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How to reach the Champions League knockouts

Written by 
Published in Soccer
Wednesday, 22 January 2025 15:43

It's been a journey into the unknown, but the new-look 36-team Champions League is finally reaching the climax of the league phase.

While we're starting to get some kind of idea of who's going to go through, a lot can happen in the final round. We only know two of the eight clubs that will go straight through to the round of 16, and 18 of the 24 teams who will be in the knockout rounds.

That said, nine teams have already been eliminated with only three more to come -- so jeopardy is limited.

Unlike in previous seasons, no teams will drop into the Europa League from the Champions League.

Unexpectedly, Man City are in real danger of being eliminated, which might not have been the case under the old format.

Let's take a look at what's at stake and how the final matchday is shaping up.

How does it work?

The teams in position 1-8 go straight to the round of 16, and won't have to play games in February.

The clubs in places 9-24 will face the playoff round next month.

Those in 25th to 36th are eliminated.

Does it matter where you finish in the table?

Yes, because the league placings create the knockout bracket. Unlike in previous seasons, where there would be open draws, paths will be set after this phase has been completed.

The new "seeding" system means the highest-placed teams can't face each other until the latter stages of the knockout round.

For instance, if we look at the table right now, Liverpool and Barcelona are in first and second and they would not be able to play each other until the final. The teams in third and fourth -- currently Arsenal and Inter Milan -- can't play Liverpool or Barcelona until the semifinals.

However, the value of being placed high in the table has been complicated by poor European seasons for Manchester City, Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid, who have unexpectedly become possible opponents earlier in the knockout rounds.

The teams in first and second will play 15th, 16th, 17th or 18th in the round of 16. A host of top clubs could yet finish in one of those positions, including Real Madrid (16th) and Juventus (17th).

Finishing seventh or eighth is to be avoided, and that creates a direct collision course with first and second in the quarterfinals.

What are the league phase tiebreakers?

1 - Goal difference
2 - Goals scored
3 - Away goals scored
4 - Wins
5 - Away wins
6 - Higher number of total points collected by league phase opponents*
7 - Higher goal difference attained of league phase opponents*
8 - Higher goals scored by league phase opponents*
9 - Disciplinary points
10 - UEFA club coefficient.

*You add up the record of the eight teams faced in the league phase, effectively creating a difficulty level of opponents.

Who is already through to the knockout rounds?

Round of 16:
Liverpool are through and are guaranteed to finish first or second, and thus take a top seeding position in the bracket.
Barcelona have also secured a top-eight finish with a dramatic winner in a 5-4 comeback victory at Benfica.

Guaranteed at least a place in the knockout playoff round:
Atlético Madrid, Atalanta, Arsenal, Bayer Leverkusen, Internazionale, AC Milan, Feyenoord, Aston Villa, Brest, AS Monaco, Lille, Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Juventus, Celtic

How it looks: the battle to go through

Before the competition began it was thought that 16 points would secure a place in the top eight, but the low spread of points at the bottom of the table means it could take 17 points to be absolutely certain of going through. It now looks possible to finish outside the top eight on goal difference with 16 points.

1. Liverpool (21 points, goal difference +13)
PSV Eindhoven (a)

The Reds are through and certain to finish in the top 2.


2. Barcelona (18, +15)
Atalanta (h)

A direct place in the round of 16 is booked and they can finish no lower than sixth, though goal difference realistically means they will be top four.


3. Arsenal (16, +12)
Girona (a)

4. Internazionale (16, +7)
AS Monaco (h)

Arsenal and Inter could both still miss out on goal difference if they lose, but Arsenal are in a very strong position on +12. The Gunners would need to suffer a big defeat to Girona, or three of Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, Inter, AS Monaco, Feyenoord, Brest or Lille would need huge wins to overtake them on 16 points.

Inter are slightly less safe with goal difference of +7, and if they were to lose by two goals at home to Monaco wins for Arsenal, Leverkusen and Villa could possibly put them into the playoffs. But they look good.


5. Atlético Madrid (15, +5)
RB Salzburg (a)

6. AC Milan (15, +4)
Dinamo Zagreb (a)

A win for Atlético and Milan would send both clubs through to the round of 16.

A draw could be enough, but it would place them right on the edge of qualification and into a goal difference battle on 16 points. Big wins for teams who are now on 13 points would put them in the playoffs.

A loss is very unlikely to keep them top eight.


7. Atalanta (14, +14)
Barcelona (a)

The Serie A side's 5-0 victory over Sturm Graz has put them right in contention for the top eight.

A draw could be enough ... but Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, AS Monaco, Feyenoord, Lille and Brest would need to fail to win.

Realistically, Atalanta must win at Camp Nou to go through directly.


8. Bayer Leverkusen (13, +6)
Sparta Prague (h)

9. Aston Villa (13, +5)
Celtic (h)

10. AS Monaco (13, +3)
Internazionale (a)

11. Feyenoord Rotterdam (13, +2)
Lille (a)

12. Lille (13, +2)
Feyenoord Rotterdam (h)

13. Brest (13, +2)
Real Madrid (h)

It's a real hit and hope for all six sides on 13 points.

What do their chances look like? Arsenal have far superior goal difference, while Inter, Atlético and AC Milan have favourable fixtures.

Does that mean there could be only one or two places open in the top eight if Atalanta stumble at Camp Nou? They must hope for shock results.

Leverkusen sit eighth, while Villa are best placed to squeeze into it with their goal difference and decent home fixtures.

Lille and Feyenoord play each other, but both only have goal difference of +2.

Brest would probably need a big win at home to Real Madrid to pull it off.


14. Borussia Dortmund (12, +8)
Shakhtar Donetsk (h)

15. Bayern Munich (12, +6)
Slovan Bratislava (h)

16. Real Madrid (12, +5)
Brest (a)

17. Juventus (12, +4)
Benfica (h)

18. Celtic (12,+1)
Aston Villa (a)

All five sides are assured of the knockout playoff round, and while mathematically they have a chance of making the top eight on goal difference, it would take a crazy set of results to do so.

Atlético Madrid and AC Milan must lose, and five of the seven teams from 7th to 13th fail to win.


19. PSV Eindhoven (11, +3)
Liverpool (h)

20. Club Brugge (11, -2)
Manchester City (a)

These are only two teams who are locked in the knockout playoff round.


21. Benfica (10, +2)
Juventus (a)

22. Paris Saint-Germain (10, +2)
VfB Stuttgart (a)

23. Sporting CP (10, +1)
Bologna (h)

24. VfB Stuttgart (10, -1)
Paris Saint-Germain (h)

All four teams know that victory secures a place in the knockout playoff round. Club Brugge would be overtaken by Man City if they lose at the Etihad, and the Belgian club would then have to hope they are not overtaken by the clubs on 10 points. That would require Stuttgart vs. PSG being a draw and wins for both Benfica and Sporting.

Paris Saint-Germain effectively only need a draw vs. Stuttgart as Zagreb's goal difference is so inferior.


25. Manchester City (8, +2)
Club Brugge (h)

26. Dinamo Zagreb (8, -8)
AC Milan (h)

Man City sit outside the top 24 but they are guaranteed to go through on goal difference with a win at home to Club Brugge. The only question is whether that would be at the expense of the Belgian club, or one of the teams on 10 points.

Dinamo Zagreb must win at home to AC Milan and hope at least one of Benfica, PSG/Stuttgart or Sporting lose. Make that two if Man City win.


27. Shakhtar Donetsk (7, -6)
Borussia Dortmund (a)

Shakhtar Donetsk have very slim hope. They would have to win first of all. Manchester City and Dinamo Zagreb must fail to win. And one of the teams on 10 points must lose with a big goal difference swing.


28. Bologna (5, -5)
Sporting CP (a)

29. Sparta Prague (4, -12)
Bayer Leverkusen (a)

30. RB Leipzig (3, -6)
SK Sturm Graz (a)

31. Girona (3, -7)
Arsenal (h)

32. Red Star Belgrade (3, -10)
Young Boys (a)

33. SK Sturm Graz (3, -10)
RB Leipzig (h)

34. RB Salzburg (3, -19)
Real Madrid (a), Atlético Madrid (h)

35. Slovan Bratislava (0, -18)
Bayern Munich (a)

36. Young Boys (0, -20)
Red Star Belgrade (h)

The bottom nine have been eliminated.


How does the final round of games work?

All 18 matches are played at the same time in a bumper round where every goal will change the table.

The games take place at 3 p.m. ET, 8 p.m. UK on Wednesday, Jan. 29.

When is the draw for the knockout rounds?

The draw for the knockout playoff round -- featuring the clubs that finish ninth to 24th -- will take place on Friday, Jan. 31 at 6 a.m. ET / 11 a.m. UK.

How does the knockout draw work?

In the knockout playoff round draw, teams are paired by their final position

Before the draw, teams will have two possible opponents.

For instance, 21st (Benfica) and 22nd (PSG) will be paired to play either 11th (Feyenoord) or 12th (Lille).

The two pairs of fixtures will then be drawn into opposite halves of the bracket.

The teams placed 9th to 16th are seeded and will be at home in the second leg.

First legs: Feb. 11-12, 2025
Second legs: Feb. 18-19, 2025

After the knockout playoff round draw, the teams who finish inside the top eight will still have four possible opponents.

For instance, fifth (Inter) and sixth (AC Milan) would still be able to play any of 11th, 12th, 21st and 22nd.

Once the knockout playoff round is complete, the teams in fifth and sixth would have two possible opponents remaining, the winners of those ties.

The round of 16 draw then takes place on Friday, Feb. 21, when fifth and sixth would be drawn into opposite halves of the bracket -- which would create a fixture against a winner of a knockout playoff round tie.

The teams placed 1st to 8th are seeded and will be at home in the second leg.

First legs: March 4-5, 2025
Second legs: March 11-12, 2025

The knockout bracket is now set. There is one more draw, straight after the round of 16 draw, to determine the home teams in the second leg for the quarterfinals and semifinals.

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