Big picture
It's pretty straightforward, as Wayne Parnell put it: South Africa are in the knockout stages. They must beat Netherlands to go through to the semi-finals and if you'd said that pre-tournament, many would have thought the conclusion foregone, but this has been a World Cup of surprises and perhaps there's one more?
If Netherlands beat South Africa in first of three Group 2 games on Sunday, Pakistan only need to beat Bangladesh to go through to the semi-finals. If South Africa win, the result of the second match between Pakistan and Bangladesh will dictate what India have to do to ensure they qualify. That's a lot of ifs before we even get to wondering what kind of contest this will be.
South Africa and Netherlands have only played one T20I against each other but they have some recent history. Netherlands were in South Africa for a three-match World Cup Super League ODI series last November, when the omicron variant of Covid-19 hit and they left the tour early, but not before taking 10 points off South Africa in a washed-out match. South Africa will host Netherlands again in April 2023 and those matches are crucial to ensuring their automatic qualification for the ODI World Cup so there's some wider context to the clash. And there's also the obvious niggle: Netherlands are coached by a South African - Ryan Cook - and have as many as four South African-born players in their squad. Even if South Africa may not know much about the Dutch approach in the shortest format, they will know plenty about the players involved.
For South Africa, their blueprint has mostly worked but there's still work to do in the batting department. They will view this game as a final opportunity to get the likes of Temba Bavuma and Tristan Stubbs into form and a chance to make a statement about whether they can justify the favourites' tag placed on them just a few days ago.
Form guide
South Africa LWWWL(last five completed matches, most recent first)
NetherlandsWLLLL
In the spotlight
In a pace pack that seems to have it all, Kagiso Rabada has flown under the radar. He has taken only two wickets from four matches so far and has the highest economy rate of any of the South African bowlers. In dealing with swing from Parnell, pace from Anrich Nortje and Lungi Ngidi's slew of slower balls, line-ups have identified Rabada as a bowler they can target, which is unlikely to sit well with him. Although he has long shied away from being called the leader of the attack, Rabada is South Africa's most experienced bowler, and he will want to turn in a big performance as the tournament approaches the business end.
Team news
David Miller sat out the match against Pakistan with lower back spasms and South Africa will be keen to get him up and running as soon as he is fit. If that's in this game, Tristan Stubbs may miss out with Heinrich Klaasen retaining his place. South Africa may also bring back Keshav Maharaj at the expense of one of the quicks.
South Africa: : (possible) 1 Quinton de Kock (wk), 2 Temba Bavuma, 3 Rilee Rossouw, 4 Aiden Markram, 5 David Miller, 6 Heinrich Klaasen/Tristan Stubbs 7 Wayne Parnell, 8 Keshav Maharaj/ Anrich Nortje, 9 Lungi Ngidi, 10 Tabraiz Shamsi, 11 Kagiso Rabada
After a convincing win over Zimbabwe, Netherlands are likely to go in unchanged.
Netherlands: 1 Stephan Myburgh, 2 Max O'Dowd, 3 Tom Cooper, 4 Colin Ackermann, 5 Bas de Leede, 6 Scott Edwards (capt, wk), 7 Roelof van der Merwe, 8 Logan van Beek, 9 Fred Klaassen, 10 Paul van Meekeren, 11 Brandon Glover
Pitch and conditions
An early start may prove challenging for the batters because the ball won't skid on as it does at night. Expect inconsistent bounce and a slowish start, although runs may come from the short, square boundaries. The surface also won't offer the quicks as much as some of the other venues, which could take the sting out of the contest to some degree. There's been rain in the lead-up to this match but Sunday's forecast is clear.
Stats and trivia
- South Africa and Netherlands have met once in a T20I before, at the 2014 World Cup. South Africa won by six runs.
- In four matches at this venue so far in this World Cup, the average first innings score is 164, and the chasing team has only won once.
Quotes
"It's a crucial game for us. In T20 cricket, teams get closer. We still have to play well to beat them. They are a quality side. They've shown they can play good cricket. Hopefully it's only in patches and if we bring our A game, I reckon we should have enough."
South Africa are hoping the game won't get as close as it did against Pakistan, according to Wayne Parnell
"We do understand the significance of the game if we do beat South Africa. But obviously for us it's just playing a game and beating South Africa, so we don't think too far outside of that. But we just have to do what we've done well, and if we do that well against South Africa, you never know, we might have a good day against them."
Roelof van der Merwe on the fact that Pakistan's fate depends on them beating South Africa
Firdose Moonda is ESPNcricinfo's South Africa correspondent
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