Big Picture

London is a long way from Christchurch, and New Zealand will be meeting Bangladesh for the first time in more than two months. But the shadow of March 15 will still hang heavy, with Bangladesh's tour of New Zealand cut tragically short due to a heinous terror attack. There was grace and empathy shown by both sides that time, and both sets of players will doubtless have warm feelings towards each other, even if born out of tragedy. But this is a World Cup, and sentiment will be left at the boundary when the teams face off in what shapes up to be a crucial match.

That New Zealand have begun this World Cup strongly shouldn't surprise anyone. They fly under the radar at most times, but in spite of that, they've been a remarkably consistent team at World Cups, and a consistent presence in the later stages of the tournament.

That Bangladesh, too, are among the teams in the top half of the table at this early stage will have surprised several people, though it shouldn't. Since the 2015 event, Bangladesh have steadily grown as a one-day force, and they came into this tournament as one of the banana-peel teams. South Africa duly slipped up against them.

But Bangladesh will believe, with justification, that they aren't just here to upset teams, but are serious contenders. The scrum for the four semi-final spots is likely to be a close one, and the team that goes on a run of form will have the advantage over similar contenders. Bangladesh have taken a big step towards being near the front of that line. Another win against an established team and they will hold legitimate hopes.

Bangladesh's two weaker areas of late have been their opening pair and pace bowling. With Soumya Sarkar's recent run of form, they've got one of them covered, while Mustafizur Rahman finding his rhythm again and Mohammad Saifuddin's progress have ensured the second one isn't crippling.

New Zealand will be quietly confident, though, with a win against India in the warm-ups followed by a demolition job against Sri Lanka. Their pace bowling, in particular, looked in fine fettle. Trent Boult, Lockie Ferguson and Matt Henry looked a fearsome prospect in helpful conditions. If they get that help again, they could have the Bangladesh batsmen hopping.

Traditionally, subcontinental teams have had their share of problems against accurate and hostile short-pitched bowling, so unless the pitch is flat, that could be part of New Zealand's plans. Their batting is helmed by a powerful top order, with Ross Taylor and Kane Williamson the reassuring figures relied upon to steer the innings.

Form guide

Bangladesh WWWWW (last five completed matches, most recent first)
New Zealand WWWWL

In the spotlight

Soumya Sarkar hasn't always done justice to his enormous talent. He averages 36.80 in ODIs, but scores at better than a run a ball. The speed of scoring speaks of his ability to find the boundaries and the gaps, but the average says he hasn't always made fast starts count. Since the start of 2018, though, despite a spell out of the team, Soumya has added consistency too. He averages 41.69 and rattles along at a strike-rate of 109.05 - both considerably above his career numbers. He has been a changed batsman since hitting his maiden Test century during the tour of New Zealand at the start of the year. His last four ODIs have brought scores of 73, 54, 66 and 42. Another good score at fast pace, and he will have set the platform for Bangladesh's pedigreed middle order to take charge.

Since the 2015 World Cup, Ross Taylor's ODI average of 68.85 is second only to Virat Kohli's. He has quietly, efficiently and methodically piled on the runs. He made 71 against India in the warm-ups, and by almost any reckoning has been among the top few batsmen in ODIs in the last four years. That he's still not spoken of in the elite category of batsmen says more about perception than his performance. But New Zealand know just how reliable Taylor is. And opposition teams know it too.

Team news

Bangladesh will likely stick with the XI that delivered victory against South Africa. Tamim Iqbal, Mustafizur and Saifuddin all have niggles, though nothing serious enough to prevent them from playing.

Bangladesh (probable): 1 Tamim Iqbal, 2 Soumya Sarkar, 3 Shakib Al Hasan, 4 Mushfiqur Rahim (wk), 5 Mohammad Mithun, 6 Mahmudullah, 7 Mosaddek Hossain, 8 Mehidy Hasan Miraz, 9 Mohammad Saifuddin, 10 Mashrafe Mortaza (capt), 11 Mustafizur Rahman

New Zealand are also likely to stay unchanged. Tim Southee and Henry Nicholls are not yet at 100% fitness, which makes the decision easier.

New Zealand (probable): 1 Martin Guptill, 2 Colin Munro, 3 Kane Williamson (capt), 4 Ross Taylor, 5 Tom Latham (wk), 6 James Neesham, 7 Colin de Grandhomme, 8 Mitchell Santner, 9 Matt Henry, 10 Lockie Ferguson, 11 Trent Boult

Pitch and conditions

In the two matches that have already taken place at The Oval at this World Cup, three innings have gone past 300. This match will take place on a new pitch, though. The weather could also play a part. The forecast is for a mostly cloudy day with some showers. Depending on when those showers arrive, it could force teams to change tactics midway through.

Strategy punt

• Bangladesh have been promoting Shakib Al Hasan up the order in recent times, and it's a move they should stick with. His average at Nos. 3 and 4 is 43.4. From No. 5 to 7, it slips to 33.8. There is no big difference in strike rate, 80 in the upper middle order and 82.3 lower down. The reason for Shakib's improved numbers up the order could lie in his respective records against pace and spin. Since 2016, he has averaged a stunning 60.5 at a strike rate of 96.5 against pace. The corresponding numbers against spin are 28.8 and 73.9 - making it a no-brainer, really, to push him up the order.

• Matt Henry might have got his opportunity partly due to Tim Southee being injured, but now that he's in the XI, New Zealand shouldn't hesitate to throw him the new ball. Henry has been among the most effective, and under-rated, opening bowlers in ODIs. He averages 19.3 in the first ten overs, better than Trent Boult's 24.1. He also has a better bowling average against the top three (24.1) than he does against Nos. 4 to 7 (27.3), or even the tail (25.3) - further arguments for giving him the new ball. Finally, the clincher is Henry's stats against Asian teams versus non-Asian teams - he outperforms on every metric, average (20.7 to 35.9), economy rate (5.0 to 6.4) and strike rate (24.6 to 33.8).

Stats and trivia

• Ross Taylor is set to play his 400th international match. He will be the third New Zealander, behind Daniel Vettori and Brendon McCullum, to get to the landmark.

• This will be Shakib Al Hasan's 200th ODI.

• Trent Boult needs two wickets to get to 150 in ODIs.

Quotes

"We played in their home conditions recently, but we are in a neutral venue for this game. There's always pressure in a big tournament. They would be under more pressure if they are considered the favourites. We know each other well. We cannot underestimate ourselves, regardless of who we are playing against."
Soumya Sarkar is not fussed if Bangladesh carry the underdog tag

"Last time Bangladesh were in our country, it obviously wasn't ideal. It will be great to see them tomorrow. I'm sure both sides are looking forward to getting out there, and I guess getting back to the cricket field around what we love doing. You know they left pretty quickly, so we didn't get a chance to, I guess, see them, but it will be great to get out on the cricket field tomorrow and do what we love doing."
Tom Latham harks back to the Bangladesh tour that was cut short by a terror attack, and hopes for a good game tomorrow