British combined events athlete Harry Kendall looks at the decathletes and heptathletes most likely to shine at the Games

With the European Championships concluded and some big performances banked, we now have a better idea of where we stand with the combined events rankings and who has the best chance for a medal come the Olympic Games in Paris.

On behalf of Neuff Athletic, I will be examining the athletes chances in both the heptathlon and the decathlon and come forward with my predictions for the top three in both at the Games.

Breaking down the decathlon

I may be biased, but I strongly believe the decathlon is the highest quality and most exciting event at this years Games.

Potentially, up to 16 people by my count could score over 8500 points, a mammoth score which could get you close to the medals at almost every major championships.

As my coach often likes to remind me, decathlon is 10 events put together, and whomever may be leading before the final event, could even finish outside of the medals come to the end of the 1500m.

It is difficult to pick a favourite for the Olympic title, but Ill start with the current world leader in the decathlon. The mighty German, Leo Neugebauer.

Although his breakout season may well have been last year, this season Neugebauer has kicked on to score a personal best 8961 points in the USA. He placed fifth in Budapest after a few missteps on day two, meaning he will be desperate to make amends this time around.

Neugebauer is spectacularly strong across the board, particularly with his enormous shot and discus throws, the latter of which he holds the world decathlon best with over 57m. His biggest weakness, however, occurs at the very end of the decathlon, in the javelin and the 1500m.

Most decathletes appear to labour around the 1500m due to their sizeable frames, particularly in comparison with professional middle-distance runners, but the NCAA champion does tend to drop more points than most in this discipline.

When you have athletes such as his fellow German Niklas Kaul capable of performances like a 78m javelin and a 4:15 1500m, (compared to Neugebauers 58.99 and 4:42) Neugebauer will need a sizeable lead before these two events to be sure of his gold medal.

The Canadians have been a fairly dominant force in multi-events for the best part of the decade and none have led the charge better than Damian Warner and Pierce Lepage.

Warner is the reigning Olympic champion, while Lepage is the reigning world champion. Together, they were hoping to continue this dominance in 2024 although Lepage has sadly withdrawn from the Games due to injury.

Warner just keeps getting better with the more experience he gains, running the fastest times over the 100m and the 110m hurdles consistently in the decathlon, as well as being a world-class long jumper.

His throws and pole vault may not be quite as huge as athletes like Neugebauer or Kaul, but the wealth of experience at major championships and the excellent form he has shown this year will make him a main contender come Paris.

Switching our attention to Europe, we have a pair of dangerous young Norwegians, desperate to make a big impact on the biggest stage.

Markus Rooth and Sander Skotheim have been trading the Norwegian record between them recently with both exceeding 8600 points and accompanying that with many individual personal bests to boot.

They are remarkably similar across many decathlon events. However, Skotheim boasts an incredible 2.20m high jump and 5.35m pole vault, whereas Rooth is superior to his fellow countryman in all the throwing disciplines.

To anyone in the multi-events world, it would not come as a shock if one or both of these athletes were to leave Paris with an Olympic medal.

Finally, well move over to the Baltics and cover a couple of Estonians who are also on the up and in the hunt for medals.

Johannes Erm is the Estonian leader this year and the European champion from Rome earlier this year. His personal best score of 8764 is simply world-class. Erm has no noticeable weaknesses in his decathlon and excels on the track over the 400m in particular.

His compatriot Karel Tilga is around 80 points behind on his personal best score, but could quickly upset the apple cart should any of the stronger favourites slip up.

Tilga had somewhat of a breakthrough in 2023 and despite having sparsely competed so far this year, has shown good form in his limited competition time. He will be the most dangerous come the latter stages of the competition and a 72m javelin and 4-minute 20s 1500m is not to be sniffed at.

PREDICTION
Gold: Damian Warner
Silver: Leo Neugebauer
Bronze: Karel Tilga

Where we stand with the heptathlon

The heptathlon is an ever-changing landscape and can be one of the toughest disciplines to predict, due to the high rate of dropouts and the volatility of the event.

After surviving a little peril in qualifying for the Games, Nafi Thiam has put down a huge marker in Rome at the European Championships, winning the championships with a score of 6848.

The Belgian showed she was well and truly back to her best, recording an enormous score (her third best), despite it being her first heptathlon since 2022. As long as her body stays in one piece, she now becomes the overwhelming favourite for the Paris Games.

In Rome, she displayed that her strengths have strengthened and her weaknesses have started fading away, notably a good personal best in the 800m with 2:11. It is difficult to see anyone overcoming this fabulous competitor. Still, there are a few out there who may fancy their chances of causing a huge upset.

Katarina Johnson-Thompson will be the athlete in pole position to take over, should the two-time Olympic champion slip up at any moment.

Johnson-Thompson had a tumultuous time in Rome, dropping out of the heptathlon before the 200m. It would be safe to assume the European Championships was being used for competition practice, with all eyes from her and her team on Olympic gold in Paris, a title that has so far eluded the Briton.

Budapest 2023 provided somewhat of a resurgence for the two-time world champion, showing a fierce competitor some had come to think had gone. KJT will have to be near perfect to wrestle the gold away from Thiam, and really capitalise on her strongest events.

At her best, she is a similar high jumper to Thiam, however, Johnson-Thompson has struggled to find the form which helped her leap to a best of 1.98m in Rio 2016, and with this being an event Thiam is consistently world-class at, it must be said that anything below a top tier jump should cost her big points.

A pleasing development for fans of the British superstar has been the improvement in her throwing events (traditionally her weakest) in the last couple of years. These are events in which the Belgian also excels, but if Johnson-Thompson can close the gap in the throws and minimise the damage, shell have a great shot at pushing the reigning champ all the way.

There are, of course, other contenders for the gold and other medals in Paris, and not to be overlooked, despite having an injury-troubled winter, the mercurial American star Anna Hall.

Hall was hampered by injury in the early part of the season, recovering from knee surgery to fix a problem attained last season. The American eventually found her form at the right time at the US Trials, scoring in excess of 6600 points to secure her spot in Paris.

One would ultimately assume that Hall will continue to improve up until the Games, slowly piecing back together the technical elements she may have lost briefly due to the surgery.

Her biggest weapon comes at the end of the heptathlon, in the 800m, where no one can realistically match her over this distance. Many experts are predicting her to dip under the two-minute barrier, which in itself is world-class 800m running and would have qualified her for the Games in the individual event.

Whilst Johnson-Thompson is a proficient 800m runner, Thiam is a few seconds behind, despite her recent personal best, so if it is all to play for come the last event, it could be the American who comes out on top.

Other contenders for the crown and the medals include world indoor champion Noor Vidts from Belgium, a remarkably consistent performer who will be ready to swoop in, should any of her competitors slip up.

Annik Kalin will be hoping to bring a medal back to Switzerland and is helped by a world-class long jump of 6.84m which should take a lot of points out of the rest of the field.

Anouk Vetter, from the Netherlands, has a PB of well over 6800 points, making her a strong medal contender. If she can make use of her monstrous throwing events (59m in the javelin and 16m+ in the shot put) as well as putting together a solid series in the rest of the events, she could be in with a shout of not only a medal but the title itself.

Finally, one of the more heart-warming stories to follow is that of the Polish athlete, Adrianna Sulek-Schubert.

Having had her first child earlier this year, she has produced a magnificent comeback to make this years Olympics.

Extra work may need to be executed if shes eyeing up a podium placement, yet she is still a fierce competitor with one of the best heptathlon scores in the field. If I were a betting man, I would not count out the world indoor silver medallist for an Olympic medal.

PREDICTION
Gold: Nafi Thiam
Silver: Anna Hall
Bronze: Anouk Vetter

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