Entering April, sportsbooks had Tua Tagovailoa as a big favorite to be the second quarterback taken in the NFL draft. Three weeks later, the odds have shifted dramatically.
Oregon's Justin Herbert has overtaken Tagovailoa and is now a small favorite at most sportsbooks to be the second quarterback selected, after LSU's Joe Burrow. DraftKings and MGM have Herbert at -125, ahead of Tagovailoa at -110, while PointsBet has them listed as co-favorites.
On March 31, PointsBet had Tagovailoa as a -650 favorite to be the second quarterback drafted, with Herbert a 5-1 underdog. By April 15, Herbert was a -125 favorite. Herbert and Tagovailoa are now co-favorites.
"The uncertainty that surrounds the draft has been on full display the last few weeks, supported by frequent price adjustments and shifts in bettor tendencies. Our 'second QB drafted' market is a prime example," Patrick Eichner, communications director for PointsBet, told ESPN. "Questions of Tagovailoa's durability and rumors of teams preferring Herbert have enticed bettors to favor the Oregon product of late."
Tagovailoa began last season as the favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick, but suffered a hip injury in November that ended his final year at Alabama and sent him into the draft with questions about his health. Tagovailoa underwent a voluntary medical recheck April 2 and received positive results.
Odds on which team will draft Tagovailoa have been among the most popular propositions with bettors at multiple sportsbooks. The Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers, who currently own the fifth and sixth picks, respectively, are considered the favorites to land Tagovailoa. Some bettors, however, have taken stabs on some intriguing long shots, including on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who last week went from 80-1 to 25-1 at PointsBet to land Tagovailoa.
Still, the Dolphins and Chargers were receiving the bulk of bets at sportsbooks. Miami had attracted the most bets at FanDuel, while the Chargers had received the most support at William Hill sportsbooks.
At Caesars Sportsbooks in New Jersey, nearly six times as much as money had been bet on the Chargers to land Tagovailoa as had been bet on any other team. The Dolphins are +120 and the Chargers are +160 to take Tagovailoa at Caesars.
"We took a dime [$1,000] on the Chargers at 9-2," Jeff Davis, director or trading for Caesars, said.
While the odds to be the second quarterback are tight, Burrow is an overwhelming favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick. FanDuel has Burrow listed at -100,000. At that price, bettors would need to risk $100,000 on Burrow to win $100.