Video Assistant Referee causes controversy every week in the Premier League, but how are decisions made, and are they correct?

After each weekend, we take a look at the major incidents to examine and explain the process both in terms of VAR protocol and the Laws of the Game.

- How VAR decisions have affected every Prem club in 2023-24
- VAR in the Premier League: Ultimate guide

In this week's VAR Review: Should Robert Sánchez have conceded a penalty for his challenge on Gabriel Jesus? Plus handball decisions involving William Saliba, Michael Keane and Scott McTominay.

Chelsea 2-2 Arsenal

Possible penalty: Sanchez on Jesus

What happened: Arsenal won a free kick on the right in the 60th minute. Martin Ødegaard delivered into the area and the ball was met by Takehiro Tomiyasu, who headed over the bar. However, goalkeeper Robert Sánchez had rushed out and collided with Gabriel Jesus when trying to punch the aerial ball. Referee Chris Kavanagh restarted play with a goal kick to Chelsea.

VAR decision: No penalty.

VAR review: Understandably, Arsenal fans have argued that the challenge is no different to that of Manchester United goalkeeper André Onana on Wolverhampton Wanderers attacker Sasa Kalajdzic. That incident came in the final moments of the opening game of the season at Old Trafford, with the VAR failing to intervene and advise a penalty kick. It led to PGMOL acknowledging that an error had been made and a spot kick should have been awarded.

But there are differences that certainly mean PGMOL won't react as they did to Onana, by taking the referee and VAR off the next round of games.

The VAR must decide whether the goalkeeper is making a genuine attempt to play the ball. That, of course, doesn't mean a goalkeeper can play in a reckless manner -- which many will feel Sanchez did and it could easily have been given. Unlike Onana it's more of a borderline situation, in terms of how VAR is applied for a clear and obvious error. Sanchez collides with a group of players, including Jesus and his own teammates, in trying to punch clear.

There was also some holding of the shirt on Tomiyasu by Thiago Silva, but certainly not enough for a penalty.

While Onana was initially trying to play the ball, the Manchester United goalkeeper had become aware he had no chance of winning it and pulled Kalajdzic to the ground with both arms. It was an additional action to foul an opponent after failing to win an aerial ball.

Each week, the VAR Review has many incidents that have created a big reaction on social media and among pundits. When these are assessed by the Independent Key Match Incidents Panel within the framework of the laws, few are judged to be errors. Indeed, in the past week before the international break there were a series of controversial situations -- including red cards for Pascal Groß and Mateo Kovacic, and a penalty against Matt Doherty -- but no VAR errors were logged.

Possible red card: Palmer challenge on Jesus

What happened: Cole Palmer was booked in the eighth minute after catching Jesus with a late challenge. But should the referee have shown the red card? The VAR initiated a check.

VAR decision: No red card.

VAR review: This clearly wasn't a good tackle from the Chelsea midfielder but it certainly doesn't reach the threshold for a VAR intervention for a red card.

The contact was low, not above the ankle, and without excessive force. A yellow card was an acceptable disciplinary outcome and the Independent Key Match Incidents Panel will certainly support it. Indeed, the panel said Kovacic's tackle on Ødegaard was not a clear and obvious error for the VAR to intervene with a red card -- though referee Michael Oliver should have made the decision on-field, both for the initial red and the possible second yellow card.

Possible penalty: Handball by Saliba

What happened: Raheem Sterling crossed the ball into the 11th minute, with Mykhailo Mudryk attempting to get a header on goal under pressure from William Saliba. Chelsea players demanded a penalty when the ball hit the Arsenal defender, but referee Kavanagh played on.

VAR decision: Penalty, scored by Palmer.

VAR review: It's one where the intended application of the law and what fans feel is fair collide. But we now have several examples to show how such decisions are judged.

The rule of thumb is simple: if the arm is fully extended from the body there's a very high probability a penalty will be awarded.

While the expected position of the arms for a player's action and proximity are important, these are only mitigating factors which will be superseded if the arm is well away from the body, creating an obvious barrier.

It can be expected that Saliba's arm would be in that position when jumping, but at the same time he is considered to be taking a risk in having the arm fully extended.

We can compare it to the penalty appeal not given against West Ham United's James Ward-Prowse at Luton Town: while his arm was up it wasn't fully extended or raised above for head, and for that reason he escaped a VAR review.

Then there's Nicolas Jackson, who also avoided a penalty review on the opening weekend of the season against Liverpool, largely because the ball was flicked onto his hand from close range. So we're back to proximity? Partly, but also Jackson's arm was close to his body rather than being fully extended.

Compare those to the spot kick Wolves gave away at Luton, when João Gomes made a block and the ball deflected onto his arm, which was raised above his head. Despite the ball being diverted off his own body, the arm being so high nullified that mitigating factor.

As explained in a VAR Review in August, there are always likely to be borderline decisions and that was the case with Cristian Romero's possible handball for Tottenham Hotspur against Manchester United. While Romero's arm was away from the body, he was saved by it not being fully extended -- unlike with Saliba and Gomes.

The panel has not yet judged any VAR decision over a defensive handball decision to be incorrect this season.

Liverpool 2-0 Everton

Possible penalty: Foul by Patterson on Diaz

What happened: Luis Díaz wanted a penalty in the 70th minute when he felt he was caught by Nathan Patterson. Referee Craig Pawson wasn't interested in a spot kick.

VAR decision: No penalty.

VAR review: This remains consistent with VAR reviews for penalties this season. While there might have been a small amount of contact by Patterson as he slid in to block a likely cross by Diaz, it didn't seem to be enough to make him go up into the air.

While we have seen penalties awarded by the referee for a small amount of contact -- see Dominik Szoboszlai going to ground under a challenge from AFC Bournemouth's Joe Rothwell -- that usually isn't the case from the VAR.

Possible penalty: Handball by Keane

What happened: Diaz attempted to cross into the area, and the ball hit the outstretched arm of Michael Keane. Referee Pawson chose not to award the penalty but the VAR, David Coote, soon became involved (watch here.)

VAR decision: Penalty, scored by Mohamed Salah.

VAR review: An easy decision for the VAR, and one that should really have been made by the on-field team without the need for the video assistant.

The ball may have hit Keane from close proximity but as was the case with Saliba, the arm was fully extended away from the body. It's an obvious offence by Keane and always going to be penalised with a penalty kick.

Sheffield United 1-2 Man United

Possible penalty: Handball by McTominay

What happened: Sheffield United were awarded a penalty in the 31st minute when Scott McTominay was judged to have handled a cross from James McAtee. The VAR, John Brooks, checked that the decision from referee Michael Oliver was correct.

VAR decision: Penalty stands, scored by Oliver McBurnie.

VAR review: While McTominay's arm was close to his body there was a clear movement toward the ball. That makes it a deliberate act and a penalty.

If the ball had hit McTominay's arm while he was trying to withdraw it into his body, that wouldn't have been a spot kick.

Brentford 3-0 Burnley

Possible offside overturn: Ajer on Maupay goal

What happened: Brentford thought they had taken the lead in the seventh minute. Bryan Mbeumo took the free kick, it was helped back across the area by Nathan Collins and headed home by Neal Maupay. However, the flag immediately went up for offside.

VAR decision: No goal.

VAR review: Much of the confusion around this decision came from a mistake with the big screen inside the stadium. It displayed that the offside decision was against Collins, but it was actually Kristoffer Ajer who had been flagged.

When Mbeumo plays the ball, Ajer is holding back Burnley's Lyle Foster and the assistant has judged this prevented an opponent from challenging for the ball from an offside position. It's doubtful the VAR would have got involved to disallow the goal for this, but it's also subjectively an acceptable decision.

The assistant doesn't have to feel that Foster will win the ball or even decide to make a challenge, he's only judging that the player in an offside position has affected his ability to do so.

Some parts of this article include information provided by the Premier League and PGMOL.

Michigan is the new consensus betting favorite to win the College Football Playoff and also boasts the Heisman Trophy favorite at sportsbooks around the nation.

The Wolverines moved ahead of Georgia in the national championship odds over the weekend. They're +220 at Caesar Sportsbooks, followed by the two-time defending champion Bulldogs at +280. It's the first time this season a team other than Georgia has been the favorite, and the first time in the playoff era that Michigan has been the national title favorite.

Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy became the consensus betting favorite to win the Heisman Trophy at sportsbooks after throwing for four touchdowns in the Wolverines' 49-0 rout of Michigan State on Saturday. McCarthy is the Heisman favorite at +230, followed by Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. at +280 at Caesars Sportsbook.

Georgia had been the national title favorite since November and began this season with a sizable lead over Michigan in the title odds. But the loss of star tight end Brock Bowers and a few sluggish performances by the Bulldogs helped the Wolverines narrow the gap.

Michigan's ascension in the betting market comes amid an investigation into an alleged sign-stealing scheme. Oddsmakers downplayed the impact of the allegations on the betting market and instead pointed to the Wolverines' upcoming November schedule as the biggest test. Michigan is at Penn State on Nov 11 and finishes the regular season by hosting No. 3 Ohio State.

"They're looking good," Adam Pullen, assistant director of trading for Caesars Sportsbook, said of the Wolverines. "But we're waiting a couple of weeks and they play Penn State and then Ohio State to see how really good."

More bets have been placed on Michigan to win the national championship than any other team at BetMGM sportsbooks. The Wolverines have attracted over twice as many bets as Georgia.

Georgetown women's basketball coach Tasha Butts died Monday after a two-year battle with breast cancer, the school's athletic director said.

The 41-year-old coach was diagnosed with advanced stage breast cancer in 2021. She stepped away from coaching Georgetown last month. Her diagnosis inspired the Tasha Tough campaign which has brought awareness and raised money to bring quality care to women who can't afford it through the Kay Yow Cancer Fund.

She came to Georgetown from Georgia Tech this past April after a long coaching and professional WNBA career. She joined the Georgia Tech women's basketball staff as an assistant coach in April 2019, and was promoted to associate head coach two years later.

"I am heartbroken for Tasha's family, friends, players, teammates and colleagues," said Georgetown athletic director Lee Reed. "When I met Tasha, I knew she was a winner on the court, and an incredible person whose drive, passion and determination was second to none. She exhibited these qualities both as a leader and in her fight against breast cancer.

"This is a difficult time for the entire Georgetown community, and we will come together to honor her memory."

Butts replaced James Howard as Georgetown coach in April, saying she was "super excited about this new journey."

A native of Milledgeville, Georgia, Butts played college basketball at Tennessee. She was part of teams that went 124-17 from 2000 to 2004 and reached the Sweet 16 in all four seasons, including back-to-back appearances in the national championship game her junior and senior seasons.

Butts spent one season in the WNBA with the Minnesota Lynx and also played internationally before going into coaching as an assistant at Duquesne in 2007. She then spent three years at UCLA , eight years at LSU and then moved to Georgia Tech in 2019 before being hired as head coach at Georgetown.

Indiana Pacers guard/forward Aaron Nesmith has agreed on a three-year, $33 million contract extension, his agent, Mike Lindeman of Excel Sports Management, told ESPN on Monday.

Nesmith, the 10th player in the 2020 NBA draft class to agree on a rookie scale contract extension, gets his deal ahead of the Monday night deadline for deals.

Nesmith averaged 10.1 points and started 60 games for the Pacers after arriving in a trade from the Boston Celtics. He shot 40% on 3-pointers from February until the end of the season, per ESPN Stats and Information.

Nesmith, the 14th overall pick out of Vanderbilt, joined Tyrese Haliburton on the Pacers in agreeing to rookie scale extensions this offseason.

Philadelphia 76ers guard James Harden, who missed the final preseason game on Friday after skipping multiple practices, remains away from the team as it prepares for practice Monday, sources told ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski.

It is increasingly unclear if Harden will be available to play in the Sixers' regular-season opener against the Milwaukee Bucks on Thursday, sources told ESPN.

Harden, who has sought a trade since picking up his $35.6 million player option for the 2023-24 season, did not show for practices on Wednesday or Thursday before he was ruled out of Friday night's preseason finale vs. the Atlanta Hawks.

The Sixers on Friday said Harden was away from the team because of a personal matter.

Harden has been frustrated for months that his wish to be traded to the LA Clippers has yet to be granted. He arrived late to training camp and continued to practice with the 76ers prior to missing practices last week.

Harden, who has been tied at the hip with 76ers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey since the latter brought him to the Houston Rockets in a trade with the Oklahoma City Thunder prior to the 2012-13 season, called Morey a "liar" during a shoe event in China in August.

Harden said on Oct. 13 that there was no chance of that relationship being repaired, and he repeatedly referred to Morey as "the front office" without saying his name.

"No," Harden said flatly, when asked directly if he thought things could get patched up with Morey. "This is not even about this situation -- this is in life. When you lose trust in someone, it's like a marriage ... you lose trust in someone, you know what I mean? It's pretty simple."

Harden has been one of the league's top players for the past decade, winning three scoring titles and the 2018 league MVP award. He led the league in assists last season.

ESPN's Tim Bontemps and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

The 2023-24 NBA season is upon us, and before things tip off Tuesday, we asked our betting experts about their best bets and favorite futures picks for the season ahead.

Erin Dolan, Andre Snellings, Eric Moody, Eric Karabell, Jim McCormick and Steve Alexander provide the bets they are making this season.

Note: All odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of Oct. 22.

What are your favorite bets to make on teams to win the Western Conference?

The Lakers made it to the Western Conference finals last season, yet find themselves fourth in the Western Conference odds market. I'll happily play the Lakers +700 to win the West. Rob Pelinka brought back all the key pieces acquired at the deadline last year that spurred their late-season surge. L.A. also added G Gabe Vincent from Miami and big man Christian Wood as some depth behind Anthony Davis. This team is still led by LeBron James. As long as he's playing, his team is capable of winning it all. Great value on the Lakers. -- Fulghum

The Lakers (+700) are a great value. Post-trade deadline, Los Angeles played like a completely different team and reached the Western Conference finals. LeBron James is still a very capable player despite being 38 years old, and Anthony Davis is one of the best big men in the game. In the offseason, the Lakers upgraded their role players, with Gabe Vincent being a significant addition. In what will most likely be James' last chance to win a championship, Los Angeles enters this season with improved shooting and adequate depth in the wide-open Western Conference. -- Moody

Denver Nuggets (+245). This is both chalky and boring, but until someone knocks them from their throne, I think it makes sense to roll with them. Nikola Jokic is the most effective player in the game, and Denver is deep with guys like Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Reggie Jackson, Christian Braun, Justin Holiday and Zeke Nnaji. It's not exciting, but I'll take the Nuggets here. -- Alexander

Golden State Warriors (+600). The Warriors still have their winning core of Steph, Klay and Draymond, along with their winning coach Steve Kerr. Very veteran Chris Paul joining the crew feels like a Ray Bourque move to me, as a future Hall of Famer finally gets his ring before retirement. It doesn't even matter how good Golden State plays during the regular season. Come playoff time, as always, watch out. -- Karabell

Los Angeles Lakers (+700). I picked a Lakers vs Nuggets rematch as the Western Conference Finals, and I think this time the Lakers will have a better chance to win. The Lakers, last season, were so far behind after a slow start to the season with their mismatched lineup that they had to go on a 3-month-long sprint of winning to even make the WCF. They were clearly one of the two best teams in the West last season after the trades, and this offseason they retained their primary players and added even more depth. While the Nuggets are a solid choice to repeat, the Lakers are right there and picking them offers much more juice than going chalk. -- Snellings

The Memphis Grizzlies (+1200) broke out before many expected; an elite blend of transition efficiency and depth took a hit not just with injuries and free agency, but also Ja Morant's off-court issues. Then again, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. are ascending and in their pre-primes, Morant returns after a third of the season, and Marcus Smart brings veteran leadership alongside Dillon Brooks' gamesmanship. Wasn't this the emergent team of this era, prior to Morant's suspension? Yes it was. I don't know why my peers are confident about an aging -- if revamped -- Lakers rotation over a far younger team with at least three true rising young stars. In addition to the Grizz, the LA Clippers (+1200) are my other favorite pick for the West. I have bet this outcome firmly trusting the "Beard" will soon be back home in Los Angeles, where he learned to become a key playmaker. The risk is real, but the payoff is clear, with the Clippers positioning a consolidated core of stardom via the Sixers' drama. Lest we forget, few teams have the ceiling of a "healthy" Kawhi collective. -- McCormick

What are your favorite bets to make on teams to win the Eastern Conference?

It's not flashy nor are the odds fun but I think the Celtics (+175) are nearly a lock to win the East. The addition of Jrue Holiday to Boston and taking him out of the equation in Milwaukee should put the Celtics in the driver's seat. The Pacers (+12,500) seem to have a perfect combination of youth and veterans, and I could see Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner, Bennedict Mathurin, Bruce Brown, Buddy Hield & Co. shocking the world. Might be a fun way to spend $10. -- Alexander

Milwaukee Bucks (+160). The Bucks have had a very successful offseason, and I find myself drawn to them as a moth to a flame. The Bucks fired coach Mike Budenholzer after getting swept by the Heat, and at that time, Antetokounmpo wasn't happy with the direction of the team. The Greek Freak's frown turned into a smile when Milwaukee traded for Damian Lillard, one of the best scoring guards in the league. The Knicks (+1600) have one of their best rosters in decades if you are looking for a long shot with legitimacy in the East. New York boasts a strong bench and is guided by an experienced head coach in Tom Thibodeau. The Knicks are also led by one of the league's premier point guards in Jalen Brunson, who averaged career highs in points, assists, steals and triples last season. -- Moody

The obvious one to me is Miami (+1200), because they always seem to find a way to overachieve, having won the East in two of the past four seasons. How about the odds on the Raptors (+6000)? It makes it seem like they may be a lottery team, but I think this team can knock off one of the top East squads in the playoffs, with Pascal Siakam, Scottie Barnes and an underrated defensive unit. The Raptors looked good with Jakob Poeltl at center. Now they have him all season. Anyone can take the Celtics/Bucks. Be bold! -- Karabell

Milwaukee Bucks (+160). The Bucks' trade for Damian Lillard was somewhat reminiscent of the deal that brought Kevin Garnett to the Celtics in 2007, in the sense of a hungry long-time NBA star getting the opportunity to play for a contender. Way back then, Garnett was the MVP that made the team true contenders, whereas this time Lillard joins arguably the best player in the league in Giannis Antetokounmpo. I think the pairing meshes perfectly and revitalizes Antetkounmpo, who has struggled with injuries, as has his main lieutenant, Khris Middleton, over the past two seasons. While the Celtics look formidable as well, I think a healthy Bucks team is the class of the league. -- Snellings

Philadelphia 76ers (+800). The Sixers finally have this thing called a modern coach; they also have an ascendant Kentucky guard talent in Tyrese Maxey and this Embiid dude who won the MVP. Is this a ridiculous outcome to consider? Of course, but my ability to emotionally hedge is historic. That said, I love Nick Nurse's attacking defensive scheme and how it suddenly aligns with the likes of Paul Reed, Jaden Springer, and even Mo Bamba and Embiid. The 76ers were third in net rating last season even amid a post-prime James Harden; this isn't as unrealistic as it sounds. -- McCormick

What are your favorite bets to make on teams to win the NBA championship?

I can't quit the new-look Boston Celtics (+380) and I think the defense of Jrue Holiday may push them over the edge this season. Peyton Pritchard has looked good in the preseason and it will be a luxury for them to bring a guy like Al Horford off the bench. He's as old as they come (37) but has proven to still be effective when he's on the court. The key to the whole thing might be the health of Kristaps Porzingis, who should be more effective as a fourth-scoring option than an alpha player as he's been in the past. I just wish the odds were a little more enticing. -- Alexander

Phoenix Suns (+600). Phoenix brought in highly regarded coach Frank Vogel with a championship résumé, who has also assembled an exceptional staff. He has the most formidable trio in the league in Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. The Suns also have enough role players on the roster for Vogel to create defensive rotations that can help Phoenix close out games, which will be crucial for the team to make a playoff run to the Finals. With so much talent, the Suns can compete with any team in the league. -- Moody

Cleveland Cavaliers (+3000). The Cavs are somehow an afterthought in the wake of a first-round flame-out, but does anyone remember that they had the No. 1 defense, No. 8 offense and finished No. 2 in net rating last year? With plus odds to secure the conference, the Cavs are almost obvious by statistical standards to take another step. Net rating has been predictive of long-term success above having a singularly good offense or defense, of which this team had both last season. Have we mentioned no one on this roster is near the end of their prime and that Evan Mobley is about to become a superstar? Good times. -- McCormick

Milwaukee Bucks (+400). The Giannis/Lillard combo projects to be the most unstoppable offensive duo in the NBA, with both able to warp opposing defenses in opposing directions. Giannis forces opposing defenses to build the wall around the rim to slow his dominant drives, but Lillard is the most dangerous threat from distance this side of Stephen Curry. Together, they force opponents to pick their poison. And if Middleton is healthy, he gives them a third offensive engine in addition to strong role players. And none of this speaks on the defenses, where Giannis and Brook Lopez are both Defensive Player of the Year candidates that should anchor another strong unit. Again, if they stay reasonably healthy, I think they are the best team in the NBA this season. -- Snellings

If I want to play it safe, the Denver Nuggets (+420) still seem like the best bet to escape the West. Denver brought back most of its team, and young players such as Christian Braun and Julian Strawther should contribute. -- Karabell

What are your favorite OVER or UNDER bets to make on team win totals?

San Antonio Spurs OVER 29.5 wins. This may be one of the top defensive clubs now with Victor Wembanyama blocking everything, and the move to Jeremy Sochan as a point forward is significant. The Spurs win at least 35 games.

Meanwhile, the Raptors (36.5 wins) and Jazz (35.5 wins) are playoff teams, so take each over there. No, really. Each will win at least half their games.

As for a few under picks, the Pelicans (43.5 wins, take the under) is predicated on Zion Williamson staying healthy. Good luck there. And Memphis (43.5 wins, go under) is without Ja Morant for 25 games and C Steven Adams is out for the season. They may not win half their games. -- Karabell

Denver Nuggets OVER 52.5 wins (-110). The Nuggets won 53 games last season, but they were significantly better than a 53-win team. They had the top-seed all-but-locked up in March, and their MVP Nikola Jokic didn't play more than 27 minutes in any game after March 27 (missing five outright) with the Nuggets coasting home at 2 - 5 down the stretch. The Nuggets then went on to rampage through the playoffs with a 16 - 3 record indicative of the type of dominance they're capable of. This season, the West should be more challenging, causing the Nuggets to have to stay focused and play closer to their level for longer into the season. Which should send them comfortably over 52.5 wins, health allowing. -- Snellings

Milwaukee Bucks win total OVER 54.5 total wins (+100). The Bucks are tied with the Celtics for the highest win total posted for the upcoming season. That makes sense considering Milwaukee and Boston were the only two teams to have over 55 wins last season. The Bucks had an impressive 58 regular season wins last season with Giannis playing 63 regular season games and Khris Middleton playing 33 regular season games. Now the Bucks add NBA super star Damian Lillard to the lineup, who averaged a career high 32 points per game in Portland. Milwaukee is a good team in the regular season, hitting over 54.5 wins in 3 of the last 5 seasons. The team will be working with new head coach Adrian Griffin and the Bucks have one of the oldest rosters in the league, but there is enough talent to hit over 54.5 wins at even money. -- Dolan

Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 48.5 wins (-115). Let's face it, there is a lot of uncertainty in the City of Brotherly Love right now. There's a messy divorce going on between James Harden and the 76ers. A rumor is circulating about Joel Embiid wanting to be traded. Even if they stay on the team by some miracle, both have robust injury histories. They were also terrible at rebounding last season, which isn't good in an Eastern Conference with players like Clint Capela, Julius Randle, and Antetokounmpo. The 76ers didn't do enough to fix the problem even with the addition of Mo Bamba. There's a strong chance Philadelphia underperforms. -- Moody

San Antonio Spurs OVER 29.5 | Orlando Magic OVER 38.5 | Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 28.5

The Spurs won 22 games last season and then added once-in-a-lifetime prospect Victor Wembanyama to their roster. Can he add 8+ wins this season? I'm guessing he can, especially under the guidance of Gregg Popovich.

The Magic won 36 games last season, led by NBA Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero. Around him, the Magic have a solid group of players like the Wagner twins, Wendell Carter, Jalen Suggs, Cole Anthony, and Markelle Fultz. If Jonathan Isaac can FINALLY stay healthy enough to contribute consistent minutes, this could be a team that wins 40+ and earns a 7 or 8 seed in the East.

The Blazers have embraced the full tank and dealt away Dame Lillard (and Jusuf Nurkic). The Western Conference is absolutely LOADED with playoff caliber teams. The worst teams in this conference are going to struggle big time to win games this season and I believe Portland could be the worst of the bunch. They'll be fun to watch with Shaedon Sharpe and Scoot Henderson, but winning games won't happen often. -- Fulghum

Dallas Mavericks UNDER 43.5 (-115). I don't see how the Mavs are going to win 44 games with both Luka Doncic (calf) and Kyrie Irving (groin) already gimpy, combined with them having a lackluster crew to pass the ball to, led by Grant Williams who came over from Boston. The Mavs' depth chart is a mess and I just don't see how Luka and Irving can get to 44 wins all by themselves in a tough Western Conference. The Pacers over 38.5 (-135) wins is enticing as I love their combination of youth and experience, along with having Tyrese Haliburton leading the way. They're going to make a little noise in the East this year and if they can keep Buddy Hield happy and effective, all the better. -- Alexander

Memphis Grizzlies OVER 43.5. This just feels like a free square: the drama around Morant isn't as costly as it feels. That's a bold statement but it's also wild to me that the Timberwolves have a higher implied outcome than this roster. I keep going back to net rating, but, hey, it's a measure of margins over a marathon, and Memphis was No. 4 amid tumult last season. Desmond Bane is about to be an All-Star (bet that one, too), while Jaren Jackson Jr. has every factor repeat as DPOY (hey, another bet). Why is this team so disrespected in a division rife with youth and turnover? -- McCormick

Indiana Pacers OVER 38.5. Rick Carlise propelled a young Luka Doncic-led Dallas Mavericks team to the best offense ever (at the time) and then aided Tyrese Haliburton to, you guessed it, Doncic-like efficiency. The difference? This team has dudes who play defense, and Myles Turner (+5000) might just be an elite call to take over on that end. In a fluid East, this team has the juice. -- McCormick

Are there any player props you feel very strongly about?

Jabari Smith is going to become a far more efficient, explosive scorer, and may average 18 PPG. His Most Improved Player odds (+2200) are too low. Also, since the Wizards' Jordan Poole is going to score a ton, look for new PG Tyus Jones to pile on the assists. Could he lead the league (+2500)? Why not? And I think Wembenyama has a legitimate shot at Defensive Player of the Year award (+1500). He and Chet Holmgren (+1800) are underrated. -- Karabell

Jordan Poole over 25.0 PPG (-130); Desmond Bane over 22.5 points (-115). Poole averaged 24.6 PPG in 43 starts with the Warriors last season, including 27.9 PPG during an 11-game stretch from December 16 through January 7, the first time Stephen Curry was sidelined for an extended stretch. Poole has outrageous volume-scoring potential on a Wizards team lacking scorers or the disciplined structure he operated under with the Warriors.

Bane flashed his scoring upside last season when, after a slow start, he went on a nine-game span averaging 28.0 PPG on 52.4 FG%. Immediately after, he injured his toe and missed the next 17 games. He returned and played the rest of the season, but was slowed until he got the toe surgically repaired in May. This season, Bane returns healthy and is going to be the primary scoring option for the Grizzlies for at least the first 25 games of the season while Ja Morant is suspended. He has legitimate 25 PPG upside. -- Snellings

Jayson Tatum is going to lead the league in scoring (+750). The ball-hoggy characteristics of Marcus Smart aren't inherent in Jrue Holiday's process. Beyond that, Tatum paced the entire league in total points last season and is already adding foul-drawing savvy to his volume-driven scoring profile. Have we mentioned that he's 25 and a top-five scorer? What a good number on a very possible outcome. -- McCormick

Chet Holmgren Rookie of the Year (+350). Holmgren is going to average two blocks and over a 3-pointer made per game, which right away puts him in the Manute Bol tier of unicorns. Then again, he's also going to challenge for playmaking and scoring production. Let's also consider the rich history (Blake Griffin, Ben Simmons) of dudes who took home trophies after a red-shirt rookie runway. -- McCormick

Victor Wembanyama +450 to lead the league in blocks. This one is very intriguing to me, especially after watching him running the court and blocking shots from all angles all over the court. He has an eight-foot wingspan, isn't scared of the spotlight and, so far, is living up to the tremendous hype that has accompanied him to the NBA. It may be tough for him to beat guys like Jaren Jackson Jr., Chet Holmgren and Walker Kessler, but I wouldn't be surprised if he pulls it off. -- Alexander

LaMelo Ball scoring average over 8.5 assists (-125). Every season, Ball has increased the number of assists he averages per game. The Hornets had one of the worst records in the league, but history won't repeat itself this season. With Miles Bridge back, Mark Williams following up his breakout season, and Brandon Miller drafted with the No. 2 pick in the NBA Draft, Ball could operate more a facilitator rather than as a playmaker. Averaging 8.5 assists per game last season, Ball is well positioned to meet or exceed this mark this year. -- Moody

Walker Kessler rebounding average over 11.0 rebounds per game (+110). Kessler is the Jazz's undisputed center this season. The rookie played well last season, especially after the All-Star Break, when he got into the starting lineup. Kessler averaged 10.8 rebounds per game last season. In this offseason, the Jazz drafted Taylor Hendricks and also added John Collins, both of whom should get plenty of playing time. Both are not true centers, which benefits Kessler. -- Moody

Jordan Poole regular season scoring leader (+2500). Poole is going to feast with the Wizards this season. Over the past eight months, the Wizards have experienced numerous roster changes. Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis, who each accumulated a high number of field attempts, are no longer on the team. Only Kyle Kuzma will command a high usage rate on the Wizards roster. During the last two seasons, Poole averaged 22.5 points per game when starting for the Warriors. With the Wizards, he's going to be provided with many field goal attempts, so he's very likely to surpass that number. -- Moody

It's been 133 days since Nikola Jokic and Denver Nuggets beat the Miami Heat for their first NBA championship, but now it's time to gear up for another incredible season.

We've seen some big offseason storylines: Damian Lillard is now part of a superstar duo with Giannis Antetokounmpo with the Milwaukee Bucks, Chris Paul joined the Golden State Warriors and James Harden still wants out of Philadelphia.

Expect to see talented rookies take center stage. San Antonio Spurs' sensation Victor Wembanyama already has us stunned with his unbelievable moves, but don't sleep on Oklahoma City's Chet Holmgren or the Portland Trail Blazers' Scoot Henderson to make waves.

And we have to mention The King. Now in his 21st season as a pro, LeBron James wants to make perhaps one final run at the title with a revamped Los Angeles Lakers squad.

Let's preview all 30 teams with where they stand and what to expect ahead of the 2023-24 season.

Note: Team rankings are based on where members of our panel (ESPN's Kendra Andrews, Tim Bontemps, Jamal Collier, Andrew Lopez, Tim MacMahon, Dave McMenamin and Ohm Youngmisuk) think teams belong heading into this season. Title odds and win totals for 2023-24 by Caesars Sportsbook.

Jump to a team:
ATL | BOS | BKN | CHA | CHI | CLE
DAL | DEN | DET | GS | HOU | IND
LAC | LAL | MEM | MIA | MIL | MIN
NO | NY | OKC | ORL | PHI | PHX
POR | SAC | SA | TOR | UTAH | WAS

1. Denver Nuggets

When we last saw them ... Nikola Jokic finally put his dancing shoes aside and returned from his summer of celebrating in Serbia. Along with fellow star Jamal Murray, the champs are back, healthy and ready to defend their title. Michael Malone's starting five is still probably the best and most cohesive in the league.

Malone wants to see more leadership from Jokic and is challenging Murray to take his postseason tear (26.1 points, 7.1 assists, 5.7 rebounds, 39.6% shooting from 3) and continue it this season to become a first-time All-Star and All-NBA performer. Denver is excited about having Murray and Michael Porter Jr. entering this season fully healthy after easing their way back last year.

The Nuggets' second unit will also have a new look. After losing key contributors like Bruce Brown and Jeff Green, veterans Christian Braun and Reggie Jackson are poised for bigger roles. Peyton Watson could be an exciting contributor if he earns Malone's trust. The Nuggets also like what they saw from Justin Holiday and mature rookies like Julian Strawther, Jalen Pickett and Hunter Tyson in camp. -- Ohm Youngmisuk

Win-loss projections

• ESPN Forecast: 53-29

• Caesars: 51.5 wins | Title odds: +420

Nuggets in NBArank

• Nikola Jokic (2)

• Jamal Murray (17)

• Aaron Gordon (51)

• Michael Porter Jr. (68)

Number to watch: Plus-0.1 playoff net rating with Nikola Jokic on the bench.

Perhaps the single biggest reason the Nuggets dominated the postseason was their ability to survive with the two-time MVP on the bench. In the regular season, Denver was outscored by 10.4 points per 100 possessions when Jokic rested, according to NBA Advanced Stats. With more starters on the court and timely contributions from now-departed reserves Bruce Brown Jr. and Jeff Green, the Nuggets played even against playoff opponents without Jokic. -- Kevin Pelton

Major decision on the horizon: The defending champs are backed against the wall if their young and inexperienced bench stumbles. Denver does not have a first-round pick to trade (it does have three seconds), has 15 players on guaranteed contracts and is $4.7 million below the hard cap.

Because the Nuggets are over the first apron, they are not allowed to sign a player who was waived and had a salary greater than $12.4 million. -- Bobby Marks

Best bet: Over 51.5 wins (-125).

The Nuggets had the best record (53-29) in the Western Conference last season then dominated the postseason, posting a 16-4 record on their way to a championship. The team was significantly better than its 53 wins indicated, and with a relatively young team of veterans at or near their primes and Nikola Jokic still playing at the top of the league, the Nuggets should be better this season. -- André Snellings

2. Milwaukee Bucks

When we last saw them ... After entering last postseason with the best record in the NBA, the Bucks lost in the first round to the Miami Heat in five games, an upset that shook the organization.

Milwaukee fired coach Mike Budenholzer and replaced him with first-time head coach Adrian Griffin and then traded for seven-time All-NBA guard Damian Lillard. It's the first time in either Lillard or two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo's career they have played with another superstar.

Although the Bucks traded guard Jrue Holiday to acquire Lillard, the move makes them one of the favorites to win the NBA championship. -- Jamal Collier

Win-loss projections

• ESPN Forecast: 54-28

• Caesars: 54.5 wins | Title odds: +400

Bucks in NBArank

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (1)

• Damian Lillard (14)

• Khris Middleton (46)

• Brook Lopez (69)

• Bobby Portis (81)

Number to watch: 0.95 points per chance with Antetokounmpo as pick-and-roll screener.

Despite Giannis' obvious gifts as a screener, Milwaukee's pick-and-roll game wasn't particularly effective with him in that spot last season. Per Second Spectrum tracking, the 0.95 points per chance the Bucks averaged when the pick-and-roll led directly to the shot ranked 84th out of 103 players who set at least 500 screens last season. That figures to improve dramatically with Lillard on the other end of those screens as the ball handler. -- Pelton

Major decision on the horizon: With the blockbuster addition of Lillard, the Bucks have a championship roster but little roster flexibility. Milwaukee does not have first-round picks to trade, is not allowed to swap firsts in future seasons and have two second-rounders: 2024 (via Portland) and its own in 2027. The Bucks' top-heavy roster features nine players who earn between $1.1 to $2.6 million.

The Bucks could be a landing spot for players bought out of their contracts during the regular season, but because they are over the second apron, Milwaukee is not allowed to sign a player who is waived and had a salary greater than $12.4 million with his prior team. -- Marks

Best bet: Antetokounmpo over 11.5 rebounds per game (-140).

Antetokounmpo has averaged more than 11.5 RPG in four of his past five seasons, including the past two, despite playing one of the highest intensity offensive styles in the league against opposing "wall" defenses.

This season, with Lillard lightening his offensive responsibilities and changing the way opponents can defend him, Giannis should have more energy for the defensive end of the floor and rebounding.

He seems poised for his best defensive and rebounding season since winning the Defensive Player of the Year award in 2020 with averages of 13.6 RPG. -- Snellings

3. Boston Celtics

When we last saw them ... The Celtics nearly pulled off the first 3-0 comeback in NBA history in the Eastern Conference finals last season. Instead, they fell flat on their face in Game 7 against the Miami Heat, leaving them once again heartbreakingly close to raising an 18th banner.

As a result, Boston made significant changes this summer -- most notably, swapping out Marcus Smart, the longtime leader, for Kristaps Porzingis (along with a pair of first-round picks) in an offseason three-team deal with the Memphis Grizzlies and Washington Wizards.

How Porzingis fits in Boston alongside Al Horford will be one of the most important storylines to start the season. Whether it works or not could wind up defining this era of Celtics basketball. -- Tim Bontemps

Win-loss projections

• ESPN Forecast: 55-27

• Caesars: 53.5 wins | Title odds: +380

Celtics in NBArank

• Jayson Tatum (6)

• Jaylen Brown (19)

• Jrue Holiday (26)

• Kristaps Porzingis (62)

Number to watch: plus-4.6 clutch net rating.

The Celtics boasted the league's best overall net rating, but weren't as strong in the clutch (score within five points, last five minutes and OT), ranking just eighth in the league per NBA Advanced Stats. Those problems were exacerbated in the playoffs, when Boston was outscored by 8.5 points in the clutch. The Celtics added Porzingis in part to have what coach Joe Mazzulla describes as a "curveball" in these situations. -- Pelton

Major decision on the horizon: There will be questions about the Celtics' depth. Why wouldn't there be when you consider that the frontcourt reserves consist of Oshae Brissett and Luke Kornet.

The good news is in the past two seasons, president of basketball operations Brad Stevens has been aggressively improving the roster, including adding Holiday and Porzingis this summer.

The Celtics can trade up to two firsts, have nine additional seconds to use in a deal and have a $6.2 million trade exception and only 10 players on guaranteed contracts. -- Marks

Best bet: Brown under 26.0 points per game (-140).

Brown had the best scoring season of his career in 2022-23, averaging 26.6 PPG as the second option on a Celtics squad where he and Tatum (30.1 PPG) were the only two players to average 15 or more points. This offseason, the Celtics traded for two more volume scorers in Porzingis (23.2 PPG last season) and Holiday (19.3 PPG last season).

On what should be a much more balanced scoring lineup still led by Tatum, it is hard to imagine Brown getting enough shots to average 26 or more PPG this season. -- Snellings

4. Phoenix Suns

When we last saw them ... The Suns won as many games (two) against the Nuggets as the rest of Denver's playoff opponents combined, but after losing Games 5 and 6 of their second-round series by a combined 41 points, it was clear Phoenix had some work to do to catch up to the eventual champs.

New team governor Mat Ishbia didn't waste time, continuing to retool the organization in the same bombshell fashion that yielded the Kevin Durant trade. Phoenix parted ways with Monty Williams a season after he was named Coach of the Year and replaced him with Frank Vogel. The Suns traded Chris Paul for Bradley Beal and dealt 2018 No. 1 pick Deandre Ayton to Portland, acquiring Jusuf Nurkic and some role players to try to boost a bench unit that was woeful last season.

Devin Booker is now the only remaining member of the Suns' 2021 Finals team. Despite all that roster turnover, a new coach and a 35-year-old Durant playing for his third team in the past five years, nobody on the outside will have the patience to allow Phoenix to figure things out. There is pressure to win from the start. -- Dave McMenamin

Win-loss projections

• ESPN Forecast: 51-31

• Caesars: 50.5 wins | Title odds: +600

Suns in NBArank

• Kevin Durant (7)

• Devin Booker (11)

• Bradley Beal (37)

Number to watch: 92% combined usage rate for Bradley Beal, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant.

Adding Beal and getting a full season with Durant alongside Booker will clearly require some sacrifice from Phoenix's new big three. Only one trio that played more than 1,000 minutes together had combined usage rates higher than 90% of the team's plays: Anthony Davis, LeBron James and Russell Westbrook (91%). So it's almost certain their usage rates will go down compared to those from last season. -- Pelton

Major decision on the horizon: Trading Chris Paul and Cameron Payne left Phoenix with no established point guard. That leaves new coach Frank Vogel with Bradley Beal and Devin Booker as the primary ball handlers. Neither Beal nor Booker have ever averaged seven assists or more at any point in their careers.

If Phoenix does look to find a permanent solution at point guard, it has the $8.7 million salary of Grayson Allen, three trade exceptions ($6.5, $4.9 and $1.8 million) and four second-round picks to offer in trades. -- Marks

Best bet: Bradley Beal under 21.0 points per game (+110).

Deandre Ayton saw his scoring average and field goal attempts per game drop from 18.7 PPG and 13.8 FGA to only 12.5 PPG and 9.9 FGA in games Durant played in the regular season. Beal is a professional scorer, and the Suns will integrate him better into the offense with Ayton now gone, but alongside Devin Booker and Durant (both efficient, high-volume scorers), it is difficult to see Beal getting enough shots to average 21 PPG. -- Snellings

5. Los Angeles Lakers

When we last saw them ... At the conclusion of the Lakers' training camp ahead of their preseason opener, Anthony Davis couldn't help but be encouraged by what he saw.

"We obviously look good on paper," Davis said of L.A.'s offseason moves involving retaining the core that made it to the Western Conference finals and adding complementary pieces. "And we got a chance to put us on the floor for a couple of days and it's kind of a reflection of what the paper looks like."

Darvin Ham's second season as coach will coincide with LeBron James' 21st and Ham's biggest challenge will be getting the most out of the four-time MVP during the regular season while trying to keep James fresh for a postseason run. The hope is that the talented young trio of Austin Reaves, D'Angelo Russell and Rui Hachimura -- who all got new contracts during the summer -- can shoulder the load with Davis so James doesn't have to do too much.

Beyond James' and Davis' sustainability, the biggest question for this team is whether their playoff run last spring was truly a "proof of concept," as vice president of basketball operations and general manager, Rob Pelinka, described it, or a bit of a mirage, taking out an injured Memphis team and tired Golden State squad before being swept by Denver.

For Davis, whom James dubbed "the face" of the franchise, only a title will cut it.

"That's it, honestly," Davis said. "We're playing for a championship. That's our goal." -- McMenamin

Win-loss projections

• ESPN Forecast: 46-36

• Caesars: 47.5 wins | Title odds: +1100

Lakers in NBArank

• LeBron James (9)

• Anthony Davis (10)

• Austin Reaves (66)

Number to watch: No. 4 in defensive rating after the All-Star break.

As much as the Russell Westbrook trade helped the Lakers clarify offensive roles, they won with defense down the stretch. Although they benefited from poor opponent 3-point shooting (33.5%, also fourth-lowest), that success carried over into the playoffs with Anthony Davis as the league's most impactful postseason defender. The Lakers repeating or improving on their run to the conference finals will start on defense. -- Pelton

Major decision on the horizon: Don't expect a shakeup to the Lakers roster even if they get off to a sluggish start like last season. Out of the 14 players under contract, 10 cannot be traded until at least Dec. 15. Anthony Davis and Jarred Vanderbilt signed extensions and are ineligible to be traded this season.

One of the players who will become trade-eligible is D'Angelo Russell, who signed a two-year $37 million contract with a player option for next season. (Russell waived his one-year Bird restriction and is trade eligible without his permission.)

The Lakers are allowed to trade a 2029 or 2030 first-round pick and four seconds and are a luxury tax team for the fourth straight season -- this time $1.2 million over the threshold. -- Marks

Best bet: Pacific Division Winner (+340).

The Lakers made major roster moves at the trade deadline last season to turn around what had been a losing campaign. They went 18-8 down the stretch of the regular season to make the play-in game, then went on a run in the postseason to the Western Conference Finals.

They retained their new nucleus this offseason and added several key free agents, giving them championship aspirations going into this season. With the third-longest odds in the division, there is value in taking the Lakers to win the Pacific this season. -- Snellings

6. Golden State Warriors

When we last saw them ... The Warriors' playoff elimination in the Western Conference semifinals by the Los Angeles Lakers was the last chapter of their incredibly rocky 2022-23 season. Five months later, they say that season is behind them.

The Warriors look incredibly different now. Bob Myers, the constructor of their dynasty, is gone and Mike Dunleavy was named his successor as general manager. Jordan Poole -- a player at the center of Golden State's drama last season -- was packaged in a deal to Washington for Chris Paul. There also is a slew of new role players. All of the moves -- at least to the roster -- should help the Warriors improve.

The official word of the Warriors' training camp has been "connectivity," something they were lacking. As they move throughout the season, they will test this connectivity both on the court and in the locker room. -- Kendra Andrews

Win-loss projections

• ESPN Forecast: 47-35

• Caesars: 48.5 wins | Title odds: +850

Warriors in NBArank

• Stephen Curry (5)

• Klay Thompson (41)

• Andrew Wiggins (54)

• Draymond Green (55)

• Chris Paul (76)

• Kevon Looney (88)

Number to watch: 110.4 offensive rating without Curry.

The Warriors are hoping adding Paul can solve a decade-long riddle: how to keep the offense afloat with Curry on the bench. Even when they had another MVP in Kevin Durant, Golden State struggled to score without Curry -- a testament to his unique offensive ability. But the Warriors have never had a second lead ball handler like Paul, who figures to play most of the minutes Curry doesn't despite currently starting alongside him. -- Pelton

Major decision on the horizon: Extension talks with Thompson will linger. After missing the better part of two-and-a-half seasons, Thompson played 69 games in 2022-23, posting his third-best scoring average. While he shot over 40% from deep for the ninth time in 10 seasons, he shot under 60% on layups and dunks for the first time since 2014-15. His 47% shooting on 2-pointers was his worst in a season under coach Steve Kerr.

Thompson is eligible to sign a four-year, $223 million extension, but a contract that size is reckless considering that Thompson would be set to earn $61 million in 2027-28, when he turns 37. A max extension would also put Golden State closer to the $190 million second apron next season if Chris Paul is retained.

The Warriors have no players (including Curry) under contract past 2026-27 and will be over the salary cap next offseason with or without Thompson on the roster. -- Marks

Best best: Over 48.5 wins (-105).

The Warriors won 53 games and the NBA title during the 2021-22 season, then managed only 44 wins last season under unusual circumstances. They missed a combined 81 games from Curry and Wiggins, dealt with internal strife in the aftermath of a physical altercation between Green and Poole and were historically poor on the road for a playoff team with an 11-30 record.

This season, a reasonable "regression to the mean" plus the addition of Paul to stabilize the second unit should see them return to their more typical win patterns. -- Snellings

7. New York Knicks

When we last saw them ... The Knicks arguably had their most successful season in this century in 2022-23. They not only reached the second round of the playoffs for the second time in 20-plus years, but also did so while signing RJ Barrett to an extension and most importantly, landing Jalen Brunson on a four-year deal that instantly became one of the NBA's best contracts.

After signing Brunson's former Villanova teammates as a free agent (Donte DiVincenzo) and to an extension (Josh Hart) this summer, the question for the Knicks will be how much of that success from last season is sustainable -- and can they possibly build on it this year? Or, will things regress the other way yet again in Gotham? -- Bontemps

Win-loss projections

• ESPN Forecast: 46-36

• Caesars: 45.5 wins | Title odds: +5000

Knicks in NBArank

• Jalen Brunson (32)

• Julius Randle (45)

• RJ Barrett (71)

• Josh Hart (91)

• Immanuel Quickley (92)

• Mitchell Robinson (100)

Number to watch: plus-11.9 net rating with Josh Hart on court.

After dealing for Hart at the trade deadline, the Knicks crushed opponents with their second unit, led by Hart and Sixth Man runner-up Immanuel Quickley. New York doubled down on small, quick reserve units by signing Donte DiVincenzo in free agency to join his former Villanova teammate Hart. However, the Knicks must also decide on Quickley, who will be a restricted free agent next summer if he doesn't agree to an extension by Monday. -- Pelton

Major decision on the horizon: The Knicks are well-positioned financially, with no player earning more than $28 million and 11 first-round picks at their disposal (eight that can be traded) and eight second-round picks in the next seven years.

If the next disgruntled All-Star becomes available, New York has the assets and contracts to make a trade and not ruin future flexibility.

Evan Fournier played the fewest games in his career last year, is likely out of the rotation as the season starts and is owed $18.9 million this season. He has a $19 million team option in 2023-24. -- Marks

Best bet: Jalen Brunson over 24.5 points per game (-120).

Brunson had a breakout campaign in his first season in Gotham, particularly after he settled into his new team and firmly took the reins around the New Year. Once the calendar flipped to 2023, Brunson's scoring game exploded and he averaged 27.9 PPG on 51.7 FG% in his last 34 games of the season despite often playing through injury. He should maintain that level for his second full season with the Knicks. -- Snellings

8. Philadelphia 76ers

When we last saw them ... With six minutes to go in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference semifinals against Boston, Philadelphia might have been the favorite to win the East -- if not the title. Then, in typical Philadelphia fashion, everything fell apart.

Since then, also in typical Philadelphia fashion, chaos ensued. Doc Rivers was fired and replaced by Nick Nurse. Georges Niang left in free agency. And most notably, James Harden has requested a trade from the 76ers, though it appears one won't be coming anytime soon.

This team, led by reigning NBA MVP Joel Embiid, is good enough to contend for a title. But only time will tell if this group will stick together long enough to see whether it can get there. -- Bontemps

Win-loss projections

• ESPN Forecast: 47-35

• Caesars: 47.5 wins | Title odds: +2800

76ers in NBArank

• Joel Embiid (3)

• Tyrese Maxey (42)

• James Harden (43)

• Tobias Harris (83)

Number to watch: 49% of picks defended in drop coverage by Joel Embiid.

Just six players defended more screens than Embiid in what Second Spectrum tracks as "soft" defense -- NBA teams typically call this drop coverage. That's an interesting contrast to how new coach Nick Nurse deployed his smaller big men in Toronto. The Raptors were in the NBA's bottom 10 in using soft coverage, although Jakob Poeltl was marked as soft on 55% of the picks he defended in Toronto after the trade deadline. -- Pelton

Major decision on the horizon: No team this year has as many questions than the 76ers. Former MVP Harden requested a trade in late June and is a free agent next offseason. Maxey could have been extended in July but Philadelphia bypassed a new contract, instead focusing on cap flexibility in 2024.

The 76ers could have up to $65 million in room but with only two players on the roster, Embiid and the free agent hold of Maxey. -- Marks

Best bet: Maxey over 21.5 points per game (-120).

There is a lot of uncertainty with the 76ers, much of it surrounding Harden's trade request and what that means for him, and even Embiid's future with the team. One player who the team seems confident in, based upon their reported adamance that he would not be traded this offseason, is Maxey.

The 22-year old has improved significantly in each of his first three NBA seasons, up to 20.7 PPG last season, and he got better as the season went along. From his last game in February to his first game in April, Maxey averaged 23.1 PPG on 55.3 field goal percentage in 19 games. He seems poised to make another leap this season, particularly if the drama surrounding Harden leads to more minutes and opportunities. -- Snellings

9. Cleveland Cavaliers

When we last saw them ... After securing the franchise's first 50-win season without LeBron James since 1992-93 and entering the playoffs at the No. 4 seed, the Cavs were quickly dismissed by the Knicks in five games in the first round. New York outscored Cleveland by 40 points over its final three wins to advance. Donovan Mitchell, after averaging career highs in points per game (28.3) and field goal percentage (48.4) in his first regular season with the Cavaliers, took a step back when it mattered most, averaging just 23.2 points on 43.3% (including 28.9% from 3) against the Knicks.

The Cavs fortified their roster by adding proven contributors in Max Strus and Georges Niang -- moves that were doubled in value by prying them away from Eastern Conference contenders.

Cleveland's president of basketball operations, Koby Altman, was arrested in September for driving under the influence. He continues to steward the front office as the team allows the legal process to play out. While momentum has been building in a positive direction the last couple years, Cleveland suddenly finds itself in a pretty consequential season.

Mitchell has two years left on his contract, with the second being a player option, and is extension eligible. Just how fast the Cavs' young core of Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen can continue to develop around him will be key in convincing Mitchell that there's no better place for him than The Land. -- McMenamin

Win-loss projections

• ESPN Forecast: 50-32

• Caesars: 50.5 wins | Title odds: +3000

Cavaliers in NBArank

• Donovan Mitchell (15)

• Darius Garland (36)

• Evan Mobley (40)

• Jarrett Allen (50)

Number to watch: 24th in 3-point attempts.

The Cavaliers weren't a particularly inaccurate 3-point shooting team last season, ranking 12th in the league at 37%, but were near the bottom of the league in attempts. Cleveland hopes that changes this season with the additions of Georges Niang and Max Strus. It would help if Evan Mobley adds a 3-point dimension to his game. His 1.3 attempts per game were unchanged from his rookie season and his accuracy dropped from 25% to 21.6%. -- Pelton

Major decision on the horizon: The Cavaliers return the starting five that won 50 games and improved their team with the additions of Max Strus, Georges Niang, Ty Jerome and Damian Jones. But roster questions remain.

The first is the status of Ricky Rubio. The veteran guard announced in early August that he was stepping away from basketball to focus on his mental health. Rubio has $6.1 million and $6.4 ($4.3 million is guaranteed) on his contract the next two seasons.

The second is whether general manager Koby Altman has authority to enter the luxury tax. Cleveland is $752,000 below the threshold and has an open roster spot. The last time Cleveland paid the luxury tax was 2017-18, the last year LeBron James was on the roster. -- Marks

Best bet: Over 50.5 wins (-115).

The Cavaliers have made major strides as a team in each of the past two seasons, from the deep lottery in 2020-21 to a winning record and play-in appearance the next season then to a 51-win campaign and the first round of the playoffs in 2022-23. They've put together a core of four All-Star caliber talents, all age 27 or younger, that should continue to improve going into their second full season together. -- Snellings

10. Miami Heat

When we last saw them ... Miami's run to the NBA Finals as a No. 8 fell short as it lost to the Denver Nuggets in five games. In an attempt to strengthen the squad heading into the new season, the Heat made a run at a trade for Damian Lillard but that was unsuccessful as Portland dealt him to Milwaukee.

The Heat also lost key players from last season, with Gabe Vincent heading to the Lakers and Max Strus going to Cleveland.

Without replacing either player with Lillard, the Heat will have to rely on the return of Tyler Herro -- who played in only one game in the playoffs because of a broken wrist -- and hope they can get others to step up like Caleb Martin, second-year forward Nikola Jovic, free-agent signee Josh Richardson and rookie Jaime Jaquez. Of course, it's hard to doubt Jimmy Butler in any scenario after last year's run. -- Andrew Lopez

Win-loss projections

• ESPN Forecast: 46-36

• Caesars: 44.5 wins | Title odds: +2200

Heat in NBArank

• Jimmy Butler (12)

• Bam Adebayo (16)

• Tyler Herro (79)

Number to watch: 34% 3-point shooting (27th).

The Heat's accuracy beyond the arc has fluctuated wildly over the past two seasons, mirroring their success as a team. In 2021-22, when they finished atop the East standings, they led the league in 3-point percentage (38%). And come the 2023 playoffs, Miami was back to 38% en route to the NBA Finals. My SCHOENE projection system forecasts the Heat settling in between at 21st in 3-point percentage this season. -- Pelton

Major decision on the horizon: The Heat bypassed Bradley Beal, Damian Lillard and Jrue Holiday, electing to keep the core of their Eastern Conference championship roster intact. Miami still has the $29.7 million expiring contract of Kyle Lowry, two first-round picks, pick swaps in multiple years and three valuable trade exceptions ($9.5, $7.2 and $4.7 million).

In his two seasons with Miami, Lowry started 107 out of 118 games, but his 55 games played last season were his second fewest in the past decade. -- Marks

Best bet: Over 44.5 wins (-115).

The Heat won a prorated 49 and 45.5 in the shortened seasons of 2019-20 and 2020-21, then followed that up with 53 wins in 2021-22. Last season they only won 44 games but awoke in the postseason to make the NBA Finals, defeating the top two seeds in the Eastern Conference in the Bucks and the Celtics on their way.

The Heat's down regular season can be attributed in part to aging starters and injury to young guard Tyler Herro. With Herro and Bam Adebayo healthy to carry a larger load, and star Jimmy Butler in "Emo Jimmy" mode after the summer disappointments of losing the Finals and missing out on the much rumored trade of Damian Lillard, expect the Heat to bounce back to their typical win levels this season. -- Snellings

11. Memphis Grizzlies

When we last saw them ... A turbulent season, in which the Grizzlies played without Ja Morant during his eight-game suspension stemming from a February incident in which he posted a video that showed him handling a gun in a nightclub, ended in embarrassing fashion. Memphis earned the West's second seed but got knocked out in the first round, finishing with a 40-point loss to the Lakers in Game 6. Two weeks later in May, Morant again flashed a handgun on an Instagram Live video, which ultimately resulted in a 25-game suspension to start this season.

The Grizzlies pounced on the chance to trade for Marcus Smart, giving up outstanding backup point guard Tyus Jones and two first-round picks to get the former Defensive Player of the Year. Memphis' hope is that Smart provides the smart, tough leadership the Grizzlies have been missing while also filling departed free agent Dillon Brooks' role as an elite on-ball defender.

Memphis needs Morant on the floor at his best to have hopes of contending, but the continued development of the Grizzlies' other young stars could also be a major factor in elevating their ceiling. Desmond Bane (21.5 points per game) and reigning Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr. (18.6) are both coming off career-best scoring seasons and will have increased offensive opportunities during Morant's suspension. -- Tim MacMahon

Win-loss projections

• ESPN Forecast: 44-38

• Caesars: 43.5 wins | Title odds: +3000

Grizzlies in NBArank

• Jaren Jackson Jr. (31)

• Ja Morant (35)

• Marcus Smart (59)

• Desmond Bane (61)

Number to watch: No. 3 in defensive rating.

Continued defensive success for the Grizzlies, a top-five team at that end each of the past two seasons, will be key to staying afloat during Ja Morant's 25-game suspension. Morant has hardly been the lynchpin of the Memphis defense, and in 2021-22 Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart, the Grizzlies now have an ace defender to step in at point guard before sliding to shooting guard when Morant returns. -- Pelton

Major decision on the horizon: The Grizzlies were aggressive in addressing their lack of backcourt depth due to Ja Morant's suspension, trading a 2024 first-round pick (via Golden State) and Tyus Jones to acquire former Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart.

Now with four first-round picks at their disposal, does Memphis enter the market for a starting small forward, or is Desmond Bane a permanent solution when Morant returns? Per Basketball Reference, Bane played 48% of possessions at small forward his rookie season but only 10% last season. -- Marks

Best bet: Desmond Bane over 22.5 points per game (-115).

Bane will be the primary scoring option for the Grizzlies to start the season while Ja Morant serves his suspension. Last season, after a slow start in the first few games, Bane reeled off a nine-game span during which he averaged 28.0 PPG on 52.4 FG% before sustaining a toe injury and missing the next 17 games. He returned and played the rest of the season, but was slowed until he underwent surgery on the toe in May.

He should be healthy and get more touches than he ever has before at the start of this season. Bane has improved his scoring average significantly in each of his three NBA seasons, and that pattern should continue this season. -- Snellings

12. LA Clippers

When we last saw them ... Russell Westbrook was doing all he could to keep them alive in the first round of the playoffs against Phoenix with an injured Kawhi Leonard and Paul George watching. This is not how team owner Steve Ballmer envisioned things.

Entering Year 5 of the Kawhi-PG era, the Clippers are in a massive prove-it year. Leonard and George, both seeking extensions, have to stay healthy amid the new player participation policy but have to show they can go deep into the playoffs. Westbrook is rejuvenated after having found a new home and with a full season to work with the two stars.

And while they hope Terance Mann, Bones Hyland and Kenyon Martin Jr. can add some talent and energy to a veteran group, the Clippers continue to pursue James Harden in hopes of adding another star scorer and playmaker to keep them in contention. Power forward remains a question mark after Marcus Morris Sr. fell out of the rotation late last season. -- Youngmisuk

Win-loss projections

• ESPN Forecast: 45-37

• Caesars: 46.5 wins | Title odds: +1800

Clippers in NBArank

• Paul George (18)

• Kawhi Leonard (24)

• Russell Westbrook (94)

Number to watch: 33-19 record with Leonard.

The math is simple for the Clippers: The more games Leonard plays, the better. They won at a 52-win pace with their star, who spent the first half of the season working his way back into health after missing all of 2021-22. If Leonard plays at least 60 games this season, it would help the Clippers stay afloat in the crowded Western Conference standings and avoid the threat of the play-in. -- Pelton

Major decision on the horizon: Both Leonard and George have $48 million player options for the 2024-25 season and can be extended an additional four years for $223 million. If the Clippers don't sign Leonard and George to extensions, would they look for trade suitors or play out the season?

In the scenario that both decline their option and sign with a different team, the Clippers enter their new building with cap space but a roster led by Norman Powell, Mann, Ivica Zubac, Amir Coffey and Hyland. The Clippers will also be monitoring what happens with Harden in Philadelphia.

Could the Clippers go all-in closer to the trade deadline for a player like Harden? The team has expiring contracts (Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington, Marcus Morris), young players (Mann and Hyland) and draft capital (2028 and 2030 first-round picks) to get a deal done. -- Marks

Best bet: Leonard over 6.0 rebounds per game (-160).

Leonard has averaged at least 6.5 RPG in each of his past four seasons while playing for both the Raptors and the Clippers. Leonard plays a lot of power forward in the Clippers' smaller lineups, keeping him near the rim to consistently grab a significant number of rebounds. -- Snellings

13. Sacramento Kings

When we last saw them ... The beam was bright for the Kings last season. They broke their 16-year playoff drought. And despite losing in the first round, they pushed the defending champion Warriors to seven games. Mike Brown was named NBA Coach of the Year and Monte McNair earned league Executive of the Year honors.

The Kings didn't make any flashy moves over the summer but don't blame them. The ones they did make are enough to keep them in the top portion of the highly competitive Western Conference. They signed Domantas Sabonis to a $217 million five-year extension, while also extending Harrison Barnes on a three-year, $54 million deal. They also added JaVale McGee, Chris Duarte and EuroLeague MVP Sasha Vezenkov.

They feel confident in the young group they have, and with another year under their belt, they're ready to see how they can follow up their breakout season. But that is the question -- how can they follow it up? What will make for a successful season in Sacramento? -- Andrews

Win-loss projections

• ESPN Forecast: 47-35

• Caesars: 44.5 wins | Title odds: +4000

Kings in NBArank

• Domantas Sabonis (22)

• De'Aaron Fox (23)

• Harrison Barnes (96)

Number to watch: 55 games lost due to injury or non-COVID illness.

The 2022-23 Kings were the healthiest team in recent NBA memory. Their 55 games missed were the fewest in an 82-game schedule since 2015-16. All-Star center Domantas Sabonis did play through an avulsion fracture of the ulnar collateral ligament of his right (non-shooting) thumb, missing just one game after the injury, but remained productive. Averaging 17.9 PPG on 62% shooting prior to the avulsion fracture, Sabonis averaged 19.9 PPG on 61% shooting thereafter. -- Pelton

Major decision on the horizon: The Kings were one of the great success stories in 2022-23, advancing to the postseason for the first time since 2006.

Sacramento, which returns 10 players including their starting five, will be in a holding pattern if they get out to a slow start; including All-Star De'Aaron Fox, the Kings have seven players ineligible to be traded until Dec. 15. -- Marks

Best bet: Pacific Division Winners (+575).

The Kings were the surprise team in the Pacific Division last season, going from worst in the division in 2021-22 to winning the division by three games in 2022-23. The Kings are young and return their entire nucleus from last season, yet they enter this season with the longest odds of any team in the division to win the Pacific.

The Kings may not have the championship ceiling of some of the other teams in the West, but they have a strong team that should only get better, and they don't have nearly the injury concerns that any of the other four Pacific teams have based on recent history.

At 6-1 odds as the defending division champions, the Kings are a value pick to repeat as Pacific Division champions. -- Snellings

14. Oklahoma City Thunder

When we last saw them ... The Thunder made a 16-win improvement to finish 40-42, missing the playoffs by losing the second play-in game in Minnesota. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander soared into the superstar stratosphere in his fifth season, averaging 31.4 points per game and earning a first-team All-NBA selection in the first year of his five-year maximum contract extension.

General manager Sam Presti took a patient approach this offseason, opting not to pursue any high-profile free agents or make any splashy trades despite the Thunder being positioned to do so. Chet Holmgren, the No. 2 overall pick whose rookie season was delayed a year due to a foot injury, should make an immediate impact. The Thunder also traded up to get guard Cason Wallace with the No. 10 overall pick and persuaded 29-year-old former EuroLeague MVP Vasilije Micic to sign a three-year deal and finally play in the NBA.

For the first time since Russell Westbrook's departure, the Thunder enter a season with a lot of buzz. Oklahoma City features arguably the league's best young core -- Gilgeous-Alexander, Holmgren, Rookie of the Year runner-up Jalen Williams and Josh Giddey -- and seems poised for a bright future beginning with a playoff berth this season. -- MacMahon

Win-loss projections

• ESPN Forecast: 45-37

• Caesars: 43.5 wins | Title odds: +7000

Thunder in NBArank

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (8)

• Josh Giddey (53)

• Chet Holmgren (73)

• Jalen Williams (95)

Number to watch: 23.9 drives per game by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

During his breakthrough season, which earned All-NBA first team honors, Gilgeous-Alexander lapped the field in terms of drives. According to Second Spectrum data on NBA Advanced Stats, Ja Morant was the only other player to average over 20 per game. Because Oklahoma City's starting lineup included four guards, Gilgeous-Alexander enjoyed excellent floor spacing. The Thunder could double down on that by starting Chet Holmgren at center, giving them five starters who can shoot 3s. -- Pelton

Major decision on the horizon: There is a walk-before-you-can-run approach in Oklahoma City. Despite reaching the play-in tournament last season, president of basketball operations Sam Presti is preaching patience.

"I'm not trying to dismiss everyone's excitement, but we're not a .500 team. Like I said earlier, we have to finish our breakfast before we start acting like we're on the cusp of something. ... I wouldn't want to 'cash in' to become average or above average," Presti said before training camp.

But what happens if the Thunder are a top-six team when the trade deadline approaches? Would Presti be willing to move draft equity if a star becomes available? OKC has 15 first-round picks and 21 second-rounders available. -- Marks

Best bet: Chet Holmgren wins Rookie of the Year (+275).

Holmgren was the number two overall pick in the 2022 NBA draft, and many (including ESPN Analytics' NBA draft projections) had him as the top prospect in the class. He missed last season with a foot injury, but the added year before his rookie season helped Holm gren develop more physical strength to help him quickly acclimate to the NBA game.

He has many similar strengths as a scorer, rebounder and defender to fellow Rookie of the Year contender Victor Wembanyama, but Holmgren is a year further along and could potentially be an impact player on a playoff contender in the Thunder.

If so, that narrative would help strengthen his Rookie of the Year credentials and place him among the favorites to win the award. -- Snellings

15. Minnesota Timberwolves

When we last saw them ... The Timberwolves made one of the biggest trades of last offseason by acquiring Rudy Gobert, but never really got to see their experiment of playing two big men come to fruition. Karl-Anthony Towns played in only 29 games and struggled during the playoffs as Minnesota lost to the Denver Nuggets in five games in the first round.

The Wolves hope their plan of complimenting their two frontcourt stars with All-Star Anthony Edwards, the breakout performer for Team USA at the FIBA World Cup, comes together this season. -- Collier

Win-loss projections

• ESPN Forecast: 43-39

• Caesars: 46.5 wins | Title odds: +4000

Timberwolves in NBArank

• Anthony Edwards (13)

• Karl-Anthony Towns (20)

• Rudy Gobert (64)

• Mike Conley (93)

Number to watch: Plus-0.6 net rating with Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns.

It's no secret that for the Timberwolves to live up to my lofty stats-based wins projection for them, they'll need to figure out how to pair their two All-NBA centers. Because of Towns' calf injury, he played just 529 minutes with Gobert, during which the Minnesota offense was middling. The Timberwolves are expecting a second full training camp to figure out spacing and a full season of Mike Conley Jr. will improve those results. -- Pelton

Major decision on the horizon: There is a financial wrecking ball coming to Minnesota. Not including a new contract for Jalen McDaniels in 2024, Minnesota has $160 million in salary, $130 million of which committed to Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards.

Starting point guard Mike Conley Jr. will be a free agent and the Timberwolves could have only the veteran minimum exception to replace him. (Minnesota swapped the expiring contract of D'Angelo Russell for Conley Jr. at the trade deadline in February.) -- Marks

Best bet: Anthony Edwards over 26.0 points per game (-115).

Edwards has made major strides as a scorer and player every season of his career, and last season started making the leap to superstardom. After opening the season as a co-lead with Karl-Anthony Towns, Edwards stepped up when Towns got injured and developed into an elite scorer. Over the 41 games from Dec. 18 through March 15, after which he sprained his ankle.

Edwards averaged 26.8 points per game on 46.4 FG%. In the playoffs, playing with Towns, Edwards averaged 35.0 PPG in the last four games against the eventual champion Nuggets. Steve Kerr touted Edwards as the unquestioned alpha of Team USA at the FIBA World Championship, and Edwards should be that for the Timberwolves this season as well. -- Snellings

16. New Orleans Pelicans

When we last saw them ... The Pelicans' injury-filled and disappointing 2022-23 campaign ended when the team was bounced from the play-in tournament by the Oklahoma City Thunder. There was no Zion Williamson on the court, and CJ McCollum was playing with an injured thumb and shoulder.

But for now, the Pelicans are healthy again. The team is leaning into Brandon Ingram playing more of the point guard role although he, Williamson, McCollum or Herb Jones could initiate the offense in the starting group.

Former Charlotte Hornets coach James Borrego joined Willie Green's staff and has had a large impact so far on the offense. Also, the team has made changes to their medical staff to help ensure players -- and not just Williamson -- stay on the court. -- Lopez

Win-loss projections

• ESPN Forecast: 42-40

• Caesars: 43.5 wins | Title odds: +5000

Pelicans in NBArank

• Brandon Ingram (27)

• CJ McCollum (44)

• Zion Williamson (57)

• Jonas Valanciunas (99)

Number to watch: 29 games played for Zion Williamson.

When Williamson has been on the court, the Pelicans have been a contender for home-court advantage in the playoffs. Their 17-12 record in his 29 games last season projects to a 48-win pace, which would have tied the Sacramento Kings for third in the West. Alas, Williamson has only surpassed that total once in his four years as a pro, playing 61 of 72 games in 2020-21. -- Pelton

Major decision on the horizon: New Orleans has already been bitten by the injury bug before the season started. Trey Murphy III had left knee surgery Sept. 7 and is expected to return to basketball activities in 10 to 12 weeks. Murphy averaged 14.5 points on 40.6% 3-point shooting and 90.5% shooting from the free throw line.

The Pelicans' front court is left with Zion Williamson, Larry Nance Jr., E.J. Liddell, Jonas Valanciunas and Cody Zeller. The Pelicans have the draft assets (six tradable first-round picks) to make a trade but are a projected luxury tax team for the first time in franchise history. -- Marks

Best bet: Win Southwest Division (+210).

The Pelicans have a team built to win, with a strong mix of stars in their primes, contributing veterans and young, energetic players. They held the number two spot in the Western Conference last season just before Zion Williamson went down with a season-ending injury, and as time went on they learned to win without him and won nine of their last 12 games.

With the Grizzlies facing Ja Morant's suspension and the Mavericks only 5-11 in the 16 games Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have played together, the Pelicans have a window to win the Southwest division this season. -- Snellings

17. Dallas Mavericks

When we last saw them ... Dallas was the league's most disappointing team last season, finishing 38-44 despite making a midseason blockbuster trade to land Kyrie Irving. The Mavs blatantly tanked their last two games to position themselves to keep the top-10 protected pick they owe the Knicks from the failed Kristaps Porzingis trade.

The Mavs emphasized defense and unselfishness in their attempts to upgrade the supporting cast around Luka Doncic and Irving. Grant Williams is a lock in the starting lineup. Rookie first-rounders Dereck Lively II and Olivier-Maxence Prosper will have opportunities to earn roles. And Derrick Jones Jr. and Dante Exum give the bench some talented depth.

Everything in Dallas revolves around Doncic, and Mavs management does not want to test the superstar's patience after taking such a huge step back last season. Doncic is a four-time first-team All-NBA selection entering his sixth season and has only been out of the first round of the postseason once. Success in Dallas this season should be defined as providing Doncic reasons for optimism about the short- and long-term future. -- MacMahon

Win-loss projections

• ESPN Forecast: 43-39

• Caesars: 43.5 wins | Title odds: +2500

Mavericks in NBArank

• Luka Doncic (4)

• Kyrie Irving (34)

• Grant Williams (97)

Number to watch: Plus-4.2 rating with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.

To return to the postseason, the Mavericks have to get better results when their star duo is on the court. Dallas' offense was predictably effective, posting a 119.2 offensive rating according to NBA Advanced Stats, but the Mavericks gave up 115.0 points per 100 possessions -- which wasn't the product of hot opponent 3-point shooting. Dallas hopes the additions of Grant Williams and rookie Dereck Lively II can help balance Doncic-Irving lineups with defense. -- Pelton

Major decision on the horizon: Despite limited draft assets, general manager Nico Harrison has turned over the Mavericks roster, adding nine new players since February, including Irving.

The Mavs are still restricted in draft picks they can move (they have a 2027 first and two seconds) but do have the $18 million contract of Tim Hardaway Jr., who is under contract through 2024-25 but with a $16.2 million salary that declines. (In three of the past four years, Hardaway Jr. shot greater than 38.5% from deep.)

After waiving and stretching the $11.7 million owed to JaVale McGee, Dallas is $3.6 million below the luxury tax. -- Marks

Best bet: Over 44.5 wins (-105).

The Mavericks are coming off a down season where injuries, particularly the 16 games missed by Luka Doncic, as well as changing team demographics with major personnel turnover, contributed to their 38-44 record. In the three seasons before, pro-rated for 82 games a season, the Mavericks averaged 49 wins per season with Doncic as the centerpiece.

Doncic had to learn to play with Kyle Irving, who came over in a late-season trade, but having had the offseason and a full training camp to get acclimated, the two All-NBA performers should return the Mavericks to their previous winning ways. -- Snellings

18. Atlanta Hawks

When we last saw them ... After making a coaching switch from Nate McMillan to Quin Snyder, the Hawks mostly continued along the same path. In fact, from Jan. 14 to April 4, Atlanta was either one game below or above .500. They finished the season 41-41 and beat the eventual Eastern Conference champion Heat in the play-in tournament before losing in six to the Boston Celtics in the first round.

The Hawks mostly stayed pat with the roster, finally dealing out John Collins. They added Patty Mills and Wesley Matthews but will be asking a lot of forward Saddiq Bey to consistently play up at the power forward spot. One of Snyder's top tasks of the 2023-24 season will be trying to improve the defense. -- Bontemps

Win-loss projections

• ESPN Forecast: 41-41

• Caesars: 42.5 wins | Title odds: +8000

Hawks in NBArank

• Trae Young (29)

• Dejounte Murray (60)

• Clint Capela (84)

Number to watch: 133 combined assists between Dejounte Murray and Trae Young.

For the Hawks' All-Star backcourt to work better in Year 2, it will require the two guards to set each other up better. Although Murray's 51 assists were the most by any player to Young according to Second Spectrum data on NBA Advanced Stats, Young's 82 assists to Murray were the fewest he had to any other Atlanta starter. -- Pelton

Major decision on the horizon: A full season under Snyder should bring more clarity on the viability of the Trae Young-Dejounte Murray backcourt. In 352 regular-season minutes the duo shared the court under Snyder, Atlanta had a minus-7.6 net efficiency, including a 111.7 offensive rating. For comparison, only five teams had a worse offensive efficiency in 2022-23.

Murray signed a four-year $120 million extension in the offseason and Young enters Year 2 of the five-year rookie max extension he signed in 2021. Murray has a signing restriction and cannot be traded until Jan. 9.

Also, keep an eye also on the center position in Atlanta. The Hawks ducked the luxury tax this season but will not be as fortunate if former lottery pick Onyeka Okongwu signs a long-term contract. Starting center Capela has two years and $43 million remaining on his contract. -- Marks

Best bet: Clint Capela under 11.0 rebounds per game (-115).

Capela's rebounds and minutes have gone down in each of his three seasons with the Hawks, from 14.3 RPG in 30.1 minutes per game in 2020-21 to 11.0 RPG in 26.6 MPG last season. The 29-year-old Capela's statistical declines have correlated almost perfectly with the rise in minutes and production of 22-year-old Onyeka Okongwu, from 3.3 RPG in 12.0 MPG in 2020-21 up to 7.2 RPG in 23.1 MPG last season.

These trends seem likely to continue as Okongwu moves toward his NBA prime, likely pushing Capela under 11.0 RPG this season. -- Snellings

19. Indiana Pacers

When we last saw them ... Although the Pacers missed the postseason in 2022-23 after finishing 35-47, they entered the offseason optimistic -- and they might be ahead of schedule. Trading for point guard Tyrese Haliburton has been a home-run acquisition, as the star guard made his first All-Star team, averaged 20 points and 10 rebounds, nearly led the league in assists and signed a rookie max extension this summer.

Combine his emergence with the free agent signing of Bruce Brown, fresh off winning a championship with the Nuggets, and the Pacers could find themselves back in the playoff picture sooner than later. -- Collier

Win-loss projections

• ESPN Forecast: 38-44

• Caesars: 39.5 wins | Title odds: +20000

Pacers in NBArank

• Tyrese Haliburton (21)

• Myles Turner (65)

• Buddy Hield (87)

Number to watch: 841 minutes with Tyrese Haliburton and Bennedict Mathurin.

Because Mathurin spent most of his rookie season coming off the bench, he played more with Indiana's backup point guard T.J. McConnell (1,052 minutes per NBA Advanced Stats) than with All-Star Haliburton. Mathurin has started in the preseason, albeit with Haliburton sitting out, suggesting we'll get a longer look at what the Pacers are hoping will be their starting backcourt of years to come. -- Pelton

Major decision on the horizon: Indiana enters the season with the risk that Buddy Hield could leave in free agency next offseason. The Pacers are not forced to trade Hield and could play out the season, even waiting until free agency to explore sign-and-trade options. Last season, Hield shot more than 40% from 3 for the third time in seven years. He also ranked No. 2 among all players in made 3s.

If Hield gets traded, he could sign an extension with his new team, but rules would limit him for the next six months to adding only two more years at a maximum 5% increase. The Pacers have $7.5 million in cap space and could create more if less salary is taken back in a Hield trade. -- Marks

Best bet: Tyrese Haliburton wins the regular-season assists title (+160).

Haliburton has averaged 10.2 assists per game in his season and a half with the Pacers and is still improving rapidly as a player at only 23 years old. He would have finished second in the NBA with 10.4 APG last season, but he didn't play enough games to qualify.

With questions surrounding last season's assists leader, James Harden, and his future in Philadelphia, Haliburton has a great chance to ascend to the assists title in his fourth NBA campaign. -- Snellings

20. Brooklyn Nets

When we last saw them ... After all of the chaos of the past few seasons in Brooklyn, there's serenity surrounding the franchise. They will open the year without any of the same expectations they had when Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and James Harden were in town.

Instead, this year is going to be about seeing whether Mikal Bridges can officially make the leap to being an All-Star after he made impressive strides as the focal point of Brooklyn's offense. And if the Nets can make it back to the postseason, that'll be seen as a success. -- Bontemps

Win-loss projections

• ESPN Forecast: 39-43

• Caesars: 36.5 wins | Title odds: +15000

Nets in NBArank

• Mikal Bridges (33)

• Cameron Johnson (82)

Number to watch: Minus-24.3 clutch net rating post-All-Star break

Although Brooklyn remained competitive after trading Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, the lack of star talent reared its head late in games. Only the lottery-bound Detroit Pistons and Portland Trail Blazers had worse net ratings in the clutch (score within five points, last five minutes and OT) post-All-Star. The good news for the Nets is that sample represented just 35 minutes, and their defense in particular should regress to the mean. -- Pelton

Major decision on the horizon: Will a healthy Ben Simmons decide the future of Spencer Dinwiddie in Brooklyn? Dinwiddie is in the last year of his contract and eligible thru June 30 to sign a four-year, $128 million extension. In 26 games with Brooklyn this season, Dinwiddie averaged 9.1 assists per game, trailing only Hawks guard Trae Young in that span.

Dinwiddie, Jrue Holiday, Tyrese Maxey, Immanuel Quickley and Tyus Jones are projected as the top point guard targets next offseason. The Nets could have $25 million in room to replace Dinwiddie but at the expense of losing Nic Claxton and Royce O'Neale. -- Marks

Best bet: Mikal Bridges wins NBA's Most Improved Player award (+800).

Bridges made his name on the Suns as one of the best young 3-and-D wings in the NBA, but after being traded to the Nets he spent the last third of last season showing he could also be a primary offensive option.

Bridges averaged 26.1 points per game in 27 games for the Nets, and if he maintains or increases that production it would represent at least a full 6.0 PPG increase over his previous career high and give him the kind of case that voters usually like for Most Improved Player. -- Snellings

21. Orlando Magic

When we last saw them ... After a 5-20 start to the season, the Magic finished above .500 (29-28) over the season's final 57 games to give the young squad something to build on heading into the new season.

Prior to Orlando's first preseason game, coach Jamahl Mosley was asked about how that can help this year's team and he said because of the roster continuity, he noticed players came into camp this year with more confidence than before.

The hope is that the team can continue to grow. Third-year forward Franz Wagner helped Germany to the FIBA World Cup Championship during the summer and the 2022 No. 1 pick Paolo Banchero played a big role for Team USA during the competition, as well. If those two continue to take off, the Magic could push for more in 2023-24. -- Lopez

Win-loss projections

• ESPN Forecast: 38-44

• Caesars: 37.5 wins | Title odds: +30000

Magic in NBArank

• Paolo Banchero (30)

• Franz Wagner (52)

Number to watch: 46.5% effective field-goal percentage for Paolo Banchero.

Among players who averaged at least 20 PPG, Banchero's effective field-goal percentage (which counts 3s as 1.5 field goals to reflect their value) was lowest. That's typical for a rookie, and Banchero maintained his efficiency by tying Zion Williamson for third most free throw attempts per game (7.4) among rookies in the 2000s behind Joel Embiid and Blake Griffin. Still, just how quickly Banchero can develop may depend on his ability to shoot more accurately. -- Pelton

Major decision on the horizon: Lottery pick Anthony Black joins a crowded Magic backcourt that already includes Markelle Fultz, Jalen Suggs, Cole Anthony, Gary Harris and Caleb Houstan. Black is at his best as a facilitator but the challenge comes with Fultz, Suggs and Anthony struggling from the perimeter.

Anthony was the only one out of the three that shot above 36% from deep last season, with Suggs and Fultz below 33%. Keep an eye on Jonathan Isaac: The forward has played a total of 45 games over the past four seasons and has $34.8 million left on his contract -- only $7.6 million is guaranteed. -- Marks

Best bet: Paolo Banchero over 22.0 points per game (-120).

Banchero justified his position as the top pick in the 2022 NBA draft by taking home the 2022-23 Rookie of the Year award after averaging 20.0 PPG. Banchero was the most physically prepared of the rookie class for the rigors of the NBA game, but his scoring was relatively inefficient with a 42.7% field goal percentage and 29.8% 3-point shooting percentage.

With a year under his belt, the 20-year-old is likely to return with a better feel for how to score at this level. The Magic still don't have a lot of offensive talent around him, so Banchero will retain the ultimate green light in his sophomore season. -- Snellings

22. Chicago Bulls

When we last saw them ... The Bulls are running it back ... again. Despite losing in the play-in tournament last season, Chicago kept its core intact by re-signing Nikola Vucevic and keeping DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine. It also added a few complementary pieces around the group -- Jevon Carter and Torrey Craig -- but it enters the season returning its top eight players in minutes played.

The Bulls have won only one playoff game in two seasons with this group and have already ruled guard Lonzo Ball out for the entire season. Yet, management still believes the ceiling for this group is higher than their record last season has shown and is giving them another chance to prove it. -- Collier

Win-loss projections

• ESPN Forecast: 37-45

• Caesars: 37.5 wins | Title odds: +15000

Bulls in NBArank

• Zach LaVine (38)

• DeMar DeRozan (39)

• Nikola Vucevic (75)

Number to watch: plus-6.1 net rating with Alex Caruso on the court.

Although Caruso averaged just 5.6 PPG last season, his defensive contributions made him perhaps Chicago's most important player. Despite the offensive reputations of DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic, all of whom have been All-Stars, the Bulls were far better defensively (ranking fifth in the league) than offensively (24th) -- with Caruso's versatile defense a key factor. -- Pelton

Major decision on the horizon: Is DeMar DeRozan the next All-Star to ask out? Entering the last year of his contract, DeRozan is eligible until June 30 to sign a four-year, $179 million extension. DeRozan has averaged at least 20 points per game in each of the past 10 seasons and has ranked top five in clutch time points in the last four seasons, including second in 2022-23.

The Bulls committed $215 million to Zach LaVine in 2022 and $60 million to Nikola Vucevic this offseason. Chicago is projected to have significant cap space if DeRozan is not brought back and the Bulls petition the NBA to remove the $21.4 million salary for Lonzo Ball, who hasn't played since January 2022 due to knee injuries and already has been ruled out for 2023-24. -- Marks

Best bet: Over 37.5 wins (+100).

The Bulls are entering their third full season built around the core of DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic. They averaged 43 wins in the first two seasons, with at least 40 wins both seasons. Their expected value for 2023-24 is that level or higher, particularly with LaVine entering this season healthy after dealing with knee issues and surgery in 2022. -- Snellings

23. Utah Jazz

When we last saw them ... The surprisingly competitive first season of the Jazz's full-blown rebuild ended with Utah losing nine of its last 11 games to secure a lottery pick. Utah came out of coach Will Hardy's first year with confidence that All-Star forward Lauri Markkanen and All-Rookie center Walker Kessler could be long-term foundation pieces.

Utah's offseason acquisitions were headlined by former Hawks forward John Collins, a starter who arrived in a salary-dump deal, and three first-round picks (Taylor Hendricks, Keyonte George and Brice Sensabaugh). George, who starred in the NBA summer leagues, is considered the most ready to contribute among the Jazz's rookies. There is hope that he could emerge as Utah's future lead guard.

After spending his entire career in Atlanta, Collins has said it's "refreshing to have a group of guys that truly emphasize playing team basketball and want to do so." However, it will likely be a process to figure out how Collins best fits between the sweet-shooting Markkanen and traditional big man Kessler. -- MacMahon

Win-loss projections

• ESPN Forecast: 37-45

• Caesars: 35.5 wins | Title odds: +30000

Jazz in NBArank

• Lauri Markkanen (28)

• Walker Kessler (70)

• Jordan Clarkson (77)

• John Collins (90)

• Collin Sexton (98)

Number to watch: Fifth in 3-point attempts (37.8 per game).

Volume 3-point shooting helped the Jazz compensate for playing one of the league's biggest front courts last season. However, two of their four leaders in attempts per game, Malik Beasley and Mike Conley Jr., were traded at the deadline. The Jazz's key newcomer, John Collins, shot a career-low 29% from 3-point range last season, although his attempts (3.4 per game) did not drop off. -- Pelton

Major decision on the horizon: The Jazz traded starting point guard Mike Conley Jr. at the trade deadline and then relied on a combination of Talen Horton-Tucker and Kris Dunn as fill-ins.

Both players are unrestricted free agents next season, but Utah has the draft assets to search for a permanent replacement. The Jazz have twelve first-round picks and Kelly Olynyk's expiring $12.1 million contract. -- Marks

Best bet: Over 35.5 wins (-125).

The Jazz were expected to take a major step back as a team last season after trading away several of their best players, including Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert. Instead, they assembled a team of young talent in new coach Will Hardy's system and spent much of the season in serious contention to make the postseason.

New addition Lauri Markkanen became an All-Star and Walker Kessler developed into an All-Rookie First Team selection. This offseason they added another starting caliber forward in John Collins and several promising first year players to their young nucleus, and should be even better than last season's 37-win team. -- Snellings

24. Toronto Raptors

When we last saw them ... After losing in the play-in tournament last season, Toronto dismissed Nick Nurse after five impressive seasons and replaced him with longtime NBA assistant Darko Rajakovic. Then, the team's on-court leader, Fred VanVleet, left to join the Houston Rockets in free agency, becoming the latest player to depart from the Raptors with nothing coming back in the last few years.

Now, Toronto enters this season with not only a new coach and a new point guard -- freshly minted FIBA World Cup MVP Dennis Schroder -- but also both Pascal Siakam and O.G. Anunoby one year away from free agency. This leaves Toronto in yet another precarious position when it comes to keeping top-end talent on the roster -- something that will hang over the team yet again this season. And, after last year ended with a play-in loss to the Bulls, making it further in the postseason will be a challenge. -- Bontemps

Win-loss projections

• ESPN Forecast: 36-46

• Caesars: 37.5 wins | Title odds: +1250

Raptors in NBArank

• Pascal Siakam (25)

• Scottie Barnes (63)

• OG Anunoby (67)

Number to watch: 26th in assist rate (57%).

Last year's Raptors depended heavily on self-created scoring and finding mismatches. Now, Toronto has lost Fred VanVleet, who led the team in assists. Replacement Dennis Schroder hasn't averaged as many assists per 36 minutes as VanVleet had last season (7.0) since 2017-18. Whether the Raptors can set each other up will help determine if their offense bounces back. -- Pelton

Major decision on the horizon: The clock is ticking for Toronto's roster. The Raptors lost free agent Fred VanVleet this offseason to Houston and could be facing the same fate with O.G. Anunoby, Pascal Siakam and Gary Trent Jr. next offseason.

Anunoby is extension-eligible, but a four-year $117 million contract is less than what he projects to earn as a free agent. Siakam is eligible to sign a four-year $190 million extension but could reach supermax criteria if named to an All-NBA team this season. Trent Jr. is also extension-eligible. -- Marks

Best bet: Scottie Barnes over 16.0 points per game (-130).

After a Rookie of the Year campaign with the Raptors in 2022, Barnes plateaued statistically in the first half of his sophomore season. He picked it up as the season went along, attacking the rim more aggressively and averaging 17.1 PPG over 29 games from Jan. 12 until March 16 before dealing with wrist injury issues that slowed him down the stretch.

Barnes is entering "magical" season three and should build upon his strong finish to make a leap this season. -- Snellings

25. San Antonio Spurs

When we last saw them ... the Spurs finished 22-60 for the worst season since 1996-97, when Gregg Popovich took over midseason. San Antonio won the lottery that spring and drafted Tim Duncan with the No. 1 overall pick. This time around, the Spurs once again picked up the No. 1 pick and took top prospect Victor Wembanyama.

After a rocky debut in summer league, Wembanyama has been as advertised -- if not better -- for San Antonio. How he and the rest of the Spurs' young players develop will determine how quickly San Antonio can return to the top of the Western Conference standings, a place they were familiar with for so long. -- Lopez

Win-loss projections

• ESPN Forecast: 27-55

• Caesars: 29.5 wins | Title odds: +20000

Spurs in NBArank

• Victor Wembanyama (47)

Number to watch: Last in opponent FG% (51%).

Last year's Spurs were last in the league defending both 2-point shots (57%) and 3-point attempts (39%), becoming the fourth team since the NBA expanded to 30 teams to finish 30th in both categories. Adding No. 1 pick Victor Wembanyama will undoubtedly improve the San Antonio defense, but just how much will be a telling indicator of the immediate impact Wembanyama can have at that end with his 8-foot wingspan. -- Pelton

Major decision on the horizon: Spurs general manager Brian Wright has been aggressively retooling the roster during the regular season. Last year, Wright accumulated one first-round pick and eight seconds in four different trades.

That theme should continue with veterans Cedi Osman, Doug McDermott, Devonte' Graham and Khem Birch on the roster. Graham is the only player of the five under contract for 2024-25. -- Marks

Best bet: Victor Wembanyama wins Rookie of the Year (-145).

Wembanyama is the most anticipated NBA rookie since LeBron James in 2003, and perhaps since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1970. At 7-5, his combination of length, shooting touch, ballhandling ability and passing ability on offense is unique and his potential as a defensive anchor is unmatched.

The Spurs are a team deep in rebuilding mode and Wembanyama is the focal point. If he produces and is among the rookie leaders in points, rebounds and blocks as expected, he has the inside track to the Rookie of the Year award. -- Snellings

26. Houston Rockets

When we last saw them ... The Rockets had the West's worst record for the third straight season, matching the Spurs at 22-60. Houston bid farewell to head coach Stephen Silas after his three-year contract expired.

Owner Tilman Fertitta trumpeted the hiring of head coach Ime Udoka as the start of "Phase 2" of the Rockets' rebuild, emphasizing that he expects Houston to be competitive again this season. The Rockets spent heavily in free agency for a group of veterans headlined by Fred VanVleet (three years, $128.5 million) and Dillon Brooks (four years, $86 million). Houston also selected Amen Thompson with the franchise's third straight top-four pick.

The infusion of veteran experience raises the Rockets' floor beyond basement level, and the hope is that the free agent additions will help guide Houston's crop of talented youth. The development of those high-upside young players -- particularly Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun and Thompson -- remains the most important issue for the franchise. -- MacMahon

Win-loss projections

• ESPN Forecast: 29-53

• Caesars: 32.5 wins | Title odds: +30000

Rockets in NBArank

• Fred VanVleet (56)

• Jalen Green (80)

Number to watch: 29th in defensive rating.

After finishing dead last defensively in 2021-22, the Rockets showed limited improvement a year ago, a sign of their general lack of seriousness during a rebuild. With the arrival of Ime Udoka and veterans Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks, Houston is now committed to trying to win. Even more so than wins, how much the Rockets climb in terms of defensive rating will be telling on how quickly the culture can change. -- Pelton

Major decision on the horizon: The Rockets were aggressive in the offseason, reshaping the team with Ime Udoka and nine new players, including veterans Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks.

With half of the roster unable to be traded until mid-December and the other half consisting of former lottery picks, including Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr. and Amen Thompson, expect Houston to preach patience in the early part of the season.

The Rockets do have valuable trade assets in Jae'Sean Tate's $6.5 million contract, two unprotected first-round picks from Brooklyn and five seconds. -- Marks

Best bet: Jalen Green over 23.0 points per game (-120).

When Green was drafted number two overall in 2021, he was touted as the best pure scorer in that draft. He improved from 17.3 PPG as a rookie to 22.1 PPG as a sophomore, and finished the season by averaging 23.2 PPG in his last 36 games.

Green can score at all three levels, from knocking down an average of 2.5 3-pointers to his high-flying finishes at the rim where he drew an average of 6.1 field goal attempts last season. The 21-year old should continue to improve in his third NBA season. -- Snellings

27. Detroit Pistons

When we last saw them ... Detroit's aspirations were derailed early on last season when a stress fracture in former No. 1 overall pick Cade Cunningham's leg ended his season after just 12 games. Without him, the young Pistons struggled to the worst record in the NBA at 17-65.

As a result, the team moved coach Dwane Casey to a front office role and inked Monty Williams to the richest coaching contract in league history. However, Detroit has vowed to be patient with their young core and hope Cunningham's return will propel them to more success. -- Collier

Win-loss projections

• ESPN Forecast: 26-56

• Caesars: 28.5 wins | Title odds: +50000

Pistons in NBArank

• Cade Cunningham (74)

Number to watch: 283 minutes with Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey both on the court.

The shin injury that ended Cunningham's sophomore campaign after 12 games was disappointing for many reasons, not least the limited sample we got of the 2021 No. 1 pick playing with last year's No. 5 selection. Ivey, forced into more of an on-ball role, predictably shot a low percentage (46% on 2s, 34% on 3s) with 3.2 turnovers per game. With Cunningham back to sop up that responsibility, we should see Ivey improve dramatically. -- Pelton

Major decision on the horizon: The Pistons lost Cade Cunningham twelve games into last season but did not waive the white flag, electing to keep veterans Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks. With Cunningham now healthy, are the Pistons reluctant trading either player even if the return is draft equity?

Detroit does not not control its first-round pick in the next four drafts, owing New York a protected first. Bogdanovic played a career low 59 games but still managed to average a career high 21.6 points and shoot 48.8% from the field.

He has two years left on his contract, including a $19 million non-guaranteed salary in 2024-25. Burks averaged 12.8 points and shot 41.4% from three, the second highest in his career. He is on an expiring $10.5 million contract. -- Marks

Best bet: Cade Cunningham over 21.5 PPG (-145).

Cunningham enters his third NBA season after missing most of his sophomore campaign injured. Cunningham was averaging 21.4 points per game through his first 11 games, up from 17.4 PPG as a rookie, before suffering a shin injury that limited him to only 12 games.

The first overall pick in the 2021 NBA draft returns as the primary engine on a young Pistons squad that has assembled some exciting talent to surround their franchise player. Cunningham projects to statistically improve across the board in what could be a breakout campaign. -- Snellings

28. Portland Trail Blazers

When we last saw them ... The Trailblazers posted their worst record in 16 years last year, going just 33-49, and were hit hard with injuries. But through it all, Damian Lillard pledged he wanted to stay with the team that drafted him, eventually wanting to retire with them. But then July came around. Lillard requested a trade and two months later, he was on his way to Milwaukee.

In return for Lillard, Portland got Jrue Holiday, Deandre Ayton, Toumani Camara, Milwaukee's 2029 unprotected first-round draft pick and unprotected Milwaukee swap rights in 2028 and 2030. They then flipped Holiday to the Boston Celtics for Robert Williams III, Malcolm Brogdon and two future first-round picks.

These moves usher the Blazers into a rebuilding phase centered around their youth, which includes third overall pick Scoot Henderson, Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe. With this new reality, where will Jerami Grant fit in? The 29-year-old forward signed a five-year, $160 million extension this summer. -- Andrews

Win-loss projections

• ESPN Forecast: 24-58

• Caesars: 29.5 wins | Title odds: +50000

Trail Blazers in NBArank

• Deandre Ayton (49)

• Jerami Grant (58)

• Scoot Henderson (78)

• Anfernee Simons (85)

• Robert Williams III (89)

Number to watch: 4th-youngest projected weighted age (25.7).

After trading Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic last month, the Blazers have just one player in their 30s on the roster: guard Malcolm Brogdon, who could also eventually be on the move after coming from the Boston Celtics in return for Jrue Holiday. Starting forward Jerami Grant will turn 30 in March. Besides them, Matisse Thybulle (26) is the third-oldest player in a youthful Portland rotation. -- Pelton

Major decision on the horizon: The Trail Blazers have retooled their roster, trading All-Stars Damian Lillard and Jrue Holiday. Now with the youngest roster in the NBA, the focus this season is player development and surveying the trade market for veterans Malcolm Brogdon and Jeremi Grant.

Brogdon can be traded immediately, but his $22.5 million contract cannot be aggregated with additional contracts from the Trail Blazers until Dec. 2. The 30-year-old Brogdon is the oldest player on the roster and has two years left on his contract. Grant signed a five-year $160 million contract and cannot be traded until Jan. 15. -- Marks

Best bet: Scoot Henderson wins Rookie of the Year (+275).

With the long-awaited trade of Damian Lillard complete, Henderson is the new face of the Portland Trail Blazers. The 6-foot-3 guard with the 6-foot-9 wingspan, who joined the G League after his junior year in high school, has been compared to Russell Westbrook.

Henderson will be the primary ball handler and decision-maker for the Trail Blazers, is a natural scorer that can finish in the paint and, when his shot is working, knock down the 3-pointer. He projects to be among rookie leaders in points, assists and potentially steals and has the type of electric game that leads "SportsCenter" highlights and sticks in the memories of fans -- and Rookie of the Year voters. -- Snellings

29. Charlotte Hornets

When we last saw them ... Last season was a lost one for the Hornets, with LaMelo Ball playing just 36 games and Miles Bridges sitting out the entire season after pleading no contest to a felony domestic charge and was sentenced to three years of probation.

But it was a busy offseason in Charlotte. The Hornets were sold, with Rick Schnall and Gabe Plotkin buying the team from Michael Jordan. The team selected Alabama forward Brandon Miller with the third overall pick in June's NBA draft and waived forward Kai Jones.

With lots of other top-end talent in this year's rookie class -- between Victor Wenbanyama, Scoot Henderson, Amen and Ausar Thompson and Chet Holmgren -- Miller's progress will be closely monitored. So, too, will the work of Schnall and Plotkin as the new owners, and what it means for how the Hornets will operate moving forward. -- Bontemps

Win-loss projections

• ESPN Forecast: 30-52

• Caesars: 30.5 wins | Title odds: +50000

Hornets in NBArank

• LaMelo Ball (48)

Number to watch: 30th in offensive rating.

The Hornets' drop to last in the league in offensive efficiency was shocking after they finished eighth the year before. Relative to league average, just seven teams since 1997-98 have fallen farther. Charlotte actually improved defensively with Steve Clifford's return as head coach but needs the offense to join the party with a healthy LaMelo Ball in order to return to postseason contention. -- Pelton

Major decision on the horizon: The Hornets cannot trade a first until 2027 (they owe San Antonio a top-14 protected first in 2024 or 2025) but have one of the league's big trade chips: the $31.5 million expiring contract of Gordon Hayward. Signed to a four-year $120 million contract in 2020, Hayward has played 44, 49 and 50 games the last three seasons.

Forward Miles Bridges signed a one-year $7.9 million qualifying offer and is eligible to be traded starting on Jan. 15. Bridges would need to approve a trade and the acquiring team would not inherit his Bird rights. -- Marks

Best bet: Over 30.5 wins (-115).

The Hornets looked like a team on the rise in 2021-22, winning 43 games on a team led by two young stars in LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges. The next season, they would only get a combined 36 games (of a possible 164) out of Ball and Bridges due to a combination of injuries and off-court issues, and the team limped to a lost season of only 27 wins.

This season, the Hornets get both Ball and Bridges back, in addition to the second pick in the 2023 NBA draft in Brandon Miller. They are a good candidate to bounce-back to their previous levels of success, well beyond 31.5 wins. -- Snellings

30. Washington Wizards

When we last saw them ... It's a new era in D.C. as Michael Winger is in charge of the new Wizards regime. Bradley Beal is in Phoenix and the Wizards are starting over, collecting as many assets as possible and adding some new pieces in hopes of not only building a more up-tempo offense but finding some building blocks.

There should be plenty of 3's and offense from Jordan Poole, who gets a fresh start and joins Kyle Kuzma as D.C.'s young guns. Tyus Jones has his chance to run an offense as a full-time starter and the Wizards will assess what they have in past draft picks like Deni Avdija, Corey Kispert and Johnny Davis.

New general manager Will Dawkins drafted Bilal Coulibaly and added shooters who can stretch the floor like Landry Shamet, who is recovering from a broken toe. While Washington is a long way from contending, the Wizards are at least invested in a new direction. -- Youngmisuk

Win-loss projections

• ESPN Forecast: 24-58

• Caesars: 24.5 wins | Title odds: +50000

Wizards in NBArank

• Jordan Poole (72)

• Kyle Kuzma (86)

Number to watch: 28% usage rate for Kyle Kuzma.

The Wizards' offseason makeover has particularly affected their shot creation. Of the top five players in usage rate for Washington in 2022-23, only Kuzma -- re-signed to a new four-year contract as an unrestricted free agent -- returns. Little-used rookie Johnny Davis was the other Wizards incumbent with a usage rate higher than league average (20%), meaning plenty of opportunities for Kuzma and newcomer Jordan Poole (29% usage). -- Pelton

Major decision on the horizon: The retooling Wizards made four offseason trades under new president of basketball operations Michael Winger. One of those deals was acquiring veteran point guard Tyus Jones, who is on an expiring $14 million contract but is not extension-eligible. He will be an unrestricted free agent next offseason and could be a valuable addition to a contending team.

In 22 starts with Memphis in 2022-23, Jones averaged 16.4 points, 8.1 assists and only 1.5 turnovers per game. -- Marks

Best bet: Jordan Poole over 25.0 points per game (-130).

Poole has shown explosive scoring upside when called upon to start for the Warriors, particularly when Stephen Curry has been out. For example, last season, Curry missed 11 games from Dec. 16 through Jan. 7, and Poole averaged 27.9 PPG. On a Wizards team where he has the green light, few scorers around him and no structure to fit into, Poole should be among the league leaders in scoring this season. -- Snellings

ORION KERKERING CAST a furtive glance around the clubhouse. His teammates -- this lot of Philadelphia Phillies who had been his teammates for a grand total of three weeks -- were consumed with the work ahead of dispatching the Braves in Game 4 to clinch the National League Division Series, or just otherwise engaged in pregame rituals, and they paid him no mind. He tugged open the plastic bag and double-checked its contents. Satisfied, he squirreled it away in his locker for safekeeping. His time, and the time for the contents of that bag, was coming.

The fact that these teammates were his teammates was silly. That this locker was his locker, illogical. That the contents of that bag, which he had commissioned barely 12 hours ago, were his to commission at all, downright asinine. Six months ago, he took the mound in Low-A ball in Clearwater, Florida. Low-A! And here he was, suiting up in Philadelphia. In the majors. In October. (Philadelphia! The majors! October!)

So roughly four hours later -- with the Atlanta Braves duly dispatched and the NLDS safely clinched -- when he nudged his clubhouse neighbor and fellow bullpen mate, Jeff Hoffman, smiled with an air of mischief and told him, "Hey, man, look at this," well, it made as much sense as anything else in this nonsensical year.

The way Hoffman tells it, Kerkering giggled almost like a grade-schooler at what he had done. Fittingly, perhaps, since he's only 22 and not that far removed from grade school. (He was in grade school, in fact -- just 9 years old -- when his now-teammate and Phillies closer, Craig Kimbrel, made his major league debut in 2010.)

Hoffman smiled back at Kerkering. "Wow," he told him. Atta boy, he almost said, which is also fitting. Because Orion Kerkering, a Phillie for 20 days, had made a T-shirt commemorating that sentiment exactly.

In maroon, against a powder blue backdrop on the front: "ATTA BOY HARPER"

On the back: "HE WASN'T SUPPOSED TO HEAR IT"

With help from a college friend and Philadelphia local who made the shirt on about a half day's notice, Kerkering had memorialized Orlando Arcia, the Brave who launched a thousand Bryce Harper stare-downs. Specifically, the Atlanta shortstop's dig and subsequent about-face at Harper's Game 2-ending baserunning blunder. And Hoffman loved it.

"When you win, you can do whatever you want," Hoffman says. "At least that's how we look at it here."

And the Phillies did win, with a hint of bedlam and utter lack of orthodoxy, as is their wont. So with the clubhouse draped in celebratory plastic and geysers of celebratory Budweiser arcing through the air, Kerkering finally put on his shirt. Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm double-fisted a pair of beer bottles and poured them all over it. Kerkering paid it forward, dousing Kyle Schwarber with the beer he's barely old enough to drink legally.

His path to this beer bath was a little frenzied and more than a little unexpected -- which on this particular team, with this particular group of players, somehow feels just right.

The Phillies simply do not do normal. They send the unlikeliest leadoff hitter in baseball to the plate; Schwarber is shaped like a fire hydrant and on many nights, either fires moon shots into the Philadelphia evening or whiffs entirely. Their lineup can boggle the mind; Nick Castellanos, their $100 million slugger, has mostly taken up residence in the 7-hole for over a month now. They can launch (and launch and launch) home runs all the way to the Delaware River, but can forget, for seeming eternities, how to make bat meet ball with runners in scoring position. And they can look like a very good team for 162 games, only to hulk out when the calendar flips to October and there's a nip in the air.

They are perfectly imperfect. A chaotic mess. A beautiful symphony.

Orion Kerkering -- and his chaotic, symphonic climb to the highest level of baseball -- fits right in.

PERHAPS IT SHOULD be no surprise, then, that by the seventh inning of Game 1 in the National League Championship Series, a healthy number of Phillies fans and armchair Toppers the Philadelphia region wide were agitating to replace their ace with a pitcher they hadn't heard of three weeks before.

Starter Zack Wheeler had, by and large, breezed through six innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks, helped steward a 5-2 Phillies lead, then handed the ball to the bullpen. And though Kerkering did not get the nod that night, the clamor was still a dizzying turn of events for a man who currently calls a hotel in Philadelphia's Navy Yard home.

He's living out of a suitcase he packed last month, with enough clothes -- some shirts, some pants; "I'm not a big stylish guy," he says -- for the final week of the Reading Fightin Phils' season, plus a sightseeing trip to Gatlinburg, Tennessee, with his girlfriend. They pushed back their plans when he got the call to head to Triple-A -- then that pushback got pushed back when, four nights and one game into his stint with the Lehigh Valley IronPigs, he got summoned to Philadelphia on a late-September Friday around noon. He had planned to get a haircut that afternoon; instead, he battled midday traffic from Allentown to Philadelphia, dropped his belongings at the hotel, then hightailed it to Citizens Bank Park in case he needed to pitch that night. (He didn't, but would two days later.)

Since that Friday when his fall turned topsy-turvy, Kerkering has made:

• His major league debut, on Sept. 24, a 1-2-3 eighth inning against the Mets.

• His postseason debut 10 days later, a 1-2-3 eighth inning against the Marlins.

• His NLDS debut three days after that, a 1-2-3 seventh inning against the Braves' historically potent offense.

• His NLCS debut a week after that. He allowed one hit, served three strikeouts and looked generally filthy in the ninth inning to close out Arizona in a 10-0 laugher.

Kerkering's swift ascension to these playoffs makes a meteor's pace seem glacial. To wit: Since 1992, according to Stats Perform, he's just the second player to pitch in Low-A, High-A, Double-A, Triple-A and the major league postseason.

And though he finally looked the part of a rookie by the heart of the NLCS -- he gave up three straight hits and the game-tying run in the Phillies' Game 3 loss; he delivered a bases-loaded walk before closing out the seventh inning in Game 4 -- Kerkering swears he has never been cowed by the moment or the enormity of what he has done since late September. Instead, shell shock took hold when he passed a Bryce Harper or a Kyle Schwarber or a Trea Turner. Or a Nick Castellanos or Aaron Nola or Zack Wheeler. He rattles off what feels like half the roster, recounting how he'd see them in the clubhouse, realize they were his teammates, then laugh to himself about it all. "A little-kid kind of moment," he says, a bit sheepishly, now that the bewilderment has faded and he's a seasoned veteran of 20-plus days.

Which is pretty much what his teammates make him out to be, on the mound at least -- a seasoned veteran -- a distinction they also say he comes by honestly.

"If I had his stuff, I'd be pretty mellow too," says pitcher Michael Lorenzen. "I'm telling you. It's that good."

A popular refrain, by all counts. J.T. Realmuto, Philadelphia's longtime catcher, heard it early this year, and often.

"To be honest, I've been hearing about him and his stuff since May," he says. "Every time I asked any minor league coach, 'Hey, what do we have coming?' He was the first one they always mentioned."

So is it enough, his devastating slider and the aura of inevitability that trails in that slider's wake? Can Kerkering be a secret weapon and a fittingly unorthodox puzzle piece for this unorthodox team in the throes of another October run?

"100%," Lorenzen says. "100%. He's going to throw a lot of important innings. Everyone's going to know who he is at the end of this. Everyone will."

IF EVERYONE DOES know who Kerkering is at the end of this, it's a tale that's especially apropos told here. Philadelphia falls hard for chaos to call its own.

One day before he turned Arcia's words into a fashion statement, he strode into Citizens Bank Park for Game 3 against the Braves wearing someone else's eloquence.

"If you don't get it, then get the f--- out of Philly," said Phillies backup catcher Garrett Stubbs, by way of postseason hype video. Stubbs' exuberance wound up printed on T-shirts. The T-shirts wound up on a table in the clubhouse, up for grabs for interested parties. Kerkering saw them, snagged one for himself -- if nothing else, he was still getting by on his two weeks' worth of clothes, and an extra tee could prove handy. Then, caught up in the team's emotional roller coaster of a start to the series against the Braves, he figured the Phillies' first NLDS game at home was a fine time to showcase it.

So what don't people get, exactly, about Philly? These people who need to get the f--- out?

"Just how passionate we are," Kerkering estimates. We, he says, this Venice, Florida-raised Phillie who has called Philadelphia (or at least a hotel room in Philadelphia) home for a month.

Philadelphia has fallen hard for Kerkering because of his wardrobe choices, his ridiculous slider and his rapid-fire rise to the top of the baseball food chain. And because of his father, Todd, who stumbled into his own bit of viral fame after he was caught on the TV broadcast overcome with emotion during Orion's regular-season debut.

When the cameras caught Todd choking up, he wasn't just watching his son take the mound in Philadelphia. He was watching him take the mound when he was 6, and 10, and 14. He was watching him at 7, getting ready for fall ball. Orion's coach at the time assembled his team and asked the players: "Who can play what position?" Orion's response was immediate and resolute: "I can play them all."

Todd is a former Marine and has long tried to pass down the lessons he learned from his service to his son. "Be the silent professional," he starts. "Be patient. Slow is fast."

They're lessons that Orion has not heeded, at least not in his baseball career. But the Marines also taught Todd to maintain a sense of humor, lightheartedness and joy. So he smiled, too, at his son's willingness to play to the Philly masses with his pointed fashion choices.

Among those Philly masses are a couple of his old Marine Corps friends. They texted him in recent days: "Everyone loves your kid."

"For right now," Todd wrote back.

Both Kerkerings, it seems, are quick studies in the art of playing in Philadelphia, and for these Phillies. And all their attendant chaos.