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Olympic previews: men’s sprints and hurdles

Written by 
Published in Athletics
Friday, 23 July 2021 13:06
Trayvon Bromell, Noah Lyles, Karsten Warholm and Grant Holloway are among the speed merchants in action in Tokyo

We look ahead to the action in Tokyo. For more of our Olympic-related articles, CLICK HERE or subscribe to our monthly magazine.

100m (Final: 21.50 August 1 (14.50 BST))

In what will be the most watched sporting event in 2021, there will be no defending champion in the retired Usain Bolt and no world champion due to Christian Coleman’s suspension.

The Americans (with 17 previous winners) will again start huge favourites and could clean sweep the medals led by Trayvon Bromell. However, Canada, China, Japan and Italy also have major contenders.

2016 Olympic champion: Usain Bolt (JAM) 9.81
2019 World champion: Christian Coleman (USA) 9.76
World record-holder: Bolt 9.58, 2009
Olympic record-holder: Bolt 9.63, 2012
World leader: Trayvon Bromell 9.77

British interest: European champion Zharnel Hughes (10.06 this summer) and CJ Ujah (10.03) have possibilities of making the final. Late team addition Reece Prescod (10.13) is moving in the right direction but is not yet back in his best 2018-2019 form.

Top 10 entries by 2021 performances:
9.77/1.5 Trayvon Bromell USA Miramar 5 Jun
9.84/1.2 Akani Simbine RSA Székesfehérvár 6 Jul
9.85/0.8 Ronnie Baker USA Eugene 20 Jun
9.86/0.8 Fred Kerley USA Eugene 20 Jun
9.94/1.3 Gift Leotlela RSA Johannesburg 14 May
9.95/1.5 Lamont Marcell Jacobs ITA Savona 13 May
9.95/2.0 Ryota Yamagata JPN Tottori 6 Jun
9.95/0.1 Yohan Blake JAM Marietta 9 Jul
9.97/1.5 Benjamin Azamati GHA Austin 26 Mar
9.98/-0.9 Su Bingtian CHN Zhaoqing 24 Apr
nb 9.84 Alex Wilson SUI unconfirmed

Top contenders:
Trayvon Bromell (USA): The 2016 World Indoor champion sped to world leads of 9.88 in April and then 9.77 in early June and won the US trials in 9.80 and will be out to improve on his eighth in the 2016 final.
Andre de Grasse (CAN): A reliable bet for a medal having been third in both Rio and Doha and a sure-fire bet for a sub-10. Will also be a factor at 200m.
Akani Simbine (RSA): Another consistent performer who was top five in Rio, London and Doha without ever medalling but due a big race breakthrough and a 9.84 win at Székesfehérvár showed he the form of his life.
Yohan Blake (JAM): The former world champion was second in London in 2012 and is owner of a 9.69 PB and is still a regular sub-10 performer and should lead the Jamaican challenge.

Outside bet: Marcell Jacobs (ITA). The European Indoor 60m champion ran a world lead in winning in Torun and opened his outdoor season with a 9.95 Italian record.

Prediction:
With no Bolt, Coleman or Gatlin, this is far more open than past Championships. Wilson’s half a second season improvement from 10.38 to 9.84 can probably be discounted as a freak result.
1 Trayvon Bromell (USA) 9.72 (WA ranking: 7)
2 Andre De Grasse (CAN) 9.80 (5)
3 Akani Simbine (RSA) 9.81 (2)
4 Ronnie Baker (USA) 9.82 (3)
5 Lamont Jacobs (ITA) 9.89 (9)
6 Zharnel Hughes (GBR) 9.90 (4)
7 Yohan Blake (JAM) 9.91 (6)
8 Fred Kerley (USA) 9.93 (15)

Other final contenders:
CJ Ujah (GBR) (11)
Tyquendo Tracey (JAM) (13)
Aaron Brown (CAN) (14)
Arthur Cisse (CIV)
Zhenye Xie (CHN) (22)
Shuhei Tada (JPN) (31)
Bingtian Su (CHN) (40)
Alex Wilson (SUI) (76)

Missing from Tokyo
Justin Gatlin (USA) (1)
Michael Rodgers (USA) (9)
Noah Lyles (USA) (10)

Noah Lyles (Mark Shearman)

200m (Final: 21.55 August 4 (BST 14.55))

Bolt is again greatly missed here but this looks more open than the 100m but should still be an American-dominated event with the three US men all potential winners. Until the US Trials, World champion Noah Lyles had not shown his 2019 form so far this summer but is now clear favourite and could win USA’s 18th title at the event.

2016 Olympic champion: Usain Bolt (JAM) 19.78
2019 World champion: Noah Lyles (USA) 19.83
World record-holder: Bolt 19.19 2009
Olympic record-holder: Bolt 19.30, 2008
World leader: Lyles 19.74

British interest: In 2016 Adam Gemili (20.41 this summer) missed out on a medal by the smallest margin but has not shown the same form in 2021. Nethaneel Mitchell-Blake (20.76) was a late addition but is another nowhere near his best form when he was fourth in the 2017 world final and both the pair would need huge season’s best to make the final.

Top 10 entries on 2021 performances:
19.74/0.3 Noah Lyles USA Eugene 27 Jun
19.78/0.3 Kenny Bednarek USA Eugene 27 Jun
19.84/0.3 Erriyon Knighton USA Eugene 27 Jun
19.88/1.6 Divine Oduduru NGR Jacksonville 29 Apr
19.89/0.4 Andre De Grasse CAN Doha 28 May
19.91/-0.4 Joe Fahnbulleh LBR Eugene 11 Jun
20.10/-0.4 Shaun Maswanganye RSA Eugene 11 Jun
20.13/1.2 Jereem Richards TTO Székesfehérvár 6 Jul
20.14/1.2 Aaron Brown CAN Székesfehérvár 6 Jul
20.15/1.9 Isaac Makwala BOT Gaborone 16 May

Top contenders:
Noah Lyles (USA): He has not been beaten at 200m since his opening race of the 2019 season – and then he ran 19.72 – and while his form has not been quite at the same level in 2021 – he remains the favourite.
Kenny Bednarek (USA): The owner of a previous wind-assisted 19.49 and a 19.65 this year, he is guaranteed to do better than in the Doha World Championships where he exited with a 21.49 heat.
Erriyon Knighton (USA): Will become the youngest US team member for 57 years after breaking Bolt’s world under-20 record at the trials.
Andre de Grasse (CAN): Rio and Doha runner-up is ultra-consistent and has averaged 19.97 in his last three 200m races in 2021.

Outside bet: Divine Oduduru (NGR). The former world junior silver medallist and NCAA star has yet to fully make his mark in a senior championships but has run a 19.88 this summer.

Prediction:
1 Noah Lyles (USA) 19.65 (WA ranking 1)
2 Andre De Grasse (CAN) 19.72 (2)
3 Kenny Bednarek (USA) 19.75 (5)
4 Erriyon Knighton (USA) 19.83 (12)
5 Joseph Fahnbulleh (LBR) 19.90 (20)
6 Divine Oduduru (NGR) 19.95 (23)
7 Aaron Brown (CAN) 20.00 (6)
8 Alex Wilson (SUI) 20.01 (11)

Other final contenders:
Ramil Guliyev (TUR) (3)
Zhenye Xie (CHN) (7)
Adam Gemili (GBR) (8)
Jereem Richards (TTO) (9)
Kyle Greaux (TTO) (10)
Yuki Koike (JPN) (17)
Shaun Maswanganye (RSA) (36)
Yohan Blake (JAM) (41)
Steven Gardiner (BAH) (-)

Missing from Tokyo:
Alex Quinonez (ECU) (4) (drugs suspension)
Terrance Laird (USA) (13)
Zharnel Hughes (GBR) (21)
Fred Kerley (24)

400m (Final: 21.00 August 5 (BST 14.00))

The last few years have seen some exceptional running over one lap but 2021 was slow to get going with many of the world’s best lying low or hiding away and many have been a second down on their PB. That all changed at the NCAA and USA Trials.
USA have won 21 golds at the event and have never lost three in a row and they field  a strong trio again.

2016 Olympic champion: Wayde Van Niekerk 43.03
2019 World champion: Steven Gardiner (JAM) 43.48.
World and Olympic record-holder: Van Niekerk 43.03 2016
World leader: Randolph Ross (USA) 43.85

British interest: No athletes were selected for the individual event.

Top 10 entries on 2021 performances:
43.85 Randolph Ross USA Eugene 11 Jun
44.07 Michael Norman USA Eugene 20 Jun
44.35 Michael Cherry USA Eugene 20 Jun
44.47 Isaac Makwala BOT Chorzów 20 Jun
44.47 Steven Gardiner BAH Székesfehérvár 6 Jul
44.51 Anthony Zambrano COL Madrid 19 Jun
44.56 Wayde van Niekerk RSA Madrid 19 Jun
44.61 Kirani James GRN Doha 28 May
44.73 Deon Lendore TTO Stockholm 4 Jul
44.74 Dwight St. Hillare TTO Gainesville 3 Apr

Top contenders:
Wayde Van Niekerk (RSA): While he has run some fast 200m races this summer he injured himself in Boston and returned to run a 44.56 in Madrid. Unlikely to be in Rio form but may not need to be.
Michael Norman (USA): Owner of history’s equal fourth fastest time of .43.45 though he failed to make the World final that year in Doha, so a doubt remains about his big-time experience but he won the US trials in 44.07.
Steven Gardiner (BAH): Since his second place in the London World Championships in 2017, the current world champion has only lost two races (both at Zurich where he failed to finish) and has been in good but not great form in 2021.
Randolph Ross (USA):He has improved three seconds in 2021 highlighted by a shock 43.85 NCAA win. Was less impressive in the trials but a strong finish in 44.74 nabbed the third spot.

Outside bet: Kirani James (GRN). Ten years after he shocked with a world title as a teenager, the 2012 champion has been rather overlooked in recent years as a major contender but he ran a 44.88 opener in April and 44.61 in May

Steven Gardiner (Mark Shearman)

Prediction:
1 Steven Gardiner (BAH) 43.65 (WA ranking 1)
2 Michael Norman (USA) 43.88 (3)
3 Wayde Van Niekerk (RSA) 43.91 (not ranked)
4 Randolph Ross (USA) 43.95 (19)
5 Isaac Makwala (BOT) 44.12 (32)
6 Kirani James (GRN) 44.23 (5)
7 Michael Cherry (USA) 44.31 (10)
8 Anthony Zambrano (COL) 44.37 (4)

Other final contenders:
Demish Gaye (JAM) (7)
Machel Cedonio (TTO) (8)
Emmanuel Korir (KEN) (11)
Liemarvin Bonevacia (NED) (14)
Davide Re (ITA) (16)
Deon Lendore (TTO) (18)
Jonathan Jones (BAR) (21)
Chris Taylor (JAM) (37)
Zakhiti Nene (RSA) (41)
Ricky Petrucciani (SUI) (42)

Missing from Tokyo:
Fred Kerley (USA) (2)
Akeem Bloomfield (JAM) (6)
Vernon Norwood (USA) (9)
Matthew Hudson-Smith (GBR) (12)

110m Hurdles (Final: 11.55 August 5 (o4.55))

This looked like it was shaping up as a fairly straightforward battle between the world and Olympic champions with only those two looking capable of a sub-13 clocking. However the Jamaican selectors had a brain freeze and did not select Omar McLeod. If USA win it will be their 21st title.The rest combined have nine. The battle for second and third looks very open though.
2016 Olympic champion: Omar McLeod (JAM) 13.05
2019 World champion: Grant Holloway (USA) 13.10
World record-holder: Aries Merritt (USA) 12.80 2012
Olympic record-holder: Liu Xiang (CHN) 12.91 2004
World leader: Holloway 12.81
British interest: Former world indoor champion Andy Pozzi (13.25 this summer) should make the final and if he does could be close to a medal. Late team addition David King (13.37) will be doing well to make the semi-finals.

Top 10 entries on 2021 performances
12.81/1.8 Grant Holloway USA Eugene 26 Jun
13.06/1.2 Shunsuke Izumiya JPN Osaka 27 Jun
13.08/1.3 Ronald Levy JAM Kingston 26 Jun
13.10/1.2 Devon Allen USA Eugene 26 Jun
13.11/0.4 Daniel Roberts USA Eugene 26 Jun
13.11/0.6 Damion Thomas JAM Kingston 27 Jun
13.15/0.8 Wilhem Belocian FRA Angers 26 Jun
13.15/-0.1 Orlando Ortega ESP Székesfehérvár 6 Jul
13.16/1.7 Taioh Kanai JPN Hiroshima 29 Apr
13.16/0.6 Hansle Parchment JAM Kingston 27 Jun

Grant Holloway (Mark Shearman)

Top contenders:
Grant Holloway (USA): The World indoor record-breaker and world champion has looked superb all year and will be hard to beat and could break the world record based on his US trials semi-final.
Orlando Ortega (ESP): The Rio runner-up also medalled in Doha in 2019 and is a proven competitor and ran 13.15 a few weeks ago.
Ronald Levy (JAM): The Commonwealth champion leads a strong Jamaican trio and won recently in Gateshead but he has never even made a global final.
Sergey Shubenkov (ANA): The 2015 world champion ran 12.92 in 2018 but has been short of good competition in recent years because of the Russian ban. A 13.19 in July shows he is nearing his best form.
Outside bet: Shunsuke Izumiya (JPN): The world junior bronze medallist has improved from a 13.36 pre-2021 best to a Japanese record 13.06 this season.

Prediction:
1 Grant Holloway (USA) 12.79 (WA ranking 1)
2 Shunsuke Izumiya (JPN) 13.05 (17)
3 Sergey Shubenkov (ANA) 13.10 (3)
4 Orlando Ortega (ESP) 13.11 (2)
5 Devon Allen (USA) 13.12 (12)
6 Ronald Levy (JAM) 13.14 (6)
7 Daniel Roberts (USA) 13.17 (10)
8 Andy Pozzi (GBR) 13.21 (9)

Other final contenders:
Pascal Martinot-Lagarde (FRA) (4)
Wenjun Xie (CHN) (7)
Wilhem Belocian (FRA) (8)
Shane Brathwaite (BAR) (13)
Yaqoub Alyouha (KUW) (14)
Damian Czykier (POL) (15)
Shunsuke Izumiya (JPN) (17)
Taio Kanai (JPN) (22)
Hansle Parchment (JAM) (28)
Damion Thomas (JAM) (39)

Missing from Tokyo:
Omar McLeod (JAM) (5)
Freddie Crittenden (USA) (11)
Michael Dickson (USA (27)

400m Hurdles (Final: 12.20 August 3 (BST 05.20)

The Olympics has been a good venue for record-breaking at this event with the mark falling in the 1968, 1972, 1976 and 1992 Games though Karsten Warholm got the record-breaking in early this year as he responded to Rai Benjamin’s 46.83 at the US trials by creating history with a remarkable performance at Oslo and a time of 46.70.
The Norwegian is a clear favourite but both Benjamin and Abderrahmane Samba have also been inside 47 seconds in recent years as USA chase their 20th title.

2016 Olympic champion: Kerron Clement (USA) 47.73
2019 World champion: Karsten Warholm (NOR) 47.42
Olympic record-holder: Kevin Young 46.78 1992
World record-holder and world leader: Karsten Warholm (NOR) 46.70

British interest: No Britons made the qualifying time and Chris McAlister’s later invitation was declined by British Athletics.

Top 10 entries on 2021 performances
46.70 Karsten Warholm NOR Oslo 1 Jul
46.83 Rai Benjamin USA Eugene 26 Jun
47.34 Alison dos Santos BRA Stockholm 4 Jul
47.50 Kyron McMaster IVB Walnut 9 May
48.08 Kenny Selmon USA Eugene 26 Jun
48.18 Jaheel Hyde JAM Kingston 25 Jun
48.19 Yasmani Copello TUR Stockholm 4 Jul
48.26 Abderrahmane Samba QAT Doha 28 May
48.38 Dave Kendziera USA Eugene 26 Jun
48.39 Thomas Barr IRL Turku 7 Jun

Top contenders:
Karsten Warholm (NOR):
As at mid June the world champion had not run a 400m hurdles but a 33.26 world best at 300m hurdles was followed by a stunning world record .
Abderrahmane Samba (QAT): His 46.98 came three years ago but the Doha bronze medallist had not broken 48 seconds by mid-June.
Rai Benjamin (USA): The Doha runner-up ran 47.13 in early May and then produced a run of 46.83 at the trials to suggest he will push Warholm very close indeed and could better Warholm’s mark and still end up second.
Outside bet: Kyron McMaster (IVB). The Commonwealth champion and Doha fourth-placer has improved to 47.50 this summer.

Prediction:
1 Karsten Warholm (NOR) 46.75 (WA ranking 1)
2 Rai Benjamin (USA) 46.78 (2)
3 Alison Dos Santos (BRA) 47.21 (3)
4 Kyron McMaster (IVB) 47.33 (4)
5 Abderrahman Samba (QAT) 47.65 (5)
6 Kenny Selmon (USA) (14)
7 Yasmani Copello (TUR) (6)
8 Thomas Barr (IRL) (9)

Other final contenders:
Rasmus Magi (EST) (8)
David Kendziera (USA) (10)
Ludvy Vaillant (FRA) (11)
Abdelmalik Lahoulou (ALG) (13)
Constantin Preis (GER) (16)
Alessandro Sibilio (ITA) (19)
Takatoshi Abe (JPN) (20)
Kariem Hussein (SUI) (25)
Jaheel Hyde (JAM)(29)
Kazuki Kurokawa (JPN) (32)

Missing from Tokyo:
TJ Holmes (USA) (7)
Kemar Mowatt (USA) (12)
Amere Lattin (USA) (15)
Patryk Dobek (POL) (17)
Sean Burrell (USA) (42)

Karsten Warholm (Diamond League AG)

4x100m (Final: 22.50 August 6 (BST 15.50))

With so many sub-10 performers at their disposal, USA should only need to play it safe to win gold and their 16th title but minus Coleman shouldn’t challenge the world record but the battle for second looks open with home nation Japan having an excellent medal chance.
2016 Olympic champion: Jamaica 37.27
2019 World champion: USA 37.10
World & Olympic record-holder: Jamaica 36.84 2012
World leader: Turkey 38.20

British interest: Britain ran a European record 37.36 in Doha and a repeat should see another medal though their individual runners were still fighting for their best form pre-Games though a win at Gateshead was a move in the right direction.

Top 10 contenders on 2021 performances
38.20 Turkey Erzurum 12 Jun
38.27 China Chongqing 25 Jun
38.27 Great Britain Gateshead 13 Jul
38.29 Canada Gateshead 13 Jul
38.32 Germany Regensburg 20 Jun
38.33 Jamaica Spanish Town 8 May
38.45 Italy Chorzów 1 May
38.45 Brazil Chorzów 1 May
38.49 South Africa Chorzów 1 May
38.49 Netherlands Gateshead 13 Jul

Top contenders:
USA: They may be minus world champion Coleman but with a squad jam-packed full of sub-10 performers, who all have years of relay competition behind them they must be huge favourites.
Jamaica: The world record-holders and Olympic champions have six of the 10 fastest ever times but they don’t look the same outfit minus Bolt and did not even make the final at Doha.
Japan: They don’t have the big names but the runners-up from Rio and bronze medallists from Doha are improving. They will have home advantage and they will probably be the best drilled quartet in town.
Outside bet: China: The 2015 World Championships runners-up have been top six in the three global events since.

Prediction:
1 USA 37.29 (WA ranking 1)
2 Japan 37.40 (3)
3 GBR 37.45 (2)
4 Canada 37.51 (13)
5 Jamaica 37.66 (14)
6 China 37.68 (6)
7 Brazil 38.06 (4)
8 South Africa 38.12 (5)

Other final contenders:
France (7)
Netherlands (8)
Italy (9)
Denmark (10)
Ghana (11)
Germany (12)
Trinidad (15)
Turkey (16)

4x400m: (Final: 21.50 August 7 (BST 14.50))

USA are so dominant with regards to the 2021 400m rankings – with 13 of the 21 sub 45 performers they would clean sweep were they allowed B and C teams especially as traditional medal challengers Jamaica, Great Britain and Belgium’s best one-lap athletes look either past their best or not at their fittest.

2016 Olympic champion: USA 2:57.30
Olympic record holder: USA 2:55.39 2008
2019 World champion: USA 2:56.69
World record-holder: USA 2:54.29 1993
World leader: USA 3:00.75

British interest: Britain – the second most successful nation at the event – last won medals in 2008 and with no Martyn Rooney and no one good enough to qualify for the individual event, they may struggle to even make the final even if they get the baton round and don’t incur the wrath of the judges which has been a recent problem,

Top 10 contenders on 2021 performances
3:00.75 USA Gainesville 17 Apr
3:01.89 India Patiala 25 Jun
3:01.96 Germany Leverkusen 27 Jun
3:02.35 Poland Leverkusen 27 Jun
3:02.42 Czech Republic Cluj-Napoca 20 Jun
3:02.49 Netherlands Cluj-Napoca 20 Jun
3:02.64 Italy Chorzów 30 May
3:02.87 Bahamas Nassau 27 Jun

Top contenders:
USA: They have won 17 of the 24 titles on offer (losing another one retrospectively) and really should have far too much fire power this time and had the potential for a world record but may lack any competition to pressurise them.
South Africa: They last won an Olympic medal at this event over a century ago but with four athletes at 45.58 or faster not counting the world record-holder Van Niekerk they clearly should be a factor.
Trinidad: It looks they will have a trio of 400m runners only topped by USA but the Doha fifth-placers do look like they have a vulnerable fourth runner based on individual times.
Outside bet: Netherlands: They have never won a medal at the event but there has been a great improvement of Dutch one-lap running and this year they have won the European Indoor title and the World Relays albeit in very slow times.

Prediction:
1 USA 2:54.13 (WA ranking 1)
2 Trinidad 2:59.45 (5)
3 Japan 2:59.65 (10)
4 Jamaica 2:59.76 (2)
5 South Africa 2:59.85 (12)
6 Netherlands 3:00.23 (9)
7 Belgium 3:01.00 (3)
8 Great Britain 3:01.05 (8)

Other final contenders:
Colombia (4)
Italy (6)
France (7)
Botswana (11)
India (13)
Germany (14)
Poland (15)
Czech Republic (16)

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