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Sri Lanka have played one game in the Asia Cup so far, and won it. But if things go awry against Afghanistan on Tuesday, they very well could be out of the tournament; such is the nature of it. But for that to happen, Afghanistan need to win - and win big. How big will depend on the precise match situation, but hypothetically speaking, if they were to score 275 runs batting first, they would need to win by a margin of at least 68 runs, or chase down any target in 35 overs or less.

Suffice to say this gives Sri Lanka a pretty nifty buffer, especially on a Lahore surface that has been positively greedy for runs. This will also be, you imagine, quite a relief for Sri Lanka's batters, who have over the past month - primarily during the LPL - been subjected to far less batter-friendly tracks.

That said, the toss is likely to play a pretty major role. While the team bowling second might have to contend with dew, it's an arguably rougher deal for the side bowling first as they would have to do so in the searing Lahore heat. Indeed, speaking post match on Sunday after their win against Afghanistan, Bangladesh captain Shakib Al Hasan brought it up unprompted as one of the key reasons they won that match, pointing out that it wouldn't have been easy for Afghanistan to bat after fielding in that heat for 50 overs.

Match conditions aside, Sri Lanka facing Afghanistan should be a fairly even contest. Of the last five completed ODIs between these two sides, Sri Lanka edge it 3-2. And this is now a Sri Lanka side without pretty much their entire first-choice bowling attack. These sides, however, don't tend to have too many nail-biters, with four of those five games ending in pretty dominant wins.

If you're of Afghan persuasion, that's a promising sign; but you have to imagine the odds are still pretty heavily stacked in Sri Lanka's favour. Against Bangladesh, Sri Lanka showed that even with injuries, they still possess enough firepower and nous to take ten wickets in a match, while Afghanistan still have to disprove the notion that their batting is a soft touch once you get past the top order.

Form guide

Afghanistan LLLLL (last five ODIs, most recent first)
Sri Lanka WWWWW

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Team news

Afghanistan (probable): 1 Rahmanullah Gurbaz (wk), 2 Ibrahim Zadran, 3 Rahmat Shah, 4 Hashmatullah Shahidi (capt), 5 Najibullah Zadran, 6 Mohammad Nabi, 7 Gulbadin Naib 8 Karim Janat, 9 Rashid Khan, 10 Mujeeb Ur Rahman, 11 Fazalhaq Farooqi

Sri Lanka (probable): 1 Dimuth Karunaratne, 2 Pathum Nissanka, 3 Kusal Mendis (wk), 4 Sadeera Samarawickrama, 5 Charith Asalanka 6 Dhananjaya de Silva, 7 Dasun Shanaka (capt), 8 Dushan Hemantha/Dunith Wellalage, 9 Maheesh Theekshana, 10 Kasun Rajitha 11 Matheesha Pathirana

Pitch and conditions

Scores of 300 are par for the course in Lahore, with Bangladesh hitting 334 last time out without much trouble. The weather too is expected to be hot and humid, with highs touching 37 degrees potentially, although it should settle around 26 degrees by evening. Winning the toss and batting first seems a no-brainer.

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