Big Picture - Another loss could be curtains for KKR
With four games to go for Kolkata Knight Riders, they are in must-win territory if they are to finish on 16 points - that was the magic number last season for a top-four finish, so it's likely win or bust for Nitish Rana's side.
Punjab Kings have a little more breathing room - even with one more defeat they can get to 16, but that's about all the margin for error they have. If they don't want to follow KKR into do-or-die territory, then Kings need to win at Eden Gardens - and in a convincing manner too, to boost their poor net run rate.
Team news - Kagiso Rabada or Nathan Ellis?
Ellis is skiddy and has a knack of taking wickets across all phases, with three scalps apiece in the powerplay, the middle, and the death this season. His powerplay economy of 6.8 in six innings is stunning, and so he could start ahead of Rabada. But Kings will also have in mind that Rabada's extra pace and incisive short balls could trouble KKR's Indian batters and Russell and Sunil Narine. Kings could also add a batter-cum-spinner option by bringing Sikandar Raza in for Matthew Short.
Knight Riders are likely to stick with the same batting order and spin group. How the Indian seamers line up is anyone's guess though, with two of Vaibhav Arora, Harshit Rana and Umesh Yadav expected to start. Neither side has injury concerns.
Form guide
KKR: WLWLL (last five matches, most recent first)
Punjab Kings: LWLWL
Impact Player strategy
Even though Suyash has been KKR's second-best bowler of the tournament, the side has not shied away from bringing left-arm spinner Anukul Roy into the XI ahead of him, as an all-round option in the first innings if there's been a batting collapse. If KKR chase, Suyash is the favourite for the Impact Player job.
Probable XII: 1 Jason Roy, 2 Rahmanullah Gurbaz (wk), 3 Venkatesh Iyer, 4 Nitish Rana, 5 Rinku Singh, 6 Andre Russell, 7 Shardul Thakur, 8 Sunil Narine, 9 Harshit Rana, 10 Vaibhav Arora, 11 Varun Chakravarthy, 12 Suyash Sharma/Anukul Roy
Punjab Kings
Prabhsimran Singh is the likely Impact Player, most probably replacing an overseas pace bowler after their spell is done if Kings chase.
Probable XII: 1 Shikhar Dhawan, 2 Prabhsimran Singh, 3 Matthew Short/Sikandar Raza, 4 Liam Livingstone, 5 Jitesh Sharma (wk), 6 Sam Curran, 7 M Shahrukh Khan, 8 Rishi Dhawan, 9 Harpreet Brar, 10 Rahul Chahar, 11 Arshdeep Singh, 12 Nathan Ellis/Kagiso Rabada
The big question
Who should be Punjab's four overseas players?
696 votesLivingstone, Curran, Short, Rabada
Livingstone, Curran, Raza, Rabada
Livingstone, Curran, Short, Ellis
Livingstone, Curran, Raza, Ellis
Stats and trivia - Contrasting spin numbers
- The two sides have the two lowest averages for opening stands this tournament. KKR's first wicket averages 20 while Kings' corresponding number is 20.1.
- Russell has just returned to form and he will be keen to face Rabada and Curran. He has hit Rabada for 79 in 39 balls with only one dismissal in seven games. He has also smashed 30 runs in 15 balls against Curran, but has been dismissed twice in four innings.
- Do KKR introduce Chakravarthy early? He has dismissed Dhawan three times in five innings.
- Russell (175) and Livingstone (166) have the two highest strike rates in IPL history (among batters who have aggregated at least 500 runs).
- KKR's spinners have taken the most wickets as a unit (35) after ten games in IPL 2023 while Kings' have the fewest (12).
Pitch and conditions
No total seems safe on the batting-friendly Kolkata surface. The ball does turn but not menacingly enough. Expect another game where 200+ is par (the average first-innings winning total across four games here at IPL 2023 so far has been 222).
It should be a dry Monday evening.
Quotes
"We are taking it one game at a time. We have earlier won games from impossible situations, so this is not impossible either. We are staying confident."
KKR seamer Vaibhav Arora on the team's mindset ahead Monday's match
Sreshth Shah is a sub-editor at ESPNcricinfo. @sreshthx
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