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Premier League sprint to the finish: What's left to play for

Written by 
Published in Soccer
Tuesday, 26 March 2019 09:25

The Premier League season is set for a frantic conclusion at both ends of the table, with the battle for the title and the top four set to go down to the wire.

With permutations updated after each game, we run through what is left to play for and ESPN FC senior writer Mark Ogden offers his thoughts and predictions.

Jump to: Title race | UCL qualification | Relegation

- Premier League table

- SPI odds for the Premier League season

RACE FOR THE TITLE

1. LIVERPOOL (94 points from 37 games)

Still to play: Wolves (h)

Liverpool were on the brink against Newcastle until they found a late, late winner. But they will still need a favour from Leicester or Brighton if they are to win the title. They also have the second leg of their Champions League semifinal against Barcelona while Man City rest.

In short: Liverpool must beat Wolves and hope Man City fail to win one of their games.

Ogden: Saturday's late win at Newcastle ensures that the title can still be won at home to Wolves on Sunday if Manchester City drop points against either Leicester or Brighton. A win will take Liverpool to 97 points, yet that still might not be enough.

2. MAN CITY (92 points from 36 games)

Still to play: Leicester (h), Brighton (a)

Victory at Man United meant the way was set clear for Man City to retain the title. They know that by winning their final two matches the trophy will remain at the Etihad. They are out of the Champions League, will those free midweeks prove key for their sharpness and results?

In short: City are guaranteed to win the title with two victories

Ogden: The long-awaited derby clash at United was successfully navigated, and that should leave a home run to the title.

2. LIVERPOOL (91 points from 36 games)

Still to play: Newcastle (a), Wolves (h)

Liverpool have set a new club record for Premier League points, but they will need a favour from Leicester or Brighton if they are to win the title. They also have to navigate a two-legged Champions League semifinal against Barcelona while Man City rest.

In short: Liverpool must win both their remaining games and hope Man City fail to win one of theirs.

Ogden: Jurgen Klopp's team have done all they can do, but their fate now lies in the hands of others. Even if Liverpool win their final two games, as they probably will, it may not be enough. The time has come for one of City's remaining opponents to deny them a win and, looking at City's remaining fixtures, it may be a forlorn hope.


RACE FOR THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

The top four in the Champions League will qualify direct to the group stage, with fifth and sixth into the Europa League.

3. TOTTENHAM (70 points from 37 games)

Still to play: Everton (h)

Defeat at Bournemouth means Spurs still need a win at home to Everton to secure Champions League football for definite, but results elsewhere over the weekend could yet seal it before the final weekend.

In short: Spurs must beat Everton to be mathematically certain of the top four, but if Man United fail to win or Arsenal lose it will be confirmed.

Ogden: Tottenham are well and truly stumbling over the finishing line for a top-four spot and they must now beat Everton at home to be certain of Champions League qualification. With Harry Kane still sidelined, the loss to suspension of Son Heung-Min following his red card in the defeat at Bournemouth could leave Spurs dangerously short of firepower against an the in-form Toffees.

4. CHELSEA (68 points from 36 games)

Still to play: Watford (h), Leicester (a)

Maurizio Sarri's men looked to be outsiders a few weeks ago, but now have their destiny in their own hands. The draw at Manchester United, combined with another defeat for Arsenal, made it a good weekend for the Blues. But you feel there might be some more twists yet. Along with Arsenal, they have the chance to reach the Champions League via winning the Europa League; Chelsea face Eintracht Frankfurt in the semifinals.

In short: Chelsea need two wins to be certain of finishing in the top four, but four will be enough unless Arsenal win both their remaining games.

Ogden: A big week for Chelsea began with a disappointing home draw against Burnley. The draw at Old Trafford might go a long way to sealing a top-four finish.

5. ARSENAL (66 points from 36 games)

Still to play: Brighton (h), Burnley (a)

Arsenal's away form has been their Achilles heel with only two wins on the road in five months, going back to Nov. 25. Any kind of decent recent away record and a place in the Champions League would already be theirs. Instead, the defeat at Leicester makes it incredibly difficult. Help is now required from Chelsea's remaining opponents, Watford and Leicester. They also have a tough Europa League semifinal -- the competition winners earn a UCL place -- against Valencia to navigate.

In short: Arsenal must pick up at least two more points than Chelsea. If they win both their games, and Chelsea draw one, Arsenal could finish fourth on goal difference but it would be very tight.

Ogden: Losing at home to Palace and also to Wolves and Leicester has put Arsenal's top-four chances in real jeopardy. Arsenal may regret a horrible week at a crucial point of the season.

6. MAN UNITED (65 points from 36 games)

Still to play: Huddersfield (a), Cardiff (h)

United have suffered a dramatic collapse in form just at the wrong time, but their rivals haven't fared much better. Failure to win at home to Chelsea has just about killed off their top-four hopes, three points behind Chelsea who have a far superior goal difference. Already-relegated Huddersfield and struggling Cardiff are left to play but wins in those games will surely too little, too late for the Champions League.

In short: United must win both their remaining games to have any realistic chance. Due to their inferior goal difference they would also need Chelsea to pick up no more than two points and Arsenal a maximum of four.

Ogden: A disastrous run of results has seen United slip down to sixth place and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's men are now needing others to drop points if they are to sneak a top-four finish. Nothing less than six points from their final two games will be enough, but the ship has probably already sailed.


RELEGATED

18. CARDIFF (31 points from 37 games)

Cardiff were relegated on May 4.

19. FULHAM (23 points from 35 games)

Fulham were relegated April 2.

20. HUDDERSFIELD (14 points from 36 games)

Huddersfield were relegated March 30.

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