MANCHESTER, England -- Manchester United have released Ander Herrera and Antonio Valencia while Juan Mata has been offered a new contract, the Premier League has confirmed.

- When does the transfer window close?

Club captain Valencia and Herrera are two of 14 players released this summer. Herrera is expected to join Paris Saint-Germain on a free transfer.

Mata is out of contract on June 30 but has not been officially released because he has an offer on the table. Sources have told ESPN FC that the Spain international is still in talks with the club.

As well as Herrera and Valencia, James Wilson, who scored twice on his senior debut as a teenager in 2014, will also leave Old Trafford this summer.

Millen Baars, Joshua Bohui, Zachary Dearnley, Callum Gribbin, DJ Buffonge, Regan Poole, Tom Sang, Tyrell Warren, Callum Whelan and Matty Willock have also been released along with United States international Matthew Olosunde.

Sources have told ESPN FC that Olosunde, who made his senior international debut last year, is hoping to extend his stay in Europe, preferably with another English club, rather than return to MLS.

A glance at the fixtures list for this World Cup will tell you the knock-out section of the tournament does not start for another month. But England, at least, could be forgiven for feeling it starts on Saturday.

If that sounds like hyperbole, it's worth musing on likely scenarios. It looks, at this stage, as if teams with up to three losses will probably qualify for the semi-finals. And, with England having won one and lost one of their two games to date, defeat in Cardiff on Saturday would leave them going into their final six group matches with little margin for error. Especially as they face a tough final three games against India, New Zealand and Australia.

But the weather has added something of a wildcard element to that equation. Washouts - especially washouts in games involving Afghanistan and Sri Lanka - could prove definitive, as Australia (who were eliminated from the 2017 Champions Trophy having managed to play only one game to completion) could testify. In short, defeat at the hands of Bangladesh could leave England facing an uphill challenge to qualify.

They will not, therefore, require any reminders about the importance of this match or the quality of their opposition. Not only did Bangladesh defeat England in the previous two World Cups - the loss in Adelaide in 2015 sealed England's early departure from the tournament - but Cardiff was the scene of the defeat that ended England's Champions Trophy run in 2017. "Bangladesh are a side with a huge amount of potential," Eoin Morgan, the England captain, said. "It is going to be a difficult game because they're a good side. I think people under-estimate them."

All of which could leave the England environment just a little tense. So it is hardly surprising that the last few days have seen the management focus on attempting to alleviate that pressure and focus on the qualities - the joy and fearlessness - which sparked such a resurgence after the debacle of the 2015 World Cup. There have been no extra fielding sessions, no talk of the importance of this game and no thought of changing tactics.

"The last couple of days for us has been a case of getting away from the game," Morgan said. "I watch a lot of horse racing and speak to friends and family.

"No, there have been no extra fielding drills. Absolutely not. Fielding for us has been an extremely strong point. We proved that in the first game. We had a bad day in the field at Trent Bridge. That can happen. I wouldn't say we were more anxious than normal.

"As a team, all we've talked about is sticking to what we do well and looking to our strengths. Before the tournament started we talked about losing games and how we would. Everything goes back to focusing on our strengths and how to get the best out of ourselves.

"There's no panic. We're very realistic about performances whether we win or lose. If it doesn't go our way next game or the game after, there's no panic. It's all about sticking to the process."

At such moments, Morgan sounds increasingly like a motivational speaker. And if it's a temptation to lampoon his positivity - defeat against Pakistan is described as a "huge opportunity to learn more" while Jofra Archer's struggles at Trent Bridge are interpreted as a positive: "If he doesn't get hit, he won't learn," - but England are surely fortunate to have such a calm figure leading them. While previous campaigns have seen panic-driven changes of strategy at the last minute - dropping the captain just before the 2015 tournament, for example - Morgan is steadfast in his plans, equable in his temperament, and confident in the team he has assembled.

His reaction to Archer's outing at Trent Bridge is a decent example. Rather than seeing Archer's figures - he conceded 79 from his 10 overs - and his fine for dissent as grounds for concern, he sees it as an inevitable step in the young player's journey. Next time, he reasons, Archer will be better.

"Jofra had never been hit before," Morgan said. "He just didn't go for any runs and eventually he went for runs. If he doesn't get hit, he won't learn. He has very rarely failed but when he does, he is quite chilled. After the game he was very relaxed. He is at the point in his career where he is picking up everything very quickly.

"Yes, learning in a World Cup brings pressure. But he has played in the IPL, which is as good as you can replicate in the World Cup."

Morgan is not convinced that the 2015 defeat in Adelaide was especially traumatic, either. While it sealed England's fate, he feels it was the loss in Wellington - where New Zealand won with almost 38 overs remaining - that was more reflective of how far off the pace England had fallen and more relevant in proving a catalyst for change.

"We were knocked out after that Bangladesh match," he said, "but I wouldn't say it was a watershed moment. The big contributor to changing the way we played was the New Zealand game in Wellington. That made a big contribution to us making steps forward and good decisions.

"We weren't humiliated by Bangladesh. We were beaten again by a better team who deserved to win on the night. The humiliating games were the ones that happened previously. Ones where we were blown away."

It remains likely England will recall Liam Plunkett in place of one of the spinners - probably Adil Rashid - on Saturday. While the wicket has not played quite as green as it has looked here in recent games, those short boundaries are a nightmare for spinners, so England's attack may be more seam heavy than usual. And that might present a challenge to Morgan in ensuring his side bowl their overs within the three-and-a-half hour window allowed.

"There's a chance we might go to four seamers," Morgan said. "The wicket that we saw on Thursday looked similar to the wickets that have been played on here previously. There's a bit of extra green grass. And it's been under the covers for another day. So yes, there's a chance we will change the team.

"Sides have struggled with the over-rates so far, it's not just us that has to keep an eye on it. I certainly don't want to get suspended. Hopefully we can stay on top of it."

Sri Lanka should move Angelo Mathews up the order and get back to playing their cricket on "the front foot", according to former coach Paul Farbrace. After a washout in their match against Pakistan at Bristol, Sri Lanka find themselves sitting third on the table - for 24 hours or so, at least - with three points from three games, and Farbrace suggested they still had the capability to make an impact on the World Cup.

After some eyebrow-raising selection decisions, like the ones to leave out Dinesh Chandimal and Niroshan Dickwella, and name Dimuth Karunaratne as captain despite not playing an ODI since 2015, Sri Lanka stumbled badly in their opening match, a ten-wicket hammering by New Zealand. Although they recovered to beat Afghanistan, the batting proved fallible again, collapsing from 144 for 1 to 201 all out; coming in at No. 5, Mathews lasted just two balls.

As well as tweaking the line-up, Farbrace, who led Sri Lanka to the World T20 title in 2014 and was also assistant coach between 2007 and 2009, said the team needed to channel the spirit that had previously made the small island nation such a resilient performer at major tournaments.

"I watched the game in Cardiff last Saturday against New Zealand and the thing that disappointed me the most about that was that it was a very un-Sri Lankan performance, they weren't on the front foot, they weren't taking the game to the opposition," he told ESPNcricinfo.

"I always think of the Sri Lanka team as a team that take the game to the oppositions, that play smart cricket, they're streetfighters, they're wise and they always get the best out of situations. I thought in that game they were a little bit timid, a little bit taking a backward step and I'd just like to see them take the game on. They've got so many exciting talented players in that team, and I'd like to see them take the game on a little bit.

"We realistically know that we're not one of the strongest sides in the competition but that doesn't mean that we can't reach the semi-finals if we get our performances right at times when other people don't quite hit their straps." Sri Lanka's batting coach Jon Lewis

"I'd like to see Angelo up the order at four, and I think they have got the capability and the skill to win games in this tournament. I don't like hearing people talk about the fact they are going to finish bottom of the table, and they're not a great team. They've got a lot of skill in there and I think it's time to show that and take opposition on.

"Most Sri Lankan supporters I've spoken to say, 'we just want to see the boys play, we want to see them give something.' The way that they lost that first game in Cardiff was disappointing because they are better than that. I'm not being critical, I would just love to see them go and play. It's easy to say, sitting the other side of the boundary, but that's what they're about. That's what inspires people."

Although Sri Lanka had some success in moving Kusal Perera up to open in their second game - his 78 proved vital in setting a competitive total - Farbrace suggested that they might be better served by sticking with Lahiru Thirimanne alongside Karunaratne at the top of the order. This he felt will also put the onus on Mathews, who has so far struggled on his return to the ODI side after being dropping over fitness issues in 2018.

"It doesn't matter who's in the XI, it doesn't matter who's been left behind in Sri Lanka," Farbrace said. "In my view, there's a couple of players who should be here: Dickwella, Chandimal, should definitely be in this team without a shadow of a doubt. But the lads that are here have the chance to do something.

"I would bat Angelo at No. 4. You can keep him away from the new ball down the order, but the best players should face the most amount of balls. So put him at No. 4, I would move Kusal Perera to No. 5-6, give him a floating role - have Dimuth and Thirimanne opening and then move Kusal down. And allow him to play his natural game. If you've got a good, solid start at the top from Thirimanne, who is a fantastic player, Dimuth, who are fantastic players - let them give you a good solid start and then let's use the next 30 overs after that to cash in and score some runs."

Sri Lanka's batting coach, Jon Lewis, speaking before the Pakistan game, suggested that the management had a similar plan in mind, owing to the "strong Test feel" about squad - Karunaratne won his recall after success leading the Test side in South Africa. However, he admitted: "We haven't been perfect at setting the foundation yet."

Lewis was also hopeful that Sri Lanka would confound some of their critics as the tournament went on, possibly even remaining in contention for the knockouts if results went their way. Escaping with a point against a Pakistan side coming off the back of beating England - and who were clearly more eager to get on to the field in Bristol - thanks to the rain could yet constitute a vital slice of luck.

"It's hard to say for sure what you need to do to reach that semi-final," he said. "It's quite likely that the weather will have an impact on some people's games - and if some people are lucky, that might have an impact on how far as you go as a team. We realistically know that we're not one of the strongest sides in the competition but that doesn't mean that we can't reach the semi-finals if we get our performances right at times when other people don't quite hit their straps and maybe the weather comes in at the right time for us once or twice."

Afghanistan will miss his buoyant stroke-making at the top of the order, as well as the experience he provides, but just as great a loss to their long World Cup campaign will be the energy wicketkeeper-batsman Mohammad Shahzad brings to the dressing room. So said captain Gulbadin Naib, a day after it was confirmed Shahzad's long-standing knee complaint would rule him out of the remainder of the tournament.

Shahzad had not exactly lit the World Cup up in two innings, making 0 against Australia and 7 against Sri Lanka. His form before that, however, was good. He had struck 101 off 88 against Ireland, and 55 off 67 against Scotland - both those innings having come in May.

"Shahzad is very energetic, and in the dressing room he's very funny," Gulbadin said ahead of the New Zealand clash in Taunton. "He's always entertaining his team members, so we miss a lot of things he does outside the ground, even. But when you are playing for your country, you've got to do what is right for the team.

"He's a big loss because he's one of the great players for Afghanistan, and I'm upset for him. But the last two to three weeks, he's been struggling with his knee. He wasn't feeling good in the matches. He wasn't able to move at the right time."

Although on the surface, Saturday's match may seem a mismatch between a team that has won both their matches so far, and a side yet to claim any World Cup points, there is at least one battle that promises to be tense. Kane Williamson, one of the best players of spin around, will probably come up against Afghanistan's Rashid Khan - one of legspin bowling's finest purveyors. The two play for the same IPL side, but having faced Rashid in the nets won't necessarily have done Williamson much good, said Gulbadin.

"It's very difficult to face Rashid. In the last two seasons, Rashid and Kane Williamson have been playing together in Sunrisers Hyderabad, but Rashid is not like other bowlers. He's totally different. He has been in our national team for four years, but even then, none of us know what he's bowling in the nets. So it's very difficult to pick him. Rashid is very different - very fast. He doesn't give you time to pick him. So I hope Rashid will be at his best."

Rashid's effectiveness, however, may be curtailed by a Taunton surface that has turned up green on match eve, and seems likelier to assist fast bowling than it does spin. As such, New Zealand's quicks may present a serious challenge to Afghanistan's batsmen, who stumbled against pace against Sri Lanka in their last match. Gulbadin, though, is encouraging his batsmen to play the ball on its merits, without taking the reputation of the likes of Trent Boult to heart.

"If think too much about the names [of the opposition], maybe it's very difficult. If you go with the ball or the bat, maybe it's very easy. I don't think their bowling is that fast. So my plan for the boys is just to play our natural game, and show why we are here."

NEW YORK -- A former assistant basketball coach at Oklahoma State and the University of South Carolina was sentenced to three months in prison Friday for accepting bribes to link top players with bribe-paying managers and financial advisers.

U.S. District Judge Edgardo Ramos said actions by Lamont Evans were "perhaps more egregious" than those of two other ex-assistant basketball coaches he sentenced earlier in the week. He also ordered him to forfeit $22,000 and work 100 hours of community service.

Evidence against Evans contained recordings, including one in which he promised that athletes he recruited would sign with managers and financial advisers that he recommended.

"Anybody else that come along. ... I'm going to bury them," he was heard promising on one recorded call that was played at a recent trial of co-defendants.

As Ramos announced the sentence, he referenced letters that friends and family members of Evans had written that recounted the good deeds he had done, particularly on behalf of young people.

"The individuals who wrote those letters would not recognize the Lamont Evans who comes across in the government's videos," the judge said.

Evans, 41, told the judge that he thought he'd found "an easy way to make money" when he accepted $22,000 in bribes to work on behalf of bribe paying athlete handlers in 2016 and 2017.

"In hindsight and upon reflection, I knew that it was wrong," he said.

As he emerged from the courtroom and encountered several reporters, Evans said: "It's one of the saddest days of my life."

Prosecutors did not win at least 18 months in prison as they had sought.

Assistant U.S. Attorney Robert Boone had argued that Evans was more culpable than others arrested in the probe because he solicited bribes and gifts, including a set of headphones, and traveled across the country several times for meetings to arrange them.

"It wasn't a situation where people paying bribes were coming to his house and throwing money to him," Boone said.

With his September 2017 arrest, Evans lost his $600,000 job and the likelihood he would eventually become a head coach. At the time, he was at Oklahoma State.

His guilty plea in January to bribery conspiracy also could lead to his deportation from the country where he has lived since age 2. He is a citizen of Barbados.

Evans was charged in a case that revealed the role of corrupt coaches in a scheme to steer NBA-bound youngsters to schools or managers.

He was among four coaches who were charged. All pleaded guilty to bribery conspiracy.

On Thursday, Emanuel "Book" Richardson , formerly an assistant basketball coach at the University of Arizona, was sentenced to three months in prison.

On Wednesday, Tony Bland, former assistant basketball coach for the University of Southern California, was sentenced to 100 hours of community service but no prison time.

Chuck Person, a former assistant coach at Auburn University, is awaiting sentencing.

Prosecutors in Johnson County, Kansas, are not actively working a criminal investigation into possible child abuse involving Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill.

"It is not an active investigation," District Attorney Steve Howe told the Kansas City Star on Friday. "As in any case, if we receive additional evidence we reevaluate."

While the criminal case is not currently being pursued, there is a continuing investigation into the matter by the Kansas Department for Children and Families. The NFL has also begun an investigation, but league spokesman Brian McCarthy told the Star that the NFL was waiting for permission from the DCF to interview Hill.

The investigation began when authorities were called to Hill's home twice in March and determined that a 3-year-old child had been injured.

Howe announced in April that charges would not be filed. At the time, he said that he believed a crime occurred, but the evidence in the case didn't clearly establish who committed the crime.

A day later, Hill was heard discussing striking his son on an audio recording of a conversation between Hill and his fiancée, which was obtained by Kansas City television station KCTV. Howe responded by saying he was reopening a criminal investigation.

Following the release of the audio, the Chiefs announced that Hill had been barred indefinitely from all team activities until more was known.

In a letter to the NFL, lawyers for Hill categorically denied the abuse allegations and accused Hill's fiancée of abusing their 3-year-old son.

The Chiefs began offseason practice last month but Hill has yet to participate. The team's offseason work will conclude next week with a three-day mini-camp.

ESPN's Adam Teicher contributed to this report.

The Washington Nationals have agreed to a minor league deal with Dante Bichette Jr. after purchasing his contract from the High Point Rockers of the Independent League.

Bichette, 26, was hitting .397/.424/.529 for the Rockers after being cut from the Yankees' minor league system. A former first-round draft pick of the Yankees, he never got past Double-A and was cut in 2017.

Bichette's brother, Bo, is a hot prospect in the Toronto Blue Jays system who is currently recovering from a fractured hand. His father, Dante Bichette, played in the majors for 14 seasons. He was a four-time All-Star with the Colorado Rockies in the '90s and led the National League in homers in 1995.

CHICAGO -- After months of waiting to join a team -- he says the wait was harder on his friends and family -- elite closer Craig Kimbrel arrived at Wrigley Field on Friday declaring himself ready for action.

Kimbrel, 31, signed a three-year deal with the Chicago Cubs after becoming a free agent way back in October.

"Am I surprised?" Kimbrel asked rhetorically about the process taking so long. "No. Am I disappointed where I am right now? No, not at all. I'm glad I've made it through this process, which was tough, and hopefully we can get this worked out between players and owners moving forward. That's a different conversation."

Kimbrel didn't dig deep into what kept him out of uniform, but it doesn't take a collective bargaining agreement expert to figure it out. Per league rules, a team that would sign him on or after June 3 wouldn't have to give up a draft pick to do so. The Cubs pounced.

"We think this team has a chance to accomplish our goals, which is to win the World Series, and we were going to be in an aggressive mindset when it came to the bullpen," Cubs president Theo Epstein said. "We were able to go out and get the individual I think can help us more than anyone else in baseball, given the makeup of this team and the aspirations that we have."

Kimbrel says he stayed in shape throwing at a local high school outside of Orlando, and although the team has an internal timeline for his debut in a Cubs uniform, it'll take things slow with him. After throwing a bullpen session at Wrigley Field on Saturday, Kimbrel will head to the Cubs' spring facility in Arizona for about a week and then to a minor league rehab stint.

"It's based off how I recover, how I get ready," Kimbrel said. "This isn't about getting back on the field as fast as I can. This is about being the best that I can in October."

Epstein echoed those sentiments.

"We're not going to rush it," he said. "It's going to be tempting to get him here as soon as possible. We're trying to play this thing the right way so he can be in a position to succeed, not just immediately but all the way through October. That's going to be our guiding principle as we go."

The Cubs sent one of their scouts as well as special assistant David Ross, who is also an ESPN analyst, to watch Kimbrel throw last week. Both gave positive reviews, and the deal was quickly reached.

"At this point I've probably long-tossed and thrown as many bullpens as I ever have," Kimbrel said with a smile.

The seven-time All-Star admitted he wasn't as sharp in the postseason for the Red Sox last year, when he had a 5.91 ERA, but he didn't offer any reasons for his ineffectiveness.

"At times I struggled in the playoffs," Kimbrel said. "I struggled with location. I didn't hurt my team. I may have made things interesting out there, but I didn't lose a single game."

Kimbrel and the Cubs prefer to look forward, as their connection turned into a no-brainer for the Cubs.

"If there was any chance to get this done, we wanted to get it done," Epstein said. "We saw it as a unique opportunity. How often can you add a closer like Craig, someone who's on a Hall of Fame trajectory, with the need that we have midseason, without giving up any prospects? It's such a great opportunity for the Cubs. We all sat down and said, 'If there is a way to make this happen, we want him to wear a Cubs uniform.'"

One final touch came from a former teammate, as Cubs outfielder Jason Heyward sent Kimbrel a long text. The two played together in Atlanta, and Heyward wanted to let Kimbrel know he would be welcome in Chicago.

"All I needed to know is: 'Where should I live, and what number am I going to wear?'" Kimbrel responded.

CLEVELAND -- Eight months after undergoing offseason Tommy John surgery, Didi Gregorius is back in a big league uniform, and he's using social media to indicate just how excited he is about that opportunity.

The New York Yankees shortstop returned Friday from his rehab assignment at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, reinstated off the Yankees' 60-day injured list. He is expected to make his 2019 debut when the Yankees open a three-game series Friday at the Cleveland Indians. Manager Aaron Boone said Thursday that Gregorius "should be in the lineup."

To add Gregorius back onto their 40-man roster, the Yankees transferred shortstop Troy Tulowitzki from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL. Thairo Estrada, who had been helping fill in for both injured middle infielders, was optioned back to Triple-A following the Yankees' win in Toronto on Thursday.

Minutes before the Yankees made the roster moves official, Gregorius posted to Twitter a digital cartoon that he designed himself. An artist and photographer on the side, Gregorius has long had talents that extend off the baseball field.

After 3️⃣.5️⃣ months of almost a 1️⃣0️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ digital ✍️ layers to put this clip together for this day pic.twitter.com/zx2id8114o

— Sir Didi Gregorius (@DidiG18) June 7, 2019

According to his tweet, it took three and a half months and nearly 1,000 digital layers for the shortstop to put together the video that helped him announce his return. The video features a cartoon version of Gregorius going through his first-inning, 2017 American League wild-card game at-bat against Minnesota's Ervin Santana.

With the Yankees entering the bottom of the first already down 3-0, Gregorius stepped up with two on and one out. He promptly lined a full-count pitch out to right field for a game-tying three-run homer. The Yankees went on to win the game 8-4, and advanced all the way to the ALCS, before losing to eventual World Series champion Houston in seven games.

Also part of the minute-long cartoon is broadcaster Dan Schulman's call of the actual home run. Near the end of the video, Yankees manager Aaron Boone, then in the booth with Schulman, can be heard remarking on the "big hit" from the shortstop. ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball crew, of which Boone was a part, called that game.

The lyrics "they counted me out" from the first verse of rapper J. Cole's "Middle Child" also are featured prominently in the video.

Gregorius scuffled at the plate a bit during his rehab assignments with Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and the High-A Tampa Tarpons. He hit a combined .156 with one home run, two RBIs and two runs scored in eight games.

It was during Game 2 of last year's ALDS that Gregorius felt discomfort in his right elbow when he tried throwing back a ricocheted ball from near Fenway Park's Green Monster. He played through the final two games of the series before undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Last year, Gregorius, who finished with a career-high 27 homers and a career-high .829 OPS, led all of baseball in slugging percentage, RBIs and homers across the first month of the season.

Among this weekend's most intriguing matchups are Cubs-Cardinals and Red Sox-Rays, series with some strong feelings attached to them, even in early June. Plus, will the Astros rake the Orioles' homer-happy pitching? Who will come out on top in a showdown between phenoms past and present?

Here's what we're most excited to see:

Over the past few weeks, the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals (Friday, 2:20 p.m., ESPN+; Sunday, 7 p.m., ESPN) both have been floating around .500. Look into your crystal ball: Who makes the playoffs? Cubs, Cardinals, both or neither?

Eddie Matz: The Chicago Craig Kimbrels are in. Not that their bullpen was horrible before (fourth-best ERA in the National League), but now? Fuhgedaboutit. For the Cardinals to get a wild card, they'll need to be better than the Philantawaukee Braveries. I don't think that happens this year.

Sam Miller: It's a lot better to float around .500 when you're already well above .500, as the Cubs were after the season's first six weeks. It's also better when you're running through the difficult stretch of your schedule, as the Cubs have been. After the Dodgers, the Cubs are probably the safest pick for an NL playoff spot, and by signing Craig Kimbrel they're wisely acting like it. I think I like the Cardinals a little more than the betting line does, but that's a mess of a wild-card picture, and the surging Nationals are just making it messier.

David Schoenfield: I'll tag along behind Eddie and Sam and go with the Cubs, as well. The lineup is deep, with five guys potentially hitting 30 home runs (that's never been done before). The rotation is solid, and now the bullpen should be much better. The Cardinals don't have any glaring weaknesses, but -- so far, anyway -- they don't have any obvious strengths. They just need Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina and Miles Mikolas to play like they did in 2018. I had the Cards as a wild card before the season, but right now, I think I'd predict them to fall short -- in part because they're counting on a bunch of 30-somethings to perform better.

The Rays visit Fenway Park for four games with the Red Sox. What are the chances, from 1 to 100, that this is a preview of the American League wild-card game?

Matz: Without Austin Meadows, the Rays went 9-6. Without Tyler Glasnow, they've won 13 of 22. Without Joey Wendle ... well ... they've been without Joey Wendle for pretty much the entire season. I don't know how they keep doing it, but they keep doing it. The only way this isn't a wild-card preview is if Tampa Bay manages to outlast the Yankees for the AL East title. Which could totally happen. In fact, Baseball Prospectus currently has the Rays at 42.1% to win the division; FanGraphs has them at 22.7%. I'll take the average (32.4) and say there's a 68% chance that TB v. BOS is a wild-card preview.

Miller: 51/49, though I'd bet the wild-card game will be held not in Boston but in St. Petersburg. I'm personally happy that this weekend's series is in Fenway, though, so that we can drop "playoff-type atmosphere" into our descriptions of it. There also is an almost 100 percent chance that, if it is Red Sox and Rays on Oct. 1, Boston's starter will be Chris Sale -- the one pitcher Tampa Bay gets to avoid this weekend.

Schoenfield: I want to say 100, if only because I'm already dreaming of a Chris Sale vs. Blake Snell wild-card showdown of showdowns before 12,000 fans at the Trop. I kid! Well, sort of. What's up with Tampa Bay's attendance? The Rays currently are averaging 13,802 per game, which is low even for them. They recently drew the smallest crowd in franchise history. They're averaging almost 10,000 fans less per game than they did in 2009 and 2010, when they averaged more than 23,000 per game. This team deserves to play in front of more fans. Anyway, I half-expect the A's to make one of their patented second-half runs, but the Red Sox should hold them off.

Sunday's schedule includes a cool matchup of pitching phenoms past and present, as the Nationals' Stephen Strasburg faces the Padres' Chris Paddack. What "first impression" by a rookie pitcher stands out in your memory?

Matz: Gregg Olson, 1989. A year after Baltimore lost 21 straight to start the season, he was a huge part of the "Why Not" Orioles that shocked everyone and came this close to beating out Toronto for the AL East pennant. Olson had a cup of coffee in September 1988, but his real first impression came that following season, when he used that monster curveball of his to save 27 games and win rookie of the year. Of course, it was the same herculean hammer (if memory serves) that led to a game-tying wild pitch against the Blue Jays in the final series of the season, which led to a blown save, which led to an O's loss, which led to a second-place finish, which led to a certain high school senior running away from home not long after that. (OK, so technically, I went to college, but that doesn't sound nearly as dramatic as running away from home.)

Miller: On May 10, 2013, Shelby Miller threw a complete-game one-hitter, striking out 13 and walking nobody. It was just his eighth major league start, and it lowered his career ERA to 1.52. My memory of that start is a little prom-night fuzzy, but my recollection is that he threw almost nothing but fastballs, that he threw almost nothing but strikes, that the Rockies hitters all looked like they were drunk on peach schnapps, and that in the ninth inning that start and I slow-danced to K-Ci & JoJo's "All My Life."

Schoenfield: I'm going to cheat and mention two pitchers, but it's not cheating because both mentions come from 1984. That was Dwight Gooden's rookie year, and imagine if we had Twitter and social media back then. He struck out 10 in his fourth start and followed up with another 10-strikeout game. He fanned 11 and then 14 and then would really kick into gear in September when he had back-to-back 16-strikeout games -- still the only pitcher to do that. Remember, this also was when strikeouts were harder to come by. Gooden had 15 double-digit strikeout games that year -- and there were only 91 all season. He had 16.5% of all double-digit strikeout games. And he was 19!

The other rookie pitcher that year was Mark Langston (like Gooden, he led his league in strikeouts). Since I'm from Seattle, I saw him a lot more. As with Gooden, I can't remember the specific first game I saw him pitch, but I do remember sitting out in the left-field bleachers for an August game against the Tigers (who would go on to win the World Series). Langston, with that high leg kick that was pure awesomeness, pitched a two-hit complete game with 12 strikeouts. Tigers manager Sparky Anderson called him the best young lefty he'd ever seen (if my memory is correct).

Your turn: What are you most looking forward to seeing this weekend?

Miller: In Max Scherzer's career, he has thrown a 17-strikeout, no-walk no-hitter; thrown a 10-strikeout, no-walk no-hitter; thrown the closest thing we've seen to a "Statcast no-hitter" and struck out 20 batters in a start, one of only five 20-K games in history. He is probably the best pitcher in the game, but he is definitely the best jaw-dropping-pitching-line pitcher in the game. This year, he has the best strikeout rate of his career, and on Saturday, he faces the Padres -- who have a good lineup, but they strike out more often than any team in baseball. If I could pick one game for 21 K's this year, it would be this one, so I'll be watching.

Schoenfield: I just picked my Way Too Early All-Star Roster and didn't fit Austin Meadows on it. Rays fans let me have it. I had Mike Trout, Mookie Betts and Joey Gallo as the starters, and George Springer, Michael Brantley, Byron Buxton and Trey Mancini (as the Orioles' rep) in reserve. Meadows has been amazing, but his track record isn't the same as Springer and Brantley, and he doesn't play center field like Buxton. To make up for that omission, I'm going to watch Meadows take on the Red Sox.

PICK 'EM TIME

We have what appears to be an epic mismatch in Houston with Astros-O's. Houston's run differential for the weekend: Over or under 8.5?

Matz: Without Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and George Springer, the Astros' offense isn't its usual overpowering self. Plus, Dylan Bundy has been much more effective lately, and the Orioles luck out by missing Justin Verlander. Under.

Miller: If the Astros' winning percentage and the Orioles' winning percentage are accurate reflections of each team's true talent, then the Astros are slightly more likely to sweep than not (without even considering Houston's home field advantage). If that happens, then one blowout is all it'll take, and a quick tally finds that, against the AL's best teams, the Orioles have been blown out only slightly less often than once every three games. The Astros are better than the AL's best teams. So: Over.

Schoenfield: The Mariners just beat the Astros 14-1. Anything can happen in baseball! The Astros are rolling out their B lineup these days, and the Orioles' pitching has actually not been as miserable as it was in April. Under.

Talk of star power in the National League this season has been dominated by Belly and Yelly -- Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich -- but for those who haven't noticed, Anthony Rendon and Nolan Arenado, two old standbys, are having great seasons again. Who will have more total bases this weekend: Rendon or Arenado?

Matz: Arenado hasn't been great at Citi Field, and Jacob deGrom has his number (2-for-17 lifetime). But when it comes to total bases, it's all about the dingers, and Colorado's third baseman has hit four in 14 at-bats against Steven Matz (Friday's starter). So even though Rendon is completely locked in at the plate right now, I'm taking Arenado here.

Miller: Since the Nationals hit their lowest point, they've gone 9-2 and Rendon has hit .359/.500/.667 (through Wednesday). Rendon's worldwide recognition as a superstar is long overdue, so I'm personally pulling for him to keep slugging, for the Nationals to keep making up ground in the pennant race and for a bunch of MVP voters to write late-summer columns making Rendon's case. He gets two lefty starters in San Diego this weekend, so I'll go with him.

Schoenfield: Here's a fun/sad fact: Rendon has never made the All-Star team. Is he the best active player never to make one? Probably -- him or Andrelton Simmons.

Most career WAR, no All-Star appearances among active players:

Simmons: 36.0
Carlos Santana: 27.9
Anibal Sanchez: 26.2
Kevin Kiermaier: 25.7
Josh Reddick: 24.8
Rendon: 23.2

Rendon should make it this year, although if Arenado starts and Kris Bryant or even Manny Machado win the player vote, Rendon could get squeezed out.

Oh, the question: I'll go with Rendon.

What's your pick for the Sunday night game at Wrigley?

Matz: The three most important things my parents taught me are: (1) Always look both ways before crossing the street, (2) don't lie and (3) never bet against Kyle Hendricks. I'll take the Cubs.

Miller: Adam Wainwright's strike rate has now fallen in each of the past four seasons, and this year's rate -- just under 60 percent -- is the lowest of his career, the second lowest among all NL starters and the cause of the career-high seven walks he issued in his (otherwise excellent) last start. There are good pitchers with low strike rates, to be sure, but the Cubs lead the majors in walk rate this year. They are the team most likely to make Wainwright pay.

Schoenfield: Hendricks threw that 81-pitch shutout in his previous start against the Cardinals. He won't do that again, but he'll pitch the Cubs to victory.

TWO TRUE OUTCOMES

Home run hitters

Matz: Christian Yelich

Miller: Alex Bregman.

Schoenfield: Mike Trout (hello, Mariners pitching).

Strikeout pitchers

Matz: Lucas Giolito.

Miller: Max Scherzer. Twenty-one K's comin'.

Schoenfield: I like Sam's logic here, but since he beat me to Scherzer (who I might have used already anyway), I'll go with Stephen Strasburg versus the whiff-prone Padres. Maybe I used Strasburg. Who is keeping track of this? You won't believe the side bets Eddie, Sam and I have going here.