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Why Ndidi, not Kante, is the best ball-winner around

Published in Soccer
Wednesday, 08 January 2020 05:10

There's a long list of anti-tackling propaganda out there. The legendary, blue-eyed, Italian defender Paolo Maldini famously said: "If I have to make a tackle, I've already made a mistake." If there's an heir to Maldini's on-field elegance, it's former Spain midfielder Xabi Alonso, who added a much longer entry to the 'ball-winning-is-bad' discourse.

"I don't think tackling is a quality," Alonso told Sid Lowe back in 2011. "It is a recurso: something you have to resort to, not a characteristic of your game."

Carabao Cup semifinal:
- Watch Leicester vs. Aston Villa, 2.50 p.m. ET, ESPN+ (U.S. only)

He went on: "I can't get into my head that football development would educate tackling as a quality, something to learn, to teach, a characteristic of your play. How can that be a way of seeing the game? I just don't understand football in those terms.

"Tackling is a [last] resort, and you will need it, but it isn't a quality to aspire to, a definition."

Alonso, of course, got to play next to the kinds of players who did all the tackling for him. They'd win the ball back so Alonso could sweep it up, down and across the field with his trademark passing precision. First, it was Javier Mascherano at Liverpool, then Sami Khedira and Lassana Diarra at Real Madrid, and finally Javi Martinez and Arturo Vidal at Bayern Munich. Were he playing today, perhaps Alonso would be lucky enough to play with Wilfred Ndidi.

The 23-year-old Nigerian was purchased by Leicester City for £17 million from Belgian club Genk in December 2016, just weeks before his 20th birthday. He was brought in to replace N'Golo Kante, the two-players-in-one dynamo whom the club sold to Chelsea for around £32m the summer after their incredible Premier League triumph.

Unfortunately for Ndidi, Kante was seemingly a one-of-a-kind, irreplaceable player. In his only season with Leicester, the club improved by more than 40 points and won the title. In his first season with Chelsea, the club improved by 40 points and won the title. He's one of only two defence-oriented midfielders, along with Arsenal legend Patrick Vieira, to win the Premier League Player of the Season award. He also landed both the PFA Players' Player of the Year and FWA Footballer of the Year awards too.

No pressure, huh? Well, it has been a little more than three years since Ndidi arrived in the Midlands, and not only has he challenged Kante's claim as the best ball-winning midfielder in the world, but he's proving Alonso wrong. Tackling isn't just a quality. It's a driving force behind Leicester's rise toward the top of the Premier League.

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Brendan Rodgers insists nobody will leave Leicester in January

Despite rumours linking various players away from Leicester, Brendan Rodgers believes none of them will leave.

Want the ball? Ask Ndidi

The first two months of the season were a slog. Despite winning two, drawing two and losing one, Leicester were grinding out results in an unsustainable fashion. Per the site FBRef, they created 4.4 expected goals in the first five matches and conceded 4.6. In other words, every game was something like a coin flip. They could win any game, but they could lose any game, too -- and that isn't a recipe to break into the Top Six, let alone qualify for the Champions League.

Then something changed. Brendan Rodgers, it seems, realised that he had a weapon and finally decided to deploy it.

In the first five games of the season, Rodgers mainly played Hamza Choudhury, a perfectly capable ball-winning midfielder, alongside Ndidi and Youri Tielemans in midfield. That structure kept them in every game, for good and for ill. However, the tactical beauty of having an omnipotent ball winner player such as Ndidi in your squad is that he allows you to shove an extra attacker onto the field without losing much (if any) defensive solidity. It's why Pep Guardiola has been able to play the likes of David Silva and Kevin De Bruyne as de facto midfielders at the same time -- it's all thanks to Fernandinho. And in the age of three-man midfields, it's why Leicester won the Premier League with a midfield of Kante and Danny Drinkwater before Chelsea won the Premier League with a midfield of just Kante and Nemanja Matic.

Rodgers dropped Choudhury from the starting XI and then dropped James Maddison, a player who would've been a traditional No. 10 a decade ago, from the front three and into the midfield. Since the 1-0 loss to Manchester United in the middle of September, Leicester have won 12, drawn one and lost three. Their performances have kicked into a much higher gear, too: They've created 29.9 expected goals and conceded just 20.5. At the heart of it all, Ndidi has been an absolute machine.

Truly dominant players tend to create easily digestible stat bytes -- read every Lionel Messi article I've ever written -- and Ndidi is no different. It's simple: He has won more tackles (53) and made more interceptions (56) than any other player in the Premier League. Add up the defensive work of his midfield partners, Tielemans and Maddison, and neither their combined tackles (43) nor their interceptions (26) come close to matching Ndidi's mark. He's doing the dirty work all by himself.

However, that doesn't even do his dominance justice. Leicester average more possession than all but 13 teams across England, Italy, Spain and Germany's top flights. Part of that is because Ndidi is able to keep winning them the ball back, but that also means there are fewer opportunities for him to make defensive plays. TruMedia, though, offers defensive statistics that normalise possession for every 1,000 opponent touches. Ndidi is averaging 7.33 tackles and 4.74 interceptions per 1,000 opponent touches. Both marks are top in the four aforementioned leagues.

Want someone to go and get the ball for you? Right now, there's no one in the world better than Ndidi.

Now, he doesn't do a ton more once the ball is won, but he does just enough. He completes an above-average proportion of his passes (around 86%) and plays a central role in moving the ball into the attacking third. Among Leicester players, only Tielemans and Maddison have completed more passes into that area. Plus, with Ndidi on the field, Leicester are able to have two players in their midfield who can move the ball into the penalty area -- both Tielemans and Maddison are in the top 20 of the league in passes into the box -- in addition to three attackers in front of them. Their ceiling now is so much higher than it was back in September.

Although Leicester are second in the table, they're probably due for some regression. The three matches against Liverpool and Manchester City were a reality check. Across those three games, they generated 1.2 expected goals and conceded 9.2. Jamie Vardy is also finishing his chances at a Messi-esque rate of 14 non-penalty goals on just 8.8 expected. Through the first 21 games, Leicester have the fifth-best expected-goal differential in the league. But since they decided to let Ndidi control the middle all by himself, they've been significantly better than that.

Thanks to the financial gap between them and the 14 other clubs, the Premier League's Top Six were supposed to be unbreakable, but Ndidi & Co. have shattered that idea. With a 14-point lead over fifth-place Manchester United, they're heavy favourites to return to the Champions League next season.

Ndidi certainly belongs there. Whether it's with Leicester or some other bigger, richer team that decides it wants its own one-man midfield, he should be at the top of the game for a long, long time. For any aspiring Xabi Alonsos out there or anyone who wants to dribble a ball over the next decade, here's a scary thought: Ndidi turned 23 only a couple weeks ago.

Eoin Morgan named as Middlesex T20 captain

Published in Cricket
Wednesday, 08 January 2020 05:21

Eoin Morgan, England's white-ball captain, will take charge of Middlesex's T20 Blast campaign next season, after stepping up to the role vacated by Dawid Malan's move to Yorkshire.

Morgan, who led England to World Cup glory in last summer's final against New Zealand at Lord's, will take the reins of a side that showed signs of improvement in 2019, in reaching the quarter-finals for only the second time since their victorious campaign in 2008.

Morgan's own role in that renaissance was crucial. Returning to county cricket after his glory with England, he played with freedom and intent in racking up 341 runs in the campaign, at an average of just under 43 and with a strike rate of nearly 170.

He contributed three half-centuries in nine matches - 70 off 37 balls against Surrey at Lord's, an unbeaten 83 off 29 balls against Somerset, and 53 off 31 balls in the quarter-final defeat to Nottinghamshire.

Stuart Law, Middlesex's head coach, welcomed Morgan's commitment to the role in what will also be his testimonial year, and looked forward to his tactical acumen proving as valuable to the team as his form with the bat.

"I'm really excited to have Morgs at the helm for our T20 campaign," said Law. ""He is currently the best white-ball captain around and will offer a great deal of experience on and off the field to the team in this format.

"I can't wait to start working with him to build a squad of players to challenge in this format."

Morgan's commitment to the Blast comes in spite of his oft-repeated criticism of the competition, which he has long believed hampers England's development as a T20 power, and he is one of the leading advocates of the ECB's new tournament, the Hundred, in which he will lead the Lord's-based team, London Spirit, in the inaugural season next summer.

However, with back-to-back T20 World Cups looming for England in 2020-21 and 2021-22, Morgan is also eager to take the opportunity to hone his 20-over tactics ahead of the first of those campaigns, in Australia at the end of the year.

"I'm delighted to be awarded the T20 captaincy," Morgan said. "The role is one that I have really enjoyed.

"We've got an exciting group of players here at Middlesex, with plenty of talent and a good blend of youth and experience, and I'm really looking forward to helping the club build on the improvements we made in this format last year."

Fizdale: No 'ill feelings' toward Knicks after exit

Published in Basketball
Wednesday, 08 January 2020 05:31

NEW YORK -- One month after he was fired as head coach of the New York Knicks, David Fizdale said that he has "no ill feelings" toward the organization.

Speaking for the first time about his firing on ESPN's Golic and Wingo, Fizdale said he understood that the decision to let him go wasn't personal.

"That's the business we've chosen," Fizdale said Wednesday. "I respect those guys greatly. I miss the hell out of them. I also learned a ton from it and I was just really grateful to have that opportunity to say I was the head coach of the Knicks."

Fizdale was fired on Dec. 6 -- one day after the Nuggets routed New York by 37 points. At the time, the Knicks were on an eight-game losing streak and owned an Eastern Conference-worst record of 4-18. He was replaced by interim coach Mike Miller. New York is 6-9 since Fizdale left.

On the show, Fizdale weaved between weighing in on leaguewide topics, like the trade deadline, and reflecting on his tenure in New York. He has high praise for rookie RJ Barrett, saying, "I really think he was built for New York City."

"He is not easily rattled," Fizdale said. "His work ethic is second to none."

Fizdale still has two years remaining on his four-year, $22 million contract, league sources told ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski.

The Knicks have missed the playoffs six years in a row, which is tied for the second-longest streak in franchise history.

Wednesday morning, Fizdale said that the most challenging part of coaching at Madison Square Garden is the fans' impatience as the Knicks continue to spin their wheels in perpetual rebuild.

"It is a team that has struggled for a long time and I think fans really want to get that thing going as soon as possible," Fizdale said. "It's unique from that standpoint. There's other places you can take your time a little more and build more slowly."

Fizdale said he believes New York is on the right track and it is "just a matter of time before it comes together."

Predicting MLB trades is impossible! I believe the surgeon general issues a warning about this on the back of packs of baseball cards.

In fact, it wouldn't be shocking if I went 0-for-30 on the following list of the one player from every team most likely to be traded in 2020.

AL East

New York Yankees: Clint Frazier

Even though Aaron Hicks will still be recovering from Tommy John surgery at the start of the season, the Yankees have plenty of outfield depth with Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Brett Gardner and Mike Tauchman, who after a strong 2019 showing has surpassed Frazier on the depth chart. Tauchman is a better defender than Frazier and gives the Yankees a much-needed lefty bat. The Yankees have never exactly warmed to Frazier, and if Miguel Andujar ends up getting DH at-bats, that means Stanton in the outfield and even fewer opportunities for Frazier.

Tampa Bay Rays: Daniel Robertson

Hey, it's the Rays. Probably the only untouchable player is uber-prospect Wander Franco. The Rays have a glut of infielders, though Brandon Lowe likely will end up getting a lot of time in the outfield. If Franco is ready in the second half -- not an unrealistic possibility -- that creates even more of a logjam. Robertson had a good 2018 (.382 OBP) and a poor 2019, and he might be the odd man out.

Boston Red Sox: Mookie Betts

Betts or David Price? Maybe new GM Chaim Bloom finds a creative way to package them together as the Red Sox look to trim their payroll under the luxury tax threshold. We're looking at you, Dodgers. Note that by 2022, the Dodgers have just $16 million in salary commitments (A.J. Pollock and Kenta Maeda). They have enormous payroll flexibility, so they could easily absorb some (not all) of the $96 million owed Price over the next three seasons. Heck, they could trade for Betts and sign him to a mega-extension.

Toronto Blue Jays: Ken Giles

The Blue Jays are ... well, at least they're trying, adding Hyun-Jin Ryu, Tanner Roark and Chase Anderson to the rotation. This roster is still mostly a hot mess, however, and the Jays are unlikely to be in the playoff race come late July. Giles is a pending free agent, and if he's dominating like he did last season, he'll be shipped to a contender.

Baltimore Orioles: Mychal Givens

Hey, he's still here! Like almost every other pitcher, Givens suffered from gopher-ball-itis last season (13 home runs in 63 innings), but he has premium stuff and fanned 86 in 63 innings. In his career, he has allowed 22 home runs at Camden Yards and 12 on the road. He can help a contender as a setup guy.

AL Central

Minnesota Twins: Fernando Romero

Minnesota's offseason has been a little disappointing, as the Twins have been playing in the kiddie pool more than swimming with the sharks. Maybe they'll sign Josh Donaldson. Anyway, there aren't any obvious trade candidates on Minnesota's 40-man roster. Romero's star has fallen the past couple of seasons, and he's a change-of-scenery candidate.

Cleveland Indians: Francisco Lindor

I don't want the Indians to trade Lindor. Maybe they won't, now that the latest rumors are that the Dodgers have cooled on Lindor and turned their focus to Betts. Still, an all-in team such as the Reds is a possibility, or maybe there's a sleeper team out there. One thing is for sure: If Lindor gets traded, it will likely be before the season because the Indians are definitely good enough to make a run in the AL Central -- and you can't trade Lindor if you're in first place in late July.

Chicago White Sox: Zack Collins

With Yasmani Grandal signed through 2023, Andrew Vaughn (the No. 3 overall pick in 2019) on the fast track at first base and Edwin Encarnacion set to DH in 2020 (with Jose Abreu ready to fill that role once Vaughn reaches the majors), there is no place for Collins in the lineup. If somebody believes in Collins as a catcher, the Sox should deal him.

Kansas City Royals: Ian Kennedy

Kennedy is in the final year of that $70 million contract he signed in 2016, making $16.5 million. That wasn't the wisest of investments by the Royals, but Kennedy did have a good year in the bullpen in 2019 (3.41 ERA/2.99 FIP). He could add a veteran presence to a contender looking for bullpen help.

Detroit Tigers: Jonathan Schoop

Schoop just signed a one-year, $6.1 million deal, but that only makes him obvious trade bait at the deadline for a team that might need a second baseman. (He can even play shortstop in a pinch, like he did down the stretch for the Brewers in 2018.)

AL West

Houston Astros: Random minor leaguer

It has been a quiet offseason for the Astros, who have lost Gerrit Cole, Wade Miley and Will Harris in free agency and traded away Jake Marisnick while adding ... well, they re-signed Martin Maldonado. George Springer and Michael Brantley are both free agents after 2020, but the Astros won't be trading them. Their best trade candidate is probably somebody in the minor league system for some help at the July trade deadline.

Oakland Athletics: Jorge Mateo

Marcus Semien is a pending free agent, but with the Astros looking beatable for the first time in four years, the A's should let the season play out and see what happens -- even if it means losing Semien in free agency next offseason. Mateo was once a highly rated prospect with the Yankees, but the tools have never come together with great results. He finally hit for some power in Triple-A (thank you, Las Vegas and Super Happy Fun Ball), but he doesn't really have a role in Oakland.

Texas Rangers: Rougned Odor

The problem with having Odor on your roster is that you keep playing him, and though he hit 30 home runs last year, they came with a .205 batting average and .283 OBP. He's signed through 2022, with a 2023 team option, and he doesn't turn 26 until February. The Rangers should trade Odor and play Nick Solak at second. But would anybody want him? Odor had a .721 OPS last season. Thirteen teams had an OPS under .700 from their second basemen. Maybe somebody will want to take a chance on his youth and power.

Los Angeles Angels: Andrelton Simmons

Just throwing this out there: Signing Anthony Rendon was a coup, but there's also a good chance that the Angels still won't crack .500, given that the pitching staff remains, umm, a work in progress. Simmons is a pending free agent -- he's in the final year of a seven-year contract signed with the Braves back in February 2014 -- and if the Angels stumble, he would be a potential chip at the trade deadline.

Seattle Mariners: Kyle Seager

Seager had a terrible 2018, then suffered a hand injury in spring training in 2019, which hurt his production early in the season. He hit .260/.339/.524 in the second half, however, with 17 home runs in 68 games. One of the teams that loses out on Donaldson -- the Nationals, Braves and Twins appear to be the top contenders -- could turn to Seager, though the Mariners would have to eat a portion of what remains on his contract ($19 million in 2020, $18 million in 2021 and a $15 million player option for 2022 that kicks in if he's traded).

NL East

Atlanta Braves: Kyle Wright

The fifth overall pick in the 2017 draft, Wright reached the majors for cameos in 2018 and 2019 but has flatlined as a prospect, and scouts believe his stuff has regressed a bit since he was drafted. He's still an intriguing arm, given his pedigree, but if the Braves are looking to upgrade somewhere -- say, third base -- Wright could be a trade option.

Washington Nationals: Tim Cate

The Nationals just signed Will Harris, a terrific addition to the bullpen, but they could still use depth in the pen and a third baseman to replace Anthony Rendon. Cate, the team's second-round pick in 2018 out of UConn, is a 6-foot lefty with a big curveball who had a strong season in Class A in 2019, making him attractive trade bait.

New York Mets: Jed Lowrie

Lowrie will have to prove he's healthy after getting just eight at-bats last season, and the Mets might have to eat some of the $10 million he's owed for 2020, but given that Lowrie averaged 4.4 WAR in 2017 and '18, he would make for an interesting gamble for a team looking to add at second or third base.

Philadelphia Phillies: Jhailyn Ortiz

Is it just me, or is this kind of a weird hodgepodge of a roster? Who plays center field? Is Scott Kingery the third baseman or a super-utility guy? Is Didi Gregorius really a better defensive shortstop than Jean Segura? They have a million relievers, but which of them will be healthy and good in 2020? Anyway, I suspect somebody from the minor league system is most likely to be traded. Ortiz has huge raw power and hit 19 home runs in the Florida State League, but he also hit .200 and struck out 149 times in 115 games.

Miami Marlins: Jonathan Villar

As is the case with the Tigers and Schoop, Villar's one-year contract will make him attractive trade bait in July, especially if he performs like he did for the Orioles in 2019 (.274/.339/.453, 24 home runs, 40 stolen bases).

NL Central

St. Louis Cardinals: Jose Martinez

With top prospect Dylan Carlson knocking on the door to the major leagues and Randy Arozarena an intriguing prospect after posting a 1.003 OPS between Double-A and Triple-A, Martinez might be scrounging for playing time come midseason, especially given his defensive liabilities. He is due to make $4 million each of the next two seasons, so maybe an AL team can use him as a DH/bench player or a contender will pick him up as depth insurance.

Milwaukee Brewers: Josh Hader

This is more of an "if everything goes wrong" scenario in which the Brewers are 10 games under .500 on July 22 and decide to move Hader for prospects. Of course, if everything goes wrong, that might include Hader struggling or getting injured. If everything goes right, however, the Brewers will look to add at the trade deadline, and that means trading from what appears to be a very thin farm system.

Chicago Cubs: Kris Bryant

The rumors won't die.

Cincinnati Reds: Nick Senzel

With the addition of center fielder Shogo Akiyama from Japan, the Reds have 11 outfielders on their 40-man roster -- and reportedly are one of the clubs interested in free agent Marcell Ozuna. The outfielders who matter most are Jesse Winker, Aristides Aquino, Akiyama and Senzel. If the Reds sign Ozuna, perhaps Senzel becomes the centerpiece of a Lindor trade with Cleveland.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Joe Musgrove

Musgrove went 11-12 with a 4.44 ERA for the Pirates, with a solid 3.82 FIP and just 39 walks in 170⅓ innings. As Buster Olney wrote the other day, "The value of young pitchers has skyrocketed, to the degree that one executive mused over what the asking price in trade will be" for Musgrove, who will make about $3.5 million this season and has another year of team control in 2021.

NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers: Keibert Ruiz

Indians fans would love to see Gavin Lux here as the payment for a Lindor trade, but the Dodgers aren't trading a player who has Lindor-like potential at the plate. Maybe Joc Pederson goes in a Betts trade. If the Dodgers make a big deal, however, Ruiz, one of the best catching prospects in the minors, is a strong candidate to go. Will Smith emerged as the team's starting catcher for 2020, and the Dodgers still have plenty of catching depth in the minors behind Ruiz, with the likes of Diego Cartaya and Connor Wong.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Robbie Ray

Coming off an 85-win season, the D-backs have constructed an interesting roster, and I'd love for them to keep Ray and roll the dice. No doubt catching the Dodgers will take a lot of breaks, but the D-backs should be strong wild-card contenders. Maybe they'll end up holding on to Ray, but given that he'll be a free agent, his name will remain front-and-center in trade rumors.

San Francisco Giants: Jeff Samardzija

Samardzija quietly had a pretty good season in 2019 (11-12, 3.52 ERA, 2.9 WAR). The strikeout rate wasn't great, and he served up 28 home runs in 181⅓ innings -- plus, his $19.8 million salary is prohibitive -- but he's an innings-eater, and those guys have value. He's in the final year of his deal, and if the Giants eat some of the salary, he could be a back-end addition to somebody's rotation -- now or in July.

Colorado Rockies: Nolan Arenado

The smoke around the Arenado trade rumors appears significant enough to include him here. A pairing with the Braves makes sense, as Atlanta has what the Rockies need: a young center fielder in Cristian Pache and pitching depth in the minors. Is a trade likely? Colorado is extremely cautious, so I would bet against it, but the Rockies don't seem to be shutting down the rumors.

San Diego Padres: Kirby Yates

This is a similar scenario to Hader and the Brewers, except Yates is a free agent at season's end. That makes him an even more likely trade candidate if the Padres fall out of the race, especially if he posts his 2019 numbers again: 60⅔ IP, 41 H, 2 HR, 13 BB, 101 K.

Marathon training can reduce vascular age, says study

Published in Athletics
Wednesday, 08 January 2020 06:06

The cardiovascular benefits of running have been highlighted following research into training for a debut marathon

Training for and completing a marathon causes cardiovascular benefits equivalent to around a four-year reduction in vascular age, a new study suggests.

The health benefits of running have further been highlighted following the research into training for a debut marathon, with findings published in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology.

A group of 138 first-time marathoners were assessed by Barts Heart Centre and University College London following their journey of training for and completing the London Marathon. The purpose of the study was to determine whether real-world exercise training for a first-time marathon could reverse age-related aortic stiffening.

The study concluded that training for and completing a marathon, even at relatively low exercise intensity, reduces central blood pressure and aortic stiffness. The group of novice runners were aged between 21 and 69 years and had an estimated training schedule of 6 to 13 miles per week.

“Greater rejuvenation was observed in older, slower individuals,” added the study’s conclusion.

AW MD Wendy Sly, who claimed Olympic 3000m silver at the 1984 Games in Los Angeles, is training for her first marathon in London in April and told Sky News: “Running a marathon or a half-marathon gives you a goal, so I think there’s a very good target for people who are trying to get fit. It puts you into a forced regime, almost, because you know that you have committed to do something in the future.

“We know generally that running is very good for you, for your heart and lungs, for your weight, for mental reasons and feeling good about yourself, plus it’s good for your bones and your muscles. So there’s nothing bad to really be said about it.”

The study is available here.

Henry Taylor: Northampton Saints scrum-half signs new deal

Published in Rugby
Wednesday, 08 January 2020 03:19

Northampton Saints scrum-half Henry Taylor has signed a new undisclosed-length deal with the Premiership club.

The 25-year-old joined from Premiership champions Saracens in April and has made 10 appearances this season.

Taylor represented England at under-20 level, and has a degree in fine art and is a classically trained pianist.

"I have every faith Henry will remain an important part of this squad over the next few seasons," said Saints director of rugby Chris Boyd.

Midseason fixes for NHL teams in the playoff hunt

Published in Hockey
Tuesday, 07 January 2020 11:41

With each team having passed the 41-game mark, we've reached the midseason point of the 2019-20 NHL season. While most clubs typically treat the trade deadline as the key point on the schedule for self-reflection and tough personnel decisions, some teams can't afford to wait until then.

Given how tightly packed the standings are thanks to the number of loser points being handed out on a nightly basis, there's an opportunity cost in procrastinating until the Feb. 24 deadline. Each passing day makes it that much more difficult to gain ground in the standings, meaning even more value for shrewd general managers who are proactive when it comes to identifying and addressing their team's current flaws.

Let's help out a handful of these teams with some recommendations on how best to proceed in the short term to generate an impact down the stretch. But we'll begin by breaking down a team that has already seen that kind of impact thanks to an in-season coaching change.


How the Maple Leafs got their swagger back

The turnaround that the Toronto Maple Leafs have made since making a difficult, yet necessary, change of their own is living proof of the power of a midseason fix. At the time they decided to pull the parachute in an attempt to save their season, they were a miserable 9-10-4, with a minus-7 goal differential, and ahead of only the lowly Detroit Red Wings when it came to how often they held a lead in their games.

Since replacing Mike Babcock with Sheldon Keefe behind the bench, the results have been night and day:

  • 15 wins (first in the NHL)

  • .738 point percentage (first)

  • plus-26 goal differential (first)

  • Held lead for 50.4% of total game time (first)

While the results have undoubtedly been tremendous, the process has been just as important when it comes to sustaining that success. Under Babcock, the Leafs had allowed their recent postseason failures to seep into their playing style, undoing what made them effective in the first place.

The biggest change Keefe has made in his short time with the team is a rather simple one: He's enabled his best players to play to their strengths, using the personnel he was given in the way it was originally intended when GM Kyle Dubas put the team together.

The Leafs are once again playing fast, using their speed to attack off the rush, which is when they're at their most devastating offensively. When there's nothing there, they're able to pass it back and reload even if it means surrendering territory for the time being. It's a play that's more common in soccer than it is in hockey, but it makes sense intuitively because it allows you to keep possession of the puck in the pursuit of doing something more productive with it. It's also a complete 180 from what they were instructed to do under Babcock, when they were routinely opting for the safe play by dumping it in and chasing after it.

It's no coincidence that the new coach has also gotten the most out of his best player, finally unleashing Auston Matthews by using him the way a scorer of his esteemed caliber should be used. The training wheels are finally off Matthews now, with his usage up significantly after years of wondering why he was being handled with such kid gloves by Babcock.

Not only are Matthews, Mitch Marner and John Tavares all playing more under Keefe, but the Leafs have done an excellent job of experimenting with all sorts of different ways to get them out there in advantageous situations. Whether it's pairing up Matthews and Marner at even strength or keeping them all out there for the full extent of power plays and alternating only defensemen, things like that go a long way when the margin between winning and losing is so thin in certain games.

The most important development in Toronto is that the Leafs have clearly gotten back to building their game plan around what their best players do best, and it's immediately made them a frightening offensive juggernaut again after that bizarre hiccup to start the season. It might not seem like a big thing, but it just goes to illustrate the impact small adjustments can make when it comes to roster optimization.

That's the most recent example of a success story, but it's hardly the only way a team can give itself a much-needed face-lift. Whether it's through a coaching change, a trade to fill a glaring hole on the depth chart, or an adjustment to the allocation of minutes to existing players, there are any number of ways a team can improve its performance by removing its weak link.

Let's take a closer at some other teams that could similarly benefit from a quick fix that's doable, and highlight what it would look like exactly in their respective cases.


Nashville Predators

The fix: Better forward deployment, and something from the goalies.

In an act of perfect timing with regard to this exercise, the Predators just made what they hope will be the change they needed to save their season, hiring John Hynes to replace Peter Laviolette behind the bench. There's certainly some logic behind the move. There's an irreconcilable difference between the level of talent on the roster and the team's results thus far, and whenever that happens the attention usually shifts to the coach.

On the one hand, Laviolette certainly isn't blameless. While we don't know how much there is to the idea that his message had grown stale and that he'd lost the room, there are other quantifiable things we can point to as areas where he fell short.

The most glaring is the usage of the team's forwards, in which there's very little difference between how many minutes his top and bottom lines were playing. One area where Hynes can make an instant impact is by simply handing over the keys to his most skilled players and relying far less on the likes of Colton Sissons and Austin Watson.

What throws a monkey wrench into all of this is that it's not necessarily a foregone conclusion that a new voice is going to lead to a tangible change in results -- unless the Predators' goalies remember how to stop a puck at some point in the immediate future. We know how inextricably linked a goalie's performance is with his team's outlook, but it's quite jarring to see how much of a role it's played in the fate of coaches around the league this season. Here's the list of the five worst in team save percentage for the season:

31. Detroit Red Wings
30. Los Angeles Kings
29. San Jose Sharks
28. Nashville Predators
27. New Jersey Devils

Of these five teams, three of them have made in-season coaching changes. The other two never had any delusions about being good this season, and they're perfectly content with losing at the moment (not to mention that the Kings just hired their coach this summer, buying him more time anyway).

To put it bluntly, the Predators need Pekka Rinne and Juuse Saros to be a whole lot better than they've been to date. Among 59 qualified goalies this season, they're 54th and 55th, respectively, in goals saved above average, combining to cost Nashville nearly 18 goals against more than we would've expected a league-average netminder to surrender under the same workload.

All of Nashville's other underlying numbers suggest that the Predators a team that should be winning a lot more games. They're a top-10 team in essentially every underlying 5-on-5 performance metric, from shot share to high-danger chance share to expected goals. But none of it will matter unless they can start getting saves more reliably. Hynes is stepping into a situation with which he's all too familiar, given what happened at his previous stop. The good news is that the track record of Rinne and Saros is significantly better than what he had to work with in New Jersey, which should present reason for optimism.


Chicago Blackhawks

The fix: Trade deadline market-maker.

The Blackhawks don't technically fit the description of a team in the hunt, because they're not likely to make much of a run this season. They're right there with the New York Rangers as one of the most hapless teams in the league defensively, and if it weren't for herculean goaltending (particularly from Robin Lehner) they'd be even closer to the bottom of the standings than they already are.

The reason they're on this list despite that is because they're still uniquely positioned to play a supporting role in the playoff race around the trade deadline. In the obvious sense, they have two goalies on expiring deals who should draw plenty of interest from any number of teams that aren't confident in what they already have at the position.

Lehner is incredibly fascinating, because he's been every bit as good as he was last season, despite finding himself in a significantly less forgiving defensive environment. It remains to be seen whether the Blackhawks see him as a future building block or a one-year rental they'll cash in ahead of the deadline, but the potential return for him -- given the possible effect he would have on a playoff team's outlook -- could be too good for Chicago to pass up.

From a more subtle perspective, the Blackhawks suddenly find themselves in a spot where they can play the role of a third-party facilitator in trades after shutting Brent Seabrook and Calvin de Haan for the season. They can't take on any tangible future money at the moment because those two salaries will come back on the books at the end of the campaign, but what they can do is help contenders open up salary-cap space by freeing them of bad expiring money in exchange for some kind of sweetener.

It's not the easiest exercise to find a willing trade partner who checks all of those boxes, because most sizeable contracts come in the form of contributing players a contender presumably wouldn't want to pay to jettison, but there are three that fit the bill:

1. The Vegas Golden Knights are up against it financially at the moment, but if they want to upgrade their team somewhere, dumping the cap hits of Cody Eakin ($3.85 million) and Nick Holden ($2.2 million) would go a long toward creating the room to do so.

2. The Maple Leafs don't have much financial flexibility given how top-heavy their roster is, but if the opportunity presented itself, shedding Cody Ceci's $4.5 million price tag seems like the most logical starting point. After starting the season on the top pair under Babcock, his role has significantly changed under Keefe as the team's system has changed. He's gone from playing 22 minutes, 5 seconds overall and 17:54 at 5-on-5 per game under Babcock to just 20:01 and 16:39, respectively, under Keefe, being eclipsed by Justin Holl on the depth chart.

3. The case for the Buffalo Sabres is more flimsy because you could fairly argue that they shouldn't be trading future assets to improve their team in the short term, given their current place in the Atlantic Division hierarchy. But if they keep hanging around and decide that it's worth it to make a valiant effort to throw Jack Eichel a bone and play meaningful hockey into the spring for the first time in ages, finding someone to take Zach Bogosian's $5.14 million expiring contract off their hands could be handy.


Winnipeg Jets

The fix: Find some D help on the cheap.

We've seemingly written about the Jets ad nauseam already this season, but it's largely because they've done an admirable job of beating the odds by staying afloat after a widespread blue-line talent exodus last summer. Without sugarcoating it, as currently constructed their defensive corps is best described as a patchwork group that's being held together loosely by duct tape and bandages.

Unless something changes, it'll eventually fall apart and crumble around them, and we've already started to see the first signs of that over the past couple of weeks as goaltender Connor Hellebuyck has started to look human. He's still having a remarkable season in totality, but his performance in December started to show some holes in the armor, and the team started taking on water as a result.

The good news is that the Jets find themselves in a wild-card spot at the moment, and while there are a number of other teams in the mix for a small number of available positions, they all have noticeable flaws of their own. With the combination of Hellebuyck and a number of game-breaking talents up front, the Jets should continue to be in the mix the rest of the way.

The most obvious upgrades can be made on the blue line, although the current state of the rental market at the position complicates matters. The biggest names -- Alex Pietrangelo, Torey Krug, Tyson Barrie -- are all currently on contending teams that won't be moving them at the deadline, which limits the available options who could realistically make a difference.

That said, that might not ultimately matter for the Jets. After investing premium draft capital in rentals such as Paul Stastny and Kevin Hayes in recent seasons, they'd presumably be cautious about doing so again even if there were big names available. Especially considering this current incarnation's underlying numbers, which are much closer to that of a bubble team than one that's just one piece away.

The silver lining is that the bar the Jets need to clear to improve their defense is as low as it gets, making the goal of upgrading it a perfectly attainable one. They currently have players such as Luca Sbisa and Anthony Bitetto eating up valuable minutes regularly, so replacing them on the cheap shouldn't be too difficult. Unless Dustin Byfuglien finally walks through the door and resembles his old self, the Jets likely aren't significantly making over their blue line this season. But in their case, a half-measure -- at a reasonable price -- actually makes a fair bit of sense.


Buffalo Sabres, New York Islanders

The fix: Find some scoring help!

It's not necessarily a new development to suggest that both of these teams need more offensive playmaking talent, but it's becoming unavoidable at this point.

For the Islanders, they've done a remarkable job of compensating for it over the past year and a half in various ways and from various sources. But it's really caught up to them of late, and there's a limit to how far their splendid goaltending and team defense can take them if they can't clear a certain bar of respectability offensively.

Here's how they stack up as a team since Dec. 1:

  • 24th in 5-on-5 goals for

  • 26th in 5-on-5 expected goals for

  • 25th in all situations goals for

  • 31st in all situations expected goals for

The good news is that if there's one archetype of player with which the rental market is flush on an annual basis, it's scoring at the wing position. Tyler Toffoli makes a ton of sense, both in terms of fit and reasonable acquisition cost. Kyle Palmieri is going to be pricier, but he's also a superior player, has an extra year of control on his deal, and should be on his way out of New Jersey given its contention timeline following the Taylor Hall trade. Since Isles GM Lou Lamoriello has seemingly been reluctant to invest heavily in rentals, Palmieri would make an awful lot of sense from the perspective of going for it not only this season, but next season as well. He'd also look quite good as a triggerman on the receiving end of passes from Mathew Barzal.

For the Sabres, the acquisition of Michael Frolik certainly shouldn't hurt, but it's also not nearly enough given the starting point. He's been a subtly excellent possession player over the course of his career, but even when he was at his best, he was never a particularly proficient scorer. Having players who constantly hover around the puck is never a bad thing, particularly for a team like the Sabres who aren't especially deep with above-average players up front. But at this point, they need someone who can help put the puck into the net, especially with Victor Olofsson out for five to six weeks.

Jack Eichel has been an absolute rockstar this season, putting the team on his back and carrying it as far as humanly possible. He's factored into 43.7% of Buffalo's total goals scored this season, and has directly created exactly one-third of them himself.

With Eichel on the ice, the Sabres have scored 39 goals in 675 5-on-5 minutes and 75 goals in 921 total minutes. Without Eichel on the ice, the Sabres have scored 46 goals in nearly 1,400 5-on-5 minutes and 51 goals in 1,690 total minutes. The fact that they've scored nearly the same amount of goals in half the time with him on the ice says a lot about all parties involved.

As superhuman as he's been, Eichel can't be on the ice at all times. So as good as he's been while out there, it ultimately doesn't matter if the Sabres are going to continue to be such a black hole offensively whenever he's not. Get this man some help!

Sources: Man United consider Van de Beek move

Published in Soccer
Wednesday, 08 January 2020 00:59

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is considering a January move for Ajax midfielder Donny van de Beek, sources have told ESPN, with the Norwegian pushing executive vice-chairman Ed Woodward to secure reinforcements for his Manchester United squad this month.

Solskjaer has been given the green light to make signings during the transfer window, but the United manager admitted after Tuesday's 3-1 Carabao Cup semifinal first-leg defeat against Manchester City that "if it isn't the right thing, we won't do anything" due to the club's determination to avoid repeating the recruitment mistakes of recent seasons.

- When does the transfer window reopen?
- All major completed transfer deals

But after pulling out of attempts to sign teenage striker Erling Haaland from FC Salzburg last month because of demands by the player's representatives -- Haaland subsequently signed for Borussia Dortmund -- United and Solskjaer believe a deal could be done for Van de Beek this month as a result of Ajax failing to qualify for the Champions League group stages.

The 22-year-old Netherlands international, who was a key figure in Ajax's run to last season's Champions League semifinals, is valued in excess of £50 million by the Dutch champions.

But the loss of potential prize money from playing in the Champions League knockout stages has made Ajax vulnerable to offers for their star players from wealthier clubs in Europe's major leagues.

United have made an attacking midfielder a priority target this summer, along with a right-sided midfielder, and Van de Beek is regarded by the club's scouting team as possessing the necessary quality to improve the team, but also a player with the potential to grow and develop at Old Trafford.

Van de Beek's ability to contribute goals from midfield -- he has scored 8 in 26 games this season for Ajax -- is another element of his game that has seen him emerge as a United target.

Solskjaer is also an admirer of Ajax winger Hakim Ziyech, but Van de Beek is ahead of the 26-year-old Morocco international on United's hit-list due to the club's need to strengthen in midfield.

Isuru Udana ruled out of third T20I against India

Published in Cricket
Wednesday, 08 January 2020 02:49

Sri Lanka allrounder Isuru Udana has been sidelined from the team's must-win third T20I against India in Pune on Friday with a back injury. The 31-year had injured himself during India's chase in the second T20I on Tuesday night, while attempting to stop the ball at short third man. Udana immediately hobbled off the field and did not return to take the ball.

Udana's injury depleted Sri Lanka's attack although Dasun Shanaka stepped in and bowled four tidy overs, giving up 26 runs. India eventually chased down the target of 143 with seven wickets and 15 balls to spare, handing Sri Lanka their fourth successive defeat in the format. India are now 1-0 up in the three-match series, with the first T20I in Guwahati having been abandoned without a ball being bowled.

After the loss in Indore, Sri Lanka coach Mickey Arthur said that Udana had hurt his back and was in "hell a lot of pain." Despite being ruled out, Udana will work with the physio and stay back with the squad in Pune.

Players demand full picture on four-day Tests

Published in Cricket
Wednesday, 08 January 2020 04:17

Widespread opposition to four-day Tests among the current generation of international cricketers has little chance of abating unless the ICC and member boards provide far greater details as to how the move would fit within future plans for the global game.

England's vice-captain Ben Stokes, India's captain Virat Kohli and Australia's captain Tim Paine have been the loudest voices in opposition to a prospective move to four-day matches in the World Test Championship from 2023, which, as first revealed by ESPNcricinfo, is currently under serious consideration by member boards and is set to be tabled for the ICC's cricket committee later this year.

ALSO READ: 'This is why five-day Test cricket should always be around'

But away from the rhetoric about "real cricket" in the words of Ian Botham or reference to four-day matches as "easy cricket" according to Stokes, the executive chairman of the Federation of International Cricketers Associations, the players' global body, Tony Irish has articulated that the only way this opposition has a chance of dissipating is if the players are brought into the fold to discuss how a move to four-day Tests would do more than simply free up days in the calendar in the cycle from 2023 to 2031.

"We continue to follow this issue closely and understand that discussions are taking place at various levels on this," Irish said in a FICA release. "From our discussions with players around the world, and our global survey data, it is clear that there is currently a lot of negative sentiment, within the global collective of players, towards such a significant change to the game's most traditional format.

"Given the obvious cricketing implications, if the ICC and/or Boards do want to make a broader case for 4-day Test cricket, we would need to clearly understand what both the economic and scheduling benefits would be, so we can discuss that with players and gauge genuine collective feedback. It is particularly important for us, and the players, to understand how any additional calendar space in the playing schedule would be used."

ALSO READ: Root, Lyon, Philander - what the players think about four-day Test cricket

Irish, who recently took up the role as head of the professional cricketers association in England in addition to his FICA role, stressed that Test cricket's success and endurance has long been rooted in the fundamental belief of the players that it is the ultimate for the game. As such, they will look at any mooted changes to the format most carefully.

"Making a fundamental change simply in order to provide calendar space to fill with additional or meaningless cricket is clearly not something we can support," Irish said. "Cricket's global structure desperately needs clarity, rather than further confusion.

"Until such a time as we and the players are provided with the full picture and compelling reasons for change, we remain supportive of 5-day Test cricket, and would expect significant player resistance if a shift to that is imposed on players by the ICC and/or Boards. Test cricket is a cherished format of the game and it needs player support and buy in to survive. We urge those making decisions to understand that."

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