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Big Picture

Thrill-seekers, "atten-shun!"

Here's a clash of the heavyweights to make the mouth water (assuming the water that's currently on the Hampshire Bowl outfield deigns to recede in good time, of course). A tussle between two of the hardest-hitting batting line-ups in the tournament, not to mention some of the fastest, nastiest bowlers on display in this World Cup (a prospect that, for differing reasons, has probably taken some seasoned observers somewhat by surprise).

All this is due to unfold on one of the best batting surfaces in the country - a venue where England shared 734 runs with Pakistan on their last trip to Southampton in May. And given the fireworks that these two teams laid on in the Caribbean earlier this year, there could be few better settings for what, among other things, could also be seen as an unofficial series decider - with the sides locked at 2-2 after an astonishing one-day leg of England's tour in February, the winner clearly stands to take it all in terms of bragging rights.

The jeopardy of the contest has been heightened by the events of the last few days. Australia's defeat of Pakistan has propelled their curiously ill-balanced but spirited band of brawlers right into the semi-final mix, while the wash-out between India and New Zealand - the two remaining unbeaten teams - is a blow to those around them who would have been anticipating one or other dropping a full two points up at Trent Bridge.

Instead they've both consolidated their statuses by a point, which means that if (IF!) there is a positive result in Southampton, the negative effect on the losers will be exacerbated. Certainly England will have earmarked this contest as an "ought to win", given that their last three fixtures of the group stage are arguably the toughest of the lot, against India, Australia and New Zealand.

Meanwhile West Indies, who tripped up from a commanding position against Australia and then were thwarted by the rain against South Africa, will need something more positive than three points to show for their enterprising start to the campaign, especially with fixtures against India and New Zealand still to come, not to mention their next outing, in Taunton on Monday, coming against the Bangladesh team that pipped them in the tri-series in Ireland last month.

But, as the players themselves will doubtless be reminded, all that matters in this World Cup is the team that's in front of you on the day. And the dramatis personae on both sides makes for a compelling cast-list. The power of Chris Gayle on the one hand, versus the panache of Jason Roy and Jonny Bairstow on the other; the silky speed of Jofra Archer versus the brutalist architecture of the fearsome Oshane Thomas.

The savagery of Andre Russell's six-hitting versus the preposterous boundary-plundering of Jos Buttler; the cultured anchor roles that Shai Hope and Joe Root can provide for their respective sides. And not to mention the battle of the captains, Eoin Morgan and Jason Holder, two of the most impressive leaders of men in the world game, whose tactical nous is matched by the degree to which they've managed to mould teams in their own image.

It could - it should - be some of the most compelling viewing of a World Cup that may be spluttering in the puddles right at this moment, but which has already produced some outstanding match-ups on the days when the heavens have relented. Here's hoping the clouds can give this contest a break. It's one that promises to be unmissable.

Form guide

England WLWWW (last five completed matches, most recent first)
West Indies LWLLW

In the spotlight

It's all about Jofra, who else? There are "no secrets" in Jofra Archer's methods, claimed Floyd Reifer earlier this week, given that he was a regular in West Indies' age-group teams until his omission for the 2014 Under-19 World Cup prompted a move from Barbados to Brighton, and thence to the world stage. But there will be no shortage of spice when one of the bowlers of the tournament to date lines up against the men with whom he is surely sharing a dressing-room in a parallel universe. The liquid pace that he is able to generate from his near effortless run-up has already produced some startling moments in this tournament, not least the savage bouncer which rattled Hashim Amla's grille and left him with concussion. And as he admitted in that South Africa match, the adrenalin of his World Cup debut drove his game, and his pace, to rare heights. You might presume that this contest will get his appetite similarly whetted.

Trevor Bayliss apparently had a wry smile on his face when asked for his opinion of Sheldon Cottrell's victory salutes - though the trouble with the edgiest of quotes is that they get stripped of context as soon as they are laid out on a flat page of words. And sure enough, having claimed that Cottrell's antics "probably piss me off more than anyone else", Bayliss laid the groundwork for some extra jubilant send-offs on Friday - "exactly, more salute to come!! Aaaatttennntiooon!" said Chris Gayle on Instagram in response to an ESPNcricinfo post. And no matter what England's players may privately think of the man himself, there's clearly something about Cottrell's methods that place substance over style. He's scalped five wickets in the tournament to date, including two in four overs on this ground in Monday's washout against South Africa.

Team news

England's hopes of fighting West Indian fire with their own fully-loaded arsenal have taken a slight hit with the news that Mark Wood's dodgy ankle has been playing up again. He is expected to undergo a fitness test on the morning of the game, but with five more group matches to come before the semis, and England reasonably well placed at this early stage of the round-robin, prudence might be the order of the day. Moeen Ali, who missed the Bangladesh match to attend his daughter's birth, is likely to slot back into the twin spin attack, alongside Adil Rashid.

England: (probable) 1 Jason Roy, 2 Jonny Bairstow, 3 Joe Root, 4 Eoin Morgan (capt), 5 Ben Stokes, 6 Jos Buttler (wk), 7 Moeen Ali, 8 Chris Woakes, 9 Adil Rashid, 10 Liam Plunkett, 11 Jofra Archer.

Russell remains the biggest unknown quantity for West Indies on the eve of the contest. He was rested for the South Africa match in a bid to manage his long-term knee problem, and Holder admitted that a decision on whether he plays or not will "boil down to how he wakes up tomorrow morning and feels". Kemar Roach is a suitable pacy understudy, although he lacks the explosive power with the bat. Evin Lewis also missed the last match after being struck on the hand in practice but is expected to be fit to return in place of Darren Bravo.

West Indies: (probable) 1 Chris Gayle, 2 Evin Lewis, Shai Hope (wk), 4 Nicholas Pooran, 5 Shimron Hetmeyer, 6 Jason Holder (capt), 7 Andre Russell, 8 Carlos Brathwaite, 9 Ashley Nurse, 10 Sheldon Cottrell, 11 Oshane Thomas.

Pitch and conditions

The weather in Hampshire has been miserable all week, so it's a matter of sitting tight and hoping for clearish skies come the toss on Friday. Quite how the pitch will have been affected is anyone's guess - it hasn't been seen for days. But given the life that West Indies' quicks extracted in the 7.3 overs available to them against South Africa, it promises to be another bowl-first day.

Strategy punts

  • The tastiest match-up of this contest is surely the resumption of the nascent rivalry between opening batsman and bowler, Gayle and Archer, which has so far been limited to five innings across three T20 campaigns (one BPL and two IPLs). Gayle, true to reputation, hasn't stood on ceremony, cracking 35 runs from 25 balls faced all told. But he has been dismissed by Archer on two occasions for an average of 17.50.

  • By his lofty standards, Gayle's overall record against 140kph-plus bowlers is less than stellar - he has been harassed by Trent Boult in recent match-ups and was given out three times against Mitchell Starc last week before a decision finally stuck. Another factor will be the importance of running between the wickets on one of the largest playing areas in the competition - rarely a Gayle forte, or that of many of his team-mates for that matter, who prefer to let their six-hitting do the running.

  • With no legspinner in West Indies' ranks, Jason Roy and Jonny Bairstow may finally be presented with an all-pace new-ball attack at the top of England's order. Cottrell enjoyed early success against both men in West Indies' win in Barbados in February.

Stats and trivia

  • England may never yet have won the World Cup, but at least they can say they haven't lost to West Indies in the tournament since they lifted the last of their two crowns in 1979.

  • England were the beaten finalists at Lord's in 1979, when West Indies successfully defended their title. Since then, they have won all five of their encounters across four tournaments - two in 1987, and one each in 1992, 2007 and 2011.

  • With 215 runs at 71.67 and a strike-rate of 118.8, Roy has been one of the outstanding performers in this World Cup. His record, however, is a far cry from his role in the 2017 Champions Trophy, when he was dropped after a run of 18 runs in the same number of games.

  • The focus on Friday may be on the quicker bowlers on both teams, but one of the most penetrative in recent England-West Indies games has been Holder - who has dismissed Bairstow, Root, Ben Stokes and Buttler on two occasions each.

Quotes

"It is not frustration because we learnt a huge amount about growing our game out in the West Indies. I think it's important to have days where you are beaten or can't beat a side because you then look even more into areas of improvement. You almost look outwardly and say, 'What were we missing today?'"
Eoin Morgan sees plenty of positives in England's 2-2 draw in the Caribbean earlier this year.

"I don't think it will change, that's just Sheldon. I guess Trevor will just have learn to accept it [smiling]."
Jason Holder on the prospect of a "special salute" for Bayliss from Sheldon Cottrell

Alec Stewart has emerged as a leading candidate to replace Trevor Bayliss as head coach of England.

While some other high-profile candidates - notably Gary Kirsten - appear to have been put off by the decision not to split the roles of Test and limited-overs coaches, Stewart is seen as an ideal character to sustain the hard-working yet relaxed environment around the current England sides. Crucially, as a highly respected former captain of the side, he is also seen as an ideal character to build on the cultural values that have been instilled in recent months.

Appointed as Surrey coach mid-way through a 2013 season in which his troubled team was heading for relegation, Stewart oversaw a revival that resulted in them winning the Championship title in 2018. Now director of cricket at the club, he has given opportunities to an array of home-grown players - including Ollie Pope, Zafar Ansari, Rory Burns and the Curran brothers - all of whom have gone on to represent England.

ESPNcricinfo understands that Stewart will be one of those invited to apply when the process formally begins in the coming weeks. However, it is not absolutely certain he will do so, given that he often refers to his current role at Surrey as "the best job in the world".

Stewart's family are steeped in the history of the club - the pavilion is named in honour of his father, Micky (who also managed England between 1986 and 1992) while his brother Neil is a youth team coach - and at the age of 56, he may also be at the stage of life where touring has lost some of its appeal.

In the end, however, the allure of such a role with the England team may prove hard to resist. Stewart has spoken often of his pride in representing his country and while he did not apply for the director of the men's team role - a position subsequently filled by Ashley Giles - he did hint that he would have considered it had it been offered.

While Chris Silverwood - England's current bowling coach - remains another strong candidate, several competitors appear to have ruled themselves out. Kirsten confirmed to ESPNcricinfo that he "had expressed an interest in coaching one format" - which might be interpreted as a reluctance to coach both - while Stephen Fleming is believed to have held a similar view.

Giles has previously said the ECB are "99.9 percent" certain to appoint one person to replace Bayliss. He has also outlined a plan for three assistants to support that head coach - or director of cricket - providing an opportunity for rest, rotation and career development over the course of an almost unrelenting international schedule. Stewart, Silverwood and, perhaps, Tom Moody - who was also in the mix when Trevor Bayliss was appointed in 2015 - might now be considered frontrunners for the job.

The other leading candidates

Chris Silverwood: Won the County Championship as head coach at Essex and has an excellent reputation as England's current bowling coach. He is a very strong candidate for the top job.

Tom Moody: Vastly experienced in both international cricket (he has been head coach of Sri Lanka) and in England (he was director of cricket at Worcestershire). Moody has subsequently held various management roles in T20 leagues around the world. Indicated he was interested in both the India and England roles the last time they were vacant. It is, however, unclear whether he would give up the portfolio of positions he has now for the demands of such a job and he insists he has had no contact with the ECB at this stage.

Andrew McDonald: Fast developing an excellent reputation as one of the best young coaches in world cricket, McDonald already has trophies in all formats on his CV. He seems happily settled in Australia, though, and perhaps this job comes just a bit early in his career.

Paul Collingwood: The only man to captain England to a global limited-overs trophy. But Collingwood has relatively little coaching experience - he retired as a player less than 12 months ago - and may have to be content with a role as one of the three assistants. This time round, anyway.

Graham Thorpe: England's lead batting coach has an excellent chance of winning one of the three assistant roles, but looks an outsider for the top job at this stage.

Mark Robinson: The England women's coach is perceived, perhaps unfairly, as a little intense, but he has enjoyed great success at international and domestic level. He guided Sussex to two County Championship titles before lifting the Women's World Cup in 2017.

Ottis Gibson: The current South Africa coach has vast experience - he has also coached West Indies - and has had two spells as England's fast bowling coach. He is out of contract in September and thought to be interested in the role.

Mickey Arthur: Another hugely experienced international coach who is sure to be considered if he shows an interest. He may not be seen as the right fit for this role, however, and would have to be considered an outsider.

Jason Gillespie: Having enjoyed great success at Yorkshire, in particular, Gillespie understands the culture of English cricket and has a good reputation for building the sort of working environment England would want. Was heavily touted in 2015 and, if he's interested, he has to be a contender.

Gloucestershire 146 for 3 (Dent 59, Roderick 51*) trail Sussex 351 for 8 dec by 205 runs

Gloucestershire pair Chris Dent and Gareth Roderick both made half-centuries between the showers but their Specsavers County Championship match against Sussex is heading towards a draw.

Only 49 overs in two sessions were possible on the third day at Arundel Castle, with Gloucestershire reaching 146 for 3 in reply to Sussex's 351 for 8. With just a day left a stalemate looks certain, which would at least keep Sussex in the top three promotion places in Division Two.

Umpires Ian Blackwell and Neil Bainton took the players off again at 5pm because of light drizzle and play was abandoned at 5.40pm. So far, 123 overs have been lost to rain during the match.

Dent made 851 runs and was Gloucestershire's leading run scorer in the Championship last season but his 59 on a slow pitch was only his second half-century of the season.

After the early loss of Miles Hammond, Dent shared stands of 60 with James Bracey and Roderick, who was unbeaten on 51 when the rain returned an hour after play had resumed at 4pm following a three-hour delay.

Dent will have been disappointed with his dismissal. On a slow pitch he had survived one escape when he was dropped at third slip by Luke Wells off Ollie Robinson. He had moved onto 59 when he chased a ball from Chris Jordan down the leg side and Sussex wicketkeeper Ben Brown dived to his right to pull off a good catch. Dent faced 141 balls and hit eight fours.

Roderick did the bulk of the scoring in the hour after the resumption and his 88-ball half-century included six boundaries.

Earlier, Sussex had declared on their overnight score of 351 for 8 after rain had wiped out two sessions on the second day. Robinson was a handful with the new ball and was rewarded in his second over when he moved one away from Hammond who edged to third slip where Danny Briggs took a good catch.

Robinson's progress was being monitored by England scout Geoff Arnold, with a view to a possible call-up for England Lions' match against Australia A next month.

He would have been celebrating again in his second spell had Wells held on when Dent was on 46. Instead, David Wiese took the second wicket when Bracey, who had played well for his 21, chased a wide delivery and slapped it into Briggs's hands at point.

Surrey 313 (Foakes 62, Stoneman 61, Smith 56; Patterson 5-81, Coad 3-71) drew with Yorkshire 148 (Morkel 4-43, Clarke 3-35) and 30 for 0

"When an hour is all thou hast, make much of that hour." The phrase might be found on an old sampler reminding folk of the virtues of the Protestant work ethic yet it carried topical power on the final morning of this wet game at Guildford. For against the background clatter of staff gracelessly stacking chairs long before this match ended, Surrey's Morne Morkel took three wickets in 12 balls, thereby establishing a dominance that would reach its climax when Yorkshire were bowled out for 148 just before tea.

Steve Patterson's batsmen thus spent the truncated last session of this suddenly dramatic game ensuring cock-up did not become total calamity. They achieved that goal although it was fitting that the weather came to their aid. Bad light trimmed four overs from the 38 Yorkshire might have faced but the openers, Adam Lyth and Will Fraine, had negotiated their way to 30 without loss when the draw was agreed amid gloom and approaching showers. All the same, a contest which had hitherto been notable mainly for its appalling weather had suddenly acquired much greater interest and that was a fitting reward for the tough souls who had braved both wind and rain on this last day.

"Vigilance is the watchword of the righteous." That saying, too, might once have been embroidered and framed in God-fearing households yet it has carried a powerful admonition for Yorkshire this week, quite regardless of their beliefs. To borrow a more modern idiom, they have not always been at it during this game. They didn't expect to play on the second day and had to be roused from their hotel by coaches who were astonished to see Surrey warming up and groundsmen preparing the pitch. Then on this final morning, with nothing but bonus points seemingly at stake, they batted as if shocked into timidity by the intensity of Ben Foakes' attack.

But any tendency to pile blame on Yorkshire's batsmen for their side's collapse should be balanced by recognition of the excellence of Surrey's bowling. That quality was apparent when Morkel dug in the first ball of the morning with perfect accuracy and a disconcerted Gary Ballance could only fend a catch to Dean Elgar in the gully. We little knew it but the tone of the day had been set. Next over Morkel pitched the ball up and had both Fraine and Jack Leaning caught behind by Foakes, who dived in front of first slip to make the second snare.

After bowling only four overs Morkel was replaced by Jordan Clark who took his first wicket for his new county when Jonny Tattersall's thoroughly irresponsible slash edged the ball high to Rikki Clarke at first slip. Next ball the same combination did for a rather less culpable Dom Bess and one's thoughts went back to the July morning last summer when Clark, then wearing Lancashire's colours, dismissed Joe Root, Kane Williamson and Johnny Bairstow with successive balls. There was no repeat of that famous hat-trick this damp morning in Guildford but the sense of panic among the batting side was similar.

There was a rain break but it did not douse Surrey's fire. Immediately the players returned Tom Kohler-Cadmore was caught down the leg side off Clarke for 14 and made his way off the field rubbing his hip. Three wickets had fallen for no runs and there was really no telling which way this game would go.

As it turned out, an utterly unpredictable morning was followed by the most of predictable of early afternoons in a week which has taught us all to value the high days of summer. The rain set in and prevented any resumption until 2.30pm. But still the pattern of the cricket did not change. Despite Jordan Thompson's late aggression - the debutant included a huge six off Clarke in his 34 - the 55 runs added by his side's last three wickets could not prevent the follow on being enforced. After taking four wickets in the innings, Morkel took an excellent catch over his head at long leg to remove Thompson off Matt Dunn. Surrey's cricketers then beetled off to have tea and prepare to bowl again. Yorkshire had lost all their wickets for 97 runs, the last nine of them in 26 overs.

But the excitement was over. Lyth and Fraine batted with immense care in the final session of this game and spectators were left to wonder what might have happened had not 56.3 overs been lost on this last day. Surrey now have a free week but can be emboldened by their cricket at Guildford. Yorkshire, for their part, were probably grateful they could skedaddle home with five points for the draw. Not so far away, Somerset were the big winners from this rain-wrecked four days. Even in mid-June neutrals may be tantalised by the thought that this may finally be the Wyverns' year.

Kane Richardson would have challenged Justin Langer if the Australia coach had told him to his face that he didn't seem to have the bottle to come back and play for Australia again. Before the start of the World Cup, Langer used Richardson as an example of how far the Australia team had come in a year.

Langer said he remembered a chat with Richardson after the tour of England last year where they lost each of the six internationals. This was after the only T20I following the 5-0 whitewash in the ODI series. Langer, used to winning a lot when he played for Australia and when he coached Perth Scorchers, wasn't quite impressed with the team he had. Richardson had gone for 59 runs in his four overs in that game. On the next tour that Richardson went to - in Zimbabwe - he didn't get a single game, which told him where he stood with Langer.

"I'm thinking about someone like Kane Richardson who I sat with after the T20 game last year and I never thought he'd play cricket for Australia again," Langer said before the start of this World Cup. "I didn't think he had the bottle and we talked about it but how he has come on and you see he is having a red hot dip here. Everything he does, whether it's at training, he's talked about it to the group, he doesn't want to play scared cricket, he wants to be an Australian cricketer, he's a great role model for our players to come from where we were 12 months ago, he's standing tall and he's having a go."

Richardson had to wait nine months for his next appearance for Australia, and he still didn't make it to the original World Cup squad. It was an injury to Jhye Richardson that got him in, and a green track in overcast Taunton that finally got him a World Cup match. He didn't have great List A numbers in between - averaging 43.5 and conceding runs at 6.21 to the over - but it could be his T20 performances that got him back into the mix. He averaged 17.7 and conceded runs at 7.75 an over in the BBL, which is quite acceptable.

Most importantly, though, Richardson gave up worrying about selection and started believing in himself. "Since then - it will sound silly - I have just gone and stopped caring about selection," Richardson said. "You just go back and do your best. And I think that's what happened in the end. I took some wickets. All of a sudden, a few blokes fall down and you are the next one in. Yeah I just kind of gave up all - kind of - thought about it and just played cricket."

Langer didn't actually let Richardson know what he thought of him. "He didn't say it that time," Richardson said. "I would have been pretty upset. Not so much upset, but I would have challenged him, I reckon. Any time some questions your bottle - as he said - I am pretty strong in my competitiveness. Just good to read and know that he thought that and now he thinks … it is quite positive. At the time I was pretty disappointed in my performance, and I knew something had to change."

Langer has seen a completely transformed Richardson on this trip. "It was just about believing in himself," Langer said. "He is a really talented athlete. He has great skills. He is a beautiful athlete. He can field well, catch well, but when you are just holding back a little bit - maybe I won't go for that because I don't want to mess it up - now he is having a dip and a red-hot crack at it."

Richardson himself never believed he was done playing for Australia, but he wouldn't have beaten himself up had he not. "I kind of stopped caring about it," Richardson said. "There is no point worrying about it. I just thought well if I do never end up playing again, then so be it. I will do everything I can to play but it is what it is. All I can do is do my best, and that's it."

CHARLIE EBERSOL WOKE up in his San Francisco apartment just after 6:45 a.m. on April 2, his phone buzzing. He was running on four hours of sleep, as he had for months. In the previous two years, he had gotten married, become a father, founded America's newest professional football league and overseen the hiring of more than 1,000 employees. His assistant scheduled his day in 7½-minute increments. He was 36 years old, with an easy smile under warm eyes, the filmmaker son of Dick Ebersol, one of television's most celebrated and influential executives during his career at NBC, and Susan Saint James, the famed actress and activist. Charlie was always hustling, texting, hanging in powerful circles, flashing the caller ID on his iPhone when someone famous called, playing the part of salesman and brimming with confidence, at times too much.

Ebersol knew the call had to be about his league, the Alliance of American Football. The AAF's newest controlling investor, Carolina Hurricanes owner Tom Dundon, had telegraphed for weeks that the league might not finish its first season. The news was now breaking. Ebersol had worked frantically to talk Dundon out of killing the league while also searching for a new investor. But potential buyers needed more time, maybe weeks, to vet the AAF -- or so they said. Ebersol didn't have weeks. He had days. And as he answered his phone, Ebersol suspected he might be down to hours.

"We're shutting down at 5 p.m. today," a Dundon associate told Ebersol.

"We're announcing we're shutting down?" Ebersol replied.

"No, everyone is fired at 5 p.m. today."

Ebersol called Bill Polian, the Hall of Fame general manager, who had signed on as an AAF co-founder, overseeing football operations. "What am I supposed to tell people?" Polian asked. Ebersol said he would try again to talk Dundon out of it. Trent Richardson called Ebersol next. The former Browns first-round pick now played for the Birmingham Iron and also served as a conduit between Ebersol and over 400 AAF players.

"We just got told that we are all fired," Richardson said.

"I don't know if that's true," Ebersol said. "Hang tight."

Ebersol didn't want to believe it was true. The Alliance, as employees called it, delivered where so many startup football leagues had failed, with good players and big-name coaches, watched by thousands in the stands and millions more on national TV and online. The AAF championship game was less than a month away. But the Alliance was also a mess, mismanaged on almost every level from the outset. Dundon's team calculated the league's total revenue in a year of existence at around $12 million, against estimated annual operating costs exceeding $100 million. Seven hours after the early-morning call from Dundon's office, a three-paragraph letter announced the suspension of league operations. Polian then released his own statement, blaming Dundon for the failed league. Internal tensions that had brewed for months were spilling into public view.

"I'm going to sue!" Dundon told Ebersol. "It was his f---ing fault! I'm going to lay him out!"

Yeah, go say it was Bill Polian's fault, Ebersol thought to himself. See how that plays.

Ebersol made and received phone calls all night. As long as he continued to work, some tiny piece of his dream lived on. Around 2:30 in the morning, his phone went quiet. He sat alone, processing how his football league, so real during games, had disappeared so fast, like it never existed at all.

VINCE MCMAHON AND Dick Ebersol dined in a restaurant in the final scene of a 2016 30 for 30 titled This Was the XFL, the story of the wild, oversexed and overhyped pro wrestling version of pro football. The two longtime friends and proud businessmen, whose joint venture failed spectacularly, lasting only one year in 2001, had been seduced by the enduring allure of spring football, a siren with a long lineage of wrecked dreams and wasted money, from the USFL to the A-11. During one of the film's final moments, Dick Ebersol says to McMahon, "Do you ever have any thoughts about trying again?"

McMahon indeed was having thoughts about trying again. And the film's director, Charlie Ebersol, was thinking about trying for the first time. One day during production, Ebersol had asked Tom Veit, the former vice president and general manager of the XFL's Orlando Rage: If we learn from the XFL's mistakes, could spring football work?

"Spring football will work when people learn not to screw it up," Veit replied.

"Spring football will work when people learn not to screw it up." Tom Veit, former president and GM of the XFL's Orlando Rage

Three years later, the AAF would screw it up, in ways as novel as launching a faulty smartphone app for gambling and as old as failing to secure reliable investing. Leaders also misread the desire of the NFL and its players' association for a true developmental league partnership, and they lacked a lucrative broadcast deal. But interviews with Ebersol, Polian and Dundon -- all of whom spoke on the record only sparingly due to pending litigation -- and more than 40 senior AAF executives, lawyers, consultants, team presidents, coaches and players, as well as other sources with knowledge of the inner workings of the league, reveal a much simpler and familiar story about ambitions, vanities and hubris. The key figures failed to find a common vision, and the result was dysfunction, damaged reputations, bankruptcy and lawsuits.

Ebersol came to believe, as he finished the 30 for 30, that he was uniquely suited to build a spring league that could last. He had a famous last name in the entertainment industry. He had connections to powerful people, from Roger Goodell to Jerry Jones to Oprah Winfrey. And he had smarts and aspirations, underwritten by a feeling that he had nothing to lose. He'd survived a November 2004 crash of a private plane that was carrying him back to school at Notre Dame. It was snowy and icy, and the plane went down soon after takeoff from Montrose Regional Airport in Colorado. Charlie injured his hand, back and right eye but ran back into the plane to pull out his unconscious dad, saving his life. However, his younger brother, Teddy, only 14 years old, died, along with the pilot and flight attendant. Ebersol says now: "Everything that's happened after the plane crash -- as far as I'm concerned, I am on borrowed time."

Ever since, Ebersol's projects had to be "big, worthwhile and scary," he says. By 2017, he felt ready to take his shot -- in an almost impossible venture that had once been his father's. A spring league, Ebersol says, "had always been a hook for me" because the XFL was "the only time in my life I ever saw my dad accused of not succeeding."

Ebersol and Veit worked on a business plan for six months, taking what worked from the XFL -- alternate camera angles, like the Skycam -- and fixing what didn't, such as the sloppy and unsophisticated football. Veit estimated that the AAF would need $300 million to last three years -- an expensive undertaking. Charlie would later tell confidants that the XFL reminded him of something astronaut Neil Armstrong, who was a friend of the Ebersols, once told him: "If you're an inch off on landing, no big deal. If you're an inch off on takeoff, you miss the moon by a million miles." Ebersol believed the XFL had missed takeoff by an inch and that he could get it right.

One day, Charlie ran the rough idea past his dad. You need to talk to two people, Dick replied: John Madden and Bill Polian.

Ebersol was too nervous to cold-call Madden, so he called Polian.

THEIR MEETING WOULD be known inside the Alliance as the Five-Hour Pancake Breakfast. Polian and Ebersol, casual friends, holed up at a Cape Cod diner in late summer of 2017. Polian was 74 at the time, retired from the NFL and working at ESPN as an analyst. In his heart, he was still a football architect. He had long dreamed of starting a minor league that would specialize in developing offensive linemen and quarterbacks. It would be a last gift, as Polian saw it, to the game that had given him so much.

Both Polian and Ebersol wanted a league that would complement the NFL, not compete with it, and serve as a farm system not only for players but also for coaches, especially women and minorities. Ebersol also envisioned an app that would allow fans to gamble in real time -- gaming within the game. He would tout data, versions of which the spring-league dreamers have used for decades, that 150 million fans watch football on weekends, and half of those don't watch sports at all after football ends. There had to be an opportunity to exploit.

"Provided you can get the capital and the television coverage, it's workable." AAF co-founder Bill Polian

Most of all, Ebersol said, their league would be a true alliance among "the fans, the players and the game." The players would be cared for, with good salaries and funds to help them finish college. Everyone would be required to sign a morality clause to avoid scandals. "Provided you can get the capital and the television coverage, it's workable," Polian told Ebersol.

"Well, I think I can get both," Ebersol said.

Polian's deal to be co-founder wouldn't be formalized for months. But Ebersol called his dad after the meeting. "Remember when you said if Bill Polian thought it was a good idea, it's a good idea?" he said.

"You have a business," Dick said.


THE ROOM HAD to be private. Ebersol was stressed, sneaking around Indianapolis with Polian and other AAF personnel and meeting with NFL executives during the combine in March 2018. The AAF was a few weeks away from its official announcement. News of the league had remained mostly under wraps. Ebersol instructed one of his assistants, Chris Baugh, to book a private room for a team dinner.

A few AAF executives rolled their eyes at Ebersol's obsession with secrecy, but he didn't care. He was in a mad race between family friends. McMahon had announced in January 2018 that the XFL would launch again in 2020, and ESPN later reported that McMahon planned to spend $500 million the first three years. Ebersol fashioned himself as a player in Silicon Valley, Hollywood and the NFL, an entrepreneur with access to power brokers, but the fact was, he was already in a huge financial hole, and convincing venture capitalists to write huge checks was proving difficult. The Alliance had secured big-name backers -- MGM and the Founders Fund, among them -- that had invested modest amounts, mostly to give the startup credibility. He did have one vital partnership that the XFL lacked: a broadcast deal with CBS, which was brokered with help from Sandy Montag, CEO of a high-powered sports marketing firm and an adviser to the AAF. The deal was a time-buy, with the AAF paying for the slot and production, a template for partnerships with Turner and the NFL Network that would follow. But the arrangement would allow the AAF at launch to announce a major broadcast partner. That deal, Montag says now, "legitimized the AAF as an entity that could succeed."

A big launch would provide some fundraising momentum, Ebersol hoped. That's why he wanted the dinner to be secret. But he and his party were led to a dining room in the middle of the restaurant that was enclosed by glass walls, as if they were on display. "Are you f---ing kidding me?" Ebersol yelled at Baugh. "I wanted a private room!" The scene was stunning and awkward, leaving everybody on edge the rest of the night.

After they moved to another spot, the conversation turned to ideas for the draft. Polian wanted to run it similar to the USFL draft, with teams holding territorial rights to local players. Speaking from the other end of a long, rectangular table, Ebersol and Rick Neuheisel, the former UCLA and Colorado head coach who had signed on to coach the Arizona Hotshots, had a different idea. They wanted in-demand players to be able to choose their teams.

Polian didn't understand the concept. Neuheisel and Ebersol explained that it was like The Voice.

"What?" Polian said.

"It's the greatest show!" Neuheisel replied.

Neuheisel explained the TV contest in which four celebrity vocal coaches spin around in their red chairs when they hear a singer they want on their team, then the singer chooses the coach, and so ...

"What does this have to do with anything?" Polian said.

Polian is renowned throughout the NFL for viewing the draft as a sacred institution, the annual output of his life's work -- and for his temper. His face started reddening, his body almost vibrating. "Steam started coming out of his ears," Rick Schaeffer, the AAF's senior counsel to the co-founders, says now with a laugh.

Ebersol jumped in. "No, no, there won't be red chairs."

"I can't take this anymore," Polian said.

Neuheisel and Ebersol dropped the conceit. Everyone eventually shared a laugh over it. Two weeks later, on March 20, Ebersol and Polian stood onstage and announced the Alliance of American Football, promising to change not only football but the way fans view and bet on the game, with an app that would be ahead of the television feed, allowing fans to gamble before each play. The first game would be on CBS on Feb. 9, 2019, the week after Super Bowl LIII. The AAF wasn't a fanciful notion anymore. It was real.

All it needed was more money. A lot more.


IN OCTOBER 2018, Ebersol flew to Bristol, Connecticut, to visit Polian, who was juggling ESPN and AAF duties. They met at their usual spot: the DoubleTree hotel, near the network's sprawling headquarters.

"We gotta get this thing moving or we won't make it," Ebersol told Polian.

The league was behind schedule, with oversights at almost every turn. The Orlando Apollos would be forced to practice for 36 days in Georgia, qualifying players for workers' compensation benefits there because the AAF had been unable to secure leaguewide insurance for players. The Salt Lake Stallions would move into their offices only after executives briefly worked out of a McDonald's and the conference room of the team's ticket broker. Team presidents found getting any piece of information, especially on budgets, needlessly difficult. Some stadium leases came together slowly, and stadium authorities exploited the AAF's February start to overcharge by hundreds of thousands of dollars. Even the AAF's fundamental promise -- to feed into the NFL -- was in jeopardy. An AAF executive discovered that the NFL's collective bargaining agreement prohibited players from being under contract with another league. If an AAF player went to the NFL but didn't make the team, he would be free to sign with the XFL. It was a disaster; one of the primary reasons to launch a year before McMahon was to corner the market on marginal NFL players. As a workaround, AAF executives drew up a hodgepodge of four different contracts each player would have to sign.

Meanwhile, the Alliance wasn't acting much like one, with football operations blaming business operations and business blaming football. It all came to a head at the DoubleTree. "You need to give me authority," Polian told Ebersol.

Polian was deeply frustrated -- and wondering whether the AAF was worth his time. His title was co-founder, but he was technically a part-time consultant, with no power to hire or make decisions. For instance, Polian felt the player wellness program -- termed The Gymnasium and led by former Pittsburgh Steelers safety Troy Polamalu -- was well-intentioned but too expensive for a startup. It included individual and couples counseling, and three massages a week for players. Ebersol refused to cut back on his pledge to treat players well.

Polian wanted a bigger budget -- and to spend as he saw fit. At the time, Ebersol displayed little concern over the league's finances. His primary investor was Reggie Fowler, whom Willie Lanier, the Hall of Fame linebacker, had brought to Ebersol shortly after the launch. Fowler, a former USFL linebacker, had built a company, Spiral Inc., which once held more than 100 businesses. The question for Ebersol was whether Fowler could be trusted. He had been the top candidate to buy the Minnesota Vikings in 2005 and held a news conference to announce the purchase. In it, he was forced to apologize for false aspects of his biography sent out by his PR firm, which among other claims said he had majored in business administration at the University of Wyoming rather than social work, and that he had played in the NFL when he hadn't. Later, the NFL questioned Fowler's liquidity when it examined his finances, and he was reduced to a limited owner of the Vikings. He was bought out in 2014, amid media reports that he had lost control of his companies because of tens of millions of dollars in debt.

"As far as deals go, this one was unmatched -- until it wasn't." Charlie Ebersol

Ebersol knew that Fowler, who declined comment for this story through his lawyer, was a risk. He had researched him, asked various sports executives for advice and arranged meetings between Fowler and some AAF board members, lawyers, executives and even his father. In the end, Fowler's offer was too good to pass up: $50 million in equity and a $120 million line of credit, drawn in $15 million increments at the league's discretion. It was a three-year deal -- and perhaps would persuade other major backers who had given Ebersol only contingency commitments. Fowler would own 31 percent of the AAF.

Ebersol's legal team had reviewed Fowler's finances. Altogether, his accounts totaled around $800 million, Ebersol later told confidants. Players, coaches and executives would later criticize Ebersol for partnering with Fowler, but at the time Ebersol didn't think he could afford to be picky; it was his only chance against the XFL. He saw cash in Fowler's accounts -- $53 million in one, $60 million in another -- waiting to be withdrawn. "As far as deals go, this one was unmatched -- until it wasn't," Ebersol says now.

At the DoubleTree, Ebersol promised to divert more of that money to football operations. CBS president Sean McManus had told Ebersol and Polian, "You'll make it or not make it based on the first half-hour." Both men took that advice to heart. If the football didn't sell the league, nothing would.

"Don't worry, you got it," Ebersol said.

"I'll dive in with both feet," Polian said.


POLIAN HAD THE money. Now he had to deliver. He hired a group of staffers who had worked with him in the NFL. The next two months featured a quarterback tryout in the Alamodome in San Antonio and a quarterback draft, along with four other player tryouts, open to anyone willing to pay a $175 fee. The head coaches would earn $500,000 a year. Players would earn $250,000 total over three years, with incentives paid out for community service and marketing. It was good money for a startup league scheduled for three months of work -- too good, Dundon would later conclude. The AAF signed NFL washouts such as Christian Hackenberg, a 2016 second-round pick of the New York Jets, and small-college stars such as Troy University quarterback Brandon Silvers, who beat LSU at Tiger Stadium in 2017 before going undrafted. The quarterbacks all believed they could be the next Kurt Warner or Warren Moon, who had greatness in them and just needed a chance. "I thought it was going to work," Silvers says now, "because of what they were all saying to us -- that we were going to be straight for three years." The head coaches on hand for tryouts were luminaries: Mike Martz of the San Diego Fleet, author of the Greatest Show on Turf; Mike Singletary of the Memphis Express, the Hall of Fame linebacker and former 49ers head coach; Steve Spurrier of the Orlando Apollos, the Ol' Ball Coach.

It was a crazy and exhilarating time for Polian, working all hours. Every week, he would lead a call with the football operations department -- the most enjoyable moments of the job, he says -- where they'd throw around crazy ideas. "It was a fun and great group of people," Polian says now. "We were moving along and we put together the entire club staffing and personnel process within about three months, which is amazing." And stressful. At one point during a meeting at CBS, McManus asked Polian: "Can you assure me that when we turn on the TV set we'll see a game that looks like the NFL?"

"Yes," Polian replied.


"WE HAVE SEVERE financial problems," Ebersol told Polian. "We may not make payroll."

It was shortly before Christmas. Fowler's $15 million chunks weren't coming in as expected. The cash would arrive in smaller amounts, at weird times, from various banks. Ebersol had been struggling to balance public optimism and private financial realities. He didn't want staffers to worry, and so he would reassure anyone who asked about the league's outlook, sometimes sounding like he was also trying to convince himself. Veit would remind Ebersol that all minor leagues have cash flow issues. But the Alliance was now $13 million short to start training camp. Ebersol was distraught about having to lay off people during Christmas week.

Polian struggled to retain optimism as well. Training camp in San Antonio was due to start in two weeks, and AAF corporate wouldn't allow teams to book travel. Now Polian knew why.

"Look, Charlie," Polian said. "There's no dishonor in saying that we can't make this work. We gave it an honest shot."

Ebersol wanted to have two last-chance meetings. The first was held with Fowler in late December in the downtown San Francisco offices of Morgan Lewis, the AAF's law firm. Enraged and on the verge of tears, Ebersol lit into Fowler. "This is not f---ing acceptable!" he said. "If you don't start properly funding us, I will shut the company down! I don't f---ing miss payroll!"

"Calm down, calm down," Fowler said.

Ebersol was unhinged, and it embarrassed AAF executives. Few would have blamed Fowler if he had pulled the plug. But at the time, neither they nor Ebersol knew that months earlier, on Oct. 23 and Nov. 16, the U.S. government had frozen at least four of Fowler's accounts as part of a forthcoming fraud indictment. The Department of Justice in April 2019 would arrest Fowler and allege that from February to October 2018, Fowler and his Israeli business partner, Ravid Yosef, operated "an unlicensed money transmitting business" by moving hundreds of millions of dollars through banks into cryptocurrency endeavors under the guise of a real estate investment. (Fowler would plead not guilty. Yosef, who the indictment said was at large, has yet to enter a plea.)

Ebersol's outburst served its purpose. Fowler promised to live up to his agreement, offering to do so out of his personal account. But at one point, Fowler asked Ebersol, "What's the Plan B?"

There was no Plan B, Ebersol said. "I'm going to shut it down."

But there was a Plan B, at least in theory: It was McMahon. Soon after the Fowler meeting, Charlie and Dick visited McMahon in Connecticut. Charlie Ebersol had once tried to partner with McMahon, before the AAF had officially launched, pitching himself at the helm of an XFL sequel. McMahon declined and instead hired Oliver Luck, the former NCAA executive and father of the Indianapolis Colts' star quarterback. Now the Ebersols once again asked to join forces with the XFL. Charlie argued that he'd already spent millions on staff and infrastructure. Why not merge?

McMahon loved the Ebersols, but business was business. He wanted the new XFL to live or die on his terms, and he was more than content to let the AAF live or die on its terms.

Ebersol returned to San Francisco for the holidays, ready to close the league on Dec. 26. But at 8 p.m. on Christmas, a deposit of $13 million from Fowler arrived in the AAF account. "It's a Christmas miracle!" Ebersol told his wife.

At 4:36 p.m. on Dec. 26, Annie Gerhart, Ebersol's assistant, emailed all league and team executives: "I am happy to report that everything with travel is squared away and we are ready to start booking training camp flights!"


THE FOOTBALL STAFF had pulled off a miracle of its own to launch training camp on Jan. 4. The AAF had hundreds of signed players, eight complete coaching staffs, video departments, medical staffs, PR staffs and social media teams. Camp was tight and organized and felt like professional football, even if it was not without drama. On the night before camp started, Ebersol insisted on addressing all players, offending coaches who viewed that time as sacrosanct for team bonding. He announced a partnership with the NFL Network and then walked over to an aide, who told him that the deal wasn't yet complete. He returned to the front and asked everyone to keep quiet until the deal was official. It was classic Ebersol: sloppy enough to reinforce the view held by many AAF executives that he wasn't as savvy as he projected, yet assured enough to make everyone feel that they were buying into something truly big.

Fowler visited camp for a few days, meeting with coaches and executives. He was quiet and wouldn't go into any detail when asked about his businesses. But most found him friendly and eager to help. He seemed to enjoy his role as financier. The Stallions still didn't have football offices, so Fowler offered to purchase shipping containers that could be outfitted with cubicles. Fowler flew to Salt Lake City and scouted available land. Fewer containers arrived than Fowler had promised, but the team made do. "Reggie was very helpful and committed," Polian says now.

The night before camp ended, Ebersol and Polian gave a toast. Ebersol was usually animated before a group, but this time he was slow and deliberate. He used the word "grateful" 12 times -- and it was no accident. In one of his first discussions after the crash, Dick Ebersol told his wife, "We have to be thankful that we had 14 wonderful years" with Teddy. The idea rewired Charlie's thinking. He decided that to be grateful for the blessings in his life, he had to be grateful for the pain. He didn't mention the crash during his toast, but it was on his mind as he thanked the staff, particularly Polian, for going along with him on "an act of insanity." Some executives thought Ebersol was strangely subdued, but he was thinking about his brother and trying not to cry.

A little over a week later, the two inaugural AAF games kicked off, the Orlando Apollos versus the Atlanta Legends, and the San Antonio Commanders against the San Diego Fleet. Ebersol was in the Alamodome, wearing matching sneakers with his infant daughter. At the Olympics, Dick Ebersol always had gifted special souvenir pins to NBC's behind-the-scenes staffers. Charlie did the same, passing out football-shaped AAF pins. Against all odds, Ebersol had done it: He had produced an actual spring football game, on national television and before 27,000 fans, with a fraction of the funding of the XFL. A section of the crowd chanted his name. A brutal hit by Commanders linebacker Shaan Washington on Fleet quarterback Mike Bercovici went viral. The game beat a Rockets-Thunder NBA nail-biter in head-to-head overnight ratings, validating not only the AAF but the business of spring football. A text message to Ebersol from a friend said: "You landed on the moon."

Within hours, the Alliance would miss part of its first payroll.


A FEW DAYS after the AAF's opening weekend, Tom Dundon discussed the league over breakfast with Erik Anderson, founder and CEO of the WestRiver Group investment firm. Anderson knew that Ebersol was desperate; Charlie had called him that morning about a $100 million loan. Ebersol publicly insisted that the missed paychecks temporarily affected only 20 percent of players, owing mostly to a new payroll provider. But cash flow was an issue. All of the training camp bills had come due. After paying out around $28 million total, Fowler was late again. Ebersol couldn't rely on him anymore. The league was about to go under. Anderson told Dundon that Ebersol needed a new top investor.

Dundon was intrigued by the AAF. He was 47 years old, with salt-and-pepper scruff. He had made billions running his own private investment firm, much of it rooted in subprime auto lending, but he didn't carry himself like a rich man. He seemed most comfortable in Carolina Hurricanes sweatpants. He loved football and was well-regarded in NFL circles; the league had vetted him in 2018, when the Carolina Panthers were for sale. Dundon had watched the AAF's opening weekend and liked its potential -- and the potential of spring football. Anderson connected Dundon and Ebersol, and a deal came together over the phone. Dundon told Ebersol that he was in for $250 million -- the amount both men believed it would take to get the league to profitability. But over the next hour, Dundon started digging into the business and was livid at what he found: The financial prospectus the AAF provided him was outdated and inaccurate.

"I'm out," Dundon told Ebersol.

Then Ebersol talked Dundon back in, explaining that the prospectus hadn't been updated and selling his vision for the AAF as a transformative league with transformative tech. Dundon called a few media and sports executives for advice. As always, the promise and potential of a spring football league captured their imagination. The heavy lifting of getting the league off the ground was already complete. Dundon concluded that if he could partner with the NFL or secure a remunerative broadcast deal, he might be able to flip the AAF, maybe for up to a billion dollars. Dundon had hours to decide. He decided to keep the AAF open on a weekly basis -- even if he would publicly play up the $250 million to the media, vowing that it was good for the long haul. He figured that was best for business. "I'm buying the option on it," he told a confidant. The four-page deal came together in 26 hours.

The marriage between Dundon and Ebersol was off from the beginning. Days after the transaction, they hosted a painfully awkward video chat for AAF employees, which began with Ebersol alone and Dundon nudging his way onto the screen -- in a Hurricanes hat. When Ebersol introduced him as a "dream partner," Dundon's face didn't move. He was already having buyer's remorse. The AAF's gambling app barely functioned. The players' college fund had never been funded in earnest. Vendors from training camp hadn't been paid. Security agents were traveling with teams to protect players nobody knew. Dundon had agreed as part of the deal that Polian and Ebersol would continue to run the league, but he removed both Charlie and Dick Ebersol from the board and sidelined most of the business staff. He liked Charlie, and admired his work ethic and charm, but felt that he would exaggerate the league's outlook. The first time he met Polian, Dundon complimented him: "The only thing that's working is football."

Dundon and his staff held a meeting in Dallas shortly after he acquired the league, with the AAF principals in attendance. Dundon immediately ordered the league's expenses of about $100 million to be cut in half. Polian initially balked, which irritated Dundon. He liked Polian but felt that he spent money as if he were in the NFL. Dundon later confided to Ebersol that he planned to move on from Polian if the league made it to a second year.

Dundon then raised the XFL. "Vince is a really strong adversary," he said. "I don't know if we can compete with them."

We have better players, the AAF executives argued.

Dundon didn't see players as a competitive advantage. He thought that the AAF had overpaid for coaches and players. "If we can operate this league at $50 million, we'll have a league and a business," Dundon said.

"I recognize that, but we can't," Polian said. "We'd have to cut the players' salary."

"Yeah, but if we don't, we don't have a business," Dundon said.

The AAF executives raised the idea of paying a premium to attract better quarterbacks, which Dundon immediately dismissed. "Vince will just pay more," he said.

Dundon later decided that he was in the AAF business up to $70 million, at $15 million a week. He instructed Ebersol to find new capital -- but also tied Ebersol's hands by refusing new investors until he had a grasp of the business, out of legal concerns. "Bill and Charlie started a league with no money," Dundon later told a confidant.

After the Dallas meeting, Dundon, Polian and Ebersol flew to New York to meet with McManus, the CBS executive. Dundon told McManus he wanted CBS to chip in, as in most broadcast deals. McManus was clear: He'd give the league favorable broadcast windows, but the revenue didn't support anything beyond a time-buy. Maybe next year we can discuss sharing production costs, McManus said.

Dundon left the meeting early to catch a flight, then called Ebersol and instructed him to leverage the threat of killing the league with McManus. Ebersol was embarrassed. McManus later told a confidant that he felt sorry for Charlie, who he believed negotiated in good faith. But he wouldn't move. "A deal's a deal," McManus told Ebersol.

Dundon had one option left: to officially partner with the NFL. It would require both the league and the players' association -- two organizations that usually don't move quickly unless profits are to be made -- to insert unprecedented language into the CBA. It was a Hail Mary. Dundon was now deep in the morass common to most who've been smitten by spring football. "I did zero due diligence," he told a confidant. "It was really stupid."

"I did zero due diligence. It was really stupid." Tom Dundon

A CONFERENCE CALL between union and AAF executives was set up for the afternoon of Monday, April 1. For weeks, Dundon and DeMaurice Smith, the NFLPA's executive director, had spoken daily. Smith was skeptical of both the chances of achieving a partnership and of the partnership itself. He had fought hard during the last CBA negotiations for players to have more time off, not less, and the AAF would play during the NFL offseason. Smith also worried that NFL teams could tacitly force players into the AAF by threatening their roster spot. "It was against our health and safety principles," Smith says now. "It placed those players at the mercy of NFL GMs who could have pressured those players to play in the AAF and risk their livelihood."

Getting the union on board was only half the battle for the AAF. The NFL was as much of a long shot, due to both the private opinion held by some executives that it didn't need a developmental league -- college football already provides that -- and the long-standing effort to not violate antitrust law.

On the call, Polian was diplomatic. He suggested that Smith decide which NFL players could participate in the AAF. The idea went nowhere. Polian then offered his assurance that any NFL players in the AAF wouldn't be forced into the league or seriously injured.

"You have my word," Polian said.

Dundon found that statement absurd. It was football -- how could the AAF promise nobody would get hurt? He felt that AAF executives weren't leveling with the union, so he took it upon himself. Citing the likelihood of injuries, he said, "I understand why you're not going to do the deal."

Polian and Ebersol couldn't understand the strategy. Was Dundon sabotaging negotiations? The call ended with the union executives promising to consider a deal, nothing more.

Dundon, though, knew the deal was dead. He had concluded as much from his conversations with Smith. Dundon and Polian, Smith says now, "realized that they couldn't address and resolve" the union's safety issues. The conference call itself was a courtesy. Dundon was ready to move on from the AAF, satisfied that without his investment, the league would have died earlier and players wouldn't have gotten a second chance at the NFL. The business was a mess. Litigation loomed: A venture capitalist, Robert Vanech, had sued the AAF and Ebersol, claiming that Ebersol stole his idea for the league, which Ebersol vehemently denied. Dundon told Ebersol that he'd sell the league "for zero dollars," but Ebersol still couldn't find a major backer. Dundon made one last run at the networks -- including ESPN, which along with Fox would later announce a partnership with the XFL -- for a better deal but couldn't get any takers. Spring football might be worth a billion dollars one day, but not the AAF. "It was a business problem, not a money problem," Dundon says now.

On the phone after the union call, Polian swallowed his frustrations toward his boss, telling him that the meeting "couldn't have gone better if we'd scripted it. We're better than 50 percent there." Dundon indulged Polian's optimism for a few minutes, knowing that if not for a miracle the league would suspend operations the next day. He then said that he was getting another call.

"I'll call you back," Dundon said.

It was the last time they spoke.


ON A FRIDAY in late April, Ebersol sat in a downtown San Francisco members-only social club, trying to determine if he'd missed by inches or a million miles. His face in exile looked different than it did as the face of the AAF, a clean shave around a full mustache replacing his usual scruff. He had spent a lot of time alone after the league folded, tending to his garden and writing thank-you notes to many AAF folks. Furious AAF employees were left with little public explanation or guidance -- and felt misled. A slew of former staffers and players filed three lawsuits claiming that the league broke the law by failing to provide advance notice before shutting down. They named Dundon, Ebersol and Polian, among others, as defendants, ensuring that litigation would be the AAF's lasting legacy. It was all too raw for Ebersol to process.

After months of nonstop struggle to make the AAF go, none of the principals came away undamaged, their aspirations undone by the collective fantasy of spring football. In the weeks after the league died, Polian worked the phones from his North Carolina home, declining most interviews and trying to find NFL jobs for football operations staffers. Dundon tried to avoid the cameras but couldn't because the Hurricanes reached the NHL's Eastern Conference finals. Whenever he gave an interview, reporters asked about the AAF. He said little, letting Chapter 7 bankruptcy paperwork speak for him. Legendary Field Exhibitions, the AAF's parent company, listed the league's $11 million in assets against $48 million in liabilities. Its books and records were framed as a "best effort" in bankruptcy documents -- a final repudiation of any notion that the league's finances were ever buttoned up. All of the AAF football equipment, from helmets to shoulder pads to wrapping tape, was stored in a warehouse in San Antonio, waiting for auction.

Ebersol was eager to hustle back into the workforce, but he didn't know what he would do. He suspected his reputation was shot. Though he estimated that he had lost seven figures of his own money in the AAF, he was paid $14,000 just before the league went bankrupt. It was a horrible look to the many employees who trusted him, who moved across the country, often leaving good jobs, to work for a league with a supposed three-year runway. The AAF drew comparisons to the disastrous Fyre Festival. That angered Ebersol, but it didn't matter. He had failed in an endeavor many had failed in, and yet something about the idea remains so singular that other spring leagues aren't dissuaded. The XFL continues to plan for a 2020 launch, and two others are in the works as well: the Freedom Football League, founded by Ricky Williams and Terrell Owens, and the Pac Pro League, co-founded by Don Yee, best known as Tom Brady's agent. Like the AAF, all promise to develop NFL players and serve an untapped football audience, despite the odds.

Over tea in a private room near the bar of the social club, Ebersol was asked what he would have done differently. He started to answer -- and then stopped. Nothing, he insisted. He refused to think that way. He had promised to be grateful for the good and the bad in his life, and if he was to live up to that promise, he couldn't look back. "Would I do it all over again, knowing exactly how it was going to end?" he said. "Yes. A thousand times over. But that's true of the plane crash too. To continue forward I have to find gratitude in the pain."

In late May, he read a newspaper report that someone had placed a deposit to purchase the old AAF equipment for $375,000.

It was Alpha Entertainment, parent company of the XFL.

Kemba: 'Would take less' to stay with Hornets

Published in Basketball
Thursday, 13 June 2019 10:37

CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- Three-time All-Star point guard Kemba Walker says he'd be willing to work with the Hornets and would take less than the supermax $221 million contract he's eligible to receive to re-sign with Charlotte.

The Hornets can offer Walker, their all-time leading scorer, a five-year contract worth up to that amount. Other NBA teams can offer only a four-year deal worth $140 million.

"Yeah, why not? I would take less, for sure," Walker said Thursday.

Walker says the Hornets remain his "first priority," but he plans to meet with other interested teams before making a decision on his future.

NBA free agency begins June 30.

Asked if he's confident he'll be back with Charlotte, Walker said: "I have no clue. ... This is where I want to be and if it doesn't work out, it just doesn't. I'm prepared."

The Warriors' golden Oracle era comes to an end

Published in Basketball
Thursday, 13 June 2019 10:09

On Jan. 17, 2017, the Golden State Warriors held a rather elaborate ceremony at what was then just a big pile of dirt in San Francisco. The ownership group, which had invested approximately $1.5 billion to turn this pile of dirt into a game-changing stadium when Chase Center opens later this year, sat in the front row.

Head coach Steve Kerr and newly acquired superstar Kevin Durant were the headliners. They'd only known each other for a few months, but their timing was already on point.

"Night after night, the feel we get from the crowd -- can you talk about what it feels like to be a Warrior?" Kerr asked Durant.

"It's different when you're on the team and when you're an opposing player. I can tell you that," Durant said. "When you step out there and put on that jersey, just that support -- no matter if we're playing Cleveland or we're playing the worst team in the league -- they're still going to support and be there to cheer for us. To go out there and play in front of them is amazing. It makes us want to play harder as well. We love the support and every time we go out there we try to play as hard as we can."

Kerr paused, then asked, "How's the coaching been so far this year?"

Without missing a beat, Durant said, "It's been all right."

"We'll try to step it up a little bit," Kerr deadpanned. "Maybe get you the ball more."

Durant smiled as the crowd of San Francisco politicians, Warriors season-ticket holders and curious onlookers yucked it up.

"Yeah, please do," Durant said.

Then the guests of honor put on hard hats, grabbed shovels and posed for photos.

It was a beautiful, uncomplicated January day. The Warriors' future seemed so bright back then. And it was. Durant would go on to lead Golden State to back-to-back titles, and players would speak openly about taking less money to keep this group together once everyone hit free agency. The runway seemed clear for this group to win and keep winning once they moved from Oracle Arena in Oakland into this new state-of-the art building across San Francisco Bay.

But all of that breezy optimism has faded now that the team has arrived at its final game in Oakland on Thursday in Game 6 of the NBA Finals against the Toronto Raptors.

Durant has been lost for the remainder of the series -- and probably most of next season -- with a ruptured Achilles tendon. His impending free agency had been hanging over the franchise like soupy San Francisco fog all season. And this injury has essentially shut down the airport completely, as it's impossible to pilot through this cloud cover of uncertainty.

Will Durant still decide to opt out of the final year of his contract and become a free agent? Several league sources told ESPN that they expect Durant to follow through and hit free agency, despite the long recovery time ahead of him. And if he does, will the Warriors follow through and offer him the five-year maximum contract extension worth $221 million? Will other teams offer their maximum four-year, $164 million contract? Several league sources told ESPN that they expect the Warriors and Durant's other suitors to offer the maximum allowable contract, despite the serious injury.

Which means Durant's free agency will have the same leaguewide impact it did when he chose the Warriors in 2016 and elevated a great team to a dynastic team.

The Warriors' dynasty will either roll over into the new building, or its window could start closing, just as Oracle Arena's doors are shutting for good on NBA games.

All season, there has been a nostalgia about the team packing up and moving from its East Bay home of the past 47 years. The franchise has honored great players from its past and each of its eras, including when the franchise didn't win much of significance, but always had passionate, gritty fans who connected deeply with the team.

After the Warriors dropped Games 3 and 4 of the Finals at home to fall behind 3-1 last week, stunned fans lingered and took selfies with ushers and security guards as everyone tried to come to grips with the realization that this all might be over a lot sooner than anyone expected.

This golden era for the franchise, which began when Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson grew into the Splash Brothers eight years ago, might be dimming a lot sooner than anyone anticipated. The joyful team culture had been fading for some time now -- a casualty of the inexorable media cycle, clashing of egos and generalized organizational fatigue.

But while things haven't felt fresh or new in a while, Oakland had a way of keeping everyone grounded. The team still practices and has its offices at a Marriott hotel in the Oakland Convention Center. The elevator buttons leading to the facility have been out for years. Just last week, when Durant was coming in to get extra work against some of the team's G Leaguers, you'd see some of those players lingering outside the hotel's business center and restaurant on the second floor, mixing in with guests and convention-goers. Players and coaches often walk across the street to restaurants in the area like Café Gabriela or Ratto's, eating lunch or taking coffee alongside fans and regular folks.

Next season, there will be no such mixing. Everything will be state of the art. Even the art out front of the arena will be world-class, something tourists will visit in the same breath as the Golden Gate Bridge.

The Warriors have taken great care to translate the elements of their old home to their new one, from the design of the stadium, which will have the same low roof and steep concrete stands that help Oracle Arena roar so loudly, to maintaining their presence in Oakland by keeping offices of the team's foundation there.

But it won't be the same. Because the whole point of moving was to evolve and grow. To do what Silicon Valley companies have always done: Start small in a funky garage, build a killer product and scale up to bigger offices.

The challenge is to hold on to the right things as you grow. To know what is essential, and what is simply nostalgia.

With their backs against the wall in a must-win NBA Finals Game 5 in Toronto, the Golden State Warriors leaned on an old friend to extend the series: historically great 3-point shooting.

The Dubs are the defining team of our time in part because they've turned the basketball court inside-out, winning games from the perimeter as opposed to the interior. Check out these bonkers numbers from Monday's win:

  • Golden State made 20 3s while shooting 47% from beyond the arc.

  • The Warriors made just 18 2s while shooting 45% inside the arc.

  • It was just the third time that a team won a Finals game with more made 3s than 2s, and just the fourth time that a team won a Finals game despite making 18 or fewer 2-point buckets.

The Dubs caught fire from downtown when they needed to and became only the second team in Finals history to sink 20 or more 3s in a game. For context, the 2004 Detroit Pistons had 21 made 3s in their entire five-game series victory over the Los Angeles Lakers in the 2004 Finals.

Those days are long gone, thanks in part to a pair of world-class jump-shooters who are seeking their third consecutive world championship.

Both Splash Brothers come into Thursday night's Game 6 (9 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN App) with 20 made 3s this series, but Klay Thompson has gotten there on 35 attempts, compared with 56 for Stephen Curry. Thompson has been a lifesaver in the four games he has played in this series -- he missed Game 3 with a hamstring strain -- hitting a whopping 57% of his 3s. The rest of the Warriors have combined to make just 33%.

Of course, Thompson is a great shooter -- a quick look at his shot chart from this season proves that -- but in the course of this five-year run, Thompson has shown himself to be a monster in the biggest postseason games.

Thompson's big-game résumé is as good as anybody else's in the league, and his timely shooting is once again proving to be best in class in these Finals. Through five games in this series, six players have tried at least 50 shots. All but one of them has an effective field goal percentage between 46.0 and 51.4. Thompson has an eFG% of 65.8.

It gets crazier.

Per Second Spectrum, of the 13 players who have tried at least 20 shots in these Finals, Thompson is taking the toughest looks. Based on shot location, defender distance and other situational factors, Second Spectrum estimates the eFG% of every shot in every game. Their model suggests that Thompson should have the lowest eFG% of any volume shooter in this series. Instead, his is the highest by a mile -- his actual eFG% is light-years ahead of everyone else's.

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In other words, Thompson's shot-making is both the most efficient and the most impressive so far in this series.

Perhaps the best example of this came in Game 5, when he turned a post-up play into one of the strangest off-the-dribble 3s of the postseason.

Simply put, Thompson is a man on fire. Even if he goes 0-for-15 from 3-point range in Game 6, he'd still be making 40% of his 3s in this series. That's nuts, especially considering he has been banged up.

Is it sustainable? Maybe not at this level. Thompson's average playoff eFG% since this dynastic run started in 2015 is 53.9%, about 5 percentage points better than expected given the shot quality. But the Warriors only need Thompson to keep firing at this rate two more times. They simply can't afford a bad game from either Steph or Klay to pull this off.

A closer look at that table above reveals that the four least-efficient scorers in this series are all Warriors, while seven of the top nine are Raptors. If the Warriors are going to win Game 6, not only must the Splash Brothers be productive, but Golden State's role players also have to be better. The Raptors are averaging 111.0 points per game this series, and even though Klay and Steph are averaging a combined 57.4 per game, the way the Warriors' role players have played, it's hard to imagine them catching Toronto's offense without a lot of extra splashes.

Toronto knows that too, and without the reinjured Kevin Durant to worry about, the Raptors will devote their best defensive resources to slowing down the Dubs' perimeter attack.

Thanks to injuries, this is the thinnest Warriors team we've seen in five years, and it's also true that this Raptors squad is the best defense the Dubs have faced in the Finals during their dynasty. In a make-or-miss league, that's an unfortunate combination for Golden State.

But if Klay has shown us anything in this series, it's that champions know how to defy expectations.

We've all seen the ridiculous moon-orbiting blasts and never-ending barrage of home runs. On Sunday, the Nationals tied a record with four consecutive home runs. On Monday, the Diamondbacks and Phillies set a record by combining for 13 home runs. On Tuesday, the Braves hit four home runs in one inning. Jerad Eickhoff allowed five home runs on Monday, and Chris Archer did it on Tuesday.

Entering Wednesday's games, 25 players had already hit 17 home runs, putting them on a 40-homer pace. The single-season record for players with 40 home runs is 17 in 1996. As recently as 2014, only one player -- Nelson Cruz -- hit 40 home runs.

Needless to say, MLB is once again set to shatter the record for total home runs. There were 6,105 home runs in 2017. We're on pace for 6,566 in 2019 -- nearly 1,000 more home runs than there were in 2018. It's not just the quantity but also the apparent cheapness of many of the home runs, seemingly lazy fly balls that land in the bleachers. As Buster Olney said on his podcast the other day, "How many times have we heard announcers say, 'I can't believe that one went out'?"

Compared with last season, runs per game are up 0.27, and home runs are up 0.20 per game. Yes, hitters are going for launch angle and all-or-nothing swings while accepting even more strikeouts, but something is clearly up with the ball. The juiced ball of 2017 has returned with rockets attached this time.

Now it's time for a little history lesson. This kind of dramatic season-to-season increase in offense has occurred at various times throughout major league history, with increases traced directly to changes (intentional or not) to the ball. Let's look at some of those seasons and see what happened.

1911: Introducing cork

Runs per game: up 0.68

Home runs per game: up .07

For decades, the National League (and later the American) used a ball produced by the A.G. Spalding Company, founded by White Sox pitcher Albert Spalding in 1876 to manufacture a standard ball for the new professional league. Prior to that, balls were of inconsistent standards and quality. (The American League ball bore a "Reach" label, but Spalding was the actual manufacturer.)

That ball included a rubber core, but during the 1910 World Series, a cork-centered ball was used -- yes, imagine changing the ball that had been used all season for the World Series -- and the cork-centered ball became the new standard. Even though it was still the dead ball era, the increase in runs per game remains the largest year-to-year increase in any season since 1900.

The overall major league batting average increased from .249 to .266. In 1910, 15 players hit .300 across the two leagues, and only three (Ty Cobb, Nap Lajoie and Sherry Magee) slugged above .470. In 1911, 30 players hit .300 and 13 slugged above .470.

Leading the way was Cobb, who hit .419 after hitting .382 the season before. He followed with a .409 mark in 1912. He went from 35 doubles and 13 triples to 47 doubles and 24 triples. Shoeless Joe Jackson, in his first full season in the majors, hit .408. Sam Crawford, Cobb's Hall of Fame Tigers teammate, was a 31-year-old veteran with a .305 career average. He hit .378.

The offensive gains proved short-lived, however. Runs per game went from 4.51 in 1911 and 4.53 in 1912 all the way down to 3.56 by 1916. According to John McMurray of SABR's dead ball era committee in a 2011 New York Times article, a pitcher named Russ Ford started scuffing the ball, which soon became a widespread tactic. Add various forms of the spitball, and offense fell back to low levels.

1930: The year the National League hit .303

Runs per game: up 0.36

Home runs per game: up .08

The so-called "lively ball" era began in 1920 (runs increased from 3.88 to 4.36 from 1919 to 1920), though the initial increase wasn't so much the result of a different ball. There were two other reasons: (A) banning the spitball; (B) using new balls throughout the game rather than dirty, scuffed-up ones. Babe Ruth began slugging home runs, and the new style of power hitting quickly took over.

The most notorious high-offense season in major league history saw an average of 5.55 runs per game, the highest of the live ball era. Next highest: 5.19 in 1929 and 5.14 in 2000. The National League averaged 5.68 runs per game and hit a collective .303. The New York Giants hit .319 as a team, and the Phillies allowed 7.69 runs per game with a 6.71 ERA.

Some of the individual highlights:

-- Hack Wilson hit 56 home runs with a record 191 RBIs.

-- Bill Terry of the Giants hit .401.

-- Chuck Klein hit .386 with 107 extra-base hits and 170 RBIs.

-- Freddie Lindstrom of the Giants hit .379 and became one of the worst Hall of Fame selections ever on the strength of that season.

-- Brooklyn's Babe Herman hit .393 with 35 home runs.

-- Cubs pitcher Guy Bush finished with a 6.20 ERA. He still went 15-10.

That was just in the National League.

What happened? The manufacturer insisted that nothing had changed. "There has been absolutely no change in the major league baseball in the past five years," Spalding president Julian Curtis said that June. "There isn't even a change in the yarn. If we bought our yarn, there might be, but we don't. We have our own yarn mills, and there has been no change in the manufacture or quality; no change in the wrapping; no change in the covers; no change in the rubber or cork."

Giants manager John McGraw suggested the owners needed to fix the ball. "It has taken the confidence out of the pitchers and is so lively the fielders cannot handle it," he said. He also proposed moving the pitching distance two feet closer to home plate. Cubs president Bill Veeck offered that the fans liked all the hitting. "It's the punch that has made baseball over in the last 10 years," he said.

In the end, it was too much offense, even for the owners. The National League changed the ball for 1931, adding a slightly thicker cover and raising the seam. Offense fell from 5.68 runs per game to 4.48, the league average declined from .303 to .277, and home runs dropped from 892 to 493. The American League, however, apparently didn't change its ball, and runs per game remained above 5.0, including 5.67 in 1936 -- just shy of the National League's mark in 1930.

1977: Welcome aboard, Rawlings

Runs per game: up 0.48

Home runs per game: up 0.29

A New York Times story from 1975 detailed the end of Spalding's reign as MLB's baseball manufacturer. With its contract set to expire after the 1976 season, the company reportedly asked for a 5% price increase per ball for 1975 and another 5% for 1976. According to the article, Spalding sold about 250,000 balls per year to MLB at a cost of $2 apiece. A 5% increase to $2.10 per ball would have increased MLB's annual cost to $525,000.

Spalding had produced every baseball ever used in major league baseball, but it was kicked to the curb over an additional $25,000. "The reason is price," said Lee MacPhail, president of the American League. "We're sorry we're ending such a long and proud relationship. But we've been able to work something out with another manufacturer."

That manufacturer became Rawlings in 1977. Before it took over, however, offense nose-dived in 1976 to 3.99 runs per game. Only four players across the majors hit 30 home runs, and only 22 hit even 20. With Rawlings presumably manufacturing a higher quality ball in 1977 (plus new expansion teams in Seattle and Toronto slightly diluting the pitching), 19 players hit 30-plus home runs, and 56 hit at least 20. Among the big hitters:

-- George Foster of the Reds slugged 52 home runs, the first 50-homer slugger since Willie Mays in 1965.

-- Rod Carew hit .388 and slugged .570, the only full season he slugged .500 in his career.

-- The Dodgers had four players hit 30-plus home runs (Steve Garvey, Reggie Smith, Dusty Baker, Davey Lopes), the first time four teammates had done that (11 teams have done it since, all since 1995).

The 4.47 runs per game in 1977 were not topped until something strange happened in 1987.

1987: The rabbit ball

Runs per game: up 0.31

Home runs per game: up 0.15

The first sentence in Frank Deford's column in the July 27 edition of Sports Illustrated asked the question on everyone's mind: "If the baseball is juiced up, who's responsible?" Deford dismissed any conspiracy to change the ball -- something would have leaked if that were the case, he surmised -- and attempted rational explanations for the home run explosion that season. Batters were stronger, a generation of pitchers was on the defensive due to growing up facing aluminum bats and throwing too many breaking balls, and the best athletes had chosen hitting as their trade.

Or this: "The last incredible generation of pitchers -- Gibson, Marichal, Koosman, Seaver, Palmer, Sutton, Hunter, John, Jenkins, Carlton, Tiant, the Perrys and the Niekros -- was the product of that postwar time when traditional philosophy still prevailed: discipline and dedication, the Protestant ethic and the commitment to the long haul." Pitchers weren't tough enough. Or something. George Will went with the aluminum bat theory and increased weight training. Pirates GM Syd Thrift said pitchers were being rushed to the majors. Braves catcher Ozzie Virgil said the bats were better.

OK ... except the 1988 season saw one of the biggest drops in offense in the game's history. Runs per game fell from 4.72 to 4.14, not just below 1987 figures but well below 1986 or 1985 or 1984. There were 3,813 home runs in 1986 (which was a record for total home runs, though not quite the highest per-game average), then 4,458 in 1987, then 3,180 in 1988. The MLB-wide batting average went from .258 to .263 to .254.

It was the ball. That was the prevailing theory from those in the game. Tigers manager Sparky Anderson referred to the "nitroglycerin ball." Astros pitcher Mike Scott said the balls were going farther. Reds manager Pete Rose said the ball was definitely livelier.

Indeed, some individual numbers were eye-popping. A's rookie Mark McGwire hit 49 home runs. So did Andre Dawson. Twenty-eight players hit 30-plus home runs, compared with 13 in 1986. Singles- and doubles-hitting Wade Boggs, who hit 22 home runs the previous three seasons, hit 24; he never hit more than 11 the rest of his career. Tony Gwynn hit .370, Boggs hit .363, and Paul Molitor hit .353 and had a 39-game hitting streak. Larry Sheets hit .316 with 31 home runs for the Orioles. (He finished at .266 and 94 in his career.)

Four of the six highest individual home run seasons in the 1980s came in 1987. Eight of the top 14 OPS seasons in the decade came in 1987. As Matthew Pouliot pointed out in an article several years ago, perhaps no player benefited from the 1987 rabbit ball more than Dawson. He won MVP honors for a last-place Cubs team on the strength of those 49 home runs and a league-leading 137 RBIs. His second-highest home run total in his career: 32. Without that 49-homer season and MVP award, he might not have made the Hall of Fame.

Then, just like that, the ball was dead. In 1987, only four starting pitchers had a sub-3.00 ERA. In 1988, 20 pitchers achieved that mark. The sport entered a five-year span with a relative lull in offense.

1993: Juiced players or juiced ball?

Runs per game: up 0.48

Home runs per game: up 0.17

After the lull came the explosion. In a two-year span, runs per game went from 4.12 to 4.60 to 4.92. Home runs per game increased from 0.72 to 0.89 to 1.03. Yes, the Rockies joined the National League in 1993, helping to create more offense, but that alone hardly explains a half-run per game increase. Indeed, the American League -- without games in Colorado -- went from 4.32 runs to 4.71 to 5.23. No doubt, PED use was starting to spread across the sport, but the PED theory assumes the unlikelihood that everyone started using all at once.

So it was the ball. Something changed in the 1992-93 offseason. The full impact was felt more intensely over two seasons, but some of the individual increases in 1993 were dramatic:

-- In 1992, 10 players hit 30 home runs, and two hit more than 35: Juan Gonzalez (43) and Mark McGwire (42). In 1993, 22 players hit 30 home runs, and 10 hit more than 35.

-- Seven players in 1993 posted an OPS above 1.000. Over five seasons from 1988 to 1992, only five players topped 1.000.

-- Barry Bonds slugged .677 in 1993, the highest figure since Mickey Mantle in 1961.

-- Andres Galarraga hit .370 (in Colorado), and John Olerud hit .363 with 54 doubles for the Blue Jays.

-- Ken Griffey Jr. went from 27 home runs to 45.

In 1994, things went completely nuts:

-- When the strike hit in August, Matt Williams (43), Griffey (40), Jeff Bagwell (39) and Frank Thomas (38) were trying to chase down Roger Maris' record of 61 home runs.

-- Three players -- Bagwell (.750), Thomas (.729) and Albert Belle (.714) -- slugged over .700, which had been accomplished just three times since World War II (Ted Williams, Mantle and Stan Musial). Bagwell's .750 mark was higher than anybody's since Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig in 1927.

-- Tony Gwynn hit .394.

And so on. So what happened? One suggestion is that it was around this time that Rawlings switched from hand manufacture of the core to machine manufacture, which resulted in more tightly wound cores. The offensive gains were only partially realized in 1993 due to some leftover balls from 1992 still existing in the pipeline.

The owners certainly realized what was happening. The fans loved the long ball. Attendance increased from 26,529 fans per game in 1992 to 30,964 in 1993 to 31,256 in 1994.

There's your history lesson. It's a reminder that a baseball is a lot more complex object than it might appear.

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