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Champions League: What Liverpool, Chelsea must do to qualify

Written by 
Published in Soccer
Monday, 09 December 2019 10:34

The Champions League group stage is drawing to a close, but who is best placed to make it through to the knockout rounds?

We look at each group, with the top two going through and the third dropping into the Europa League.

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WHO HAS QUALIFIED: Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Juventus, Manchester City, Paris Saint-Germain, Real Madrid, RB Leipzig, Tottenham Hotspur

GROUP A

Dec. 11: Brugge vs. Real Madrid, PSG vs. Galatasaray

Permutations

Paris Saint-Germain will finish top of the group with Real Madrid through in second.

Club Brugge: Will take the Europa League place if they win at home to Madrid OR Galatasaray do not beat PSG.

Galatasaray: To qualify for the Europa League they must win at PSG AND Brugge fail to beat Madrid.


GROUP B

Dec. 11: Bayern Munich vs. Tottenham, Olympiakos vs. Red Star Belgrade

Permutations

Bayern Munich have won the group with Tottenham Hotspur through in second.

Red Star Belgrade: Must avoid defeat at Olympiakos to qualify for the Europa League.

Olympiakos: Will be in the Europa League if they win at home to Red Star.


GROUP C

Dec. 11: Dinamo Zagreb vs. Manchester City, Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Atalanta

Shakhtar Donetsk, Dinamo Zagreb and Atalanta have all offered moments to remember in Group C, but none of them have come close to challenging Manchester City for top spot. One will go through with them in second, though, and it will be Champions League old-timers Shakhtar who progress if they defeat Atalanta at home on Wednesday night.

Given that Dinamo, who sit between the those two in third, face City the smart money is on whoever wins that tie in Ukraine will end the night in celebration. Dinamo will feel this is a fine time to play Pep Guardiola's stuttering side, though, particularly at their own notoriously intimidating Maksimir Stadium. If they do that and Shakhtar fail to win, they will pip them into second place. Atalanta will progress if they win and Dinamo fail to -- meaning this is, by all measures, the tightest qualification race in this year's group stage.

Permutations

Manchester City have qualified as group winners, but second place is wide-open.

Shakhtar Donetsk: Will definitely be through if they win at home to Atalanta. A draw will also be enough unless Dinamo Zagreb beat Man City.

Dinamo Zagreb: Are the outsiders as they must win at home to Man City, who may rest players, together with Shakhtar failing to win.

Atalanta: A win at Shakhtar would see them through unless Dinamo beat Man City.


GROUP D

Dec. 11: Atletico Madrid vs. Lokomotiv Moscow, Bayer Leverkusen vs. Juventus

A modern-day Champions League success story still have work to do, although it would take two big shocks for twice runners-up Atletico Madrid not to join Juventus in qualifying from Group D. They only have to win at home against already-eliminated Lokomotiv Moscow to make sure of their knockout place and, even if they lost, Bayer Leverkusen would have to win at home against the serial Serie A champions in order to displace them. Diego Simeone's team surely can't be this year's big-name departure ... can they?

Permutations

Juventus are through as group winners.

Atletico Madrid: Will be through if they win at home to Lokomotiv Moscow OR Bayer Leverkusen fail to beat Juventus.

Bayer Leverkusen: Must win at home to Juve and hope Atleti do not win. Leverkusen are assured of Europa League football at least, with Lokomotiv Moscow guaranteed to finish bottom.


GROUP E

Dec. 10: Napoli vs. Genk, Salzburg vs. Liverpool

Could Liverpool, the European champions and runaway Premier League leaders, really be on the verge of a stunning early exit? It is not an entirely fanciful idea. Liverpool need at least a draw at FC Salzburg to guarantee their progress, and that is hardly an outcome to take for granted. The Austrian champions staged a thrilling comeback from 3-0 down when the sides met at Anfield in October, only for Mohamed Salah to spare the hosts' blushes, and are more than capable of taking the game to Liverpool on their home turf. In Erling Haaland and Patson Daka they have young strikers in sensational form, while the talents behind them -- such as Chan Hwang-hee and Dominik Szoboszlai -- have captured the imagination too.

Should Jesse Marsch, the former New York Red Bulls coach get the win and Napoli avoid defeat at home to group whipping boys Genk, the holders will almost certainly be out. Liverpool, who have not brought their Premier League form to Europe yet this term, need to step up sharply.

Permutations

Liverpool: Need at least a point away to Salzburg to guarantee their place. Liverpool would also be through with a defeat IF Napoli lose at home to Genk OR if Napoli win and Liverpool lose by a one-goal margin of 5-4 or higher-scoring

Napoli: A draw at home to Genk would seal their place, as would a defeat IF Salzburg do not beat Liverpool.

FC Salzburg: A win at home to Liverpool would send them into the knockout rounds UNLESS they win by a one-goal margin of 5-4 or higher-scoring and Napoli beat Genk (which would put Liverpool through on head to head goals scored).

*NB: If Salzburg beat Liverpool and Napoli draw with Genk, the three teams would be level on 10 points. The group would be decided on head to head record. Napoli would win the group, with Salzburg going through in second ahead of Liverpool on mini-league goal difference.

Genk: Have been eliminated.


GROUP F

Dec. 10: Borussia Dortmund vs. Slavia Prague, Inter Milan vs. Barcelona

One of Group F's big hitters was always going to bite the dust, and on Tuesday night either Inter Milan or Borussia Dortmund will be consigned to a Europa League campaign. It's Inter's to lose: they sit level on points with the Bundesliga side, but hold the head-to-head. Antonio Conte's side therefore only have to match Dortmund's outcome; the catch is that they must travel to Barcelona, while their rivals host Slavia Prague in what looks as sure a home banker as any.

Inter will probably need to win, then, and will be thankful that Barca are already home and dry as group winners, sitting four points clear of the rest. They will be mindful of the way they were edged out in a similar scenario last year, when Spurs earned a crucial point against an already-qualified Barca at the Camp Nou, knocking Inter out in the process. Will Barca be more charitable to the Italians this time around? And will Dortmund be ready to capitalise fully if they are not?

Permutations

Barcelona are through as group winners.

Inter Milan: Must match or better Borussia Dortmund's result to take second place. So they would be through if both sides lose or both sides win.

Borussia Dortmund: Must better Inter Milan's result to qualify. So if Dortmund beat Slavia Prague, they need Inter to draw or lose to Barca.

Slavia Prague: Have been eliminated.


GROUP G

Dec. 10: Benfica vs. Zenit, Lyon vs. RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig have already made it through to the latter stages for the first time -- leaving Zenit and Lyon slugging it out to join them. The Russian and French sides both sit on seven points, three behind Leipzig and three ahead of Benfica, who cannot qualify even if they beat Zenit because they have already been pipped on head-to-head by Lyon.

Zenit sit above Lyon on direct head-to-head but Sergei Semak's side would be eliminated if both they and the Ligue 1 team win, missing out on the three-team head to head. While Zenit host Benfica, Lyon play at home against an in-form Leipzig team that will want to be sure of topping the group -- but a win for Lyon guarantees they go through.

Permutations

RB Leipzig have qualified but need a point to secure top spot.

Zenit St Petersburg: Are guaranteed to go through if they win or draw at Benfica and Lyon do not win at home to Leipzig. They would also be through with a defeat if Lyon lose to Leipzig.

Lyon: Are guaranteed to go through with a win, or with a draw if Zenit lose to Benfica. If both Zenit and Lyon win, three teams would be level on 10 points. That would make the final standings: 1. Lyon, 2. RB Leipzig, 3. Zenit.

Benfica: Have been eliminated but would qualify for the Europa League with a win at home to Zenit IF Lyon lose at home to Leipzig OR if they beat Zenit 2-0 or by 3+ goals.


GROUP H

Dec. 10: Ajax vs. Valencia, Chelsea vs. Lille

Frank Lampard knows what he needs to do in order to oversee a knockout campaign for the first time. If Chelsea win at home to Lille, who have earned only a point from their five games to date, they will go through, and the only question after that will be whether they finish first or second.

Ajax host Valencia in Group H's other tie, and that is effectively a knockout -- with the Dutch champions, two points clear of second-placed Valencia and third-placed Chelsea, needing just a point to go through. But should Erik Ten Hag's side lose then the unthinkable would probably become reality: Ajax, everyone's darlings last season, would this time leave the Champions League proper at the very first hurdle.

Permutations

Ajax: Require a draw at home to Valencia to be sure of going through. Would also be through with a defeat IF Chelsea do not win at home to Lille.

Valencia: Must win at Ajax to guarantee qualification. A draw would also be enough IF Chelsea do not win at home to Lille.

Chelsea: Have to win at home to Lille to make sure a place in the knockout rounds is in their own hands. A draw would also be enough IF Valencia lose at Ajax.

Lille: Have been eliminated.

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