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Rugby World Cup: 'Scotland not even in Ireland's rear-view mirror'

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Published in Rugby
Sunday, 08 October 2023 09:16

As they made their way off the pitch in Paris and disappeared into the torture chamber of their own inner-sanctum, there was a certain sense of deja vu about Scotland.

Different stadium, different city, different opponent, but the same slow retreat, the same hang-dog look, the same words in the aftermath of Paris on Saturday as there were in Yokohama four years ago, when Japan put them out of the World Cup.

It was so reminiscent of 2019, it was spooky. It was obvious some players had been crying. It was clear they were still emotional and still confused.

Nobody wanted to be there. Nobody wanted to ask or answer those questions, but there we all were in nowheresville again. Scotland went full circle on Saturday.

Their mission against Japan was as good as over after 43 minutes, by which time the hosts led 28-7.

At Stade de France, hope didn't last nearly as long, An Irish try after a minute, a big Caelan Doris turnover after five, a Peter O'Mahony line-out steal after 10, and then 18 phases of Scottish pressure, each one met with belligerent Irish defence.

Scotland had to score in those moments. Like a card player in the casino, they went all-in on a try as opposed to playing safe with a kick for points. And they lost. Scotland's metre-count was in the negative when that passage of play came to a shuddering halt.

By their decision-making, they had given Ireland a chance to show much they love defending. They relish it. They absolutely lap it up. And they're ridiculously good at it.

The match stats at that point showed Scotland had 83% territory, 74% possession and zero points.

Only 12 minutes had been played, but Scotland's fate had already been sealed. They traipsed back from that failure in the Irish 22 with the body language of bruised men.

Ireland fed off their disappointment. O'Mahony stole a second line-out, Andrew Porter won another turnover, Hugo Keenan scored another try. Over and out. As clean and as clinical as you like.

In the past against Ireland, a game of what-ifs has been played by the Scots. What if they'd taken all of their chances and been more ruthless? What if they'd done, or hadn't done, this, that and the other at critical times.

People can play those games again if they like. What if the Scottish players had kept their traps shut on Thursday instead of promising that Ireland's winning run would end?

What if Gregor Townsend had gone for Chris Harris over Huw Jones, or if Hamish Watson was on the bench? Or if they'd taken those early points, or if Blair Kinghorn and Jamie Ritchie didn't get injured - or if they'd turned up just like they said they would?

The harsh truth is none of it mattered a damn. Scotland could reverse all of those calls and go back out to play Ireland again in a week and they would lose again. When Ireland play like this, then the only thing up for discussion is not the victor but the margin of victory.

There isn't a Scotland player that would get in this Ireland team. On a 17-match winning run, during which they have beaten all-comers, the gulf is impossibly wide.

Amid the disappointment and anger at such a drubbing there has to be acceptance of reality. As a rugby nation, Ireland have disappeared over the horizon, They can't even see Scotland in their rear-view mirror.

'It might not feel like it, but this is the best of it'

There's a bigger truth in all of this. Scotland can only play one way, a game of wide-wide with Finn Russell pulling every attacking string.

That style can be thrilling and it has won them some big Test matches, but it's never going to win them a title. It's too one-dimensional, too easy for the biggest beasts to shut down, as South Africa and Ireland did.

Ireland can play the Scotland way, they can play the South Africa way and they can play a hybrid of the two - and that adaptability has seen them go on this extraordinary run.

If Scotland are stopped from getting to the outside channels, there is no plan B. They don't have the players. How much impact did Darcy Graham and Duhan van der Merwe have on Saturday?

We can go deeper on this. Ireland's player count is rising all the time. Success breeds interest.

As well as making inroads into traditional GAA territory and finding rugby players who might otherwise have been hurlers or gaelic footballers.

Andy Farrell's squad has a high proportion of players drawn from the rugby programmes of private Dublin schools, partly funded by wealthy alma mater who want to give something back.

These programmes are unbelievably sophisticated and well-resourced. There are kids leaving school who are all-but ready to play professional rugby. A year or so in the Leinster academy and they start appearing for the senior team.

The conveyor belt of talent is speeding up. Ireland's Under-20s won a Grand Slam this year, while also making the final of the Junior World Cup. They say the next generation will be even better.

They also won a Grand Slam in 2022 and 2019. There are so many young players coming through that the IRFU doesn't really know what to do with them all. It only has four teams to house them in.

In Scotland, the situation is the polar opposite. The under-20s have won one of their past 15 Six Nations games. They've had a miserable time on the world stage and there's no sense anything is going to change.

The SRU's big idea to improve things is to dump an under-20s side into the Super Series, where they've lost every game and some by massive margins. It's a sticking plaster across a gaping wound.

The lack of a young cavalry coming over the hill only made Saturday more painful.

It was a sore and sobering night, but these, in case you missed it, are the good times. Scotland are world number five and deservedly so. Put them in the other half of the World Cup draw and they would still be in the tournament.

They have improved in the last four years, they've won in Paris and in Twickenham, they're normally good for three wins in the Six Nations these days.

Without a stream of young players ready to go, that's as good as it's going to get. Twenty players who were in Scotland's World Cup squad in 2019 didn't make it to France - some retired, some too old and not good enough anymore.

That's a fairly normal turnover in a four-year cycle. Next time, Scotland will not have WP Nel, Grant Gilchrist, Richie Gray. They very probably won't have Watson or Harris. And, at 35, may not even have Russell.

Others will drift off the scene, but who will replace them? As dispiriting as Saturday was, the big picture shows an even bleaker landscape.

This is the best of it. Right here, right now. It may not feel like it, but it is.

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