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There's lots to talk about in this week's Monday Musings following a wild weekend. Gab Marcotti is here to recap the big stories around soccer.

Jump to: No crisis yet for Man City | End of Bayern's dominance? | Fati masks Barca's issues | Juventus get lucky | Neymar gets rude welcome | Arsenal woe continues | | Neville harsh on Man United? | Chelsea's youth movement | Dortmund ready for Barca | Odegaard dazzling for Sociedad | Why Firmino's so special | Conte, Inter keep winning | The sad story of #BlueGirl

Sky isn't falling for Man City despite Norwich shock

One of the more odd decisions this past summer was Manchester City not replacing Vincent Kompany. "Replace" is perhaps too strong a word. You can't "replace" him but you can bring in another live body to give offer you an alternative at centre-back and provide some competition for John Stones and Nicolas Otamendi.

- Ogden: Man City might regret inspiring Liverpool
- Miller: Have Norwich shown the league how to beat City?
- ESPN's Ultimate XI: This team would win everything

Many of us pointed this out but hey, it's Pep Guardiola, so you naturally offer the benefit of the doubt. He must know something we don't. Maybe Fernandinho (at 34) can fill in too. Maybe Eric Garcia is ready. Maybe Kyle Walker can slide across. Maybe Aymeric Laporte is Iron Man and will never get injured. (Oops: we already know that's not the case.)

It's not that Otamendi and Stones are bad defenders, it's that the way City play can leave them vulnerable, which is pretty much what happened against Norwich in their 3-2 defeat. There's a price you pay for choosing to play a certain way and evidently, for City it's one worth paying. The problem is this is a low-scoring sport. Scoring goals is difficult and ideally, you want to make conceding them as difficult as possible for the opposition. With those two back there and this set up, it's that much easier for them.

Updated Luck Index: Man City continue to be unfortunate

No, the sky isn't falling. Even in this game, Man City could have grabbed the three points with a bit more luck. Nor will they always face someone as motivated and as intense as Daniel Farke's crew who, severely depleted by injuries, went all out with nothing to lose. But the reality is that the gap separating them from Liverpool is already at five points, and the last time that happened was back in January.

Is time running out on Bayern's Bundesliga dynasty?

Is this the year someone in the Bundesliga topples Galactus (read: Bayern)?

Leipzig had their audition on Saturday, holding the champions to a 1-1 draw. The result keeps Julian Nagelsmann's crew top of the league with Bayern fourth, two points back. But other than the usual drive and running you'd expect from Leipzig -- and, after the break, the character that wasn't always there last season -- I'm not sure we quite saw enough to predict they'll prevail over the marathon that is a whole season.

In fact, a lot of it had to do with Bayern's deficiencies. Having gone ahead early thanks to the age-old Thomas Mueller-Robert Lewandowski connection, they failed to capitalise on their lead despite having the upper hand for much of the first half. Joshua Kimmich in central midfield alongside Thiago Alcantara gave them a bit more control against the press, but they were sterile in the final third. Leipzig deserved their equalizer after a bad error from Lucas Hernandez (the sort that prompts you to say "He cost how much?") and while late chances meant it could have gone either way, there wasn't too much separating these two.

The difference? Well, you try to imagine how they can get better and you can see far bigger margins for growth at the Bayern end. Nagelsmann can conjure up some more tactical voodoo, Emil Forsberg might last 90 minutes, Kevin Kampl might be fit again and maybe they'll get something out of Patrik Schick. But it's slim pickings.

As for Bayern, Nico Kovac lost David Alaba to injury in the warm-up. But he still has Philippe Coutinho, who only came on with two minutes to go, and Ivan Perisic, who stayed rooted to the bench: presumably both were signed for a reason. The question, really, is how much faith you have in Kovac.

Fabulous Fati obscures Barca's issues

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Ansu Fati a 'refreshing' addition to Barcelona

ESPN FC's Julien Laurens weighs in on 16 year old Ansu Fati's impact at Barcelona so far with two goals in his first three matches.

Ansu Fati, already the third youngest goalscorer in the history of La Liga, got his first start for Barcelona on Saturday against Valencia and set the Camp Nou alight inside 10 minutes. He scored with a confident, accurate finish, set up a goal for Frenkie de Jong and came close to scoring two more times. Oh yeah, in case you didn't know, the kid doesn't turn 17 until Halloween.

His emergence, and that of Carles Perez, mean that Lionel Messi (who was in the stands) and Luis Suarez (who came on and scored twice) can come back into the team in their own time. But equally, despite the gaudy scoreline (5-2) and the excitement over Fati, there is still plenty for Ernesto Valverde to work on.

Valencia are a mess right now (thanks, Peter Lim!) having sacked Marcelino and replaced him with Albert Celades. And they still stayed in the game thanks to Kevin Gameiro, falling apart only after Jasper Cillessen's mistake for the third Barca goal. Suarez, looking sharp and hungry (no, not in that way), later added two to put the game out of reach.

Defensively, Barca looked far from solid, not just at the back but also in midfield; the fact that it was the first choice trio of De Jong, Arthur and Sergio Busquets doesn't bode well.

Juventus get lucky vs. Fiorentina

There's a ton of ancient bad blood between Fiorentina and Juventus. Throw in the enthusiasm that new owner Rocco Commisso has engendered within the Viola organization, the fact that it was Maurizio Sarri's official post-pneumonia debut and especially the fact that the visitors lost Douglas Costa, Miralem Pjanic and Danilo through injury during the match (and the first two are especially key to the way they play) and perhaps Juve should be happy with a point.

Why? They were poor for much of the game against an opponent who treats the match as if it was the Champions League final and Avengers: Endgame rolled into one. Sarri later blamed the heat of a mid-afternoon kickoff, which is a bit hard to stomach since presumably Fiorentina felt just as hot. It might have been better to just take it on the chin, be grateful for the point and move on.

PSG fans will take time to welcome Neymar back

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Laurens: Neymar reminded everyone he's a genius

ESPN FC's Julien Laurens speaks to Neymar's talent and ability to rise to the occasion following his game winner against Strasbourg,

Neymar made his first appearance of the season for Paris Saint-Germain at the weekend and was greeted, predictably, with boos and insults. It's what you expect when, after pledging your loyalty to the club, you go out of your way to force a move back to Barcelona. So what did he do? Easy, he scored a "worldie" deep in injury time to secure the three points against Strasbourg.

- Laurens: The definitive story of the Neymar saga

"I expected it, but in the end I forced them to applaud," he said afterwards adding that every game will now feel like an away match.

He made his bed, he can lie in it now and won't get much sympathy. But at the very least, he deserves recognition for the professionalism he showed Saturday. Whether he'll ever get love from the Ultras given what happened is unclear but that doesn't mean they can't reach some mutually beneficial relationship.

What's obvious is that if you're Thomas Tuchel, you're glad he's back.

Arsenal's issues are self-inflicted

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Hislop: Arsenal are spineless and have no leadership

Shaka Hislop slams Unai Emery for his lack of leadership and Arsenal for their calamitous play out of the back in their draw against Watford.

The statistics say Arsenal conceded 23 shots on goal in the second-half against Watford on Sunday. That's one every two minutes and it's frankly hard to do. It's especially tough when you go in at half-time with a two-goal lead, one which, based on what we saw in the first half, was likely more than generous. And yes, they ended up settling for a 2-2 draw.

You can focus on individuals -- Matteo Guendouzi, Sokratis Papasthatopoulos, David Luiz -- all you like and there's another statistic floating around that says that since the start of last season no team has made more errors leading directly to opposition goals than Arsenal. But this is a team issue.

If you have error-prone players, you design tactical systems that protect them and don't expose them. That's just basic. And that's on Unai Emery.

Real nearly throw it away before PSG trip

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Moreno: Real Madrid playing with a mindset of fear

Alejandro Moreno says that Real Madrid displayed their excellent ability along with their fragility in their nail-biting 3-2 win against Levante.

It's a sign of Real Madrid's current state that even after playing well, creating plenty of chances and racing to a 3-0 lead at home to Levante, they still required a last-ditch save from Thibaut Courtois to retain their three points. In the cold light of day, you'd look at this performance, note Madrid's domination, the fact that the goals conceded were against the run of play and chalk up the 3-2 scoreline to the randomness of football. And you might even celebrate Eden Hazard's debut and look forward to what is next.

Instead, it's all fraught nerves ahead of the trip to the Parc des Princes to face Paris Saint-Germain in midweek. Context matters, possibly because we're in mid-September and we have no real idea what Zinedine Zidane has in mind.

Neville a bit harsh on Man United?

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Manchester United are now a 'grind it out team'

Alejandro Moreno feels the current version of Manchester United can only grind out wins and doesn't intimidate other Premier League sides.

Manchester United squeezed out a victory over Leicester City, but I was struck by Gary Neville's comments suggesting Ole Gunnar Solskjaer should get at least three more transfer windows "to clean up the trash in the dressing room, because there is trash in there."

I have a lot of time for Neville, but I was wondering to whom he's referring given a summer of significant departures. Of the guys who are most frequently targeted as "trash" (or "weeds" to use another of his terms), Eric Bailly, Phil Jones and Marcos Rojo haven't played this year. Fred has been on the pitch for 24 minutes, Nemanja Matic has started one game. Who does he mean? Paul Pogba? Anthony Martial? Juan Mata?

I'm also not sure about the comparisons with Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool and how it took him time to produce. He reached a Europa League final after taking over in October and finished fourth the following year. Plus, he had a rather more credible resume than Solskjaer did. By all means, give him time, but set credible targets and deadlines too.

Why Chelsea's youth movement feels different

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Did anyone see this coming from Tammy Abraham?

ESPN FC's Alejandro Moreno joins Ross Dyer to react to Chelsea's thumping 5-2 win at Wolves which included a hat trick from Tammy Abraham.

Chelsea's 5-2 away win to Wolves brings their seasonal goals total to 11 and all of them scored by Academy graduates. Fikayo Tomori, Andreas Christensen, Tammy Abraham and Mason Mount all started at Molyneux and all look poised to play a big part in Chelsea's season. With more homegrown players -- Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Callum Hudson-Odoi, possibly Reece James too -- set to return from injury, there could be as many as seven of them in Frank Lampard's XI at some point.

What sets this group apart though is the fact that apart from Christensen, who joined at 16, the others have all been affiliated with the club since before they were 10 years old. We often play fast and loose with the homegrown label since so many clubs (including Chelsea, of course) cherry pick top talent from elsewhere at 16, stick them in the Academy for a year or two and then count them as "club-trained." Technically, that's true but with these guys, it's different.

Dortmund look ready for Barcelona

"Bouncebackability" isn't a real word, but it applies here. Borussia Dortmund had a whole international break to stew over the humiliating 3-1 defeat to newly promoted Union Berlin and with Kai Havertz and Bayer Leverkusen rolling into town, the potential for after-effects was still high. Instead, we got one of the most dominating Dortmund performances in recent memory. At the attacking end, Marco Reus got his mo-jo back, Jadon Sancho popped up with his usual two assists and Paco Alcacer scored in his eighth consecutive game, including internationals.

Roll on, Barcelona, this Tuesday.

Odegaard continues to dazzle

Martin Odegaard made his international debut for Norway at 15 years of age and moved to Real Madrid six months later. Too much, too soon? It felt that way to many, given he failed to establish himself at youth level and later spent two years on loan. But players develop at different speeds and having rocketed to the international stage, he was due a breather.

This year, he's on loan at Real Sociedad, where he's already scored twice and, on Saturday night against Atletico Madrid, was arguably man of the match. He doesn't even turn 21 until December, but it feels as if this could be the year it all comes together for him. Watch this space.

Meanwhile, for Atletico, the 2-0 defeat reinforces what we already know: losing four or five starters in a summer is tricky to metabolize and there will be days like this when Diego Simeone's tinkering leads nowhere.

Why Roberto Firmino is so unique

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How Roberto Firmino impacts Liverpool's attack

Alejandro Moreno explains how Roberto Firmino makes Liverpool's attacking movement more dynamic with his understanding of the game.

My former colleague Matthew Syed, writing in The Times, made the point that Roberto Firmino appears to have 360-degree vision, a bit like those owls, whose heads seem to swivel all the way around. It's not hard to see why, given his performance in Liverpool's 3-1 win over Newcastle.

Some see him as a prototype of a modern center-forward, the "false nine" who is more creator than finisher. That certainly fits with Firmino's strengths though another, equally formidable strength, is the intensity and intelligence of his pressing game. But I'm not sure he's a prototype of anything.

Most of Europe's top teams -- from Barcelona to Manchester City, from Tottenham to Real Madrid, from Bayern to Juventus -- still have a genuine centerforward rather than a "false nine" (to use another hipsterish term). In other words, Firmino is not a trend as much as he has a nearly unique, extremely rare skill set, which comes a result of his past as an attacking midfielder.

Conte keeping expectations down at Inter

Antonio Conte is playing that age-old game straight out of Sun Tzu's "The Art of War" -- "when you are weak, appear strong and when you are strong, appear weak." Following Inter's third win on the bounce (one-nil against Udinese) he said "we know the game. They build us up now to knock us down later. For us to win the title, other clubs would have to have disastrous seasons."

- Schoenfeld: Romelu Lukaku talks about his Inter mission

It's pretty transparent what he's doing. And yes, Inter aren't title favorites but he has the strike force he says he wanted (Romelu Lukaku, Lautaro Martinez, Alexis Sanchez), he has two of the best young midfielders in the league (Stefano Sensi and Nicolo Barella) and arguably the best center-back corps. There's no reason to hide. Own the responsibilty.

What needs to happen beyond #BlueGirl

The harrowing tale of Sahar Khodayari, the 29-year-old Iranian woman who set herself on fire (and later died from severe burns) after being sentenced to six months in prison for disguising herself as a man to attend a football match between her team, Esteghlal, and the UAE's Al-Ain last March, shocked the world.

Like many such stories, it's more complicated than it appears. There is no written law barring women from entering Iranian stadiums, so she was sentenced for not fully adhering to Islamic hijab laws and covering her head. But equally, since the Islamic revolution 40 years ago, women have been unofficially banned from watching men's games with very few exceptions, like last November's Asian Champions League final.

It shouldn't take the tragic death of a vulnerable person for the world to take notice. The hashtag #BlueGirl is great to raise awareness but it can't end there, particularly since there has been so much outrage and support for change, even in Iran.

FIFA President Gianni Infantino has pushed Iran on this matter before and the stock answer has been that the "infrastructure" was not yet in place to allow women in on a regular basis. (What infrastructure? Women's toilets? Surely they have port-a-potties in Iran...) That argument is nonsense as evidenced by the fact that women have been allowed in before. FIFA's statutes are very clear when it comes to equality and access. They have the power to withhold development money and suspend the Iranian FA.

It's time to take action and, given the support such action would have within Iran -- from much of the population and virtually the entire football world -- it feels like a no-brainer.

MLS Power Rankings: Zlatan stars amid Wild West chaos

Published in Soccer
Monday, 16 September 2019 07:03

Last time we met, the Major League Soccer playoff push was in full swing and every game seemed to count just a little bit more. New York City FC had ascended to the top of the Eastern Conference. Toronto FC had pulled themselves into a stable playoff position. Montreal had faded. Peace settled across the conference. This weeks' results changed nothing.

- ESPN MLS fantasy: Sign up here!

Meanwhile, in the Western Conference: chaos. The East is a PBS show about antiques. The West is a telenovela with more than one evil twin, an international conspiracy and rotating love triangles.

This week, seven teams moved up or down the standings based on the round of games in the West, and it doesn't figure to calm down any time soon.

We live for the chaos. Rank 'em up.

Previous rankings: Week 27 | Week 26 | Week 25 | Week 24 | Week 23 | Week 22 | Week 21 | Week 20 | Week 19 | Week 18 | Week 17 | Week 16 | Week 15 | Week 14 | Week 13 | Week 12 | Week 11 | Week 10 | Week 9 | Week 8 | Week 7 | Week 6 | Week 5 | Week 4 | Week 3 | Week 2 | Week 1

1. LAFC (19 wins, 7 draws, 4 losses)

Previous ranking: 1

Next MLS match: Sept. 21 vs. Toronto FC (10:30 p.m. ET, stream live on ESPN+)

LAFC are now in the middle of an unprecedented four-game winless run, which is the 2019 MLS regular season equivalent of Drago getting cut in "Rocky IV." Yes, that casts the Union as Rocky Balboa. Too easy.

2. New York City FC (16-9-5)

Previous ranking: 2

Next MLS match: Sept. 22 at FC Dallas (11:00 p.m. ET)

The late season rise of Keaton Parks continues and NYCFC is navigating the absence of Heber just fine, thank you very much. This calls for some peanuts and Cracker Jacks.

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3. Philadelphia Union (15-7-8)

Previous ranking: 3

Next MLS match: Sept. 22 at Red Bulls (6:30 p.m. ET, stream live on ESPN+)

Some people go back to school or take continuing education classes to improve their credentials. The Philadelphia Union play toe-to-toe with some of the league's best teams to improve theirs.

4. Minnesota United (14-6-10)

Previous ranking: 4

Next MLS match: Sept. 22 at Portland (3:55 p.m. ET, watch live on ESPN/ESPN Deportes)

"Molino, Quintero, baby why don't we go / to the playoffs..." The Loons are definitely going to go to the playoffs. Hopefully without terrible parody lyrics to a Beach Boys song we'd all like to forget.

5. Seattle Sounders (14-7-9)

Previous ranking: 8

Next MLS match: Sept. 18 vs. FC Dallas (10:30 p.m. ET, stream live on ESPN+)

Look, no one is going to say that the Sounders defense look MLS Cup-caliber at the moment, but as long they have a rampant Jordan Morris and Nicolas Lodeiro, no one should doubt their championship credentials.

6. Toronto FC (12-9-10)

Previous ranking: 13

Next MLS match: Sept. 21 at LAFC (10:30 p.m. ET, stream live on ESPN+)

Everything in Toronto is about bringing the talent in the squad to bear on the final few weeks of the seasons. It wasn't comfortable against Colorado, but the Reds have the look of a team no-one will want to see in the postseason.

7. Atlanta United (15-3-11)

Previous ranking: 5

Next MLS match: Sept. 18 at FC Cincinnati (7:30 p.m. ET, stream live on ESPN+)

Whatever designs the Five Stripes had on first place probably died at the hands of the ghost Crew on Saturday. Everyone is allowed a blip, even in crunch time, so we'll hold off on overrating the poorness of that performance.

8. LA Galaxy (14-3-13)

Previous ranking: 10

Next MLS match: Sept. 21 vs. Montreal (10:30 p.m. ET, stream live on ESPN+)

The Galaxy scored seven goals against Sporting and yet -- and yet -- there are still serious questions about that defense. For now, Zlatan Ibrahimovic & Co. are in fifth in the West and lurking.

9. D.C. United (12-9-10)

Previous ranking: 14

Next MLS match: Sept. 22 vs. Seattle (8 p.m. ET, stream live on ESPN+)

D.C. United got a lucky break (Portland's own goal), were denied a chance at an insurance goal and still held on against the Timbers in Portland. Every win is worth the same three points, but those three points will feel like some of the biggest of the season.

10. Portland Timbers (13-4-12)

Previous ranking: 7

Next MLS match: Sept. 18 vs. Red Bulls (10:30 p.m. ET, stream live on ESPN+)

The Timbers axe had no edge against D.C. United on Sunday. Without Brian Fernandez and Sebastian Blanco, Portland couldn't muster enough in the attack to overcome Bill Tuiloma's own goal. Mark that down as a very bad loss.

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Own goal dooms Portland to defeat vs. D.C.

The Timbers remain in sixth place in the West after falling to D.C. United via a Bill Tuiloma own goal. For more MLS sign up to ESPN+.

11. San Jose Earthquakes (13-5-12)

Previous ranking: 6

Next MLS match: Sept. 21 at Atlanta (3:30 p.m. ET)

The Quakes lost at Yankee Stadium, and Matias Almeyda was back on the sidelines. That's great because we then get quotes like this: "It's a great stadium, but it's a small-sided field. It's not real. It stops being realistic before the game even starts."

12. New England Revolution (10-10-10)

Previous ranking: 9

Next MLS match: Sept. 21 vs. Real Salt Lake (7:30 p.m. ET, stream live on ESPN+)

We didn't even know Bruce Arena teams were allowed to be up two goals at halftime and somehow not win. A road point should never be taken for granted, but with a playoff berth on the line, that's a draw that will hurt. The Revs have a record like a gymnastics score -- but not as positive.

13. Real Salt Lake (14-4-12)

Previous ranking: 11

Next MLS match: Sept. 21 at New England (7:30 p.m. ET, stream live on ESPN+)

RSL had one of those weeks that speaks to how tight things are in the West. A win over San Jose? Good! A loss to Minnesota? Not so good! RSL looks like a playoff team, but nothing else can be stated with certainty.

14. Orlando City (9-9-13)

Previous ranking: 17

Next MLS match: Sept. 21 at Houston (8:30 p.m. ET, stream live on ESPN+)

When only a win would do, the Lions go a three-goal performance -- and still managed to only draw. Orlando is the Sisyphean Team of the Year so far: Just when they look like they've reached the top of the hill, the boulder rolls all the way back down.

15. FC Dallas (12-7-11)

Previous ranking: 12

Next MLS match: Sept. 18 at Seattle (10:30 p.m. ET, stream live on ESPN+)

They don't let us post gifs in lieu of words in the Power Rankings. Just imagine that instead of these sentences, you're seeing a famous person making a confused face. FC Dallas everybody!

16. Chicago Fire (9-10-12)

Previous ranking: 19

Next MLS match: Sept. 21 at FC Cincinnati (7:30 p.m. ET, stream live on ESPN+)

Okay, Chicago, we see you. You didn't like our little joke at your expense last week and you decided to take it out on FC Dallas. We guess you do have all the ingredients for a conflagration.

17. Columbus Crew (9-7-15)

Previous ranking: 20

Next MLS match: Sept. 21 at Vancouver (5 p.m. ET, stream live on ESPN+)

Not going to lie, we're very confused by what happened in Atlanta. It's like the ghost version of the 2017 Columbus Crew inhabited the body of the current version and beat the champs at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Spooky.

18. Colorado Rapids (10-6-15)

Previous ranking: 15

Next MLS match: Sept. 21 at Sporting Kansas City (8:30 p.m. ET, stream live on ESPN+)

The Rapids were a saved penalty away from keeping Robin Fraser's unbeaten start as manager going against TFC in Toronto. It was never going to be simple for the new boss, and even in a loss there are positives for Colorado.

19. Sporting Kansas City (10-7-13)

Previous ranking: 16

Next MLS match: Sept. 21 vs. Colorado (8:30 p.m. ET, stream live on ESPN+)

Um. Yeah. Peter Vermes, do you want to take this one?

20. New York Red Bulls (12-5-13)

Previous ranking: 18

Next MLS match: Sept. 18 at Portland (10:30 p.m. ET, stream live on ESPN+)

The Red Bulls are on red alert after an ugly defensive performance in Seattle. What this year's entry from New Jersey lacks in assuredness they more than make up for in fragility. Wait, that's not how that's supposed to work ...

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Lodeiro lifts Sounders to victory vs. Reds Bulls

Nicolas Lodeiro tallied two goals to give the Sounders a 4-2 win over the Red Bulls. To watch MLS subscribe to ESPN+.

21. Vancouver Whitecaps (7-9-15)

Previous ranking: 22

Next MLS match: Sept. 21 vs. Columbus (5 p.m. ET, stream live on ESPN+)

The Caps aren't really in any danger of collecting the Wooden Spoon, but Saturday's win was important (sorry, "important") because it kept Marc Dos Santos' team one head of FC Cincinnati in the win column.

22. FC Cincinnati (6-3-21)

Previous ranking: 24

Next MLS match: Sept. 18 vs. Atlanta (7:30 p.m. ET, stream live on ESPN+)

The results are in: Skyline chili is better than poutine.

23. Houston Dynamo (10-4-16)

Previous ranking: 23

Next MLS match: Sept. 21 vs. Orlando (8:30 p.m. ET, stream live on ESPN+)

So much for Zombie Dynamo. Houston lurched back to life in midweek only to fall to the worst team in the Western Conference on Saturday.

24. Montreal Impact (11-4-16)

Previous ranking: 21

Next MLS match: Sept. 21 at LA Galaxy (10:30 p.m. ET, stream live on ESPN+)

Wilmer Cabrera, head coach of the Montreal Impact and a man with at least some say in what happens in Impact games (we think): "Losing against Cincinnati is one of the worst things that can happen to the players." Well then.

Last week was momentous for Somerset's cricketers. Needing a victory to put the pressure on Essex in what is a two-team arm-wrestle race for the title, they hammered Yorkshire by 298 runs, helped in large measure by two outstanding fifties from their skipper, Tom Abell, who batted ten minutes short of seven hours on a surface which some Test players found too taxing.

But that victory over Yorkshire may be viewed as little more than a staging post on a flight to glory should Somerset win the Championship in ten days' time. The prospect is the talk of Taunton - and also a subject which many of the county's supporters are barely able to discuss. Somerset, you see, have been here before.

In 2010 they needed Lancashire to avoid losing three first-innings wickets to Nottinghamshire at Old Trafford. Karl Brown, Mark Chilton and Shivnarine Chanderpaul were duly knocked over in 4.4 overs and the title went to Trent Bridge. "The eternal second" was the headline above Richard Latham's Somerset copy in the 2011 Wisden. Then in 2016 around a thousand supporters gathered at the County Ground, hoping against all cricketing logic that the game between Yorkshire and Middlesex at Lord's might end in a draw or a tie. Middlesex won the match - and the title. Perhaps we can now understand why some folk in Glastonbury or Frome will be torn between wanting to find out what is going on in this week's match at the Rose Bowl and wondering whether a week's retreat with Trappist monks might be a saner option. No one doubts Essex would be worthy champions; they are not the bad guys in this drama. All the same…

One of the most memorable photographs from that Friday afternoon at the County Ground three years ago shows Somerset's skipper, Chris Rogers, "Buck" to almost everybody in the game, looking up at the television as the drama unfolds at Lord's. Rogers had retired from the game the previous evening after making two centuries in the annihilation of Nottinghamshire. Now all he could do was wait. Hardly anyone knew it at the time but Somerset's then-director of cricket, Matthew Maynard, had chosen Rogers' successor. He had settled on Abell, a 23-year-old Taunton boy.

It has proved a wise choice. Abell has the respect of his players and the unconditional love of the county's supporters. His captaincy against Yorkshire last week was assured and suddenly one realised he is now a senior cricketer with perhaps a decade in the professional game ahead of him. But as Abell prepares himself and his team for their vital matches against Hampshire and Essex, it is probably important to recall that two years ago, in his first season at the helm, he was in such poor batting form that he dropped himself from Somerset's team for another match against Yorkshire, at Scarborough. And even more intriguing to discover that Jason Kerr, Somerset's current head coach, told Abell he "enjoyed" the skipper's slump even as he sympathised with his gloom.

"We're very keen at Somerset to develop people as human beings and I'm a fan of people going through adversity," said Kerr. "That year was awful to watch for Somerset supporters and for friends and family of Tom but if you go through something like that you are definitely stronger. It's a determining factor in how you are going to be moving forward.

"I can remember having conversations with Tom at the time when I said: 'Look, you won't appreciate this but I'm actually quite enjoying this happening to you.' You can imagine how he looked at me but I told him he would be a better person and we are all reaping the rewards now. I think we'll see a consistency of performance which will get him higher recognition."

"That year was awful to watch for Somerset supporters and for friends and family of Tom but if you go through something like that you are definitely stronger." Jason Kerr on Tom Abell's batting slump

During 2017 Abell viewed any type of higher recognition as a distant second to justifying his place in Somerset's team and he is now capable of viewing things a little more dispassionately than perhaps he could at the time.

"I guess luck does come into it," he said. "I dropped myself and that's something that had to happen. But circumstances dictated I got back in the side because Adam Hose left and vacated a spot at five. But things could have been very different and I look back with a bit of relief that I managed to come back. It was a pretty tough time and as a captain it was difficult to lead from the front when you weren't worth your place in the side. But I have a great team around me and great team-mates who will always have my back.

"We know there are going to be times when things don't go as smoothly as you would like. I spoke to Andy Hurry during that period and he said it was possibly the best thing that will ever happen to you in your career. It wasn't nice but I've come out the other side."

Abell's emergence from what is becoming a distant gloom has been confirmed in several ways this summer. He has led Somerset to the Royal London One-Day Cup triumph and made a century in the Vitality Blast which revealed a far greater range of shot than he previously possessed. Above all, though, he is a shrewd captain and front-line batsman, who may, just may, lead them to the title So these are heady times as well as momentous ones and you might think it would be useful if Abell had the advice of someone like Rogers to call on. Funny you should ask…

"Buck was fantastic for us," said Abell. "I had a really good relationship with him and certainly learned a lot from him in the year he was here. He helped me as a batter and I still have the few pages that he wrote and gave to me to help me out as a captain. And that was great because I don't think you can fully prepare yourself for what to expect and you can't ask for anything more than to have people like that in your corner. The notes are all about tactics, playing on spinning wickets, making sure you take care of your own game and getting the best out of the team. There were other things - in cricket and outside of cricket."

Getting outside cricket may well be important in the next fortnight even if Somerset and Essex's players have little opportunity to take in a film or play a little golf. It scarcely needs too much imagination to visualise what the County Ground will be like if the title comes to Somerset. Already officials are thinking of hiring Portakabins to accommodate the influx of written media keen to report on the shootout beloved of the tabloids. The usual press box is being used by Sky and the Thatcher's Terrace will be the preserve of TMS. And all this for a game nobody watches…

"We're trying to avoid thinking too far ahead," Abell counselled, "We love it and we're desperate to do something special. You do get a sense of the pride the people of Somerset take in their cricket and we felt that when we won the one-day cup earlier in the year. Taunton is a very special place and we have a special group of supporters. We're also a tight group and we are desperate to win it for each other."

It will also be fair to say that Somerset's players are keen to win the title for Marcus Trescothick, who retires at the end of this season, and for Kerr, a quietly-spoken Boltonian who has made his life in the West Country and has spent most of his career at the County Ground. The coach, himself, of course, having enjoyed Abell's agony, will share in his ecstasy if the title comes to the West Country for the first time.

"I'm a huge fan of Tom and he has my unconditional support," he said. "I think he's an outstanding cricketer and an outstanding leader. I think what we've seen emerge more this year is his deep-rooted belief in himself. The guys follow him and I think we're going to see him go from strength to strength. He took responsibility on a really challenging surface in this game against Yorkshire and batted as if he'd been playing a lot longer than his years suggested. The signs are really good for him."

The BCCI's anti-corruption unit (ACU) is conducting an inquiry into alleged approaches made to several players by suspicious people in the latest edition of the Tamil Nadu Premier League (TNPL), a T20 competition conducted by the Tamil Nadu Cricket Association (TNCA). The ACU launched an inquiry after the players reported the alleged approaches during the tournament.

According to Ajit Singh, head of the ACU, the approaches were reported by the players promptly during the fourth season of the league, played between July 19 and August 15 between eight teams. "It is an inquiry into who has made an approach," Singh told ESPNcricinfo. "The players have told us we have received these messages, so it is not an inquiry against the player."

It is understood that seven to eight players had reported approaches to the ACU.

When asked, Singh said he could not confirm or deny whether any of the players are, or have been, Indian internationals. Saying he did not have an exact number of players who had reported approaches, Singh did confirm that there were at least a handful. "There were messages who is going to bat first in the match, basically seeking (match related) information. We presume it's coming from those who are interested in betting," he elaborated.

Singh, a former Director General of Police in Rajasthan, also said that the ACU had received no information against any of the eight team owners, and the teams are not part of the inquiry as of now. As things stand, the ACU is trying to establish the source of the messages the players had received, which involves tracking telephone numbers.

That information can only be accessed by the police, but under the Indian Penal Code, match fixing is not yet a legal offence. Hence, Singh said, there was no deadline as such, but the ACU will look at all possible angles before wrapping up the inquiry.

Incidentally, this was the first time that the ACU provided cover for TNPL, having supervised the anti-corruption measures last year. In the first three seasons, the TNPL had on board Ravi Sawani, former ICC ACU general manager and BCCI ACU head, to look after the anti-corruption cell. This season, the TNPL had four ACU officers available throughout the tournament, with a few more investigators providing them support.

Singh explained that the ACU conducts a mandatory education programme before any tournament and this was followed at the TNPL this time. Players are expected to report any approach made within 24 hours to the ACU, and Singh said that the education programme had helped make players aware of the way corrupt elements seek match-related information, and how they use it. Also, the programmes have helped develop a rapport between players and ACU officers, who they can contact directly if required.

Later in the evening, the TNCA sent out a press release, stating that the TNPL has a "zero tolerance policy" towards corruption. The release also said that the TNCA has appointed a committee to look into the allegations.

"Having received information of acts that would constitute, if accurate, offences under the regulatory framework of the TNPL, the TNCA had appointed a committee to enquire into the issue and submit a report and until the Committee has been afforded an opportunity to thoroughly examine the allegations and submit their report, the TNCA is unable to make any statements on the specifics of the allegations concerning teams, players or officials."

The TNPL was launched in 2016 by TNCA, the home base of former BCCI president and ICC chairman N Srinivasan. The tournament has been promoted by various high-profile present and former cricketers acting as brand ambassadors: MS Dhoni, Shane Watson, Matthew Hayden, Michael Hussey, Brett Lee, and Ambati Rayudu. The best cricketers from the region have also always been a part of the mix. This year, for example, Dinesh Karthik, R Ashwin, Vijay Shankar, M Vijay, Washington Sundar and Abhinav Mukund were all part of the action. Also, the TNPL has been telecast by Star India, the biggest broadcaster in cricket, which owns rights for ICC global tournaments as well Indian cricket rights and the IPL.

12.52pm GMT: The news story was updated after the TNCA sent a press release

BCCI accepts Dinesh Karthik's apology for CPL appearance

Published in Cricket
Monday, 16 September 2019 06:42

The BCCI has accepted Indian wicketkeeper-batsman Dinesh Karthik's unconditional apology for violating a clause of his central contract by watching a Caribbean Premier League match from Trinbago Knight Riders' dressing room.

"The BCCI has accepted Dinesh Karthik's apology and the matter is now a closed chapter," a board official told PTI.

As per the central contract, Karthik, who has played 26 Tests, 94 ODIs and 32 T20Is for India, should have taken permission from the BCCI before attending the match. His contract bars him from being associated with any private league.

Karthik is the captain of IPL franchise Kolkata Knight Riders but being seen in a TKR jersey, while watching the match from the dressing room, prompted the BCCI to issue a show cause notice, asking why his central contract should not be cancelled.

Karthik, in his reply, submitted that he went to Port-of-Spain on KKR's new head coach Brendon McCullum's request and watched the match wearing the TKR jersey on the New Zealander's insistence.

India women player reports fixing approach

Published in Cricket
Monday, 16 September 2019 07:03

A member of the India women team was allegedly approached to fix matches earlier this year. The alleged incident, which the player reported to the BCCI's anti-corruption unit (ACU), took place in February, ahead of the limited-overs home series against England.

The ACU has registered a first-information report (FIR) with the Bengaluru police against two individuals, Rakesh Bafna and Jitendra Kothari, for the alleged approach. The case has been registered under four sections of the Indian Penal Code (IPC) including Section 420, which pertains to cheating and dishonestly inducing delivery of property.

"Today, we have got an FIR registered against two people in Bengaluru," Ajit Singh Shekhawat, who heads the BCCI's ACU, told Sportstar on Monday. "The FIR pertains to an approach that was made to one of the women cricketers of the team. She reported the approach to us and even recorded the conversation she had with one of the accused over the telephone."

According to the Sportstar report, Kothari, claiming to be a sports manager, got in touch with the player last year. In February, when the player was undergoing recovery sessions at the National Cricket Academy (NCA) in Bengaluru, Kothari put her through to Bafna.

"Kothari was trying to sell himself as the manager of various women cricketers," Shekhawat said. "It was he who introduced Bafna to the player. He approached her to fix matches and play according to the script."

This incident, Shekhawat said, should serve as an eye-opener for women cricketers that they are as vulnerable to corrupt approaches as their male counterparts. "People involved in betting just need any cricket match, for them, it does not matter at what level it is being played," he said. "If a match is telecast, that helps them in betting and that's why they indulge in spot-fixing."

George Munsey's mind-boggling hundred sets records ablaze

Published in Cricket
Monday, 16 September 2019 08:49

41 - Balls taken by George Munsey to score his century against Netherlands, making it the third-fastest in T20Is. And it was his maiden hundred in international cricket too.

14 - Sixes hit by Munsey - only one man has managed more in a single T20I innings - Hazratullah Zazai.

3 - Munsey and Kyle Coetzer ransacked 200 runs in a mere 91 balls, making it the third-highest partnership in T20Is, for any wicket. It is the highest partnership for any wicket for Scotland.

32 - Munsey walloped four sixes and two fours in Max O'Dowd's first over. Only Yuvraj Singh has made more runs in a single over in T20 internationals.

252 for 3 - Scotland's final total - easily their best in T20Is and the sixth highest overall

More to follow...

Sources: Brees surgery likely, could miss 6 weeks

Published in Breaking News
Monday, 16 September 2019 08:40

New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees is expected to undergo thumb surgery as early as Monday that could sideline him about six weeks, league sources told ESPN's Adam Schefter.

Brees knew Sunday night that he needed surgery for ligament damage, sources told ESPN's Chris Mortensen. The quarterback was still deciding who would do the surgery and when.

The Saints have not indicated whether they will consider placing Brees on injured reserve, which would free up a roster spot but would require the quarterback to miss at least eight weeks.

New Orleans will turn to Teddy Bridgewater, who is the NFL's highest-paid backup quarterback on a one-year, $7.25 million deal.

Brees left Sunday's game late in the first quarter after his right throwing hand appeared to hit Los Angeles Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald's hand at the end of an incomplete pass.

Brees had his right thumb and lower hand/wrist area taped by a trainer on the bench and remained on the sideline for the rest of the game in uniform.

After the game, he acknowledged that he was "concerned" about the severity of the injury.

With Brees likely to miss multiple games, the Saints are now 25-1 to win the Super Bowl at Caesars Sportsbook. Prior to Sunday's game, New Orleans had 8-1 odds at Caesars.

Bridgewater finished the game for Brees, going 17 of 30 for 165 yards in a 27-9 loss to the Rams. It was only the third time under coach Sean Payton, who took over in 2006, that the Saints failed to score a touchdown.

Brees, 40, has missed only one start because of injury since high school -- when he was ruled out of a Week 3 game against the Carolina Panthers in 2015 with a shoulder injury.

Brees' absence will end his streak of starting at least 15 games in 15 straight seasons -- the second-longest of its kind behind only Brett Favre, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

Brees said it was tough for him to watch from the sideline Sunday. When he missed that game in 2015 at Carolina, he actually stood on the sideline and mimicked breaking the huddle before each play.

"It's very difficult not to be playing," Brees said. "I'm not used to that. I don't want to get used to that."

The Saints have invested heavily in Bridgewater, the former first-round draft pick of the Minnesota Vikings. They initially traded a third-round pick to acquire him last summer from the New York Jets.

Dual-threat quarterback Taysom Hill is another option for the Saints while Brees is sidelined.

Payton showed his support for Bridgewater after the game, calling him a "pro" who was ready to go after Brees was hurt while blaming a lot of Bridgewater's struggles on the Saints' offensive line getting "whupped" up front and a slew of drive-killing penalties.

"I felt comfortable with Teddy and do feel comfortable with Teddy," Payton said.

ESPN's Mike Triplett contributed to this report.

We know you're not supposed to overreact to Week 1, but what about Week 2?

A two-game sample is twice as large as a one-game sample (math!), and besides, history tells us it absolutely can matter where you stand after the first two weeks. Since 1990, when the current playoff format began, NFL teams that have started 2-0 have made the playoffs 61.3% of the time. Teams starting 0-2 make it just 12.6% of the time.

So, yeah, let's go ahead and overreact to Week 2, shall we?


The Giants need to start Daniel Jones now

New York fell to 0-2 with a 28-14 home loss to Buffalo. Lame-duck veteran quarterback Eli Manning was 26-for-45 for 250 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions. That isn't terrible when you consider the state of the Giants' wide receiving corps (Sterling Shepard hurt, Golden Tate suspended, Odell Beckham Jr. traded to Cleveland because the coaches didn't like him), but it's not very exciting, and it certainly wasn't enough to win.

The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. The only argument you can make against this team bringing in its rookie first-round pick is that the Giants, with their ultra-permissive defense and shredded receiving corps, aren't a great situation to throw a rookie into at this point. But the 2018 Bills weren't a great situation to throw Josh Allen into, and look what he just did to the Giants on Sunday.

One of the Giants' biggest problems the past couple of years has been the front office's inability to accurately assess the state of its roster. This is clearly a rebuilding team, and it should be rebuilding around the quarterback it deemed good enough to select No. 6 overall. No reason to delay the inevitable. The team has one of the most exciting young players in the game in Saquon Barkley, and the smart thing to do with a star running back is to maximize these brilliant early years before he wears down and/or it's time to pay him.

If Jones is going to be Barkley's quarterback, there's no reason to waste any more of his rookie contract (or Barkley's) just because of some misguided perception that Manning makes them more competitive. They sure don't look very competitive, and what makes it all worse is that they aren't very interesting. Jones would be something that might excite the fans and let them imagine better days to come.


The Patriots are going 16-0

New England rolled into Miami and did what everybody expected it to do -- crushed a junior varsity Dolphins team 43-0, outgaining Miami 381 yards to 184 behind Tom Brady, Sony Michel and yeah, Antonio Brown, who caught a touchdown pass and was Brady's most targeted receiver in his debut. The Pats have outscored their two opponents 76-3 so far, and their defense appears to have picked up right where it left off in the Super Bowl.

The verdict: OVERREACTION. Just because it's really hard to go 16-0. The Patriots have done it, sure, but that was 12 years ago, so even they know it's easier said than done.

The schedule doesn't look too challenging until November, but in the second half of the season they'll play road games in Baltimore and Philadelphia, and home games against the Chiefs and Cowboys. Every team slips up at some point, and the Pats will be no exception.

Add in the high level of risk with which they've packed their roster -- Brown, Josh Gordon, a rookie quarterback backing up a 42-year-old starter -- and it's not hard to imagine a rough patch or two. New England looks like a solid bet to win the division for the 11th year in a row, but 16-0? Too soon to be thinking like that.

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1:39

Jackson: AB can be 'ultimate weapon' for Brady

Tom Jackson believes the Patriots made a statement with Antonio Brown, but he is really impressed with the New England defense.

The Packers will win the NFC North

It hasn't been easy, but Green Bay improved to 2-0 with a 21-16 victory over Minnesota on Sunday. And they're not just 2-0 -- they're 2-0 in their division, with victories over the Bears and Vikings. Four of the Packers' next five games are at home, so you can imagine the hot start continuing. And for the second week in a row, the improvements they made on defense in free agency were a huge part of the win.

The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. The Packers have won two games without their offense really clicking. Oh, it clicked in the first quarter Sunday, when they built a 21-0 lead on their first three possessions. But then it stalled, and the defense had to hang on. Those three drives and one in the opener in Chicago have really been the only times they've looked good on offense, and still they've managed to win both games.

The offense is only going to get better as Aaron Rodgers and coach Matt LaFleur jell, the offensive line gets more comfortable with the run-blocking schemes and everything runs more smoothly. "We've still got more to do," running back Jamaal Williams said after Sunday's game. "We're proud of how we started today, not proud of how we finished, but it's getting better and it will continue to get better." In the meantime, Green Bay continues to build confidence in its rebuilt defense, and that will continue to pay off down the road.


The Steelers will miss the playoffs

Pittsburgh is winless after season-opening losses to New England and Seattle. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger left Sunday's game because of an elbow injury. Running back James Conner left the game because of a knee injury. Neither returned, and the Steel City braces for news on both injuries early this week. Meanwhile, the defending division champion Ravens, who were supposed to be having a growing-pains year, are 2-0 and looking fantastic.

The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. If Roethlisberger and Conner have to miss time, this roster starts to look awfully thin awfully quickly. Pittsburgh is already trying to figure out who the No. 2 receiver is behind JuJu Smith-Schuster -- not to mention whether Smith-Schuster is really a No. 1.

No offense to Mason Rudolph, who came in and did fine in relief of Roethlisberger on Sunday. But downgrading from Roethlisberger to Rudolph -- for however long they must -- is no way to help answer some of the key questions the Steelers still have to answer on offense.


The Saints are in huge trouble without Drew Brees

Brees is the other veteran star quarterback who couldn't finish his game Sunday, leaving in the first half of the loss to the Rams because of a thumb injury. Without him, the Saints couldn't get anything going offensively, and the Rams ran away from them in the second half. Brees is expected to undergo thumb surgery that could sideline him about six weeks, league sources told ESPN's Adam Schefter.

The verdict: OVERREACTION. Wait, Graziano. How can you say the Steelers are in trouble but the Saints aren't? One team lost its future Hall of Fame quarterback and so did the other. What's the difference? Well, I'll give you a couple of differences.

First, there doesn't appear, based on early returns, to be a Ravens equivalent in the Saints' division. Carolina is off to a miserable start, and Atlanta looked terrible in its opener. Second, Teddy Bridgewater has been in the Saints' program for a couple of seasons now. And while the same can be said of Rudolph in Pittsburgh, I have a little more faith in Sean Payton and the Saints' coaching staff to develop and maximize a backup quarterback than I do in Pittsburgh's.

New Orleans' roster is deeper, it's better set up to lean on the run game, and I think Bridgewater will show more than he showed in relief Sunday. So that's why.

By now, we've learned to expect greatness from the New England Patriots. Winning is our default expectation for them. Bill Belichick & Co. have been favored in more than 90% of Tom Brady's starts since the future Hall of Famer returned from his torn ACL in 2009. They are 2-0 this season, and unless you firmly believed that New England was subject to some sort of Miami curse after dropping five of its previous six games on the road against the Dolphins, you're probably not surprised.

Even by the lofty standards set by the Patriots, though, they're off to a spectacular start. They followed a 33-3 win over the Steelers in Week 1 with a 43-0 shellacking of the hapless Dolphins in Miami on Sunday. They have outscored their two opponents by 73 points. If that seems like a lot, consider that the last time an NFL team outscored its opponents by 73 points or more during the first two weeks of a season was in 1975. Belichick's team is off to the third-fastest start for any franchise in NFL history.

This is about as good as any football team will play over a two-week span. Going back through the beginning of the Belichick-Brady dynasty in 2001, the Patriots have won back-to-back games by 30 points or more only once, back in 2012. (The second of those two victories was the Butt Fumble game.) The Pats haven't ever produced a plus-73 point differential over a two-week span; the closest they came was in 2007, when a 21-point win over the Dolphins and a 45-point victory over Washington got the Patriots to 8-0.

You probably remember that team, of course; the 2007 Patriots became just the second team in NFL history to go undefeated during the regular season, starting 16-0 before eventually losing to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII. The Patriots' first half of that regular season is still the most dominant two months of pro football I've ever seen, and it changed the league forever.

Those Pats never had a two-game stretch as dominant as the one we've just seen this team piece together to start the season. The parallels between the two aren't particularly subtle. The '07 Pats could do everything, but Belichick transformed his offense by adding impact wide receivers. The 2007 team retained Jabar Gaffney and added Donte Stallworth, Wes Welker and a mercurial star who had washed out in Oakland by the name of Randy Moss.

These Patriots, on the other hand, started with a much better returning wideout in Julian Edelman. They got Josh Gordon back from suspension in August and then added Antonio Brown once the Raiders ended their brief relationship with Brown before Week 1. New England also has first-round pick N'Keal Harry waiting in the wings, although the Arizona State product is on injured reserve and will miss at least the first half of the season.

We've only seen Brown, Edelman and Gordon on the field together for one game, and it was against a Dolphins team that might very well be one of the horrific NFL teams of this era. It wasn't the same sort of dominant passing day we saw from the 2007 Patriots, who seemed to respond to the Spygate scandal from Week 1 by lighting their opponents on fire. A dominant passing attack wouldn't be as much of a surprise as it was in 2007, when Brady leveled up and became one of the best passers in league history.

It's wild to predict that any team that starts 2-0 will eventually go 16-0, and I'm not trying to do so here. According to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), the Patriots have just a 1.9% chance of finishing the regular season undefeated. To put that in context, FPI gave the Dolphins a 14.1% shot of beating the Patriots outright on Sunday, while the money line at the Caesars Sportsbook implied Miami's odds were at 8.7%. You saw how unlikely Miami's chances actually were if you watched the game Sunday.

And yet, it's not too early to point out that there's the opportunity for something special to happen here. The Patriots are about as well-positioned to get off to a hot start as any team in recent memory. Given their current level of play, that could make things very scary for the rest of the NFL.


Reasons to get excited about 16-0

We knew things were expected to be easy for the Pats heading into the season. FPI projected them to enjoy the league's second-easiest schedule in 2019, with only the Jets going up against an easier slate. They already have one of their two Dolphins games out of the way, but their schedule -- especially during the first half of the year -- now seems easier than it did before the season began. Consider what their next few weeks look like:

  • The Patriots play a Jets team in Week 3 that won't have Sam Darnold, who is out with mononucleosis. New York won't have C.J. Mosley and Quinnen Williams against the Browns and will be coming off a short week because it plays on Monday Night Football, so it's unclear whether Mosley and Williams will be ready for Sunday. Starting linemen Kelvin Beachum and Brian Winters are questionable, while Le'Veon Bell will play through some shoulder trouble. Would-be starters Quincy Enunwa and Avery Williamson are also out for the year.

  • Week 4 will see the Pats face the Bills, who have looked dominant defensively in getting out to a 2-0 start. This is likely a tougher game than it seemed before the season.

  • Seven days later, the Pats will face a Washington team that hasn't yet convinced star tackle Trent Williams to end his holdout and return to the organization. Jay Gruden's team has started 0-2 and has been outscored by 15 points; it might well be transitioning from Case Keenum to rookie Dwayne Haskins by Week 5.

  • In Week 6, the Patriots host the Giants on Thursday night.

  • After a long week, the Pats get the Jets again; while Darnold is expected to be back on the field by then, it's unlikely the second-year passer will be back at 100 percent after losing weight while recuperating.

  • In Week 8, the Patriots host a Browns team that got blown out at home in its season opener after an offseason of hype. It's still way too early to count Cleveland out from contending, of course, but the Browns didn't impress in their first game under Freddie Kitchens as head coach.

After that, the schedule admittedly gets tough. Over a six-week stretch, the Patriots host the Cowboys and Chiefs and travel to face the Ravens, Eagles and Texans, with a bye week thrown in. They finish up by traveling to face a Bengals team that is already riddled with injuries before coming home for two final games against the Bills and Dolphins.

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0:53

Patriots defense comes up with pick-sixes on consecutive drives

Stephon Gilmore picks off Ryan Fitzpatrick and runs it back 54 yards for a touchdown. On the next drive, Jamie Collins intercepts the ball as well and takes it back 69 yards for another Patriots touchdown.

I don't like the check mark way of projecting a team's future record, which is the thing we all do when a team's schedule comes out and we run through their week-by-week slate. Too many unforeseen things happen. Every Browns fan on the planet would have expected to beat the Titans at home in their opener, and Cleveland lost by 30 points.

By FPI, though, the Patriots have a 30.1% chance of making it through the first half of the season undefeated. They have gone undefeated through their first eight games of the season only twice during the Belichick era. One of those seasons was 2007, obviously, while the other came in 2015, when they started 10-0 before losing to the Broncos. Denver then beat New England in their playoff rematch.

Likewise, there are reasons to think the Patriots are a much better team than we expected even as the preseason began. It wasn't clear whether they were going to get Gordon back at any point for the 2019 season, but he was allowed back into the NFL in mid-August after he applied for reinstatement over the summer. He's still likely not in football shape, but Gordon has shown an ability to strike up a connection with Brady. After his first three games in a Patriots uniform, Gordon averaged 74.5 receiving yards per game during his final eight appearances in 2018. He added 73 yards and a touchdown in the opener before a quiet day against the Dolphins. You can count the receivers in the NFL who have Gordon's athletic ability on one hand.

As unlikely as Gordon's presence in a Patriots uniform might have been, Brown was on another level. It would have been absurd to script his path to the Patriots over the past month, but the former Steelers star officially made his debut in a Patriots uniform Sunday. He took no time to make his presence known, catching three passes on the opening drive before adding a 20-yard touchdown later in the half. Brown would have had a second touchdown if it weren't for an uncharacteristic underthrow from Brady. He was targeted on eight of Brady's 28 pass attempts, a surprisingly large ratio for a wide receiver who is still realistically learning a complex Patriots scheme. The 31-year-old was targeted on 57.1% of the routes he ran, which seems at odds with the postgame suggestions from Belichick that the Patriots weren't trying to force Brown the football.

This was a team that was already expected to contend for a Super Bowl this season, even after losing Rob Gronkowski, Chris Hogan and Cordarrelle Patterson without signing any veteran replacements. Pats fans were talking themselves into guys like Maurice Harris and Jakobi Meyers in the preseason; now, they've upgraded with significantly more talented receiver options. New England's ceiling is unquestionably higher with Brown and Gordon at receiver.

Why 16-0 is unlikely

The Patriots have a better shot of going 16-0 than any other 2-0 team in recent memory. Those chances are still extremely small, even if I'm more optimistic than FPI's prescribed odds of 1.9%. So many things had to go right for those Patriots to go 16-0 in 2007. Counting on all of those things to happen again is a tall order:

The 2007 Patriots stayed healthy. No team can go all season without any injuries, but those Pats came pretty close. Richard Seymour started the year on the PUP list, and starting guard Stephen Neal missed time with a shoulder injury, but the only starter to hit injured reserve with an injury suffered during the season was Rosevelt Colvin, and he wasn't lost until Week 13.

The modern-day Patriots already have lost one starter for the season in center David Andrews, who was placed on injured reserve with blood clots. The offensive line is quickly becoming a concern, as right tackle Marcus Cannon missed the Dolphins game with a shoulder injury. The Pats signed veteran Marshall Newhouse on Wednesday and inserted him into the starting lineup; when left tackle Isaiah Wynn was ruled out with a foot injury, the Patriots then shifted Newhouse to Brady's blind side. If Wynn's foot injury is serious, they will have major concerns protecting Brady, no matter how good his receiving corps looks.

Their opponents weren't healthy. The Pats ran into five backup quarterbacks during their 16-0 season; Cleo Lemon started twice for the Dolphins, A.J. Feeley suited up for the Eagles, and Kyle Boller sat in for Steve McNair with the Ravens. J.P. Losman technically started the Week 3 game for the Bills, but he was knocked out after the opening series and replaced by Trent Edwards for the majority of the game. The Patriots beat the Feeley-led Eagles and the Boller-led Ravens by only three points each. They might very well have lost if the Eagles had Donovan McNabb or the Ravens had McNair. Brady also threw three interceptions in the AFC Championship Game against the Chargers, but the Patriots' defense held a Chargers team that lost LaDainian Tomlinson in the first quarter and had Philip Rivers playing through a torn ACL to 12 points.

Belichick is likely to face his first backup quarterback of the season on Sunday in the Jets' Trevor Siemian. It's impossible to project anything further beyond that point, but tough games down the line against teams such as the Chiefs, Eagles and Ravens wouldn't be anywhere near as difficult if their starting quarterbacks were injured.

The 2007 Patriots caught some breaks. As dominant as the Patriots were during the first half of the season, it's easy to picture a number of their games going the other way with a few small moments going the other way. In one of the games of the century against the Colts, Peyton Manning turned the ball over down 24-20 at midfield on a third-and-9 with 2:34 left. In the Eagles game, Feeley drove Philly to the Pats' 29-yard line with 3:58 to go, only to throw an interception to Asante Samuel.

The most memorable narrow victory was the 27-24 win over the Ravens, which included Ed Reed fumbling away an interception return in what would have been field goal territory at the end of the first half. With the Pats trailing 24-20 late in the fourth quarter, the Patriots false-started on a fourth-and-1 play that went for a loss. Brady scrambled to convert the ensuing fourth-and-6, then picked up a fourth-and-5 via a holding penalty. They scored on the ensuing play, and while Boller hit Derrick Mason on a Hail Mary on the final play of the game, Mason caught the ball at the 2-yard line and wasn't able to score.

The 38-35 victory over the Giants wasn't quite as close as people remember -- the Giants scored a touchdown with 1:08 to go to get within three -- but you can see just how little it would have taken for things to swing the other way and for the 16-0 season to turn into a 14-2 or 15-1 campaign. Even if the Patriots are as good as they seem right now, they'll have a game or two where they'll need a penalty flag at the right time or a gift from their opponents.

The receivers the Patriots have now might not be the receivers the Pats have in December. Moss' fit with the Patriots wasn't as rosy as it's been later depicted. There were rumors before Week 1 that the Patriots were about to release him after he struggled with a hamstring injury during preseason. That didn't happen, and Moss pieced together one of the best seasons from any wide receiver in league history. There are more significant concerns with New England's additions. Gordon has missed 59 games since the start of 2014 as a result of multiple suspensions. Brown's behavior on the field and in the facility over the past 12 months has been curious at best, and he was recently accused of sexual assault in a civil case. Even Edelman, who served a four-game PED suspension in 2018, would be subject to a 10-game suspension if he failed a second test.

Brady was 30 in 2007, and he's 42 now. As incredibly as Brady has aged, and as much as he has developed over that time frame, every single quarterback on the planet is going to be better at 30 than he is at 42. This doesn't mean that Brady has somehow become a liability or that I'm counting out his chances of accomplishing anything in 2019 whatsoever. (I'd like this on the record in case Brady busts out "everyone thinks we suck" again during his postseason interviews.) He is still an upper-echelon quarterback, of course, but it's going to be harder to throw and recover as the season wears on with 12 more years of wear and tear on his body. That's only going to be more difficult if the Pats can't keep their starting offensive linemen healthy.

The defense might not be as good as it seems. The Patriots finished 16th in defensive DVOA last season and then lost their best pass-rusher, Trey Flowers, to Detroit in free agency. They traded for defensive end Michael Bennett, brought back linebacker Jamie Collins, and drafted pass-rusher Chase Winovich in the third round, but Belichick didn't make any other significant additions on defense.

New England has now allowed three points through two weeks. It is the best defense in football after two games, and it has even chipped in 14 points on interception returns. Given that the Pats are relatively talent-neutral with a defense that was middle of the pack last season and haven't fielded a top-10 defense by DVOA since 2006, I don't think they're going to continue to be the best defense in football over the remainder of the season. We'll need to see them against a real offense to confirm this hypothesis, but the Pats might not go up against an above-average offense until they get the Browns in Week 8.

If I had to pick a record for the Patriots right now, I'd go with 13-3, even after this molten start. FPI, meanwhile, also projects them to win 13 games.

Does it actually matter?

The Patriots' legendary pairing of coach and quarterback usually isn't hard to read. They both want to win more than anything else, which is why Belichick opened the locker room to Brown and Brady literally offered the four-time All-Pro the option to stay at his house during the season. Nobody gets sick of winning the Super Bowl, and the Patriots enter every season in Super Bowl-or-bust mode.

I wonder, though, whether an undefeated season would mean more to Belichick and Brady now than it would have in 2007. What else do they need to prove? New England has won six Super Bowls during this dynasty. The Pats have more Super Bowl rings than any other coach (Belichick's eight) or player (Brady's six) in football history. The one thing they came close to accomplishing but failed to achieve was a perfect season. To call it a blemish on their record would be wrong, but it's also the one thing Brady and Belichick might look back and wish they had accomplished as a duo. Going 19-0 might have seemed impossible before 2007. Twelve years later, while it's still not likely, the Patriots know an undefeated season is possible.

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