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Ranking the top 50 players in the Stanley Cup playoffs: Where do Hellebuyck, MacKinnon, Kucherov land?

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Published in Hockey
Monday, 21 April 2025 07:16

As the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs began, a number of storylines dominated the conversation: Can Connor Hellebuyck turn his historic regular season into a Dominik Hašek-esque postseason run for the ages for the Winnipeg Jets? Will the Colorado Avalanche-Dallas Stars showdown be a quasi-Cup Final right away in Round 1? Is it finally the year for Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to win it all, after the Edmonton Oilers came so close last season?

But beyond the matchups and narratives, it's also a good time to take stock of which players bring the most value into the postseason.

That's where goals above replacement (GAR) comes in -- my evolved spin on earlier all-in-one value stats like Tom Awad's goals versus threshold and Hockey-Reference's point shares. The core idea of GAR is to measure a player's total impact -- in offense, defense or goaltending -- above what a generic "replacement-level" player might provide at the same position. It also strives to ensure the league's value is better balanced by position: 60% of leaguewide GAR is distributed to forwards, 30% to defensemen and 10% to goaltenders.

To then assess who might be most valuable on the eve of this year's playoffs, I plugged GAR into a system inspired by Bill James' concept of an "established level" of performance; in this case, a weighted average of each player's GAR over the past three regular seasons, with more emphasis on 2024-25. And to keep the metric from undervaluing recent risers, we also apply a safeguard: no player's established level can be lower than 75% of his most recent season's GAR.

The result is a blend of peak, recent, and sustained performance -- the players on playoff-bound teams who have been great, are currently great or are still trending upward -- in a format that gives us a sense of who could define this year's postseason.

One final note: Injured players who were expected to miss all or substantial parts of the playoffs were excluded from the ranking. Sorry, Jack Hughes.

With that in mind, here are the top 50 skaters and goaltenders on teams in the 2025 playoff field, according to their three-year established level of value, ranked by the numbers:

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