The story of the 2019 baseball season has been all the home runs. Pick your favorite storyline and there's a good chance it circles back to home runs in some fashion: Twins, Yankees, Pete Alonso, Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich, Ronald Acuna Jr. hitting 41 at age 21, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez and so on. Many of your least favorite storylines also circle back to home runs: the Orioles, Gleyber Torres versus the Orioles, the Nationals' bullpen, the Astros playing consecutive games with scores of 21-1, 15-0 and 21-7 ... Craig Kimbrel (sorry, Cubs fans).

It computes, then, that a major plotline of the 2019 postseason will be home runs. The team that wins will hit a bunch of them and prevent their opponents from hitting too many of them. Let's dig into what we might see this October.

There WILL be a lot of home runs

Unless Those In Charge dig out old boxes of 2014 balls from a storage bin at Kauffman Stadium, the postseason will be played with the same lively ball we've seen all season. Yes, we'll see much better pitching in October, but history suggests that we'll still see plenty of home runs at rates similar to the regular-season clip, no matter who is pitching.

The old adage is that good pitching beats good hitting. Because of that, you often hear broadcasters say that teams can't rely on the home run in the postseason -- at least not to the same extent that they do in the regular season -- so teams should invoke more one-run strategies or that teams that string together hits will fare better.

It's true that run scoring is slightly lower in the postseason -- not only do you have better pitching staffs, but those staffs concentrate a higher percentage of their innings with their best pitchers. However, offense in the postseason actually relies more on home runs than it does in the regular season. Looking at the past five years, compare the regular-season totals for runs per game, at-bats per home run and batting average to the postseason totals for those categories:

The average runs per game has been lower in four of the five postseasons, but the rate of home runs has been higher in three of the five postseasons and higher overall. Batting average, however, has been lower in all five postseasons. There are fewer runs because there are fewer hits, not fewer home runs.

Here's another way to look at it. The percentage of runs that score via home runs:

If 2017, the season with the second-most home runs in history, is any indication of how the 2019 postseason will unfold, then the long ball will drive scoring even more.

Home runs are the most important plays of the postseason

At thebaseballgauge.com website, there is a statistic tracked that it calls championship Win Probability Added -- basically, the most important plays of the postseason, factoring in game, series and specific score information at the time of the play. The biggest play last year was Yasiel Puig 's three-run homer in Game 7 of the National League Championship Series that turned a 2-1 Dodgers lead into a decisive 5-1 edge in the sixth inning, a play given a CWPA score of .127. Puig's hit improved the Dodgers' chances of winning the World Series by 12.7 percent (because it basically guaranteed them a trip to the World Series).

Of the top 10 plays in the 2018 postseason, six were home runs.

How about 2017? The top play was Jose Altuve 's three-run homer in Game 5 of the World Series, turning a 7-4 Astros deficit in the fifth inning into a tie game. Six of the 10 most important plays that postseason were home runs.

And 2016? The top play was Rajai Davis' clutch two-run home run in the bottom of the eighth inning of Game 7 for the Indians against the Cubs, tying the game and giving Cleveland hope. Ben Zobrist's go-ahead double in the 10th inning was No. 2. The top 10 plays that postseason were all in Game 7 of the World Series, including home runs from Dexter Fowler and David Ross.

What about 2015? Top play honors goes to Alex Gordon for his game-tying home run in the ninth inning of Game 1 of the World Series. That saved the day as the Royals would eventually win that game in extra innings. Three of the top 10 overall were home runs.

And in 2014? The most important play was the final one of Game 7 of the World Series: Madison Bumgarner getting Salvador Perez to pop out with the tying run at third base. In this year, none of the top 10 plays were home runs -- mostly because eight of the top 10 came from Game 7 and there were no home runs in that game.

Still not convinced? There were 33 postseason games in 2018. Eliminate the 10 in which teams hit the same number of home runs, and the team that hit more home runs went 19-4 in the other 23 games.

Nothing against small ball or four-hit rallies or driving in the runner from second with two outs -- those can and will still be important aspects of winning -- but in the postseason you win by hitting home runs.

Digging into the 2019 home run numbers

The top five home run teams in 2019 -- the Yankees, Twins, Astros, Dodgers and A's -- all made the playoffs. Seven of the top 10 home runs teams made it to the tournament. The Yankees and Twins topped 300 home runs and the Astros and Dodgers also surpassed the previous single-season team record, set last year by the Yankees.

The only two playoff teams not to rank in the top half of the majors in home runs are the Rays and Cardinals -- and both still topped 200 home runs, a total only one team reached back in 2014. The Cardinals hit 200 home runs for just the sixth time in franchise history while the Rays hit the second most in franchise history. All 10 playoff teams can hit the ball over the fence.

Not all playoff teams played the same set of opponents, however. I was curious to see which teams pumped up their home run totals against bad teams -- especially in the American League, where the split between good and bad teams created a deeply divided league. Perhaps not surprisingly, the Twins benefited from beating up on the pitching staffs of the White Sox, Royals and Tigers. Here is each team's rate of at-bats per home run against teams above .500 and below .500 (through Friday):

The Twins have hit .287/.354/.532 against bad teams and .248/.318/.443 against good teams. Their high-powered offense looks a little less imposing when viewed in this context. True, the Astros and Yankees also decline, but not to the same extent. The Braves actually hit a little better against good teams (although they hit just .216/.251/.366 in six games against the Dodgers).

Here are nine more numbers to consider:

• Hitting velocity is important and maybe more so in October. Of the teams with the nine highest home run rates against pitches of 95-plus mph, seven of them made the playoffs. The top six in wOBA against 95-plus all made the playoffs. Here are the playoff teams against 95-plus, sorted by wOBA:

Dodgers: .279/.368/.541, 5.3% HR rate
Twins: .299/.377/.510, 4.4% HR rate
Yankees: .283/.357/.500, 5.2% HR rate
Cardinals: .276/.351/.488, 4.3% HR rate
Nationals: .271/.365/.457, 3.1% HR rate
Braves: .266/.358/.466, 4.2% HR rate
A's: .233/.335/.422, 3.6% HR rate
Astros: .237/.335/.409, 3.5% HR rate
Brewers: .221/.322/.394, 3.9% HR rate
Rays: .221/.313/.365, 2.8% HR rate

Note in particular that the Astros weren't that impressive against hard stuff.

• Similarly, here are the 10 batters in the postseason with the highest home run rates against 95-plus: Max Muncy (13.2%), Joc Pederson (12.3%), Nelson Cruz (11.0%), Paul DeJong (10.7%), Dexter Fowler (8.6%), Freddie Freeman (8.3%), Jose Altuve (7.7%), George Springer (7.6%), Yasmani Grandal (6.7%), Josh Donaldson (6.5%).

That's just home run rate. If we sort by overall wOBA against pitches thrown 95-plus, Cruz, Pederson and Kolten Wong rank 1-2-3 in the majors, with Muncy, Fowler, Freeman and Alex Bregman in the top 10.

• Who struggles against big velocity? Houston's Josh Reddick hit .140/.220/.200 with no home runs. Tommy Pham, Michael Brantley and Lorenzo Cain also didn't hit a single home run against 95-plus, although all three hit for a decent batting average. Here are some other interesting names who struggled against 95-plus:

Paul Goldschmidt, .140/.194/.291, 4 HR in 86 ABs
Matt Chapman: .175/.305/.388, 4 HR in 80 ABs
Gary Sanchez: .217/.262/.333, 2 HR in 60 ABs
Didi Gregorius: .123/.138/.228, 2 HR in 57 ABs
Corey Seager: .250/.324/.433, 1 HR in 60 ABs

Acuña is also an interesting guy to watch here. He was the ultimate hit-or-miss against big velo: He hit .184, although with seven home runs in 125 at-bats.

• Who gives up home runs? Looking at pitchers with at least 100 innings, the three with the highest home run rates are all Yankees: CC Sabathia, Domingo German and J.A. Happ. German is already suspended for the postseason, however, and Sabathia will likely pitch out of the bullpen. Also ranking among the 10 worst among the playoff pitchers: Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw. Obviously, both are otherwise tough to hit -- Verlander allowed a .172 average and Kershaw .223 -- but they are vulnerable to the home run.

• On the other end of the spectrum are the starters who are stingy with the long ball. Charlie Morton, Mike Soroka and Jake Odorizzi rank 1-2-3 in this area. Morton, who will start the wild-card game for the Rays, allowed just 15 home runs in 194⅔ innings. Soroka has allowed just 13 in 169⅔ innings. Jack Flaherty struggled early with the home run, but one reason for his second-half dominance is he has cut way down on the long ball, with just five in 14 starts since the All-Star break.

• Among relievers, Milwaukee's Josh Hader has fanned a remarkable 16.4 batters per nine innings, but he has allowed 14 home runs in 74⅔ innings. He has been much better in September after struggling in July and August when he allowed seven home runs and .250/.315/.560 battling while blowing five saves.

The Cardinals' Andrew Miller had that monster postseason for Cleveland in 2016, but he has also been vulnerable, with 11 home runs in 54 innings. That's one reason manager Mike Shildt has deployed him in short stints as he has made 72 appearances for those 54 innings. The Cardinals' bullpen has been very good overall, however, and has the lowest home run rate -- tied with Oakland -- of the playoff teams.

At the bottom of that list? Not surprisingly, the Nationals' wretched pen that ranked 25th in the majors with a 3.9 percent home run rate. But note the team just ahead of them at 24th: the Astros. Roberto Osuna (2.77 ERA), Ryan Pressly (2.36 ERA) and Will Harris (1.51 ERA) have been an excellent 1-2-3 punch at the back end, but if A.J. Hinch has to dig into his second-tier relievers such as Hector Rondon, Chris Devenski and Josh James, that group is more vulnerable to the home run.

• Of course, one reason Astros relievers have allowed so many home runs is their home park. The Astros and their opponents have hit 55 more home runs at Minute Maid than when playing at the other team's park. The Astros have allowed a home run every 21.1 at-bats at home, but just every 27.7 at-bats on the road.

Minute Maid has the sixth-highest home run factor in the majors in 2019 -- although not the highest of the 10 parks in the postseason. That actually belongs to Nationals Park. Here's an odd stat: Yankee Stadium has actually not played as a home run park this season, ranking 25th in the majors in home run factor. The Yankees and their opponents have hit 257 home runs at Yankee Stadium, but 295 on the road. Your 2019 home run factors:

Nationals Park: 1.26
Minute Mark Park: 1.21
Dodger Stadium: 1.11
Miller Park: 1.04
SunTrust Park: 1.03
Target Field: 0.87
Yankee Stadium: 0.85
Oakland Coliseum: 0.84
Busch Stadium: 0.81

• Finally, here are six under-the-radar sluggers to watch:

Twins catcher Mitch Garver actually leads the majors in home run rate at 8.7 percent, slugging 31 home runs in 308 at-bats.

Teammate Miguel Sano is third in home run rate, with 34 in 378 at-bats. He's all or nothing with his 36 percent strikeout rate, but he's averaging a big bomb every 11 at-bats.

Springer's season has sort of been lost in the Bregman/Verlander/Gerrit Cole spotlight, but he has mashed a career-high 38 home runs and has 11 home runs in 32 career postseason games -- including nine in his past 15 going back to the 2017 World Series.

Oh, and teammate Jose Altuve has been red hot in the second half, hitting .320 with 20 home runs, eight in the majors since the All-Star break.

A's shortstop Marcus Semien has been a surprise power source with 33 on the season -- 19 in the second half.

Rays outfielder Austin Meadows made the All-Star team, but has been even better in the second half with 21 home runs.

Maybe those guys will prove to be October heroes. Or maybe it will be the MVP candidates, Bellinger and Bregman and Anthony Rendon. Or, in the year of the long ball, it could be anybody. After all, it does seems like every player can mash one over the fence these days.

Stats through Friday's games.

Whether you are a die-hard fan who has been following every pitch since Opening Day or playing catch-up as the 2019 MLB postseason begins, the start of October means the best time of the baseball season is ahead of us.

Will anyone keep this month from belonging to the Houston Astros? Can the Los Angeles Dodgers finally win it all after two straight World Series losses? Is this the year the Yankees return to the top of the baseball universe? Or will a surprising story overcome the three superteams that have dominated the season?

As 10 teams enter the playoffs with hopes of a World Series run, we enlisted ESPN.com's Bradford Doolittle, Sam Miller, Jeff Passan and David Schoenfield to provide odds for every matchup, players to watch, scouting reports, predictions and much more.

Jump to each postseason team:
NL: Dodgers | Braves | Cardinals | Nationals | Brewers
AL: Astros | Yankees | Twins | Athletics | Rays

October overview

World Series odds by team

(Odds from Bradford Doolittle's MLB projection system)

Houston Astros 33%

Los Angeles Dodgers 26%

New York Yankees 11%

Washington Nationals 9%

Minnesota Twins 7%

St. Louis Cardinals 5%

Atlanta Braves 3%

Oakland Athletics 3%

Tampa Bay Rays 2%

Milwaukee Brewers 1%

ESPN.com expert October rankings

1. Astros (No. 1 lineup | No. 1 pitching staff)

2. Dodgers (No. 3 lineup | No. 2 pitching)

3. Yankees (No. 2 lineup | No. 5 pitching)

4. Twins (No. 4 lineup | No. 7 pitching)

5. Nationals (No. 6 lineup | No. 4 pitching)

6. Braves (No. 5 lineup | No. 9 pitching)

7. A's (No. 7 lineup | No.8 pitching)

8. Rays (No. 9 lineup | No. 3 pitching)

9. Cardinals (No. 10 lineup | No. 6 pitching)

10. Brewers (No. 8 lineup | No. 10 pitching)

National League wild-card game

Brewers at Nationals (8 ET, Tuesday on TBS)

Sure, the Brewers would have preferred to have won the division, but in one way it's beneficial the way everything unfolded on Sunday as they were able to rest all their best relievers -- most notably Josh Hader -- for Tuesday's wild-card game. The pitching staff will have to come up big, because you have to think Max Scherzer -- with Stephen Strasburg a good bet to appear in relief given the shaky relief corps of the Nationals -- will be stingy with the runs. It was the pitching that carried the Brewers through their September surge with the best ERA in the majors.

Milwaukee Brewers

89-73 | NL wild card | 1% World Series odds

Odds by round

Wild-card round: 39% vs. Nationals

NLDS: 27% vs. Dodgers

NLCS: 42% vs. Cardinals, 35% vs. Braves

World Series: 34% vs. Yankees, 21% vs. Astros, 41% vs. Twins, 43% vs. A's, 43% vs. Rays

What they do better than everyone else: The Brewers are so consistently difficult to explain or project that it's hard to say exactly what they are doing that's so successful. What we can say is that after three years of this, Craig Counsell, David Stearns and their Milwaukee colleagues see something the rest of us don't. It surely has something to do with breaking the game down into micro-situations, leveraging the available talent to navigate each situation in the most efficient way possible, and the front office making sure that Counsell has the right tools with which to manage as many of those situations as possible. -- Doolittle

One flaw that could doom them: As Forrest Gump might say: Sometimes there just aren't enough rocks. The Brewers tore through September with a roster weakened by Christian Yelich's injury, mostly thanks to a run-prevention unit that featured 20 pitchers with at least one inning pitched in September alone, only one of whom (Jordan Lyles) averaged even five innings per outing. Obviously, Counsell won't have that many arms with which to work on a September roster -- though he can keep on in the same vein in the NL wild-card game. However, if Milwaukee survives the Nationals, will Counsell have enough arms to match up with the Dodgers? -- Doolittle

Their Mr. Excitement: Well, their Mr. Excitement is out for the playoffs with a fracture kneecap. So let's go with rookie second baseman Keston Hiura. Everyone loves rookies and with Christian Yelich out, Hiura is the team's best hitter, a line drive smokin' machine with surprising over-the-fence power for his size. -- Schoenfield

Their best player you've never heard of: Pick a set-up reliever, any set-up reliever. The Brewers, as they did last year, have remade their bullpen on the fly, with relief aces emerging out of failed turns in the rotation, little noticed trade deadline pickups, and previously undistinguished resumes. Freddy Peralta and Brent Suter are options here, but Drew Pomeranz wins it: His career seemed endangered after a 6.08 ERA with Boston last year, and he was nearly as bad after the Giants gave him one more chance in the starting rotation this season. When San Francisco moved him to the bullpen he picked up 2 mph on his fastball; with Milwaukee, he's added one more. He has faced 48 batters in September and struck out more than half of them, walking only one, allowing a .152/.167/.283 slash line and a 2.03 ERA. -- Miller

Their season in a game: The Brewers, paradoxically, had an MVP candidate in the heart of their lineup but won far more of their games when he wasn't playing: They were 67-63 when Yelich played, 22-10 when he didn't. They also won, usually by the skin of their teeth, with a run differential that was negative right up until the final week of the season, and which ended up about 100 runs behind the Cubs. And more than any team in the NL, they asked for only four or five innings from the starting pitcher. The game: a 4-3 win over Miami, Sept. 10. The Brewers were 46% likely to win that game when Yelich fouled a ball off his knee and had to be removed. They managed to win anyway, despite getting fewer hits, drawing fewer walks and striking out more often than the Marlins. Their starter went four innings; their bullpen was nails. -- Miller

Passan's Inside Intel: The suspicion over the staying power of NL Central teams isn't limited to the Cardinals -- and that goes double for a Brewers team missing Yelich, and with a hobbled Lorenzo Cain and on-the-mend Ryan Braun. "Without their best player, I find it very difficult [to believe they advance deep into the playoffs], even though they've been incredibly resilient," one executive said. "I go back to the quality of the teams they played down the stretch. They didn't play the Cardinals. They finished with a dying Cubs team, the Reds, the Pirates, the Rockies. That doesn't mean anything other than they finished out their schedule incredibly well. But there's a guy named Scherzer. I don't care how hot you are."

The Brewers blitzed the postseason on the back of pitching that showed up in September after a three-month-long absence. Their June, July and August ERAs hovered between 4.86 and 4.92. In September: 3.01. As good as their starters were, their bullpen's dominance was as shocking as it was acute. In 66⅔ innings, the five-headed monster of Peralta, Suter, Pomeranz, Junior Guerra and closer Josh Hader struck out 97 (more than 13 per nine innings), walked 11 and posted a 1.76 ERA.

In the wild-card game, a scout who focused on the Brewers recently said, "I know the industry says you should start [Brandon] Woodruff. I'm telling you, if they start a guy like Suter or Gio [Gonzalez] -- the Nationals crush fastballs and struggle a lot more with changeups and change-of-pace guys. The only guy in their lineup who makes true adjustments is [Anthony] Rendon. You could basically eliminate five or six of the guys in their lineup with a change-of-pace guy. Once you get into the Nationals' bullpen, you have a shot -- though that bullpen may consist of [Stephen] Strasburg or [Patrick] Corbin." ... Woodruff will get the start, though he's not likely to be in there very long. He missed nearly two months because of an oblique strain and just came back in late September, not even reaching 40 pitches in either of his two starts.

Washington Nationals

93-69 | NL wild card | 9% World Series odds

Odds by round

Wild-card round: 61% vs. Brewers

NLDS: 40% vs. Dodgers

NLCS: 61% vs. Cardinals, 51% vs. Braves

World Series: 51% vs. Yankees, 34% vs. Astros. 57% vs. Twins, 59% vs. A's, 59% vs. Rays

What they do better than everyone else: The Nationals didn't have baseball's highest-scoring offense, but they did perhaps have its most diverse. And that diversity of options could serve Dave Martinez's club well in October. With NL MVP candidate Anthony Rendon leading the way, the Nats ranked second in senior circuit scoring despite ranking "just" sixth in homers. Washington was second in on-base percentage, next to last in strikeouts, second in steals and third on average. Home runs are important, and Washington certainly has power threats, beginning with Rendon and Juan Soto. But perhaps no other NL team has more ways to beat you on offense. -- Doolittle

One flaw that could doom them: Relief pitching has been a problem for Washington all season and the Nats enter the playoffs with a bullpen ERA closer to 6.00 than 5.00, one of the worst marks ever for an October participant. Even reliable closer Sean Doolittle has wavered at times during the second half, perhaps because of a heavy early workload. Who is going to step up? Fernando Rodney? Daniel Hudson? Wander Suero? The good thing for the Nats is that given the randomness of the playoffs and the volatility of relievers, anything can happen over the next few weeks. Given Washington's powerhouse rotation, if two or three relievers get hot, look out. -- Doolittle

Their Mr. Excitement: Trea Turner isn't their best player -- that's MVP candidate Anthony Rendon -- but he's their most exciting, setting the table at the top of the lineup with his blazing speed and a little pop. The defensive metrics say he's had a below-average season in the field, but he can certainly make the acrobatic play. -- Schoenfield

Their best player you've never heard of: Center fielder Victor Robles didn't appear in the majors as a fully formed offensive force, as many his top-prospect contemporaries have. But his defense, after some early-season sloppiness, has been nearly as impressive as Keston Hiura's or Fernando Tatis' hitting. Robles led all major league outfielders in Statcast's Outs Above Average, by a lot: Only seven other outfielders reached double digits at all, while Robles was at 21 extra outs. At Baseball-Reference, he led all major leaguers in defensive WAR. -- Miller

Their season in a game: The Nationals' bullpen is, you've heard, bad. It's worse than that: They have the fifth-highest bullpen ERA since modern bullpen usage took over in 1988, and the other four teams averaged 99 losses. But the Nationals are tied for the second-most runs in the NL this year, and their top three starters are all among the 15 or so best starting pitchers in the majors. The game: a 10-4 victory over Miami on Sept. 21. Stephen Strasburg threw seven shutout innings and led 4-0 when he departed. He got a no-decision, the lead blown just one out after the bullpen took over. The Nationals won anyway, with a six-run inning. -- Miller

Passan's Inside Intel: "I don't think many people realize it," said one scout who saw the Nationals recently, "but they can really hit." He's not wrong. Rendon should finish third in MVP voting. Soto is going to find himself there sooner than later. Turner is a righteous third banana in a lineup. Howie Kendrick is slashing .344/.395/.572 in more than 350 plate appearances. Since joining the Nationals, Asdrubal Cabrera has been reborn: .323/.404/.565 in nearly 150 PA. Add in Adam Eaton regularly in right field, Ryan Zimmerman and Matt Adams providing support for Kendrick at first, Yan Gomes and Kurt Suzuki at catcher, the underappreciated Robles and Baby Shark Gerardo Parra as a do-everything bench bat, and the Nationals have the sort of lineup that can really jump on left-handed starters -- three of whom they'll see in Clayton Kershaw, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Rich Hill if they can get past Milwaukee. ... "I'll take Rendon and Soto over any other duo in the NL," another scout said. "[Ronald] Acuna and [Freddie] Freeman. [Cody] Bellinger and [Max] Muncy. Give me Rendon and Soto."

Multiple scouts who have seen Max Scherzer recently don't exactly disagree with the Nationals' decision to start him in the wild-card game. "I just hope Davey has a quick hook," one scout said, "because he hasn't looked the same." ... While the Hunter Strickland and Roenis Elias deadline acquisitions didn't exactly work out, Hudson has been revelatory for the Nationals. "I'm not sure they make the playoffs without him," one evaluator said. Hudson served as closer for most of September, in which he threw nine scoreless appearances. His totals with Washington: 25 innings, 23-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 1.44 ERA. ... Among Hudson, Doolittle, Tanner Rainey and soon-to-be-long-man Austin Voth, the Nationals' beleaguered bullpen offers at least some salvation. It still doesn't compare to that of the Dodgers or Brewers, let alone the elite pens in the AL. ... "Victor Robles is going to be a star," one scout said of the Nationals' rookie center fielder. "He's already good enough to win a Gold Glove. If they get past the Brewers, he's going to save some runs against the Dodgers."

American League wild-card game

Rays at Athletics (8 ET, Wednesday on ESPN)

This is an underrated pitching matchup as Charlie Morton, who has been one of the best starters in the American League all season, faces Sean Manaea, who is 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA in his five starts since returning from last season's shoulder surgery. It will be interesting to see how quickly both managers go to their bullpens. Morton basically goes to 100 pitches -- usually six innings or so for him. Manaea has topped out at 96 pitches.

Two bullpen arms to keep an eye on: A's rookie lefties Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk. Luzardo debuted in September and Puk in late August, but both have already pitched themselves into key roles.

Hot hitters to watch: Oakland's Matt Olson has nine home runs in September; teammate Marcus Semien has hit .350 with eight home runs; Rays outfielder Austin Meadows hit .378 with nine home runs in September.

Tampa Bay Rays

96-66 | AL wild card | 2% World Series odds

Odds by round

Wild-card round: 46% vs. A's

ALDS: 28% vs. Astros

ALCS: 41% vs. Yankees, 47% vs. Twins

World Series: 29% vs. Dodgers, 41% vs. Braves, 51% vs. Cardinals, 57% vs. Brewers, 41% vs. Nationals

What they do better than everyone else: In a 2019 homer-happy context, the Rays' pitching staff keeps the ball in the yard. Tampa Bay has allowed the fewest homers in baseball with a style that works at the Tropicana Dome and away from it. The Rays are neck-and-neck with the A's for fewest home homers allowed, but also have given up fewer road homers than any other AL club. In possible playoff opponents New York (third overall in runs via the home run), Minnesota (fourth), Houston (seventh) and Oakland (11th), the Rays will be seeing offenses fueled by the long ball. If the Rays keep it in the park, their defense turn will turn it into outs. -- Doolittle

One flaw that could doom them: The Rays are easily the weakest offensive team on the AL side of the playoff bracket. They will need to keep scores low to win. Tampa Bay's collective OPS this season was just a shade better than the MLB average. However, against the other four AL postseason teams, their OPS was a combined .678, with an unsightly slash line of .228/.292/386. So while the Rays' strategy may involve keeping the score low, they are going to have to score a few runs, and they'll have to do it amid the harsher run-scoring environment of October baseball. -- Doolittle

Their Mr. Excitement: He's not at the plate, but Kevin Kiermaier was finally healthy again after a couple injury-plagued seasons. He still runs everything down in center field, can swipe a bag and pop an occasional home run. -- Schoenfield

Their best player you've never heard of: Reliever Nick Anderson had three of the most dominant months any pitcher had this season: In April he struck out 27 while unintentionally walking zero in 13 innings; in August he struck out 22 while unintentionally walking zero in 12 innings; and in September he struck out 19 while unintentionally walking one in 10 innings. He's been a little prone to homers and his May was a disaster, but this is the pitcher with the sixth-best FIP in baseball this season, and his strikeout rate with the Rays -- 52% -- bests the franchise single-season record by 10 percentage points. -- Miller

Their season in a game: Because of the way they use their pitching staff -- openers, quick hooks -- the Rays lead the majors by far in wins by their relief pitchers. They have the second most total relief appearances, the third most relief appearances of at least four outs, and the most relief appearances with zero days of rest. Because their bullpen is genuinely awesome-deep, flexible, just flat-out great, they are also tied for the best bullpen ERA in the majors, even while throwing 200 or so more innings than the typical team. The game that captures them: The 2-0 victory over Baltimore on Sept. 3. The anonymous journeyman reliever Andrew Kittredge started with a scoreless first, and a procession of dominant relievers (none making more than $1.3 million this year) followed with zero after zero, striking out 13 and walking nobody. Had this been a single starter pitching, his 9/5/0/0/0/13 pitching line would have produced the 12th highest game score in the majors this year. -- Miller

Passan's Inside Intel: The expectation is the Rays will go with Charlie Morton in the wild-card game, but one scout wonders if Tampa Bay should open with either Blake Snell or Tyler Glasnow, use Morton for the middle innings and then let manager Kevin Cash match up with a deep bullpen a batter at a time. ... "I would not want to play them," one scout said. "I was advancing them. They way they piece their bullpen together is ridiculous. I've seen Andrew Kittredge up in the second inning and seen him close. Chaz Roe pitched in the eighth inning one day and (Blake) Snell was struggling in the second and Roe picked him up. They don't work it conventionally. They've got (Brendan) McKay, who can give them some length. (Peter) Fairbanks is throwing hard. Kittredge is throwing hard. They've got sidearmers. (Nick) Anderson's got a 70(-grade on a scale of 20-to-80) breaking ball. Roe's slider. These guys have pieced together a very impressive group." ... One scout on Tyler Glasnow, who since coming off the injured list has struck out 21 in 12⅓ innings: "Glasnow looked unhittable." That's about right: In those four outings, opponents are slashing .119/.213/.262 against him.

Another scout on the Rays being the among the two lowest-scoring teams in the postseason field: "It's not a sexy lineup. But it is a team. There are guys that hit homers. There are guys that get on base. There are clutch guys." The clutch factor has manifested itself in 10 walk-off hits. A second scout's counterpoint: "Who's gonna drive in runs for them? There's just no one in that lineup that scares you. I don't think KC of old is who you comp them to. It's a deep lineup if they get rolling, but if they don't get rolling in one game, they're done." ... The answer of who's going to drive in runs: "Nobody talks about Austin Meadows. He's hitting .290 with 33 (homers)." And even better: Meadows has been a top-5 hitter in all of baseball over the past month, slashing .354/.443/.687.

Oakland Athletics

97-65 | AL wild card | 3% World Series odds

Odds by round

Wild-card round: 54% vs. Rays

ALDS: 28% vs. Astros

ALCS: 41% vs. Yankees. 47% vs. Twins

World Series: 29% vs. Dodgers, 41% vs. Braves, 51% vs. Cardinals, 57% vs. Brewers, 41% vs. Nationals

What they do better than everyone else: Oakland's pitching staff as a whole really pounds the strike zone with fastballs. No team threw a higher rate of pitches in the zone this season, and no AL team threw a higher rate of fastballs. Their collective contact rate is also high, so that allows Oakland to put its third-ranked defensive efficiency to work. However, the Athletics' pitchers are one of the more fly ball-prone staffs, a design that works great at home, where the A's went 52-29. Alas, the Athletics are a wild-card team, so their home mastery can only go so far in the postseason. -- Doolittle

One flaw that could doom them: Oakland is susceptible to swing-and-miss pitchers, which is to say just about every hurler who sees action in October. The Athletics are baseball's most-disciplined team in terms of chase rate, so opposing pitchers generally stayed in the zone against them. Only three teams swung and missed more often than launch-angle-obsessed Oakland, and we'll have to see how this take-and-rake strategy plays out against superior staffs. During the season, Oakland's .714 OPS this season against power pitchers ranks behind every other postseason team except for wild-card opponent Tampa Bay. -- Doolittle

Their Mr. Excitement: Marcus Semien should finish in the top-five of the MVP voting after a superb two-way season that saw him bash over 80 extra-base hits and potentially win his first Gold Glove. -- Schoenfield

Their best player you've never heard of: Outfielder Mark Canha entered his age-30 season this year as a career .239/.305/.424 hitter; he didn't even start in last year's wild-card game against the Yankees. But since he returned in mid-May from a stint on the injured list, he has been one of baseball's dozen best hitters, moving from eighth in the A's lineup to the cleanup spot. He's a local product (high school in San Jose, college in Berkeley) who was acquired a few years ago when the Miami Marlins left him exposed in the Rule 5 draft, free to anybody who would merely promise to keep him on a big league roster for a year. -- Miller

Their season in a game: The three AL teams who struck out fewer batters than Oakland this year averaged more than 100 losses, but the A's have such a strong defense that their contact staff survived even this juiced-ball season. Oakland finished third in defensive efficiency -- the measure of how many batted balls they turned into outs -- and, despite a fly ball staff, kept the ball in the yard, especially at home. Consider Mike Fiers' no-hitter against the Reds on May 7th: He struck out only six batters, tied for the fewest in a no-hitter since 2013, and "should" have allowed about four hits, according to Statcast. He even allowed one batted ball over the center field wall. But defense is a collaborative effort, and the A's defense is as significant as their pitching. -- Miller

Passan's Inside Intel: "They have a better chance to beat (the Astros) than New York," said a scout who recently saw the A's. "They have a better chance to beat them than anyone outside of the Dodgers." ... One scout sees benefits and detriments with the A's reliance on dynamic left-handed rookies Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk out of the bullpen. "I'm high on Puk and Luzardo -- and they've never pitched a game in October," he said. "It's tough to rely on young players. The moment is massive. There's only one game on TV. And they're in it. It's something the A's have consistently struggled with under Billy Beane -- and it's not his fault. The A's are always youthful, which is great, because every year in August and September you see them thrive, and it's due to them having a tremendous amount of youthful players. They're not tired."

"Count up their walk-off wins," one scout said, so we did: 10, tied with Tampa Bay for the most in the AL. "They battle you for 27 outs. They're deep through the lineup. That's where they're dangerous. And they're not afraid of Houston because they beat 'em six of eight times. I think Oakland is the only team that can keep Houston from the World Series." ... Sean Manaea, who's expected to play a pivotal role in the wild-card game, has blown away scouts as much as he has hitters in spite of a fastball with below-average velocity. "He's deceptive. He can command it. And he can spin it," said a scout who took in a recent start. "In today's game, everyone throws 95. A guy like Manaea can beat you with 90. He's an old-school pitcher. The guys you have to watch out for are the Manaeas."

NLDS: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves

The Braves won their most games since 2003, riding the big four of Freddie Freeman, Josh Donaldson, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies on offense and a solid pitching staff led by rookie Mike Soroka and free agent Dallas Keuchel. The bullpen additions at the trade deadline strengthened what had been a weakness. Acuna missed the last few games of the regular season, nursing a sore groin, and Freeman missed a few games the final week with a bone spur in his right elbow that has bothered him for two months. The Cardinals had to use second-half stud Jack Flaherty (0.91 ERA) to clinch the division title, but all is not lost: Flaherty can start Game 2 and, thanks to the 2-2-1 schedule, be back for Game 5 on full rest. The Cardinals' best chance of beating the Braves probably goes through two gems from Flaherty.

St. Louis Cardinals

91-71 | NL Central champs | 5% World Series odds

Odds by round

NLDS: 43% vs. Braves

NLCS: 32% vs. Dodgers, 58% vs. Brewers, 39% vs. Nationals

World Series: 41% vs. Yankees, 26% vs. Astros. 47% vs. Twins, 50% vs. A's, 50% vs. Rays

What they do better than everyone else: The Cardinals combine a somewhat old-school pitching design with a team defense that has gone from shaky to shimmering under Mike Shildt. The results have been hard to argue with and the keep-the-ball-in-play approach will be put to these test against the legion of long ball mashers in the postseason. St. Louis has been more solid than spectacular with its run prevention, with an error total that is one of the lowest team totals ever recorded. It's the type of thing that plays out over a long stretch of games, but how will that no-mistakes thing play in a short series? -- Doolittle

One flaw that could doom them: The St. Louis batsmen have been consistently befuddled by off-speed and breaking pitches, leading to an offense that has underachieved at the top line and been maddeningly inconsistent to boot. Part of this is by design -- the Cardinals have selected more for run prevention than run creation as they've doled out playing time. But none of this explains the sub-forecast numbers from Paul Goldschmidt and Matt Carpenter, the latter of whom lost his everyday spot. If Kolten Wong's sore hammy lingers, Carpenter may be back in the harness. So next week would be a good time for St. Louis' preordained sluggers to regress. Otherwise, it will be incumbent on the Redbirds' run-prevention units to keep scores low. -- Doolittle

Their Mr. Excitement: I have to break my rule here and pick a pitcher, because Jack Flaherty is pitching right now like Bob Gibson in 1968 or Pedro Martinez in 1999 or -- OK, maybe I'm getting carried away with those comparisons, but that's how dominant Flaherty has been in the second half. Here's another one: Orel Hershiser in 1988. Like Hershiser, Flaherty could carry the Cardinals on his back all the way to a title. -- Schoenfield

Their best player you've never heard of: It's the Cardinals' annual Mid-Round Draft Pick Who Becomes Incomprehensibly Valuable! Tommy Edman was ranked just 12th among Cardinals prospects before the season began but ended up taking playing time from Matt Carpenter at third base and finishing with 3.9 WAR -- more than Kris Bryant, Manny Machado, Josh Bell, Jose Altuve -- in just 92 games. He's fast, plays great defense at third or second and hit more homers in a half-season in the majors than he had hit at any minor league level. -- Miller

Their season in a game: The Cardinals' infield defense, especially since Edman took the bulk of playing time from Carpenter, has been extraordinary: They have the best defensive efficiency on ground balls this year, and all four everyday infielders -- Kolten Wong, Paul DeJong, Edman and Goldschmidt -- rate among the league's best at their positions by defensive runs saved. That has helped the Cardinals' ground ball-heavy staff outperform its FIP, especially Dakota Hudson, who leads all qualifying starters in ground ball rate. When the Cardinals beat the Giants 10-0 on Sept. 5, Hudson struck out only two batters. He got 11 ground balls (against six flies and three line drives), and those 11 ground balls produced 10 groundouts. -- Miller

Passan's Inside Intel: No team comes into the NL playoffs with a hotter rotation than the Cardinals -- and that goes beyond Flaherty, who, one scout said, "is the fourth-best pitcher in the playoffs behind [Justin] Verlander, [Gerrit] Cole and [Max] Scherzer." Hudson, who could get the Game 1 nod, "throws a really heavy ball and isn't afraid to work inside." He has thrown the fourth-most inside pitches in the NL this season, according to Tru Media. ... "Their offense is a lot like the Rays'," said one scout who saw them recently. "No one's a real threat, like [Mike] Trout or [Christian] Yelich, but no one is a zero."

There are quite a few skeptics of the Cardinals despite the recent success of their starters. While they had the best rotation ERA in the big leagues in September, their 4.54 bullpen ERA this month was 19th in baseball. Among playoff teams, only Washington was worse. "They won a weak division," said another scout who advanced them recently. "Cincinnati wasn't good. Pittsburgh wasn't good. The last six weeks the Cubs weren't very good. [The Cardinals] got away with mistakes that good teams won't make." ... "What's going to help them," the scout advancing St. Louis said, "is they don't kick the ball around." The Cardinals' 66 errors were the fewest in baseball -- less than half of the major league-worst 133 they committed a year ago.

Atlanta Braves

97-65 | NL East champs | 3% World Series odds

Odds by round

NLDS: 58% vs. Cardinals

NLCS: 36% vs. Dodgers, 49% vs. Nationals, 65% vs. Brewers

World Series: 48% vs. Yankees, 32% vs. Astros. 54% vs. Twins, 59% vs. A's, 59% vs. Rays

What they do better than everyone else: The Braves won 28 one-run games this season and went 13 games over .500 in such contests, easily the highest marks among all postseason clubs. Of course, this is a good news/bad news trait. Winning close games is certainly important during the playoffs, but the fact that the Braves were good at it during the regular season tells us little about whether they can keep excelling at this most volatile of categories. However, at least some of there good one-run record traces back to performing in the clutch: Atlanta led the NL in run differential in high-leverage situations. -- Doolittle

One flaw that could doom them: The bullpen has been a roller coaster for the Braves for much of the season, even after they picked up Chris Martin, Shane Greene and Mark Melancon during the season. Things have looked better during September, when Atlanta has posted a 3.60 bullpen ERA with Melancon locking down the ninth-inning role. Greene has pitched well of late, and lefty Sean Newcomb seems to be an emerging weapon after being demoted from the rotation early in the season. However promising the trends are, there are still fewer swing-and-miss dominators relative to MLB's other playoff teams. It remains a concern. -- Doolittle

Their Mr. Excitement: Ronald Acuña Jr. hit 41 home runs and stole 37 bases. He plays with the flair and the enthusiasm you would expect from a 21-year-old. Really, call him exciting doesn't do Acuna justice. We need to invent a more descriptive adjective for him. -- Schoenfield

Their best player you've never heard of: Only one left-handed batter has a bigger platoon split in his career than Matt Joyce -- it's Joc Pederson, if you're curious -- but he's always ready to mash a righty, even off the bench. This year, the Braves got Joyce the platoon advantage in 89% of his plate appearances and he rewarded them with the majors' seventh-best OBP, minimum 200 plate appearances. He started only eight games in the first half, but since mid-August he has been starting most days, giving the Braves a fifth good hitter. -- Miller

Their season in a game: The Braves' lineup is impressively top-heavy: They have four of the top 35 hitters in baseball, by Baseball-Reference's WAR, while their fifth-best hitter ranks just 228th. The clustering of Acuña, Albies, Freeman and Donaldson is offensive Gummiberry juice at the top of the order, with those four averaging more than 110 runs and 100 RBIs apiece. When the Braves beat the Twins, 12-7, on Aug. 6, those four had 11 hits, scored 10 runs, drove in eight, collectively hit for the cycle and even stole two bases. Their slash line for the day: .579/.636/1.053. The rest of the lineup, even with a DH instead of the pitcher hitting, batted .208/.240/.208, but the Braves' top four were still enough to batter a playoff team. -- Miller

Passan's Inside Intel: Scouts who have seen third baseman Josh Donaldson recently rave about his focus. "Never takes a pitch off," one said. His fielding, the scout said, is elite, and his bat this season has been awfully good, too: .259/.379/.521 with 37 home runs, 94 RBIs and 100 walks. He figures to cash in big on a three-year deal this winter. ... What makes the Braves capable of beating anyone? "A healthy [Ronald] Acuna, [Ozzie] Albies, [Freddie] Freeman and Donaldson," one scout said. A groin injury sidelined Acuna for the final half-week of the season, and Freeman has fought painful bone spurs in his elbow. Both are expected to be ready for Game 1 on Thursday against the Cardinals.

After months of mediocrity, Mike Foltynewicz's results in September started to resemble the All-Star version of himself from 2018. The stuff, however, is not the same. "He's still a power guy," said a scout who saw his most recent start Saturday, "but he's not going to blow you away like he did last year." He is lined up to start Game 2, with rookie Mike Soroka slated for Game 3, due to his road ERA coming in at less than half of his ERA at SunTrust Park (1.55 vs. 4.16). ... Blunt assessment on the Braves' arms from a scout: "I don't think their pitching is enough. I definitely think their bats are. If Folty deals, they might have a shot. But I don't love the back end of the bullpen." The combined September numbers for their three deadline bullpen acquisitions, closer Melancon and setup men Greene and Martin: 25 innings, 15 hits, three walks, 22 strikeouts and a 1.80 ERA.

NLDS: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. wild-card winner

The Dodgers won a franchise-record 106 games, but perhaps no team faces more pressure after two straight World Series defeats. The lefty power-hitting trio of Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson and Max Muncy combined for 118 home runs, but two rookies, catcher Will Smith and second baseman Gavin Lux, could play a huge part in their October success. Of course, it might ultimately come down to the two longtime Dodgers finally putting it all together in the postseason: Clayton Kershaw and Kenley Jansen.

Los Angeles Dodgers

106-56 | NL West champs | 26% World Series odds

Odds by round

NLDS: 73% vs. Brewers, 60% vs. Nats

NLCS: 70% vs. Cardinals. 64% vs. Braves

World Series: 63% vs. Yankees, 44% vs. Astros. 69% vs. Twins, 71% vs. A's, 71% vs. Rays

What they do better than everyone else: The Dodgers own the NL's best fielding-independent ERA because they are good at all three components of that metric. L.A. ranks second among senior circuit teams in strikeouts, and allowed both the fewest walks and fewest home runs. It's a pretty good combination. Add to this the fact that the Dodgers also led the NL in defensive efficiency, and you have a complete run-prevention formula. Indeed, no team gave up fewer runs this season, and L.A. led the NL in both home and road ERA. The Dodgers can hit, too, but their run prevention is what marks them as NL favorites. -- Doolittle

One flaw that could doom them: The default answer here all season has been closer Kenley Jansen, but that's kind of obvious and he's been throwing well lately, so let's pick on the starting pitchers. The Dodgers own -- by far -- baseball's best rotation ERA, but the numbers in September haven't been as sparkling. More important is who has been experiencing the down-ticks. Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw have not exactly been ace-like down the stretch, and Hyun-Jin Ryu has picked it up but is still not completely back to his first-half form. This is all probably nothing, but we've got to give Dodgers fans something to worry about. -- Doolittle

Their Mr. Excitement: Cody Bellinger is the favorite for MVP honors after one of the best seasons in Dodgers history. He not only bashes home runs, is a plus runner and plays a marvelous right field (while also filling in at first base and center field), but he looks ultra-cool doing it, with that upright stance as he crowds the plate and then unleashes one of the most unique swings in the game. -- Schoenfield

Their best player you've never heard of: The other other Will Smith is all but nonexistent on Google searches, but he was a hyped prospect entering the season, and after getting called up for good in early July he took over as the Dodgers' primary catcher. He has the second-highest launch angle in baseball this year, and, consequently, the 10th-highest HR/AB rate in the majors. -- Miller

Their season in a game: I'm not sure how many players you could randomly remove from the Dodgers' 40-man roster and still have a playoff team, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was more than a dozen. The Dodgers had 13 pitchers throw at least 25 innings with a better-than-average ERA, and 11 hitters bat at least 150 times with an above-average OPS. That extraordinary depth was probably most evident in a three-game series against the Rockies, capped off by a 6-3 victory over Colorado on June 23. Smith won it with a walk-off home run, the third game in a row in which a different rookie had a walk-off homer. Kenta Maeda started the game and went seven strong innings; the Dodgers are so deep he won't even make a postseason start. -- Miller

Passan's Inside Intel: After sitting Max Muncy against left-handed pitchers to start Games 1 and 2 of last year's World Series and Bellinger in Games 1, 2 and 5, the Dodgers are almost certain not to rely on platoons with their two best hitters this season. "They are clearly better against righties," one scout said. "But this idea that they can't hit lefties is bulls---. They can do damage against anyone. Bellinger and Muncy have killed lefties this year."

One scout believes the key not just to the Dodgers' postseason but the entire playoffs is Buehler. "He wants to be the guy," the scout said. "And he loves big games." Buehler, who had the worst ERA among Dodgers starters in September, spent his last start tinkering with mechanics. ... "I'm not sure any team is more effective at working in the upper part of the zone," another scout said. "It's hard because you want to lay off those pitches, but they do a great job of moving hitters' eye levels and sequencing."

The construction of the Dodgers' bullpen could vary from round to round, depending on the matchups they face. The certainties: closer Jansen, Maeda, Julio Urias and Pedro Baez. While Joe Kelly's undisclosed ailment that has kept him out since Sept. 18 (though he faced two batters and threw six pitches against the Giants on Sunday) is of concern, there are plenty of arms to choose from otherwise, chief among them rookies Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin. Other options include Casey Sadler, Adam Kolarek, Ross Stripling, Caleb Ferguson, Yimi Garcia and Josh Sborz.

ALDS: Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees

In the year of the home run, it's fitting that the two teams that cracked the 300 barrier will face each other in the ultimate Home Run Derby. The Twins had a record five players top 30 home runs, led by Nelson Cruz's 41. The Yankees have power up and down the lineup, with Gleyber Torres leading the team with 38. They also have Giancarlo Stanton back after he missed most of the season. Everyone will point to the Yankees' edge in the bullpen, but Minnesota's top three of Taylor Rogers, Trevor May and Tyler Duffey all had ERAs under 3.00, and veteran Sergio Romo has three World Series rings.

The cloud hanging over the Twins' franchise: They lost ALDS to the Yankees in 2003, 2004, 2009 and 2010, and the Twins have lost 13 straight playoffs games since the first game of the 2004 ALDS.

Minnesota Twins

101-61 | AL Central champs | 7% World Series odds

Odds by round

ALDS: 43% vs. Yankees

ALCS: 27% vs. Astros, 54% vs. A's, 54% vs. Rays

World Series: 31% vs. Dodgers, 46% vs. Braves, 53% vs. Cardinals, 60% vs. Brewers, 43% vs. Nationals

What they do better than everyone else: Since we're awarding the crown of best homer-hitting team to the Yankees, that makes it more difficult to nail down the Twins' standout trait. Across the board, everything the Twins do, the Yankees do a little better -- and the Astros' offense is better than both of them. But here's one for Minnesota: No team has played better away from home. The Twins have flown past the 50-win mark away from Target Field. Minnesota has dropped two out of three at both Houston and New York this season, but at least we know they will be comfortable playing in hostile territories. -- Doolittle

One flaw that could doom them: Because of injuries and performance dips, the Twins are really struggling to find functional starting pitching as the postseason dawns. Michael Pineda was rolling but was suspended by MLB. Jose Berrios has been solid down the stretch but not dominant. Jake Odorizzi has been pretty dominant but tweaked his hamstring recently. Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez have been getting bombed. Piecing all of this together, perhaps with bullpenning and/or use of an opener is going to be an enormous challenge for first-year manager Rocco Baldelli. Rookie surprise Randy Dobnak has thrown well and figures to be part of the solution in some capacity. -- Doolittle

Their Mr. Excitement: You could pick any of their record-setting five players who hit 30-plus home runs, especially with defensive whiz Byron Buxton out for the season. It seems weird to pick a 39-year-old designated hitter here, but Nelson Cruz feels like the focal point of this offense, a slugger who might have hit 50 if he hadn't missed 40 games. Don't forget: Cruz has a storied postseason history with 16 home runs in 41 games. -- Schoenfield

Their best player you've never heard of: A few things about Mitch Garver: His slugging percentage is the seventh-highest ever for a catcher, minimum 300 plate appearances; with 31 home runs in 311 at-bats, he had a HR/AB rate that only 11 big leaguers in history have ever surpassed in a season; he has the sixth-highest slugging percentage ever for a leadoff hitter (min. 100 PA in that spot); and he started the year as a 28-year-old backup catcher with seven career home runs. -- Miller

Their season in a game: The Twins have the highest fly ball rate in baseball and became the first team ever to hit 300 homers in a season. They are especially aggressive early in the count, have the lowest pitches/plate appearance among playoff teams, and often use a catcher with an extraordinary home run rate and zero career steals to lead off. And so, the game: a 16-7 win over the Orioles, April 20. The Twins hit 28 fly balls and only 13 grounders, and jumped on nine first pitches for two homers and two singles. Of course, they homered eight times. -- Miller

Passan's Inside Intel: "I think you're going to see this with a lot of teams," a scout said, "but it really goes for Minnesota: You can't give them fastballs. There's going to be so much spin and junk. They can hit it, but they just are so good at destroying fastballs, you can't give it to them." ... The key for the Twins, according to another scout: right-handed reliever Tyler Duffey. "He's turned into a real dude," the scout said. "They were kicking themselves after the [Ryan] Pressly deal (in which they traded him to Houston), but they might have a guy that's better." To wit: Until Saturday, Duffey hadn't allowed a run since July 23, spanning 26 outings. ... "I trust their [starting pitchers] to work into the fifth," the first scout said. "If the Yankees get a third time through the lineup, it's gonna be trouble." ... "You can't rely on working up in the zone against them," said a scout who recently advanced the Twins. "They will punish high pitches."

New York Yankees

103-59 | AL East champs | 11% World Series odds

Odds by round

ALDS: 57% vs. Twins

ALCS: 32% vs. Astros. 59% vs. A's, 59% vs. Rays

World Series: 37% vs. Dodgers, 52% vs. Braves, 59% vs. Cardinals, 65% vs. Brewers, 49% vs. Nationals

What they do better than everyone else: Despite their second-half battle with Minnesota for all-time supremacy in the single-season home runs category, no team mashes like the Bombers, especially a quasi-healthy version of this club. Even if Edwin Encarnacion can't go, the Yankees still would have at least a dozen healthy double-digit home run hitters to pick from in their playoff lineups. Giancarlo Stanton's season was wrecked by injury but, then again, he's probably looking to make something out his 2019 experience. Expect New York to live and die with the long ball as they've done all season during the year of the home run. -- Doolittle

One flaw that could doom them: The troubles of the Yankees' starting rotation this season have been puzzled over to a level that rates somewhere between overblown and hysterical. In a postseason context, the Yankees are set up to navigate around their rotation by letting them throw all-out for a couple of trips through opposing batting orders before Aaron Boone turns it over to his deep and intimidating bullpen. James Paxton is the only rotation member likely to be used as a traditional starter. Nevertheless, getting to the Yankees early and undermining the leveraged opportunities for Boone's bullpen is the best path to beating New York. -- Doolittle

Their Mr. Excitement: He's not the team MVP in 2019, but this has to be Aaron Judge. After missing most of May and June, he's finished strong with 15 home runs the final two months, so he can crush any mistake. Then there's the underrated aspect of his game: Judge is a terrific right fielder with range and a strong arm, a Gold Glover in the league if it didn't have Mookie Betts. Judge's first playoff series in 2017 was a rough one when he struck out 16 times in 20 at-bats against Cleveland, but he has seven home runs and a .627 slugging percentage in 18 career playoff games. -- Schoenfield

Their best player you've never heard of: In 2018, Gio Urshela hit .286/.326/.393-in Triple-A, for three different organizations. It's not clear he'd have appeared in a single game for the Yankees this year if not for a fluke diving injury to starting third baseman Miguel Andujar in the third game of the season. Urshela had one of the league's best line drive rates and the 17th best expected batting average (according to Statcast measures). If he had the 26 extra plate appearances needed to qualify, he would have finished fourth in the AL in batting average, batting .314/.355/.534 overall. Plays a solid third base, too, unlike the player whose unfortunate injury gave him his opportunity. -- Miller

Their season in a game: The three storylines about the Yankees this year: extraordinary depth; wildly outperforming any expectations from what has been, essentially, their second-string lineup for much of the year; extraordinary bullpen dominance, with four relievers averaging at least 12 Ks per nine innings (unprecedented) and a fifth, Zack Britton, whose ERA is under 2.00; and extraordinary power, with nearly two homers per game. Their game: a 5-2 win over San Diego on May 27. Both runs were allowed by their "bulk" reliever, David Hale; before and after him, Chad Green, Adam Ottavino, Tommy Kahnle, Britton and Aroldis Chapman threw five shutout innings, striking out nine and allowing three baserunners. Three Yankees homered, including Clint Frazier (starting in right field for the injured Aaron Judge), who drove in the Yankees' first run. Frazier was later replaced by Cameron Maybin, who drove in the final run. Their No. 9 hitter, Brett Gardner, homered too; he would hit 27 on the year. So much power, on the mound and at the plate. -- Miller

Passan's Inside Intel: For all of the Yankees' regular-season excellence and perseverance, scouts who have seen them recently believe they're vulnerable. "They are very beatable," one scout said. "I say that with all due respect to the guys they have injured. You can pitch to a lot of their guys. I was shocked at how much you can pitch to DJ LeMahieu. [Aaron] Judge and Gleyber [Torres], you can get both those guys out. [Edwin] Encarnacion is more of a mistake guy." ... Hold on. Pitch to LeMahieu, who is batting .331 and should get down-ballot MVP votes this season? "If you jam him inside and play him to pull," another scout concurred, "he'll get himself out." ... Another scout's slightly more sanguine take: "They have a great bullpen ... " Then he followed "... and they're going to get to it early. I think that could be a problem.

Losing [Domingo] German (to a domestic violence-related incident) is a huge factor for them. He was either a swingman to get them through 4-5-6 or he was going to start. They just don't have the depth in that rotation." ... There remain believers, including one front-office executive: "They won almost 105 games with the most players ever on the injured list. I don't bet against that."

ALDS: Houston Astros vs. wild-card winner

The Astros enter the postseason as the World Series favorite for obvious reasons and figure to have a big edge over either the Rays or A's here. Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke form an imposing rotation trio. The powerful offense ranked third in the majors in home runs, first in batting average and first in lowest strikeout rate. The bullpen had the third-best ERA in the majors. They ranked fourth in defensive runs saved. Alex Bregman is an MVP candidate and Michael Brantley and rookie slugger Yordan Alvarez provide help from the left side that the team lacked a year ago. It's a team without a weakness and it begins the postseason in better health than last season (although Carlos Correa's back is a concern).

Houston Astros

107-55 | AL West champs | 33% World Series odds

Odds by round

ALDS: 72% vs. A's, 72% vs. Rays

ALCS: 68% vs. Yankees, 73% vs. Twins

World Series: 56% vs. Dodgers, 68% vs. Braves, 74% vs. Cardinals, 79% vs. Brewers, 66% vs. Nationals

What they do better than everyone else: There are a lot of things the Astros do better than everybody else, but their rotation is the most fearsome part of the Houston dossier at the moment. Nationals fans might dispute whether Houston has the better playoff rotation, but no one can combine the track records of Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke with the kind of recent dominance that trio has shown. Sure, there could be a step down when Houston gets to its No. 4 but, then again, given the way rookie Jose Urquidy has thrown lately, concerns about Wade Miley might be irrelevant. -- Doolittle

One flaw that could doom them: The Astros are a very complete team. If anything, you look at the bullpen as a possible weakness, if only in relation to the rest of the roster. Houston's save percentage is better than average and their rate of stranding inherited runners ranks fifth. So we're not talking glaring weaknesses here. There's no lefty in the bullpen, unless Miley is moved there, but that hasn't been a problem for the Astros all season. Closer Roberto Osuna has been excellent and has a lot of postseason experience. If he slumps, chaos ensues. There's just no reason to think he'll slump. -- Doolittle

Their Mr. Excitement: Just one? That's like choosing your favorite Beatle or your favorite "Seinfeld" episode or your favorite variation of Diamondbacks uniform. Look, Verlander and Cole are going to finish 1-2 in the Cy Young voting and are capable of a dozen strikeouts every time out, but they don't play every day. Yordan Alvarez is a rookie slugger of prodigious ability, but he doesn't play in the field. George Springer had his best season and has been a World Series MVP. Jose Altuve is still a marvel. But for 2019, I have to go with Alex Bregman, who may be the AL MVP, plays all over the infield (whether at shortstop or in a shift), loves the spotlight and has the energy to earn the title Mr. Excitement. -- Schoenfield

Their best player you've never heard of: Maybe the league's most overlooked reliever over the past five years, Will Harris has the fifth-best ERA+ of any pitcher in that stretch -- better than Craig Kimbrel, better than Kenley Jansen -- while bouncing between roles in the Houston bullpen. On 20 other teams, he'd be the established closer with 175 career saves. But with Houston he settles for just his few saves a year -- when the regular closer is struggling or unavailable -- as well as his annual postseason bonus check. -- Miller

Their season in a game: The Astros' pitching was extraordinary this year, led by Cole and Verlander. But in the year of the juiced ball, even the two Cy Young co-favorites were vulnerable to home runs. The offense, meanwhile, led the majors in walks drawn and had the fewest strikeouts, as Houston set a franchise record for wins. The game, then: a 14-3 win over Colorado, Aug. 7. Cole struck out 10 and walked nobody in six innings, allowing only two runs on two solo homers. The Astros walked nine times, struck out only nine times, and, fittingly for a team that began the season with 96% playoff odds, had a big lead after the first inning. It was all cruising after that. -- Miller

Passan's Inside Intel: The questionable status of shortstop Carlos Correa could alter the makeup of the Astros' lineup -- but not irreparably. Alex Bregman has played admirably at shortstop all season. And considering how Correa's balky back has hampered him, he is at best a question mark. ... The construction of the Astros' roster is of great interest. Even without Correa, their depth is evident. Guarantees to make the roster: Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, George Springer, Michael Brantley, Yuli Gurriel, Martin Maldonado and Robinson Chirinos. Depending on how many pitchers the Astros carry, there could be an odd man out among the remaining players: Josh Reddick, Kyle Tucker, Jake Marisnick, Abraham Toro, Myles Straw and Aledmys Diaz.

If you're going to beat the Astros, the clearest path may be by dialing down the radar-gun numbers. "They murder fastballs," said one scout who has advanced them most of September. "They're the best breaking-ball-hitting team in the big leagues. But they struggle with changeups and splitters and soft stuff."

"You have to jump on Cole and Miley early," another scout said. "Because if you do, they don't have that two- or three-inning, young power guy to bridge the gap to the late innings. You can take advantage of that." ... "They just take such good at-bats," a third scout said. "Even when they're behind." He's right: Astros hitters have the best OPS in baseball of players down in the count. ... Nearly every evaluator believes the Astros are going to win the World Series. Said one: "Best team on paper. They're deep in the rotation. They're built for a five- and seven-game series. The first three starters for the Astros might be the three best starters in the postseason. You're not gonna score a lot."

World indoor champion hopes a more rhythmical approach to his craft will see him quickstep his way to success

When Andrew Pozzi turned up to training to find salsa music playing and was then told to hurdle along to the beat, he began to wonder what he might have let himself in for following his move to work with Santiago Antunez.

However, when you consider that “rhythm is everything” to the hurdles coaching guru, it all begins to make sense.

It was late last year that Pozzi, the world indoor champion, took the decision to relocate to Formia in Italy and come under the guidance of the Cuban who led Anier Garcia and Dayron Robles to Olympic 110m hurdles gold in 2000 and 2008.

The Briton has found a completely different approach to the art of hurdling there. Under Antunez, technique comes first before any thoughts move towards strength and speed.

It has brought consistency this season for Pozzi, if not spectacularly quick times, although he has had injury interruptions to contend with once again which have hardly helped his cause.

Yet his coach is not one to get immediately hung up on how quickly his pupil is making the journey from A to B, more the manner of how he is travelling.

Ingrain the technical side first, get the rhythm and timing right and the speed will follow.

“He (Sanitago) has remarked a lot that the Cuban system, which I guess he kind of developed, is very different to anything he’s seen in Europe,” says Pozzi. “He said, from his perspective, that in Europe there’s a real rush to make everything quantifiable – you have to run super fast on the track, you have to lift heavier and heavier weights in the gym – but he feels co-ordination, mobility and technique is very overlooked.

“He said in Cuba that, during their development – until much, much later than we do in Europe – all they focus on is co-ordination and technique stuff. That means that, when they start increasing their physicality in the gym and on the track the technique is good and everything is very efficient.”

And this is where the dance lessons come in.

“In the winter we were doing a lot of rhythm-based exercises,” continues Pozzi. “We had salsa music on and all this stuff.

“You have various hurdles out, there’s music playing and for a set period of time you’re going back and forth over these hurdles. It’s for hip mobility, for rhythm and it was very strange. I wondered what I’d let myself in for in the first couple of weeks.

“To him, rhythm is everything and that’s something I really need work on because the consistency of my times have got better but, if you take the Brussels Diamond League (he was sixth in 13.50) as an example, I was moving quite strongly for the first half or three quarters of the race but there was a lack of rhythm there and when that’s the case it becomes much harder to maintain your speed and your velocity.”

Getting his timing and footwork right is key, then, albeit that any call from Strictly Come Dancing will have to wait for the moment. First up is the business of the IAAF World Championships in Doha.

Given the substantial life and training changes he’s made, does it mean there has been a shift in Pozzi’s expectations? The man himself admits he thought there would be. Antunez felt differently.

“When I approached Santiago about working with him he made it very clear that he was used to top performances and used to winning medals at championships and he said that, based on what he knew of myself as an athlete and what he could see from our early work together that that was entirely the aim,” adds Pozzi.

“He said that, from his point of view, he wouldn’t have me going to Doha unless it was with the outlook of winning a medal.

“He said if it looked impossible then we’d stop and prepare for Tokyo next year but he said that’s not where we’re at.”

Check out the dedicated Doha 2019 section on our website here.

San Jose Sharks winger Evander Kane called his ejection for abuse of officials on Sunday night "an absolute joke," claiming there's a double standard in the way NHL refs treat him.

At 12 minutes, 51 seconds of the third period in a preseason loss at the Vegas Golden Knights, Kane and Deryk Engelland got into an altercation after the Knights' defenseman held Kane's stick following a hit by the Sharks' forward.

Engelland cross-checked Kane, and Kane responded with a slash that appeared to also make contact with linesman Kiel Murchison. As Kane skated back up the ice, Murchison grabbed the front of Kane's jersey, apparently trying to prevent an escalation with Engelland, and they tumbled to the ice.

The officials gave both players misconduct penalties, but Kane was ejected for abuse of officials. He yelled at the refs from the Sharks' bench before heading to the dressing room.

Evander Kane gets ejected in his last preseason game for "abuse of officials." pic.twitter.com/OAKcqPWf2I

— Brady Trettenero (@BradyTrett) September 30, 2019

"I get kicked out of the game for getting jumped from behind by a referee. I've never seen a ref take five strides," Kane said after the 5-1 defeat. "If you look at his face, he's getting all this power and he's trying to drive me into the ice, which is what he did. That's unbelievable. Talk about abuse of an official? How about abuse of a player? It's an absolute joke."

Kane, 28, said there was no explanation for his ejection.

"I was just skating up the ice. Minding my own business, and next thing you know, I get driven into the ice by one of the officials. I wasn't even engaged with one of their players," he said. "Explain that to me, how I get kicked out of the game for that. Baffling."

Before his ejection, Kane was penalized for roughing and then fighting Knights forward Valentin Zykov. He said his treatment at the hands of the linesman was part of a larger pattern, and that officials react to him in a different way than they do with other players.

"It's funny ... if you look at the way I get treated out there when it comes to the scrums, or when the other team is trying to do [something] to me, there's a massive difference compared to everybody else on the ice," he said.

Kane was tied with Colorado defenseman Ian Cole for the NHL lead with three game misconducts last season.

SAN JOSE, Calif. -- San Jose Earthquakes head coach Matias Almeyda has asked for his players to get the same treatment from referees as MLS stars Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Carlos Vela, following his team's 1-0 loss to the Seattle Sounders on Sunday.

San Jose saw Tommy Thompson sent off in the 56th minute as the Earthquakes extended its losing streak to five games and will now need a victory next Sunday on the road to Portland Timbers to guarantee a playoff spot.

Cristian Espinoza, Chris Wondolowski and Almeyda were all suspended for the midweek 2-1 loss to Philadelphia Union, while Almeyda has been sent off twice in recent weeks, the first time against LAFC on Aug. 21 and the second in the away loss to Atlanta on Sept. 21.

"Every game we have something that doesn't go our way," said Almeyda in a news conference after the game. "Our players know they shouldn't hit. They know they should respect the referees. They know they have to put their soul into it every time they play, which they do. I think we're one of the teams that fouls the least, with one of the least amounts of red cards.

"I've been sent off more than the players, and I don't know why [I've been sent off], either.

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"Hopefully next season will be a little more even. We live in a democracy and we live in a place like California where there is equality in many aspects. We want that to carry over into soccer and really see it."

Almeyda suggested that fouls are called differently for different players and that the officiating hasn't benefited his team of late.

"If they foul [Shea] Salinas, it should be judged in the same way as if they've fouled Vela," said Almeyda.

"And if they foul [Chris] Wondolowski the player is judged as if he was Ibrahimovic.

"The day that there is real equality, we'll have better football. Many of us risk our careers to come to this league. Some are content and others are losing hoping."

Almeyda's team dominated possession against the Sounders -- who went down to 10 players when Xavier Arreaga was sent off in the 71st minute -- but Jordan Morris netted a breakaway goal in second-half injury time, leaving the former Chivas coach feeling "impotent" about the ways things have gone this season in terms of the officiating.

"Many of us risked our careers in coming to this league," he said. "Some are happy, others are losing hope. I met with first quality directors, GMs, owners, whatever, everybody that works here. There's few times I've seen that in football. I feel honored being in this place, but I have a lot of impotence with what has happened throughout the season.

"I'm not saying this as a justification, I'm saying this as a warning, because we all have our pride, and we all dedicate passion, time and love to this.

"Since I've been living here, on Wednesday my father is having surgery again. He's 8,000 kilometers away. He had surgery three months ago. My work is here, my respect is here, toward [the press], the refs, the league, the directors, the club that signed me. I'm not feeling the same treatment."

San Jose travels to Portland on the final day of the regular season. The Quakes can reach the postseason if they defeat the Timbers -- who are two points in front in sixth place -- or if they tie and Dallas loses. Almeyda said regardless of what happens, he's proud of his team's improvement, which has seen San Jose already garner 24 more points in the standings than they did a year ago.

"I told them that if on the first day of preseason, if they were to have brought in a contract where they said we would have had a chance to make the playoffs on the last game, we all would have signed that contract," he said.

"This team has changed a lot, so I can't just stick with if we get in or not. I stick with something a lot deeper. A team that had 21 points last year, and with 85 percent of the same players we tried to be protagonists and competitive. They are and they were throughout the season. There's a reality that some teams player better than us and are better than us. But there's another reality that you cannot hide, which is the improvement of this team."

The search for the next boss of the United States women's national team has hit a roadblock, with the United States Soccer Federation hampered in its attempts to interview Arsenal Women's head coach Joe Montemurro about the role, sources have told ESPN.

The USSF is currently in the midst of a search for a new head coach after Jill Ellis announced that she would be stepping down from the role following the conclusion of a series of "Victory Tour" matches being staged to celebrate the U.S. romping to their second-consecutive Women's World Cup in July.

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Sources have told ESPN that the USSF approached Montemurro -- who has expressed an interest in the role -- about interviewing for the vacant position but were prevented in doing so by his current employers, who signed the 50-year-old to a long-term contract extension in October of 2018.

In charge of Arsenal's WSL side since 2017, Montemurro rose to prominence as a coach in his native Australia when he steered Melbourne City to back-to-back W-League titles in the club's first two years in existence, including an undefeated season in 2015-16.

Named to the head coaching role at boyhood club Arsenal after the midseason sacking of Pedro Martínez Losa in 2017, Montemurro led the Gunners to the victory in the FA Women's League Cup and reached the final of the FA Women's FA Cup in his first season.

Handed a full offseason ahead of the 2018-19 campaign, Montemurro promptly guided his side to Champions League qualification and its first WSL title since 2012; earning WSL League Managers Association Coach of the Year honours and a nomination for FIFA World Women's Coach of the Year.

With three wins from three, Arsenal currently leads the WSL -- Europe's only fully professional women's league -- in what looms as a vitally important season for the competition as it looks to capitalise on the momentum generated by the success of England at the 2019 World Cup though new streaming, scheduling and prize money initiatives.

The Gunners defeated Brighton and Hove Albion 4-0 on matchday three to move them above title-rivals Manchester City, who defeated Everton 1-0, on goal difference.

LOS ANGELES -- Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley has never been a fan of international games or games played on a short week.

Gurley's tone didn't change Sunday after a 55-40 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which dropped the Rams to 3-1 on the season. The Rams must turn around to play the Seattle Seahawks in a division opener at CenturyLink Field on Thursday.

"You know how I feel about Thursday night games," Gurley said when asked how the short week would alter his preparation. "I feel like they are the dumbest thing ever."

Gurley rushed for 16 yards and two touchdowns on five carries against the Bucs. He caught seven passes for 54 yards.

Following an approach similar to the one they've used the past two seasons, the Rams brought exercise bikes and massage tables into their postgame locker room Sunday to get a jump-start on the recovery process.

"It's never a good thing to be on a short week," safety John Johnson said.

As they enter Week 5, the Rams have minimal injuries. On Sunday, cornerback Marcus Peters was evaluated for a concussion, linebacker Bryce Hager suffered a stinger and rookie safety Taylor Rapp left the L.A. Memorial Coliseum with a boot on his left foot after he suffered an ankle injury.

Gurley did not appear concerned that the short week would limit the Rams' ability to perform against the Seahawks, whom Los Angeles swept last season and has defeated in three of four games since Sean McVay took over as head coach in 2017.

On Sunday, the Seahawks improved to 3-1 with a 27-10 victory over the Arizona Cardinals.

"For the most part, if you aren't really battling injuries or stuff like that, Thursday is kind of like a day you usually feel good anyway," Gurley said. "They played on Sunday, as well. ... We just have a quick turnaround to go up to Seattle."

The Rams play an international game in London against the Cincinnati Bengals next month.

NEW YORK -- The average time of a nine-inning game reached a record length in the major leagues this season.

Major League Baseball said Sunday the final figure for the 2019 regular season was 3 hours, 5 minutes, 35 seconds. That topped the 3:05:11 in 2017.

The average had dropped to 3:00:44 in 2018, helped by new restrictions that cut mound visits without pitching changes.

MLB's average was 2:46 in 2005.

CONCORD, N.C. – The Bank of America ROVAL 400 was not kind to four drivers who were hoping to continue their respective pursuits of the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series championship.

Ryan Newman, Aric Almirola, Kurt Busch and Erik Jones were all eliminated from the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series playoffs Sunday afternoon at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

Newman, who was the underdog entering the 2019 edition of the playoffs, was perhaps the most determined of those who failed to advance to the second round of NASCAR’s postseason.

Late in the race Newman was within a few points of potentially advancing to the second round, but a mistake while trying to hold off Almirola in the final three laps caused him to miss the backstretch chicane. He failed to stop in the restart zone on the frontstretch as required by NASCAR after he missed the chicane, then he failed to adhere to a pass through penalty for not stopping on the frontstretch.

Instead, NASCAR penalized Newman 30 seconds at the conclusion of the race. Newman ended up finishing 32nd as a result, well below the cutoff to advance to the second round of the playoffs.

“I felt like I made a lot of mistakes trying too hard. We did not have the race car and that’s what I had to do,” Newman said. “I felt like we were in a position at one point and then just kept trying too hard trying to keep the 10 car (Almirola) behind us and missed the curbs.  That was unfortunate.  We came in at a big deficiency and finished one point out or whatever it was, but, no matter what, we’re still gonna fight for fifth.  I’m proud of everybody at Roush Fenway for the fight and the opportunity that they’ve given me.  We’re not done, we’re just out at this point.”

Almirola’s day was mostly uneventful, but a late strategy call to stay on track when several others ended up biting him when those drivers with fresh tires blew by him in the laps that followed.

Almirola eventually hit pit road for fresh tires and tried to climb back through the field, but he ran out of time and finished 14th and outside the playoff bubble.

“I think they said we missed by five points, so the strategy we were on if the race would have continued to go green to the end we were gonna be in a good situation,” Almirola said. “I think we were seven or eight points to the good.  That caution came out and kind of put us in a spot to where we had to choose, and I knew and Johnny (Klausmeier, crew chief) knew that all the guys we were racing in points were gonna do the opposite of whatever we did.  We were the first car ahead of all those guys on the cutline, so we stayed out and made our bed and all those guys came and got tires. That’s just part of it.”

For the third-straight week, Busch simply had a bad day. He was one of several cars collected in an incident in turn one during a restart at the end of stage one, then he spun again late in the race coming out of turn eight.

His 20th place finish at Charlotte on Sunday was his fourth-straight finish outside the top-15 and Busch acknowledged he and his Chip Ganassi Racing team had nothing but bad luck throughout the first three playoff races.

“We’ve got to reground in these last seven races to make something better out of our season. It was a nightmare for three races,” Busch said. “We’re out, but we can still try to salvage something overall. We were a top-10 team all year, but the wheels came off it. This was a nightmare.”

Jones entered the ROVAL in a must-win situation after he was disqualified following a fourth-place finish last weekend at Richmond Raceway. His luck didn’t turn around Sunday when he was also collected in the same turn one melee that collected Busch, resulting in a 40th-place finish.

“It’s frustrating. It’s frustrating not just to even have a chance throughout the whole race, you know? We didn’t make it to the first stage and it wasn’t our fault,” Jones said. “That’s probably the most frustrating part is getting taken out and nothing you can do about it. We’ll have to keep going all year, win some more races and come back and start over again in next year’s playoffs.”

SENOIA, Ga. – Ashton Winger claimed the biggest win of his young career on Sunday during the fifth annual Schaeffer’s Oil Fall Nationals Series Billy Clanton Classic at Senoia Raceway.

The Senoia, Ga., driver claimed his first Schaeffer’s Oil Fall Nationals Series victory, worth $10,025. Winger also picked up $125 for leading on lap-25, which was sponsored by the Clanton Family.

Winger became the fourth different winner in five points events so far in the Fall Nationals.

Polesitter Chris Madden and Ashton Winger brought the field of 22 to life for the start of the main event as the duo would do battle, with Madden holding the top spot on the first lap over Winger and Clint Smith.

By lap eight Madden would work into lapped traffic and the duo of Madden/Winger would again fight for the lead in an epic battle for that top spot on lap-ten. By lap 13 Winger had reached the back bumper of Madden with a couple of slower cars between them as the duo worked off the second turn and would go to work again. Winger would show his nose on lap 14 and then work the high side on the next lap and take the lead officially by lap 15. On lap 19, Winger and Madden would do battle again with Winger continuing to hold the point.

On the 23rd lap, Winger would work around more lapped cars and put 15th place starter Brandon Overton a lap down and Winger had lapped up to the eighth place car by lap 27.

After the second try on the lap 28 restart, sixth starting Shane Clanton showed his nose as the field of cars worked into the first turn and Clanton would take second spot from Madden with Clint Smith and Tyler Millwood in hot pursuit.

Winger would be virtually untouchable during the second half of the race and go on for the payday over Madden, Clanton, Clint Smith and Casey Roberts who rounded out the top-five.

The finish:

Ashton Winger, Chris Madden, Shane Clanton, Clint Smith, Casey Roberts, Tyler Millwood, Brandon Overton, Michael Page, Matt Dooley, Jason Croft, Donald McIntosh, Dalton Cook, Steven Roberts, Dennis Hale, David Payne, Lamar Haygood, Jeff Neubert, Ryan Crane, Jody Knowles, Landon Bagby, Austin Smith, Cass Fowler.