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Trade Zion? Keep him? Cut him? New Orleans' options ahead of the deadline

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Published in Basketball
Tuesday, 31 December 2024 11:51

With a driving floater over Los Angeles Lakers big man Anthony Davis, Zion Williamson tied the score with just over three minutes remaining in the New Orleans Pelicans' first-round play-in game and sent the fans at the Smoothie King Center into a frenzy.

Williamson's fourth basket in four minutes marked a team-high 40 points, giving fans what they hoped to see since the Pelicans drafted him No. 1 overall in 2019. But Williamson landed awkwardly and limped off the floor with a towel over his head during the next timeout. He didn't play the rest of the game and ultimately the remainder of the postseason, the familiar pain in his left hamstring prematurely ending another Pelicans season. Williamson could only watch as the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder swept New Orleans in the first round.

Williamson played in a career-high 70 games last season, but it was the second playoff trip he missed due to injury. Six seasons into his career, he has yet to play in a playoff game.

"He's dominant when he plays," a rival general manager told ESPN. "But when's the last time you've seen him play?"

The answer: Nov. 6, when Williamson scored 29 points in 29 minutes in a loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers. He missed the previous two games because of left hamstring tightness and has been sidelined since due to a strain in that muscle.

At this point, Williamson's career has been defined more by his durability issues -- and conditioning concerns -- than his sensational drives and dunks. He has played only 190 games (plus the one abbreviated play-in outing) in 5 seasons since arriving in New Orleans with hope and hype of being a franchise savior.

Williamson's extensive injury history is why he agreed to one of the rarest contracts in NBA history: a maximum deal that requires him to earn guaranteed money as he goes, which could factor into Williamson's trade value if New Orleans explores the market for him. His $36.2 million salary for this season becomes fully guaranteed Jan. 7.

As a result, Williamson and the Pelicans could be approaching a crossroads.

Should the Pelicans continue to build around an incredible talent who has proven thus far to be a poor foundation for a franchise? Are there better alternatives?

Right now, the 5-28 Pelicans, whose playoff hopes have been destroyed by a series of injuries to the rotation, are focused on moving one of Williamson's teammates ahead of the Feb. 6 trade deadline. Finding a trade for injured forward Brandon Ingram, a one-time All-Star in a contract year whose extension talks have repeatedly fizzled, is the priority for the Pelicans' front office, sources told ESPN.

Williamson changed representation after suffering the latest injury, hiring WME's Bill Duffy, a longtime agent who also represents stars such as Luka Doncic, Anthony Edwards and Chet Holmgren. Sources told ESPN that Duffy has no intention to push for the Pelicans to trade Williamson before the deadline.

The team announced Dec. 24 that Williamson will be "week-to-week going forward" after his expected return to practice in the final days of December. The focus -- for all parties involved -- is to get Williamson back on the floor without further injury interruption.

"Let's ramp him up and create value for him," a source said, "whether that's with the Pelicans or another team."

A CONTRACT UNLIKE ANY OTHER

The Pelicans wrote multiple escape clauses into the five-year, $197 million extension Williamson signed after missing the 2021-22 season.

New Orleans paid Williamson as a franchise player but included language that protected the franchise if Williamson missed more than 22 games in the 2022-23 or 2023-24 season. He missed 53 in 2022-23, meaning Williamson's salaries in the remaining three seasons ($38.9 million in 2025-26, $41.5 million in 2026-27 and $44.2 million in 2027-28) are non-guaranteed.

"It is one the best contracts in the NBA," an Eastern Conference executive told ESPN. "But looking back, it is hard to argue that any team would have guaranteed Zion $197 million without conditions in the extension."

There are mechanisms for the non-guaranteed seasons to become fully or partially protected if Williamson satisfies weigh-in criteria set by New Orleans -- there are seven such dates during the season, with Williamson needing a combined weight and body fat percentage below 295 -- and plays in a certain number of games in the previous season. He would have to meet these criteria in the prior season for his contract to become partially or fully protected in the next season:

  • 20% if Williamson satisfies the weigh-in criteria

  • 40% if he plays in 41 games

  • 20% if he plays in 51 games

  • 20% if he plays in 61 games

For example, if Williamson played in 61 games this season and meets the weigh-in criteria, his $38.9 million salary in 2025-26 would be guaranteed. The remaining two seasons, however, would remain non-guaranteed. Sources told ESPN that Williamson is on track to reach the weight benchmarks, however, he has already missed 26 games this season, making it impossible for him to hit the 61-game mark. Once the weight clause criteria is met, the guaranteed portion for next season increases from $0 to $7.8 million. The non-guaranteed portion of his salary becomes guaranteed if Williamson is on the roster after 5 p.m. ET on July 15.

But missing the benchmarks doesn't reduce Williamson's salary -- just the amount that is guaranteed. To receive any financial benefit, New Orleans would have to take the unprecedented step of waiving Williamson. However, the Pelicans do not consider releasing Williamson to create financial flexibility to be a feasible option, according to sources with knowledge of the franchise's thinking. The small-market Pelicans know they never have been considered an attractive destination for free agents, so they don't believe slicing payroll by releasing Williamson would be a realistic path to improving the roster.

In the unlikely scenario that New Orleans waives Williamson before July 15, when $38.9 million of his salary for 2025-26 becomes guaranteed, the Pelicans could have up to $30 million in cap space -- but would have to replace both Williamson and Ingram, who account for a combined 45 points per game when healthy.

Still, even without releasing Williamson, the unique structure of his contract could be a valuable tool for the Pelicans.

play
0:48
Perk: The Warriors should trade for Zion Williamson

Kendrick Perkins explains why he would like to see Zion Williamson traded to the Warriors.

COULD A TRADE BE THE SOLUTION?

If the Pelicans and Williamson eventually part ways, it probably would be much different from the previous two times New Orleans traded its face of the franchise.

Chris Paul and Anthony Davis succeeded in forcing their way out of town despite the franchise's desire to keep the future Hall of Famers. This time, it could be the Pelicans who reach the conclusion that it's in the franchise's best interests to move on from Williamson.

One East executive, however, called gauging Williamson's trade value "the hardest question to answer in the NBA right now."

"It's really hard to see anybody paying a ton for him right now, but there are a very limited number of players in the league when healthy who are at or near the franchise-player tier," the East executive said. "The only way you win at the highest level is to have a guy who can do the type of things he can do if he's healthy.

"I would probably do something stupid to get him if it were me making decisions."

One executive suggested that the Pelicans could benefit by trading Williamson as a contract, not a talent. Such a deal would require finding a trade partner, likely a team that has crossed into the harsh second apron of the salary cap, that is desperate for financial relief.

In this scenario, the Pelicans could flip Williamson's cuttable contract into a quality player (or two). Perhaps the Pelicans could even squeeze some draft capital out of the deal.

"That makes sense," one general manager said when asked about the possibility. "But who are they going to get? Khris Middleton?"

There could also be a middle ground for a trade suitor. Willamson's contract would allow a team to acquire a superstar on a trial basis.

Several executives polled agreed that Williamson's talent -- as rarely as it has been on display -- would still generate some interest in the trade market. As one general manager said, "We've seen worse players have value despite injuries."

Added another: "It's a risk, but some team might take the risk."

ESPN talked to two team executives at the recent G-League showcase in Orlando and both pointed to Golden State as a logical fit for Williamson.

The Warriors have $40 million in expiring contracts, up to three first-round picks to trade, young players in Jonathan Kuminga, Brandin Podziemski and the $26.2 million salary of Andrew Wiggins.

As ESPN's Shams Charania reported in December, the Warriors are exploring the market for an All-Star to pair next to Stephen Curry.

After winning the title in 2022, the Warriors failed to reach the playoffs in 2023.

They are currently fighting for a play-in spot and have just four wins this month.

A GM brainstorming potential Williamson deals mentioned the Chicago Bulls, who have been shopping guard Zach LaVine for several months, as a possible fit. LaVine, 29, has his own durability issues and a contract due to pay him $95 million over the next two seasons. But he has reminded the league of his talent level by averaging 22.0 points per game with a 63.4% true shooting percentage this season.

"I bet Chicago would do that," the general manager said of a hypothetical deal built around swapping Williamson for LaVine.

After pondering it for a few seconds, the GM said he'd decline such an offer if he were running the Pelicans.

An executive for another team speculated that the market for Williamson at this point would be a late first-round pick and salary filler for a good team willing to gamble that he could vault it into contender status.

"Take a swing and work on his body," the executive said. "It would be complicated with his salary, but I think it would be doable."

Other league sources believed that if the Pelicans moved Williamson, their best bet would be reaching out to rebuilding teams.

"Maybe there's a bad team that needs a star," another West executive said. "I don't think he's getting a premium picks package, but the guy has proven that when he's healthy, he's a star."

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