearances on the Superteam side. While depth eventually will favor the Superteam, all of the 104-win teams have built extremely deep 25-man rosters. Of our original Superteam 1 players, maybe half would have made the Dodgers' Opening Day roster.

The point is, this is really some kind of era we're living in. You're seeing some of the worst baseball that's ever been played. The Tigers actually don't have a single above-average hitter, in any number of plate appearances above two. And you're seeing some of the best baseball that's ever been played. According to Baseball Prospectus' third-order winning percentages, this year's Astros and Dodgers actually are the two best teams since 1950. It's amazing that these teams have coexisted in the same league, occasionally playing against each other, standing next to each other, and had it even look like baseball at all. It's a baseball miracle.

But that's not the payoff for this era. The payoff is the postseason, when as many as five 100-win teams -- and three historically great ones -- are going to smash into each other, with barely a below-average player in the bunch. Truly, it can't get here fast enough.

* In cases of injury, the player was included on the roster if he seemed likely to return sometime this year or if he would return but for his team being out of contention. He was not included if he definitely is out for the year, like the Marlins' Brian Anderson. Players who have been traded away, like the former Tiger Nick Castellanos, aren't eligible. There was some preference to players with more playing time, but mainly we went with the most productive players on a per-PA basis. And players are allowed to play slightly out of position if, as with Whit Merrifield, they've played at least some significant time at the position to which we wish to assign them. We used Baseball-Reference's WAR for hitters and FanGraphs' WAR for pitchers.

World champions: Emma Coburn

Published in Athletics
Friday, 13 September 2019 09:55

In the next part of our series in which Stuart Weir talks to London 2017 gold medallists, American Emma Coburn reflects on an unexpected steeplechase victory

What do you remember about the 2017 World Championships in London?

The 2017 World Championships was definitely one of the top moments of my career. I came into that race ranked sixth in the world.

In all the Diamond Leagues that I had competed in earlier in the year I was finishing fifth or sixth by a big margin so I thought, coming into it, that if I could run perfectly I could sneak on to the podium and that in a world championship or Olympic race – without rabbits – there are always more question marks and anything can happen.

I came into that race with the intention to stay with the leaders for the first half of the race or the first 2000m and then just see what happened. It worked out and I felt great.

The combination of my training, the weather, the group of women that I was running with, the pacing, the crowd and the stadium – all of that came together to be a really perfect day.

Now you are introduced as the world champion – has life changed?

No. Being introduced as the world champion is something that will probably stick with me, definitely throughout my running career and maybe even beyond that. That has certainly been a little different.

But I’m still just as eager as I was before and just as hungry to have bigger successes and improve my times and my performances and have consistency in the sport. My approach to racing and training has not changed at all but it is a nice thing to hear, being introduced as the world champion.

Kenya and East Africa normally dominate the steeplechase so it was interesting to see the American success in 2017.

It was cool. Me and Courtney (London silver medallist Frerichs) both had the best races of our lives. I think that in that moment of the race, she was right on my shoulder, and seeing that she was still with me made me feel confident that we could do it and to continue pressing.

We definitely had an energy fighting up there together, which was cool. She and I are friends and we talk outside of track so it was really fun to get to experience that with her. In big championship races, anything is possible and I think Courtney and I proved that in 2017 and hope to continue to prove that in Doha and in competing in 2020 as well.

What is your approach to Doha?

I’m lucky that I have an auto qualifier for Doha from winning in 2017. The beauty of having that auto qualifier is that I can really just focus all my training on Doha.

Doha is going to be hot and it’s going to be a battle but Rio was definitely hot and I did well there, getting the bronze medal. The race is still 3000m and hopefully right around nine minutes so I’m just going to approach it like I do most races and be prepared for anything.

Click here for more interviews in the series.

For a tournament that is only 32 years old, the Rugby World Cup has packed in a lot.

But how much do you remember from the previous eight tournaments?

Take our quiz and find out.

The Rugby World Cup starts in Japan on 20 September and you can follow live commentary on every game on BBC Radio 5 Live and BBC Radio 5 Live Sports Extra, with live text commentary on the majority of matches on the BBC Sport website and app.

Find out more about the World Cup:

Adam Beard will link up with Wales' World Cup squad in Japan early next week after having his appendix removed.

Ospreys lock Beard, capped 16 times, was taken to hospital in Wales before the squad's departure on Wednesday.

The Welsh Rugby Union said that he "had his appendix removed uneventfully" and is "recovering well".

Beard, 23, will be assessed on arrival in Japan, with the hope he is available for their opening Pool D game against Georgia in Toyota on 23 September.

Wales are likely to be without Beard's fellow lock Cory Hill for that game as he continues his recovery from a stress fracture in his leg.

Hill was named in Wales' 31-man World Cup squad, with the second pool fixture against Australia on 29 September being his initial target.

Warren Gatland's side then face pool games against Fiji and Uruguay.

Smith Heads Back To Salem Looking For Another Win

Published in Racing
Friday, 13 September 2019 08:00

TOLEDO, Ohio – Rarely does a new driver step up the ladder into a new racing series and thoroughly dominate.

Sure, Davey Allison won two Monster Energy Cup Series races as a rookie back in 1987, but he also finished outside the top ten in 12 of his 22 starts, and failed to finish six times. Six years later, Jeff Gordon would go winless in his rookie season and fail to finish eleven times.

Both drivers eventually figured it out, and both have been inducted into the NASCAR Hall of Fame for their accomplishments in the sport.

Chandler Smith is 17 years old. He’s yet to run a full season in the ARCA Menards Series, making appearances on the short tracks in 2018 and adding WWT Raceway and Pocono Raceway to his schedule in 2019. He’s made a total of 18 career starts, which for a driver his age may have been unheard of a decade ago.

But that’s far from the most impressive part of the Talking Rock, Ga., native’s brief career.

Smith has won six times, finished in the top five thirteen times, and finished in the top ten in every start but one. He’s led 1,422 laps out of 3,177 he’s completed. He also set a modern era ARCA Menards Series record by starting from the General Tire Pole in each of his first four career appearances.

It’s not just in ARCA where Smith’s talents have been on display. He’s made the leap into the NASCAR Gander Outdoors Truck Series in 2019. In three starts he’s earned two top-five finishes and has been in the top ten in all three. He finished a career best second in his last appearance at Bristol, pushing his average finish to an impressive 4.7.

Not bad for a young man not yet eligible to vote.

Smith returns to the ARCA Menards Series for the first time since July in Saturday night’s Kentuckiana Ford Dealers Fall Classic 200 at Salem Speedway. In last year’s race, Smith started outside the front row and took the lead on lap one and led 199 of the race’s 200 laps to earn his second win of the season.

Hard to believe anyone could improve on that performance, but for Smith he thinks he can.

“I guess we just need to go down and lead that one more lap,” Smith joked. “We should have led that lap last year but Gus Dean led a lap on pit road. We did everything else we could do there last year so we need to go get that one extra lap this time.”

Smith will undoubtedly be a challenger for the victory at Salem. Being near the front and battling for the victory will put him in proximity to his Venturini Motorsports teammates Michael Self and Christian Eckes, two drivers that not only will also be battling for the win but are fighting it out for the ARCA Menards Series championship.

Smith isn’t involved in the battle for the driver’s championship, afterall, he’s only run nine of the seventeen races so far. But his No. 20 car is leading the owner’s championship standings, which means Smith will not be backing down to his teammates as the race winds to its conclusion.

“Every point definitely matters for us too,” Smith said. “We really want to get that owner’s championship for Billy and the team. Everyone has worked so hard to make it happen for the 20 team all season long, and I can only speak for what it’s like when I am in the car, but I think we’ve had the best cars out there. I know my teammates are battling for the drivers championship but for us, it’s all about that owner’s championship.”

Smith’s time in the No. 20 Toyota for Venturini Motorsports is limited by the fact, that at seventeen years of age, he is not eligible to compete on the majority of the superspeedways the ARCA Menards Series races on per ARCA rules. Despite only running about half of the races, Smith has built a strong report with the team and believes that is the secret to his success.

“All of us are strictly business at the track,” he said. “We all know what we want and what we need and our only job at the track is to get it done. It’s almost like we don’t even have to say it. Everyone knows it and we all work towards it.”

Flyers sign defenseman Provorov to 6-year deal

Published in Hockey
Friday, 13 September 2019 08:07

PHILADELPHIA -- The Flyers have signed defenseman Ivan Provorov to a six-year, $40.5 million contract.

The deal on Friday with the 22-year-old restricted free agent from Russia has an average annual value of $6.75 million.

Provorov has 30 goals and 97 points in his first three seasons. He holds the Flyers record for consecutive games played from his NHL debut. His first game was in October 2016.

Provorov won the Barry Ashbee Trophy as the Flyers' outstanding defenseman in his rookie season. He is the youngest Flyer to receive the honor.

General manager Chuck Fletcher says Provorov has developed into one of the NHL's top young defensemen. He adds that his "commitment to the game and his teammates is second to none."

Provorov was drafted by the Flyers as the seventh overall pick in 2015.

GLENEAGLES, Scotland – Europe’s Georgia Hall and Celine Boutier said they fed off the enormous galleries that turned out Friday at Gleneagles to watch the Solheim Cup.

Hall was on fire with her iron play, teaming with Boutier to defeat Lexi Thompson and Brittany Altomare, 2 and 1. Boutier holed some timely putts in the foursomes (better ball) format.

The European duo took down the world’s highest ranked player in this event, ending world No. 3 Thompson’s brilliant run of undefeated play in the Solheim Cup. It was Thompson’s first loss in Solheim Cup play since 2013, which was her debut in the event. She had gone nine consecutive matches without losing until Friday’s defeat.

The Euros said they really benefitted from the home-field advantage while taking a 2 ½ to  1 ½ lead in the morning session.

“I love being at home in Europe and having all the home crowd behind us,” Boutier said. “It's definitely something special.”

The first tee staging was impressive, dwarfing the setup at European Solheim Cup venues in the past. More than 2,200 fans filled the bleachers there, according to IMG, with three or four times that engulfing the entire length of the first hole, from tee to green.

“I feel like my heart is going to explode,” Boutier said.

Scotland, the birthplace of golf, is showing the Europeans and Americans just how much they love the game this week.

“We had great crowds today,” said Ross Hallett, IMG’s executive tournament director. “I don’t know how many yet, but we we’re hoping for 20,000, or a little bit more. We’re expecting 100,000 for the week.”

That would be almost double the total turnout for the AIG Women’s British Open, which was played at Woburn just outside London. Hallett estimates more than 60,000 turned out for that.

“The fans are just unbelievable here in Scotland,” said England’s Bronte Law, who teamed with Carlota Ciganda to halve Morgan Pressel and Marina Alex in the opening match.

Neymar back but Cavani, Mbappe out - Tuchel

Published in Soccer
Friday, 13 September 2019 09:06

Neymar will make his Paris Saint-Germain return against Strasbourg in Ligue 1 on Saturday, but Kylian Mbappe and Edinson Cavani will miss out as they continue to battle to be fit in time for next week's Champions League opener against Real Madrid.

The Brazil international, who was heavily linked with a move to Barcelona over the summer, returned to action for his country over the international break and scored against Colombia but is yet to feature for PSG this season, while Mbappe and Cavani suffered injuries against Toulouse last month.

- Neymar to Barca: Biggest transfer which never happened

"Yes, clearly [Neymar will be in the squad]," PSG coach Thomas Tuchel told a news conference on Friday. "Like I said, I am happy the transfer period is over -- everything is clear.

"We have a big squad of players with character, talent and experience. Neymar is in the group, that is for sure. He can focus now. He needs to make his return as he is a PSG player, so he is in the squad for this one.

"It has not been easy for him in recent weeks, but that is life. We had the chance to speak on Thursday, but we are yet to speak today. My challenge is to speak with him about his position on the pitch when attacking and defending."

Asked about possible whistling and jeering from PSG supporters at Parc des Princes when Neymar returns to action, Tuchel said he understands their feelings, but cannot control the actions.

"I can understand the fans are not happy with the situation and what happened," he said. "However, I cannot influence their reaction, nor control the fans.

"The only things that I can control are in my team. Neymar is our player and we need to stay focused on this topic. I am convinced he will give everything to achieve our aims. His first objective is to win against Strasbourg."

Tuchel also said that intends to hand goalkeeper Keylor Navas his debut against Strasbourg while summer signing Ander Herrera has also declared himself fit.

Real Madrid must be careful with Hazard - Zidane

Published in Soccer
Friday, 13 September 2019 04:11

Real Madrid coach Zinedine Zidane has said he will not rush Eden Hazard into action despite the club's top summer signing being ready to play.

Hazard, who joined Madrid from Chelsea in June for a fee that could reach £130 million, has been sidelined since Aug. 16 with a thigh injury and has yet to make his competitive debut.

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"Regarding Hazard, we have to go little by little," Zidane said in Friday's news conference.

"He has been injured for three weeks. He was back training this week. We have to go carefully with him. We know what the situation is, he is ready and that's the most important thing. I will give him minutes here and there, not trying to push him too much to get the best out of him. We have seven games in 21 days and we need to use our heads with Hazard."

Madrid host Levante on Saturday before opening their Champions League campaign at Paris Saint-Germain on Wednesday.

Zidane said he will continue to rely on Gareth Bale, who has enjoyed a strong start to the campaign.

Bale was involved in a tense stand-off with Zidane during preseason, with the coach saying he was keen for Bale to leave.

"I've always said he has amazing quality," Zidane said. "He is a great player. We all know what happened this summer. "I'm happy, he is happy. The fans too, we have to move forward. For me all the players are the best that we have and Gareth is one of them"

Asked about Bale's comments in which he said he felt he was made a scapegoat for Madrid's poor 2018-19 campaign, Zidane said: "We are all in the same boat, we are all guilty if things go wrong. We want to change things. It's up to us. Comments and criticisms from outside will never change. We need to win more games."

Madrid have taken five points in their opening three games and are fifth in the table.

"We know the situation already," Zidane said. "We've lost points but this has just begun. We know all the games are important. We know the importance of getting points to move up the table."

Injuries have been a problem for Madrid with Luka Modric the 10th player to be ruled out since the start of the season.

"Luka has had two games in three days," Zidane said. "I hope Luka recovers as soon as possible for us. The fact that he is out injured and can't play tomorrow we just have to accept it."

Asked if there is an explanation for Modric being the eighth Madrid player to suffer a muscular injury since the start of the season, Zidane said: "No. Every club has similar problems. We have international players and that makes things difficult. But we work well [in training], I have confidence in the backroom staff, they are the best. After Luca's injury we hope there will be no more."

With Modric sidelined, James Rodriguez, who has recovered from a calf problem, is expected to start against Levante.

"There are always negatives and positives," Zidane said. "There are players that can come in. This is the squad that we have and everyone is going to get their chance to play and contribute to the team."

Among those players is Vinicius, who made his Brazil debut this week.

Zidane defended Vinicius, who has been criticised in recent weeks for lacking the spark he showed in his first season at Madrid.

"You don't think he is the same player? That's what the media thinks," Zidane said. "I completely trust Vinicius and I'm the coach. He is 18, he is playing for Madrid. It's like everything, things take time and he is in the process of doing well like everyone. Sometimes he won't play. "

Midfielder Federico Valverde has been ruled out against Levante, and becomes Madrid's 12th injured player of the campaign.

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