A rivalry that started with intensity in a one-off Test in 1992 has fizzled out into a one-sided affair with South Africa victorious in 22 out of 32 matches against West Indies, and vanquished in just three. They have never lost a Test series (the emphasis being on multiple matches in a tour) to West Indies, and last lost a match to them 17 years ago. But this is not the South Africa that bossed the away-from-home arena in the mid 2000s; and with inexperience laced through the visitors' line-up, hosts West Indies will believe anything is possible in this series, ahead of the first Test in Port of Spain.
It was only six months ago that South Africa lost a Test series to New Zealand for the first time, and though that was with a makeshift squad, it suggested something about the shifting sands of long-format depth. South Africa, whose provincial players only have seven red-ball matches a season, have chosen to invest the bulk of their resources into the kind of cricket that brings in, rather than costs, money. West Indies, on the other hand, continue to spend money developing the first-class game.
Despite having a domestic system that costs more than anywhere else in the world to run because of their island geography, West Indies play red-ball cricket at the Under-17 and Under-19 levels, and at the academy level too; but whether they are reaping rewards remains up for debate.
This January, West Indies beat Australia in a Test for the first time in over two decades - for comparison, South Africa did not get a win in Australia in 2022-23 - but have not won a series against a World Test Championship (WTC) team since beating Bangladesh in 2022. Just before that, they beat England in a series, something South Africa have not managed since 2012.
Pound for pound, the recent history of these squads suggests they don't have much between them as they both enter yet another rebuild phase against the backdrop of continued T20 league expansion. In personnel terms, they are similarly matched too.
Both have batting line-ups with newcomers hoping to establish themselves: Mikyle Louis and Kirk McKenzie for West Indies, and Tony de Zorzi and Tristan Stubbs for South Africa. Both sides have an experienced seamer - Kemar Roach and Kagiso Rabada - and some fiery youngsters in Shamar Joseph and Nandre Burger. And both are desperate for points in this WTC cycle. At the least, that could mean we see the most competitive contest between these two sides in 30 years, which would be a very satisfactory outcome indeed.
Form Guide
West Indies: LLLWL (Last five Tests, most recent first) South Africa: LLLWW
In the Spotlight: Kavem Hodge and David Bedingham
One of the positives from West Indies' last two tours is the rise of Kavem Hodge, who scored 71 against Australia in Brisbane, and 120 in Nottingham and 55 in Birmingham against England. Given that the rest of the batters have struggled for regular runs, it's easy to argue that Hodge has been West Indies' most consistent recent performer, which could result in more pressure on his shoulders. But West Indies are actively working to reduce that. Head coach Andre Coley told ESPNcricinfo that he will not add to Hodge's expectations, and has just asked him to continue playing the way he has done so far. Hodge has already stood up to Australia and England's attacks, and it will be interesting to see how he performs at home against South Africa's.
His Test career is only four matches old, but David Bedingham is already been spoken of as a mainstay in the South Africa line-up. And it's easy to see why. The runs have been coming in the county circuit since his century against New Zealand in February. With the Championship just over the halfway mark, Bedingham is currently the leading run-scorer with 926 runs in 14 innings for Durham. His haul includes five centuries, four of them scored in successive innings against Hampshire, Lancashire (two in two innings) and Somerset, and comes into this Test series in exceptional form. Bedingham had a slight hamstring injury heading into the West Indies tour, but scored 84 in the warm-up match and is expected to play a big role in this line-up.
Team News: Extra spinner for both sides?
Alzarri Joseph has been rested for this series, but Roach is back as the leader of the attack after missing the Tests against England due to injury. Roach last played a Test in January, but has been in action for Surrey, where he took 18 wickets in six matches. He bowled 13 overs in the warm-up match for the Champions XI against South Africa, with figures of 0 for 35.
But with Roach a certain starter, West Indies' biggest conundrum will be whether to play all of Jason Holder, Jayden Seales and Shamar Joseph or leave one of them out for left-arm spinner Jomel Warrican or uncapped offspinner Bryan Charles.
West Indies: (probable) 1 Kraigg Brathwaite (capt), 2 Mikyle Louis, 3 Kirk McKenzie, 4 Alick Athanaze, 5 Kavem Hodge, 6 Jason Holder, 7 Joshua Da Silva (wk), 8 Gudakesh Motie, 9 Jayden Seales/Jomel Warrican, 10 Kemar Roach, 11 Shamar Joseph
Like West Indies, South Africa will have to choose between a second spinner or a fourth seamer to balance their attack, though both options could leave them a batter short. Wiaan Mulder provides a seam-bowling all-round option, and has batted in the top five recently, which may give South Africa's line-up some length. But conditions may dictate that Dane Piedt is preferred to accompany Keshav Maharaj.
Both Piedt and Maharaj can occupy the crease, and if selected, will be expected to put in a shift with the bat. Lungi Ngidi is set to play just his second Test since December 2022, with Rabada and Nandre Burger expected to open the bowling.
South Africa (probable): 1 Aiden Markram, 2 Tony de Zorzi, 3 Tristan Stubbs, 4 Temba Bavuma (capt), 5 David Bedingham, 6 Kyle Verreynne (wk), 7 Wiaan Mulder/Dane Piedt, 8 Keshav Maharaj, 9 Lungi Ngidi, 10 Kagiso Rabada, 11 Nandre Burger
Pitch and Conditions: Expect rain in Port of Spain
"Everything tells us it's going to spin. The question is how early or how late in the game it's going to spin," Shukri Conrad, South Africa's Test coach said ahead of the game. Apart from seeing a surface that Conrad described as "devoid of grass", West Indies have picked three frontline spinners in their squad, which South Africa have read as a clear indication to expect slow, dry pitches.
That may negate the pace threat on both sides unless the weather offers some assistance. There are showers forecast for all five days of the Test, mostly in the later afternoon. Days one and five appear likely to be worst affected.
Stats and Trivia
Rabada needs nine wickets to get to 300 in Tests. If he takes all nine in this Test, he will equal Allan Donald as the second-fastest South African to the landmark, and will get there in 63 Tests.
The last time West Indies won a Test against South Africa at home was in 2001. Since then, South Africa have played nine matches in the West Indies, having won six and drawn three.
Between them, the two squads combined have 21,652 Test runs - the second-least runs in Tests between the two after the XIs that played each other for the very first time in 1992.
Quotes
"These Test matches are going to be quite traditional because conditions don't lend themselves to fast-scoring, and we don't have bouncy or seamy wickets. It's for us to stay in the fight and drag it out, and when those tough periods come, to be at our best." South Africa's Test coach Shukri Conrad expects a slog
Firdose Moonda is ESPNcricinfo's correspondent for South Africa and women's cricket
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