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Projecting Bundesliga title race: Bad news for Bayern ahead?

Published in Soccer
Wednesday, 15 January 2020 20:16

A few weeks ago, I compared the Bundesliga to American college football's Big 12 conference -- one dominated by offense-friendly, super-fun systems. It was an apt comparison in another way, too: The same damn team wins the league every year. The Oklahoma Sooners have won five straight titles in the Big 12; Bayern Munich have won seven straight titles in Germany. In fact, the last time a team other than Bayern won the league, it was Borussia Dortmund, executing one of its most sustained peaks as a club with two league titles and a Champions League finals appearance. Bayern then purchased a couple of Dortmund's best players, adopted pieces of manager Jürgen Klopp's press-happy style (who's now using it to max effect at Liverpool) and started rolling.

Only once in Bayern's run from 2012-19 has anyone come within even 10 points of the champs, but that happened last year, as an aging Bayern had to make a sustained late-season charge in order to take first place. With Arjen Robben retiring, Franck Ribery, James Rodriguez and Mats Hummels now gone and Manuel Neuer, Javi Martinez, Jerome Boateng, Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Müller all the wrong side of 30, it's fair to wonder whether last year was the Bayern dynasty's last gasp. And after some early-season stumbles got Niko Kovač fired this past November, Bayern again finished the Hinrunde (the first half of the Bundesliga slate) looking up at someone else in the table.

This time, however, they have a few clubs to worry about. RB Leipzig lead the way with 37 points. Borussia Mönchengladbach, which led the way for most of the fall, have 35. Bayern (33), Dortmund (30), Schalke 04 (30) are still in the running, and even Bayer Leverkusen (28), Hoffenheim (27), Freiburg (26), and Wolfsburg (24) aren't completely done.

With the Rückrunde (second half of the season) getting underway on Friday, let's take a look at how good of a shot Bayern has of pulling back ahead once more, and which of the league's major contenders have the best shot at dethroning the champs.


METHODOLOGY:

To help gauge each team's true first-half form, I projected the second half of the season based on (1) each team's goal differential -- a better predictor of future performance than wins and losses -- and, (2) per Opta, each team's expected goal, or xG, differential. (xG measures the quality of a shot based on several variables and gives us an indication of how many goals a player or team should have scored on average, given these shots.)

Using the typical expected point totals from these two numbers, I approximated how many points each team would finish with if they maintained the form they generated in the fall.


If nothing else, this can serve as a general idea for who needs to truly upgrade their form to have a legitimate shot (Dortmund, for instance, who are certainly trying to do just that) and who was maybe getting by a bit on smoke and mirrors (Gladbach, whose peripherals don't quite match their lead over Bayern and others).

- Schoenfeld: How RB Leipzig became Germany's most hated club
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Barring a change in form, this is a two-team race with two wild cards. Leipzig and Bayern are neck and neck, and both are projected to finish solidly ahead of Gladbach and Dortmund. The other potential contenders should fall by the wayside.

Clear? Good. So let's delve into the ins and outs of each primary German contender and project the 2019-20 champion.


RB Leipzig (Projected finish: 1st, 77 points)

Current position/points: 1st, 37 points
Key stats: +1.65 GD/90 (first in Bundesliga), +1.27 xG margin/90 (second in Bundesliga)
Caesars title odds: +320
Notable January signings None
Notable January exits: Diego Demme (MF, Napoli)

The Red Bulls are the most polarizing team in the league, adhering only loosely to the mostly beloved 50+1 ownership model -- which infuriates most German fan bases to no end -- and continuously raising their profile. At the start of Bayern's title streak, they were in the fourth tier of German club soccer but next month they will play in their first Champions League round of 16 matchup against Tottenham Hotspur. They are, according to 538's Global Club Soccer Rankings, the seventh-best club in the world. They are at once an amazing David-turned-Goliath tale and a plastic club. They've also been the best club in Germany this season.

Manager Julian Nagelsmann's squad has the best point total and best goal differential, and they are easily the clearest challenger for ending Bayern's streak. Still, their xG differential was quite a bit worse than their goal differential, which suggests that some good fortune was in play, too.

What will help them: They take the best shots in the league. They are first in goals scored, second in xG, first in percentage of shots on goal and first in percentage of shots on target. And it all starts with Timo Werner. Not only has he taken more shots (excluding blocks) than all but one player in the league this season, but he's also got the highest on-target percentage of the league's most high-volume shot-takers. Right now, he's the German Steph Curry.

What will hurt them: They let you have too much of the ball. It's an odd thing to say about a Red Bull team -- this entire, multiclub Red Bull experience is based around principles like high pressing -- but Leipzig haven't really hogged the ball like you think a top team would. While their tempo (103.5 possessions per 90 minutes) is the highest among the contenders, their 54% possession rate is barely ahead of Hoffenheim's for fourth in the league, and they offer opponents 30.2 possessions per game of 6-plus passes, the most among contenders.

In theory, this might be costly in situations where you have to ramp up the pressure and come from behind. That hasn't yet been the case: Leipzig have trailed in the second half in parts of six matches but have rallied to win one and draw three. In fact, they've salvaged more points from deficits than anyone in the league. The correlation between these salvage jobs over the first and second half of the season, however, isn't strong. The fact that Leipzig has simply trailed in more matches than Dortmund or Bayern could catch up to them, but we're still projecting they should hang on.


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Handicapping the Bundesliga title race

Craig Burley explains why Bayern Munich, RB Leipzig and Monchengladbach could all win the Bundesliga this year.

Bayern Munich (second, 76 points)

Current position/points: third, 33 points
Key stats: +1.41 GD/90 (second in league), +1.56 xG margin/90 (first in league)
Caesars title odds: -200
Notable January signings: GK Alexander Nübel (Schalke), joining this summer
Notable January exits: None

The projections above are based on a formula that, when applied retrospectively, gets to within five points or so of a club's final point total on average. But in recent years, Bayern have made a habit of waiting until they have to turn things on before pulling away and winning the title. At the midway point of the 2017-18 season, they were on pace for 75.4 points but found a fifth gear and ended up with 84. In 2018-19, they were on pace for 70.3 but ended up with 78.

They don't need to turn things up that much to be in good shape for an eighth straight title, but they're in for a legitimate battle this season, especially if their relative bad fortune continues. I mean that in two ways.

First, from an xG perspective, Bayern have still been the class of the league this year, but a couple of either unlucky or unlikely results (depending on your perspective) have held them back. Second, the injuries are once again piling up. Center-backs Lucas Hernandez and Niklas Süle have both been out since October (Süle might not return this season), winger Kingsley Coman is likely out until February, winger Serge Gnabry might not be ready for the resumption of play and striker Robert Lewandowski underwent a minor groin surgery last month.

Bayern obviously have massive payroll advantages compared to everyone else, but that doesn't really pay off if your expensive guys can't stay on the pitch.

What will help them: Their possession game is still crazy-good. Pep Guardiola's Manchester City have possessed the ball 64% of the time in the Premier League this year. Barcelona, the home of the modern-day possession revolution, is at 64%, too. Bayern are at 67%, with an 87% pass completion rate. While plenty of those passes are horizontal or backwards, you don't accomplish those numbers without prodigious passing skill. Add to that one of the best scorers in the world (Lewandowski), and you've got the groundwork for lots and lots of goals.

What will hurt them: Their breakdowns are breakdowns. Despite those high completion rates, opponents are winning 4.7 possessions per 90 minutes in the attacking third of the field, fourth-most in the league and easily the most against any contender. In Bayern's losses, opponents have won six such possessions per match. There have been some wide open transition opportunities -- especially when you take backup center-backs into account -- and as a result, opponents are getting clean looks: 41% of opposing shots have been on goal. Only Frankfurt has allowed a higher percentage.

In addition, their slow tempo isn't great when it comes to playing from behind. They've thus far claimed just one point from matches in which they've trailed in the second half.


Borussia Mönchengladbach (third, 64 points)

Current position/points: second, 35 points
Key stats: +0.88 GD/90 (fourth in Bundesliga), +0.76 xG margin/90 (third)
Caesars title odds: +1100
Notable January signings: none
Notable January exits: none

Gladbach were once a true Bundesliga heavyweight, enjoying five league titles in the 1970s and finishing in the league's top five 17 times from 1968 to 1996. In the past 23 seasons, however, they've only done so four times. And after hopping from ninth to fifth last season, the Foals took a risk by bringing in a new manager -- they replaced veteran Dieter Hecking with 43-year old former Red Bull Salzburg manager Marco Rose, a branch off the Jürgen Klopp coaching tree.

The risk has thus far paid off. Gladbach were the story of the early season, topping the table for much of the way. A spirited, well-earned 2-1 win over Bayern on Dec. 7 seemed to prove their legitimacy as a contender; not only did they match the champs from an athleticism standpoint, but their home crowd was amped. It felt like a championship-worthy match.

They leaked a few points thereafter, however, losing 2-1 to Wolfsburg and suffering a scoreless draw at Hertha Berlin. They look more like a third- or fourth-place team on paper, especially after that late mini-funk. Can they find a new gear, or are they doomed to become a "started hot, couldn't maintain it" story?

What will help them: They create really, really good chances. Like Leipzig, a lot of Gladbach's success has come from creative passing and strong transition opportunities. They are attempting 71% of their shots in the box (second in the league) and 42% of their shots have been on goal (third). The ball gets filtered beautifully into the center forwards for quality shots: our attackers (Alassane Plea, Marcus Thuram, Breel Embolo, Patrick Herrmann) have combined for nearly half their shots and half their shots on goal, and they're all shooting on target at least 39% of the time. Thuram is at 70% thus far, and at 22 years old, no less.

This makes for a great combination when you've got active goalkeeping yourself. Veteran Yann Sommer has produced a crazy-good 77% save percentage this season, compared to 63% for opponents. That plus-14% margin is the best in the league. Save percentages aren't the most stable and sustainable stats in the stat book, but Sommer is really good.

What will hurt them: Set pieces. Only 1.1% of Gladbach corners have resulted in goals this year, the second-worst rate in the league; the Foals produce only 1.1 shots per 90 minutes off of corners (worst in the league), while opponents produce 2.2 (third-worst). And while Gladbach's free kicks have been pretty accurate, per Opta they're still only producing 2.4 chances per 90 minutes off of set pieces (eighth in the league), while opponents are producing 3.2 (second-worst). This adds up to another "nearly there" season.


Borussia Dortmund (fourth, 62 points)

Current position/points: fourth, 30 points
Key stats: +1.00 GD/90 (third), +0.45 xG margin/90 (fourth)
Caesars title odds: +800
Notable January signings: Erling Haaland (FW, RB Salzburg)
Notable January exits: Julian Weigl (DM, Benfica)

BVB were languishing in eighth place back in September, leading to speculation about second-year manager Lucien Favre's job security. A couple of dominant wins and a 3-3 thriller against Leipzig proved they are still loaded with potential and for now at least, Favre's still on the job. And they won the transfer window by winning the services of Erling Håland.

In 28 total league, cup and European matches with Salzburg, Haaland scored 22 goals. He was the breakout star of the Champions League group stage, and he's only 19 damn years old. It's quite possible that, in Haaland and winger Jadon Sancho, Dortmund have the two most exciting teenagers in the world. Their upside is preposterous.

What will help them: Quality shots and heavy possession. It's easy to break these four primary contenders into two buckets: the transition-heavy upstarts (Leipzig and Gladbach) and the possession-based stalwarts (Bayern and Dortmund). BVB play the possession game well -- their 86% pass completion rate is second-best in the league, and their 83% completion rate in the attacking third is first. No one produces better shots than their opponent like BVB: 43% of their shots are on goal (second-most), compared to only 27% for opponents (least).

The attacking trio of Sancho (on the right), Marco Reus (center) and Thorgan Hazard (left) has combined for 22 goals and 19 assists, and Dortmund are third in the league in goals scored despite lacking a dominant central finisher. If the 6-foot-4 Håland can provide some high-quality opportunities of his own, this could be the most fun offense in the world.

What will hurt them:The opportunities opponents get are slam dunks. Again, Dortmund's strengths and weaknesses are similar to Bayern's. Opponents may get fewer shots on target than anyone in the league but that high line, combined with a lumbering pair of center-backs (31-year-old Mats Hummels and big Manuel Akanji), means that when there's a breakdown, it becomes a fast break.

Thus far this season, Dortmund keepers (primarily Roman Bürki) have produced a save percentage of just 51%. In 10 years of Opta data, no one in the league has saved less than 55% of shots in a given year. You don't really want to make this kind of history.

Dortmund are a total wild card in this race. With fewer goalkeeping/defensive breakdowns and a Håland-based uptick in attacking prowess, BVB could be primed to surge. But the offense can only improve so much, and the defensive breakdowns were pretty jarringly bad. Improvement isn't guaranteed.

Full projected Bundesliga final table

1. RB Leipzig (76.8 points)
2. Bayern Munich (76.5)
3. Borussia Mönchengladbach (63.5)
4. Borussia Dortmund (62.2)
5. Wolfsburg (50.3)
6. Schalke 04 (49.9)
7. Bayer Leverkusen (49.6)
8. Eintracht Frankfurt (48.0)
9. TSG Hoffenheim (43.4)
10. Freiburg (43.4)
11. Augsburg (42.9)
12. Union Berlin (42.9)
13. Hertha Berlin (38.6)
14. Köln (35.2)
15. Mainz 05 (32.1)
16. Werder Bremen (30.8)
17. Fortuna Düsseldorf (29.9)
18. Paderborn (24.7)

Lisa Keightley believes her new England team can be a cool, confident outfit capable of reaching the Women's T20 World Cup final in less than two months' time.

Keightley, the first woman to be appointed full-time head coach of the England Women's team, has had mere weeks in the role, but already she is preparing the side for a high-pressure tournament in her native Australia, where the hosts will be favourites to defend the title.

"I'm planning to be in the final and I know the players are planning to be in the final," Keightley said at Lord's on the eve of England's squad announcement.

"I want us to bowl teams out. I want us to put pressure back on the bowlers as soon as we can and put teams under pressure as early as we can. We play different teams so that could look different at different times, but I want us to be positive, I want them to play with confidence and freedom because they know their game and they know their strengths and, under pressure, I'd hope that they'd go to their strengths."

At home in June, England thrashed West Indies in three ODIs and won the only one of their three T20Is that wasn't washed out. They swept their three T20Is against Pakistan in Malaysia at the end of last year and won two of their three ODIs with the other one abandoned because of rain.

But while they secured one consolation victory in the final T20I of the multi-format Ashes series on home soil in between, England were at times comprehensively outplayed by Australia, as the 12-4 scoreline suggests.

Keightley believes that Australia gained a crucial edge by holding their nerve in a tense first ODI, before overhauling a challenging target in the next 50-overs match, although much was made after the series of England's desire and need to catch up with their Ashes rivals.

"Australia are really strong," Keightley said on Thursday. "They got on a roll and England lost key moments in the first two games which went Australia's way. If England win those key moments, it could have been slightly different. So what I'll be looking for as a coach is working out, are players doing their strengths really well, in key moments? Are they really clear what they want to go to and the strengths they have and are they converting?

"That's what we'll need to do in the World Cup. There's going to be key moments and in those key moments, are we really clear on what strategies and match-ups we're going to do to give ourselves the best chance to win those moments, and then making sure we've got the right players and players that can hold their nerve."

England have shown they can do it in the past. They are the reigning 50-over World Cup champions, having defeated India by nine runs in a thrilling final at Lord's in 2017 when Anya Shrubsole claimed her sixth wicket for the match with just eight balls to spare. They reached the final of the 2018 T20 World Cup, losing to Australia, whom they are not due to meet until at least the semi-finals of this year's edition, having been drawn in opposite pools.

England leave on Wednesday for a T20 tri-series against Australia and India in Australia and Keightley is adamant that will be more about fine-tuning World Cup plans than giving everyone in the squad a run.

"It should be hard to get into a team and if the team's playing well, I don't want to give away caps, I think people need to earn it," she said. "That gives them confidence. When they've earned their cap it gives them confidence that they're playing well and in good form.

"If it works out like that and we need to rest people because we've picked up a few niggles or someone's not right with illness, they may get games but I wouldn't say we'll be giving everyone a go."

ALSO READ: Aussies Ahoy: The Cricinfo Awards Women's Batting nominations

A coach with 15 years' full-time experience, having finished her decade-long international playing career, Keightley walked straight into a job as NSW coach before becoming the first woman to coach the Australian national women's team during 2007-08. She was the England Academy women's coach from 2011-15, gaining valuable knowledge of many of the current England players, and led Perth Scorchers to two WBBL finals in 2017 and 2018.

She left the Scorchers to take up her current role, having initially been appointed coach of the London Spirit women's team for the new Hundred competition starting in July. And it is her experience rather than gender that she really draws upon as she embarks on another international job.

"I feel really fortunate and grateful to come through at a really nice time where I've been able to learn and coach and then get the opportunity to apply for jobs and get the roles," she said. "The exciting thing was actually, I have no doubt I would have been competing with male coaches, so to get this role when it was level-pegging, I suppose that just shows the opportunity I have to get the experience to put my hat in the ring.

"I just want to coach and to get the England job is fantastic.

"I understand the players well and I think being male or female, it doesn't really matter, it's how you can connect with your players and work with them individually on where they're at and what's important to them. We all know in coaching, the closer you can get to your players and understand them well, the better off you'll be in getting them to perform out in the middle."

If you want to guess how much goes on in Port Elizabeth, use today's play as your most revealing clue. With 224 runs scored and four wickets taken, you will conclude that not that much happened and you would not be wrong, on the field and off it.

This is the sleepiest of the four venues for this series, a place where life seems simpler. There's one go-to beachfront strip, one hipster neighbourhood and one team in the premier soccer league. Likewise, there's one thing to expect from the St George's Park pitch: it will be slow.

That means fielding teams need to think innovatively, especially if they have to make first use of the surface in trying conditions, as was the case today. It was the hottest day of the week, with barely a breath of wind, even though the bowling-friendly easterly was forecast, and South Africa decided an extra bowler was necessary.

Dane Paterson, who bowls in the high-130s, became the 109th player to be capped post-readmission and replaced Dwaine Pretorius, whose speeds are in the low-130s. On the face of it, it does not seem like a bad idea. Extra pace, albeit at the expense of an allrounder, could have its uses but not when used the way South Africa did today.

Paterson shared the new ball with Vernon Philander, despite the presence of out and out quicks, Kagiso Rabada and Anrich Nortje. South Africa's bowling coach Charl Langeveldt explained the decision as part of a strategy to ensure England's openers were not allowed to leave too much. "On this surface, we needed to make the new ball count and the captain and management decided we would go with Paterson because he bowls a fuller length and makes the batsmen play more," Langeveldt said.

England left 10 balls in the first eight overs, so perhaps South Africa achieved their aim but Zak Crawley admitted the decision not to use Rabada upfront surprised him. That statement should tell South Africa everything they need to know about the dangers of taking the pressure off the opposition in the opening exchanges, which should be as attritional as possible.

It also puts the spotlight on Philander and won't be amiss to go as far as to question his inclusion in the XI, considering his contribution, or lack thereof, and the conditions. Philander delivered an opening spell of four overs, in which Quinton de Kock was standing up to him, a mid-morning session of four overs and then did not bowl again until the second new ball. He was the least-used seam bowler on the day, delivering only 11 overs, but Langeveldt said team management were not expecting any more from the soon-to-be-retired seamer. "The surface doesn't suit Vern that much. It's quite slow so off the wicket batsmen can adjust. Vern is great with the new ball, but we decided to use him sparingly," Langeveldt said.

Would South Africa have got more from Pretorius, in terms of overs or impact? It's tough to say, especially because Faf du Plessis has previously explained the expectation on Pretorius is to contribute 10-15 overs a day and keep it tight and Langeveldt called Philander and Pretorius "basically two of the same". So South Africa chose one of them, and may spend the rest of this Test wondering if it was the wrong one.

The outcome of all that is that Keshav Maharaj had to put in overtime and bowled 30 overs in succession, from before lunch until before the second new ball, and two overs to close the day. Not only did Maharaj keep England quiet and allow the quicks to rotate from the Park Dive End, but he also created several chances and made the breakthrough that changed the meandering mood of the day into something more meaty. De Kock was the man who spotted that a wicket was on offer when Maharaj struck Joe Denly on the pad, just before he inside-edged the ball. De Kock was the lone voice to appeal and asked for a review; replays showed that the ball was hitting middle and off-stump.

That brought Ben Stokes to the crease, to resume a cat-and-mouse game with Maharaj that was evenly poised after the first two Tests. Maharaj dismissed Stokes in the second innings at SuperSport Park and Stokes took Maharaj on at Newlands. Here, they danced again.

Maharaj hit Stokes on the back pad and du Plessis reviewed but Stokes survived on umpire's call on the impact just outside the line and responded with a sweep through midwicket for four. In the next over Maharaj again had a review off Stokes, for a delivery that spun past the inside edge and off the pad, for what looked like a slip catch. Replays showed that there was no bat and no chance of an lbw with impact outside the line. Stokes responded with a cut for four. In the next over, Maharaj kept Stokes on the back foot and set him up for the nudge to short-leg, but the chance fell just short of Pieter Malan. Still, it showed that some parts of the South African attack are working to a plan, specifically the leg-side plan that dismissed Dom Sibley.

Du Plessis set 6-3 fields to Sibley, who showed South Africa his willingness to play the ball in the air on the onside. He did it several times in the morning session and one too many in the afternoon, when he steered a back-of-a-length Rabada ball to Dean Elgar at backward square leg.

Rabada enjoyed that wicket but not as much as his next one, the England captain Joe Root. Post-tea, after Maharaj's crucial intervention with the wicket of Denly, Rabada beat Root for pace and pegged back his off-stump. He sent Root off by screaming at the stumps, a celebration reminiscent of his performance here two years ago against Australia. Then, Rabada went full tilt against Steve Smith, with a shoulder charge that almost earned him a suspension. Then was also the last time Rabada took a five-for and the last time he seemed to get properly riled up.

Since then, Rabada has looked everything from lethargic to overworked and though he remains South Africa's most feared bowler, he has not always enjoyed the returns that come with his reputation. Even though Rabada was South Africa's leading wicket-taker in 2019, it was his Rabada's leanest full calendar year as a Test cricketer and led to questions about whether he was bowled too much, too soon, and was maybe becoming a little jaded by it all. His reaction to dismissing Root said otherwise. "KG is always looking for a scrap. It gets him fired up," Langeveldt said.

On a pitch like this, that's what South Africa need: an inspired spell from someone who can make something out of nothing. That doesn't often happen in Port Elizabeth, but the next four days could be different.

New Orleans police issue arrest warrant for OBJ

Published in Breaking News
Thursday, 16 January 2020 09:18

New Orleans police on Thursday issued an arrest warrant for Cleveland Browns wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. on a complaint of simple battery.

Video surfaced this week showing Beckham slapping the buttocks of a Superdome security guard in the LSU locker room after the Tigers' national championship victory over Clemson on Monday in New Orleans.

The New Orleans Police Department public affairs office confirmed that the security guard filed the complaint.

Louisiana statute defines simple battery as battery committed without the consent of the victim. Punishment in Louisiana can include a fine of no more than $1,000 and imprisonment for no more than six months, or both.

"We are aware of the incident and have been in touch with Odell and his representatives on the matter," the Browns said in a statement issued Thursday. "They are cooperating with the proper authorities to appropriately address the situation."

Beckham was also captured on video passing out money to several LSU players immediately after the Tigers' 42-25 victory.

The university's athletic department issued a statement Wednesday, saying it was aware of video showing "apparent cash" being given to players by Beckham and that it has been in contact with the NCAA and the Southeastern Conference regarding the matter.

"We are aware of the situation regarding Odell Beckham Jr. interacting with LSU student-athletes and others unaffiliated with the team following the championship game Monday night," the LSU statement said. "Initial information suggested bills that were exchanged were novelty bills. Information and footage reviewed since shows apparent cash may have also been given to LSU student-athletes.

"We were in contact with the NCAA and the SEC immediately upon learning of this situation in which some of our student-athletes may have been placed in a compromising position. We are working with our student-athletes, the NCAA and the SEC in order to rectify the situation."

An LSU spokesperson on Tuesday morning initially had told the Baton Rouge Advocate that the money being handed out on the field by Beckham, a former LSU star, was not real.

But on the Barstool Sports "Pardon My Take" podcast, LSU quarterback Joe Burrow said the cash was real. If the money being doled out by Beckham was real, it would be a violation of NCAA bylaws. Cash is an example of impermissible benefits that are prohibited by the governing body.

Source: AB's agent terminating relationship

Published in Breaking News
Thursday, 16 January 2020 11:06

Agent Drew Rosenhaus conditionally terminated his relationship with Antonio Brown until the free-agent wide receiver seeks counseling, an NFL Players Association source told ESPN's Adam Schefter.

Rosenhaus wrote in the letter that the NFLPA received Thursday that he would like to work with Brown, but not until he first gets help.

Additionally, attorney Darren Heitner has removed himself as counsel for Brown in a lawsuit filed in 2018 that alleges Brown caused damages to a rented condominium, per an order granting motion to withdraw filed in Miami-Dade County. The court allowed Heitner to withdraw as counsel on the landlord/tenant case that he handled until this week.

Earlier this week, after Brown's obscene outburst toward the police and the mother of his children, the Hollywood (Florida) Police Department announced that its athletic league has severed ties with the wide receiver and returned a donation from him.

Brown posted a live feed of the encounter, which also included his children, on Instagram. It was later picked up by TMZ. In it, he can be heard using explicit language and calling the police officers explicit names.

The police responded to a domestic disturbance at Brown's Hollywood residence on Monday, and Hollywood Police public information officer Christian Lata wrote in the department's statement that Brown used "very degrading language in front of his young children."

Brown, 31, wasn't on an active roster for most of the 2019 season. He was released from the Oakland Raiders after the preseason following public demands. He was active for one game with the New England Patriots but was released shortly after, amid sexual assault allegations. The former Pittsburgh Steelers star recently had a workout with the New Orleans Saints, which he later called a publicity stunt on social media.

Brown has continued to take shots at the NFL and various teams and players via social media this season, including jabs last month at former Steelers teammate JuJu Smith-Schuster and Raiders quarterback Derek Carr.

The NFL is investigating Brown after a lawsuit was filed by his former trainer, Britney Taylor, alleging that she was sexually assaulted by Brown on multiple occasions. Brown also was accused of sexual misconduct at his home by an artist who was working there in 2017.

The NFL has not concluded that investigation.

Sources: Baylor expected to hire LSU's Aranda

Published in Breaking News
Thursday, 16 January 2020 13:31

Baylor is expected to hire LSU defensive coordinator Dave Aranda as its next head coach, sources told ESPN on Thursday.

Aranda, 43, emerged as the leading candidate for Baylor's vacancy on Thursday morning. Virginia Tech coach Justin Fuente and Louisiana coach Billy Napier, who each spoke with Baylor about the job, announced Thursday that they are remaining with their schools.

Joey McGuire, who is serving as Baylor's interim head coach, also drew consideration for the permanent position. McGuire is the associate head coach and defensive ends coach.

Aranda will replace Matt Rhule, who last week left to become head coach of the Carolina Panthers. Rhule spent three seasons at Baylor; in 2019, he guided the Bears to 11 wins, a spot in the Big 12 championship game and a Sugar Bowl appearance.

Aranda has spent the past four years at LSU and helped the Tigers win the national championship on Monday against Clemson. He is the highest-paid assistant in college football, earning $2.5 million annually.

He is the second high-profile LSU assistant to leave the Tigers. Passing game coordinator Joe Brady joined Rhule as offensive coordinator for the Panthers.

Baylor will mark Aranda's first head-coaching job. He also served as defensive coordinator at Wisconsin, Utah State, Hawaii, Southern Utah, Delta State and Cal Lutheran, where he played football with current Texas coach Tom Herman.

Aranda has coached in the state of Texas twice before, first as a graduate assistant for Mike Leach at Texas Tech and then as linebackers coach at Houston for two seasons.

Mets agree to part ways with manager Beltran

Published in Breaking News
Thursday, 16 January 2020 11:59

Carlos Beltran, the only player named in MLB's investigation of the Houston Astros' sign-stealing scandal, is out as manager of the New York Mets before beginning his first season with the team, it was announced Thursday.

"We met with Carlos last night and again this morning and agreed to mutually part ways," Mets COO Jeff Wilpon and general manager Brodie Van Wagenen said in a statement Thursday. "This was not an easy decision. Considering the circumstances, it became clear to all parties that it was not in anyone's best interest for Carlos to move forward as Manager of the New York Mets.

"We believe Carlos was honest and forthcoming with us. We are confident that this will not be the final chapter in his baseball career. We remain excited about the talent on this team and are committed to reaching our goals of winning now and in the future."

Beltran is the third manager to lose his job in the fallout from the investigation. The Astros fired AJ Hinch after the report was issued, and the Boston Red Sox parted with Alex Cora after he admitted to wrongdoing while with the Astros.

"Over my 20 years in the game, I've always taken pride in being a leader and doing things the right way, and in this situation, I failed," Beltran said in a statement given to ESPN. "As a veteran player on the team, I should've recognized the severity of the issue and truly regret the actions that were taken.

"I am a man of faith and integrity and what took place did not demonstrate those characteristics that are so very important to me and my family. I'm very sorry. It's not who I am as a father, a husband, a teammate and as an educator. The Mets organization and I mutually agreed to part ways, moving forward for the greater good with no further distractions. I hope that at some point in time, I'll have the opportunity to return to this game that I love so much."

The commissioner's office did not pressure the Mets to fire Beltran, Wilpon said, telling executives it was the club's decision.

"This has been a difficult week. Make no mistake, it's been difficult for everyone involved," Van Wagenen said.

"When we met with Carlos, we had to make an assessment of, where do we go from here? And in Carlos' thought process as well as ours, we both agreed that it was going to be incredibly challenging and incredibly difficult to do the job in a way in which he intended and the way in which he could utilize the best of his abilities."

The scheme devised by the Astros involved using trash cans and video cameras to send out signals to hitters. No player received any discipline from MLB for the sign-stealing scheme, but Beltran was the only one to be named.

"Approximately two months into the 2017 season, a group of players, including Carlos Beltran, discussed that the team could improve on decoding opposing teams' signs and communicating the signs to the batter," said MLB's report, which was issued Monday.

On a later conference call, Wilpon said the team had heard in advance "from sources" that Beltran wasn't going to be suspended by MLB.

"I think the change was that when the report did come out, how prominent he was in it," Wilpon said.

The Mets signed Beltran on Nov. 1 to a three-year deal with an option for a fourth season. It was to be his first job as a major league manager.

Wilpon said the team will consider a number of internal and external candidates to be their next manager.

With spring training less than a month away, there isn't much time to pick a successor. Options could include new bench coach Hensley Meulens and ESPN analyst Eduardo Perez, who interviewed for the job last fall.

Last month, the Mets hired Meulens as bench coach and Tony DeFrancesco as first base coach to fill out Beltran's staff. Meulens, 52, was San Francisco's hitting coach from 2010-17, then was Bruce Bochy's bench coach for the past two seasons. DeFrancesco, 56, spent the last two seasons as the Mets' Triple-A manager and also interviewed for the Mets' vacancy last fall.

Beltran is not the first MLB manager to be let go before ever filling out a lineup card. In 2004, the Arizona Diamondbacks fired Wally Backman four days after he was introduced as the team's manager because of legal difficulties he did not disclose to them.

A nine-time All-Star during 20 major league seasons, Beltran finished his major league career with the Astros in 2017 and spent 2019 as an adviser to Yankees general manager Brian Cashman.

Beltran, 42, played for the Mets from 2005 to 2011. He finished his career with a .279 batting average, 435 home runs, 1,587 RBIs and 312 stolen bases for Kansas City, Houston, the Mets, San Francisco, St. Louis, the Yankees and Texas.

New York went 86-76 last season and missed the playoffs, finishing third in the NL East behind Atlanta and World Series champion Washington.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

EDGEWOOD, N.M. -- Donald Cerrone leans back in his recliner, rubs his beard and ponders a question. "The most painful thing I've ever felt?" he repeats. "Hmm ..."

Cerrone is nestled in a corner of the gym on his BMF ranch, a 40-acre training complex just outside Albuquerque, New Mexico. Cerrone -- also known as "Cowboy" -- methodically works his way through the list of possible answers. That time he tore his groin bull riding? "No, not that one," he says.

Or when he lost half of his intestines in an ATV accident? "Nah ... that was scary, though," he says.

When he almost severed his right ring finger in a wakeboarding incident? "Nope, but you can see how mangled my finger is," he says, holding up a digit and wiggling it so that it looks as if it's making a left turn to avoid the rest of his hand.

The UFC's most durable fighter -- Cerrone, 36, will break the UFC career record for most fights with his 34th bout when he steps into the cage against Conor McGregor at UFC 246 on Saturday in Las Vegas -- spends a full two minutes trying to reply to a question that most of us could answer without hesitating. MMA fighters tend to geek out about human body stories the way golfers talk club selection or offensive coordinators scribble plays on napkins. And few fighters have lived the kind of life that Cerrone has, in and out of the cage, so it makes sense that he needs some time to retrieve the perfect answer from his large injury database.

Suddenly, his eyes light up and he sits forward in his chair. "Ooh, I got it ..."

Before he can finish, Cerrone pauses and braces for Danger. Cerrone's hands drift from his beard to his groin, a move even non-cage-fighting dads recognize as survival mode when a toddler is in the vicinity. Cerrone's 18-month-old son, Dacson -- who goes by his middle name, Danger -- is closing in fast, dragging a big silver chain that clanks across the floor and announces his presence throughout the gym. He has pulled it off one of the all-terrain vehicles parked nearby and now he's hurtling toward his dad -- and the kind of shot that would get a point deduction in the UFC.

"Oof," Cerrone mutters quietly as Danger lands in his lap with a thud. Cerrone scoops up his son, chain and all, and ... what was he saying again? "Oh, the worst pain -- it's teeth, man," he says. "It's gonna surprise you to hear this, but one time I broke off a piece of my molar, and it was agonizing."

A few years ago, Cerrone explains, while he was traveling to Las Vegas to meet with UFC president Dana White about an upcoming fight -- he can't remember which one -- he bit into something that cracked off a back tooth. He thought about pulling the tooth himself, but he has never lost a tooth ... and even cage-fighting cowboys want to look good, it turns out. By the time he got to White's office, however, Cerrone couldn't take the pain anymore. "I need to get this fixed," he told White. "Right now."

White chuckled and booked an emergency dentist who saw Cerrone immediately. He got his tooth fixed and was back at his ranch the next day. It's still the only dental injury he has suffered. "I hadn't thought about that one in a while," he says. "I wouldn't wish that pain on anybody."

It's a surprising answer, considering everything he's put his body through. His toughness and resilience are the stuff of UFC legend. So on the eve of his biggest moment in MMA, we asked Cerrone to break down his own body -- and explain why he thinks it offers him a critical advantage against McGregor. "When I walk into the cage, I know the guy across from me hasn't gone through what I have," Cerrone says. "My body has been forged by fire."

His nose

Let's start with his most infamous body part. During his fight against Tony Ferguson at UFC 238 last June, Cerrone's nose was broken for what he says was at least the 20th time. The fight continued, but between rounds, Cerrone committed the cardinal sin of blowing his clogged nostrils, which caused his right eye to almost instantly swell shut.

(What caused such a dramatic reaction? If you really love the science behind snot-related issues, here's an explainer from Dr. Jeffrey Marcus, chief of Plastic, Maxillofacial and Oral Surgery at Duke Medical Center, who did not treat Cerrone: "When he blew his nose, this increased the pressure within his nose, which drives air up and through the fractures and into the eyesocket," Marcus said."This is called subcutaneous or intraorbital emphysema, meaning there is air in the soft tissues of the area surrounding the eye. Therefore, it instantly closed the eye.")

Ferguson won by second-round TKO via a doctor's stoppage. "I know better," Cerrone says. "In the moment, I just [blew it]. I shouldn't have. I don't know what else to say."

His lips

Cerrone isn't a fake cowboy. He's been riding horses most of his life. But around Christmastime in 2011, less than a week before his fight against Nate Diaz, Cowboy saddled up on a particularly jumpy steed. After he dismounted, the horse bucked and head-butted him right in the mouth, splitting both of his lips wide open. Over the next week, Cerrone limited his sparring and avoided any further damage. His cuts healed up ... just in time for Diaz's first punch to bust them open again in the first round of their Dec. 30 fight. Cerrone says the original blow from the horse, compounded by Diaz's shot, resulted in the worst cut he's ever had. Diaz won a memorable back-and-forth stand-up brawl in which Cerrone was swallowing blood almost from the time the two touched gloves. "You get used to the taste of your own blood," Cerrone says.

His ears

Cerrone didn't wrestle much growing up, but he has two cauliflower ears, gnarled billboards that reflect the 15 years or so he's spent working on his grappling. Cauliflower ear is a deformity caused by trauma to the cartilage of the ear, which causes blood to pool in the lobe. "It hurts like a son of a bitch," Cerrone says. "It's not as bad as a tooth problem, but it's close. Every time I've hurt my ears, it wasn't from a punch or kick or anything like that. It happens when you're grappling and something rubs really hard against your ear and you feel something pop."

His abdominals

In 2006, Cerrone invited some buddies to go ATV riding at an expert-level track. Even longtime friend and training partner Mike Baldwin, regarded in Cerrone's camp as a fearless wild man himself, decided the adventure sounded a little too risky. He was right: Baldwin got a call a few hours later telling him that Cerrone had wrecked his ATV and had been briefly pronounced dead at the hospital. But doctors revived him, and he woke up a few days later to find that he'd broken all 24 ribs and that surgeons had removed 12 feet of his intestines. (The average person has about 25 feet of intestines.)

Cerrone says he remembers the moments immediately after the accident -- "I was holding my innards" -- and then waking up and seeing part of his guts outside of his body, being cleaned. "There was all kinds of s--- going in and out of him," Baldwin says. "I tried not to look too close."

Cerrone made a miraculous recovery, with only a small indent on his left side and an 8-inch scar running the length of his abdomen to show for it. The one time his midsection was an issue since then was before his 2012 fight against Jeremy Stephens. Cerrone went to a local buffet and chowed down, only to feel intense stomach pain later that night. It got so acute that he went to the emergency room, where doctors discovered his intestines had "kinked up like a garden hose," he says. Cerrone was given two options: have his stomach pumped full of water to, hopefully, unkink the hose -- or surgery. With less than a week before the fight, Cerrone told them to bring on the H2O. "They filled me up with all this warm water, and five minutes later I was fine," he says. Later that week, he beat Stephens by unanimous decision.

His hands

Cerrone is one of the most prolific strikers in UFC history, and it shows on his hands. They're not quite as misshapen as you'd expect -- other than that ring finger that he almost lost on a wakeboard -- for mitts that have been broken half a dozen times each by Cerrone's count. Wild fact about all those fractures: Cerrone says that he has never broken a hand while fighting, in an actual bout or when just sparring, and that he has no lingering hand pain despite repeated fractures. "What can I say?" he asks. "I think I just have Wolverine healing power."

His shins

If there's one part of his game that Cerrone trusts more than any other, it's his kicks. He throws his tatted-up shins with abandon and says the power they generate is all natural -- he doesn't buy any of the old shin-hardening tips, like using a rolling pin over them. "Nah, I was born a kicker," he says. "If I land a leg kick anywhere, even if you block it, it's going to hurt. I could be making 67-yard field goals in the NFL right now if I wasn't a fighter."

His feet

A human foot has 26 bones, and most of Cerrone's have incurred some serious damage over the years. He estimates that he's broken one or more bones in his feet somewhere around 40 times. ("Ninety percent fighting stuff, 10 percent stupid stuff," he says.) He has broken toes during fights but nothing serious enough to limit him -- not that he'd allow that to happen, anyway. "If I broke a foot in a fight, I'd keep kicking 'til it fell off. There's a lot of money on the line, especially in this fight with Conor," he says. When he daydreams about how he'd like the fight to go, he says, he sees a tough stand-up fight but then he lands a big kick that puts McGregor out.

As he speaks, his eyes dart toward Danger, who is back and armed with some sparring gloves. Dad has his legs crossed, so Danger's first swing thwacks against Cerrone's right foot as it rests atop his left knee. "Good one," Cerrone says, and he pretends to flick a kick back at his son. Danger ducks away and avoids the contact, and Cerrone lets out a good laugh. "I hope Conor gets a good look at this foot on Saturday night."

Warriors' Evans has concussion, broken nose

Published in Basketball
Thursday, 16 January 2020 13:43

Golden State Warriors guard Jacob Evans suffered a concussion and a broken nose as a result of a collision with the Mavericks' Dwight Powell during Tuesday night's game, the team announced Thursday.

The Warriors said Evans was placed in the NBA's concussion protocol.

Evans was taken to a local hospital on Tuesday night after leaving the 124-97 loss to Dallas.

The play occurred with 4:38 remaining in the second quarter as both Evans and Powell went up to the rim to grab the ball. Powell's right elbow inadvertently came down on Evans' face, and Evans fell to the floor.

The second-year guard stayed on the floor for several minutes while being checked out by the Warriors medical staff, but appeared woozy. He eventually made his way off the floor with the help of members of the Warriors' staff.

Information from ESPN's Nick Friedell was used in this report.

LeBron maintains lead in fans' vote for All-Stars

Published in Basketball
Thursday, 16 January 2020 12:13

LeBron James maintained his hold on the top spot in the third and final round of public voting results for the 2020 NBA All-Star Game, the league announced Thursday afternoon.

The Lakers star remained ahead of emerging Dallas Mavericks star Luka Doncic and reigning NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo for the top spot in balloting with 4,747,887 total votes. Doncic (4,598,323), Antetokounmpo (4,474,107) and the Lakers' Anthony Davis (4,412,619) are the only players with more than 4 million votes.

This is the final time before the final results are announced that the league will release the vote totals. Voting will close at 11:59 p.m. on Monday night, with the All-Star starters, including the two team captains -- the starter to receive the most fan votes from each conference -- being announced on Jan. 23 on TNT.

The league will announce the reserves, who are chosen by the league's head coaches, on Jan. 30.

Milwaukee's Antetokounmpo is virtually assured of being the East's captain, as he has almost twice as many votes as Toronto's Pascal Siakam (2,433,411) among all Eastern Conference players. If James can hang on to his slim lead over Doncic, he will be the West's captain.

Fan voting accounts for 50% of the vote for the five starters -- two backcourt and three frontcourt players -- from each conference. The other 50% is split evenly among voting by media members and the players themselves.

Doncic holds the top spot among Western Conference guards, followed by Houston star James Harden (2,934,614). No other West guard has even a million votes, with Portland's Damian Lillard (984,140) third, Lakers guard Alex Caruso (894,827) fourth, Houston's Russell Westbrook (837,187) fifth and Golden State's Stephen Curry (819,352) sixth.

James and Davis lead Western Conference frontcourt players, with the Clippers' Kawhi Leonard (2,973,076) remaining in third. Leonard's teammate, Paul George, is a distant fourth with 1,171,616 votes, followed by Denver's Nikola Jokic, Portland's Carmelo Anthony and Dallas' Kristaps Porzingis.

Beyond Antetokounmpo leading the way among East frontcourt players, Siakam is fewer than 35,000 votes ahead of Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid (2,398,743) among frontcourt players, with Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler (2,046,257) in fourth. Boston Celtics teammates Jayson Tatum and rookie center Tacko Fall are fifth and sixth, respectively, with Heat center Bam Adebayo in seventh.

Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young was first among East backcourt players for a third straight week with 2,066,924 votes, followed closely by Brooklyn Nets guard Kyrie Irving (1,814,618) in second and Kemba Walker (1,797,633) in third.

Detroit Pistons guard Derrick Rose (1,381,934) is the only other East guard with over 1 million votes.

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