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Luka deal improves Lakers' title odds dramatically

Written by 
Published in Basketball
Sunday, 02 February 2025 08:40

The stunning trade that sent Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers and Anthony Davis to the Dallas Mavericks late Saturday night had swift, drastic implications on the sports betting markets.

Before news of the deal breaking, the Lakers were +4000 to win the 2025 NBA Finals and +2500 to win the Western Conference, according to ESPN BET odds. Immediately following the news, Los Angeles' odds shortened to +1800 to win the NBA title and sat at +1600 as of Sunday morning, the sixth-best odds in the league. The Lakers' conference title odds jumped to +900 before settling at +850.

ESPN BET reports that since midnight ET, the Lakers have received 46.6% of all bets and 65.2% of all handle to win this season's title. BetMGM places those numbers at 64% and 57%, respectively, and clarifies that there have been no "notable" big bets since the trade news broke. The book notes that Los Angeles is its largest liability for the Western Conference title.

The Lakers' season win total also bumped up from 45.5 to 48.5 at ESPN BET; they currently sit at fifth place in the Western Conference with 28 wins.

Jeff Sherman, a longtime NBA oddsmaker at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, said on X that the "Lakers must have seen their recent stretch without AD and said fine, we'll take Luka."

Meanwhile, the Mavericks saw their odds to win the NBA Finals lengthen from +2500 to +4000 immediately following the trade, though they came back to +3300 by Sunday morning at ESPN BET. Dallas' Western Conference odds stretched from +900 to +1500, then ultimately to +1600. The Mavs took 9.5% of all tickets and 11.1% of all money to win the championship since Sunday night at the sportsbook.

ESPN BET reports that, as of 11 a.m. ET on Sunday, the book has already taken the second-highest number of total bets in the NBA Champion market for any single day since the season started.

The sportsbook also released odds for Feb. 25's showdown between the Mavs and Lakers in Los Angeles, with the home team opening as 5.5-point favorites before quickly coming down to -4.5.

ESPN's David Purdum contributed to this report.

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