Is there a danger that a competitive Test series might break out in London over the coming fortnight? This is a city where Sri Lanka, remarkably, have not lost a single Test in six visits since August 1991. Admittedly, five of those have been draws at Lord's, although next week's return to The Oval for the first time since Murali's match in 1998 will be a reminder that one of the more disparaged of touring teams have long had the ability to confound expectations on their infrequent England visits.
Which is, to a greater or lesser extent, what Sri Lanka managed to do over the course of four improbably competitive days at Emirates Old Trafford. England eventually landed their fourth Test win out of four this summer, but not before they'd been made to struggle for the upper hand with ball and, latterly, bat, as Joe Root dropped anchor in a distinctly unBazballian 62 not out from 128 balls to oversee a taxing 205-run chase.
The subplots along the way were many and varied. What might have happened on the first evening, for instance, if England hadn't bowed to the umpires' assertion that it was too dark to bowl their quicks, and simply gone off for bad light instead of offering Milan Rathnayake 12 overs of spin in which to move towards the highest score by a No.9 on Test debut?
Conversely, what might have happened had England not managed to wrangle a ball-change after 41 overs of Sri Lanka's second innings, by which stage Angelo Mathews was channelling his 2014 glory days while Kamindu Mendis was on course for his third Test hundred in the space of four calmly authoritative Test appearances?
As had been the case in the Oval Ashes Test 12 months earlier, England had made their bed and deserved to have to sleep in it with their treatment of their original ball. They had sacrificed new-ball swing in the quest for a scuffed-up surface and some of the prodigious reverse that Asitha Fernando in particular had harvested. And even if their replacement ball was the same age as the original, it was like comparing a 41-year-old Hollywood actress with a vagrant who's lived his adult life in a ditch. Dhananjaya de Silva, Sri Lanka's captain, confirmed he had spoken to the match referee about the ball-change after the Test, and with such issues an increasingly frequent aspect of the English Test summer, this is clearly a loophole that deserves to be tightened up for future engagements.
All things being equal, however, it was hard to argue that Sri Lanka were robbed in the course of the first Test. Few sides that struggle to 6 for 3 in the first innings, then 1 for 2 in the second, can expect to get away unpunished, although seeing as one of the reasons for those scorelines was a notably fallow display from the otherwise sturdy Dimuth Karunaratne, who averages a tick below 41 in his 92 Tests, and who made 87 runs for once out on his last trip to Lord's in 2016, there is reason to believe that history won't repeat itself this week.
For starters, the team as a whole are now better acquainted with English conditions. Their preparation prior to the Old Trafford Test had been a low-key warm-up against England Lions in Worcester, which unsurprisingly proved insufficient to get them fully up to speed. And, after an intermittently damp experience in Manchester, the weather for London over the coming few days should be distinctly sunnier. There is no proven correlation between warm weather and heightened Sri Lankan performances, but anecdotal evidence from the past 40 years would tend to back up the suspicion that they tend to like it hot.
Either way, Sri Lanka have been granted the window in the calendar that they have been crying out for since their first forays to England in the 1980s. Here we are, in the thick of a full Test series at the sharp end of the English summer, as opposed to a one-off afterthought, as was the case from 1984 to 1998, or an early-season trial by seam and swing, as per 2002 onwards. The onus is on the class of 2024 to live up to the billing they've been afforded. And in spite of most expectations, that's more or less what they managed in the first match of three.
Form guide
England WWWWL (last five Tests, most recent first) Sri Lanka LWWWL
In the spotlight: Ollie Pope and Asitha Fernando
Ollie Pope has made a winning start to his Test captaincy career, which is not to be sniffed at - many great leaders, including his England predecessor, didn't manage that feat. But when it comes to his day job as England's No.3, Pope's main challenge is compartmentalisation, and two glaringly sub-par performances reinforced the sense that his game isn't quite where he wants or needs it to be. In the first innings he was bowled neck-and-crop by an admittedly excellent ball from Asitha; but in the second, his tendency towards skittishness in the early stages of an innings resulted in an ill-conceived reverse-sweep to slip - the very same shot that underpinned his GOAT-contender innings at Hyderabad in the winter. On the face of it, he's still in credit this summer, with 251 runs at 41.83 after four Tests. However, there's been something intangibly unsettled about his batting post-Hyderabad. Whether it's a mindset or technical issue, only he can truly say, but he won't get a chance to focus fully on a remedy in his current stand-in role.
Asitha Fernando was phenomenally good at Old Trafford. He led the line for Sri Lanka in each innings, easing past 50 Test wickets in the space of 15 Tests as he mixed conventional seam and swing with prodigious amounts of reverse - which in itself was quite the feat given how lush the outfield had been all match long. His challenge now is to back that performance up at Lord's (and The Oval) in the coming days. England will no doubt be better prepared for his unassuming threat, having had a good sighting of his probing methods, but Aaqib Javed, Sri Lanka's bowling coach, likened his effortless each-way movement to that of Pakistan's Mohammad Asif, and for Test cricket's connoisseurs, there really is no higher praise. Just ask Kevin Pietersen. If he can keep England guessing with new ball and old, so much the better for Sri Lanka's hopes of keeping the series alive.
Team news: Stone in for Wood, SL consider Kumara
As ever, England were proactive in their team announcement, confirming on Tuesday that they would be making one enforced change to their XI from Old Trafford. Mark Wood is out of the series with a thigh strain, so Nottinghamshire's Olly Stone slots back in as the like-for-like option, ahead of the uncapped 20-year-old left-armer, Josh Hull, who will be using this week to soak up the international atmosphere. Stone hasn't played a Test since 2021, having since had two screws inserted in his back, but he's been fit and firing across formats all summer long, and has tended to look the part in his limited England appearances to date. In three Tests since 2019, he's picked up ten wickets at 19.40.
England: 1 Dan Lawrence, 2 Ben Duckett, 3 Ollie Pope (capt), 4 Joe Root, 5 Harry Brook, 6 Jamie Smith (wk), 7 Chris Woakes, 8 Gus Atkinson, 9 Matthew Potts, 10 Olly Stone, 11 Shoaib Bashir
Sri Lanka have also confirmed their playing XI ahead of the game. They put up a good fight in the end, with Kamindu and Asitha their stand-out performers, but their main issue came right at right at the top of the order. Nishan Madushka has retained his role as opener but could muster only four runs across both innings in the first Test. Pathum Nissanka will slot in at No. 3 as Kusal Mendis lost his place despite deputising well in England's second innings. Dinesh Chandimal has recovered from a gruesome blow to the thumb at Old Trafford to retain his spot. On the bowling front, Lahiru Kumara has been recalled to provide some extra muscle, at the expense of the left-armer, Vishwa Fernando.
The weather is set fair, and Lord's in the sunshine can be tough place for a bowler. There have been some formidable snore-draws in the County Championship this summer, with Middlesex passing 600 twice and 550 once and Glamorgan's Sam Northeast surpassing Graham Gooch's 333 as the highest individual scorer at the venue. That said, West Indies didn't detain England's bowlers for long in their visit in July, thanks to Gus Atkinson's 12 wickets on debut. Pope noted that the pitch had a grassy tinge to it on the eve of the match, but expected to play pretty slow while the sun was out.
Stats and trivia
This will be Sri Lanka's ninth Test at Lord's since 1984, which will draw the ground level with Harare as their most frequent overseas venue. They have played at least that many Tests in six home venues, with the SSC in Colombo top of the pile on 45.
Sri Lanka have never won a Test at Lord's but they very rarely lose at the venue either. They famously drew on their initial visit in 1984, while the most recent of their two defeats came in 1991, at the hands of Graham Gooch, Phil DeFreitas and Phil Tufnell.
Despite his second-innings century at Old Trafford, Kamindu's average has slipped from its previous heights though not by much. His mark at the start of the series was 107.00 from three Tests; it is now 92.16 from four, with three hundreds and two further fifties in his seven innings to date.
Dimuth Karunaratne needs 72 more runs to reach 7000 in Tests.
Quotes
"It's good we're getting pushed. Sri Lanka were impressive last week, especially the way they batted. When you come to England, you expect different conditions and the conditions weren't your classic English-style pitches but at the same time, for the guys to go and put together some good scores and set us a chase from a hundred deficit is a credit to them." Ollie Pope expects England to come out on top but respects the challenge that Sri Lanka have posed
"Overall, Pathum is the best batter in the country at the moment. He has a good mindset and he has a good technique. If we can get him into the team, that's great. I have been talking about it for a while now. I think he will adjust to any format." Dhananjaya de Silva is all confident about Pathum Nissanka's skills
Andrew Miller is UK editor of ESPNcricinfo. @miller_cricket
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