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Will NHL players go to the Beijing Olympics?

Published in Hockey
Thursday, 01 July 2021 07:25

TAMPA, Fla. -- Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Victor Hedman said it would be an honor to represent his homeland of Sweden in the Olympics, calling the men's ice hockey tournament "as good as it gets on the international level."

That was in 2013.

He still hasn't gone.

He might never go.

Hedman was inexplicably snubbed from Sweden's 2014 Olympic squad and then sat out the 2018 Winter Games when the NHL couldn't cut a deal with the IOC and forbade its players from going to Pyeongchang.

As part of the collective bargaining agreement extension agreed to last summer, the NHL and the NHLPA committed to participate in the 2022 and 2026 Winter Olympics, "subject to negotiation of terms acceptable to each of the NHL, NHLPA, and IIHF (and/or IOC)." But on Monday, NHL commissioner Gary Bettman said time is running short on securing those terms for the Beijing Games next February. He doesn't know if they're going after all.

"We have real concerns about whether or not its sensible to have our players participating and us shutting down for an Olympic break," he said.

Hedman hadn't heard about Bettman's comments when I asked him about them. The veteran let out an exasperated chuckle and then it appeared any semblance of happiness had evacuated his body.

("I think you broke the best defenseman in the world," texted one fellow hockey writer.)

"The Olympics is one of the biggest dreams of mine and I haven't been able to participate in one. This might be the last chance I get. That sucks to hear," Hedman said. "When you get an opportunity to represent your country on the biggest stage, it's one of those things that you'll probably never forget. For me, it's obviously something I've been dreaming about my whole life and something I want to do before I hang up my skates."

How Brayden Point dominates the Stanley Cup playoffs

Published in Hockey
Thursday, 01 July 2021 05:05

TAMPA, Fla. -- Brayden Point swears nothing changes for him in the playoffs.

"You try and play the same way," said the Tampa Bay Lightning center, "but pucks have found their way into nets as of late."

That they have. Through 20 games, Point had 14 goals for the Lightning, while no one else in the playoffs had more than eight. Through 64 career playoff games, Point had a goals-per-game average of 0.56, the highest in the past 30 years outside of Mario Lemieux (0.67). His points-per-game average (1.16) puts him fourth overall in that three-decade span.

To watch Point in the playoffs -- including this year's Stanley Cup Final against the Montreal Canadiens -- is to watch someone at the height of his powers as a two-way player. His defensive acumen creates turnovers that he opportunistically transforms into offensive chances. He's one of the NHL's most agile skaters, despite less open ice in the playoffs. His stickhandling allows him to maneuver through the miniscule openings that postseason defenses allow. And the fact that his opponents know he's this dangerous in the postseason only works to his advantage.

"He can make plays when you double up on him. He can still make that high-skill play," said New York Islanders coach Barry Trotz, who said players like Point welcome tight defense. "They actually want you to double up on them. They want you to do certain things to them so they can find other people."

Only one other player in NHL history has scored more goals in consecutive playoff games than the nine in a row that Point tallied in the 2021 playoffs: Reggie Leach, who had 10 straight games with a goal in 1976 for the Philadelphia Flyers.

Point, 25, was a contender for the Conn Smythe Trophy last season when the Lightning won the Stanley Cup, but MVP honors went to defenseman Victor Hedman. He's back in the conversation this postseason should Tampa Bay repeat as champion, although goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy and winger Nikita Kucherov will certainly have their share of support.

"He just gets better and better. The spotlight is never too big for him," said Tampa Bay winger Blake Coleman, who has been Point's teammate and was previously his opponent while with the New Jersey Devils. "He just seems to step up, no matter what the challenge is. It just seems like there's no stage too big for Brayden. As a fan of the game, I'm just happy he's on our side."

Not bad for a third-round draft pick who many felt didn't skate well enough for NHL stardom.

SportFive – a sports business agency that represents some of the game’s biggest stars including the last two major champions, Jon Rahm and Phil Mickelson – has expanded its event management business with the acquisition of Chicago-based Global Golf Management.

The financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.

According to a press release, Global Golf Management has staged or assisted with operations at almost 1,000 tournaments around the globe, including this week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic and next month’s Olympic golf tournament.

“Expanding our presence in golf event management was a key objective when we launched our new golf strategy,” said Steve Loy, SportFive’s president of global golf. “Adding the Global Golf Management team to SportFive is a huge step towards becoming the global golf agency our global leadership team sought out to become.”

The move expands SportFive’s event management business which already includes a pair of PGA Tour events (American Express and Fortinet Championship) and an organizing role in Capital One’s The Match series.

Global Golf Management’s Jeff Raedle and Mike Harmon will join SportFive as co-executive vice presidents of golf events and will lead the company’s events operations.

Three par saves to close left Rory McIlroy fortunate that he wasn’t further off the pace to start the Irish Open.

McIlroy overcame a rough start to post an even-par 72 that put him eight back of Lucas Herbert’s early lead at Mount Juliet.

“I just didn’t feel like I did that much wrong,” McIlroy said after the round. “I just didn’t hole many putts for birdie, and it was just sort of one of those days. Overall, just a bit of no momentum going forward, and in the end, I did well to keep it at level par.”

Making his first appearance at the Irish Open since 2018, McIlroy played the first eight holes in 2 over par, making sloppy mistakes with his short-iron approaches and on the greens. He turned it around with birdies on Nos. 10 and 13 but was unable to build any further momentum. His opening 72 put him outside the top 70 and in need of a good round Friday to make the cut. He said he was heading to the range immediately after his post-round obligations to figure out why so many iron shots headed left.

“Just need to play better, and if I play better, I’ll shoot a better score,” he said. “I think it’s a bit early in the tournament to start to try to shoot certain scores and see what I need. If I play better tomorrow, I’ll shoot a better score and we’ll go from there.”

McIlroy, who is making his first start since a tie for seventh at the U.S. Open, will tee off at 3 a.m. ET Friday. He’s playing each of the next three weeks, culminating with the July 15-18 Open Championship.

Brooks is just being Brooks. 

Following the news that Bryson DeChambeau and his caddie Tim Tucker parted ways ahead of the Rocket Mortgage Classic, Brooks Koepka seemingly once again poked at his arch-nemesis. Just hours after the news broke, Koepka decided to show some love to his caddie, Ricky Elliott, who's been on Koepka's bag for nearly his entire pro career and all four of his major wins. 

Then Koepka declared it "Caddie Appreciation Day."

With Koepka, who's currently on vacation, continuing to fan the flames in the Brooks-Bryson beef, and with DeChambeau in Detroit as the tournament's defending champion, it remains to be seen how DeChambeau will respond to the newest chapter in their rivalry. 

USWNT's Morgan questions IOC policy on kids

Published in Soccer
Thursday, 01 July 2021 10:52

USWNT player Alex Morgan leaves for the Tokyo Olympics in a week's time, but says she is still unsure whether eased COVID-19 restrictions for nursing mothers will allow her to bring her 1-year-old daughter with her.

Some athletes have complained that they are being forced to choose between the Games and their young children, but organisers told Reuters on Wednesday "when necessary, nursing children will be able to accompany athletes to Japan."

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Organisers have barred family members of athletes from attending the Games due to COVID-19 safety protocols, while foreign spectators have been excluded and limits will be placed on domestic crowds.

"Still not sure what 'when necessary' even means. Is that determined by the mother or the IOC (International Olympic Committee)?" Morgan tweeted.

"We are Olympic mothers telling you, it is NECESSARY.

"I have not been contacted about being able to bring my daughter with me to Japan and we leave in seven days."

Tokyo organisers told Reuters in an emailed statement that participating countries' National Olympic Committees (NOC) should inform organisers about children who will be travelling with the athletes.

"Children must be within nursing age," organisers said.

"NOCs will be responsible for confirming to Tokyo 2020 that children who accompany athletes to Japan require nursing care."

Morgan's international teammate Megan Rapinoe echoed her comments.

"IOC is having a shocker here," Rapinoe tweeted. "If a mother/father/parent says it's necessary, it's NECESSARY!"

Canadian basketball player Kim Gaucher previously said she was being forced to decide between "being a breastfeeding mom or an Olympic athlete" because she cannot bring her 3-month-old daughter to Tokyo.

American long-distance runner Aliphine Tuliamuk had also complained about the issue, saying she "cannot imagine" going to the Games without her breastfeeding daughter.

The Tokyo Olympics, delayed from last year because of the COVID-19 pandemic, will begin on July 23.

USMNT reveals MLS-heavy squad for Gold Cup

Published in Soccer
Thursday, 01 July 2021 10:52

U.S. men's national team manager Gregg Berhalter has named a young, MLS-heavy roster to contest the Gold Cup beginning on July 10.

With players such as Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie being given time off following grueling club seasons -- they were not even named to the U.S. Gold Cup provisional roster -- Berhalter opted to look mostly to domestic players, with 19 of the 23 performers playing for MLS clubs. It's a young group as well, with five uncapped players, and a total of 14 having fewer than 10 international appearances.

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Atlanta United goalkeeper Brad Guzan is the most capped player with 64 appearances. In terms of outfield players, D.C. United attacker Paul Arriola leads the way with 35 international appearances.

All of the roster components are designed to create more depth for World Cup qualifying, which begins in September and will feature triple fixture windows in some instances.

"When we were looking at both the Gold Cup and the Nations League, we were thinking about one big roster picture, not two separate rosters. The idea was to prepare our entire player pool in a competitive CONCACAF format for World Cup qualifying," Berhalter said.

"When you look at this roster, it's basically another group of players that are going to get the opportunity to compete to win a trophy. By the end of this tournament, we're going to have virtually the entire player pool prepared for World Cup qualifying."

That said, Berhalter's expectation is that the U.S. will contend for the Gold Cup title.

"Our priority is to win the Gold Cup. Anytime we're competing for a trophy, we want to win it," Berhalter said. "It's going to take a good effort by the group, but it's certainly a focus of ours. We know the games are going to be difficult, and as we looked at the roster for this tournament, we focused on guys who are in form and can help the team win."

The USMNT is in Group B with Canada, Martinique and a team that will be determined through the 2021 Gold Cup prelims. The U.S. will play all of its group matches at Children's Mercy Park in Kansas City.

The U.S. team's first match will take place on July 11 against an opponent based on the outcome of the Gold Cup prelims round. The U.S. will face one of Barbados, Bermuda, Haiti or St. Vincent and the Grenadines. The prelims round will run July 2-6 in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. The U.S. will finish the group stage against Martinique on July 15 followed by a match against Canada three days later.

"A lot of the work we've done since 2019 is to prepare this group and also build team cohesion," Berhalter said. "With this roster, many of the players are already familiar with how we do things, are already familiar with our environment and are already familiar with our style of play. I think that's going to help us.

"When you look at some of these core guys, like Walker [Zimmerman], Sebastian [Lletget], Kellyn [Acosta], Jackson [Yueill], Paul [Arriola], Gyasi [Zardes] ... these are guys that have been in over these last two years and have been major parts of the team. Although it's a young team, we think it's an experienced team and we're looking forward to getting even more experience in a CONCACAF competition."

The United States has lifted the CONCACAF Gold Cup six times, most recently in the 2017 edition. The USMNT won the inaugural tournament in 1991 before being crowned regional champions again in 2002, 2005, 2007 and 2013.

USMNT GOLD CUP ROSTER BY POSITION (Club; caps/goals):

GOALKEEPERS (3): Brad Guzan (Atlanta United; 64/0), Sean Johnson (New York City FC; 9/0), Matt Turner (New England Revolution; 1/0)

DEFENDERS (8): George Bello (Atlanta United; 1/0), Reggie Cannon (Boavista/POR; 18/1), Shaq Moore (Tenerife/ESP; 5/0), Donovan Pines (D.C. United; 0/0), Miles Robinson (Atlanta United; 3/1), James Sands (New York City FC; 0/0), Sam Vines (Colorado Rapids; 3/0), Walker Zimmerman (Nashville SC; 14/2)

MIDFIELDERS (6): Kellyn Acosta (Colorado Rapids; 31/2), Gianluca Busio (Sporting Kansas City; 0/0), Sebastian Lletget (LA Galaxy; 24/7), Cristian Roldan (Seattle Sounders; 20/0), Eryk Williamson (Portland Timbers; 0/0), Jackson Yueill (San Jose Earthquakes; 12/0)

FORWARDS (6): Paul Arriola (D.C. United; 35/8), Daryl Dike (Orlando City; 3/1), Nicholas Gioacchini (Caen/FRA; 3/2), Matthew Hoppe (Schalke/GER; 0/0), Jonathan Lewis (Colorado Rapids; 7/2), Gyasi Zardes (Columbus Crew; 56/12)

Putting together a roster for a national-team tournament is full of innumerable moving parts. There's the form and health of the players, as well as the willingness of clubs to have their performers take part. Timing is also an issue.

The CONCACAF Gold Cup would at first glance appear to be immune from the whims of club managers given that it is a confederation championship. But there are the rules, and then there is reality, which explains why U.S. men's national team manager Gregg Berhalter leaned heavily into his collection of domestic players in putting together his roster for the 2021 edition of the tournament.

There will be no Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie or Tyler Adams, as they weren't even named to the provisional roster. Players need rest at some point, and there's also the desire to stay in the good graces of their clubs. The timing of the start of preseason in Europe also played a role. Berhalter highlighted the situation of Bryan Reynolds starting the year at AS Roma under a new manager in Jose Mourinho as one example, but there are others, including Greuther Furth midfielder Julian Green.

"We felt that it was more important for them to be in preseason with their team, and give them a good chance of making a positive impact with their new coaching staff or with their club, rather than to be in Gold Cup," Berhalter said during a Zoom call with reporters. "It was give-and-take, it was a juggling act, and it wasn't easy because we still want to put a team on the field that's going to compete to win the Gold Cup."

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So the focus on this tournament will be on giving playing time to select veterans like Nashville SC's Walker Zimmerman, Sebastian Lletget of the LA Galaxy and the Seattle Sounders' Cristian Roldan while also looking at some younger players who have shown well during the early parts of the MLS season.

"We think there's enough backbone in this group," he said. "We think there's enough veteran leadership in this group to make a run on winning Gold Cup."

In terms of the younger elements of the roster, there are more than a few compelling prospects. Sporting Kansas City midfielder Gianluca Busio has done plenty to impress in the early going, even as transfer rumors swirl around him. New York City FC defender James Sands and Portland Timbers midfielder Eryk Williamson are included as well. All three were omitted from the U23 roster that failed to qualify for the Tokyo Olympics.

In terms of explaining the big jump of Sands and Williamson, Berhalter explained that health was a factor. Sands struggled with injury toward the latter stages of last season, otherwise he would have been included in both the December and January camps. Berhalter added that a high ankle sprain sustained during the January camp hampered Williamson's progress. Both players have since recovered and are back to their best.

As for Busio? "It's about form, and his time has come," said Berhalter.

For the New York Red Bulls' Caden Clark, his time will have to come later after undergoing an appendectomy.

"He was a guy who I was really looking forward to working with," Berhalter said. "[He's] a really good player, [with] really good spatial awareness, really good balance with turning between the lines, really good vision from final pass and ability score a goal. It's really unfortunate how things work out sometimes, but we know that this kid has a bright future, and we're going to continue to monitor him when he goes to Leipzig."

Given all of these considerations, there are some vulnerabilities in the roster. Berhalter admitted that the team was "thin" at center-back once you get past Zimmerman and Atlanta United's Miles Robinson. It will be up to Sands and D.C. United's Donovan Pines to step in and provide depth.

The winger positions are another area that have some question marks, with Berhalter noting that "I don't think we have true wingers in this group." D.C. United's Paul Arriola and the Colorado Rapids' Jonathan Lewis are the closest fits, but Berhalter expects Schalke 04's Matthew Hoppe and SC Caen's Nicholas Gioacchini -- both strikers by trade -- to get some minutes out wide.

One player who isn't on the roster is LA Galaxy right-back Julian Araujo. Araujo holds dual citizenship with Mexico, and Berhalter said that the defender was "not ready to fully commit to the team." Had Araujo played in the Gold Cup, he would have been cap tied to the U.S., and with the U.S. team enjoying something of a logjam at right-back with Sergino Dest, Reggie Cannon and veteran DeAndre Yedlin, it would seem that Araujo is keeping his options open. But Berhalter made it clear he rates the Galaxy defender highly.

"We think [Araujo is] an outstanding player, and we think he can make a run at being a starter on this team," he said. "A lot of it's going to be up to his form and his development, but he's a young, talented player, and we think that he does have a future with this team."

Now the challenge is to progress far into the tournament with the players available and prepare for the bigger battles ahead.

"We get to work on another group," Berhalter said. "We get to solidify this pool so that when we go into qualifying, we know where everyone stands."

Only eight teams remain in Euro 2020, but the picture as to who is going to win this thing has barely cleared up at all. Some of the original batch of favorites are gone -- France, Portugal, Germany -- but according to ESPN's Soccer Power Index (SPI), no remaining team has even a 30 percent chance of winning the tournament. No matter who you think is the favorite, odds are good you'll be proven wrong.

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Each of the quarterfinalists have obvious flaws, and by the nature of tournament play (with no third-place matchup), seven of the eight will end their tournament with a loss. Even if we don't know who will win, we know the damning faults that will probably end each team's run. So let's talk about those.

(The teams below are listed in diminishing order of title odds, per SPI.)


Jump to: Spain | England | Denmark | Belgium | Italy | Switzerland | Czech Republic | Ukraine


Spain only give you good looks on goal

Euro title odds: 29%
Odds of winning quarterfinal vs. Switzerland: 72%

Despite starting with a couple of draws, Spain have been as statistically dominant as anyone in the 24-team field. They've hogged the ball as only they can -- 73% possession rate, 15 percentage points higher than anyone else -- and their xG differential is +1.52 per match, the best in the tournament. They've also pressured the ball with vigor: in a tournament full of dead legs and selective pressure, they're allowing just 8.2 passes per defensive action, easily the fewest (Denmark is second among quarterfinalists at 12.6).

Switzerland vs. Spain, Friday: Noon ET / 6 p.m. CET (ESPN, ESPN+)

And yet, for all this dominance, Spain has only briefly actually dominated. They crushed Slovakia, 5-0, but they only outscored three other opponents by a combined 6-4 over 300 minutes. Opponents are packing in their defenses and forcing Spain to undergo long stretches of sometimes aimless possession, but while they've begun to overcome that with vigor -- they've scored 10 goals in their last two matches -- another issue has emerged: opponents are creating extremely high-quality chances themselves.

When Spain won three consecutive major tournaments -- the 2008 Euros, 2010 World Cup and 2012 Euros -- they allowed an average of 9.2 shots per match at a tiny 0.06 xG per shot. In the three majors that followed, however, they allowed 8.5 shots per match at an increased 0.14 xG per shot. At Euro 2020, they're allowing only 6.0 shots per match ... at 0.27 xG per shot.

Opponents have already attempted 10 shots with an xG of 0.3 or higher, after taking only 14 in the entire 2014-18 sample. A lot of this damage came against Croatia, which attempted six of those 10 particularly high-quality shots, with five in a 12-minute span late in regulation and early in overtime. But Poland and Sweden each created two such close-range opportunities during the group stage as well.

Switzerland, Spain's next opponent, attempts 0.18 shots per possession (fourth among quarterfinalists), but averages only 0.11 xG per shot (second-worst). They've scored on three of their five particularly high-quality (over 0.3 xG) chances, however, and that includes Ricardo Rodriguez's failed penalty against France. They could very well capitalize if Spain's transition defense breaks down; even if they don't, far more clinical teams await in the semifinals or finals.

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1:38

McManaman: England have Euros in their hands

Steve McManaman believes England have a favourable route to make the Euro 2020 final following their win against Germany.

England don't shoot

Title odds: 24%
Odds of winning quarterfinal vs. Ukraine: 71%

England's first goal against Germany in the round of 16 was a perfect combined effort from four of the best creative and/or attacking players in the world. The ball quickly shuffled from the feet of Tottenham Hotspur's Harry Kane to Aston Villa's Jack Grealish, then Manchester United's Luke Shaw and, finally, Manchester City's Raheem Sterling into the net. Just a few minutes earlier, Grealish had subbed in for Arsenal up-and-comer Bukayo Saka, who started over Borussia Dortmund's (for now) Jadon Sancho, City's Phil Foden and United's Marcus Rashford.

Gareth Southgate has an embarrassment of riches from which to choose up front, and the goal was a perfect example of what superior attacking talent can create out of a reasonably neutral situation. It was also England's first official shot in more than 48 minutes.

Ukraine vs. England, Saturday: 3 p.m. ET / 9 p.m. CET (ABC, ESPN+)

England reached the 75th minute against Germany having attempted just three shots worth 0.17 xG. Two of the shots had come from defender Harry Maguire while Kane, the best centre-forward in the Premier League last year, had only 19 total touches to that point. They had also held Germany to only five shots worth 0.58 xG, of course, but Southgate's cautious tactics and defense-friendly lineup selections did what they've done all tournament: strangled both their and their opponent's respective attacks.

England has attempted by far the fewest shots, and scored the fewest goals, of the eight remaining teams.

They also have yet to allow a goal, of course, and while it's a red flag that opponents take more shots than they do, England averages 0.18 xG per shot (most of any quarterfinalist), and opponents average 0.08 (third-lowest).

There's no question that Southgate's "tournament football" approach -- stifling defense at the expense of creative ball progression -- has worked out pretty well. England made the semifinals of the 2018 World Cup and has taken 122 points from 58 total matches with the former Crystal Palace, Aston Villa and Middlesbrough defender in charge. But knowing you can probably create more and better scoring chances than your opponent while refusing to do so is a massive gamble, and if England loses any of the next three matches, it will almost certainly be because its neutered attack failed to produce enough chances for its most talented players to convert.

Denmark don't pressure shooters (and may have a goalkeeping issue?)

Title odds: 15%
Odds of winning quarterfinal vs. Czech Republic: 66%

From a statistical point of views, Denmark is the hardest team to poke holes in at the moment. Their xG differential of +1.52 per 90 minutes is tied with Spain's for the best in the tournament. They are taking the second-most shots and allowing the second-fewest. They are allowing opponents to start only 3.5 possessions per 90 in the attacking third (fewest) and allowing only 28% of opponents' possessions to finish there (second-fewest). They are controlling the ball (58% possession rate, second to Spain), and they have led for 46% of their possessions in the tournament (second to Belgium).

Czech Republic vs. Denmark, Saturday: Noon ET / 6 p.m. CET (ESPN, ESPN+)

Opponents haven't created nearly as many high-quality chances as Spain has allowed, but Denmark does lack when it comes to creating proper shot pressure. (The numbers in the table to the right are per StatsPerform.)

A lack of pressure isn't perfectly equivalent to allowing high-quality shots -- England is second-worst in this list despite four clean sheets from four games, after all -- but it's been an issue for the Danes. In Belgium's 2-1 win over Denmark, both of Belgium's goals came on low-pressure shots from very close range. (Russia's penalty goal also did, obviously.) They allowed Gareth Bale a quality look early in the round-of-16 match against Wales, too, which could have redefined how that match played out.

Facing minimal pressure allows you a chance to put a more accurate ball on goal, but you could also make a case that maybe Kasper Schmeichel should be saving more balls than he has. Using StatsPerform's Expected Goals on Target Conceded measure (xGOT) -- a stat looking specifically at ball placement of shots on goal to take a different look at xG -- opponents' shots on goal were worth about 2.2 xG, but produced four actual goals. Keeper Schmeichel's negative 1.8-goal difference is the second-worst in the tournament and continues a trend: his minus-5.1 goals prevented was the third-worst in the Premier League among regulars.

If your defense is giving talented opponents chances to line up quality shots and your keeper isn't stopping as many as he should, that seems like a pretty good way to lose.

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0:36

Del Piero: Italy won't win QF if they play like that again

Alessandro Del Piero is not confident about Italy's chances if they play like they did against Austria again.

Belgium are old and banged up

Title odds: 13%
Odds of winning quarterfinal vs. Italy: 53%

Going back to Sept. 2016, Belgium has lost just three of its last 58 matches. The core roster has played together for a long while; no team in this tournament knows itself more than Roberto Martinez's squad.

Belgium vs. Italy, Friday: 3 p.m. ET / 9 p.m. CET (ESPN, ESPN+)

Another way to phrase that last sentence: Belgium are old. We knew that heading into the tournament, and they looked absolutely gassed for most of the second half of their 1-0 win over Portugal in the round of 16; worse still, they've lost their two most creative players, Kevin De Bruyne and Eden Hazard, to injury for at least the quarterfinals.

They could use that creativity, too, because their actual shot quality has been lacking StatsPerform's Shooting Goals Added (SGA) subtracts a team's or player's xGOT to total customary, pre-shot xG. As one would expect, striker Romelu Lukaku has been world-class in his finishing ability, taking nine shots worth 1.36 xG, turning them into 1.89 xGOT and scoring three times. His SGA, then, is +0.54 (1.89 minutes 1.36). The rest of the team: -0.70 (2.41 minus 3.1). The team's average of 0.25 xGOT per shot on target is by far the worst of the quarterfinalists.

Written another way: they aren't taking full advantage of the shots they get, and since they don't pressure teams high up the pitch, they aren't creating an abundance of easy scoring chances either. And when they tried to explode forward in counter-attacking situations late against Portugal, it usually just resulted in a slow-motion break and a quick turnover.

This hasn't been a problem yet because the defense has been so sound. Opponents are firing high-frequency shots -- 0.17 per possession, most of the quarterfinalists -- but at a tournament-low 0.07 xG per shot. Plus, 96% of opponent shots have come with at least two defenders between the shot and the goal, by far the most. (For comparison, the average among quarterfinalists is 85%, and Spain and Denmark are both at 75%.)

They stay behind the ball at all times, and if you crack a shot through a wall of defenders, maybe the best keeper in the tournament, Thibaut Courtois, is behind them to reel it in. Despite a particularly old defensive line, this formula has worked quite well, but can Belgium commit proper numbers to attack if they fall behind? And can they take full advantage of the chances they create?

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1:03

Why Italy will be confident about Belgium quarterfinal

Steve McManaman feels Belgium looked a little lost in the second half of their 1-0 win vs. Portugal.

Italy take mostly bad shots

Title odds: 10%
Odds of winning quarterfinal vs. Belgium: 47%

As has been the case for most of the last three years, Italy did most of the big things right against Austria in the round of 16. Austria are loaded with talent from Europe's "Big 5" European Leagues (English Premier League, Italian Serie A, German Bundesliga, Spanish La Liga and French Ligue 1) and came out with a great game plan, but Italy completed a higher percentage of passes in regulation (88% to 81%), passed better in the attacking third as well (84% to 73%), created nearly twice as many shots (18 to 10) and won more loose balls (58 ball recoveries to 54).

You're not giving your opponent very many pathways to victory when you're executing that combination.

Belgium vs. Italy, Friday: 3 p.m. ET / 9 p.m. CET (ESPN, ESPN+)

And yet, Austria nearly found a path anyway, staying packed in front of the goal and allowing Italy to attempt long-range bombs. Italy might have taken eight more shots, but none had an xG greater than 0.09, and only two were taken within 10 meters of the goal. Not even including a goal that was disallowed by a narrow offside call, Austria had the two most high-quality shots in regulation, but Marcel Sabitzer missed one and had another saved by Gianluigi Donnarumma.

It broke open for Italy in overtime, with Federico Chiesa's masterful 95th minute goal (xG: 0.30) and Matteo Pessina's follow-up 10 minutes later (0.29). They advanced 2-1, but it wasn't as easy as it could have been.

Italy just assault you with chances while preventing you from doing the same. They lead the tournament with 0.24 shots per possession, and they're second-best in allowing only 0.08 in return. Almost none of the shots they allow are of any major quality, but few of theirs are, either. They have the shot-making ability to overcome this -- Manuel Locatelli, Pessina and Chiesa have scored five goals from just 2.29 xG -- but as we saw against Austria, the well can go dry when you're relying on scoring magical goals over more functional, high-quality looks.

One could see how this might be a problem against Belgium. Italy can hope to overrun an aging defensive line, but if they don't -- and if Belgium can keep bodies behind the ball as it usually does -- one could see quite a few low-xG, long-distance attempts taken at an elite keeper.

Switzerland ask far too much of their goalkeeper

Title odds: 5%
Odds of winning quarterfinal vs. Spain: 28%

Like Austria, Switzerland entered the round of 16 both (a) a significant underdog and (b) un-awed by the moment.

Most of their roster comes from players in Europe's "Big 5," including Arsenal's Granit Xhaka, Liverpool's (for now) Xherdan Shaqiri, Borussia Dortmund's Manuel Akanji and Borussia Monchengladbach's Yann Sommer, Nico Elvedi and Breel Embolo. This is a squad of battle-tested players, and it showed in their penalty shootout win over France. France overthought their tactics and blew opportunities, and the Swiss simply played their game.

Switzerland vs. Spain, Friday: Noon ET / 6 p.m. CET (ESPN, ESPN+)

They possess the ball safely; they're letting opponents begin only 4.4 possessions per 90 in the attacking third (third-lowest among quarterfinalists), they average 6.4 passes per possession (fourth), and they both take plenty of shots (0.18 per possession, fourth) and take them well (0.39 xGOT per shot on target, third). They are antagonistic -- Xhaka did everything to France's Paul Pogba but give him an atomic wedgie in the round of 16 -- and aren't to be taken lightly.

Unfortunately, they allow opponents to basically become Italy from the perspective of shot quantity. While quarterfinalist teams are allowing 0.12 shots per possession on average, Switzerland are allowing 0.21, many of decent quality. They have to operate well offensively because you're definitely going to score against them: they're allowing 1.85 goals per 90, easily the most among remaining teams (Ukraine is second-worst at just 1.38).

Sommer has performed admirably between the posts, but he's been asked to take on far too much and if the Swiss are to pull a quarterfinal upset, they'll have to take full advantage of the defensive breakdowns Spain gives them.

Czech Republic lose half its possessions almost immediately

Title odds: 4%
Odds of winning quarterfinal vs. Denmark: 34%

The Czechs have only eight players on a "Big 5" roster, and they've reached the quarterfinals through a combination of high-quality individual performances and a nice collection of underdog tactics.

Czech Republic vs. Denmark, Saturday: Noon ET / 6 p.m. CET (ESPN, ESPN+)

West Ham United's Tomas Soucek and Vladimir Coufal have been excellent, while forward Patrik Schick has been an outright revelation, scoring four times -- on shots of eight, nine, 11 and, of course, 49 meters. It's possible someone dramatically overpays Bayer Leverkusen for his services in the weeks to come after how good he's looked.

Playing the Czech Republic is a unique experience. They play at a tempo higher than most of the favorites are comfortable with -- their 98.8 possessions per match are far higher than that of any other quarterfinalist (Spain is second at 87.5) -- and they pounce on mistakes, starting more possessions in the attacking third than anyone but Spain. Only Spain has more set piece goals, too.

Even when underdogs find winning tactics, however, they generally come with a trade-off. The Czechs average only 19.2 seconds per possession, far fewer than any other quarterfinalist, and they lose 48.3 possessions per game from passes attempted in their defensive third. Only Ukraine come anywhere close in either category (24.3 and 39.7, respectively). They look to quickly get the ball out of dangerous areas and strike quickly, and they're willing to risk quick turnovers in the name of that.

This technique worked great in 3-2 wins over both Scotland and the Netherlands, but England and Croatia were able to stay organized and force both poor shots and impatience. The Czechs scored only once in those two matches. Is Denmark organized enough to manage the load? Will they get sucked into the type of track meet the Czechs want?

Ukraine create no easy chances whatsoever

Title odds: 2%
Odds of winning quarterfinal vs. England: 29%

Andriy Shevchenko's squad has proven to be both resilient and adaptive. They began to lose control of their round-of-16 match against Sweden -- the Swedes hit the post twice and generated half of their full-match xG between the 55th and 70th minutes -- but they adjusted, engaging in long, Simpsons-view-of-soccer possessions, stealing Sweden's legs and forcing overtime. Once there, they benefited from a Sweden red card and kept pecking away until they scored with a perfect Oleksandr Zinchenko cross and an Artem Dovbyk header.

Ukraine vs. England, Saturday: 3 p.m. ET / 9 p.m. CET (ABC, ESPN+)

In terms of goal and xG differential, this is the second-least successful team in the tournament besides Switzerland. Their defense is by far the most passive of the quarterfinalists, and the ball control game is glitchy -- they start just 3.5 possessions per 90 in the attacking third, by far the fewest, and opponents start 10.6 there, by far the most.

The Ukrainians average 0.12 shots per possession (fifth among quarterfinalists) and allow 0.16 (sixth), and they've had to rely on moments of individual genius to advance this far. That renders them inconsistent -- they were pretty helpless against Austria in a group-stage loss, and they lost five of six matches late last year, getting walloped 4-0 by Spain and 7-1 by France. But they're as dangerous as they are faulty because Manchester City's Zinchenko, Gent's Roman Yaremchuk and West Ham's Andriy Yarmolenko have delivered repeated and wonderfully creative moments.

Because of their spellbinding moments, they are capable of pulling another upset or two, but because of their faults, especially in defense, they are the team least likely to go all the way.

Tendai Chatara, the Zimbabwe fast bowler who has been absent from the Test arena for nearly three years, has found his way back into the team for the one-off match against Bangladesh starting July 7 in Harare.
The 30-year old seamer last played for Zimbabwe in November 2020 but he has been an active participant in domestic cricket this year and even led the bowling attack in an A team series against South Africa last month.
Zimbabwe have chosen an expanded squad of 20 members and, although they lost their last Test series, to Pakistan 2-0, the bulk of those players have been retained. There are four uncapped cricketers also in the mix - opener Takudzwanashe Kaitano and fast bowler Tanaka Chivanga, who were part of the last Test squad but did not get to play, batter Joylord Gumbie, who was among the reserves, and 19-year old Dion Myers, who forced himself into the reckoning with a half-century against South Africa A.
Zimbabwe will look to seniors like the captain Sean Williams, Craig Ervine and Brendan Taylor to bring their batting some backbone while their bowling features exciting talents like Blessing Muzarabani and Richard Ngarava.
Zimbabwe squad for one-off Test against Bangladesh: Regis Chakabva (wk), Tendai Chatara, Tendai Chisoro, Tanaka Chivanga, Craig Ervine, Joylord Gumbie, Luke Jongwe, Roy Kaia, Takudzwanashe Kaitano, Kevin Kasuza, Timycen Maruma, Wellington Masakadza, Blessing Muzarabani, Dion Myers, Richard Ngarava, Victor Nyauchi, Milton Shumba, Brendan Taylor, Donald Tiripano, Sean Williams (capt)

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