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Joe Mansueto has bought out Andrew Hauptman's controlling interest in the Chicago Fire, giving the founder of investment management firm Morningstar 100 percent ownership of the MLS team, the Fire announced on Friday.
Mansueto, who in 2018 purchased a 49-percent stake in the team, will take on the role of chairman as sole owner of the Fire, effective immediately. Terms of the deal were not disclosed.
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"I joined Andrew as a partner because he developed a tremendous platform for continued soccer growth across Chicago and beyond," said Mansueto. "He and the entire organization have worked tirelessly to dramatically increase the profile of the Chicago Fire Soccer Club, MLS and the game overall and have left a wonderful legacy for our city."
The transaction coincides with the Fire's soon-to-be-completed move back to Chicago's Soldier Field. The Fire spent the past 13 years at suburban Bridgeview's SeatGeek Stadium, but recently concluded an agreement with the Village of Bridgeview to exit their lease agreement. Earlier this week, the Fire received approval from the Chicago Park District board to move toward an agreement that will enable the team to play its 2020 season at Soldier Field.
"The timing of this transaction couldn't be better as we return the world's game to the city I love," added Mansueto. "Andrew and his family will always be part of the Fire family that he cares so very much about."
The sale concludes Hauptman's lackluster tenure as the Fire's owner. Hauptman, chairman of Andell Inc., purchased the team for "in excess of $30 million" in 2007. Initially, there was success on the field as the Fire qualified for the MLS playoffs in each of Hauptman's first three seasons as owner. But on-field success then proved elusive. The Fire qualified for the MLS playoffs just twice in the following nine seasons, and attendance was similarly underwhelming. The Fire drew just 14,806 fans per game in 2018, after drawing 17,383 -- during a run to the playoffs, it should be noted -- the previous campaign.
The Fire sit 10th in MLS' 12-team Eastern Conference in 2019, with 34 points from 30 matches. Seven of their eight wins this term have come in Bridgeview.
"I'm extremely proud of the positioning of the club at this historic juncture," said Hauptman. "I know that the next step of returning to Soldier Field will make Chicago proud and I look forward to cheering on Joe, the club and its supporters as they continue this legacy."
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Archer and Curran dismantle Australia to earn valuable lead
Published in
Cricket
Friday, 13 September 2019 11:03
England 294 (Buttler 70, Root 57, Marsh 5-46) and 9 for 0 lead Australia 225 (Smith 80, Archer 6-62) by 78 runs
If Australia want to take a series victory as well as retaining the Ashes they will have to do it the hard way after Jofra Archer claimed his second six-wicket haul, and Sam Curran enjoyed an eye-catching return to the side, to earn England a priceless 69-run lead despite another fine innings from Steven Smith.
To no one's surprise, Smith top-scored but this time fell for 80 - his lowest score of the series - when he was lbw to Chris Woakes, the moment when England probably believed they could end the innings with an advantage. While Smith was there, even with the tail, anything was possible and England would have feared the worst when Joe Root dropped him at slip on 66.
Neither was it a quiet end to the day with Joe Denly, who was late to the ground on the second day after the birth of his daughter, dropped in the slips by Marcus Harris and against the final delivery Rory Burns was given lbw to a ball which DRS showed had pitched well outside leg stump. A day of solid batting - and that's far from assured from either side in this series - and England will have share of the series in their sights.
Marnus Labuschagne continued in his role as Smith-lite but either side of that pair there were familiar problems for Australia with the openers again dispatched cheaply - David Warner with a hint of DRS controversy - and the middle-order failing to offer the support Smith needed.
The major shift in the innings came after tea when Australia lost 4 for 27 - including the scalp of Smith - with Curran producing a terrific six-over spell of left-arm swing which accounted for Tim Paine and Pat Cummins in consecutive deliveries. Archer then claimed his fifth wicket to halt a troublesome ninth-wicket stand between Peter Siddle and Nathan Lyon before a spectacular catch at gully by Burns round up Australia. It left Archer, who didn't bowl his fastest but had an excellent control, with 6 for 62 to follow his 6 for 45 at Headingley.
England had resumed on 271 for 8 with Jos Buttler and Jack Leach taking their stand to 68 before the innings was wrapped up by Mitchell Marsh's first five-wicket haul in Tests. If there had been a lot about the home side's display that felt like groundhog day, the same could certainly be said when Australia came out to bat.
Warner managed to get off the mark for the first time in four innings but didn't go much further. It wasn't Stuart Broad who removed him this time, instead a slash at a wide delivery from Archer which Ben Stokes, at second slip, was convinced had been edged and encouraged Root to review. The initial replays suggested daylight between bat and ball, but then a spike appeared on Ultra Edge. Warner appeared happy enough to walk off.
Harris has struggled since replacing Cameron Bancroft and was squared up from around the wicket by Archer, who claimed 2 for 7 off seven overs in his opening spell, with Stokes again in the action as he grabbed a low catch at second slip to leave Australia 14 for 2. That marked the next stage of the contest: Labuschagne and Smith. Either side of lunch it went Australia's way, although Smith was more uncertain than previously in the series, particularly against Archer and the different angled presented by Curran to whom he twice padded up leaving the ball.
It was Archer who sparked England early in the afternoon with a hostile spell to Labuschagne who took a painful blow on the right arm before being pinned lbw, a plan coming to fruition for Archer who had probed away for such a dismissal - similar to how he removed him in the second innings at Old Trafford. After tea he would strike again, having Marsh caught at long leg off a poorly controlled half-hearted pull following another series of short deliveries which had also seen a rare error from Smith when he top edged short of deep square.
Matthew Wade wanted to be positive but was beautifully set up by Curran who sent down a series of away swingers before bringing one back into the pads which Wade played across. That was just a prelude from Curran when, after tea, he produced trademark left-arm dismissals by slanting one across Paine then swinging one back into Cummins' boot in a spell that would read 6-4-6-2. There is a feeling no one really knows what sort of cricketer Curran will become, and how to best fit him in an England Test side, but the bare facts are he has won six out of six Tests at home and played a key role in most of them.
Before all that, Smith had moved to another half century by depositing Leach over long-on - in the process moving beyond 700 runs for the series and into the top 20 of all time - but Curran should have had the most prized scalp to his name as well when Smith tried to upper cut a short delivery. The edge flew high towards Root, but Stokes started to go for the catch which may have disturbed the England captain and it burst through.
For a short while it looked more likely that he would run out of partners than be dismissed, but the first ball of a new spell from Woakes brought the moment England have strived so hard for when Smith missed a straight one. This has been a series full of surprising moments and that was another.
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Canelo climbing 2 weight classes to fight Kovalev
Published in
Breaking News
Friday, 13 September 2019 11:18
Middleweight world champion Canelo Alvarez will climb two weight divisions to challenge light heavyweight world titlist Sergey Kovalev in a fight that was finalized Friday.
Alvarez, who did not demand a catchweight in an attempt to drain Kovalev lower than the division limit of 175 pounds, and Kovalev will meet Nov. 2 (DAZN) at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.
Golden Boy Promotions had hoped to stage the fight at the larger T-Mobile Arena, but the NHL's Vegas Golden Knights have a home game on Nov. 2.
Kovalev is by far the biggest name in the light heavyweight division.
Alvarez, who pressed for the fight, will have the opportunity to win a world title in a fourth weight division after claiming belts at junior middleweight and middleweight and a secondary title at super middleweight.
If Alvarez wins, he would become only the fourth fighter in boxing history to win world titles at junior middleweight and light heavyweight. The other three -- Sugar Ray Leonard, Thomas Hearns and Mike McCallum -- are in the International Boxing Hall of Fame.
"The second phase of my career is continuing just as we had planned, and that's why we are continuing to make great fights to enter into the history books of boxing," Alvarez said. "That's also why I've decided to jump two weight classes against one of the most feared champions of recent years.
"Kovalev is a dangerous puncher, and he's naturally the bigger man, but that's the kind of challenges and risks that I like to face."
Alvarez, boxing's biggest star, has never fought at a weight heavier than 167¼ pounds, which is what he was for his third-round knockout win over Rocky Fielding to win a secondary super middleweight belt in New York in December. Alvarez returned to the 160-pound middleweight division for his next fight in May, a unanimous decision to unify three belts against Daniel Jacobs.
The deal between Golden Boy, Alvarez's promoter, and Main Events, which represents Kovalev, had been close for the past week. However, it got hung up, sources told ESPN, when Top Rank, which has rights to Kovalev stemming from a deal it made with Main Events to put his February rematch with Eleider "Storm" Alvarez on ESPN+, sought a low seven-figure fee to give up its involvement in the bout.
After days at a stalemate, Main Events agreed Wednesday to pay Top Rank what it was seeking. Once that contract was signed, Main Events signed the deal it had made with Golden Boy to finalize the Nov. 2 fight. Part of the agreement gives DAZN rights to future Kovalev fights, at least one if he beats Alvarez -- possibly a rematch -- and two if he loses, before he would return to ESPN under his Top Rank agreement, according to a source.
"We promised to make this fight happen, and now we are delivering it," Golden Boy Promotions CEO Oscar De La Hoya said. "Historic fights have been a hallmark of this company, and we are pleased to once again live up to the high expectations we've set for our fans. The best pound-for-pound fighter is also boxing's biggest star. Few fighters in boxing history can claim to be both like Canelo Alvarez. Now, he'll look to become a four-division world champion against one of the most dangerous fighters of recent years, and I'm certain that he will stop him."
Golden Boy and Main Events both said there were no arguments over the weight for the bout or that the Voluntary Anti-Doping Association would randomly test both fighters.
"In order to be the best, you have to beat the best," Kovalev said. "I have always tried to fight the toughest opponents in my division, but many have ducked me throughout my career. Canelo wanted to fight me; to step up to higher weight and challenge for my belt. I will be ready on Nov. 2."
The sides had tried to make the bout for Sept. 14, but by the time a possible fight with middleweight contender Sergiy Derevyanchenko had fallen apart and Kovalev was offered the fight, Kovalev had already committed to an Aug. 24 mandatory defense against Anthony Yarde in the Los Angeles-based Kovalev's hometown of Chelyabinsk, Russia.
Alvarez announced he would not fight on the weekend of Mexican Independence Day as usual and would instead fight later in the fall so there was more time to make a deal with a top opponent.
DAZN, which is going into the third fight of an five-year, 11-fight, $365 million deal with Alvarez, wanted a third bout with rival Gennady Golovkin. The streaming service signed Golovkin to a nine-figure contract earlier this year, in large measure to assure itself of their third meeting. However, Alvarez (52-1-2, 35 KOs), 28, did not want to fight him next, so who his next opponent would be became a major sticking point.
Various candidates were approved by DAZN, including unbeaten middleweight titleholders Demetrius Andrade and Jermall Charlo, Derevyanchenko (who will face Golovkin on Oct. 5 for a belt stripped from Alvarez) and unbeaten super middleweight titleholders Callum Smith and Billy Joe Saunders. However, a fight with Kovalev, a big puncher with a big name and long track record of fighting top opponents, was the most significant of any fight Alvarez could make outside of GGG.
When the fight between Kovalev and Yarde proved too complicated to get out of, Kovalev (34-3-1, 29 KOs), 36, went through with the bout and scored a one-punch knockout in the 11th round of an exciting battle.
Golden Boy and Alvarez elected to wait until Kovalev-Yarde was in the books before pursuing another opponent, so when Kovalev won -- the first defense of his third world title reign -- the camps picked up negotiations in the days after the fight.
As an insurance policy, a source told ESPN that Golden Boy had struck a deal with Matchroom Boxing promoter Eddie Hearn for Alvarez to face Andrade had Kovalev either lost to Yarde or in the event they were unable to close the deal with Main Events. But Alvarez, the source said, still had not signed off on fighting Andrade.
After Kovalev's second title reign came to an end by seventh-round knockout to Eleider Alvarez in August 2018, he regained the belt by convincing unanimous decision in an immediate rematch on Feb. 2 before taking on Yarde.
"Canelo is to be praised for asking to challenge Sergey Kovalev," Main Events CEO Kathy Duva said. "Win or lose, he will make history, and Sergey is extremely pleased to get the chance to test his mettle against another future Hall of Famer. Anyone who cares at all about the sweet science should circle Nov. 2 on their calendar. I have a feeling that this will be one for the ages."
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Score picks, bold predictions and fantasy tips for every Week 2 NFL game
Published in
Breaking News
Friday, 13 September 2019 05:37
The Week 2 NFL slate is stacked with great matchups. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the keys to every game, a bold prediction for each matchup and final score predictions.
Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a stat to know, and the Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a matchup rating (on a scale of 1-100) and a game projection. ESPN Fantasy's Kyle Soppe and ESPN Chalk's Mackenzie Kraemer hand out helpful nuggets, as well. It's all here to help get you ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let's get into the full Week 2 schedule, starting with an NFC North showdown between the Vikings and Packers.
Jump to a matchup:
MIN-GB | IND-TEN | LAC-DET
SEA-PIT | JAX-HOU | ARI-BAL
DAL-WSH | NE-MIA | SF-CIN
BUF-NYG | KC-OAK | NO-LAR
CHI-DEN | PHI-ATL | CLE-NYJ
Thursday: TB 20, CAR 14
Vikings (1-0) at Packers (1-0)
1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating: 73.5 | Spread: GB -2.5 (44)
What to watch for: The Packers want to run the ball more like the Vikings did last week and improve on the 2.1 yards per carry that Green Bay averaged against the Bears in Week 1. OK, maybe the Packers won't be looking to run 38 times with only 10 passes like Minnesota did Sunday against the Falcons, but coach Matt LaFleur has put an emphasis on the run game this week. But it won't be easy executing against another potential top-10 defense. -- Rob Demovsky
Bold prediction: Both quarterbacks will be sacked a minimum of four times. Minnesota has sacked Aaron Rodgers an average of four times per game since 2015. The improvements the Packers have made to their defensive front forced Mitchell Trubisky down five times last week, so Kirk Cousins could be under duress quite a bit at Lambeau Field, too. -- Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: Packers receiver Davante Adams will likely receive coverage from Minnesota cornerback Xavier Rhodes this week. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Rhodes was the closest defender to Adams on 16 targets last season, which Adams turned into 12 receptions, 124 yards and two touchdowns.
What to know for fantasy: Vikings receiver Stefon Diggs has scored in each of his past five meetings with the Packers, averaging 24.4 points per game in the process. See Week 2 rankings.
Betting nugget: Teams that start 1-0 are 5-18 against the spread (ATS) when they go on the road in Week 2 -- as the 1-0 Vikings do this Sunday -- since the start of 2016. Read more.
Cronin's pick: Vikings 20, Packers 17
Demovsky's pick: Vikings 24, Packers 21
FPI prediction: GB, 54.9% (by an average of 1.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: WR Adams: Nowhere to go but up for Packers' offense ... Vikings confident leaning on Kearse in big nickel role ... Packers admire 'old school' CB Williams' play, if not his choice of music
Colts (0-1) at Titans (1-0)
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 64.0 | Spread: TEN -3 (44.5)
What to watch for: How will the Titans' wide receivers match up against those Colts cornerbacks? Rookies A.J. Brown and Rock Ya-Sin are two physical players, setting up for a fun battle, while Adam Humphries versus Kenny Moore II is a duel of cat-quick players. Perhaps the best one-on-one for Tennessee will be Corey Davis against Pierre Desir. -- Turron Davenport
Bold prediction: The Titans will not have more than two sacks. Tennessee sacked Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield five times (and intercepted him three times) in Week 1. But the Colts have a better offensive line, as they limited Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram and the rest of the Chargers' defense to just two sacks in Week 1. -- Mike Wells
Stat to know: The Colts have won eight of their past 10 road games against the Titans dating back to 2009, averaging 27.1 points per game in those contests.
What to know for fantasy: Derrick Henry is one of only two running backs (Christian McCaffrey) to have scored at least 27 points on three different occasions since Week 14 of last season. See Week 2 rankings.
Betting nugget: Indianapolis is 13-2 straight up and 11-4 ATS in its past 15 games against Tennessee. Read more.
Wells' pick: Titans 21, Colts 20
Davenport's pick: Titans 28, Colts 24
FPI prediction: TEN, 65.7% (by an average of 5.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Going deep with Brissett: Colts QB and conspiracy theorist ... How Eddie George helped RB Henry take off for Titans
Chargers (1-0) at Lions (0-0-1)
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 54.6 | Spread: LAC -2.5 (47.5)
What to watch for: After 154 all-purpose yards in Week 1, Chargers running back Austin Ekeler will face a good defensive front in Detroit. If Ekeler can shake loose against the Lions, it could be a long day for Detroit because it would open up even more passing lanes for Philip Rivers. -- Michael Rothstein
Bold prediction: Joey Bosa records three sacks. The Chargers should heat up the pass rush against a Lions offensive line that allowed three Matthew Stafford sacks in the team's season opener against the Cardinals. -- Eric D. Williams
Stat to know: Rivers posted a Total QBR of 80 on the road last season, the second-best number in the NFL. And the Lions lost four of their final five home games last season and scored 16 points or fewer in each of the four losses.
What to know for fantasy: Ekeler racked up 39.4 fantasy points last weekend, a total that is 3.3 points higher than Melvin Gordon's career high. See Week 2 rankings.
Betting nugget: Los Angeles is 16-8-2 ATS in its past 26 regular-season games that start at 1 p.m. ET. Read more.
Cruz can't pick against Rivers vs. the Lions
Victor Cruz likes Philip Rivers to lead the Chargers to a victory over the Lions.
Williams' pick: Chargers 30, Lions 23
Rothstein's pick: Lions 27, Chargers 24
FPI prediction: LAC, 49.9%
Matchup must-reads: Expect Chargers to lean on WR Allen with TE Henry out ... Hockenson's record debut gives Lions a glimpse of what's to come ... 'Underappreciated' Rivers, streak awe Stafford
Seahawks (1-0) at Steelers (0-1)
1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating: 51.2 | Spread: PIT -4 (46.5)
What to watch for: In the 30-point loss to the Patriots, Pittsburgh was successful on 25% of its third downs and picked up one of three fourth downs. And the Steelers failed to convert on three third-and-1 situations. They will be trying to remedy their previous shortcomings against a tough Seattle front that now includes Jadeveon Clowney. -- Jeremy Fowler
Bold prediction: The Seahawks' secondary will have a new look and much better results compared to the opener, when Seattle allowed Andy Dalton to throw for a career-high 418 yards. Free safety Tedric Thompson, who misplayed a ball that resulted in a 55-yard touchdown, may be out of the starting lineup due to that mistake and/or a leg injury that kept him from practicing Wednesday. -- Brady Henderson
Stat to know: Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was 6-for-8 for 75 yards and a 95 QBR when targeting JuJu Smith-Schuster on Sunday. But when he looked elsewhere, he completed just 54% of his passes and his QBR fell to 12.
What to know for fantasy: Each of Roethlisberger's top eight career fantasy performances has come at home. See Week 2 rankings.
Betting nugget: The over is 11-2 in Pittsburgh's past 13 games as a home favorite. Read more.
Henderson's pick: Seahawks 24, Steelers 23
Fowler's pick: Steelers 21, Seahawks 17
FPI prediction: PIT, 53.6% (by an average of 1.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Inside Big Ben's chance to change his legacy ... Seahawks' secondary, shredded in Week 1, must rebound or change ... Roethlisberger optimistic after big loss: 'Sky's still blue'
Jaguars (0-1) at Texans (0-1)
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 50.4 | Spread: HOU -9.5 (43)
What to watch for: Can Laremy Tunsil and the Texans' offensive line protect Deshaun Watson? In Week 1, the Jaguars did not sack Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, but Watson was sacked an NFL-high six times in the Texans' season opener. -- Sarah Barshop
Bold prediction: The Jaguars will give running back Leonard Fournette 30 touches (or close to it) in Gardner Minshew's first start at quarterback. The Texans' pass-rushers should be pretty eager to get after the rookie, especially J.J. Watt, who did not record a sack, QB hit or tackle against the Saints for the first time in a game in his career. -- Mike DiRocco
Stat to know: Minshew posted the highest completion percentage (88%, min. 15 attempts) in an NFL debut in league history, and his 13 consecutive completions to begin his career was the longest streak by a player who debuted over the past 40 years. Per Elias Sports Bureau research, Minshew will be the first rookie QB drafted in the sixth round or later to start a game this early in the season since Don Majkowski did so for the Packers in 1987.
What to know for fantasy: Jags receiver Dede Westbrook is averaging 7.6 targets per game over his past five contests. That's more than Brandin Cooks averaged in 2018. See Week 2 rankings.
Betting nugget: The past 24 quarterbacks to make their first career start as an underdog of at least seven points are 16-8 ATS. Read more.
DiRocco's pick: Texans 27, Jaguars 17
Barshop's pick: Texans 24, Jaguars 16
FPI prediction: HOU, 73.7% (by an average of 9.0 points)
Matchup must-reads: How many hits can QB Watson endure? ... Issues that took down Jags' 2018 season have returned
Cardinals (0-0-1) at Ravens (1-0)
1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating: 49.7 | Spread: BAL -13 (46)
What to watch for: How will the Ravens defend the Air Raid offense with their banged-up secondary? Cornerback Jimmy Smith (ankle) and nickelback Tavon Young (neck) are out Sunday, and top corner Marlon Humphrey (back) is not at full strength. The Cardinals will test the depth of the Baltimore secondary, as they used at least four wide receivers on 58 plays in Week 1. -- Jamison Hensley
Bold prediction: Arizona QB Kyler Murray will throw for more than 300 yards and three touchdowns. Murray showed just what he's capable of during the fourth quarter in Week 1. It's safe to say that coach Kliff Kingsbury learned his lesson and won't be as creative early on in Baltimore. -- Josh Weinfuss
Stat to know: Lamar Jackson enters the matchup at 7-1 as a starting quarterback. Only 12 QBs in the Super Bowl era have started their careers at 8-1 or better through nine starts.
What to know for fantasy: In Week 1, Jackson had more touchdown passes (five) than rush attempts (three). In his rookie season, Jackson had six touchdown passes and 147 rushing attempts. See Week 2 rankings.
Betting nugget: Baltimore is 31-0 all-time straight up as a double-digit favorite, the only active franchise to never lose such a game. However, it is 3-10 ATS in the past 13 such games. Read more.
Weinfuss' pick: Ravens 38, Cardinals 24
Hensley's pick: Ravens 30, Cardinals 20
FPI prediction: BAL, 85.7% (by an average of 15.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: QB Jackson sends message, via airmail, to every NFL defense ... Kingsbury's Cardinals offense a mix of old and new ... Laughter and gladiator masks: OLB Suggs' Ravens reunion is historic
Cowboys (1-0) at Redskins (0-1)
1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating: 46.1 | Spread: DAL -5.5 (46.5)
What to watch for: The Redskins' passing game -- with tight end Jordan Reed working the inside and rookie receiver Terry McLaurin (125 yards last week) on the outside -- will be something to watch in this NFC East matchup. But Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott is 5-1 versus Washington, with six touchdowns and no interceptions. And he connected eight times with Amari Cooper for 180 yards in a win over Washington last season. -- John Keim
Bold prediction: The Redskins' Adrian Peterson will rush for more than 100 yards and score to break a tie with Hall of Famer Jim Brown for the fifth-most touchdowns in league history with 106. The Cowboys allowed only three 100-yard rushers last season, but Peterson came close with 24 carries for 99 yards at FedEx Field. -- Todd Archer
Stat to know: Prescott set career highs on play-action last week, going 14-of-15 for 207 yards and three touchdowns. He was also 9-for-11 on throws 10-plus yards downfield.
Cruz: Prescott is only going to get better
Victor Cruz and Rob Ninkovich both expect Dak Prescott will lead the Cowboys past the Redskins.
What to know for fantasy: Dallas receiver Michael Gallup had seven catches for 109 yards through six weeks last season. On Sunday against the Giants, he caught all seven of his targets for 158 yards. See Week 2 rankings.
Betting nugget: Regarding Washington, 0-1 teams that are home underdogs in their second game of the season are 25-8 ATS and 19-15 straight up since 2010. Read more.
Archer's pick: Cowboys 30, Redskins 21
Keim's pick: Cowboys 31, Redskins 23
FPI prediction: DAL, 60.7% (by an average of 3.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Is Prescott finally ready to be consistently great? ... 40 years ago, 'Too Tall' Jones walked away, returned like Witten ... RB Guice has knee injury; Peterson back in mix
Patriots (1-0) at Dolphins (0-1)
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 42.3 | Spread: NE -18.5 (48.5)
What to watch for: You could see potential career days for Sony Michel, James White and the Patriots' running game. The Dolphins loaded the box to stop the Ravens' run game last week, and as a result, they were torched by Lamar Jackson's arm. But even then, they still gave up 265 rushing yards to Mark Ingram II and the rest of the Ravens' backfield. -- Cameron Wolfe
Bold prediction: Assuming the NFL doesn't step in and place him on the commissioner's exempt list, Pats receiver Antonio Brown will play and score at least one touchdown. Tom Brady will want to get Brown involved early in his New England debut. -- Mike Reiss
Stat to know: The Dolphins sustained blocks through 2.5 seconds just 35% of the time in Week 1, the second-worst rate in the NFL according to ESPN's pass block win rate using NFL Next Gen Stats. Meanwhile, Michael Bennett had a pass rush win rate of 39% in Week 1, third-best among individual pass-rushers.
What to know for fantasy: The Patriots have struggled in Miami recently, but Brady has been a top-three fantasy quarterback in two of his past three trips to South Beach. See Week 2 rankings.
Betting nugget: No team in the Super Bowl era has ever been more than an 18-point favorite on the road before the end of September. The largest home underdog in that span was 18 points, done twice (1969 and 1970). Both of those underdogs were shut out and did not cover. Read more.
Reiss' pick: Patriots 37, Dolphins 16
Wolfe's pick: Patriots 44, Dolphins 20
FPI prediction: NE, 85.7% (by an average of 15.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Why daunting Dolphins rebuild will be done The Brian Flores Way ... Patriots worried about Brian Flores' familiarity? Nope ... Dolphins players can check out or use embarrassment as fuel
49ers (1-0) at Bengals (0-1)
1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating: 39.1 | Spread: CIN -2 (46)
What to watch for: San Francisco created four turnovers in the win over Tampa Bay, including two interceptions returned for touchdowns. The 49ers will be a good test for a revamped Bengals offense under rookie coach Zac Taylor. In last week's loss to the Seahawks, the Bengals racked up 418 passing yards. -- Ben Baby
Bold prediction: The 49ers will get five sacks. San Francisco sacked Jameis Winston three times in Week 1, but it could have been more had Winston not been so adept at evading the rush. Andy Dalton isn't as slippery, and the Bengals yielded five sacks to Seattle in their first game. -- Nick Wagoner
Stat to know: San Francisco only made two interceptions last season, the fewest by any team since 1940. But then it picked off three passes in a Week 1 win to start 2019. The Niners have not had multiple interceptions in each of their first two games of a season since 1974.
What to know for fantasy: Bengals receiver John Ross III has caught seven touchdown passes in his past eight games played without A.J. Green. See Week 2 rankings.
Betting nugget: San Francisco is 5-12 ATS in 1:00 p.m. ET games since 2015. Read more.
Wagoner's pick: 49ers 27, Bengals 23
Baby's pick: 49ers 24, Bengals 17
FPI prediction: SF, 54.1% (by an average of 1.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: What lessons did rookie Bosa learn in his 49ers debut? ... Bengals WR Green out of boot; no timeline for return
Bills (1-0) at Giants (0-1)
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 18.5 | Spread: BUF -1.5 (43.5)
What to watch for: Saquon Barkley ran for 120 yards on just 11 carries in Week 1, the second-fewest carries in his career. That's not likely to happen again, especially against a Bills defense that has been so good against the pass since the start of last season. "We all know that Saquon is a focus of our offense. ... Yeah, we want him to get the football," coach Pat Shurmur said. It's not hard to see where this one is headed, for good reason. -- Jordan Raanan
Bold prediction: Bills quarterback Josh Allen set a career high in Week 1 with 254 passing yards -- he'll set another career high in Week 2 with his first 300-yard game through the air against a Giants secondary that just surrendered 405 passing yards to Dak Prescott. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques
Stat to know: The Giants are 4-12 at home over the past two seasons, the worst home win percentage (.250) in the NFL during that span. But they need a win to avoid a sixth 0-2 start in their past seven seasons.
What to know for fantasy: Eli Manning has thrown for 300 yards in three consecutive games, matching the longest streak of his career. See Week 2 rankings.
Betting nugget: New York is 6-15-1 ATS in its past 22 September games since 2013, and it has failed to cover its past seven Week 2 games. Read more.
Louis-Jacques' pick: Bills 24, Giants 10
Raanan's pick: Bills 22, Giants 20
FPI prediction: BUF, 50.3% (by an average of 0.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Are the Giants being honest with themselves? ... QB Allen, Bills' offense learning to beat blitz ... Barkley bigger, better in Year 2? Bank on it
Chiefs (1-0) at Raiders (1-0)
4:05 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 69.8 | Spread: KC -7.5 (52.5)
What to watch for: The Raiders would like nothing more than to duplicate their 13-play, 95-yard drive in 8:35 on Monday night against the Broncos to keep Kansas City's offense off the field. They have beaten the Chiefs only twice in their past 12 meetings, but both of those games were in Oakland. As Kansas City coach Andy Reid said, "There's just something about that place that's crazy." -- Paul Gutierrez
Bold prediction: The Chiefs will score at least 35 points against the Raiders for the third consecutive game despite losing wide receiver Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs topped 35 points early in the fourth quarter last week against Jacksonville and still have plenty of weapons, including rookie receiver Mecole Hardman and veteran running back LeSean McCoy. -- Adam Teicher
Stat to know: Oakland running back Josh Jacobs tallied 113 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns in his NFL debut. Only two players since 1970 have gained 100 scrimmage yards and scored twice in each of their first two games: Kareem Hunt in 2017 and Billy Sims in 1980.
What to know for fantasy: Since the beginning of last season, only Sammy Watkins, Zach Ertz and Amari Cooper have multiple games with at least eight catches, 100 receiving yards and multiple receiving scores. See Week 2 rankings.
Betting nugget: Regarding Kansas City, 1-0 teams that are road favorites in Week 2 are 0-9 ATS since 2016 and 6-24 ATS since 2010. Read more.
Cruz: Chiefs have too much firepower for Raiders
Victor Cruz says the Raiders played "inspired football" in Week 1, but the Chiefs have too much firepower for them to contain.
Teicher's pick: Chiefs 37, Raiders 31
Gutierrez's pick: Chiefs 38, Raiders 30
FPI prediction: KC, 70.0% (by an average of 7.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: RB McCoy could see bigger role with Chiefs based on Week 1 ... Williams more than ready for his close-up as Raiders' primary receiver ... 'Clemson days' Watkins makes Chiefs even more dangerous
Saints (1-0) at Rams (1-0)
4:25 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating: 79.6 | Spread: LAR -2.5 (52)
What to watch for: Watch for the Rams to weather an early storm led by Saints quarterback Drew Brees and running back Alvin Kamara, who gained 169 all-purpose yards last week. But how much the Rams will deploy running back Todd Gurley II remains a mystery. If he is let loose, he could have himself a day against a Saints run defense that struggled mightily last week and allowed 180 rushing yards to the Texans. -- Lindsey Thiry
Bold prediction: Greg Zuerlein strikes again with a game-winning field goal in the final minute after his 48-yarder forced overtime in the NFC Championship Game and his 57-yarder sent the Rams to the Super Bowl. This is the toughest game on the Saints' 2019 schedule and it should come down to the wire. -- Mike Triplett
Stat to know: In Week 1, the Saints pressured Deshaun Watson on 44.7% of his dropbacks, New Orleans' third-highest rate in a game over the last three seasons. And in their lone win against the Rams over that time (including the playoffs), the Saints pressured Jared Goff on 33% of his dropbacks. Goff was pressured on only 26% of his dropbacks in the Saints' losses to Los Angeles.
What to know for fantasy: Gurley's streak of 33 straight games with a red zone carry was snapped last week. See Week 2 rankings.
Betting nugget: Since 2014, New Orleans is 21-8 ATS as an underdog. Only New England has a better cover percentage in that span (7-1). Read more.
Triplett's pick: Rams 24, Saints 23
Thiry's pick: Rams 30, Saints 28
FPI prediction: LAR, 59.3% (by an average of 3.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Goff now a partner, not just a pupil of Sean McVay ... No pitch count, just fastballs for RB Kamara in dynamic opener ... Talib: Botched PI call 'not an L.A. problem'
Bears (0-1) at Broncos (0-1)
4:25 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating: 48.0 | Spread: CHI -2.5 (40.5)
What to watch for: It will be the tale of two pass rushes. The Bears sacked Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers five times in the opener. Meanwhile, the Broncos didn't sack Raiders quarterback Derek Carr at all and didn't even register a single hit on him. It was the first time in more than four seasons the Broncos had not registered a quarterback hit in a game. -- Jeff Legwold
Bold prediction: Bears rookie running back David Montgomery will touch the ball 15-plus times. Chicago coach Matt Nagy took tons of grief for not using Montgomery (seven touches) more in Week 1, but the Bears will not repeat that mistake. -- Jeff Dickerson
Stat to know: Denver is 5-1 when Phillip Lindsay has 100-plus scrimmage yards since the running back debuted last season. But it is 1-9 when he does not reach that threshold over that span.
What to know for fantasy: Bears receiver Allen Robinson has three straight games, including the playoffs, with at least six catches and 85 receiving yards. The only receivers who have had a longer such streak since the beginning of last season are Adam Thielen, Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins. See Week 2 rankings.
Betting nugget: Denver has won 13 straight September home games (8-3-2 ATS). Read more.
Dickerson's pick: Bears 20, Broncos 10
Legwold's pick: Broncos 13, Bears 10
FPI prediction: CHI, 50.8% (by an average of 0.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Meet Allen Robinson: The Bears' No. 1 receiver and the anti-diva ... Broncos' offense disjointed at key times in season-opening loss
Eagles (1-0) at Falcons (0-1)
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC
Matchup rating: 66.8 | Spread: PHI -2 (52.5)
What to watch for: What adjustments will the Falcons make in their red zone offense? The Falcons are 2-of-9 in the red zone in their past three games against the Eagles, all losses. Matt Ryan went 4-of-17 for 19 yards with one touchdown and one interception in the red zone during those games and was sacked twice. -- Vaughn McClure
Bold prediction: Tight end Zach Ertz will score two touchdowns. Week 1 was all about the long ball to DeSean Jackson, but Carson Wentz will have to play a more methodical brand of offense against Atlanta's Cover 3 defense, which will give up passes underneath to avoid the big play. That should lead to a good day for Ertz. -- Tim McManus
Stat to know: Against the Eagles since 2016 (including the playoffs), Ryan has posted a Total QBR of 30, averaged 243 passing yards and completed just 55% of his passes. Those numbers are significantly below what they are against all other opponents: Total QBR of 74, 294 passing yards per game and a 69% completion percentage.
What to know for fantasy: The Falcons' Calvin Ridley has caught a touchdown pass in three straight games after catching a total of two touchdown passes in his previous 10 contests. See Week 2 rankings.
Ninkovich, Cruz like Eagles in Atlanta
Victor Cruz says Week 1 showed him just how resilient the Eagles can be and likes their chances to beat the Falcons.
Betting nugget: Since drafting Ryan in 2008, Atlanta is 10-1 straight up and 10-1 ATS in home openers. Ryan is also 11-4 ATS as a home underdog. Read more.
McManus' pick: Eagles 30, Falcons 27
McClure's pick: Eagles 28, Falcons 24
FPI prediction: ATL, 50.1% (by an average of 0.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Wentz 2.0: QB adjustments spark Eagles ... Falcons' O-line plan in disarray after losing Lindstrom ... Eagles provide roadmap to analytics-driven future of NFL
Browns (0-1) at Jets (0-1)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN/ESPN App
Matchup rating: 29.7 | Spread: CLE -6.5 (44)
What to watch for: Without quarterback Sam Darnold (mononucleosis), the Jets will turn to Trevor Siemian to save them from an 0-2 start. The Gregg Williams-coached defense will have to play out of its mind to beat Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham Jr., who accused Williams of teaching his players how to execute dirty hits. Williams, fired by the Browns after last season, will "have a chip on his shoulder," as New York safety Jamal Adams said. -- Rich Cimini
Bold prediction: Much like in last year's Bud Light Fridge Game against the Jets, Mayfield dazzles under the lights with three prime-time touchdown passes, placing Cleveland's hype train back on its track after that disastrous Week 1 performance. -- Jake Trotter
Stat to know: In their Week 1 loss to the Titans, the Browns had at least three wide receivers on the field for 60 of their 63 snaps (95%). That was the team's second-most such snaps in a game over the last 10 seasons (61 snaps versus the Chargers last season). But Mayfield did not throw a touchdown and tossed three interceptions -- all in the fourth quarter -- while targeting Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry.
What to know for fantasy: In Week 1, the Jets were the second-worst team in preventing yards before first contact. Why does that matter? Since the beginning of last season, Browns running back Nick Chubb ranks as the fifth-best back after first contact. See Week 2 rankings.
Betting nugget: Cleveland has not been a road favorite of at least five points since 1995, when Bill Belichick was still its head coach. Read more.
Trotter's pick: Browns 30, Jets 24
Cimini's pick: Browns 24, Jets 14
FPI prediction: NYJ, 58.8% (by an average of 3.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Siemian faces massive challenge in trying to save Jets' season ... Inside Gregg Williams' world: Wolves, lions and payback to Browns ... Browns' offseason of hype comes crashing down. Now what? ... Gase shows who's boss, sends message to WR Anderson
Tagged under
3-time NBA champion Livingston retires at 34
Published in
Basketball
Friday, 13 September 2019 10:16
Guard Shaun Livingston, who won three NBA championships with the Golden State Warriors during his 15 seasons in the league, announced his retirement Friday.
Livingston, who was waived by the Warriors on July 10, made his announcement on Instagram.
The versatile 6-foot-7 Livingston, who turned 34 on Wednesday, came back from a devastating knee injury early in his career to become one of the league's savviest players and a strong locker room presence.
Livingston averaged 15 minutes per game over the past two seasons for the Warriors, with whom he spent five seasons and won titles in 2015, 2017 and 2018.
"Shaun was a huge part of three NBA championship teams with the Warriors, but his overall journey is what is most remarkable," Warriors CEO Joe Lacob said in a statement. "He overcame incredible odds following a devastating injury, wore nine different NBA uniforms during his comeback, had a stint in the D-League and, fittingly, ended up being a major contributor on one of the best teams in NBA history."
Livingston was drafted out of high school by the LA Clippers with the fourth overall pick in 2004.
In a game against Charlotte on Feb. 26, 2007, Livingston suffered a severe knee injury, dislocating his left kneecap and snapping his leg after landing awkwardly. He suffered a torn ACL, PCL and lateral meniscus, sprained his MCL and dislocated his patella.
After missing the 2007-08 season, he resumed playing with the Miami Heat in 2008 before being traded to the Oklahoma City Thunder later that season.
He bounced around with several teams -- Washington, Charlotte, Milwaukee, Cleveland and Brooklyn -- before signing with the Warriors before the 2014 season.
Livingston finished his career having averaged 6.3 points, 2.4 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game.
Tagged under
The state of MLB's terrible teams as the very worst meet
Published in
Baseball
Friday, 13 September 2019 05:40
The Baltimore Orioles and Detroit Tigers start a four-game series tonight as the two worst teams in baseball during a season in which the difference between the top-tier clubs and those on the bottom rung has never been more pronounced.
As the worst of the worst square off, we got to wondering: Is there hope for the have-nots? We take a closer look at the state of the standings, predict the future of a handful of the most non-competitive franchises -- and debate what the disparity means for the game.
The Orioles and Tigers are putting up historic numbers for losses/run differential. Where do they rank among the worst teams you have ever seen?
Jeff Passan: They're not even the worst Orioles and Tigers teams of the past 20 years. Even though the 2019 Orioles might end up with an inferior run differential, the 2018 club lost 115 games. And may we never forget the 2003 Tigers, losers of 119 games and in the worst-team-ever conversation.
David Schoenfield: Look, these Orioles are particularly unwatchable because of all the home runs they've allowed. They broke the single-season record with more than a month left to go in the season. They don't have any particularly compelling young players who you think will develop into a future star. The Tigers are also particularly unwatchable, with an offense that once you adjust for the current environment rates as one of the worst of all time. They also don't have any particularly compelling young players you think will develop into a future star. Remarkably, however, neither is the worst team I've seen. Jeff points out the 2003 Tigers, an amazingly awful team that was outscored by 337 runs. Most amazing of all, they were in the World Series three years later.
Bradford Doolittle: Relatively speaking, even with so many teams buried in rebuilding programs right now, there is more parity than there used to be in baseball. The amateur draft, revenue sharing, free agency -- none of these things used to exist, and so the game is more competitive top-to-bottom than it was in the era before divisional play. There have been 74 teams since 1901 to have posted run differentials that translate to fewer than 57 Pythagorean wins per 162 games. Only 15 of those (20%) have appeared during the 51 years of divisional play, or just under one every three years. This season, both the Tigers and Orioles could get below that 57-win cutoff, though Baltimore still has a chance to eclipse it. I've seen both teams play at least three times in person and you can't really tell the degree of their awfulness by watching. It's more like a situation arises, you see who is coming up to the plate or in from the bullpen, scan the scorecard for better options, and then think, "Good god. This team stinks." There are teams every season that give you that feeling. It's hard to rank such a thing, so I have to default to metrics. The Tigers' pace of 50.9 Pythagorean wins per 162 games would be the second-worst result since 1975, behind Detroit's 2003 season. So that's pretty bad. But the Orioles show up in that group of sub-57-win teams twice -- last year and this year. As a matter of extended putridness, I don't think we've seen anything like the two most recent Baltimore teams in a generation or two.
Eddie Matz: Slightly south of the Washington Generals, and just north of the Bad News Bears.
Let's put you on the spot: Quick, one reason to watch the O's take on the Tigers this weekend that has nothing to do with win-loss records?
Doolittle: Miguel Cabrera. Every hit and home run he gets moves him closer to historical milestones and who better to pad a hitter's numbers than the Orioles' pitching staff?
Matz: Both teams feature orange in their uniforms. Orange is a happy color. (Not that you need more reason beyond happiness, but ... we could call it the Orange Bowl, in which case maybe Capital One would come on as a sponsor, just like they do for the CFB Orange Bowl.)
Passan: Edwin Jackson is pitching Sunday! And even if he has a 9.76 ERA and has been worth -2.3 WAR -- the worst mark in MLB this year -- he's still Edwin Jackson! In his 17th year, pitching for his major league-record 14th team -- Rays, Dodgers, Cubs, Nationals, White Sox, Diamondbacks, Braves, Cardinals, A's, Padres, Orioles, Marlins, Blue Jays and Tigers -- Jackson might be nearing the end of his career. And considering the journey that's been the 2019 season is likewise at its end, who better to watch than the journeyman of journeymen?
Schoenfield: What, the Aaron Brooks-Jordan Zimmermann matchup doesn't get you excited? OK, how about tuning in to see Hanser Alberto's pursuit of the batting title. Who? Yes, the guy who hit .192 in parts of three seasons with the Rangers and was waived four times in the offseason -- by the Rangers, Yankees, Orioles (who later picked him up again) and Giants -- could win a batting title. He enters Thursday hitting .320, 13 points behind Tim Anderson. Thirteen points can evaporate in a matter days with a few 0-for-4s and the other getting hot. So, Hanser Alberto, the potential most unlikely batting champ of all time!
Which of the five worst teams in baseball (Tigers, Orioles, Marlins, Royals, Blue Jays), do you think is the closest to making the playoffs?
Passan: While it's far from foolproof, the most successful down-to-the-studs rebuilds have erected themselves around a core of young position-playing talent. The Tigers don't have that. The Orioles don't have that. The Marlins don't have that. The Royals sort of have that, though Whit Merrifield (30), Jorge Soler (27) and Hunter Dozier (27) aren't spring chickens. That leaves the Blue Jays and this bunch of 25-and-unders: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Lourdes Gurriel, Cavan Biggio, Danny Jansen and Rowdy Tellez. With less than $75 million committed over the next half-decade, the Blue Jays are ripe -- or at least ripest among these five -- to build something special.
Doolittle: I'll go with the Marlins with a slight edge over the Blue Jays. Teams, including the 2003 Marlins, can go on shocking runs if they are able to gather a bunch of productive young arms, and Miami appears to be on the verge of doing that with their rotation. Even in 2019, it's a great foundation from which to make a short-term leap. An astute front office can piece together a league-average offense with plus defense and a steady bullpen with targeted aggression in the free-agent market to augment what's already on the roster. I'm not saying the Marlins should go all-in or anything, but their rotation has the most potential for near-term, postseason-level success than any other position group among these teams.
Matz: The O's and Jays have promising farm systems, but for purposes of this question, that's offset by the fact that they share a sandbox with the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays. The Marlins' pipeline is strong, too, but it's hard to trust the front office given the team's recent history. That leaves the Tigers and Royals, both of whom will benefit by playing in the watered-down AL Central. Detroit has the better farm system, and historically, has been looser with the purse strings. So I guess I'm hitching my wagon to the Tigers.
Schoenfield: The Tigers at least have the potential of a rotation to build around in the near future, with current big leaguers Matthew Boyd, Spencer Turnbull and Daniel Morris, plus prospects Casey Mize and Matt Manning, two of the top 10 pitching prospects in the minors. They do have the advantage of playing in the AL Central. Unfortunately, they also have little in the way of position players and I don't have a lot of faith in the current front office or if Christopher Ilitch will be willing to spend on payroll like dad did. So, umm, I'll lean to the Blue Jays even though they're in a tough division. It looks like they have two young studs to build around and, in theory, they're a big-market team that has the ability to spend big if they want to win.
Which of the five worst teams in baseball (Tigers, Orioles, Marlins, Royals, Blue Jays), do you think is in the worst shape for the future?
Doolittle: Have to go with the Tigers. Nobody's nadir should be this bad, though Astros fans will tell you that it doesn't make any difference. Detroit has drafted a couple of exciting young arms, but it's a drop in the bucket and for a team that has sunk this far, their payroll situation isn't all that great, either. On top of that, I haven't picked up on much to suggest the Tigers' baseball operations are operating on the cutting edge -- taking advantage of their current plight to modernize how they do things. This year should be rock bottom but I couldn't guarantee that it is.
Passan: Much of the Tigers' rebuild looks pitching-dependent, and that's always troublesome. The Marlins are stocked with boom-or-bust position players, and that's a scary proposition. A too-large group of Royals position-playing prospects bombed out this season, and that's scary and troublesome. But the Orioles are in an American League East with a fully functional Death Star Yankees team, a Red Sox cash cow, a Rays crew that's good and filled with major league-caliber prospects, and the aforementioned Blue Jays. So no matter how astute GM Mike Elias and assistant GM Sig Mejdal are, their mountaintop is a mile higher than the other four teams'.
Matz: The Royals have the weakest farm system of the bunch. It's possible that the recent ownership change, combined with a new TV deal, could make them more prominent players in the free-agent market. But in the interest of not overthinking things here, I'll go with K.C.
Schoenfield: The Marlins haven't finished above .500 since 2009, nobody goes to their games, the offense is horrible, the farm system isn't that impressive, they're behind other organizations in analytics (although finally starting to ramp up) and the fetish for toolsy position player prospects who can't hit is a boom-or-bust approach that usually leads to bust.
Let's pretend we just put you in charge of one of MLB's worst teams, what's your first big move as GM?
Matz (Orioles): Move back the fences. Unless and until that happens, it's going to be damn near impossible for the O's to convince A-list free-agent hurlers to set up shop at Camden Yards. I wouldn't move them back too far, for fear of spooking A-list free-agent hitters, but just far enough away so that both pitchers and hitters feel confident in their ability to do their job at the home office. Maybe my first big move, even before moving back the fences, would be to hire a vice president of home run distance -- a bright young analytics mind whose sole responsibility would be to tell me exactly which numbers to paint on the outfield walls.
Doolittle (Tigers): Well, first of all, thanks for giving me Al Avila's job. Your confidence in me is much appreciated. I probably won't have it for long, because I'm in a place where I really want to push against baseball's current trend toward lockstep. Too many teams are doing too many things in similar ways and coming to similar conclusions, which leads to an alarming amount of team-to-team conformity when it comes to the end product on the field. There has to be new inefficiencies being created. Here's what I would try in Detroit, especially since right now, it looks like the future starting rotation has the most potential for high-impact production: I move the fences at Comerica Park back to where they were when the park opened, when you had to use FedEx to get a ball into the outfield seats. I target as many athletic line-drive hitters with good contact rates and walk-to-strikeout ratios as I can find. I try to construct a 1930s-style lineup where most of my position players are upper-crust defenders who battle pitchers, get on base without striking out and are threats when they get on the bags. I reserve my first base and DH slots for good, old-fashioned thumpers, whose exit velocity makes the generous dimensions of my ballpark largely irrelevant. As was the case long ago, the idea is to funnel RBI opportunities to these sluggers, and manufacture runs at the bottom of my lineup. Fans would love it. But if it doesn't work, I'm back to floating hackneyed theories for ESPN.
Schoenfield (Marlins): I hire Joe Maddon as manager after the Cubs fire him. Nothing against Don Mattingly, who has done the best he can with the limited talent on hand. Maddon would be a statement hire: Enough of this nonsense, we're out here to win. It would remind me of when the eternally losing Mariners hired Lou Piniella in 1993 and gave the franchise some instant credibility. All the Marlins would need next is their Ken Griffey Jr., Edgar Martinez, Randy Johnson and Alex Rodriguez.
Passan (Royals): Trade Whit Merrifield. It will hurt, of course, because Merrifield might be the most popular Royals player, and he's quite excellent at baseball. He is also incredibly valuable because of the contract extension he signed over the winter that will pay him $14.5 million for the next three years and includes a 2023 option for $6.5 million. It's the sort of deal that could fetch the Royals an absolute ransom when the free-agent class at second base and outfield, not to mention the utility role, is perilously thin. Here's what seals it: At earliest, the Royals are primed to contend in 2021, and by that time Merrifield will be 32 years old. Cash in now, let another team bear the risk that Merrifield defies the aging curve.
The 2020 MLB draft is loaded at the top, is there any one player you'd be eyeing as the fan of a team in contention for a top pick?
Matz: In the first 40 years of the draft (I'm ignoring the past five years because it's too soon to evaluate), a pitcher was selected first overall on 15 different occasions. Five of those guys either never made it to the majors or compiled a career WAR that was less than zero. Five out of 15! That's one-third, which, if we're talking about the top pick, is way too much volatility for my taste. All of which is to say, all things being equal, I'd go for the non-pitcher. That means passing on Emerson Hancock -- the University of Georgia hurler who sits atop most 2020 mock drafts -- and taking either a masher like ASU first baseman Spencer Torkelson, or an ath-o-lete like high school outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Passan: Hancock is the odds-on favorite and has everything teams want: a projectable body (6-foot-4, 215 pounds), right-now stuff (mid-90s fastball that touches 99 alongside a slider, curveball and changeup) and SEC pedigree (he's coming off a sub-2.00 ERA sophomore year at Georgia). Torkelson is a relatively short (listed at 6-foot-1), right-handed-hitting first baseman, which in the past might have disqualified him from going 1-1. But the bat is special -- maybe, one evaluator said, the best in the draft since Kris Bryant. One dark horse -- and it's very dark, since no high school right-hander ever has gone with the first pick: Mick Abel, already hitting 97 mph and with plenty of room to pack muscle and velocity onto his 6-foot-5, 185-pound frame.
Schoenfield: When in doubt, I would always lean to the position player. Jeff just mentioned Kris Bryant, a reminder that the Astros passed on Bryant with the first pick in 2013 and took Mark Appel. Imagine the Astros with Bryant. OK, maybe we shouldn't. Anyway, if Torkelson is that special -- I'm a little skeptical since he had more strikeouts than walks as a sophomore, which shouldn't be the case with an elite college hitter (as a point of comparison, Andrew Vaughn, just drafted third overall by the White Sox and playing in the same conference, had almost twice as many walks as K's) -- he should be the guy.
Doolittle: Well, if I still have Al Avila's job, part of my formula is having a couple of big-time sluggers, so I would have to look very closely at high school corner player Blaze Jordan, whom Baseball America gave an 80-grade for his raw power. The safer pick would probably be Georgia's Emerson Hancock, who, if he gets through the next NCAA season in one piece, has all the earmarks of a future ace. Add him to a future rotation with Casey Mize, Matt Manning and Tarik Skubal and suddenly the kind of team you're building starts to come into focus. For the Orioles, I'd probably lean toward Hancock as well. Though if you're trying to build up the middle and want a high-level prospect to piggyback on 2019 No. 1 pick Ashley Rutschman, I might go with high school center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong.
We could have as many as five 100-loss teams this season. What do you think is the primary reason we're seeing so many teams that are this bad at one time?
Passan: Tanking saves money, offers executives job security and has proven a viable way to build World Series-winning teams. The question isn't why so many teams are bad at once. It's how many teams have to be bad at the same time before MLB and the players overhaul the system so losing isn't the clearest path to winning.
Doolittle: It's just a glut of teams who dove into the same kind of tear-it-down-to-the-studs rebuild at the same time. Among other things, that thins the market for serviceable stopgap players, the kind of which the Orioles have done a decent job of finding this year (Hanser Alberto, Renato Nunez). There are a lot of Triple-A players getting big league innings and at-bats in 2019.
Matz: According to the Rogers Innovation Curve, 2.5% of people are innovators. In terms of MLB franchises, that's roughly equivalent to one team -- namely, the Astros. The next stage of the curve belongs to early adopters, who comprise 13.5% of the market. That's another four teams that are following in Houston's footsteps (i.e. -- tanking), which is about where we are now. The stage after that is the early majority, which would be another 10 teams (34%). If MLB follows the Rogers model, we'll have a completely binary league in which half the teams are trying and the other half aren't. In fact, you could argue that we're kind of already there (just because you don't lose 100 games doesn't mean you're trying to win). I guess what I'm trying to say is that if imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, Astros GM Jeff Luhnow should be feeling pretty good about himself right about now.
Schoenfield: What Eddie said.
Among the biggest problems baseball is facing right now, where does the issue of non-competitive teams at the bottom of the standings rank?
Passan: Rebuilding is nothing new and not particularly unique to baseball. Because analytics pervaded MLB earlier than the other major sports, though, the game has spent years embracing ruthless efficiency and the process-over-outcome dictate. If there were a clear, demonstrable downside to tanking -- let's even take the pejorative out of this and say, simply, losing -- teams wouldn't do it. But the predictability of fans makes it possible. Because here's the ultimate truth on which every team that decides to tank lands: No matter how lean the years leading up to it, a winning team is a panacea, and nearly every market will let bygones (or 100-loss seasons) be bygones (or 100-loss seasons) and rationalize that the rebuild was causative of future success and not just correlated to it. In other words, it'll all be worth it.
Doolittle: Baseball's biggest problem is the plague of rantings about how baseball has big problems. However, there does need to be some reform regarding how elite draft picks incentivize teams to discount short-term wins. And they need to fix service-time manipulation because it is a cheat to fans of a team when they and everyone else knows that the best 25 players in an organization are not on the big-league roster. How fun would it be for White Sox fans to watch Luis Robert and Nick Madrigal play alongside Eloy Jimenez, Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada this month?
Matz: It's up there, no doubt. But to me, the biggest problem is that baseball no longer has a captive audience. Back in the 1970s and '80s, it wasn't the only game in town, but it wasn't far from it. If you were an athlete, there was a damn good chance baseball was one of the sports you played. These days, there are so many more viable alternatives that, quite frankly, are way more conducive to holding the attention span of a young mind. Basketball. Football. Soccer. Lacrosse. E-sports. And once you lose the kids, you lose everything. We haven't reached the point of no return -- not yet, anyway -- but if MLB wants to compete for mindshare and remain culturally relevant, it'll have to get way more creative than it has gotten thus far.
Schoenfield: You know, it's kind of a damn miracle that the average attendance across the majors is still over 28,000 per game -- and that's with awful teams in markets such as Toronto, Seattle and Detroit that have drawn well at some point in the past. The Blue Jays led the AL in attendance in 2016 and 2017 (and six straight years from 1989 to 1994). The Tigers are at half where they were in 2013. Seattle led back in 2001 and 2002 and will support a winning team. Anyway. The '80s were great? Peak attendance was 26,198 game. The '70s were the best? The peak was 20,748. Don't even bring up the '60s. All that nostalgia about the 1950s? The best figure was 15,000 fans per game in 1959. My point: Baseball is healthy. Admitting you're not trying to win, however, is not the best marketing gimmick.
If you were in charge of baseball, what would you do (if anything) to curb tanking in MLB?
Passan: Anti-tanking measures need to be part of a far broader economic reimagining. But for starters:
Uncap amateur spending to allow all teams -- not just the worst -- to allocate significant capital toward building strong farm systems.
Get rid of draft penalties tied to free agency.
Incentivize teams to roster their best players regardless of service time.
Make teams contribute a larger portion of local revenues to split evenly.
Offer restricted free agency after a player's fourth season (which would benefit the players as well as potentially the large-market teams giving up more of their revenue but getting access to star players in prime seasons).
In a nutshell: Get rid of reasons for teams to stink, pay players what they deserve, let the economic giants flex, and offer the capacity to freely maneuver around that flexing.
Doolittle: I would like to see a system in which rebuilding teams are rewarded for trying, perhaps while lending a bit of extra interest to late-season matchups that aren't relevant to the playoff race. Basically, I want to order the teams out of the race based on how many games they win after they are out of the race. Here's more detail on the proposal.
Schoenfield: At the simplest level, don't reward teams in the draft for being bad. There are several ways you can do this. Institute a draft lottery, like the NBA. Or maybe if you lose a set number of games (say, 95 or more) you drop 10 or 15 spots in the draft. Imagine the excitement of bad teams trying to avoid 95 losses at the end of the season! Maybe draft order is based on a three-year running record, so you really have to be bad for several years to "earn" the top pick. Brad's idea is also interesting. Yes, one draft pick won't turn a franchise around, but there is still that incentive to lose, get a top pick, and draft Kris Bryant or Carlos Correa or Bryce Harper (or, umm, Mickey Moniak or Mark Appel or Tim Beckham).
Matz: I would create a system in which the team that ends up with the top overall draft pick doesn't necessarily have that much of a better chance of getting a great player than the team with the fourth or seventh or ninth pick. A system in which you could have, say, the 25th overall pick and still manage to land a guy like Mike Trout. Oh wait, that already exists. Look, it's not like MLB execs think they're going to change their franchise by getting a top pick. They're smarter than that. It's more about not spending needlessly during a rebuilding period in which ownership knows it can't compete. Teams can afford to do this -- with little to no regard for fan perception and/or attendance figures -- largely because of the crazy cash flow that regional TV contracts create for clubs. I guess what I'm saying is that the only way to stop tanking is to ... stop televising baseball. But that's a horrible idea. So instead I'll go with my plan B: Institute a payroll floor.
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How many bad teams would it take to beat the Astros, Dodgers or Yankees?
Published in
Baseball
Friday, 13 September 2019 05:40
It is, like the story began, the best of times and the worst of times -- an era received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.
There are three major league teams on pace to win 104 or more games -- a mark reached by only 10 teams in the past 40 years -- and another two on pace to win 99.5. (There have never been four 100-win teams in a single season.) There are three teams on pace to lose 104 or more games, another on track to lose 101 and a fifth on pace to lose 99. (There has only once been four 100-loss teams in a single season.) Fully a third of the league could end up at one of the two triple-digit extremes that typically would mark The Best or The Worst team in baseball.
How to put the gap between, say, the Yankees and, say, the Orioles, in context? A simple way is to note that the Yankees are 17-2 when the two clubs play. Or to note that the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers -- the three 104-wins-or-better clubs -- are collectively 41-12 against the Orioles, Tigers, Royals and Marlins, the four 101-losses-or-worse clubs.
A more complicated way is to ask this: How many of these bad teams would it take to make up one of these great teams? Would a playoff superteam of the Royals, Orioles, Tigers and Marlins be able to hang with the super playoff teams in Houston, New York and Los Angeles? In an era of total teardowns on the bleak side of the standings and insatiable depth hoarding on the bright side of them, is there room for any good players on a last-place roster?
To answer this question took 17 tabs in a spreadsheet.
Here were the rules: We built 25-man rosters for the Astros, Yankees, Dodgers and Tigeroyiolins -- on second thought, that's the only time we'll attempt to call them that. Henceforth, they will be the Superteam -- based entirely on 2019 stats: a starter at every position, four bench players covering infield, outfield and catcher, a four-man starting rotation (because only four are needed in the postseason) and an eight-man bullpen. We prorated each player's 2019 WAR for a full, healthy season in the role he is assigned to: 600 plate appearances for starters (except 500 for the catcher), 250 for bench players, 175 innings for starting pitchers and 65 for relievers (except 95 for one designated swingman).* The plan was to see how many bad teams it takes to compete with the Astros, Dodgers and Yankees.
We'll start the bidding at four teams, do I hear four teams?
SUPERTEAM
C Pedro Severino, 1B Garrett Cooper, 2B Jonathan Villar, 3B Hanser Alberto, SS Adalberto Mondesi, LF Trey Mancini, CF Whit Merrifield, RF Hunter Dozier, DH Jorge Soler
DODGERS
C Will Smith, 1B David Freese, 2B Max Muncy, 3B Justin Turner, SS Corey Seager, LF Alex Verdugo, CF Joc Pederson, RF Cody Bellinger, DH A.J. Pollock
ASTROS
C Robinson Chirinos, 1B Yuli Gurriel, 2B Jose Altuve, 3B Alex Bregman, SS Carlos Correa, LF Michael Brantley, CF Jake Marisnick, RF George Springer, DH Yordan Alvarez
YANKEES
C Gary Sanchez, 1B Luke Voit, 2B DJ LeMahieu, 3B Gio Urshela, SS Gleyber Torres, LF Giancarlo Stanton, CF Brett Gardner, RF Aaron Judge, DH Edwin Encarnacion
The best player on any of the Orioles, Royals, Tigers or Marlins, by total WAR, has been Jonathan Villar, acquired in a midseason trade by Baltimore last summer. At the time, the competitive Brewers were trying to upgrade at second base, so they traded their second baseman (Villar) and a couple of prospects for the non-competitive Orioles' second baseman, Jonathan Schoop. Since then, Villar has been the 42nd-best player in baseball, just ahead of Trea Turner, Paul Goldschmidt and Manny Machado. He has been the ninth-best second baseman, while Schoop is 42nd. It was a masterful trade by the Orioles: 21 homers, 33 steals, 3.8 WAR this year.
So, there are good players on the Superteam, of which Villar is undeniably one. Soler has 44 homers, Alberto is hitting .320, Mondesi has 39 steals, Dozier is slugging .550. But the fact that Villar is the best player that the four teams can produce puts the Superteam's uphill climb in perspective: Teams who are committed to losing don't keep MVP candidates around. Villar is not an MVP candidate, the way Cody Bellinger and Alex Bregman are. He is not even above-average by the standards of the other three teams' rosters: There are 21 Dodgers, Astros or Yankees who have produced more WAR than Villar on a per-plate-appearance level this year. Villar is cast here as the best player on any of four major league rosters.
The Superteam might make it up on depth or pitching, but its nine best players simply can't compete with the nine regulars on any of our three historically great teams:
Superteam: 175 homers, .281/.341/.474, 26.4 WAR (scaled to 600 plate appearances per player)
Dodgers: 199 homers, .276/.361/.532, 42.3 WAR
Astros: 210 homers, .293/.372/.544, 46.2 WAR
Yankees: 206 homers, .279/.355/.519, 39.7 WAR
(Note that all of these teams' WARs are exceptionally high, even higher than the Astros, Dodgers and Yankees' lineups have actually produced this year. That's because we're picking only their very best player performances, after the fact, giving the teams full health and awarding nearly all playing time to those nine best players. Real life doesn't go this smoothly.)
But those are just the starters. In theory, depth could benefit the Superteam. There's no Cody Bellinger on a 100-loss team, almost by definition, but there might be a whole lot of Mike Fords.
On the other hand, depth is part of what makes these Dodgers, Astros and Yankees so incredible. They're not building nine-man lineups, but 13-man lineups -- players able to platoon, to move around the field and to not just fill in but very nearly replicate injured starters. Over the course of a full season, when 50 or 60 players might be called upon, the Superteam's depth almost certainly would win out. But for just a 25-man roster, the good teams are nearly as deep:
SUPERTEAM
C Jorge Alfaro, INF Miguel Rojas, OF Anthony Santander. UT Jon Berti
DODGERS
C Russell Martin, INF Enrique Hernandez, OF Matt Beaty, UT Chris Taylor
ASTROS
C Martin Maldonado, INF Abraham Toro, OF Josh Reddick, UT Aledmys Diaz
YANKEES
C Austin Romine, INF Didi Gregorius, OF Cameron Maybin, UT Mike Ford
Superteam: .276/.330/.437, 4.6 WAR (scaled to 250 plate appearances per player)
Dodgers: .254/.331/.434, 4.1 WAR
Astros: .251/.322/.425, 3.9 WAR
Yankees: .260/.318/.473, 3.6 WAR
The Superteam inches up, but barely.
As to starting pitchers:
SUPERTEAM
Matthew Boyd, John Means, Brad Keller, Spencer Turnbull
DODGERS
Clayton Kershaw, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Walker Buehler, Rich Hill
ASTROS
Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Zack Greinke, Wade Miley
YANKEES
James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, Domingo German, J.A. Happ
The Superteam's staff has one All-Star appearance (Means, this year) and zero Cy Young votes. The other three teams' pitchers have won five Cy Youngs and appeared in 31 All-Star Games. But it's not quite as bad as it looks. The Superteam's rotation actually has been better than the Yankees' rotation, despite a 28-48 combined record this year (thanks to terrible offenses behind them and terrible bullpens protecting their leads). Still, it's not great:
Superteam: 4.24 ERA, 4.31 FIP, 12.0 WAR (scaled to 175 innings per pitcher)
Dodgers: 2.84 ERA, 3.51 FIP, 15.6 WAR
Astros: 3.08 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 17.0 WAR
Yankees: 4.45 ERA, 4.62 FIP, 10.5 WAR
Again, in a longer season the Superteam might benefit. It's fair to say the Superteam's eighth- and ninth-best starters -- Daniel Norris and Jakob Junis, maybe? -- are better than Houston's. But Houston isn't going to need eight starters to get through October, and at the top of the staffs it's a huge mismatch.
For bullpens, we chose to limit our options to actual relievers, so unused starting pitchers (for example, Daniel Norris, Jakob Junis) were not generally considered for the Superteam's bullpen. Pitchers such as Ross Stripling and Kenta Maeda, who have both started and relieved this year, and who are likely to be in the Dodgers' actual postseason bullpen, were:
SUPERTEAM
CL Ian Kennedy, RP Mychal Givens, RP Scott Barlow, RP Buck Farmer, RP Shawn Armstrong, RP Jarlin Garcia, RP Jose Cisnero, SWING Sandy Alcantara
DODGERS
CL Kenley Jansen, RP Pedro Baez, RP Yimi Garcia, RP Ross Stripling, RP Dustin May, RP Kenta Maeda, RP Joe Kelly, SWING Julio Urias
ASTROS
CL Roberto Osuna, RP Ryan Pressly, RP Will Harris, RP Joe Smith, RP Hector Rondon, RP Chris Devenski, RP Josh James, SWING Brad Peacock
YANKEES
CL Aroldis Chapman, RP Tommy Kahnle, RP Adam Ottavino, RP Chad Green, RP David Hale, RP Zack Britton, RP Luis Cessa, SWING Jonathan Loaisiga
Superteam: 3.96 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 7.3 WAR (scaled to 65 innings per pitcher)
Dodgers: 3.74 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 7.9 WAR
Astros: 3.24 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 6.9 WAR
Yankees: 3.15 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 8.4 WAR
Add it all up:
Superteam: 50.3 WAR
Dodgers: 69.9 WAR
Astros: 74.0 WAR
Yankees: 62.2 WAR
To repeat something from earlier: 74 WAR is a crazy-high total for the Astros, and it would equate to about a 120-win team in real life. But it assumes almost perfect health and almost perfect decision-making by the Astros, funneling nearly all of their playing time to the players who actually were the best this year.
But the same applies to the Superteam. The ex post facto nature of this exercise benefits them most of all, because it allows us to accurately pick, from the 215 or so mostly anonymous players these four teams will field this year, the 25 who actually had the best years -- in many cases, career years, years unlike any they've ever had or will have again.
Indeed, if we were to use not actual, observed WAR to measure each roster's strength, but projected, future WAR, the Superteam would fall even further behind. In that case, team strength would look something more like this:
Superteam: 30.9 total projected WAR
Dodgers: 54.4 WAR
Astros: 54.3 WAR
Yankees: 54.1 WAR
The Superteam built above, in other words, projects to be somewhere around a .500 team, assuming good health, while the others project to be around 100-win teams. I think we can say, conclusively, that four teams put together still aren't as good as the Astros, the Dodgers or the Yankees. Wild.
Do I hear five teams?
Superteam 2: Superteam + Blue Jays. Add Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Bo Bichette, Danny Jansen, Wilmer Font and Ken Giles. Remove Miguel Rojas, Trey Mancini, Jorge Alfaro, Jose Cisnero and Sandy Alcantara.
Total WAR: 58.1.
Do I hear six teams?
Superteam 3: Superteam 2 + Mariners. Add Kyle Seager, Tom Murphy, Marco Gonzales and Sam Tuivailala. Remove Jon Berti, Danny Jansen, Brad Keller and Jarlin Garcia.
Total WAR: 64.3, good enough to pass this year's Yankees (who, it's worth noting, are without excellent outfielders Aaron Hicks and Mike Tauchman, both key contributors this year but both out for the season, and Luis Severino and Dellin Betances, who have no statistical records to go on this year but could each return for the playoffs).
Do I hear seven teams?
Superteam 4: Superteam 3 + Rockies. Add Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Ryan McMahon, Jon Gray, German Marquez and Scott Oberg. Remove Adalberto Mondesi, Hanser Alberto, Garrett Cooper, Spencer Turnbull, Marco Gonzales and Buck Farmer. Break the rules and move Bo Bichette to second base.
Total WAR: 68.4. Still worse than the Dodgers and the Astros. Do I hear eight teams?
Superteam 5: Superteam 4 + Pirates. Add Josh Bell, Bryan Reynolds, Jacob Stallings and Felipe Vazquez. Remove Ryan McMahon, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Pedro Severino and Shawn Armstrong.
Total WAR: 72.9. Ahead of the Dodgers and somehow still behind the Astros.
Do. I. Hear. Niiiiiiine teams?
Superteam 6: Superteam 5 + White Sox. Add Lucas Giolito, James McCann, Aaron Bummer and Tim Anderson. Remove Matthew Boyd, Jacob Stallings, Scott Barlow and ... Jonathan Villar.
Total WAR: 75.7. Phew.
Is the conclusion too hard to believe? Does it seem credible if you simply look at the rosters?
SUPERTEAM
C Tom Murphy, 1B Josh Bell, 2B Bo Bichette, 3B Nolan Arenado, SS Trevor Story, LF Bryan Reynolds, CF Whit Merrifield, RF Hunter Dozier, DH Jorge Soler, UT Tim Anderson, UT Kyle Seager, UT Anthony Santander, UT James McCann, SP Lucas Giolito, SP John Means, SP Jon Gray, SP German Marquez, RP Felipe Vazquez, RP Ian Kennedy, RP Ken Giles, RP Mychal Givens, RP Sam Tuivailala, RP Aaron Bummer, RP Scott Oberg, RP Wilmer Font
ASTROS
C Robinson Chirinos, 1B Yuli Gurriel, 2B Jose Altuve, 3B Alex Bregman, SS Carlos Correa, LF Michael Brantley, CF Jake Marisnick, RF George Springer, DH Yordan Alvarez, UT Aledmys Diaz, UT Abraham Toro, UT Josh Reddick, UT Martin Maldonado, SP Gerrit Cole, SP Justin Verlander, SP Zack Greinke, SP Wade Miley, RP Ryan Pressly, RP Roberto Osuna, RP Will Harris, RP Joe Smith, RP Hector Rondon, RP Chris Devenski, RP Josh James, RP Brad Peacock
The Astros have the two best starting pitchers, maybe the three best. They have, easily, the best player (in Bregman), and by WAR per plate appearance this year they have the three best (Bregman, Alvarez, Springer). They have five of the top seven, with only Trevor Story and Bo Bichette reaching 5 WAR per 600 plate appearances on the Superteam side. While depth eventually will favor the Superteam, all of the 104-win teams have built extremely deep 25-man rosters. Of our original Superteam 1 players, maybe half would have made the Dodgers' Opening Day roster.
The point is, this is really some kind of era we're living in. You're seeing some of the worst baseball that's ever been played. The Tigers actually don't have a single above-average hitter, in any number of plate appearances above two. And you're seeing some of the best baseball that's ever been played. According to Baseball Prospectus' third-order winning percentages, this year's Astros and Dodgers actually are the two best teams since 1950. It's amazing that these teams have coexisted in the same league, occasionally playing against each other, standing next to each other, and had it even look like baseball at all. It's a baseball miracle.
But that's not the payoff for this era. The payoff is the postseason, when as many as five 100-win teams -- and three historically great ones -- are going to smash into each other, with barely a below-average player in the bunch. Truly, it can't get here fast enough.
* In cases of injury, the player was included on the roster if he seemed likely to return sometime this year or if he would return but for his team being out of contention. He was not included if he definitely is out for the year, like the Marlins' Brian Anderson. Players who have been traded away, like the former Tiger Nick Castellanos, aren't eligible. There was some preference to players with more playing time, but mainly we went with the most productive players on a per-PA basis. And players are allowed to play slightly out of position if, as with Whit Merrifield, they've played at least some significant time at the position to which we wish to assign them. We used Baseball-Reference's WAR for hitters and FanGraphs' WAR for pitchers.
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In the next part of our series in which Stuart Weir talks to London 2017 gold medallists, American Emma Coburn reflects on an unexpected steeplechase victory
What do you remember about the 2017 World Championships in London?
The 2017 World Championships was definitely one of the top moments of my career. I came into that race ranked sixth in the world.
In all the Diamond Leagues that I had competed in earlier in the year I was finishing fifth or sixth by a big margin so I thought, coming into it, that if I could run perfectly I could sneak on to the podium and that in a world championship or Olympic race – without rabbits – there are always more question marks and anything can happen.
I came into that race with the intention to stay with the leaders for the first half of the race or the first 2000m and then just see what happened. It worked out and I felt great.
The combination of my training, the weather, the group of women that I was running with, the pacing, the crowd and the stadium – all of that came together to be a really perfect day.
Now you are introduced as the world champion – has life changed?
No. Being introduced as the world champion is something that will probably stick with me, definitely throughout my running career and maybe even beyond that. That has certainly been a little different.
But I’m still just as eager as I was before and just as hungry to have bigger successes and improve my times and my performances and have consistency in the sport. My approach to racing and training has not changed at all but it is a nice thing to hear, being introduced as the world champion.
Kenya and East Africa normally dominate the steeplechase so it was interesting to see the American success in 2017.
It was cool. Me and Courtney (London silver medallist Frerichs) both had the best races of our lives. I think that in that moment of the race, she was right on my shoulder, and seeing that she was still with me made me feel confident that we could do it and to continue pressing.
We definitely had an energy fighting up there together, which was cool. She and I are friends and we talk outside of track so it was really fun to get to experience that with her. In big championship races, anything is possible and I think Courtney and I proved that in 2017 and hope to continue to prove that in Doha and in competing in 2020 as well.
What is your approach to Doha?
I’m lucky that I have an auto qualifier for Doha from winning in 2017. The beauty of having that auto qualifier is that I can really just focus all my training on Doha.
Doha is going to be hot and it’s going to be a battle but Rio was definitely hot and I did well there, getting the bronze medal. The race is still 3000m and hopefully right around nine minutes so I’m just going to approach it like I do most races and be prepared for anything.
Click here for more interviews in the series.
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Rugby World Cup quiz: Do you remember these unforgettable moments?
Published in
Rugby
Friday, 13 September 2019 07:51
For a tournament that is only 32 years old, the Rugby World Cup has packed in a lot.
But how much do you remember from the previous eight tournaments?
Take our quiz and find out.
The Rugby World Cup starts in Japan on 20 September and you can follow live commentary on every game on BBC Radio 5 Live and BBC Radio 5 Live Sports Extra, with live text commentary on the majority of matches on the BBC Sport website and app.
Find out more about the World Cup:
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Adam Beard: Wales lock has appendix surgery but is set to join World Cup squad
Published in
Rugby
Friday, 13 September 2019 06:18
Adam Beard will link up with Wales' World Cup squad in Japan early next week after having his appendix removed.
Ospreys lock Beard, capped 16 times, was taken to hospital in Wales before the squad's departure on Wednesday.
The Welsh Rugby Union said that he "had his appendix removed uneventfully" and is "recovering well".
Beard, 23, will be assessed on arrival in Japan, with the hope he is available for their opening Pool D game against Georgia in Toyota on 23 September.
Wales are likely to be without Beard's fellow lock Cory Hill for that game as he continues his recovery from a stress fracture in his leg.
Hill was named in Wales' 31-man World Cup squad, with the second pool fixture against Australia on 29 September being his initial target.
Warren Gatland's side then face pool games against Fiji and Uruguay.
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