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When can Liverpool win the Premier League title?

Written by 
Published in Soccer
Sunday, 13 April 2025 03:42

Liverpool have built up a 10-point lead at the top of the Premier League table with seven games to go and seem destined to be crowned English champions for a 20th time.

But how soon could the title be sealed? When is the most likely date? And what does the fixture list look like?

This file will be updated throughout the season until the title is confirmed -- for Liverpool, Arsenal or perhaps even Nottingham Forest.

How does the table look?

Most teams have played 31 or 32 matches, which means there are six or seven matches left, and 18-21 points to play for.

Second-place Arsenal drew their 12th game of the season against Brentford on Saturday, with Liverpool at home to West Ham United on Sunday.

Nottingham Forest are in third place but are six points further back after losing to Everton.

How many points do Liverpool need?

Liverpool require nine points (82 in total) from their remaining seven games for an unassailable points total, as Arsenal can finish on a maximum of 81 if they win all their matches. Of course, it's unlikely the Gunners will do that, so fewer points are probably needed.

When is the earliest Liverpool could win the league?

It could be wrapped up in three games' time in Gameweek 33 -- on Sunday, April 20. On that Sunday, Arsenal go to Ipswich Town in an earlier kickoff with Liverpool playing later.

It requires Liverpool to win against West Ham United and Arsenal to lose at Ipswich.

If those results happen, Liverpool could then win the title with a victory at Leicester City on April 20.

When are Liverpool most likely to win the title?

The best way to assess this is using points per game (PPG), essentially from across the season.

Liverpool's PPG is 2.35, while Arsenal's is 1.97.

If the PPG rate continues, Liverpool would be crowned champions when they play at home to Tottenham on April 27 in Gameweek 34.

Would Arsenal have to give Liverpool a guard of honor?

While it's not obligatory, the first team to play the champions after they are crowned does usually provide a guard of honor as they walk out.

If Liverpool win the title on Sunday, May 4, then Arsenal at home is the next fixture.

Could Liverpool seal the title against Arsenal?

Yes!

If Liverpool go into the game with a lead of four, five or six points, they would need to beat Arsenal to secure the title against them.

If Liverpool start the match with a lead of seven, eight or nine points, a draw or a win would seal the title.

What if Liverpool and Arsenal finish with identical records?

The normal order of tiebreakers is:

1) Points

2) Goal differential

3) Goals scored

In general, teams who still have identical records at this stage are deemed to occupy the same position in the table. Ergo, if the teams in 13th and 14th have the same points, goal differential and goals scored, then will both be ranked 13th.

But if the position determines the championship, European qualification or relegation then there's further tiebreakers.

4) Head-to-head record

The first game between Arsenal and Liverpool this season at the Emirates was a 2-2 draw. If the match at Anfield on the weekend of May 10 was also a draw, we would have to move onto a further tiebreaker.

5) Head-to-head away goals

As Liverpool scored twice at Arsenal, they hold a strong position. The only way we could move onto the final tiebreaker is if it was also 2-2 at Anfield.

6) A playoff!

The two teams would meet at a neutral venue to decide the championship. This almost happened in the 1995-95 season when the Premier League, the Football Association and Wembley had gone as far as printing tickets for a potential playoff between Manchester United and Newcastle United. Of course, it wasn't necessary as Man United won the title by four points.

Liverpool and Arsenal finishing with identical records might seem fanciful right now, as Liverpool have scored 15 more goals than the Gunners and they have a goal differential advantage of 12. However, if Arsenal were to bridge the points gap over the remaining matches, the goals scored and goal differential gap would naturally close.

OK, so when is the earliest Arsenal could win the title?

If Liverpool lost every match, and Arsenal won all their games, the Gunners could not be crowned champions until the final day.

How many players get a medal?

The champions get 40 commemorative medals for the manager, players and officials. Any player who has played five matches automatically qualifies for a medal; additional medals require consent of the Premier League Board, which will only be granted if the total number of players who have played five or more games exceeds 39.

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