Here we go:

Most Valuable Player

A year ago, as insiders debated what a coaching change might mean for the league's brightest young superstar, you often heard a note of caution: The talent around Giannis isn't that good.

No one would say that now, after Khris Middleton's All-Star turn, Eric Bledsoe's career season, Malcolm Brogdon's 50-40-90 campaign, and the raging of Splash Mountain. Jon Horst and Mike Budenholzer, Milwaukee's GM and coach, crafted the shooting-heavy ecosystem in which all those players -- plus Antetokounmpo -- thrived.

It is hard to untangle Antetokounmpo's MVP case from the work of Milwaukee's brain trust. They mitigated Antetokounmpo's one weakness: his jumper. James Harden has no weaknesses on offense. He could thrive within any ecosystem. He is the best offensive player in the league.

The roster around Antetokounmpo was healthier, deeper and better than the one around Harden. Excluding garbage time, the Rockets outscored opponents by just 1.1 points per 100 possessions with Harden on the bench -- and 6.2 points when he played, per Cleaning The Glass. He took a slightly above-average team in the tougher conference and made them very good. He saved a season that was teetering.

The Bucks outscored opponents by 4.3 points per 100 possessions when Antetokounmpo rested, and 12.5 points with him on the floor. He turned a good team into a supernova.

Which of those is more "valuable"? There is no universal answer. All the sample sizes are small, anyway. We don't really know how Milwaukee would have fared with a replacement-level player in Antetokounmpo's spot.

Best and most valuable are almost the same, but not quite. Kevin Durant is better than Damian Lillard, but he is not as "valuable" -- as indispensable, irreplaceable, whatever -- to the regular-season fate of this Golden State team as Lillard is in Portland. Rewarding players who lift flawed, injured rosters is baked into the MVP process.

The trick is deciding how much. Rewarding candidates on thinner teams means indirectly punishing candidates on better teams. There is a point at which that equation tilts out of balance.

No one would have argued Antetokounmpo's supporting cast was wildly superior to Harden's, or even superior at all, at the end of last season. Much changed between then and now: Brook Lopez entered, Trevor Ariza exited, and injuries (to Clint Capela and Chris Paul, notably) throttled Houston.

Any difference in roster quality is not enough to win Harden MVP. Any team could have had Lopez. Middleton and Bledsoe were borderline All-Stars in the Eastern Conference who would not have made it in the Western Conference. Antetokounmpo elevated them at least as much as Budenholzer and Horst did in crafting Milwaukee's playing style -- and probably much more. He took this roster where an MVP typically would, and maybe further. Harden did the same with his team.

Milwaukee is 7.5 games ahead of Houston. Its scoring margin with Antetokounmpo on the floor is double Houston's with Harden. If those numbers were closer, the roster-quality argument would win the day for Harden. You can't punish Antetokounmpo for leading a healthier, more talented roster if he led it to its proper endpoint.

Open 3-pointers do not materialize without Antetokounmpo rampaging to the rim. Open space matters only if someone can penetrate it, and no one has done so with more ruthless efficiency, more often, than Antetokounmpo. No one has been able to stop him. No gambit meant to exploit his shaky jumper has worked for any prolonged period. He is dribbling, and then he is spinning, and then he is at the rim screaming at you.

Antetokounmpo is an offense unto himself almost to the degree Harden is. He's averaging 28 points and six dimes on 58 percent shooting. He is Shaq, only he starts from 30 feet out. The insanity of Harden's point totals has almost obscured that Antetokounmpo is a phenomenal scorer in his own right.

He is not quite Harden as a scorer, or passer. Harden broke basketball with the step-back 3. He is unguardable. But the gap on offense, and between their rosters, is not big enough to trump the gap on defense.

Harden, even bringing elite post defense, is a minor liability the Rockets scheme around. Antetokounmpo is a weapon Milwaukee wields, and one opponents fear and avoid. He ranks sixth in rebounding, 10th in blocks and 31st in steals.

He impacts every possession, on both ends. On some nights, it feels as if he dictates every possession.

Harden is worthy, but Antetokounmpo gets this vote by a slim margin.

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo
2. James Harden
3. Paul George
4. Nikola Jokic
5. Damian Lillard

The three toughest omissions: Joel Embiid, Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry. The Sixers crater without Embiid. But he missed 16 games, and he's not quite as efficient on offense as the typical big-man candidate: 48 percent shooting, 30 percent from deep and an assist-to-turnover ratio close to even.

It feels wrong to have no Warrior. Curry and Durant are two of the five best players in the league, at worst.

That will be reflected on my All-NBA ballot. The pesky word "valuable" demands we factor in roster context here; Curry's and Durant's MVP voting totals will never match their overall status as long as they play together -- and with Draymond Green and Klay Thompson.

I voted Curry fifth in 2017, his first season teaming with Durant, and I considered him for one of the last three spots this time. He has been incredible; the Warriors rate as the best team in the league with him on the floor. He is the short Tim Duncan, as Steve Kerr likes to say: the founding star and calming force of a dynasty.

But he missed 12 games, and Golden State outscored opponents (barely) when Durant played without Curry. They were even better in the opposite scenario, and Durant parceled out his energy on defense.

I'd have no issue with one or both making the ballot, but at whose expense? This was a three-way race until George tweaked his shoulder. He's No. 2 in scoring, and a candidate for Defensive Player of the Year. He is Oklahoma City's only reliable high-volume 3-point shooter. The Thunder have collapsed without him.

I've seen voters leave Jokic off, and I don't get it. He has to make it. Denver might snag the No. 2 seed in the West despite major injuries to three starters. Jokic has been their constant -- their only player even close to All-Star status. He is one of the league's half-dozen best offensive players. He's a liability in some matchups on the other end, but the Nuggets have managed to defend at a high level with him on the floor. You cannot say that for Harden and the Rockets.

(I have flipped George and Jokic between third and fourth several times. The Nuggets are way ahead in the standings, but George ultimately had the better two-way season.)

The Blazers are plus-8 per 100 possessions with Lillard on the floor, and minus-8 when he sits. That 16-point differential is one of the largest in the league. Portland has won 52 games. Lillard held them together after a postseason sweep rattled every level of the franchise. He missed one game. There haven't been five more valuable players this season.

Defensive Player of the Year

1. Rudy Gobert
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo
3. Paul George

If Embiid had been healthy all season, we would have four candidates. The competition is so fierce that missing 16 games is enough to knock him to fourth -- even though the Sixers have rarely been able to function without him.

We didn't see much of the Kawhi Leonard who just takes the ball from anyone who dares dribble within 10 feet of him. Myles Turner burst into this discussion, but he's a tick behind these guys, with lingering footwork hiccups to smooth. Green still has stretches in which he looks like the league's best defender, and the Warriors remained an elite defensive team with him on the floor. But peak Green flits in and out of games.

The three guys on this ballot are every-possession stalwarts. Embiid is too, when he's on the floor. He is a better raw athlete than Gobert; Embiid at full throttle, with fresh legs and full lungs (can't lose!), is the league's most terrifying defensive force. No one closes space faster.

Publicly available stats -- advanced and otherwise -- tilt to Gobert over Embiid, or are so close as to be indistinguishable. Tracking metrics favor Gobert.

Utah has allowed 102.5 points per 100 possessions when Gobert sits, and 103 when he plays, per NBA.com. That should not impact his candidacy. That 103 number is two points lower than Milwaukee's league-leading team mark, and a hair below what Philly yields with Embiid. Gobert compiles it mostly against starters. It's nice that Utah remains so stingy when Gobert rests. It matters more here that the Jazz suffocate opponents when he plays.

The same is true for Antetokounmpo, the best defender on the best defensive team. Milwaukee's defense reaches absurd levels of impenetrability with Antetokounmpo on the floor: 100.5 points allowed per 100 possessions.

He is averaging nearly 1.5 steals and 1.5 blocks per game, otherwise known as pulling an Olajuwon. Opponents are shooting just 52.5 percent at the rim when Antetokounmpo is the nearest defender, about the same as against Gobert and Embiid.

He is the most versatile defender in the league, and has a chance to be the most versatile defender ever. He can play any style, and adjust for any opponent. In plotting out four playoff series, there is no defender I would rather have.

But over the 82-game grind, Gobert barely gets the edge. As a center, Gobert is involved in the main action -- as both pick-and-roll bulwark and last-line-of-defense helper -- more often than Antetokounmpo and George. He challenged about 27 shots per 100 possessions, according to Second Spectrum; Antetokounmpo and George faced about 15.5 apiece. Few regular-season opponents overhaul their rotation to add the level of shooting that yanks Gobert out of his comfort zone. (Gobert has also looked more spry and at ease against those who have.)

On those possessions when Gobert doesn't directly challenge shots, he still defines what kinds of shots opponents get. He is a one-man defensive architecture. (Embiid is, too.) Because of Gobert, Utah allows the fifth-lowest share of shots at the basket -- and that understates his impact, since that share plummets when Gobert is on the floor. Because of Gobert, perimeter defenders can stick to shooters; Utah allows the lowest share of opponent 3s.

Antetokounmpo and George carry their own versions of that kind of passive value. Teams might warp game plans to avoid attacking them. They lurk on the wing, discouraging productive passes and shutting off catch-and-go drives.

But by virtue of sliding to power forward, Antetokounmpo spends more time than either Gobert or George guarding bottom-rung options. There are nights against Blake Griffin types when the lift is much heavier, and Antetokounmpo can of course switch onto the alpha wing scorers George envelops every game. Defending off-ball types also frees Antetokounmpo to rove, and he is lethal in that role.

I had George ahead of Antetokounmpo until the past two-plus weeks. All three would be fine choices.

Coach of the Year

1. Mike Budenholzer
2. Doc Rivers
3. Mike Malone

This award presents the thorniest cognitive challenge. The Budenholzer makeover in Milwaukee is fresh. Jason Kidd trapped everything, and Milwaukee's opponents passed around those traps to produce the most shots at the rim last season, per Cleaning The Glass. Budenholzer planted Lopez in the paint, and the Bucks now give up the fewest shots at the rim by a mile.

Only two teams fouled more often, per opponent shot attempt, than Milwaukee last season. Budenholzer made that a priority, and bam: The Bucks have the league's lowest foul rate. Milwaukee ranked 25th in the portion of shots that came from 3-point range last season; only Houston posted a higher share this season.

Budenholzer's handprints are all over this team. That is easy to see. Our brains gravitate toward stuff that happened recently. But the flip side is what might be called the Curse of Popovich -- the cost, in awards voting, of consistency.

Why does Quin Snyder -- my pick a year ago -- fall off the ballot because the 50-win Jazz merely met expectations they set last season? Terry Stotts' Blazers are wrapping their sixth consecutive season at .500 or above, and he made substantive changes to Portland's rotation and playing style. You barely hear his name in Coach of the Year chatter.

The "of year" wording encourages voters to focus on each season as its own entity -- a process that naturally leads toward the new and unexpected.

In a 20-month span, the Clippers traded Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and Tobias Harris, and somehow sniffed 50 wins in the Western Conference. They are starting two rookie guards and an anonymous third-year center. About half their roster is heading toward free agency, often a recipe for selfish, disjointed play.

Rivers and his staff helped keep this team together. They crafted different styles of offense -- one for starters, another for the rollicking bench -- that shared a hard-charging ethos resulting in heaps of foul shots. Everyone committed to making the simple play, the collective unselfishness compensating for an absence of any star playmaker.

Bringing two of LA's three best players off the bench -- Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell -- balanced the rotation. This might be Rivers' best coaching job ever; he is as deserving as Budenholzer.

The last spot came down to Malone, Nate McMillan, Kenny Atkinson and Dave Joerger, with strong consideration for Stotts, Snyder, Nick Nurse, Brett Brown, Mike D'Antoni, Popovich and Steve Clifford. All have cases. (Nurse has done under-the-radar great work guiding the Raptors through major changes and injuries, and positioning them to peak at the right time.) Rick Carlisle is still a warlock.

McMillan was the toughest omission. Everything in Rivers' dossier applies to him: the disappearance of a central player (Victor Oladipo); the physical, selfless playing style; the unusual number of impending free agents. The Pacers going 6-12 so far in March and April hurt. Denver having a chance at 54 wins and the No. 2 seed in the West is more impressive than 47 wins and fifth in the East.

The Nuggets survived injuries to Paul Millsap, Will Barton, Gary Harris and Trey Lyles. None are as good as Oladipo, but that is a lot of lost manpower.

The Nuggets play hard, and for each other. They have bought into a helter-skelter defensive style that doesn't work without peak effort from everyone.

You could see it crystallize toward the end of last season, when Denver fell far enough behind in the playoff race that it would have been understandable for them to sulk toward the finish line. Instead, the Nuggets galvanized around a long-shot goal, and took the Timberwolves to overtime in the finale.

If you were watching and listening, you knew those last 10 or 12 games meant something real. They were a big reason I picked Denver to host a playoff series this season. They signaled a healthy culture. Malone deserves a lot of credit for that -- and for smart schematic coaching.

Rookie of the Year

1. Luka Doncic
2. Trae Young
3. Jaren Jackson Jr.

Doncic's late-season slide and Young's scorching February and March created the perception of a race, but I'm not sure there is any real case for Young beyond an edge in assists. The first 40 games count, and Young over that time was one of the worst players in the league -- a piece of tissue fluttering around on defense who missed nearly everything on the other end.

Doncic built an insurmountable advantage. Even now, his shooting numbers are better, though Young's higher 3-point volume closes that gap some. Doncic is maybe a slightly below-average defender; the Hawks would throw a party if Young checked in as slightly below average next season. Doncic's size gives him some positional flexibility. He's a plus rebounder; rebounding is part of defense.

The advanced numbers, if you are care about those, paint this as a blowout. Young is going to be a sensational offensive player. His 3-point shot came alive over the second half of the season on the kind of high-wire diet that bends defenses to their breaking point -- 30-footers, step-backs, pull-ups going both directions on the pick-and-roll. He is already one of the 10 best passers in the league, and that might be selling him short.

But Doncic is in that group too, and he was better over the full season.

The third spot is an eye-of-the-beholder thing. Deandre Ayton has the best box-score numbers, and has appeared in 13 more games than Jackson. He made real strides on defense after looking in his first 15 games as if he had never seen a pick-and-roll. He has a case. So do Marvin Bagley III and perhaps Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Cavs will stump for Collin Sexton; his shooting, shoulder-checking drives and "give me the freaking ball" tenacity made for a pleasant surprise over the last 30-plus games.

But those first 40 ... oof. His defense at the point of attack has been about as damaging as Young's.

Jackson has been the best all-around player in this group, and 58 games is enough to nab this historical footnote. He's miles ahead of Bagley and Ayton on defense, and his 3-point shooting -- 36 percent from deep, with a polished pump-and-go game -- makes him the most versatile among them on offense.

Critics might point out that the Grizzlies were abysmal when Jackson played without Mike Conley, but the same holds for Ayton and Devin Booker. Jackson gets the nod here.

Sixth Man of the Year

1. Lou Williams
2. Domantas Sabonis
3. Montrezl Harrell

Williams, second in fourth-quarter scoring, solidified his case with a strong finishing kick and insane clutch shooting. He's a liability on defense, but the list of credible candidates doesn't feature any stoppers.

I went into this thinking Harrell had outplayed Sabonis, giving the Clippers an unprecedented 1-2 finish, but the evidence favors Sabonis. Both have scored efficiently. Harrell is more of a deterrent around the rim on defense, but Sabonis knows where to be. He has managed well enough guarding opposing power forwards to buy McMillan good chunks of time every game playing Sabonis and Turner together.

Rebounding and passing separate him from Harrell. He props up Indiana's shaky rebounding; the Clippers concede more offensive boards with Harrell on the floor, per NBA.com. Sabonis can act as the hub of Indiana's second-unit offense, working handoffs, plucking cutters (he and Doug McDermott share a powerful mind meld), and even canning the occasional short jumper.

Harrell hasn't proven he can subsist without Williams, or another star-level ball handler. The Clips have collapsed when Harrell plays without Williams, and comfortably outscored opponents in the opposite scenario. Both sample sizes are small -- about 400 minutes apiece -- but you have to split hairs somewhere.

I'm not sure anyone else belongs on the ballot. Spencer Dinwiddie faded a bit down the stretch. The Nets have been a little better with Dinwiddie on the bench, and he is duplicative with D'Angelo Russell and Caris LeVert.

Terrence Ross might be the tougher omission. He has been a crucial bench cog for Orlando -- its only reliable second-unit deep threat -- and part of its best five-man lineup. But 38 percent from 3-point range is not, like, incredible, and he's not good at anything else. A nice season, but he falls short here. Ditto for Dwyane Wade in his swan song.

Derrick Rose finished with just 1,392 minutes in 51 games. Julius Randle, Jeremy Lamb and Marcus Morris are ineligible by rule; they started too many games. Dennis Schroder tossed bricks from everywhere, and his defense remains inexcusably soft given his physical tools. Bogdan Bogdanovic -- posting a tidy 14-4-4 line -- hasn't shot quite well enough inside the arc.

The Spurs and Nuggets deserve some collective bench award, but no single player stands out above the Williams/Sabonis/Harrell trio. Monte Morris might come closest, though Mason Plumlee and Malik Beasley have cases.

Dwight Powell came on too late. Robin Lopez is sneakily eligible, but it's hard to reward anyone from such a bad team. Andre Iguodala is a genius, but he just doesn't do enough stuff anymore. (It's a crime he never won during this Golden State run, though.)

Most Improved Player

1. Pascal Siakam
2. D'Angelo Russell
3. De'Aaron Fox

Russell appears to be the people's choice amid a typically overstuffed field. He has made monster strides: 4.5 points and two assists per game over last season, plus improved shooting from some of his pet areas.

This is not just a case of Russell making more of the midrange shots and wackadoo ceiling-scraping floaters he has always adored. He is craftier changing pace, manipulating defenses with eye fakes and hesitation dribbles, prodding into more profitable territory. He knows when to dispense with all that, pick up his dribble near the 3-point arc, and slingshot crosscourt lasers to open shooters.

Russell has always had that sort of guile. He has tapped into it on a deeper level, in more varied ways, and he has done so as the No. 1 option on a team that played the last month under postseason pressure.

Siakam, of course, is not a No. 1 option. He is Toronto's third-best player, and someone defenses leave alone on the perimeter -- or at least did so until Siakam proved he would punish them.

But critics who paint Siakam as a wallflower mooching off the greatness of Kawhi Leonard and Kyle Lowry haven't paid attention. Leonard and Lowry have missed 39 combined games, and their absences have not often overlapped. That has nudged Siakam into something like a floating second-option role, and some alpha duty when the one remaining star rests.

Siakam has run almost 300 isolations, 28th overall, more than Jimmy Butler, Jayson Tatum, Andrew Wiggins, Stephen Curry, Ben Simmons, Rudy Gay, Lou Williams and Donovan Mitchell. The Raptors have scored almost exactly one point per possession on those plays, 46th among 150 players who have finished at least 50 isos, per Second Spectrum data.

Toronto has scored 1.07 points per possession when Siakam shoots out of a post-up, or passes to a teammate who launches right away -- 27th among 122 guys who have recorded at least 40 post-ups, per Second Spectrum.

I'm not sure why it hasn't registered, but Siakam is a very good one-on-one player. It doesn't always look pretty -- well, the spin move does -- but Siakam just kind of zig-zags to where he wants to go, and flicks in floaters off the glass. He is like a skinny, faster Boris Diaw. You don't quite understand how he got from point A to point B, but he did.

He is a fiend in transition, as both ball handler and finisher. He and Marc Gasol have a budding pick-and-roll partnership. Siakam is shooting 37 percent from deep, and 41 percent from the corners; he hit 29 3s all of last season. Multiple Eastern Conference coaches have told me in the past two weeks that they are scared now to leave Siakam open.

Siakam is averaging 10 more points per game than last season. Russell has become a better version of the player he already was. Siakam is a different player entirely.

He also has a claim as Toronto's best defender this season. (The engaged version of Leonard will presumably retake that status in the playoffs.) Toronto's points allowed per possession when the opponent involves Siakam in any action -- isolations, post-ups, either end of a pick-and-roll -- are off-the-charts good, per Second Spectrum. He can switch across every position.

You could go dozens of different directions with the third spot. There are guys who went from the deepest bench to playing well in meaningful roles: Morris and Beasley in Denver, Derrick Jones Jr., D.J. Wilson, Alfonzo McKinnie, Derrick White, Damyean Dotson, Jahlil Okafor, Cedi Osman, Thomas Bryant. Bryn Forbes kind of fits this mold, even though he logged 1,500 minutes last season. I never know quite what to do with this type.

Some prefer stars who made another mini-leap: Harden, Antetokounmpo, George, Jokic. Perhaps you lean toward established guys one or two tiers below: Steven Adams, Jusuf Nurkic (one of my favorite candidates), Andre Drummond, Bojan Bogdanovic, Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, Malcolm Brogdon, and others. Vucevic is probably the strongest such candidate, with big jumps across the board. He nearly made this ballot, and he might get first-place votes.

There are guys who don't fit any category, and don't appear to have improved much unless you watch closely. A favorite this season: Jerami Grant. Some of his advanced numbers are down or flat, but his huge spike in 3-point shooting -- 39 percent on 3.6 attempts per game -- changed Oklahoma City's season. (He's also averaging five more points per game.)

And then there are the younger guys: Fox, Myles Turner, Buddy Hield, John Collins, Bam Adebayo, Justise Winslow (perhaps a little old for this designation), Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma (playing a grittier and more all-around game this season) and Jonathan Isaac. A lot of voters stay away from second-year guys, especially lottery picks; we expect them to improve.

But Fox accomplished in one season what can take some point guards the bulk of a career: transforming from overwhelmed, one-step-behind kid into sophisticated orchestrator who baits the defense and sees passes before anyone else. The bump in shooting -- up to 37 percent from deep -- is a bonus.

Fox slowed down after the All-Star break, but he did enough to snag this spot.

Additional apologies to: Terrance Ferguson, Noah Vonleh, Emmanuel Mudiay, Marcus Smart, Alex Len, Davis Bertans, T.J. Warren, Karl-Anthony Towns, Christian Wood, Harrell, Joe Harris, Dorian Finney-Smith, Josh Richardson and a few others.

For those in Boston panicking about the Red Sox's sequel to a World Series championship starting with a 3-9 record and the worst run differential in the American League, fear not. That thing in the distance -- it's not the sky falling. It's just a smoke signal from luxury-tax hell to warn that it's coming. Or wait. Maybe it's actually the farm sending a message that the system is barren and needs help.

Pardon the gallows humor. The Red Sox's debacle of a beginning to the 2019 season is bad enough as it is. That Boston has backed itself into a corner in other integral facets of building a sustained contender only makes it worse -- and explains why the capacity to change their current trajectory won't be easy.

This is not to cast the Red Sox to where they resided in their previous incarnation, with three last-place finishes sandwiched around a most unlikely title. Any team with Boston's resources can purchase an end around most issues, with the caveat that it could perhaps compound them to an even greater degree.

Perhaps it's easiest to start there, with the Red Sox showering their largesse at a curious time. Less than a week after the first pitch of the spring he threw clocked in at 89 mph, Chris Sale agreed to a five-year, $145 million contract extension with the Red Sox. Sale has been one of the best pitchers in the major leagues for the better part of a decade. His two seasons in Boston have been beyond phenomenal. He is revered in the clubhouse, the organization, the city.

That said, the reaction around baseball was the awkward marriage of puzzlement at why they did it and giddiness that they actually did. Among the mileage on Sale's arm, the shoulder problems that disabled him twice last year and the fastball velocity going AWOL, the warning signs were lit up like the Citgo sign. And the Red Sox had the perfect hedge: Sale was under contract for the 2019 season. If he looked good, rival executives figured, the Red Sox could extend him following the year. If not, he would hit free agency.

Now, on the heels of his third consecutive troublesome start, with radar guns registering UH-OH instead of a number, the Sale contract is, at least in the short term, a red flag, and not the kind that hangs at Fenway Park celebrating a title. Starting next season, they're on the hook for $29 million a year for Sale -- at least twice what he'd get coming off a substandard 2019 -- plus $32 million a year for David Price and $17 million a season for Nathan Eovaldi, both through 2022. That's $78 million a year for three starting pitchers -- or more than the first-place Tampa Bay Rays, who have only three starting pitchers, are spending on their entire team this season.

Which is not to say the Red Sox shouldn't spend money. They rake it in. Spending it to improve the team is admirable. It also has put the Red Sox in a very interesting position, one that has manifested itself with the continued free agency of their former closer, Craig Kimbrel. The Red Sox could use a good relief pitcher. Kimbrel has been that. Kimbrel could use a job. The Red Sox have one of those. Boston's reticence to sign Kimbrel is for a few reasons -- they don't want to lose a potential draft pick they'd gain if he goes elsewhere, they were concerned with his end-of-season performance -- and includes a concern about money.

Currently, the Red Sox are on the cusp of a second consecutive season flipping the bird at the luxury-tax threshold. Last season, Boston blew past the first, second and third levels of the tax ($197 million, $217 million and $237 million). This year, Boston is somewhere above $240 million, according to sources, and pushing up against that maximum threshold (at $246 million this year). If they exceed it, they'll once again be docked 10 picks in the first round -- Boston's No. 33 overall pick this year got dropped to 43rd -- and pay future overages at a higher rate.

The penalty is, in reality, not severe enough to warrant teams acting as though the luxury-tax threshold is some high-voltage barbed-wire fence. Except that draft-pick docking really does hinder an organization like Boston, whose farm system is teetering somewhere between meh and ugh.

Which wouldn't be so much of a problem if it didn't force the Red Sox into some awfully interesting decisions coming up. Between the extensions for Sale and Xander Bogaerts (at a much more reasonable six years, $120 million for a 26-year-old shortstop) this spring, Boston committed another $50 million or so a year to its payroll for at least the next half-decade. Today, with only Sale, Price, Eovaldi, Bogaerts, Dustin Pedroia and Christian Vazquez, the Red Sox have a luxury-tax number of $114 million next season.

Automatically add benefits, and that takes it to $129 million. Plus an estimated $30 million in 2020 for Mookie Betts, which brings it to the cusp of $160 million. Then $10 million for Jackie Bradley Jr., and about half that for Andrew Benintendi going to arbitration for the first time, and it's at $175 million for nine players. That doesn't include J.D. Martinez, because he may well opt out. Boston will need at least one starting pitcher, a first baseman, a DH and some semblance of a bullpen, and all under the $208 million number that year, so they can avoid staying at the repeat-offender base rate of a 50 percent tax. Maybe their two best prospects, Bobby Dalbec and Michael Chavis, can fill those power-hitting roles and make the potential loss of Martinez an afterthought.

The more reasonable thought, for a team that has money as free agency across the sport has petered out, is: They could afford this. They easily could afford this because they are the Red Sox, and they regularly sell out Fenway and NESN ratings are bonkers and their business side is even sharper than their baseball side, which is saying something. They absolutely could afford to give Betts a deal for $40 million a year if they wanted to ensure he stayed with the Red Sox for the remainder of his career, and just resign themselves to life above the tax. They wouldn't be the first team -- and with as much money as they've already committed going forward (even in 2022 they've still got more than $115 million committed), the possibility of Boston tearing down simply can't and won't happen.

The Red Sox's dealings with Kimbrel don't explicitly speak of tax dodging, because there are enough reasons not to sign him. With Betts, and even with Martinez, there aren't any great reasons. As extension season drew to a close, the Red Sox understood what everyone in baseball saw: The paucity of top players on the market would place an added emphasis on locking up those already in your uniform.

Owners John Henry and Tom Werner and president Dave Dombrowski find themselves confronted with these realities now -- and a much more acute one: Building a winner may be hard, but sustaining it is much, much harder. The Chicago Cubs left the 2016 season with a championship, a soon-to-be-ballooning payroll and a farm system on the downswing. Their Jason Heyward megadeal went sour and was joined by Yu Darvish's and Tyler Chatwood's free-agent contracts. Now the Cubs are over the threshold and without much, if any, payroll flexibility. As the great philosopher Christopher Wallace once said: "Mo Money Mo Problems."

That is not actually true in baseball, of course. Money washes away many ills, and it's at the heart of the Red Sox's plans going forward. Will this start authorize them to spend this year? Or will it reinforce that this isn't a team worth spending another dime on? It's not even 10 percent of the way through the season, so if the line of thinking here feels unreasonable, that's because it is. But management needs to plan for contingencies, too. And thus the questions above.

They'll all be answered in due time, and those answers will be best viewed through the greater prism that governs baseball economics, particularly those of teams like the Red Sox, who are among the game's royalty. Even when the sky is falling, all it takes is a few properly placed stacks of cash to put it back exactly where it's supposed to be.

Great Britain have named an unchanged team for their Fed Cup World Group II play-off against Kazakhstan, which begins on 20 April.

British number one Johanna Konta is joined by Katie Boulter, Heather Watson, Harriet Dart and Katie Swan.

The British team won all 10 of their rubbers in February's group stages to reach the play-offs.

If they beat Kazakhstan in London, they will return to World Group II for the first time since 1993.

The tie will take place from 20-21 April at the Copper Box Arena.

"There is little to separate the two teams in terms of rankings, but I'm confident the home fans will give all our players an inspirational lift," GB captain Anne Keothavong said.

"It's important to our team to open up our sport to new fans and increase awareness of tennis at different times of the year."

Willstrop fights back to post victory against Pilley
By ELLIE MAWSON

James Willstrop, Declan James, Joel Makin, Chris Simpson, Daryl Selby and Millie Tomlinson all delivered for Britain on the opening day of action at the 2019 DPD Open Squash in Eindhoven.

As packages whizzed past at the DPD Parcels HQ, Dutch No.1 Milou van der Heijden was unable to post a home win as she slipped to defeat against England’s Tomlinson in round one.

World No.31 van der Heijden fell in front of her home crowd on day one of the PSA World Tour Gold tournament as she succumbed to a 3-1 defeat at the hands of World No.22 Tomlinson inside the brand new DPD headquarters in Eindhoven.

The Englishwoman started strongly and never let up to take the first two-games. A good spell from van der Heijden in the third saw the Dutch player rattle off a flurry of points to pull a game back, however, it was not enough to prevent Tomlinson from booking her place in the second round, where she will now face Egypt’s World No.1 Raneem El Welily.

“I’m relieved,” said 26-year-old Tomlinson following her victory. “Milou had a good win against me in San Francisco a few months ago, so it was good to come out here and get my revenge.

“I tried to increase the pace a bit tonight, she caught me out a lot with her boast last time, so I was prepared for that today.”

Van der Heijden’s compatriot in the women’s draw Tessa ter Sluis was also unable to make it a day to remember for the home crowd as she was defeated in straight-games by Egypt’s Yathreb Adel, who will now face France’s World No.4 Camille Serme in the next round.

Meanwhile, there was joy for eight-time World Champion Nicol David, who resides in Amsterdam, after she overcame Egypt’s World Junior Champion Rowan Elaraby in four games to set up a mouthwatering second-round tie against reigning World Champion Nour El Sherbini.

“I knew coming in here I had to be solid and in the second game when I let my guard down, she took it,” said former World No.1 David following her win. “I knew what I had to do in the third and fourth and I was very pleased with my focus. I’m very pleased to be playing in front of a Dutch crown and back in Holland again.”

Elsewhere in the women’s draw, former World No.1 Rachael Grinham rolled back the years as she prevailed against America’s Olivia Blatchford Clyne in a five-game thriller on the sidecourts at Squash Time in Eindhoven.

The 42-year-old took a two-game lead, before Blatchford Clyne battled back to draw level. However, it was the Australian who was able to close out the victory to complete an 11-8, 11-9, 7-11, 8-11, 11-6 win in 45 minutes and will now face England’s No.1 Sarah-Jane Perry in the next round.

“Nowadays, I just try to enjoy my squash as much as I can, because the more I’m relaxed, the more I play well,” said former World Champion Grinham.

“I always try and tell myself not to go for too much, but in the fifth, I told myself that I had to make her work hard for it and win the points instead of me giving them away.”

She will be joined in the second round by Canada’s Hollie Naughton after she upset higher seeded opponent Emily Whitlock to advance at the tournament.

The Canadian enjoyed a five-game battle with the Englishwoman to secure a second-round berth where she will face England’s former World No.1 Laura Massaro.

In the men’s draw, Wales’ Joel Makin ended Dutch hopes as he put wildcard Roshan Bharos to the sword in straight-games.

The Welshman was comfortable on court to dispatch the Dutch hopeful by an 11-3, 11-4, 11-5 scoreline and will now face Egypt’s Marwan ElShorbagy for a place in the quarter-finals.

“Me and Roshan played a bit of juniors together,” said the 24-year-old Welshman. “I know Roshan because he trains in Bristol, which isn’t too far away from me. I know he’s working hard there and trying to improve his game.

“He’s got some nice skills, so hopefully those will give him the points to go up a little bit more now.”

Meanwhile, England’s former World No.1 James Willstrop battled back from the brink of defeat against Australia’s Cameron Pilley to book his place in the second round.

The experienced duo had faced each other seven times in the past on the PSA Tour, with Willstrop claiming all of those wins, however, it looked as though Pilley was finally going to break that run when he went 2-1 up. Willstrop dug in deep though and showed his resilience to produce a masterclass in the fifth game and take a 6-11, 11-7, 8-11, 11-9, 11-5 victory.

Willstrop will now face World No.1 and reigning World Champion Ali Farag in the next round.

“It was very hard against Cameron,” said the Commonwealth Games Gold medallist. “I never know where he is going to put the ball, there is so much hold and deception. He’s really hard to play against and we have been playing each other for years.

“The energy levels will need to be topped up after the first two days. It’s a great venue, great new tournament and the atmosphere is good tonight and I’m looking forward to playing Ali [Farag] and hopefully it will be another good atmosphere.”

Willstrop’s compatriot Declan James also enjoyed a strong performance in round one, overcoming Egyptian World Junior Champion Mostafa Asal in a comfortable straight-games victory.

The tall Englishman played with maturity to avenge his defeat to the teenager at December’s Black Ball Open and will now face Egypt’s Mohamed Abouelghar for a place in the quarter-finals.

“I tried to leave emotions out of it,” said James following his victory. “I had a very professional attitude and I’m happy with the level of squash I played.

“I’m playing Abouelghar tomorrow and I can’t wait. The last time we played it was a hard 3-2 in Chicago. I can’t wait to be back on the glass court having a huge battle because I feel that’s where I belong now.”

He will be joined by Daryl Selby in round two after he overcame France’s Lucas Serme in a gruelling 80-minute encounter, while George Parker was unable to make it a clean sweep for the English after he fell to defeat at the hands of Germany’s Raphael Kandra.

Meanwhile, Egypt’s Mazen Hesham also claimed an important victory, overcaming experienced Frenchman Mathieu Castagnet, to set up a second-round clash against Germany’s World No.5 Simon Rösner.

The talented Egyptian dominated on court in the opening exchanges against Castagnet to take a 2-0 lead, before the Frenchman began to battle back in the third to reduce the deficit. However, Hesham was able to remain mentally strong to close out the victory by an 11-8, 11-7, 4-11, 11-8 scoreline.

“I think playing Castagnet you can never give him an inch to get back into the match because he will just keep on fighting and fighting,” said the Egyptian following his round one win.

“If you have watched me recently then I am playing so much better than the last few months. I’m getting back better and better slowly and hopefully I can keep going up.”

The second round takes place on Wednesday April 10 at 12 noon local time (UTC+2) and the action will be broadcast live on SQUASHTV (rest of world), Eurosport Player (Europe only) and the official Facebook page of the PSA World Tour (excluding Europe and Japan). 

DPD Open Squash, Eindhoven, Netherlands.

Men’s Round One:
James Willstrop (ENG) bt Cameron Pilley (AUS) 3-2: 6-11, 11-7, 8-11, 11-9, 11-5 (65m)
Daryl Selby (ENG) bt Lucas Serme (FRA) 3-2: 4-11, 11-4, 11-8, 9-11, 11-5 (80m)
Declan James (ENG) bt Mostafa Asal (EGY) 3-0: 11-5, 11-3, 11-9 (38m)
Mazen Hesham (EGY) bt Mathieu Castagnet (FRA) 3-1: 11-8, 11-7, 4-11, 11-8 (57m)
Gregoire Marche (FRA) bt Borja Golan (ESP) 3-2: 9-11, 11-7, 6-11, 11-9, 11-5 (78m)
Raphael Kandra (GER) bt George Parker (ENG) 3-0: 11-7, 13-11, 11-3 (40m)
Joel Makin (WAL) bt [WC] Roshan Bharos (NED) 3-0: 11-3, 11-4, 11-5 (42m)
Chris Simpson (ENG) bt Tom Richards (ENG) 3-1: 14-12, 15-13, 7-11, 11-7 (70m)

Women’s Round One:
Millie Tomlinson (ENG) bt Milou van der Heijden (NED) 3-1: 11-7, 11-6, 9-11, 11-6 (46m)
Amanda Sobhy (USA) bt Danielle Letourneau (CAN) 3-1: 12-10, 6-11, 11-7, 11-8 (33m)
Rachael Grinham (AUS) bt Olivia Blatchford Clyne (USA) 3-2: 11-8, 11-9, 7-11, 8-11, 11-6 (45m)
Nele Gilis (BEL) bt Julianne Courtice (ENG) 3-1: 7-11, 11-8, 11-9, 11-7 (54m)
Yathreb Adel (EGY) bt [WC] Tessa ter Sluis (NED) 3-0: 11-3, 11-9, 11-4 (17m)
Hollie Naughton (CAN) bt Emily Whitlock (ENG) 3-2: 13-11, 7-11, 6-11, 11-6, 11-9 (56m)
Mariam Metwally (EGY) bt Coline Aumard (FRA) 3-1: 12-10, 9-11, 11-7, 11-6 (45m)
Nicol David (MAS) bt Rowan Elaraby (EGY) 3-1: 11-8, 9-11, 11-8, 11-7 (37m)

Men’s Round Two (Top half) April 10:
[1] Ali Farag (EGY) v James Willstrop (ENG)
Daryl Selby (ENG) v [5] Miguel Rodriguez (COL)
[7] Mohamed Abouelghar (EGY) v Declan James (ENG)
Mazen Hesham (EGY) v [4] Simon Rösner (GER)

Men’s Round Two (Bottom half) April 11:
[3] Karim Abdel Gawad (EGY) v Gregoire Marche (FRA)
Raphael Kandra (GER) v [6] Paul Coll (NZL)
[8] Marwan ElShorbagy (EGY) v Joel Makin (WAL)
Chris Simpson (ENG) v [2] Mohamed ElShorbagy (EGY)

Women’s Round Two (Top half) April 10:
[1] Raneem El Welily (EGY) v Millie Tomlinson (ENG)
Amanda Sobhy (USA) v [7] Alison Waters (ENG)
[5] Sarah-Jane Perry (ENG) v Rachael Grinham (AUS)
Nele Gilis (BEL) v [3] Nour El Tayeb (EGY)

Women’s Round Two (Bottom half) April 11:
[4] Camille Serme (FRA) v Yathreb Adel (EGY)
Hollie Naughton (CAN) v [6] Laura Massaro (ENG)
[8] Tesni Evans (WAL) v Mariam Metwally (EGY)
Nicol David (MAS) v [2] Nour El Sherbini (EGY)

Pictures courtesy of PSA

England name strong squad for Edgbaston Priory in May
By DONNA HELMER

England National Coach David Campion has named his nine-strong squad which will head to the European Men’s and Women’s Team Squash Championships at Edgbaston Priory Club, Birmingham from 1-4 May.

The squad has pedigree aplenty with 16 Commonwealth medals between them, with all but one competing in last year’s European Team Championships which saw England’s men and women claim silver and gold respectively.

England’s Men: Declan James, James Willstrop, Tom Richards, Daryl Selby and Adrian Waller.

England’s Women: Sarah-Jane Perry, Laura Massaro, Alison Waters and Victoria Lust.

Headlined by England No.1 Declan James, and featuring James Willstrop, who will be appearing in his 16th championships, England’s men will be bidding to claim the title they have won 40 out of 46 times since the tournament’s inception in 1973.

National Coach David Campion said: “Our men’s team is strong in all positions which makes us a very difficult team to get past. France and Germany are the obvious threats, however I’m confident the boys will be able to reach for that little bit extra as they always do when they pull on the England shirt.

“It’s an honour for Declan to lead out the team for the first time at these championships as England’s No.1 player.”

Boasting four female players inside the world top 15, and headlined by Commonwealth Games Silver medallist Sarah-Jane Perry, England’s women, 40-time European champions, will be striving to clinch their ninth consecutive title.

Commenting on the women’s team, Campion said: “England’s women are a formidable force in Europe, and are strong favourites once again to retain the title.

“Sarah-Jane has equalled her highest ever ranking of six, despite a recent setback following elbow surgery, and Victoria has showed great form to equal her highest ever ranking of 13 to complete the team alongside England legends Laura Massaro and Alison Waters.”

Tickets for the championships are available to purchase via eventbrite 

Pictures courtesy of  England Squash and PSA