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'Confidence to return slowly building among teams' - Sangakkara
A 12-member MCC squad, led by Kumar Sangakkara, landed in Lahore on a week-long trip to play a series of four T20 matches starting Friday. This could be another step in the right direction - some are even terming it a "major coup" - as Pakistan aims to regularly host internationals in the country.
Over the last two months, Pakistan has hosted Sri Lanka and Bangladesh for Tests and limited-overs matches. West Indies too toured in October for three T20Is. Now, talks are underway to host South Afric for three T20Is after the PSL, all of which will be played in the country.
Sangakkara believes successful staging of matches itself, like they have recently, will be proof for foreign teams still wary of traveling. He believes the steps taken by Pakistan over the last few years have already "instilled great amount of confidence in the cricket nations."
"Rather than a direct message by saying something to them, the best thing that we can do is send that message by the way we play in the field," he said at a press conference in Lahore. "The more times international sides tour that message becomes stronger and becomes harder to ignore.
"I think the MCC is here because one of the core philosophy of the MCC is that we are independent, the spirit of cricket is strong and the spirit of cricket transcends most barriers, but sometimes keeps nation and people apart. And for us to be part of this tour is to strengthen that message as well."
The MCC, which last toured Pakistan under the captaincy of Mike Denness in 1973, has been at the forefront of efforts taken to ensure cricket returns to the country. Now back to Pakistan in a different capacity, Sangakkara, who was part of the horrific terrorist attack on the Sri Lankan team in Lahore in 2009, feels fans needed to watch their heroes in real for the game to thrive in an already cricket-mad country.
"Cricket belongs to everyone, but for the players to have that platform and display their skills you need to have that support," Sangakkara said. "The fact is that you need to have an underpinning of young to inspire to take up the game.
"So if there is no home cricket for a very long period of time, there is a danger that sometime that kind of hunger might go away. The more cricket that you play here at home, the more times young children and the fabulous fans of Pakistan can see their side, their players play in front of them, within almost touching distance.
"I think that is wonderful for the game, it is wonderful for the country and it's great for the global game. We should not lose sight of how important the strength of Pakistan is in that big picture of having global cricket in a very, very healthy and strong state.
"The MCC tour is a part of completing that puzzle, and I think this is a great step by everyone to combine and to be here to again try and encourage sides to come back and play cricket in Pakistan."
The MCC is slated to play against PSL teams Lahore Qalandars and Multan Sultans, as well as Pakistan's domestic T20 champions, Northerns. The tour also includes a 50-over fixture against Pakistan Shaheens at Aitchison College.
The MCC squad includes England international Ravi Bopara, Scotland's Safyaan Sharif and Michael Leask, Netherlands duo Roelof van der Merwe and Fred Klaassen, along with county players from Warwickshire, Leicestershire, Kent and Worcestershire. England internationals Samit Patel and Liam Dawson, as well as Sussex's Phil Salt will also participate.
Some of the Pakistan players featuring in the games include Mohammad Hafeez, Mohammad Irfan and Shan Masood.
Bubble Watch 2020: Auburn takes another step up
Editor's note: The NCAA tournament Bubble Watch has been updated through Wednesday's games.
Bubble Watch extends a hearty welcome to Auburn as the 12th team to achieve lock status in our venerable three-tier hierarchy of tournament hopefuls. Congratulations, Tigers.
Our discussion at Bubble Watch HQ regarding this momentous decision was brief and harmonious. The calendar says it's mid-February. Auburn is a major-conference team with a 22-2 record. Bruce Pearl's men could suffer a total collapse at this point and still make the field of 68 teams.
The Tigers like to shoot 3s and, despite their run-and-gun image during the Pearl era, they're surprisingly excellent on the defensive glass. Devan Cambridge is a seldom-glimpsed freshman who's 5-of-17 from the line this season, yet once a month or so he explodes with devastating consequences for the opponent. Ask LSU sometime about the seven 3s Cambridge drained in Auburn's overtime win against the Bayou Bengals.
What's especially intriguing about Pearl's team, however, is the degree to which its record (outstanding) has exceeded how well it plays both offense (pretty good) and defense (average). Laptops tend to look at this kind of per-possession performance and proclaim a .917 winning percentage "unsustainable."
In fact, four of the Tigers' past five games have gone to overtime, and Pearl's team has won all four contests. Nevertheless, Auburn really is 22-2 with a nine-point win over Kentucky to its credit.
Happily, for our purposes here at Bubble Watch, this contretemps between laptops and scoreboards is a moot point. Auburn is going to the tournament, and the Tigers are likely to earn a really nice seed. Lock that in.
Here's our current projection of the bubble:
Bids from traditional "one-bid" leagues: 21 teams
Locks: 12 teams
The bubble: 46 teams for 35 available spots
Should be in: 19 teams
Work to do: 27 teams
ACC | Big 12 | Big East | Big Ten | Pac-12 | SEC | American | Others
ACC
Locks: Duke, Florida State, Louisville
Work to do
One year after winning it all, Virginia continues to straddle the boundary line between an NCAA bid and the NIT. While the overtime win at home against bubble hopeful Notre Dame merely continues the suspense, the Cavaliers will get home dates against both Duke and Louisville (sandwiched around a game at Miami) to close out the season. The Hoos have already defeated Florida State in Charlottesville, and a home sweep against the ACC's top three teams would make a pretty persuasive case. Put it this way: Virginia can still play its way in for a chance to defend its title.
NC State is clinging doggedly to its spot on the far outer fringes of Bubble Watch's domain. Emphasis on far outer fringes: Kevin Keatts' group is 7-6 in a weak ACC, its NET ranking is sticking around No. 60 and the best wins on the profile -- road victories versus Virginia, UNC Greensboro and Syracuse -- collectively form a résumé currency of fluctuating value. This is the part where the Watch qualifies all of the above by noting that the Wolfpack still get two games against Duke and one (at home) against Florida State. That is indeed the case, and one win in those three contests will likely be the minimum required to continue this conversation.
Big 12
Locks: Baylor, Kansas, West Virginia
Should be in
With four wins in its past five outings (and the only loss coming by three points at Kansas), Texas Tech is showing up in mock brackets as a No. 8 seed. The Red Raiders' 3-point accuracy in Big 12 play has been the best in the league by a wide margin, and freshman Jahmi'us Ramsey is fulfilling the expectations that the "highest-ranked recruit in Texas Tech history" label brings. Now the schedule gives Chis Beard's group a fair chance of reaching 19-8 overall and 10-4 in conference play before meeting Oklahoma in semi-neutral Oklahoma City later this month.
Work to do
When the Watch most recently discussed the Sooners, our diligent researchers turned up the shocking fact that "Oklahoma hasn't won two consecutive games since early January." Lon Kruger must have nailed that statement to the bulletin board, because OU promptly went out and pummeled Iowa State 90-61 in Norman. Paired with the impressive 10-point victory at home over West Virginia, the game against the Cyclones gave Oklahoma its second consecutive win. The Sooners are projected as a No. 9 or 10 seed, and extending this current win streak will take some doing. OU's next two games are at Kansas and at home against Baylor.
Big East
Lock: Seton Hall
Should be in
Their recent 3-5 stretch notwithstanding, the Bulldogs are rapidly approaching lock status. LaVall Jordan's team is 19-6 with a NET ranking in the top 15 and with wins over Creighton, Villanova and Marquette to its credit. The mock brackets see Butler as a No. 4 seed, and BU's interior defense is excellent. While the Bulldogs will want to address the turnover imbalance they've displayed during Big East play in order to make a deep tournament run, the material point for Bubble Watch purposes is that BU's on track for one of the best seeds in program history.
The losing streak is over, and Villanova held off a late Marquette rally to win by one point at home. Like, seemingly, half the Big East, the Wildcats are showing up around the Nos. 4 and 5 lines in terms of projected seed, and Jay Wright's team has already split two-game sets with Butler, Creighton and the aforementioned Golden Eagles. That leaves Seton Hall. Villanova lost at home to the Pirates by six earlier this month. A win in the return match in New Jersey (where, surprisingly, Kevin Willard's team has already lost to Xavier and the Bluejays) could nudge the Wildcats up a seed line.
Before their five-point win at Seton Hall, the Bluejays seemed to be headed for a No. 5 seed. Now? A top-four seed could be within reach if Creighton finishes strong, but, as the Pirates themselves can attest, long win streaks are difficult to sustain in the Big East. The Bluejays will seek to buck that trend in upcoming games at home against DePaul and on the road at Marquette. Say this for Creighton: An offense this balanced is hard to guard. Marcus Zegarowski, Ty-Shon Alexander, Damien Jefferson and Denzel Mahoney each scored 18 in the victory in Newark, New Jersey.
Markus Howard is now the Big East's all-time leading scorer, and it appears that Marquette will receive its second consecutive seed somewhere in the Nos. 5 to 8 area. These are good times for the Golden Eagles basketball program. One facet of MU's performance that could prove problematic, however, is the microscopic turnover rate being recorded by Big East opponents. Opposing offenses have given the ball away on just 12.8% of their possessions in conference play. With a turnover rate that low, opponents can and do score even when they're not hitting shots.
Work to do
Xavier's February win streak came to an end in a 66-61 loss at Butler, and now the Musketeers are 5-7 in the Big East with a NET ranking in the low 40s. On paper, that's likely good enough to get the job done when your wins include a victory over Seton Hall in Newark. Sure enough, Travis Steele's men were more or less universally regarded as being in the hypothetical field, either as a No. 10 or 11 seed, before the Butler loss. In short, there appears to be a clear path for Xavier to secure a bid. Note for example that the upcoming game against St. John's at Madison Square Garden could potentially qualify as Quad 1, depending on how Mike Anderson's team fares between now and Selection Sunday.
The Hoyas are still lurking in the bubble picture (albeit outside the projected field), but the schedule is running out of patience with this bunch. Patrick Ewing's men have hosted Marquette, Butler and Seton Hall over the past month and come away with an 0-3 record. Now Georgetown is 4-7 in conference play and trying to make a push with what on paper is the worst defense in the Big East. The next game is at Butler, and a win there would breathe life into a profile that's in danger of becoming an afterthought. Perhaps Jahvon Blair, he of the 30 points against Providence, can help provide the necessary resuscitation.
Big Ten
Lock: Maryland
Should be in
The Nittany Lions are on the verge of earning the best NCAA tournament seed in program history. PSU secured a spot on the No. 5 line in the 1996 tournament, and this season Lamar Stevens & Co. are projected as a No. 4 seed. Pat Chambers' men hit their 3s and take very good care of the ball. It's simple. It works. If this group can work around its iffy rebounding and frequent (by Big Ten standards) fouling, we might see Penn State in the Sweet 16 again after an absence of 19 years.
After ending their three-game losing streak with a 70-69 win at Illinois, the Spartans find themselves outside of the AP Top 25 yet still projected as a No. 5 seed in the tournament field. Moreover, MSU's tumultuous season of ups and downs has resulted in at least one outcome we were expecting in the preseason: Michigan State can still claim the Big Ten's best defense in conference play. If the offense is turnover-prone and perhaps a bit too reliant on Cassius Winston, it also possesses one of the more accurate 3-point shooting rotations in the league. MSU would not be an ordinary No. 5 seed.
The story so far: Iowa's offense is amazing, yet its defense is amazingly benevolent to opponents. The Big Ten is converting 54% of its 2-point attempts against the Hawkeyes, and even with Luka Garza having a season for the ages, Iowa had barely managed to outscore its conference opponents until an easy win at home over Nebraska furnished some degree of statistical cushion. This team is on track for a high seed, perhaps on the No. 5 line, and with better defense, the Hawkeyes could make the second weekend for the first time since 1999.
In the course of losing three games in a row, Illinois has seen its projected seed fall to the No. 7 line. The Illini's one-point loss at home to Michigan State ended with Ayo Dosunmu being helped off the floor after he slipped awkwardly on the game's final play. It goes without saying that the sophomore's continued health is vital to his team's postseason chances. Note additionally that Illinois has a decent shot at achieving a rare feat. If present trends continue, the Illini will make the NCAA tournament as an at-large while also finishing the regular season as their conference's least accurate team from the field in league play.
Ohio State is holding steady as a projected No. 7 or 8 seed after a six-point win at home over Rutgers. The Buckeyes have battled the best conference in the country to a scoring draw (OSU 887 points, opponents 884) despite the fact that opposing offenses have hit an exceptionally high share of their 3-point attempts against this defense. The hot shooting by opponents is likely to cool off eventually, so maybe those laptops were onto something when they insisted on rating Chris Holtmann's team very high. A win at home against Purdue on Saturday would bring the Buckeyes to .500 in Big Ten play at 7-7.
If the mock brackets are correct and Rutgers does end up with a No. 8 seed, this would not necessarily be an easy opponent for a top seed to face in the round of 32. The Scarlet Knights are just different. They don't shoot many 3s, they force turnovers, they rebound well at both ends of the floor and they force misses in the paint. The Watch is also struck by the fact that any No. 8 seed given to Steve Pikiell's group will have been earned the hard way. Rutgers is closing the regular season against the following opponents: Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State, Maryland and Purdue. All of those teams are currently projected to make the tournament.
Wisconsin has now recorded seven Quad 1 wins (against the same number of losses), including a season sweep of Ohio State and the only victory recorded by a visiting team so far this season at Penn State. The nine-point loss on a neutral floor to New Mexico will continue to look odd on the team sheet, but the Badgers still possess one of the more robust profiles you'll see from a team that's 14-10 overall. Currently pegged as a likely No. 7 or 8 seed, Greg Gard's men have a more favorable closing schedule than some of their Big Ten rivals and could end the regular season with some momentum
It's been a good 80 minutes for the Wolverines. After beating Michigan State by nine in Ann Arbor, Juwan Howard's team blew Northwestern away 79-54 in Evanston, Illinois. The latter game represented the first victory by greater than 11 points for U-M in weeks. Now you're looking at a projected No. 8 seed that's 6-7 in the league and ranked in the top 35 in the NET. Michigan's been the most accurate 2-point shooting team in Big Ten play by a wide margin, while the Wolverines' past two opponents have connected just 37% of the time inside the arc. Again, a good 80 minutes.
Work to do
It has been a good February for the Boilermakers, even when factoring an 88-76 loss at home to Penn State into the equation. By the time Matt Painter's men had lost that game, they had risen to a No. 10 seed or even a 9-seed in mock brackets. Purdue's defense forces an exceptionally high number of turnovers; and to this point in the conference season, the Boilers have outscored the league by the same per-possession margin as the Nittany Lions. One consequence of the depth of the Big Ten this season is that a team can be 14-10 overall and 7-7 in conference and still be dangerous in March.
Supplying perhaps an apt synecdoche for Indiana basketball since 2002, Bob Knight finally made his emotional and much anticipated return to Assembly Hall on a day when the Hoosiers materially damaged their tournament hopes by losing at home to Purdue. The memories surrounding and achievements recorded by the IU program in the previous century are unfailingly compelling. Basketball performance in the recent past, conversely, has tended to be rather more prosaic. Indiana is now projected as a No. 10 seed.
Say for the sake of discussion that Minnesota would not make the tournament if the selection occurred today. After all, that seems to be the consensus mock-bracket opinion regarding a team that's 12-11 overall and 6-7 in its conference. Now, how do the Golden Gophers pry an at-large bid out of the committee? Win the next three games. With Iowa and Indiana coming to Minneapolis and then a road game taking place at Northwestern, Richard Pitino's group has the motive and the opportunity to get this done. Plus, with Daniel Oturu, Minnesota has the means.
Pac-12
Locks: None
Should be in
In back-to-back road losses at Stanford and Oregon State, the Ducks shot percentages of 40 and 30 on their 2s and 3s, respectively. Payton Pritchard was 12-of-42 from the field over those two games, and while the Watch has been lavish in its praise of the senior, an Oregon offense predicated so exclusively on Pritchard hero ball does not look like a viable strategy for what could still be a nascent No. 4 seed. UO, you are on notice. Any more of this "losing basketball games" nonsense and you will (gasp!) fall below Colorado in "Should be in."
Having wins over Dayton and Oregon is a good place to start your profile, and the Buffaloes additionally blew USC off its home floor by 21. If Tad Boyle's team earns its projected No. 6 seed, that will represent the best bracket position occupied by the program since seeds became a 64-team thing in 1985. Although defense has been CU's leading characteristic on the season as a whole, that script has been flipped dramatically in conference play: Tyler Bey, McKinley Wright IV and the rest of the Buffs have been scoring points at a rate higher than that of any other Pac-12 offense.
"Pencil this group in for a potential No. 6 seed," the Watch said with customary bravado when last we discussed Arizona. "All bets are off with this sporadically hapless group," the Watch now says with newfound concern regarding the Wildcats. Sean Miller's group went out and lost 65-52 at home to UCLA, adding to a growing body of work under the heading of weirdly troubling defeats. With losses to the non-tournament likes of St. John's, Oregon State and now the Bruins, the men from Tucson are looking more and more like a middle seed that will be feared by few.
Work to do
Three straight losses have dropped USC from the sunlit uplands of the projected single-digit seeds into a more perilous crevasse inhabited by anxious double-digit types. Basketball is cruel. Two of those defeats -- road games at Arizona and Arizona State -- were decided by five points or fewer. Now the Trojans face that most uncharitable of bubble dilemmas in the form of home games against Washington and Washington State. Wins there won't improve USC's profile to any notable degree. A loss (to say nothing of losses, plural) will harm it. Again, basketball is cruel.
Let's not overthink this: Stanford has lost five of its past six games, though the one victory was a 10-point win at home over Oregon. Jerod Haase's team has dropped to a No. 10 seed in mock brackets and now will host Arizona and Arizona State in Palo Alto, California. Two wins there are advisable for a 5-5 Pac-12 team that has been clinging to its enduringly lofty top-30ish NET ranking like a life raft.
Bobby Hurley's men have insinuated themselves into the bubble discussion with three consecutive wins (at Washington and at home against UCLA and USC) and a NET ranking in the 50s. We won't have to wait long to see whether the Sun Devils are a legitimate object of bubble suspense for a third consecutive year or whether this is merely a passing February fancy. ASU hits the road this week for games at Stanford and Cal.
SEC
Locks: Auburn
Should be in
The Wildcats will be burdened with the Evansville and Utah losses when the committee seeds this team, and, well, that's how this sausage gets made. Nevertheless, it appears increasingly likely that Kentucky really will turn out to be the best team in the SEC, just like the pollsters expected back in the preseason. The offense has looked quite good in UK's past three wins (recording a combined 1.17 points per trip at home against Mississippi State and on the road against Tennessee and Vanderbilt). When reliable scoring is mixed with a defense that forces missed shots, you have the makings of a dangerous No. 4 or 5 seed.
Join the Watch in celebrating the statistical excess provided to us by projected No. 6 seed LSU. The Tigers score efficiently, and so do their opponents. Will Wade's men record a strikingly high volume of shot attempts, and, well, opposing offenses show much the same behavior. The Tigers take excellent care of the ball, and ... you see how this works. Off-court uncertainty persists, of course, and on the court, LSU's incredible run of close-game success evaporated with losses at Vanderbilt and Auburn, before returning long enough for a four-point win at home over Missouri. Just the same, this is the best two-season run the program has posted since the days of Tyrus Thomas and Glen "Big Baby" Davis.
Work to do
After losing two games in a row in overtime, Arkansas turned over a new leaf of sorts by getting blown off the floor 82-61 at Tennessee. The Razorbacks have now tasted defeat in six of their past seven conference games. In the mock brackets, Eric Musselman's team has fallen down to the No. 10 line. Even that might be a bit lofty for a 4-7 SEC team that has recorded a worse per-possession scoring margin in conference play than Ole Miss, South Carolina or Tennessee. Wins at Alabama and Indiana might have to do some heavy lifting in the committee room on the Hogs' behalf.
The Gators are hanging on to the very edge of the field as a projected No. 11 seed. A 17-point win at Texas A&M won't change that state of affairs one way or the other, though two upcoming games against Kentucky and one meeting with LSU (in Gainesville) very likely will. In fact, one rough rule of thumb for Florida's tournament chances would be that, other things being equal, anything more than three subsequent losses could turn out to be bad news. In SEC play, Florida's offense has been very good (thanks to accurate shooting, particularly from beyond the arc) and its defense has been average.
The Bulldogs were winning all the right games and even losing the one that's not the end of the world (an 80-72 setback at Kentucky). Then Ben Howland's team went out and lost at Ole Miss 83-58. Prior to that contest, Mississippi State had played itself to the very edge of the tournament field. Now, MSU is already close to "needs a run in the conference tournament" territory. This weekend's game at Arkansas is the only remaining Quad 1 opportunity on the Bulldogs' schedule.
American
Locks: None
Should be in
The Cougars took command of the American regular-season race with their 33-point win at home over Wichita State last weekend. Then Houston held onto that commanding position, barely, with a four-point win at South Florida. Mock brackets show Kelvin Sampson's team as a No. 7 seed, and Caleb Mills, Marcus Sasser and Nate Hinton keep opposing defenses honest on the perimeter. While UH is just average in terms of accuracy from the field, this team does just about everything else well on both sides of the ball. The Cougars are capable of giving a No. 2 seed a game in the round of 32.
Work to do
Would it be hyperbolic to say the Shockers are in free fall? Gregg Marshall's team has lost three in a row and five of its past seven. South Florida and Tulane are the only teams that have scored fewer points per possession in American play, and the WSU offense is making less than 43% of its 2s against conference opponents. Wichita State carried a top-50 NET ranking and a projected No. 9 seed into its most recent loss, a 76-43 drubbing at Houston. That seed expectation feels too high 40 minutes later.
Suspense can be the best-case scenario for a team in UC's position. After losing by one point in overtime at Connecticut, the Bearcats are 1-5 in Quad 1 contests. The schedule gives Cincinnati just one more regular-season shot at improving that record in the form of a game at Houston on the first day of March. Basically, it would be easier for Cincinnati to lose its way off the bubble than it will be to clearly establish itself in the field of 68 with the amount of runway the regular season supplies. For what it's worth, per-possession numbers suggest the Bearcats aren't likely to lose often enough to rule themselves out of contention. The safe bet is suspense.
Right, so that part where the Watch was saying we should give credit to Memphis for "winning the games it's supposed to win"? That's a dead letter. The Tigers lost at home to South Florida 75-74, Penny Hardaway's team is on a trajectory that will yield an American record not much better than .500, and it's not at all clear that such a mark will suffice for an at-large bid. Mock brackets have responded accordingly, and Memphis is now shown as a borderline case that will be sweating out Selection Sunday if present trends continue.
Others
Locks: Gonzaga, San Diego State, Dayton
Work to do
Speaking in terms of league play only, the Cougars are one of the most accurate teams from the field that we've seen in recent years. BYU's effective FG percentage thus far in West Coast Conference play (62.0) compares favorably with what we saw from Villanova in its heyday (60.3 in 2018). Different strengths of schedule and, most of all, different numbers of games: Mark Pope's team has taken the floor in conference play 11 times. Nevertheless, consider this an early tip for filling out your bracket if BYU does end up with something around a No. 8 seed. These guys don't miss.
Notching the season sweep over VCU will help URI's tournament prospects. Naturally, sweeping Dayton would have helped even more, but the Rams lost the first leg of that two-game set when they fell on the road to the Flyers 81-67. Rhode Island now holds the distinction of recording the least accurate game of shooting from the field of any UD opponent in more than four years. (URI players not named Fatts Russell were 12-of-48 from the floor.) More to the point, the Rams also hold a projected No. 9 seed. A loss on the home floor of a projected No. 2 seed represents a blown opportunity, but it won't harm Rhode Island's profile.
This is not the first time in program history that Saint Mary's profile has been driven in large part by its performance against Gonzaga, and the Gaels just lost by 30 at home to the Bulldogs. Randy Bennett's team has already split its season series with BYU, and there's one trip remaining to Spokane, Washington, to face the Zags. SMC also has the two-point neutral-floor win over Wisconsin in its back pocket. Does this résumé add up to a No. 9 or 10 seed? So far, the consensus seems to be yes.
VCU entered Wednesday night's home game against George Mason with a top-35 ranking in the NET, so the Rams arguably had a little more wiggle room than one might suppose in terms of the bracket. Just the same, losing to the Patriots 72-67 on one's home floor is not the recommended course of action for a projected No. 12 seed. GMU took the floor with a NET ranking in the 170s, making this a Quad 4 loss for VCU. Were the Rams looking ahead toward their next two games, at Richmond and at home against Dayton? Those games are even more important for Mike Rhoades' team now.
The Panthers are one of the most accurate teams in the nation (take a bow, Austin Phyfe), and their chances of emerging from the Missouri Valley Conference with the league's automatic bid are good. Then again, upsets do happen at conference tournaments, as seen last year when Bradley grabbed a No. 15 seed in the field of 68 by beating UNI in the Arch Madness title game in St. Louis. Should Ben Jacobson's team need to throw its hat in the at-large ring, a NET ranking in the top 40 and a true road win at Colorado should give the men from Cedar Falls a fighting chance in the committee room.
With wins on neutral floors over LSU and Florida, the Aggies have some meat on their résumé, even after going 0-for-2 against San Diego State during the Mountain West regular season. The challenge for Craig Smith's team now will be staying viable as an at-large candidate facing a series of tough but not Quad 1 MWC road games with a NET ranking in the high 40s. If USU does take care of business, a win against the Aztecs in the Mountain West tournament could be just what the committee needs to see. Alternately, such a win might take place in the MWC tournament title game and thus render the question moot.
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
Steve Forbes' team accomplished what no SEC team has been able to do. ETSU beat LSU, and in Baton Rouge, no less. That will brighten a résumé, and either way, the Buccaneers are more than one-game wonders. ETSU is 22-4 overall and locked in a battle with Furman for supremacy in the Southern Conference. Can the Buccaneers earn an at-large bid if they don't prevail at the SoCon tournament? Doing so will take a large number of wins, given the nature of this schedule. ETSU not only doesn't have any Quad 1 opportunities remaining, the Buccaneers also have only one Quad 2 game left on the schedule (at Wofford, later this month).
The dream of an Ivy at-large endures, "dream" meaning we've never seen it before. Perhaps this is the year, or possibly Yale will win the automatic bid and won't need the help. In either event, this is potentially the strongest Bulldogs team James Jones has had in his 21-year tenure in New Haven, Connecticut. Running the table seemed like a real possibility until Harvard won 78-77 at Lee Amphitheater. The number of Ivy losses that Yale can afford to incur while still entertaining realistic hopes of an at-large bid may be greater than one, but not by much. Meantime, Paul Atkinson is piling up the points in the paint, and Yale's NET ranking is hovering in top-50 territory.
You might remember the Flames as the team that, in a 2019 NCAA tournament first weekend remarkably devoid of upsets, scored an upset. Ritchie McKay's No. 12-seeded team knocked out Mississippi State 80-76. One year later, Liberty is again hoping to make waves in the bracket. With a punishing defense and the voluminous interior scoring of Scottie James, the Flames will be heavily favored to win the automatic bid from the Atlantic Sun. If they should not do so, McKay's men will have to fall back on a really impressive-looking record (currently 23-3) and, ideally, a better NET ranking than the 60-ish one they show now.
If you're a Richmond fan, this was a bad season for the Atlantic 10 league office to hand you just one shot at Dayton. The Spiders lost that game 87-79 in Virginia, and the regular-season series is now finished. Perhaps the two teams will meet in the A-10 tournament, but, first, Chris Mooney's men will play local rival VCU for a second time. The Spiders lost the first meeting, and a victory at home would provide a needed boost for Richmond even though (barely) it's not a Quad 1 contest. In other words, a win over the Rams would at least keep UR in the discussion, however tenuously.
Bilas Index 3.0: The Bilastrator's official NCAA tournament tiers
Welcome to The Bilas Index, the most comprehensive and complete examination and evaluation of basketball proficiency and ability on this, or any, planet. The Bilas Index is not just a metric, it is the metric that is compiled through the analysis of data, the meticulous review of film, and in-depth scouting of teams, players and coaches, all of which is run through the massive brain of The Bilastrator, which is the most precise, accurate and powerful instrument in the history of basketball. The beautiful bald dome of The Bilastrator, which can be seen weekly on Bald Men on Campus, 9 p.m. ET Fridays on the ACC Network, houses the only gray matter that matters, the thoughts and judgments of The Bilastrator himself.
The 2019-20 season has been fabulous, largely because it has been about showing consistency rather than overwhelming force. Freedom of Movement is dead; therefore, teams may now hand check, armbar, clutch, grab and throw their chests into ball handlers, cutters and shooters to impede or otherwise foul the &$%# out of people. Scoring is way down, and the advantage goes to the most physical and abusive defensive teams. If your team can guard people and is physical, your team has a chance. If your team is skilled and plays pretty, it might not be around for long.
That stated, we have some very good teams that have proved their mettle by consistency rather than power. Records at the top of the heap are not different this season as compared to most, but how those records have been compiled is quite different. There are more teams that can lose to a team from the pile of unwashed, which is not the norm. Everybody is capable of losing. But don't buy into this "anybody can win" nonsense. If anybody could win, they would win. They cannot. An outstanding team can lose, but a team that is not outstanding cannot win multiple games in the NCAA tournament (unless several outstanding teams fall down in its path).
As we approach the NCAA tournament, which funds the NCAA's lobbying efforts, i.e., spending hundreds of thousands of dollars annually to keep from sharing any money with the players, The Bilas Index will put teams into tiers, which will reflect capabilities and ceilings. While The Bilastrator understands that wagering is an American staple and a major reason the NCAA tournament is so popular, The Bilastrator urges you to use this valuable information for good rather than evil. Enjoy The Bilas Index, and, as always, you're welcome.
Tier 1: National title favorites
1. Baylor Bears
The No. 1 Bears have proved to be an outstanding defensive team with excellent guard play. The Baylor offense might give some pause as to invincibility and a destination of the Final Four, but perhaps the best attribute of this team is the toughness necessary to find ways to win when scoring is not easy. That will serve Scott Drew's team well in postseason play.
Few can match the inside-outside combo of Devon Dotson and Udoka Azubuike, arguably the best point guard and the best low-post big man in the Big 12 and perhaps the nation. Kansas is one of the nation's best defensive teams, protecting the lane and the rim without fouling. To win it all, the Jayhawks need more consistent production outside of Dotson and Azubuike, specifically Ochai Agbaji, who can be a star-caliber player. If Agbaji can blossom even more in the final month of the season, Kansas can cut nets down.
How does Mark Few continue to do this? Gonzaga has only one loss, scores at will, and has a ridiculous combo of big men in Filip Petrusev and Killian Tillie. Ryan Woolridge is one of the most underrated guards in America, and Corey Kispert is one of the best open shooters in the country. The only thing that limits Bulldogs is the vulnerability to a physical, clutch-and-grab defensive team that will be allowed to foul the bejesus out of Gonzaga while three whistles are swallowed. And they will be.
The more you watch the Cards play, the better you should like their chances in March. David Johnson makes a huge difference in this team because he is so dynamic at the point. What was thought to be a weakness is becoming a strength. Louisville checks every box: coaching, guards, big men protecting the lane and a star in Jordan Nwora (ranked in the ACC's top 10 in scoring, rebounding and field goal percentage.)
Tre Jones was renamed "Tre Stones" after his mind-blowing second-half and overtime performance at North Carolina. By the way, Duke-Carolina always delivers. Jones was the first player to put up 28 points, 5 assists and 5 rebounds in this rivalry since Michael Jordan did it in 1983, and no player will ever duplicate the "bullet off the rim and chase it down" play to send the game to overtime. Stones, indeed. Duke is far from perfect, but close enough that it can reach Atlanta and win there. With Wendell Moore Jr. back and healthy, Duke has five athletes and handlers it can use at the same time, and that will serve the Blue Devils well.
This is the best San Diego State team since Kawhi Leonard was there, and even better. Why? Because the Aztecs defend almost as well but score far better from more spots on the floor. Don't be fooled by the lack of exposure; San Diego State can play, and can beat anyone. Anyone.
Obi Toppin is the best player in the country and an NBA lottery pick. Watch Toppin run the floor and establish position early (around the foul line). It is a nightmare to contain. Yet Dayton is much more than Toppin. Anthony Grant plays two legit point guards in Jalen Crutcher and Rodney Chatman, has three "complementary stars" in Ibi Watson, Ryan Mikesell and Trey Landers, and the Flyers lead the nation in 2-point field goal percentage. Does anyone ever say, "Live by the 2, die by the 2?" No.
The Seminoles have an impressive array of long, athletic and tough defenders who absolutely choke off anything you want to run on the offensive end. Where Leonard Hamilton gets all of these unselfish, unquestioning, relentless workers is anybody's guess. But his depth and defensive mindset are the difference between "good" and "good enough to reach the Final Four." Plus, Devin Vassell and Trent Forrest are winning guards who play both ends of the floor. Florida State can go quiet on the offensive end at times, but defense will keep the Seminoles in any game.
If Obi Toppin is not the best player in the country, then Myles Powell is. Despite an off night against Creighton on Wednesday, the senior is the most dangerous weapon with the ball in his hands in the country, and he has weapons around him, too. Having Sandro Mamukelashvili back and healthy means Seton Hall can reach a Final Four for the first time since P.J. Carlesimo was roaming the sideline in a sweater vest.
The Terps are quietly getting better. Like Kansas, Maryland has an inside-outside combo that is tough to match. Jalen Smith is the inside (although he can step out and nail a 3) and Anthony Cowan Jr. is the outside, and Cowan will go down as one of Maryland's all-time most productive players and winners. The Terrapins have toughened up and played grittier defense, but still have not shot the ball the way they are capable of. Aaron Wiggins, Eric Ayala and Darryl Morsell are all better shooters than this season's numbers indicate. The metrics tell you what Maryland has done but not what Maryland is capable of, and the Terps are capable of far better.
Tier 2: Elite Eight possibles
11. Auburn Tigers
Tigers are cats, and these cats definitely have nine lives. Auburn was dead in the water against LSU, but J'Von McCormick put on one of the best clutch performances of the season, nearly putting up a triple-double in the overtime win. Bruce Pearl has been a very sweaty Houdini this season, and he has a bunch of fighting believers on his roster. Isaac Okoro is the best freshman you've not heard enough about, and the only thing that will derail Auburn is shooting (from the field and the foul line). The Tigers put their heads down and attack the basket, then gang-rebound the miss until they make it and wear you down.
Lamar Stevens has been a gem for the Nittany Lions program and should have his number retired in Happy Valley. If he stays healthy, Stevens will be the leading career scorer at Penn State, and he has led a resurgence of the program to challenging for the Big Ten title. That does not happen overnight. Stevens stayed to see it through, and he is leading a team that can beat almost anybody. It is a great story.
If we're drafting a list of the nation's best point guards, Collin Gillespie has to be on it. If we're drafting a list of the nation's best and most complete players, Saddiq Bey has to be on it. If we're drafting a list of the best offensive teams in the country -- from scheme and execution -- Villanova has to be on it. If we're drafting a list of the best defensive teams in the country, well, that is the lone area where Villanova fails to stand out. There is no question that the Wildcats can score enough points to reach the second weekend of the NCAA tournament. But when not shooting well, or getting manhandled when officials allow that, can Villanova get enough stops to win anyway? So far, it doesn't seem so.
The Cats have guards who can play with anyone, and a big man in Nick Richards who is as good as any big man in the nation. But does Kentucky have the wings and other scorers to add to the talents of Tyrese Maxey, Immanuel Quickley and Ashton Hagans? Kentucky needs to have the complementary players be more consistent in their roles. There is still time to establish that.
15. Oregon Ducks
The perimeter is terrific; the interior is capable but not consistent on either end of the floor. Yet, as long as Payton Pritchard wears green, don't count out Oregon. That dude is a baller, and a winner.
16. LSU Tigers
The Tigers have three players who can go get you a bucket whenever you need one, which very few teams have. Skylar Mays, Javonte Smart and Trendon Watford can create on their own, and Watford, Emmitt Williams and Darius Days can go get the ball off the glass and finish plays. LSU is not as efficient as a contender needs to be, but it is as talented as anyone.
17. Butler Bulldogs
If you didn't see the Butler-Villanova game in which a red bucket was the most important technological development since the breakaway rim, you missed one of the best games of the season. Butler does not have size or interior strength, but as long as Sean McDermott and Kamar Baldwin are hunting shots and aggressive, the Bulldogs have a chance. The Elite Eight is generous for Butler, but it's possible.
The Illini are not the pressing, scrambling team of last season but are a far better team because they have size, toughness and a terrific playmaker in Ayo Dosunmu, whose status is uncertain after a scary fall on Tuesday night. The only other issue? Consistent perimeter shooting. The Illini shoot barely 30% from deep, but they chase down and secure their own misses with the best in the business.
The Red Raiders are younger and not quite as good, but this is starting to look a little bit like last season for Texas Tech. With Jahmi'us Ramsey healthy and in the lineup, Chris Beard has a star performer and a lottery pick. Tech defends and plays ridiculously hard, and the young Raiders are getting better and better.
The Bilastrator is not giving up on Michigan State. Losses count, and Michigan State is losing games. But while the Spartans do not have the same offensive firepower of last season and are not the team expected before Big Ten play began, there are enough pieces there to perform in the NCAA tournament. Unlikely? If the Spartans stand pat, yes. But, if Sparty improves down the stretch, there is no reason this would not be a second-weekend team with a shot at more.
Tier 3: Sweet 16 contenders
21. West Virginia Mountaineers
Bob Huggins' Mountaineers were not able to get past Kansas on Wednesday, but this program is well coached, has regained its swagger and is going to be a really tough out until further notice. Derek Culver (6-foot-10, 255 pounds) and Oscar Tshiebwe (6-foot-9, 258 pounds) are a big part of the reason WVU ranks No. 1 in the nation in offensive rebound percentage.
The Bluejays' big win at Seton Hall on Wednesday night did not surprise The Bilastrator -- this team proved it was dangerous as early as November, when it took down Texas Tech in Las Vegas. Greg McDermott's group is one of the most efficient teams in the country offensively. Marcus Zegarowski -- who scored 18 points, had eight assists and helped limit Seton Hall's Myles Powell to 3-of-16 shooting -- powers a team that loves to play fast.
23. Iowa Hawkeyes
You've heard a lot about big man Luka Garza (23.1 PPG, 9.9 RPG) this season, and rightly so, but this Hawkeyes team has some other weapons to recommend it. The Bilastrator really likes Joe Wieskamp (15.4 PPG, 6.1 RPG) on the wing -- he and freshman guard CJ Fredrick (11.2 PPG) have combined to sink 90 3s for Fran McCaffery's team.
OSU's troubling 1-6 stretch is a thing of the past. The Buckeyes are 4-1 since then, with Wednesday's 72-66 victory over Rutgers offering evidence of a team ascending toward March. Kaleb Wesson is a load at 6-foot-9, 270 pounds, and he can also step out beyond the arc -- he was 3-for-3 on 3s in the win over the Scarlet Knights.
The Rutgers rejuvenation has been one of college basketball's best stories this season, and the next step for Steve Pikiell's emerging program is figuring out how to win outside of Piscataway, New Jersey. The Scarlet Knights are 16-0 at the Rutgers Athletic Center this season and 1-8 away from the RAC, with the only win coming at Nebraska. Winning in March means neutral sites, so that's an issue Pikiell is going to have to resolve.
26. Arizona Wildcats
Sean Miller's Wildcats have demonstrated some of the inconsistency you'd expect from a really young team -- a home loss to UCLA the most recent evidence -- but this group is extremely talented and you should not be surprised to see the Wildcats peak at the right time. You won't find a better freshman trio than Nico Mannion (14.0 PPG, 5.5 APG), Josh Green (11.9 PPG, 4.5 RPG) and Zeke Nnaji (16.2 PPG, 8.9 RPG).
27. Houston Cougars
This season's edition of the Cougars does not have past stars like Corey Davis or Rob Gray, but Kelvin Sampson's squad is tough and does a lot of little things well. Nate Hinton is a regular double-double candidate for a team that is top five in the country on the offensive glass, and Kansas transfer guard Quentin Grimes is capable but will need to be more consistent in March.
28. BYU Cougars
The Cougars are senior-dominated, and that's always a difficult proposition for opponents in March. With Yoeli Childs (21.9 PPG, 8.7 RPG) up front and TJ Haws (13.8 PPG, 5.3 APG) and Jake Toolson (15.8 PPG, 4.3 APG) in the backcourt, the Cougars are going to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2015 and have a good chance to do some damage once they get there.
The Wolverines followed a hot start with something of a January lull, losing four in a row at one stretch before recovering to go 4-1 in their past five games. Juwan Howard's squad is not without its flaws, but it takes the floor with five double-digit scorers and is not going to quit as long as senior leader Zavier Simpson is in the lineup.
The Gaels simply didn't defend well enough in their annual home date with Gonzaga last Saturday, allowing the Zags to make 28 of 38 (73.7%) 2s and 8 of 15 (53.3%) 3s. That's not going to work, and it's unlikely to happen again. Jordan Ford (21.1 PPG) & Co. will get another crack at the Bulldogs in Spokane, Washington, on Feb. 29.
The Buffs are alone at the top of the Pac-12 standings as play begins Thursday, and that's no accident. The junior combo of Tyler Bey (13.6 PPG, 9.1 RPG) and McKinley Wright IV (13.8 PPG, 5.2 APG) is as fine a tandem as you'll find in this league and is a big reason Tad Boyle's squad is shooting a Pac-12-best 52.3% on 2-point field goals during league play.
The nation's leading scorer, Markus Howard, is going to be the focal point for every opponent Marquette faces this season, which is why the Golden Eagles are likely to go as far as their secondary options will take them. Sacar Anim, Koby McEwen and Brendan Bailey have all had their moments in the sidekick role this season, and one (or all) is going to have to step up when it matters.
Stanford ranked as one of the surprising teams in college basketball through mid-January, but a 15-2 start has yielded to a 1-5 slide and a scary injury suffered by top Cardinal player Oscar da Silva (15.9 PPG, 6.3 RPG) against Colorado on Saturday. Da Silva is going to be OK, and The Bilastrator thinks Stanford will be, too. Its 37.8% mark from 3-point range has been the best in the Pac-12 during conference play.
Tier 4: Somebody might do it, but everybody here had better get better
At 22-3 after Wednesday night's win over Illinois State, UNI is atop the Missouri Valley Conference and not going anywhere anytime soon. Sophomore guard AJ Green is a candidate to go for 20-plus every time he hits the floor, and has combined for 61 points (including 11-of-18 from 3) in the Panthers' two most recent victories.
35. Indiana Hoosiers
The Hoosiers carry a four-game losing streak into Thursday's matchup with Iowa in Bloomington, shades of the seven-game slide that helped damage IU's NCAA tournament chances last season. Trayce Jackson-Davis (13.9 PPG, 7.7 RPG) is having a nice freshman year for the Hoosiers, but a team that ranks last in Big Ten play in turnover percentage (19.5) must take better care of the basketball.
The Golden Gophers have some impressive wins, including a home-and-home sweep of Ohio State and victories over Penn State, Michigan and Wisconsin. But at 12-11, Richard Pitino's group can't really afford a bad week, which is why an upcoming two-game homestand against Iowa and Indiana is going to be important. Daniel Oturu (20.1 PPG, 11.5 RPG) is a truly special player.
37. Mississippi State Bulldogs
The schedule sets up nicely for a Mississippi State team that has a big matchup problem in Reggie Perry (17.7 PPG, 9.9 RPG) in the middle. Also serving Ben Howland's team well: The Bulldogs make free throws. They are 79.9% from the line in SEC play, and that figures to matter in the close games this team is likely to encounter down the stretch.
The Crimson Tide have been right there with a number of top opponents this season, but have had trouble closing. This issue came up again in Wednesday's 95-91 overtime loss to Auburn, which was the fourth loss in five games for Nate Oats' team and denied Alabama the home-and-home sweep of its rival. The Tide like to play fast and beat you with their guards -- Jaden Shackelford and John Petty combined for 48 points in the Auburn loss, and Kira Lewis had 13 assists.
The Atlantic 10 has been Dayton's show this season, but there's a lot to like about a Rhode Island team that saw a 10-game win streak snapped by the Flyers on Tuesday night. Philly native Fatts Russell (20.3 PPG, 4.5 APG) is the league's best player not named Obi Toppin, and will be playing in the NCAA tournament for the second time in his career.
The Shockers are in the midst of a rut where they've lost five of seven games, but an upcoming stretch against UCF, Tulane and South Florida should help build some confidence for the stretch run. Gregg Marshall's group just simply needs to shoot the ball better. During conference play, the Shockers are last in the American Athletic Conference on both 2s (42.7%) and 3s (28.0%). But The Bilastrator says that 15-1 start was not a mirage, and that Wichita will find itself.
John Brannen's Bearcats saw a five-game winning streak snapped in overtime at UConn on Sunday, but this team is also recently removed from back-to-back victories over Houston and Wichita State, and is headed in the right direction. Jarron Cumberland (15.1 PPG, 4.6 APG) has been simply terrific since conference play began in the AAC, and Cincinnati can also beat you up on the interior.
After some early-January stumbles, the Aggies are healthy again and could have a major head of steam once March arrives. The trio of Sam Merrill (18.4 PPG) on the wing and Neemias Queta (12.4 PPG, 6.8 RPG) and Justin Bean (12.2 PPG, 10.2 RPG) on the interior is going to give Craig Smith's group a chance to win every game it plays -- including a potential date with a likely unbeaten San Diego State team in the Mountain West tourney.
A 2-6 stretch of basketball has cast doubt on the Razorbacks' chances of getting to the NCAA tournament in coach Eric Musselman's first season. There are still a couple of things to recommend the Razorbacks down the stretch, however. One is a 3-point defense that ranks No. 1 in the country (opponents are shooting just 25% from distance). The other is Mason Jones (20 PPG, 6 RPG), who has hit a mini-slump but figures to turn it back on sooner rather than later.
The Badgers (14-10) haven't won or lost more than two straight since December, but have some solid victories over the likes of Michigan State and Ohio State over that stretch. The big problems for Greg Gard's squad? It hasn't won away from Madison in over a month, and it hasn't developed a consistent No. 2 scoring option behind 6-foot-11 forward Nate Reuvers (13.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG).
45. VCU Rams
The Rams lack a truly signature win since they took down LSU back in November, but will have a chance to make some noise in the coming weeks thanks to an extremely veteran group. The current core of Marcus Evans, De'Riante Jenkins, Issac Vann, Mike'L Simms and Marcus Santos-Silva were all there when VCU lost to UCF in the NCAA tournament last season, and is hungry to get back.
This is not a vintage Matt Painter team but has some really impressive victories (a 29-point win over Michigan State and 36-point win over Iowa among them), and The Bilastrator appreciates its ability to hang in there in a rugged Big Ten. The Boilermakers' willingness to hit the offensive glass -- No. 1 in Big Ten conference games and top 20 in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage -- is a characteristic that will serve them well in March.
47. Syracuse Orange
The Orange have hit a troubling stretch with three losses in their past four games, but Jim Boeheim & Co. still have a really good chance to finish in the ACC's top four. Having Elijah Hughes back and healthy would be a great start -- Hughes missed all but three minutes of Tuesday's loss to NC State with a groin injury, but is expected to be OK long term.
The Fighting Irish missed a chance to run their winning streak to five games in a gut-wrenching 50-49 overtime loss at Virginia on Tuesday night, but all is not lost in South Bend, Indiana. The schedule sets up favorably beyond Saturday's trip to Duke, and any team with John Mooney (16.3 PPG, 13.0 RPG) on it is going to have a chance to reel off some wins.
49. Oklahoma Sooners
The Sooners find themselves in the top half of a good Big 12, and Saturday's decisive win over West Virginia was a good indication of what OU can do when things are going according to plan. Kristian Doolittle logged 27 points and 12 rebounds in that game and appears intent on finishing out a great four-year career in Norman on a high note.
50. Florida Gators
The Gators have been disappointing, but expectations might have been too high for a group that -- even with Kerry Blackshear Jr. in the fold -- is one of the youngest teams in the country. If key backcourt freshmen Tre Mann and Scottie Lewis can elevate their games over the final few weeks of the regular season, Mike White's crew could begin to deliver on that preseason promise.
The Musketeers received an apparent wake-up call in a double-overtime home loss to Marquette on Jan. 29, a game the Golden Eagles won despite being without Markus Howard for the latter stages. Since then, Travis Steele's team has gone 3-1, including a road win at Seton Hall that looked more like what The Bilastrator expected at the beginning of this season. A team led by Naji Marshall and Tyrique Jones ought to win more than it loses the rest of the way.
Last time we saw the Cavs, they scored 50 points against Notre Dame ... in overtime ... and won. Mamadi Diakite (13.6 PPG, 6.7 RPG) scored 20 of those points. It's no secret that Tony Bennett's group is challenged offensively -- 28.5% from 3 is one of the worst numbers in the country -- but Virginia is going to be in every game, and win a bunch, because its defense and rebounding is a given.
53. East Tennessee State Buccaneers
ETSU already owns an impressive and decisive victory over LSU earlier this season, and looks like the team to beat in a strong-at-the-top Southern Conference. Bo Hodges (13.4 PPG, 5.9 RPG) has been really good for the Buccaneers, but Steve Forbes' group might benefit most if it can get top rebounder Jeromy Rodriguez back from a foot injury that has kept him out of the past 10 games.
54. Yale Bulldogs
Yale got The Bilastrator's attention with an 11-point road win at Clemson early this season, and tight losses at Penn State and North Carolina are a good indication of what this program can do. Most significant, the Bulldogs shoot it well from range, connecting on 42.1% of their 3s in Ivy League play. Junior Azar Swain has connected on a team-high 68 shots from beyond the arc.
55. Memphis Tigers
Division I's youngest team has played like it at times, with a turnover percentage that ranks near the bottom of the country a telltale sign of where this team needs to grow. But Penny Hardaway & Co. still have games against Houston (twice), Cincinnati and Wichita State in which they'll have golden opportunities to improve and impress The Bilastrator.
56. USC Trojans
The Trojans are carrying a three-game losing streak into Thursday's game against Washington but remain talented enough to get better when it matters. Onyeka Okongwu (16.4 PPG, 8.9 RPG) has been among the country's most impressive freshmen and is a consistent problem on the interior at 6-foot-9, 245 pounds.
57. Georgetown Hoyas
Some people wrote off the Hoyas after James Akinjo left the program seven games into the season, but not The Bilastrator. In fact, without both Akinjo and star guard Mac McClung (foot), Patrick Ewing coached this team to a key victory over DePaul on Saturday. Jahvon Blair's 30 points was a big reason, and Blair is among those who will have to remain consistent for Georgetown to keep winning.
Bobby Hurley & Co. have turned it up a notch during the Pac-12 season, winning five of their past six to increase the chances of a third consecutive trip to the NCAA tournament. When Remy Martin (19.3 PPG, 4.0 APG) has it going for a team that likes to play fast, the Sun Devils are as dangerous as any team in this league.
The Bulldogs have a fighting chance to reach what would be the program's first NCAA tournament since 1991, but will have tough competition in Conference USA from North Texas and Western Kentucky, in particular. Eric Konkol's well-coached group has been C-USA's most efficient team defensively, and senior guard DaQuan Bracey (12.6 PPG, 3.0 APG) has been a catalyst.
The Wolfpack's back-to-back road wins at Miami and Syracuse offered some much-needed momentum, especially going into a concluding stretch of games that includes Duke (twice), Florida State and a North Carolina team that beat the Pack by 10 in Raleigh without Cole Anthony. Seniors Markell Johnson (13.0 PPG, 6.7 APG) and C.J. Bryce (14.0 PPG, 5.3 RPG) are going to have to find an extra gear if Kevin Keatts' squad is going to reach the NCAA tournament.
At 2-9 in the Pac-12 entering Thursday night's meeting at USC, the very young but very talented Huskies are running out of time to turn the corner. But again, the only team in college basketball to defeat Baylor this season is mega-talented, with freshman duo Isaiah Stewart (17.4 PPG, 8.7 RPG) and Jaden McDaniels (12.4 PPG, 5.9 RPG) forming a front line that will give you fits.
The Vols have struggled with injuries this season, as guard Lamonte Turner is out for the year with a shoulder problem and freshman guard Josiah-Jordan James has missed four games due to a groin injury. But Rick Barnes' group is always dangerous because it's tough defensively, and has also gotten a big lift of late from freshman guard Santiago Vescovi (38 points and 10 assists in his past two games).
63. Richmond Spiders
The Spiders hung in there during a six-game stretch without guard Blake Francis, a transfer from Wagner who was out with a fractured sternum. Chris Mooney's crew has a chance with Francis back in the lineup, and because it does little things well like take care of the basketball and convert from the free throw line (top 10 nationally in both areas).
Ed Cooley's group has had its highs (road wins over Marquette and Butler and a home blowout of Creighton) and lows (losses to Long Beach State, Charleston and Penn), but what's consistent about the Friars is they'll make you work for everything you get. Senior guard Alpha Diallo (12.9 PPG, 7.7 RPG) is a major handful at 6-foot-7.
65. Liberty Flames
Ritchie McKay's team isn't as hot now as it was during a 14-0 start -- the Flames lost to both North Florida and Stetson in a three-day span last month -- but this is still the odds-on favorite to represent the Atlantic Sun in the NCAA tournament. Liberty will slow you down -- its 21.2-second average possession length is the slowest in Division I, per KenPom -- and makes life extra difficult by shooting it well inside the arc (55.8%).
John Becker's Catamounts are on track to represent the America East in the NCAA tournament for the third time in the past four years. Once they get there, it will be all about 6-foot-6, 227-pound senior forward Anthony Lamb. Lamb leads Vermont in scoring, rebounds and blocks, and shoots it well from the floor and at the line.
67. Furman Paladins
Bob Richey's Paladins shoot the ball very well -- they are top 10 in all of Division I in both effective field goal percentage and 2-point field goals. Top scorer Jordan Lyons recently became the winningest player in school history and is the face of this team's effort to deliver Furman to its first NCAA tournament since 1980. This squad has a great chance to get there.
Isaiah Miller is one of the best guards in the country, and will be a problem for anyone the Spartans face in March. UNCG has quality wins over Georgetown and Vermont, and will join East Tennessee State and Furman as teams to beat in what will be a very strong Southern Conference tournament.
Jennifer Hudson to pay tribute to Kobe at ASG
CHICAGO -- Jennifer Hudson is coming to the All-Star Game to pay tribute to Kobe Bryant with her voice.
The NBA has released a list of entertainers headed to All-Star Weekend, the group headlined by Hudson -- the two-time Grammy winner and Oscar winner -- who, just before Sunday night's player introductions, will perform a special tribute to Bryant, his daughter Gianna and the seven other victims of the helicopter crash that took their lives in Southern California on Jan. 26.
Other additions the NBA revealed Thursday: DJ Khaled, Quavo and Lil Wayne will join the previously announced Grammy winner and Chicago native Chance the Rapper during Sunday night's halftime show; Queen Latifah will be joined by Chicago youth to perform Stevie Wonder's "Love's in Need of Love Today" during Saturday's events; and the Chicago Children's Choir will sing "The Star-Spangled Banner" before the Rising Stars game on Friday night.
And Damian Lillard still may perform -- even though injury will keep him from taking the court.
The Portland guard was to play in Sunday's All-Star Game and participate in All-Star Saturday Night events as a competitor in the 3-point contest. But he injured his groin in the Trail Blazers' final game before the break on Wednesday night, and that will keep him off the court.
Lillard, however, is going to be in Chicago and hasn't ruled out being onstage on Saturday night. The five-time All-Star is a popular rapper -- he raps under the name Dame D.O.L.L.A. -- and the NBA is hoping he performs.
His plan is to be joined by Jeremih and Lil Wayne.
"We just kind of started going over what we could do to make it count, tried to figure out Chicago artists who could be part of it," Lillard said. "Jeremih is going to be on stage with me and he's from Chicago, he's on one of my biggest songs on my current album. And then also, I'm going to be doing a song on my previous album and that's one of my biggest songs with Lil Wayne, too, so it's going to be a pretty good deal."
Lillard's rise in music did not come easily. Even though he had fame through being an All-Star player, he still had to pay his dues as a performer. He worked his way up through Instagram and SoundCloud, building a fan base and building respect within the rap community. And now he has three albums to his credit, plus enough credibility that big names want to work with him.
"I think the No. 1 thing that people see is the route that I've taken in my music," Lillard said. "I didn't just jump in and say 'Listen to my music because I'm an NBA player.' I took the route that any other aspiring artist would take, and I think that shows that I took it seriously, that I have real passion for the music and for hip-hop."
Several other All-Star Weekend performers were previously announced: three-time Grammy winner and Chicago native Common, Chance's brother Taylor Bennett, Chaka Khan (who will sing the U.S. national anthem Sunday before the All-Star Game) and country star Tenille Arts (who will sing the Canadian national anthem).
Common's role will be to welcome fans to Chicago with a narrative about what basketball means to the city, that part to come before the teams are introduced Sunday.
Lowe: Bam Adebayo is the fiercest, best NBA player you don't know
TOWARD THE END of Bam Adebayo's freshman year at Northside High School in tiny Pinetown in eastern North Carolina, two teachers, a coach, and a mother gathered in the coach's classroom to discuss how they would wrap their arms around the mother's son -- a raw basketball prodigy already bordering on 6-foot-8.
"God gave Bam this talent," the mother told the group, "and he can take it away -- today. Not tomorrow. Today. Don't take things for granted."
Adebayo was a good kid, and a good student, but Marilyn Blount, his mother, was not the type to leave anything to chance. She was raising Bam alone in a single-wide trailer home; the boy's father, John, separated from the family when Adebayo was young.
Blount rose every day at 5:45 and cooked Bam a hot breakfast as he slept. After Bam left for school, Blount walked to the Acre Station Meat Farm, where she took home about $12,000 per year as a cashier. When her son came home from basketball practice, she was already asleep.
She didn't drive. She needed coaches and friends to take her son where he needed to go, and make sure he avoided places she didn't want him to go. She asked teachers to tutor Bam, to guarantee he would be academically eligible for college.
What the adults in that meeting might not have known was that Adebayo had been watching his mother with fresh eyes. "When I was younger, it's like, 'Mom works. Normal adult stuff,'" Adebayo says. "But you mature and start to look at it differently. I watched my mom struggle. She comes home tired. She doesn't want to do anything. As I got older, I started thinking, 'My mom doesn't deserve this.' My whole devotion became to get my mom out of that trailer."
Adebayo earned good grades. His mother didn't need to call the school's principal, Charles Clark, and request he summon Adebayo for periodic talking-tos.
"Talk stern to him," she told Clark.
"I would say, 'About what? 'He's one of our best kids!'" Clark recalls.
Adebayo verbalized his dreams for his mother to teammates, coaches, carpool drivers. He chose Kentucky because of John Calipari's record of getting prospects to NBA riches fast. Calipari met Blount at the Meat Farm during one recruiting visit.
"I said to myself, 'We gotta make this work because this woman deserves it,'" Calipari remembers.
At Kentucky, Adebayo installed a photo of his mother's trailer as the background on his phone. At times with the Miami Heat, he has hung that photo in his locker and written the street address on game shoes.
Pat Riley was struck by Adebayo's seriousness of purpose -- how he talked about his mother -- during pre-draft interviews. "He was," Riley says, "already a grown-ass man."
"He has such a beautiful relationship with his mom," says Erik Spoelstra, Miami's coach. "I want to do right by him, and by her. I don't want to mess this up."
Adebayo is heading to his first All-Star Game. He is in line for a huge contract once his rookie deal expires. He has reoriented Miami's present and future. "He's the Zo [Alonzo Mourning]," Riley says. "He's the UD [Udonis Haslem]. He's the Dwyane [Wade]. They were standard-bearers. Bam is that person. He is the real deal."
Adebayo rents an apartment on the 48th floor of a high-rise in downtown Miami; Marilyn lives on the fifth. Adebayo drives her home from games. He bought her a Bichon Frise -- Zeus -- though he walks it so often, she jokes he really bought it for himself.
Blount keeps one of her old weekly pay stubs from the Meat Farm -- $240 -- as a reminder of where their journey started. She purchased some nicer jeans to wear to games. Adebayo pushes her to treat herself.
"You're used to holding onto money, to being scared," Blount says. "I still want to take that money and dress my baby, make sure my baby has money when he goes on the road. Sometimes, I sit here and I just cry. I look at my surroundings, and I don't even believe it's true."
CALIPARI WAS STRAIGHT with Adebayo: He would not shoot jumpers or bring the ball up -- skills that had blossomed over Adebayo's high school career. He would set screens, roll hard, play defense.
"John didn't let him do anything," Riley chuckles.
Adebayo worked on other skills after practices and in night sessions with Kenny Payne, a Kentucky assistant. "He wanted to be a guard so badly," De'Aaron Fox, Adebayo's teammate at Kentucky, says with a laugh. "He also went to every class -- a lot more than I did."
Adebayo's speed and fundamentals on defense leapt out in games. He trusted Calipari, trusted scouts would see his ball skills in practice and grab intel from Payne.
"He would say, 'My mom will no longer live like this,'" Payne says.
Adebayo won over some executives at the draft combine with his single-minded focus. He had a line ready when teams asked about off-court interests: "I play basketball, hang out with my mom, and take s----." Some executives cackled at Adebayo's deadpan delivery.
Even so, he slid down some draft boards. "The doubt was whether he could really do much on offense," says Chet Kammerer, Miami's senior advisor of basketball operations. That criticism got back to Kentucky's coaches.
"Take your pretty jump-shooting bigs, and give me Bam," Payne would tell NBA executives. "Give me the guy who will do anything to win -- the guy who will block a shot at a critical moment, or switch onto a guard and shut him down."
The Heat tested Adebayo when they hosted him for a pre-draft workout. They put him through a "hands" drill in which a half-dozen staffers circled Adebayo, and chucked basketballs at him in random patterns. He caught every one.
One Heat official asked Adebayo what percentage of corner 3s he could hit in practice. Adebayo answered with bravado: 60%. Prove it, they said. Adebayo hit 31-of-50 -- 62%.
"He's the Zo [Mourning]. He's the UD [Udonis Haslem]. He's the Dwyane [Wade]. They were standard-bearers. Bam is that person. He is the real deal." Pat Riley
They ran Adebayo ragged: block-to-block sprints culminating in an attempt to reject a shot at the rim; lane agility tests; footwork drills. After an hour, with exhaustion setting in, Heat officials began the drill they were really there to see. They asked Adebayo to switch onto perimeter players, including Justin Jackson, another prospect in attendance, and stay in front of them.
Adebayo turned to Heat brass, including Riley and Spoelstra, and shouted: "Oh, you got me f---ing confused! You got me f---ed up!" Translation: Don't you know who I am? As the stops -- "kills" in Heat parlance -- piled up, the trash talk flowed. "Oh, it was explicit," Adebayo says. It was not friendly taunting. Adebayo was not smiling.
"We were like, 'Is this guy kinda crazy?'" Spoelstra says.
Juwan Howard, then a Miami assistant, locked eyes with Dan Craig, the coach running the drill. "Our eyes got wide," Howard says. "We said, 'This is a Heat guy.' To have the balls to say that in front of Pat Riley -- to say, 'You're not going to pick on me!' -- that's a Heat guy."
"I'm lucky they like guys with edge," Adebayo says.
Adebayo's agents had cautioned him against overreacting to mistakes in pre-draft workouts. "If I miss two shots in a row, I might kick the ball across the floor," Adebayo says. "I was not gonna do that in front of Pat Riley, but behind closed doors, it's 'm-----f----- this and m-----f----- that.'"
IF THERE WAS something that was hard to project -- something evaluators missed -- it was Adebayo's ability to channel that almost violent competitive rage into healthy directions: toward self-actualization and winning, never greed.
When Team USA cut him before last summer's FIBA World Basketball Cup, Adebayo warned those close to him: They will pay. "They" included Gregg Popovich, Team USA's coach, and every player who made the team. "When I see them, I remember," Adebayo says. "I could have helped."
Adebayo's friends smiled when he fooled Myles Turner -- a center who made Team USA -- with a fake handoff on Jan. 8 against Indiana, and dunked. "He caught Turner standing like a giraffe," says Kevin Graves, Adebayo's AAU coach and one of the people Adebayo credits with teaching him fundamentals -- low dribbles, a wide defensive stance.
Team USA cut Adebayo after a scrimmage on Aug. 9 in Las Vegas. He took a red-eye to Miami. The next day, Kammerer glanced out his office window and was stunned to see Adebayo in the gym.
In those summer workouts, Chris Quinn, another Heat assistant, came up with a "two outbursts" rule. Adebayo got one ball-booting tantrum. The second came with a price: sprinting baseline to baseline and back.
Payne is an expert at stoking that fury. When the Heat were in Minneapolis to play the Timberwolves last April ahead of the Final Four there, Payne organized a dinner with Calipari, Adebayo and Karl-Anthony Towns -- another Kentucky alum -- the night before the game. "Take it easy on my baby Bam," Payne told Towns in front of the group. "Don't embarrass him."
"It's on his coaches to send double-teams," Towns replied.
"I could feel Bam's leg shaking under the table," Payne says.
At Miami's walkthrough the next morning, Spoelstra rehearsed coverages for Towns -- including double-teams. "F-- that, Spo," Adebayo yelled. "We ain't doubling."
"It was, 'OK, I guess we're not doubling,'" Spoelstra says.
Towns finished with 13 points and 11 turnovers, the most of his career. Adebayo swiped four steals, and coaxed Towns into a traveling violation and an offensive foul. "I took it personally," Adebayo says. He texted Payne after the game, Payne says: "You think he respects me more now?"
ADEBAYO'S ADDICTION TO defense -- to breaking his opponent's will -- shined in pre-draft workouts. One scout for the New York Knicks, who held the No. 8 pick, worked with Adebayo's agent, Alex Saratsis, to schedule New York for Adebayo's first workout, Saratsis says. Adebayo left without any hint of New York's interest level. (They selected Frank Ntilikina.)
In Detroit, the big-man prospect scheduled to work out against Adebayo canceled. The Pistons rushed Aaron Gray, then an assistant coach, into a 3-on-3 game to guard Adebayo.
"He was talking so much garbage," Gray says. You're too old. Oh, you thought I could only dunk?
The other prospects there were borderline second-rounders. Adebayo screened hard for them, rolled hard, hit them with pinpoint passes. During breaks, he chatted them up. "A lot of prospects, if you're not in their range, they barely talk to you," Gray says. "Bam loved being around those guys."
He has been wired that way as long as anyone remembers. At Northside, Adebayo invited team managers into scrimmages. When one deep reserve finally got into a game, Adebayo crashed the offensive glass and kicked the ball to him every chance, says Gerald Klas, a Northside assistant.
"It wasn't fun for everyone to watch me get triple-teamed," Adebayo says.
In search of better competition, Adebayo transferred for his senior year to High Point Christian Academy, a private basketball powerhouse near Greensboro, North Carolina -- four hours from home. The team was loaded with Division I prospects, but beset by infighting.
On one pregame drive to Subway, he asked a teammate, De'Shaun Taylor, about Taylor's experience on High Point's state championship football team -- about off-court habits and camaraderie, and whether chemistry drove winning.
"He caught me off guard," Taylor says. "He was going to Kentucky already. High Point had no more bearing on his life. He probably doesn't even remember that conversation, but it stuck with me."
Adebayo lived that year with Graves, his AAU coach, in Greensboro. Adebayo and Graves' son, Ty, drove 25 minutes to school every day for 6 a.m. workouts.
"He has such a beautiful relationship with his mom. I want to do right by him, and by her. I don't want to mess this up." Erik Spoelstra
Adebayo tried to mimic Hakeem Olajuwon's footwork. He loved passing. "He probably threw more lobs than teammates threw him," says Brandon Clifford, High Point's coach that season.
The Heat heard stories like these. They saw Adebayo's combine testing results, marking him as one of the most athletic bigs in recent draft history. They slotted Adebayo 10th on their draft board.
Adebayo's final pre-draft workout came with the Charlotte Hornets, who held the No. 11 pick. He felt he performed well. He loved the idea of playing close to home -- close to Mom. "I wanted Charlotte," he says.
He was laying in bed at the Grand Hyatt in midtown Manhattan two nights before the draft, relaxing with his mother and Jabari Ashe, a Northside teammate and perhaps his closest friend, when Saratsis burst in with news: Charlotte had traded for Dwight Howard. The Hornets would not select Adebayo.
In the green room two nights later, he had no idea where he would go. Saratsis had the impression Miami was not interested.
In its war room, Miami's brain trust focused on Denver picking 13th -- one spot before the Heat. They were confident Detroit -- at No. 12, with Andre Drummond -- would not pick Adebayo.
"Denver didn't need anything specific," says Adam Simon, Miami's assistant general manager and vice president of basketball operations. "I had a feeling they were open to trading the pick, but you don't know where. Your fingers are crossed."
Denver traded the pick to the Utah Jazz, who selected Donovan Mitchell. Spoelstra and Riley took one last pro forma canvas of the room: OK, what's the pick?
Kammerer, normally mild-mannered, pounded his fist on the conference table: "Our pick is Bam!" he screamed, Spoelstra and others recall.
THE HEAT REALIZED right away Adebayo's competitive fire was as advertised. He arrived early for summer league practices and stayed late, often jumping in with guards for ballhandling drills when he finished his own work.
He made it clear he would back down from no one. In one practice, Adebayo and Eric Mika, a bruiser from Brigham Young University, guarded each other. Adebayo thought Mika's physicality crossed the line into dangerous agitation -- an injury risk.
Adebayo tossed Mika to the ground and delivered a message: "We can compete, but if you are gonna play like that, I am gonna f--- you up."
"When Mika saw Bam's reaction, he didn't want any part of it," Howard says.
The regular NBA proved a tougher adjustment. Adebayo grew homesick on road trips. "It took a toll when I couldn't see my mom as much," Adebayo says. If Blount's birthday falls during a road trip, Adebayo now arranges for her to join the team.
Adebayo didn't play in nine of Miami's first 20 games, stuck behind Hassan Whiteside. "The only thing I was frustrated about was that Spo couldn't find me 30 seconds," Adebayo says. "I don't care if I don't clock a minute. But you can find me 30 seconds."
He never verbalized that to Spoelstra. When friends complained to Adebayo, urging him to push back, he demurred. "He would just say, 'I'm gonna be patient, and when I get in, I'm gonna do my thing,'" Taylor says.
"This is bigger than me," he would tell Graves.
Adebayo kept inviting himself into drills reserved for guards. When he learned Alonzo Mourning held most of the team's weight-room records --- the room is named 'Zo's Zone -- he resolved to break them. Coaches warned it would take him five or six years just to flirt with them.
He has already smashed two, including the hamstring curl.
"He is the strongest guy we've ever had," Spoelstra says, "and as ferocious a competitor as has ever been through these walls."
Adebayo kept it simple off the court. He has little interest in the trappings. Last summer, he waffled over $900 of patio furniture so long, the sales clerk whispered that the store offered layaway, says Rudy Poindexter, Adebayo's personal chef and confidante.
He made fast friends with Josh Richardson, and hung out often at Richardson's house. A big night out for them is hitting balls at Top Golf. Adebayo wears the free Tissot watches players receive as part of the company's NBA sponsorship deal. He met Poindexter when the chef worked for Whiteside; Adebayo realized he could mooch healthy meals at Whiteside's house.
He dresses in sweats. "You are not going to see Bam on LeagueFits," an Instagram account chronicling NBA fashion, says teammate Derrick Jones Jr.
"I always ask, 'What are you gonna buy?'" says Clifford, his high school coach. "He says, 'I don't need anything -- just Mom.'"
Adebayo recently confided to teammates that he finally splurged on something: an automatic T-shirt folder. He was tired of folding laundry. Adebayo does his own housework. His apartment is immaculate -- Blount's influence. "She was strict," Graves says. "That trailer was the cleanest house I've ever been in."
Adebayo's on-court career changed two months into his rookie season, when Spoelstra let him play most of the fourth quarter in a blowout loss in Cleveland. Adebayo scored 19 points on 7-of-7 shooting, including a dunk on a certain Miami legend who would rejoin the Heat two months later:
"I didn't have a chance," Wade says. "From that moment, I was a fan. Bam has a chance to be a lifer in Miami."
EARLY THIS SEASON, Wade texted Adebayo that he wanted him to break Wade's franchise records. They have a pending bet on Adebayo's season stat line, though neither will disclose the terms. Bob McAdoo, a longtime Miami assistant, made similar wagers with Wade and Haslem early in their careers, Wade says.
If there is an assist component to that bet, Adebayo is probably shattering it. Spoelstra has given him leeway to push the ball and run Miami's offense. Adebayo was ready to seize that role without permission. "You're stuck in between," he says. "Like I can do it, but if I f--- it up, I know [Spoelstra] is gonna be upset. You just say, 'F--- it,' and go for it.'"
There have been growing pains -- too many high-risk turnovers. "He's going through exploration," Spoelstra says. "The only way to get better is experience. I want him to be a different player six weeks from now, three months from now. And then I'll move the goal posts again."
Adebayo assumed a leadership role faster than Heat officials expected. When Spoelstra calls timeout and huddles on the floor with his staff, Adebayo often takes Spoelstra's chair and gathers the team for a message. "It's never about him -- never, 'Oh, you missed me on that play,'" says Meyers Leonard. "It's always something uplifting, or something we might be having trouble with on defense."
Adebayo knew this could be a pivotal season. As a rookie, he promised Poindexter he would hire him as his chef once he signed his first big NBA contract, but he decided to make the move over the summer. Poindexter tossed Adebayo's junk food, and introduced health dishes du jour: quinoa, egg whites, turkey sausage, apple slices, bone broth.
Adebayo is down to 6.75% body fat. When he feels light, he lifts his shirt and orders Poindexter to admire his abs.
On the road, Adebayo texts Poindexter screenshots of menus and asks what to order. At home, he can't eat as much of his mom's cooking anymore.
Blount wants to move back to the country soon. Adebayo has promised to buy her a house once he signs his next contract. "He was practically in tears telling me," Poindexter says.
"My mom is a country lady," Adebayo says. "She wants to be in the trees. I'm really gonna miss her. It has always been me and her." She will still visit, stay with Adebayo, cheer at games. Richardson can still hear her shouting, "Why didn't you windmill it?" when Adebayo gently dunked on one fast break.
Blount's dream is a house in Greensboro or Kentucky, far from the trailer in Pinetown. But that trailer -- and that community -- follows Adebayo. A dozen Northside coaches and teachers trekked to Washington, D.C., last season to watch Adebayo against the Wizards. He still texts often with Meredith Proctor, the wife of Adebayo's Northside coach, Mike Proctor, who died of cancer in 2018. "I miss your face" is one of Adebayo's favored replies.
When Adebayo was named an All-Star, Proctor texted Adebayo to look out the window at the sun and know it was her husband beaming. "I'm trying not to cry today, Ms. Meredith," he replied.
Adebayo's adult mentors recall how sheepish he would be when he took them to that trailer for the first time. "I didn't want to be looked at as a below-the-poverty-line kid," he says. "But now I think, that trailer is where I got the ambition. The anger. If we had a better life, I wouldn't be here. That trailer made me."
Chapman: Altuve's 2019 jersey grab 'suspicious'
TAMPA, Fla. -- Yankees reliever Aroldis Chapman joined the chorus of players criticizing the Astros for their sign stealing, and speaking through an interpreter, he called the actions of the Houston's Jose Altuve at the end of the 2019 American League Championship Series "a little suspicious."
Chapman was also part of the Yankees team beaten by the Astros in the 2017 American League Championship Series. But in the final game of the 2019 ALCS, Chapman threw an off-speed pitch that Altuve hit for a series-ending walk-off home run. As Altuve rounded third base, he clutched at the collar of his shirt, yelling at teammates to not rip off his jersey -- actions that have since raised speculation about whether he may have been wearing some kind of wire that tipped him off to the identity of the forthcoming pitch.
Chapman reiterated Thursday morning that he bore the responsibility for the result, as he was the pitcher who threw the ball. When pressed, he added, "I've seen that video -- a lot of people have seen that video; it's a popular video right now," Chapman said, with a slight hint of a smile.
"And yeah, if you look at his actions, they look a little suspicious. At the end of the day, I just don't know. I can't tell you if he had the sign or didn't have the sign -- I don't know. That's a good question for him, and for those guys. I just don't know."
"A lot of people are disappointed with the situation. That's why the commissioner did an investigation. ... Hopefully, they take the right actions. I just feel that they put baseball in a bad spot. A lot of people have suffered because of it, because of what they did, and what came out of it."
In the aftermath of the discipline handed down on the Astros for the sign-stealing, CC Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka have said they felt cheated out of the opportunity to play in the 2017 World Series.
"I believe so, too," Chapman said. "It was very close, going back to 2017. With everything, all the details that have come out, it was the extra edge that allowed them to move on."
Chapman complimented former Astros player Marwin Gonzalez, now with the Twins, for Gonzalez's recent apology for what happened in 2017.
"I gotta say, for Marwin to take that step, takes a lot, to come out and apologize to everybody publicly," he said. "It takes courage to do that. That's an example for all of those guys. At the end of the day, the findings of the investigation are there, there's no hiding about that. I think they should follow his steps and take some actions."
"At the end of the day, you really have to apologize to the fans. They are the ones watching and seeing everything that has developed. You put baseball in a bad spot, and it's time to take some actions and some responsibility."
Bregman, Altuve apologize for actions in 2017
Houston Astros players Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve on Thursday apologized in brief statements for their roles in the team's sign-stealing scheme in 2017.
The players were made available at a news conference as the Astros opened spring training in West Palm Beach, Florida.
"I am really sorry about the choices that were made by my team, by the organization and by me. I have learned from this and I hope to regain the trust of baseball fans," Bregman said.
Altuve said the Astros had a "great team meeting" on Wednesday night and said the "whole Astros organization feels bad for what happened in 2017."
"[I] especially feel remorse for the impact on our fans and the game of baseball," he said.
The apologies are a change from their responses at the team's fan fest last month, when neither player showed remorse for his actions.
The team said more players would be made available to the media later Thursday.
New Astros manager Dusty Baker said he hopes his players will be forgiven by fans and other players.
"I ask the baseball world to forgive them for the mistakes that they made," he said.
Astros owner Jim Crane, as he did last month after Major League Baseball released its findings and punished the organization for the sign-stealing scheme, apologized and vowed "that this will never again happen on my watch."
He pointed out that he went beyond MLB's decision to suspend manager AJ Hinch and general manager Jeff Luhnow by firing both men, and Crane said he agreed the players should not be punished. He called them "a great group of guys."
He was asked whether the Astros should keep their World Series championship from 2017 and pointed out that MLB made it clear Houston was keeping the title and that he agreed with that decision.
He said the Astros "cannot change the actions of past but [are] fully committed in moving forward in the right way."
Crane was asked by reporters about speculation that the Astros wore buzzers under their uniforms in 2019 to steal signs. MLB has said there is no evidence that buzzers were used by the team.
"I truly believe there were no buzzers and I don't even know where that came from," he said.
Asked whether the Astros cheated when they used video to steal signs in 2017, Crane replied: "We broke the rules. You can phrase that any way you want."
One stat that will shape 2020 for each National League team
Last week, we looked at one key statistic for each American League team. Let's do the same now for the National League -- a key number from the 2019 season and how that will shape what happens in 2020.
NL East
Atlanta Braves
The number: 4.18. The Braves finished 11th in the majors in bullpen ERA.
For the first half of the season, the Braves' bullpen was the perceived weak spot of an otherwise excellent team, leading to the deadline acquisitions of Mark Melancon, Shane Greene and Chris Martin. Melancon and Greene were already under team control for 2020, and the club quickly re-signed Martin as a free agent while also adding Giants closer Will Smith with a three-year, $40 million contract. The club also re-signed Darren O'Day, who made just eight appearances in 2019.
On paper, it should be a much better bullpen and a key to the Braves' hopes of three-peating in the NL East. It's worth noting, however, that the bullpen was more mediocre than awful in 2019, ranking 11th in ERA and 14th in win probability added (WPA). The Braves also went 83-4 when leading after eight innings (a .954 winning percentage that mirrors the MLB average of .955) and were 11-6 in extra innings. Of course, a good offense can help those results, but the Braves did not suffer an undue number of late-game losses.
The point? Manager Brian Snitker's life will certainly be easier knowing he can just hand the ball to Smith (although he did allow 10 home runs last season) rather than having a revolving door of closers. The overall effect on the Braves' win total with a full season from this group might be only a couple of wins, though, with that coming from what happens in the middle innings more so than what happens in the ninth. The Braves' WPA was 0.52; the fifth-best bullpen via WPA was the Yankees at 3.77. That suggests a three- to four-win improvement if the Braves end up with a top-five bullpen, maybe only a win or two improvement if it remains 10th or so. I'm not underselling the importance there: Three wins could be the difference in what should be a tight division race.
Miami Marlins
The number: 79. The Marlins had the worst weighted runs created figure in the National League.
I ran this list for the Tigers, the worst offenses of the decade based on wRC+ (100 is league average, so 79 suggests the Marlins were 21% worse than average):
2013 Marlins: 74
2019 Tigers: 77
2019 Marlins: 79
2010 Mariners: 79
2010 Astros: 79
The Marlins have replaced some of the trouble areas with veterans: Jesus Aguilar to play first base, Jonathan Villar to play second or third, Corey Dickerson for left field and Francisco Cervelli to back up Jorge Alfaro at catcher. They could still have the worst offense in the league.
The problems here are obvious:
Alfaro: 154 strikeouts, 22 walks
Isan Diaz: 59 strikeouts, 19 walks
Harold Ramirez: 91 strikeouts, 18 walks
Lewis Brinson: 74 strikeouts, 13 walks
OK, those are all young players, but they're not super young. Alfaro was 26, Brinson 25, Ramirez 24 and Diaz 23. Given the aging curve in today's game, those players should be entering their primes, not still figuring out how to hit a breaking ball. We'll see how new hitting coach Eric Duncan will help. He was hired last year as minor league hitting coordinator and promoted to the big league staff in April when Mike Pagliarulo was fired. The Marlins also brought in James Rowson as bench coach. He was the hitting coach last year for the Twins, so he'll also work with the hitters. Step one: Improve that chase rate, which was second worst in the majors. Easy to suggest, harder to execute.
New York Mets
The number: minus-93. The Mets ranked next to last in the majors with minus-93 defensive runs saved, ahead of only the Orioles (minus-105) and a whopping 229 runs worse than the Dodgers, the best defensive team in the majors according to DRS.
I'm not sure I buy into that 229-run difference. Heck, since the Mets allowed 737 runs, this suggests that if you gave the Mets' pitching staff the Dodgers' defense, it would have allowed 508 runs, which no team has done in a full season since 1972. Another way to look at it: Since approximately every 10 runs translates to an extra win, that 229-run spread on defense suggests the difference between the 106-win Dodgers and 86-win Mets wasn't pitching or hitting, but work in the field.
Anyway, no matter how you slice it, the Mets were not a good defensive team in 2019. The metrics at FanGraphs aren't as extreme but are still bad, with the Mets rating 27 runs below average, 70 runs worse than the top-rated A's. Amed Rosario was so bad at shortstop early on that reports surfaced in June that the team was working him out in center field. With help from the analytics staff and coach Gary DiSarcina, Rosario did improve, working on his pre-pitch setup and footwork, and was at least average defensively after that. J.D. Davis was legitimately awful at both third base and in left field (a combined minus-20 DRS, which is certainly believable if you watched him play). Center field was a problem. Pete Alonso and Robinson Cano are a step slow at first base and second base, respectively.
The only addition on the position-player side of things is Jake Marisnick, who takes over the Juan Lagares role as right-handed platoon center fielder and defensive replacement. Still, other than Marisnick, the Mets don't have any above-average defenders. The pitching staff, meanwhile, will have a full season from Marcus Stroman and has added Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha, three pitchers who averaged less than a strikeout per inning in 2019, making them (for this era) pitch-to-contact guys. We'll see how that trio works in conjunction with a potentially shaky defense.
Philadelphia Phillies
The number: 2. The Phillies had just two relievers (Hector Neris and Jose Alvarez) throw at least 50 innings.
It was a rough year to be a Phillies reliever. Here are the eight relievers on the Opening Day roster and how many innings they pitched in 2019:
Jose Alvarez: 59
Seranthony Dominguez: 24⅔
Adam Morgan: 29⅔
Hector Neris: 67⅔
Pat Neshek: 18
Juan Nicasio: 47⅓
Edubray Ramos: 15
David Robertson: 6⅔
That adds up to 268 innings, meaning the Phillies needed 316 innings from relievers not on the Opening Day roster (or who might have been in the rotation to start the year). In other words, because of all the injuries, the Phillies had to dig deep into their depth, the waiver wire and trades just to fill the bullpen throughout the year.
So things almost have to be better in 2020, right? Not necessarily. Despite the turnover, the Phillies' bullpen was actually OK-ish, ranking 16th in the majors in ERA and 15th in win probability added. Given that the lineup was just eighth in the NL in runs and the rotation 11th in ERA, the Phillies were mediocre across the board, which is why they finished 81-81. They might get a better bullpen in 2020, but they also need better offense and better starting pitching.
Washington Nationals
The number: 139. Anthony Rendon created about 139 runs in his 646 plate appearances in 2019.
Rendon followed up his best regular season with a terrific postseason, batting .328 with a 1.003 OPS while driving in 15 runs in 17 games. How will the Nationals replace his production? Rather than signing Rendon or Josh Donaldson, they went to Plan C, re-signing Asdrubal Cabrera (whom they had acquired during the season) and Howie Kendrick, and signing infielder Starlin Castro and first baseman Eric Thames. Rookie Carter Kieboom will also receive a chance to win a job at either second or third base.
For a simple analysis, let's give Rendon's plate appearances to Cabrera and Castro, split equally between the two. Using 2019 numbers, Rendon created 9.5 runs per 27 outs, Cabrera created 5.6 and Castro 4.1. If we give each of the latter two 323 plate appearances, we estimate they would combine to create 81 runs over 646 PAs (while using up 62 more outs than Rendon did). That's a 58-run difference -- or about six wins, and that's before factoring in defense or whether Cabrera will decline at age 34.
Losing Rendon is a huge, huge blow for the Nationals. Maybe Kieboom steps up and hits as a rookie. Maybe they'll get more production from first base with a Thames/Kendrick platoon (with Kendrick also playing a little second base). Juan Soto, of course, could put up even bigger numbers. The Nationals were second in the NL in runs in 2019. Without Rendon, it's going to be difficult to repeat that total.
NL Central
Chicago Cubs
The number: 90. The Cubs' core five position players (Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber) combined for an estimated 90 runs created above average.
One of the refrains you hear about the Cubs is that the young position players from the 2016 World Series team haven't improved since then -- or, in some cases, have gotten worse. Using the batting runs stat from Baseball-Reference.com (which estimates how many runs each hitter creates compared to an average hitter), here are the year-by-year combined totals for this group:
2016: plus-79
2017: plus-75
2018: plus-46
2019: plus-90
The group actually had its best season in 2019 -- although in 2016, Schwarber was injured almost the entire season and Baez and Contreras weren't yet full-time players. But the group was definitely much better in 2019 than 2018.
Along those lines, here are the year-by-year totals for the overall runs the Cubs scored beyond the average NL team, with the number in parentheses the resulting total for the rest of the Cubs' offense beyond the core five.
2016: plus-90 (plus-11)
2017: plus-79 (plus-4)
2018: plus-52 (plus-6)
2019: plus-40 (minus-50)
As you can see, we have similar totals for 2016, 2017 and 2018 for the non-core hitters -- slightly above average -- but in 2019, the rest of the offense was 50 runs below average. True, the members of the core five haven't been able to align their best seasons together. Baez was great in 2018, but Contreras had a bad season and Bryant missed time with an injury. In 2019, Schwarber had his best season and Contreras was terrific, but Baez wasn't as good and Bryant wasn't quite as good as he was in 2016-17. Still, most of the blame for 2019 should be directed at everyone else -- Albert Almora Jr. (minus-16 runs), utility guys Daniel Descalso (minus-16) and Ben Zobrist (minus-5), and Addison Russell (minus-9). Tony Kemp (minus-7) and Jonathan Lucroy (minus-5) came over in trades and didn't help in limited action.
The third-best hitter on the Cubs in 2019 in terms of runs produced above average was Nicholas Castellanos at plus-15, and he's gone. The only major league free agent signed was Steven Souza Jr. Yes, it would be nice if the core five were all great at once, but a huge key for the 2020 Cubs is simply hoping the second-tier position players aren't as awful.
Cincinnati Reds
The number: 98. That's Joey Votto's OPS+ in 2019. He entered the season with a career mark of 155.
It's been a fun, busy offseason for the Reds. I wrote a bit about their winter earlier, so let's instead use this space to talk about one of my favorite players. Votto, of course, had been one of the best hitters in the majors over the past decade, leading the NL in on-base percentage seven times, hitting .311 in his career through 2018, winning the 2010 MVP award and just missing in 2017, when he fell two points short of Giancarlo Stanton. Even when his power tailed off in 2018, he still led the league with a .417 OBP. But the bottom fell out in 2019 with a .261/.357/.411 line. The Reds have theoretically improved their offense with Castellanos and Mike Moustakas, but a better Votto will also help -- not an elite Votto, which isn't realistic at age 36, but even a 2018 semi-elite Votto would be worth an additional two wins at the plate.
What are the odds of that? I found all 35-year-old hitters since 2000 who qualified for the batting title with an OPS+ between 95 and 105. That gave me a list of 17 hitters besides Votto. Two of those didn't play again (Jermaine Dye and Joe Mauer) and another did it in 2019 (Alex Gordon). The other 14 declined an average of six points in OPS+. The best-case scenario was Carlos Delgado, who went from .258/.333/.448 at age 35 to .271/.353/.517 at age 36.
The projection systems are somewhat optimistic for Votto, with Steamer forecasting a .270/.382/.451 line. That's definitely playable. If Votto struggles like Greg Vaughn (103 OPS+ to 62) or Ryan Howard (96 to 85) did, however, then the Reds have to consider a backup plan at first base. If Votto's downward trend continues, do you stick with him all season just because he's Joey Votto?
Milwaukee Brewers
The number: 1.100. Christian Yelich hit .329/.429/.671 for a 1.100 OPS and finished second in the MVP voting.
Given that MVP Cody Bellinger slowed down the final two months, it seems likely that if Yelich hadn't fractured his kneecap on Sept. 10 and missed the Brewers' final 18 games, he would have won his second consecutive MVP award. Since Barry Bonds had his last monster season in 2004 -- let's call that the end of the steroids era -- there have been only five seasons when a player has had an 1.100 OPS, three of them by Albert Pujols:
Pujols, 2006: 1.102
Pujols, 2008: 1.114
Pujols, 2009: 1.101
Bryce Harper, 2015: 1.109
Yelich, 2019: 1.100
It wasn't just the rabbit ball. Yelich improved relative to the league. The most impressive thing is he adjusted even as pitchers challenged him less often -- his rate of pitches in the strike zone fell from 48.6% to 41.8%. Only Pete Alonso (41.7%) saw a lower percentage of pitches in the zone. On top of his hitting, Yelich stole 30 bases in 32 attempts, making him just the 13th 40/30 player in history. (Ronald Acuna Jr. also joined the club in 2019.)
What's in store for 2020? More of the same, I would expect, assuming no lingering issues from the injury. Yelich had the fifth-highest average exit velocity, and combined with a much more optimal average launch angle (4.7 degrees to 11.2), more of those line drives left the park. He's my preseason choice for NL MVP and a potential Triple Crown winner. Assuming he gets any pitches to hit.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The number: .314. Bryan Reynolds hit .314/.377/.503 and finished fourth in the Rookie of the Year voting in a loaded NL class.
It's easy to go negative on the Pirates, and the recent Starling Marte trade suggests they are throwing in the towel after a 93-loss season. So let's go positive and talk about Reynolds, one of the biggest surprises of 2019. Acquired from the Giants in the Andrew McCutchen trade, the Vanderbilt product hit .302 at Double-A in 2018, although with just seven home runs in 88 games. Baseball America ranked him the No. 9 prospect in the Pittsburgh system, and he began 2019 in Triple-A. He got called up in late April when Marte went on the injured list and hit .322 in May, .369 in June and was at .332 through August before slumping in September.
How legit was Reynolds' season? He did rank third among qualified hitters in BABIP, with a .387 average that trailed only White Sox teammates Yoan Moncada and Tim Anderson. Still, there is a long list of positives in his hitting profile: Exit velocity and hard-hit rate were slightly above the MLB average, his line-drive rate was above the MLB average, his plus speed helped him to 16 infield hits, and his chase rate was right at MLB average (not bad for a rookie who basically skipped Triple-A). He hit .314 and his expected batting average via Statcast based on the quality of his contact was .296. Reynolds can hit. He's very aggressive in the zone, and if he can lay off some off the off-speed stuff off the plate, I see more .300 seasons in his future.
St. Louis Cardinals
The number: 0.91. Second-year starter Jack Flaherty posted a 0.91 ERA in the second half as he held batters to a .142 average over 15 starts.
While much of the offseason talk around the Cardinals centered around improving an offense that ranked just 10th in the NL in runs, in order to repeat as division champions they will likely need another big season from Flaherty, who finished fourth in the Cy Young voting after going 11-8 with a 2.75 ERA. Is Flaherty's monster second half a sign of more dominance to come? Remember that last offseason there was similar talk about Zack Wheeler, who had a 1.68 ERA in the second half of 2018 but finished 2019 with a 3.96 ERA.
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To see what we might expect from Flaherty, I checked the 20 lowest second-half ERAs since 2000 -- or 18, since two of them occurred in 2019 (Flaherty and Jacob deGrom) -- to see how those pitchers fared the following season. The list includes three Clayton Kershaw seasons and two from Johan Santana.
Only four of the 18 pitchers posted a lower overall ERA the following season -- Kershaw twice (2.13 to 1.69 and 1.83 to 1.77), Santana (2.87 to 2.77) and Pedro Martinez (2.26 to 2.22). The average increase was 0.72, which would raise Flaherty's season-ending ERA of 2.75 to 3.47.
It's worth noting that Flaherty's ERA was the second lowest on the list, behind only Jake Arrieta's 0.75 in the second half of 2015. (Arrieta's 2016 ERA rose from 1.77 to 3.10.) Flaherty's overall ERA of 2.75 was 17th highest on the list, however, so none of the others had such a big difference between their two halves. Maybe, like Arrieta, Flaherty simply had a half-season for the ages, but I would bet on another sub-3.00 ERA in 2020 and like him as a true No. 1 starter moving forward.
NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks
The number: 4.83. The Diamondbacks ranked 23rd in the majors with a 4.83 ERA in the seventh and eighth innings.
After they acquired Starling Marte, adding to their earlier offseason additions of Madison Bumgarner and Kole Calhoun, I wrote about how I like where the Diamondbacks are headed coming off an 84-win season, with a more versatile lineup, a better outfield and good rotation depth. I didn't mention the bullpen because the bullpen had some issues. Now, seventh- and eighth-inning ERA isn't everything -- the Nationals ranked 29th in the majors in that department and won the World Series -- but you'd obviously rather be at the top of this list than at the bottom. Seven of the top 10 teams in this stat won 90-plus games. In 2018, seven of the top 10 won 90-plus games.
The Diamondbacks were actually pretty good in this area in 2017 and 2018. In 2017, when they won a wild card, they ranked seventh in the majors. In 2018, they ranked eighth. Archie Bradley was a huge key in 2017, posting a 1.18 ERA over 61 innings in the seventh and eighth innings. In 2018, the D-backs received good work from a nondescript group of relievers that included T.J. McFarland, Yoshihisa Hirano and Andrew Chafin. That group wasn't as good in 2019, and Bradley had to replace the struggling Greg Holland as closer.
For 2020, Arizona has signed Junior Guerra, who had a 3.55 ERA for the Brewers, and Hector Rondon, who had a 3.71 ERA for the Astros but saw his strikeout rate plummet. Maybe Taylor Widener, who struck out 176 in 137⅓ innings at Double-A in 2018 but got lit up at Triple-A Reno (8.10 ERA), can help as a reliever. Jon Duplantier was a onetime hot prospect as a starter who could become an impact reliever. Whatever the names, if manager Torey Lovullo can build a late-game bullpen, the D-backs will win more than 84 games in 2020.
Colorado Rockies
The number: 31-57. The Rockies were 40-34 through June 20, leading the wild-card race at the time. The Rockies would go just 31-57 the rest of the way to finish 71-91.
It all began with a three-game weekend sweep at Dodger Stadium, all three walk-off losses. It got really ugly in July and August, as the Rockies went 15-38 and were outscored by 115 runs those two months -- more than two runs per game.
Because of the way the streak started, with those bullpen defeats, the pen took much of the blame for the collapse. (And it was a bad bullpen, with a 5.14 ERA that ranked 28th in the majors. It was a little better by win probability added, ranking 19th.) When you're outscored by two runs per game, however, it's a complete team effort, and the lack of organizational depth showed up in those two months.
Obviously, it didn't help that Kyle Freeland (6.73 ERA) fell apart after finishing fourth in the 2018 Cy Young vote, but his replacements were awful as well -- Peter Lambert (7.25 ERA in 19 starts), Jeff Hoffman (6.56 ERA in 15 starts), Chi Chi Gonzalez (5.43 ERA in 12 starts). Antonio Senzatela (6.71 ERA) struggled. Add in Tyler Anderson's knee surgery after five starts (after making 32 starts in 2018) and the Rockies simply had to dig too deep into an area where they lacked depth.
The offense struggled as well. The Rockies scored 835 runs, but that ranked just fourth in the NL, which doesn't cut it for a Coors Field team. It was their first time out of the top two since 2012 and first time out of the top three since 2008. Their park-adjusted wRC+ of 86 ranked 26th in the majors.
So with holes all over the roster, what have the Rockies done? Nothing. They have some bounce-back candidates in Freeland and perhaps Daniel Murphy, and I liked Garrett Hampson as a prospect, but they still have Ian Desmond and no offense at catcher and the same group of starters and relievers. I guess the thinking is this group won 91 games and lost the NL West in a tiebreaker in 2018 and that 2019 was one of those seasons where everything went wrong. Indeed, that seems to be the feeling of owner Dick Monfort, who recently said this at an offseason event:
"In '08, with basically the exact same team, we won 74 games and lost 88. But like a great American hero, Forrest Gump, once said, '[Stuff] happens.' And that's what happened in '08, because in '09 we won 92 and lost 70. Most of the people I talk to that were on those teams say the '09 team was our greatest team.
"I interpolated '07, '08 and '09 -- I had an analytical staff go through and interpolate those numbers -- and so in 2020, we'll win 94 games and lose 68."
And you wonder why Nolan Arenado wants out?
Los Angeles Dodgers
The number: 3.44. The Dodgers had a 3.44 ERA in the eighth inning in the regular season, fifth best in the majors.
The eighth inning, of course, is when Game 5 of the division series against the Nationals unraveled as the Dodgers blew a 3-1 lead when Clayton Kershaw allowed back-to-back home runs. The Dodgers would lose the game in 10 innings when Howie Kendrick belted a grand slam off Joe Kelly. Even then, closer Kenley Jansen didn't enter the game until two batters later.
The question: Did manager Dave Roberts (and the front office, which obviously worked with him on a game plan for various scenarios) need to think outside the box and use Kershaw? Or should Roberts have gone with the guys that helped win 106 games in the regular season? Pedro Baez had pitched in the eighth inning most often in the regular season and pitched well, with a 2.04 ERA over 35⅓ innings. Roberts had lefties Adam Kolarek (who could have faced Juan Soto) and Julio Urias still available.
It seems clear that Roberts was affected by what happened in Game 4, when Urias allowed three hits to five batters while facing the top of the Washington lineup. Baez replaced Urias in that game and allowed a three-run home run to Ryan Zimmerman. Instead of mixing and matching or using Kenta Maeda, the Dodgers tried a new plan in their biggest game of the year. Maybe that idea was also a reaction to Game 4 of the 2018 World Series, when the Dodgers blew a 4-0 lead in the final three innings as Roberts churned through six relievers.
The other factor, however: While that 3.44 ERA in the eighth inning looks solid enough, the Dodgers' bullpen wasn't clutch when it mattered most, ranking just 21st in win probability added. Roberts simply didn't trust his setup guys or, in the end, Jansen.
In a sense, given the depth and talent here and the likely division title, the regular season will simply be a prelude to the Big Question: How will the bullpen do in October? Jansen is still the closer. Baez, Kelly, Kolarek and Dylan Floro are still here. Urias might start or might pitch in relief come the postseason. The best hope (and solution) is that free agent Blake Treinen finds his 2018 form and becomes a dominant reliever -- and that Jansen bounces back. Given that Jansen has a 3.34 ERA and 22 home runs allowed over the past two seasons, his days as an elite closer might be over. October is a long way off, but the bullpen question will linger all season.
San Diego Padres
The number: 3.1. Manny Machado tied for 77th among position players in WAR at 3.1, according to Baseball-Reference.com.
The Padres improved from 66 to 70 wins in 2019, but that was a bit of a disappointment when factoring in that they signed Machado, had strong rookie seasons from Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack, and had an All-Star closer with a 1.19 ERA.
Machado was hardly the only reason the Padres didn't climb closer to .500, but his .256/.334/.462 season in a high-offense year wasn't what you'd expect from a $300 million player in his prime. Machado got off to a slow start, played better in May, had a monster June with a .314 average and 11 home runs, but then hit .209 with six home runs over August and September. Did he lose interest as the Padres fell out of the race? Was he playing through some nagging injuries? Did the weight of the big contract wear him down? Machado struggled at home (.219/.297/.406), hit just 21 doubles and led the NL by grounding into 24 double plays.
What are the hopes for 2020? There isn't a lot of bad luck built into his numbers. He hit .256 versus a Statcast expected average of .266 based on the quality of his contact. He slugged .462 versus an expected slug of .466. Machado had a high average exit velocity (87th percentile) and a better-than-average strikeout rate, but his high popup rate (10.6%) ate into his batting average, and the move away from Camden Yards -- where he thrived in the home run department -- hurt his power numbers. His line-drive rate was also the lowest of his career, which explains the big drop in doubles.
It's hard to gauge who Machado is at this time. His numbers the past four seasons:
2016: .294/.343/.533, 130 OPS+, 6.9 WAR
2017: .259/.310/.471, 108 OPS+, 3.5 WAR
2018: .297/.367/.538, 145 OPS+, 5.7 WAR
2019: .256/.334/.462, 109 OPS+, 3.1 WAR
The Padres paid for 2018 Machado and got 2017 Machado. That's still a good player: durable, plus defense, 30 home runs. The Padres just hope they get a star turn from Machado in 2020 and those additional three wins or so.
San Francisco Giants
The number: 29.9. Using Baseball-Reference.com's weighted average age (adjusted for playing time), the Giants had the oldest group of position players in the majors, with an average age of 29.9. Under the previous front-office regime, the Giants tried to push the core of an aging roster as far as it would go. They won a wild card in 2016, the first year after giving big free-agent contracts to Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija, but it's been three straight losing seasons since then. If anything, the 77-85 record in 2019 was a surprise (thanks to a terrific bullpen, the Giants overachieved their Pythagorean record by six wins).
Not surprisingly, it's been a quiet offseason for Farhan Zaidi. It's an old team with a mediocre (although improving) farm system and a big payroll. There wasn't really any reason to do much. The Giants could try to push from 77 to 85 wins and still end up winning 65. There aren't many trade options either: The veterans make too much and weren't that good. The team's best player was a 28-year-old rookie outfielder (Mike Yastrzemski). It appears the first year of the post-Bruce Bochy era will look a lot like Bochy's final year. Good luck to new skipper Gabe Kapler.
Hurdles star looks forward to life after athletics after multiple medal-winning career
Perri Shakes-Drayton, the second-fastest Briton of all-time in the women’s 400m hurdles, has called time on her career aged 31.
Only Sally Gunnell, the Olympic and world champion and former world record-holder, has run quicker than Shakes-Drayton. But in addition to her hurdles performances the Londoner will be remembered for her races in the flat 400m and relay.
In 2013 she won European indoor titles at 400m and 4x400m in Gothenburg. At the World Indoor Championships in Istanbul in 2012, meanwhile, she anchored the British team to a spectacular victory over the United States in the relay before going on to reach the Olympic semi-finals in her specialist event in London later that year.
In total she won seven major medals at indoor and outdoor championships – including the European under-23 400m hurdles crown in 2009 – and such performances led to her going on the cover of AW several times.
Good luck to Perri Shakes-Drayton in retirement. The multiple AW cover star is hanging up her spikes aged 31. pic.twitter.com/llwozIhOrb
— AW (@AthleticsWeekly) February 13, 2020
Her best 400m hurdles time of 53.67 was set at the London Anniversary Games in 2013 but a few weeks later she tore her cruciate ligament and damaged cartilage in her knee in the World Championship final in Moscow.
It was a career-threatening injury and she missed the following two seasons before re-inventing herself as a 400m flat runner. This culminated in her helping the GB team to relay silver at the World Championships in London in 2017.
She struggled to recapture the form she had before the knee injury, however, and last year she married international high jumper Mike Edwards and is now looking forward to life after athletics.
“There comes a point in an athlete’s life where you’ve got to decide to call it a day,” she says. “Athletics has given me so many opportunities, I have travelled the world, I’ve met some great people and I’ve had my fair share of ups and downs. I am proud of what I achieved and when I look back at the archives and see the races – the excitement I bring to a relay – it does put a smile on my face.
She added: “I have had a tough battle with injuries but I managed to come back in 2017 and get a silver medal in relay at the worlds and that was nice but now I am ready to move on. It has taken me a long time to make this announcement because it is not something easy. I have been in athletics for the majority of my life. I’ve been doing it for almost 20 years and professionally for 11 – it is a big part of me.
“I am good, my body is good and it is not because I am carrying an injury it is just that I got to a point where I was like ‘I am ready to move on’. Big thanks to my coach Chris Zah. He saw the potential in me from the start at a young age and he has been there through the ups and through the downs.”
Coronavirus: Hong Kong and Singapore sevens rescheduled
The Hong Kong and Singapore legs of the World Rugby Sevens Series have been rescheduled from April to October because of the coronavirus outbreak.
Several Asian-based sporting events have been postponed, including April's Chinese Grand Prix.
On Thursday, the coronavirus death toll in China rose above 1,350.
"The health and safety of our players, fans and everyone working on the event is always our highest priority," a World Rugby statement said.
The Hong Kong sevens, due to take place from 3-5 April, will now be the final leg in the series from 16-18 October, while the Singapore tournament, which was scheduled for 11-12 April, will be on 10-11 October.
The postponement leaves an 11-week gap in the men's calendar between March's Vancouver tournament and the London leg on 23-24 May.
A women's tournament will run alongside the men's in Hong Kong for the first time this year, but the change of schedule means women's teams will have a three-month gap between Sydney Sevens on 1-2 February and Langford Sevens on 2-3 May.
Tokyo Olympics chief Toshiro Muto said on Thursday that cancelling or postponing the 2020 Games, due to begin on 24 July, because of the coronavirus outbreak "has not been considered".
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