Nijel Amos, Timothy Cheruiyot, Jakob Ingebrigtsen, Joshua Cheptegei and Getnet Wale are among the favourites for the men’s endurance track events while the likes of Elliot Giles, Josh Kerr and Marc Scott lead a strong British challenge

800m (Final: 21.05 August 4 (13.05 BST))

With two-time winner David Rudisha absent, there will be a new champion crowned in Tokyo. The surprise failure of world champion Donavan Brazier to qualify leaves the door open for Clayton Murphy to target USA’s 10th title in this event and the first since 1972. However, Britain – with six previous winners – and Kenya five, also have strong trios.

2016 Olympic champion: David Rudisha (KEN) 1:42.15
2019 World champion: Donavan Brazier (USA) 1:42.34.
World and Olympic record-holder: Rudisha 1:40.91 2012
World leader: Nijel Amos (BOT) 1:42.91

British interest: The British trio of Elliot Giles (1:44.05 outdoor seasonal best), Daniel Rowden (1:44.60) and Oliver Dustin (1:43.82 temporary world lead) are all potential medallists if they get in the right positions at the right time but such is the opposition it is likely only one of the three will win a medal. British Trials winner Giles has not yet quite replicated his European indoor record form (1:43.63) but his 1500m and mile PBs show his endurance has greatly improved.

Top contenders:
Clayton Murphy (USA): The shock 2016 Olympic bronze medallist surprised again in the US trials with a stunning 51.5 last lap in a 1:43.17 win as Donavan Brazier faded. It should be noted though that Murphy has run in seven meets this season and he lost the other six and had an average position was fifth.
Patryk Dobek (POL): After his European Indoor win he suggested he would return to his world championships finalist distance of 400m hurdles but after a 51.12 seasonal début he showed far better form at two laps highlighted by a temporary 1:43.73 world lead in Chorzow.
Nijel Amos (BOT): He has not won a global medal since the 2012 Olympic silver in 1:41.73 and did not run an 800m this season until June 26 with a 1:45.26 win which was then followed by a 1:42.91 world lead in Monaco. Has run 45.69 for 400m this summer and will be difficult to outkick. His 800m form is so elusive that World Athletics does not place him in their top 100 in their world rankings!

Outside bet: Michael Saruni (KEN): Apart from a NCAA Indoor title in 2018, he has won little of note until his Kenyan trials win but with 45.43 400m speed and a past 1:43.25, will be keen to make amends for the 2017 Worlds when selected but was unable to compete.

Top 10 entries by 2021 performances:
1:42.91 Nijel Amos BOT Monaco 9 Jul
1:43.04 Emmanuel Korir KEN Monaco 9 Jul
1:43.17 Clayton Murphy USA Eugene 21 Jun
1:43.26 Marco Arop CAN Monaco 9 Jul
1:43.44 Jesus López MEX Marietta 9 Jul
1:43.57 Ferguson Rotich KEN Monaco 9 Jul
1:43.73 Patryk Dobek POL Chorzów 20 Jun
1:43.82 Oliver Dustin GBR Nice 12 Jun
1:43.85 Isaiah Jewett USA Eugene 21 Jun
1:44.05 Elliot Giles GBR Stockholm 4 Jul

Prediction:
1 Nijel Amos (BOT) 1:43.15 (WA ranking NR)
2 Patryk Dobek (POL) 1:43.30 (21)
3 Emmanuel Korir (KEN) 1:43.36 (10)
4 Elliot Giles (GBR) 1:43.40 (5)
5 Clayton Murphy (USA) 1:43.45 (11)
6 Ferguson Rotich (KEN) 1:43.61 (2)
7 Michael Saruni (KEN) 1:43.77 (18)
8 Oliver Dustin (GBR) 1:44.05 (83)

Other final contenders:
Amel Tuka (BIH) (3)
Marco Arop (CAN) (6)
Bryce Hoppel (USA) (7)
Brandon McBride (CAN) (8)
Wesley Vasquez (PUR) (9)
Adrian Ben (ESP) (12)
Andreas Kramer (SWE) (20)
Pierre-Ambroise Bosse (FRA) (22)
Mateusz Borkowski (POL) (23)
Peter Bol (AUS) (27)
Benjamin Robert (FRA) (28)
Daniel Rowden (GBR) (34)
Isiah Jewett (USA) (40)
Tony Van Diepen (NED) (43)

Absent:
Donavan Brazier (USA) (1)
Wycliffe Kinyamal (KEN) (4)
Adam Kszczot (POL) (13)
Cornelius Tuwei (KEN) (14)
Jamie Webb (GBR) (15)
Collins Kipruto (KEN) (16)

1500m (Final: 20.40 August 7 (12.40 BST))

World champion and huge favourite Timothy Cheruiyot was only fourth in the Kenyan Trials and was temporarily out but got a late reprieve as the Kenyan selectors belatedly saw sense and Kenya hope to join the most successful nation Britain on five golds. USA are also on four wins though Matt Centrowitz’s 2016 win is the only one in the last 120 years and they also have another potential sprint winner in their trials winner Cole Hocker.

2016 Olympic champion: Matt Centrowitz (USA) 3:50.00
2019 World champion: Timothy Cheruiyot (KEN) 3:29.26.
World record-holder: Hicham El Guerrouj 3:26.00 1998
Olympic record-holder: Noah Ngeny (KEN) 3:32.07 2000
World leader: Timothy Cheruiyot 3:28.28

British interest: Again Britain have a strong trio with Jake Wightman and Josh Kerr, fifth and sixth respectively in Doha, likely to be even more competitive. Kerr (3:31.55 this summer) has shown better form than former European Junior champion Jake Heyward (3:33.99) and Wightman (3:34.67).

Top 10 entries by 2021 performances:
3:28.28 Timothy Cheruiyot KEN Monaco 9 Jul
3:29.25 Jakob Ingebrigtsen NOR Monaco 9 Jul
3:29.51 Stewart McSweyn AUS Monaco 9 Jul
3:30.30 Charles Simotwo KEN Monaco 9 Jul
3:30.42 Marcin Lewandowski POL Monaco 9 Jul
3:30.71 Samuel Tefera ETH Monaco 9 Jul
3:31.55 Josh Kerr GBR Portland 3 Jun
3:31.74 Azeddine Habz FRA Monaco 9 Jul
3:31.90 Teddese Lemi ETH Hengelo 8 Jun
3:31.95 Soufiane El Bakkali MAR Doha 28 May

Top contenders:
Matthew Centrowitz (USA): The defending champion is dangerous in a slow run race but hard to see it being as slow in 2016 and doesn’t look as sharp as five years ago but did run a blazing last 400m to finish second in the US Trials.
Timothy Cheruiyot (KEN): A late reprieve due to a technicality with one of the athletes who beat him in the Trials. Nairobi aside he has dominated his three races in Europe this season at Doha (3:30.48), Stockholm (3:32.30) and Monaco (3:28.28), the latter which dominates the 2021 rankings and he beat most likely challengers.
Jakob Ingebrigtsen (NOR): The timetable does just about allow a 5000m/1500m double with the finals on successive days but he might have been swayed by Cheruiyot’s return and the Kenyan’s clear win ahead of him in Monaco although he was returning from illness.
Stewart McSweyn (AUS): He contested the 5000m at the Doha World Championships but here focuses on the shorter event. Brave and fearless he is bound to be in contention for a medal until the last 100 metres but does he have the finishing speed of some of his rivals?

Outside bet: Cole Hocker (USA): The multiple NCAA champion and US trials winner possesses staggering finishing speed but without a qualifying mark had to rely on a World Athletics invitation. Unless it is a very fast pace, no one will out-kick him on the last lap if he is still in contact.

Prediction:
1 Timothy Cheruiyot (KEN) 3:32.65 (WA ranking 1)
2 Cole Hocker (USA) 3:33.98 (33)
3 Josh Kerr (GBR) 3:34.01 (21)
4 Jakob Ingebrigtsen (NOR) 3:34.13 (2)
5 Marcin Lewandowski (POL) 3:34.34 (3)
6 Jake Wightman (GBR) 3:34.55 (9)
7 Stewart McSweyn (AUS) 3:34.60 (5)
8 Matt Centrowitz (USA) 3:34.82 (18)
9 Ronald Musagala (UGA) 3:35.11 (4)
10 Charles Simotwo (KEN) 3:35.15 (14)
11 Samuel Tefera (ETH) 3:35.23 (8)
12 Oliver Hoare (AUS) 3:35.65 (10)

Other final contenders:
Filip Ingebrigtsen (NOR) (6)
Ayanleh Souleiman (DJI) (7)
Taoufik Makhloufi (ALG) (15)
Adam Ali Musab (QAT) (27)
Abel Kipsang (KEN) (28)
Jake Heyward (GBR) (46)
Nick Willis (NZL (50)
Tedesse Lemi (ETH) (64)
Yared Neguse (USA) (67)
Adel Mechaal (ESP) (76)

Absent:
Bethwell Birgen (KEN) (11)
Ronald Kwemoi (KEN) (17)
Mohamed Katir (ESP) (20)
Charle Da’vall Grice (GBR) (24)

5000m (Final: 21.50 August 6 (13.50 BST))

This should be an interesting battle between those seen more as 1500m athletes (Jakob Ingebrigtsen and Mohamed Katir) and those who will probably come from the 10,000m (Joshua Cheptegei,  Jakob Kiplimo and Mo Ahmed) and 5000m specialists such as Rio runner-up Paul Chelimo. Strangely, Kenya and Ethiopia field trios who have just a single major championships 5000m between the six of them and no medals. Finland, the most successful nation with seven golds, won’t have a participant.

2016 Olympic champion: Mo Farah (GBR) 13:03.30
2019 World champion: Muktar Edris (ETH)) 12:58.85.
World record-holder: Joshua Cheptegei (UGA) 12:35.36 2020
Olympic record-holder: Kenenisa Bekele(ETH) 12:57.82 2008
World leader: Jakob Ingebrigtsen (NOR) 12:48.45

British interest: Marc Scott has been in PB form this year and may need one or at least a 54 last lap just to make the final while Rio sixth-placer Andrew Butchart will also be hard pressed to survive very competitive heats.

Top 10 entries by 2021 performances:
12:48.45 Jakob Ingebrigtsen NOR Florence 10 Jun
12:50.12 Mohammed Ahmed CAN Florence 10 Jun
12:50.79 Mohamed Katir ESP Florence 10 Jun
12:51.93 Justyn Knight CAN Florence 10 Jun
12:53.28 Getnet Wale ETH Hengelo 8 Jun
12:54.22 Nibret Melak ETH Hengelo 8 Jun
12:54.69 Joshua Cheptegei UGA Florence 10 Jun
12:55.60 Jacob Kiplimo UGA Lucerne 29 Jun
12:55.88 Daniel Simiyu KEN Luzerne 29 Jun
12:57.71 Birhanu Balew Yemataw BRN Florence 10 Jun

Top contenders:
Jakob Ingebrigtsen (NOR): His European record at Florence where he beat many major potential rivals was expected to see him focus more on this event though he will bring in great 1500m speed.
Getnet Wale (ETH): Fourth in the world steeplechase final in Doha, this time he focuses on the flat despite a fast win in Ostrava. He ran 7:24.98 indoors for 3000m and won the Ethiopian trials in 12:53.28 but has never ran a major international 5000m. Looks the best of an Ethiopian trio as they have inexplicably left out world No.2 Hagos Gebrhiwet (12:49.02 this year), double world champion Muktar Edris and World Athletics top-ranked duo Selemon Barega and Yomif Kejelcha, who run the 10,000m.
Paul Chelimo (USA): The Rio silver medallist ranks 124th on 2021 times but a 52 last lap in the US Trials showed he still has one of the most potent kicks.
Mohamed Katir (ESP): The former Moroccan started the year with a moderate 13:50.19 PB but then ran 13:08.52 to win the first Diamond League in Gateshead and then 12:50.79 behind Ingebrigtsen in Florence. A near five-second 1500m PB of 3:28.76 ahead of the Norwegian in Monaco raised more eyebrows and a 7:27.64 3000m showed he has to be regarded as one of the favourites.
Joshua Cheptegei (UGA): The world record-holder will be contesting the event after competing at his better distance of 10,000m and along with his compatriot Jakob Kiplimo will surely not allow a slow pace with so many faster 1500m types especially after his sixth place in Florence.

Outside bet: Nicholas Kimeli (KEN): The only Kenyan or Ethiopian with championships experience having finished eighth in Doha in 2019 but won the Kenyan Trials in a fast 13:02.87 considering Nairobi’s altitude.

Prediction:
1 Jakob Ingebrigtsen (NOR) 12:55.45 (WA ranking 4)
2 Getnet Wale (ETH) 12:55.60 (17)
3 Mohamed Katir (ESP) 12:55.65 (3)
4 Jacob Kiplimo (UGA) 12:56.12 (NR)
5 Paul Chelimo (USA) 12:56.66 (12)
6 Joshua Cheptegei (UGA) 12:57.05 (8)
7 Nicholas Kimeli (KEN 13:00.12 (7)
8 Mo Ahmed (CAN) 13:01.45 (9)
9 Nibret Melak (ETH) 13:03.12 (NR)
10 Daniel Simiyu Ebenyo (KEN) 13:03.66 (23)
11 Milkesa Mengesha (ETH) 13:05.10 (NR)
12 Grant Fisher (USA) 13:08.14 (43)

Other final contenders:
Birhanu Balew (BRN) (13)
Justyn Knight (CAN) (14)
Andy Butchart (GBR) (16)
Morgan McDonald (AUS) (19)
Yemaneberhan Crippa (ITA) (20)
Jimmy Gressier (FRA) (21)
Marc Scott (GBR (26)
Pat Tiernan (AUS) (41)
Woody Kinkaid (USA) (49)
Samwel Masai (KEN (76)

Absent:
Selemon Barega (ETH) (1)
Yomif Kejelcha (ETH) (2)
Hagos Gebrhiwet (ETH) (5)
Telahun Bekele (ETH) (6)
Muktae Edris (ETH) (10)
Stewart McSweyn (AUS) (15)

10,000m (Final: 20.30 July 30 (12.30 BST))

The opening track final of the Games should be an all-African affair between the Ugandans, Ethiopians and Kenyans. The world record-holder: Joshua Cheptegei and the Kenyans will surely set a torrid pace but will he get any help from world leader and world half marathon champion Jakob Kiplimo?

Whatever the pace, the Ethiopians will be dangerous on the last lap and especially world indoor mile record-holder Yomif Kejelcha. Again Finland have the most golds with seven titles but will not have a representative.

2016 Olympic champion: Mo Farah (GBR) 27:05.17
2019 World champion: Joshua Cheptegei (UGA) 26:48.36
World record-holder: Cheptegei 26:11.00 2020
Olympic record-holder: Kenenisa Bekele (ETH) 27:01.47 2008
World leader: Jakob Kiplimo (UGA) 26:33.93
British team: Marc Scott qualified with ease but Sam Atkin was a less obvious selection having qualified with a 2020 time and then a solid British trials 5000m proving sufficient for current form but a fast 3000m at Gateshead shows he is moving in the right direction.

Top 10 entries by 2021 performances:
26:33.93 Jacob Kiplimo UGA Ostrava 19 May
26:49.51 Selemon Barega ETH Hengelo 8 Jun
26:49.73 Yomif Kejelcha ETH Hengelo 8 Jun
26:50.37 Berihu Aregawi ETH Hengelo 8 Jun
27:01.06 Geoffrey Kamworor KEN Nairobi 18 Jun
27:05.51 Rodgers Chumo KEN Nairobi 18 Jun
27:10.41 Marc Scott GBR San Juan Capistrano 20 Feb
27:11.01 Rhonex Kipruto KEN Maia 8 May
27:11.29 Grant Fisher USA San Juan Capistrano 20 Feb
27:12.78 Woody Kincaid USA San Juan Capistrano 20 Feb

Top contenders:
Joshua Cheptegei (UGA): He won the world title with a sprint finish but it was a fast race which he controlled in Mo Farah style  but his last lap speed looked vulnerable in the Florence 5000m and so will need to make it quick.
Jakob Kiplimo (UGA): His finishing speed looks superior to his compatriot and he has the better endurance judging by his world half marathon win.
Yomif Kejelcha (ETH): Cheptegei proved too strong in Doha and he had to settle for silver but he looks stronger this year and the world indoor mile record-holder will be hard to outkick.
Selemon Barega (ETH): The Doha 5000m runner-up runs his first Championships 10,000m having narrowly beaten Kejelcha in the Ethiopian trials in a fast 26:49.51.

Outside bet: Rhonex Kipruto (KEN): a late replacement for Kenyan trials winner Geoffrey Kamworor, the Doha bronze medallist and world 10km road record-holder should be able to handle any pace but is not renowned for his sprint finish.

Prediction:
1 Yomif Kejelcha (ETH) 26:51.50 (WA ranking 3)
2 Jacob Kiplimo (UGA) 26:51.55 (7)
3 Joshua Cheptegei (UGA) 26:51.98 (1)
4 Selemon Barega (ETH) 26:52.01 (10)
5 Rhonex Kipruto (KEN) 26:52.65 (2)
6 Rodgers Kwemoi Chumo (KEN) 27:00.65 (5)
7 Mohammed Ahmed (CAN) 27:01.56 (4)
8 Solomon Berihu Aregawi (ETH) 27:10.65 (20)
9 Yemaneberhan Crippa (ITA) 27:11.40 (12)
10 Marc Scott (GBR) 27:11.66 (24)
11 Grant Fisher (USA) 27:12.03 (27)
12 Morhad Amdouni (FRA) 27:12.45 (18)

Other Contenders:
Aron Kifle (ERI) (15)
Tatsuhiko Ito (JPN) (17)
Woody Kincaid (USA) (25)
Pat Tiernan (AUS) (26)
Julien Wanders (SUI) (37)
Isaac Kimeli (BEL) (38)
Joe Klecker (USA) (44)
Weldon Langat (KEN) (47)
Carlos Mayo (ESP (48)
Sam Atkin (GBR (82)

Absent:
Andamiak Belihu (ETH) (6)
Lopez Lomong (USA) (8)
Hagos Gebrhiwet (ETH) (9)
Birhanu Balew (BRN) (11)
Geoffrey Kamworor (KEN) (13)
Abadi Hadis (ETH) (14)
Stewart McSweyn (AUS (19)

3000 steeplechase (Final: 21.15 August 2 (13.15 BST))

Kenyans have dominated the Olympics and will be going for their 10th successive Olympic gold (or 12th if you don’t include Games they boycotted) but they won’t start as favourites for once especially with defending champion and double world winner Conseslus Kipruto absent. It is the Ethiopians who would have had the strongest trio but they have inexplicably left behind their record-holder and world silver medallist Lamecha Girma who after a 7:27 indoor 3000m ran a world-leading 8:07.75 in Monaco.

2016 Olympic champion: Conseslus Kipruto (KEN) 8:03.28
2019 World champion: Kipruto 8:01.35
World record-holder: Saif-Saeed Shaheen (QAT) 7:53.63
Olympic record-holder: Kipruto 8:03.28
World leader: Lamecha Girma (ETH) 8:07.75

British interest: If Doha finalist Zak Seddon shows his 2019 form and Phil Norman can replicate his qualifying performance then a final place is an outside possibility though even a substantial PB may not be enough.

Top 10 entries on 2021 performances:
8:07.81 Abraham Kibiwot KEN Monaco 9 Jul
8:08.54 Soufiane El Bakkali MAR Florence 10 Jun
8:09.37 Takele Bikila Tadese ETH Hengelo 8 Jun
8:09.47 Getnet Wale ETH Ostrava 19 May
8:11.17 Djilali Bedrani FRA Monaco 9 Jul
8:11.65 Mohammed Tindoufti MAR Florence 10 Jun
8:12.04 Ahmed Abdelwahed ITA Florence 10 Jun
8:12.11 Abraham Sime ETH Hengelo 8 Jun
8:14.29 Osama Zoghlami ITA Florence 10 Jun
8:14.69 Hillary Bor USA Monaco 9 Jul

Top contenders:
Leonard Bett (KEN): With defending champion Kipruto dropping out the trials, the 20 year-old former world youth champion and a very young Doha finalist won the event and heads the Kenyan challenge though only ran 8:31.52 for second in a tactical race at Gateshead.
Getnet Wale (ETH): Only fourth in Doha in 2019 but much improved since and he has run 8:09.47 this summer but more impressively 12:53.28 for 5000m and 7:24.98 for 3000m indoors. He was only originally named for the Ethiopian 5000m team but was a late replacement.
Soufiane El Bakkali (MAR): The double world medallist who was fourth in Rio, probably worried his opponents more with his 3:31.95 1500m in Doha than his early 8:08.54 world lead in the chase.
Abraham Kibiwot (KEN): Seventh in Rio, a second place in Monaco behind the non-selected Girma actually makes him the fastest athlete entered on 2021 times but only seventh in Gateshead in May so won’t be a factor if it’s cold or wet!

Outside bet: Takele Bikila Tadese (ETH): The 18-year-old raw talent has already run 8:09.37 this summer and is only going to get faster.

Prediction:
1 Getnet Wale (ETH) 8:03.45 (WA ranking 3)
2 Soufiane El Bakkali (MAR) 8:04.23 (2)
3 Bikila Tadese Takele (ETH) 8:05.10 (12)
4 Leonard Bett (KEN) 8:05.65 (11)
5 Abraham Kibiwot (KEN) 8:06.30 (6)
6 Benjamin Kigen (KEN) 8:07.05 (4)
7 Hillary Bor (USA) 8:07.85 (8)
8 Djilali Bedrani (FRA) 8:09.02 (7)
9 Mohammed Tindoufti (MAR) 8:10.65 (16)
10 Abraham Sime (ETH) 8:11.05 (40)
11 Ryuji Miura (JPN) 8:13.10 (19)
12 Benard Keter (USA) 8:17.45 (29)

Other Contenders:
Fernando Carro (ESP) (9)
Ahmed Abdelwahed (ITA) (14)
Matthew Hughes (CAN) (17)
Avinash Sable (IND) (20)
Osama Zoghlami (ITA) (21)
Topi Raitanen (FIN) (22)
Kosei Yamaguchi (JPN) (24)
Albert Chemutai (UGA) (25)
Yemane Haileselassie (ERI) (27)
Mason Ferlic (USA (28)
Daniel Arce (ESP) (30)
Zak Seddon (GBR) (36)
Phil Norman (GBR) (42)

Absent:
Lamecha Girma (ETH) (1)
Conseslus Kipruto (KEN) (5)
Chala Beyo (ETH) (10)
Stanley Kebenei (USA) (13)