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Dolphins' Howard has domestic charge dismissed
DAVIE, Fla. -- Miami Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard had a domestic battery charge stemming from a December incident with his fiancée dismissed Thursday morning, per his lawyer Michael Grieco.
Howard was arrested by the Davie Police Department on a domestic battery charge Dec. 29, just hours after the Dolphins pulled off a season-ending upset victory over the New England Patriots.
The decision to drop the charges clears Howard of further legal consequences, but the NFL is investigating the matter and Howard could be subject to further discipline from the league based on its personal conduct policy.
Per the arrest report obtained by ESPN in December, Howard was accused of grabbing his fiancée's arms and pushing her against a mirrored glass wall in the hall of their bedroom, causing her to fall and land on his walking crutch.
An officer said he observed scratches and redness on her right wrist and forearm from Howard grabbing her and an abrasion and redness from the fall.
Howard, 26, was processed at the Davie Police Department, then transported to a hospital when he complained of knee pain from a recent surgery. He was then transferred to Broward County Jail. He paid $3,000 bond.
Police said the altercation stemmed from a recent purchase of a purse. Howard and his fiancée live together and share three children.
The Dolphins placed Howard on injured reserve with a knee injury in October, and he had recently undergone surgery.
Coach Brian Flores addressed the issue in his season-ending news conference on Dec. 30, saying the team takes the allegations against Howard seriously.
"We're still gathering information on that. We take situations like that very, very serious. We're gathering information. It's unfortunate," Flores said. "How does it impact us? It does impact us. Again, we take these things very seriously. We'll gather all information and do what we feel is best for the organization.
Flores said the front office would make a decision once it gets all the information it needs.
Howard made the Pro Bowl in 2018 after tying for the NFL lead in interceptions. He signed a five-year, $75.25 million extension in May.
AB apologizes to Steelers for being a distraction
Antonio Brown issued a public apology to the Pittsburgh Steelers, telling 93.7 The Fan on Thursday that he is sorry for being a distraction.
"I apologize to those guys for the distractions, the unwanted attention that I probably caused those guys," Brown told the radio station when asked if he had anything to say to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, coach Mike Tomlin and team owner Art Rooney II. "To the organization. Obviously you want to clear out any baggage or any disrespect or unintended attention that was brought on to the organization.
"These guys gave me an opportunity when I was 21 years old. I'm forever grateful to those guys, to have the opportunity to not only play with those guys but to be in so many amazing moments. We've been through so much. I'm forever grateful and indebted to this organization."
Brown's comments continue a series of apologies the wide receiver has made over the past week. On Friday, Brown apologized to the NFL as a whole in an interview with ESPN's Josina Anderson. He also apologized that day to the Hollywood (Florida) Police Department, which arrested him last month on charges of felony burglary with battery, burglary of an unoccupied conveyance and criminal mischief stemming from a Jan. 21 incident with a moving truck driver at his residence.
The former Steelers wide receiver did not specify what he was apologizing for in his radio interview. He addressed the issues that led to him missing Week 17 of the 2018 season, when the Steelers were still in playoff contention.
Brown did not acknowledge a series of tweets sent in September after he was released by the New England Patriots following multiple accusations of sexual misconduct. In one of those tweets, he referenced Roethlisberger's four-game suspension in 2010 for violating the NFL's personal conduct policy based on a sexual assault accusation, saying it's a "crazy world."
In his radio interview, Brown said he and Roethlisberger regularly had spoken while they were both with the Steelers, including before that acrimonious final game in 2018.
"A lot of people are really nervous to tell him what he really is, based on the position he's in," Brown said. "We had a real heart-to-heart hash-it-out, but I just think too much stuff built up that it was too late."
Brown told the radio station that he felt respected in Pittsburgh but that there was too much focus on individual goals over winning.
"At the time, what was important for me -- winning a Super Bowl ... I just think we had a lot of things that was important to individuals, but it wasn't really important to do the big thing, which was win the Super Bowl. ... Guys on the team wasn't really willing to push to go get what was important."
He singled out former teammate JuJu Smith-Schuster, saying the younger wide receiver showed him disrespect on social media after Brown was traded to the Oakland Raiders. They have traded barbs over the past year, but Smith-Schuster expressed "concern" for Brown last week in a radio interview from the Super Bowl with Pro Football Talk.
Brown, who has been a free agent since the Patriots released him, is being investigated by the NFL under its personal conduct policy following a lawsuit filed by his former trainer, Britney Taylor, that alleges she was sexually assaulted by Brown on multiple occasions. Brown also was accused of sexual misconduct at his home by an artist who was working there in 2017.
Regarding his NFL future, Brown said he doesn't know what will come.
"I don't know what I'm going to do right now," he told 93.7 The Fan. "I'm just taking it one day at a time."
Hawks waive Nene after acquiring him in trade
The Atlanta Hawks requested waivers on center Nene on Thursday, the team announced.
The Hawks had acquired Nene from the Houston Rockets in the four-team trade that sent Clint Capela to Atlanta.
Nene's $2.7 million salary for the 2020-21 season would have become guaranteed if he had not been waived by Feb. 15, according to ESPN's Bobby Marks.
Nene, 37, hasn't played this season because of a hip injury. He has career averages of 11.3 points and 6 rebounds in 17 seasons.
Sources: Knicks plan to hire agent Rose for prez
The New York Knicks are planning to hire CAA basketball player agent Leon Rose as the franchise's president of basketball operations, league sources told ESPN.
Shortly before firing team president Steve Mills this week, Knicks owner James Dolan began exploring the front-office model of hiring a top basketball executive out of the player-agent ranks, sources said. That has gained popularity with the successes of Bob Myers of the Golden State Warriors and Rob Pelinka of the Los Angeles Lakers.
Rose has been one of the top agents in basketball for decades, with clients including Joel Embiid, Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Karl-Anthony Towns, Carmelo Anthony and Kyle Kuzma. Previous Rose clients included LeBron James and Allen Iverson.
No formal deal is expected to be announced anytime soon, but formal negotiations are expected to begin shortly after the NBA trade deadline Thursday.
The Knicks are 15-36, the third-worst mark in the Eastern Conference.
Mills, 60, had been the Knicks' president since July 2017 and previously worked as their executive vice president since 2013. Before being promoted to president, Mills had also served as the team's general manager since March 18, 2014. He originally joined the Knicks in 1999 as executive vice president of franchise operations.
The 2020 NBA trade deadline is today at 3 p.m. ET.
There have already been a flurry of moves this week, most notably the four-team, 12-player megadeal headlined by the Houston Rockets sending center Clint Capela to the Atlanta Hawks. In the most recent high-profile move, the Miami Heat landed veteran Andre Iguodala from the Memphis Grizzlies. And Miami might not be done.
What else are ESPN's Insiders hearing, and what's the latest on the ever-changing trade market?
Get all of the intel and analysis from our experts here, including trade grades and live updates.
NBA trade tracker: Grades and details for every deal
Latest updates
Feb. 6: The New York Knicks plan to make CAA player agent Leon Rose the franchise's next president, league sources tell ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski and Ramona Shelburne. The Knicks parted ways with president Steve Mills on Tuesday, and owner Jim Dolan had been reportedly pursuing Toronto Raptors president Masai Ujiri for the role.
Feb. 6: The Miami Heat and representatives for Oklahoma City Thunder forward Danilo Gallinari were working on a contract extension overnight to help finalize a three-team trade involving the Heat, Thunder and Memphis Grizzlies, league sources tell ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski. The challenge: Miami's desire to preserve cap space for 2021. Gallinari can become a free agent this summer.
Feb. 6: The Atlanta Hawks have made it official and waived Nene, who was acquired from the Houston Rockets in the four-team, 12-player deal that also sent Clint Capela to Atlanta. Nene's $2.7 million salary for the 2020-21 season would have become guaranteed if he was not waived before Feb. 15.
Feb. 5: The Philadelphia 76ers have agreed in principle to acquire wings Glenn Robinson III and Alec Burks from the Golden State Warriors, a league source tells ESPN. Philadelphia will send three second-round draft picks to Golden State as compensation. The Sixers are working on additional trades to create roster spots needed to add Robinson and Burks before the 3 p.m. ET deadline, otherwise Philadelphia will have to waive both players.
Feb. 5: The Sacramento Kings will trade Dewayne Dedmon back to the Atlanta Hawks for Jabari Parker and Alex Len, sources tell ESPN's Zach Lowe and Adrian Wojnarowski. Atlanta will receive a second-round pick in 2020 and 2021 in the deal.
Feb. 5: The Memphis Grizzlies have agreed to a deal to send Andre Iguodala to the Miami Heat, a league source tells ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski. Iguodala agreed to the trade and has agreed to a two-year, $30 million extension with Miami with a team option for the 2021-22 season. Justise Winslow is reportedly headed to Memphis in the deal.
A third team, the Oklahoma City Thunder, are working with Miami and Memphis to complete an elaborate three-team deal that would land the Heat both Iguodala and Danilo Gallinari, league sources tell Wojnarowski. Talks are ongoing and could extend into Thursday.
Feb. 5: The Detroit Pistons and their discussions with the Phoenix Suns on a Luke Kennard trade have reached an impasse, league sources tell ESPN. Sides unable to agree on protections for a Suns first-round pick that would have been in the deal.
Feb. 5: The Lakers inquired about Oklahoma City Thunder point guard Dennis Schroder as they look to improve at point guard, sources told ESPN's Dave McMenamin, but OKC was not looking to move Schroder without a hefty return. ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski said on the Woj and Lowe Trade Deadline Special that the Thunder are open for business when it comes to their veterans but that they're under no pressure to make moves now.
Feb. 5: LA Clippers guard Landry Shamet has been off-limits in trade talks with the New York Knicks for Marcus Morris Sr., according to a report by Adrian Wojnarowski on the Woj and Lowe Trade Deadline Special. After parting ways with president Steve Mills on Tuesday, the Knicks are more open to seeing what they can get for Morris and their veterans. The Los Angeles Lakers also have been pursuing Morris and other potential upgrades.
Feb. 5: The New Orleans Pelicans continue to be content with point guard Jrue Holiday remaining on the roster through Thursday's deadline, league sources told ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski. The kind of overwhelming offer it would take to pry Holiday away from New Orleans hasn't surfaced in the marketplace.
Must-reads
Answering big questions before the NBA trade deadline
ESPN insiders Bobby Marks and Kevin Pelton answer the big questions heading toward deadline day, including what trades make the most sense for top contenders, how to value 2020 first-round picks, who are the underrated trade targets and more.
How Andre Iguodala handled his rare NBA sabbatical
Iguodala hasn't played a second of basketball since June, but now he's back on a contender. Here's how he spent his time away from the NBA.
More updates
Feb. 4: ESPN sources told Adrian Wojnarowski that a four-team trade involving the Houston Rockets, Minnesota Timberwolves, Atlanta Hawks and Denver Nuggets has been agreed to in principle. The Rockets will acquire Robert Covington, the Hawks will get Clint Capela and Nene Hilario, and the Timberwolves will receive Malik Beasley, Juan Hernangomez, Evan Turner and Atlanta's future first-round pick via Brooklyn. The Nuggets will receive Keita Bates-Diop from the Timberwolves and Gerald Green and a future first-round pick from the Rockets. Green will waive his right to veto being included in this deal, a source said.
Denver is trading Jarred Vanderbilt to Minnesota, league sources told Wojnarowski. Minnesota will send Noah Vonleh and Shabazz Napier back to Denver and Jordan Bell to Houston.
Atlanta will waive Chandler Parsons and his expiring $25.1M contract to create roster space to complete the acquisition of Capela and Nene, league sources tell ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski. Parsons had played just five games for the Hawks this season.
Feb. 4: The New York Knicks are parting ways with team president Steve Mills, and Knicks owner Jim Dolan is targeting Toronto Raptors president Masai Ujiri to oversee New York's operations, league sources told ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski. The move comes two days before Thursday's trade deadline, and the Knicks remain open to the idea of moving veteran forward Marcus Morris.
Should the Knicks wait on Masai Ujiri? Breaking down their next moves
Feb. 3: The Detroit Pistons and Phoenix Suns are discussing a deal centered on Pistons guard Luke Kennard, league sources tell ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski. The Suns could use their first-round pick to complete a deal for Kennard, who has missed 22 straight games with bilateral knee tendinitis. One possible package includes Suns guards Jevon Carter, Elie Okobo and a first-round pick. Phoenix imagines Kennard as a 30 minute-plus per game floor spacer to complement Devin Booker, Kelly Oubre Jr. and Ricky Rubio, according to Wojnarowski.
Jan. 24: The Golden State Warriors are finalizing a deal to trade center Willie Cauley-Stein to the Dallas Mavericks for a 2020 second-round pick, league sources told ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski. Cauley-Stein, 26, provides the Mavericks with a backup big to replace Dwight Powell, who suffered a ruptured right Achilles on Tuesday.
Jan. 18: The Portland Trail Blazers have traded Kent Bazemore, Anthony Tolliver and two second-round picks to the Sacramento Kings for Trevor Ariza, Wenyen Gabriel, and Caleb Swanigan, a source tells ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski. The deal saves the Blazers, who entered Saturday's games 10th in the West at 18-25, $12.3 million, cutting their luxury tax bill in half.
Jan. 16: The Atlanta Hawks are acquiring Minnesota Timberwolves point guard Jeff Teague in a three-player trade, league sources told ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski. Minnesota is also sending the Hawks guard Treveon Graham in a deal that returns guard Allen Crabbe to the Timberwolves, league sources said. Minnesota creates an open roster spot that could be useful in bigger trades before the Feb. 6 deadline.
Jan. 3: The Detroit Pistons and Atlanta Hawks have been engaged in talks on a trade centered on Andre Drummond, league sources told ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski. Drummond has a $28 million player option for next season that he is unlikely to exercise, forcing the Pistons to consider the possibility of losing the veteran center in free agency.
Dec. 23: The Utah Jazz are signing G League guard Rayjon Tucker to a multi-year contract, agents Reggie Brown and Mark Bartelstein of Priority Sports tell ESPN NBA Insider Adrian Wojnarowski. The Jazz are also waiving veteran forward Jeff Green, sources tell Wojnarowski.
Dec. 23: The Cleveland Cavaliers have agreed to trade Jordan Clarkson to the Utah Jazz for Dante Exum, league sources tell ESPN NBA Insider Adrian Wojnarowski. Utah also will send Cleveland a 2022 San Antonio Spurs second-round pick and a 2023 Golden State Warriors second-round pick, sources tell ESPN's Brian Windhorst.
Rockies extend Jimenez invite to spring training
DENVER -- Ubaldo Jimenez will return to the mound for the Colorado Rockies in spring training.
The hard-throwing righty with the distinctive delivery was one of 21 players to receive a non-roster invitation to spring training from the Rockies on Wednesday. The list also includes catcher Drew Butera and infielder Chris Owings.
The 36-year-old Jimenez hasn't pitched in the majors since Sept. 22, 2017, with Baltimore. He was originally signed by Colorado as an amateur free agent while a teenager.
Jimenez became a fan favorite at Coors Field after bursting on the scene in September 2006. The affable pitcher from the Dominican Republic tossed Colorado's only no-hitter on April 7, 2010, in Atlanta. He wound up 19-8 with a 2.88 ERA that season and finished third in the NL Cy Young voting.
His 19 wins remain a single-season Rockies record.
Jimenez was dealt to Cleveland in July 2011, where he spent two more seasons before signing a free-agent deal with Baltimore prior to 2014.
He's 114-117 over his career with a 4.34 ERA. Jimenez has struck out 1,720 in 1,870 innings.
Colorado's pitchers and catchers are scheduled to have their first workout Feb. 12. The first full-squad workout is set for Feb. 17.
Sources: Prospect's exam holding up Betts trade
The blockbuster three-way trade that would send star outfielder Mookie Betts and starter David Price to the Los Angeles Dodgers has been held up due to questions regarding the health of one player involved in the deal, though officials with the teams remain confident it will be completed, sources familiar with the situation tell ESPN.
The deal, which would send Betts and Price to the Dodgers, outfielder Alex Verdugo and pitching prospect Brusdar Graterol to the Boston Red Sox and starter Kenta Maeda to the Minnesota Twins, was not completed Wednesday after being agreed upon Tuesday night. The Red Sox, sources said, were spooked by a medical review of Graterol, the hard-throwing 21-year-old right-hander who has undergone Tommy John surgery and missed time in 2019 because of a shoulder injury.
Alternative options to complete a deal exist, according to sources. The players involved could be amended, as could the amount of money Boston is sending to Los Angeles to cover a portion of the $96 million still owed Price. The Dodgers and Red Sox could theoretically opt for a two-team deal or involve a different third team; Graterol is currently with the Twins.
The likelihood of the trade of Betts to the Dodgers blowing up altogether, sources said, is slim, as medical-related impasses are typically worked around. Although the negative reaction in Boston to trading Betts, a homegrown franchise player, was loud and abundant, it was not a driving force behind the holdup, sources said. Boston simply wants to ensure that it receives a commensurate return for the 27-year-old right fielder, who is entering his final season before free agency and is expected to seek a contract well in excess of $300 million and perhaps even $400 million.
The three-way trade is tied to another proposed deal in which the Dodgers would send outfielder Joc Pederson, starter Ross Stripling and prospect Andy Pages to the Los Angeles Angels for infielder Luis Rengifo and a prospect, according to sources. By offloading Pederson, the Dodgers would remain underneath the $208 million luxury-tax threshold, even after taking on the hefty salaries of Betts and Price.
Boston's motivation to dip beneath the threshold was a strong part of its motivation to deal Betts, sources said. Packaging Betts and Price would allow Boston to shed more than $40 million in payroll this season and reset future luxury-tax consequences instead of exceeding the threshold for the third consecutive season and compounding the penalties for doing so.
The holdup, first reported by The Athletic, "is a problem but one we can figure out," according to a source involved in the deal. With pitchers and catchers due to report to Red Sox and Twins camp Wednesday and Dodgers camp Feb. 14, the incentive to find a quick resolution is strong and work will continue Thursday.
Which clubs will rise to superteam status in 2020?
Over the past few years, 100-win seasons have become commonplace. The Houston Astros and New York Yankees have won at least 100 games in each of the past two seasons, while the Los Angeles Dodgers have averaged more than 100 wins over the past three years -- and seem likely to do so again after trading for Mookie Betts.
Major League Baseball is seeing more high-end teams enjoy sustained success at the top of the sport, but that success can be fleeting. We've seen a potential Cubs dynasty unravel, and teams in Boston and Cleveland have taken steps backward as well. Even the reigning world champion Nationals have had inconsistent success despite tremendous talent on their roster each season.
Right now, the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers can be clearly classified as baseball's superteams given their track record over the past few seasons. All three will head into the 2020 season with high expectations to contend. The more interesting question is which teams might join that trio -- or even displace them -- in the coming years. For each league, I've chosen a prime contender and a wild card or two.
They secretly replaced Yankee Stadium ... and other lies we can prove using real stats
In the first few weeks after the baseball season begins next month, we will all be on our guard for bad arguments propped up by small samples of data. We might be tempted to fall for On Pace and What's Changed, but we also know that a few weeks of stats often -- usually? -- lie. We, being sophisticated scholars of the truth, will wait a few months, thank you very much.
But the greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he had a large enough sample size. Baseball statistics can keep lying all year long, if you let them. A whole season of stats, across the entire league, can still tell a lie or two.
What follow are lies. We repeat: They are lies! We are going to tell you things that are not true, using data that technically is. Do not be fooled. We are lying to you. Although, maybe, there's a bit of truth to take away from each.
Lie No. 1: Sometime between the end of the 2018 season and the start of the 2019 season, an army of construction workers snuck out to Yankee Stadium in the dark of night. They tore down the stadium. They replaced it with a brand new stadium. They told nobody.
The evidence: OK, so: By May 2009 -- just one month after the Yankees opened The House That George Built -- the new park's reputation was already established: It "has become one of the biggest jokes in baseball," according to Peter Gammons. The park's dimensions were said to exactly replicate those of its predecessor, but analysis of satellite images cast doubt on that claim, and right field in particular seemed shorter than the old park. "I'm tired of people saying it's too early, we don't have enough games," Gammons said at the time. "We have enough games."
And, indeed, for the next decade the park would consistently play as one of the most hitter-friendly in baseball, and as probably the most homer-friendly park. When Yankees right-handers put the ball in the air to right field, they slugged 200 points higher at home than elsewhere. When Yankees lefties pulled the ball in the air, they slugged almost 300 points higher at home. And the team's opponents showed similar splits, hitting -- over the course of the first decade -- 200 more homers against Yankees pitching in New York than elsewhere. Year after year, Yankee Stadium ranked near the top of offensive park factors:
In the first year, the Yankees and their opponents hit 12% more homers in Yankee Stadium than elsewhere, and so on. And then, suddenly, unexpectedly, inexplicably -- unless you know about the secret army of construction workers -- that collapsed last year.
Yankee Stadium's run-scoring park factor was the second lowest in baseball, ahead of only Oracle Park in San Francisco. Yankees hitters hit worse at home than on the road for the first time since Yankee Stadium opened in 2009. Their pitchers, meanwhile, showed their biggest home-field advantage ever, with an ERA at home almost a run and a half lower than on the road. Fifteen Yankees batted at least 50 times at home, and 10 of them hit worse at home than they did on the road -- despite having home-field advantage. Poor Didi Gregorius hit .196/.226/.345 at home, .273/.317/.523 on the road. On the road he was a star. But at home, stifled by Yankee Stadium's suddenly harsh environment, his free-agent case shriveled.
The truth: But, wait. Did the Yankees do worse at home than they did on the road, as we kept stating above? Or did they do better on the road than at home? The answer is, of course, yes to both -- it's the same fact, stated differently. But the framing changed the takeaway.
All of the evidence (for this lie) has been based on two numbers in relationship to each other. Yankee Stadium looks like it's less hitter-friendly because the same hitters hit worse there than they did elsewhere. But the abnormal performances weren't in Yankee Stadium (with the exception of Gregorius, cherry-picked for just that purpose). The abnormal performances were everywhere else.
On the road, Yankees hitters were transcendent. They hit the second-most road home runs in history, by any team. And, on the road, their pitchers were awful: They allowed the most road home runs by any team in history. Two extreme outliers.
At home, the Yankees were pretty much what we would have expected. They hit a ton of homers -- tied for the second most in the majors, and one dinger shy of their franchise record -- just like a team with Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and sometimes Giancarlo Stanton should do. Their pitchers, meanwhile, allowed the 14th-most homers in the league at home. In 2018, with most of those same pitchers, they finished ... 14th in the league, too.
So, yes, something strange happened to the Yankees last year. But it wasn't what they did at home. It was what they did on the road. That leaves two possibilities: One is that, by a couple of those strange flukes that happen in baseball in relatively small samples, the Yankees' hitters wildly outperformed their skill level on the road for a season, while by remarkable coincidence their pitchers wildly underperformed their skill level on the road. This is a little bit hard to believe. But it's not that hard to believe.
The other possibility is that Yankees hitters really were the historic juggernaut they appeared to be on the road, and Yankees pitchers were the disaster staff they appeared to be on the road -- and that these true talent levels were disguised by some strange, out-of-character Yankee Stadium stinginess (or the new dimensions of a secretly constructed new ballpark). This is hard to believe, and stays hard to believe no matter how long you keep thinking about it.
Lie No. 2: When Leury Garcia is on the bases and the umpires turn their backs, Garcia cuts across the infield from first to third, or from second directly to home. This is why last year he was just about the most successful baserunner of the decade.
The evidence: Last year, Garcia scored 47% of the time he reached base for the Chicago White Sox, not counting home runs. That was the highest rate in baseball, and -- relative to the league average rate (31%), it means Garcia scored around 30 more runs than an average runner would have. Thirty runs above average is about what Nolan Arenado added with his bat last year, and what Ozzie Smith added with his glove in his best season. But the weird thing is, Garcia isn't that fast -- he ranks around 100th in the majors in sprint speed, just behind Hunter Pence and Jose Altuve -- and he isn't very aggressive, either. His 15 stolen bases last year tied him with Shin-Soo Choo and Cody Bellinger for 33rd in the majors.
And yet he was the best scorer in baseball, and one of the best this decade. The lone baserunner to score more frequently in the 2010s was Dee Gordon, in 2017 for the Miami Marlins, at 48% of his appearances on base. Gordon, by contrast, was that fast (17th in sprint speed) and he was that aggressive, stealing 60 bases to lead the majors. He was also batting at the top of the National League's best offense that season, in front of Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna and Stanton during his 59-home run season. It all made sense. Garcia, by contrast, batted at the top of a below-average offense, for a White Sox team that scored only 708 runs, the third-fewest in the American League. Despite this lack of offensive support, he memorized the route from first to home and made it often. He's the best!
The truth: OK, Garcia really was a pretty good baserunner, overall. His 27 "bases taken" -- on wild pitches and passed balls, sacrifice flies and balks -- was the third most in baseball last year. He took the extra base on hits -- going first to third on a single, for instance -- 52% of the time, not among the league leaders but well above average. His baserunning WAR was, at 4.5 runs above average, the ninth highest in baseball.
But 4.5 runs is a far cry from the 30 runs his runs-scored percentage implies. So where are all those coming from? Two main things.
The first is that the batters behind him were, although nothing special on paper, surprisingly special when Garcia was on base. Chicago's Nos. 2, 3 and 4 hitters were collectively worse than the league average in those spots. But they raked when Garcia (specifically Garcia) got on base:
Jose Abreu: .345/.368/.527 with Garcia on base
Yoan Moncada: .366/.460/.659
Tim Anderson: .342/.378/.487
James McCann: .364/.417/.955
Those are the White Sox who most often batted behind Garcia. The club as a whole hit .322/.377/.535 with Garcia on base. Weighted for their overall season lines, the White Sox would have been expected to hit just .283/.329/.478. Through some unexplained force, Leury Garcia's presence on the bases turned everyone on the White Sox into Vladimir Guerrero.
The second is that Garcia had a knack for getting on base with nobody out. A runner who reaches first base with none out is about 50% more likely to score than a runner who reaches first base with one out, and about three times more likely than a runner who reaches with two out. Garcia usually batted leadoff, so more of his plate appearances came with nobody out. Furthermore, though, his on-base percentage with nobody out was, at .341, much better than it was with one or two out (.280). Put those two facts together, and 54% of the time he reached base it was with nobody out. Only one other player in baseball was even as high as 50%. In a small and hidden way, his ability to reach with nobody out made him a little bit clutch.
Lie No. 3: Felix Hernandez is a serious bounce-back candidate this year, so long as he can manage to lose more velocity from his fastball.
The evidence: From 2012 to 2015, Felix Hernandez was one of the best pitchers in baseball. He went 58-34 with a 2.92 ERA, getting Cy Young votes all four seasons. His average fastball was 92 mph.
Then 92 became 90.5 (in 2016 and 2017), and then 89.5 over the past two years. It has been horrifying to watch: His ERA and FIP rose in each of those years, and last year he won only one game. His career as a Mariner ended, and in January he signed a minor league deal with the Atlanta Braves.
It's pretty obvious that a fast fastball is better than a slow fastball, and this simple chart showing performance against fastballs at each velocity in 2019 demonstrates it:
With only tiny variations, every tick of velocity above 89 mph sinks offensive performance further. But notice the curious detail on the far left of the graph: Taking a tick away from 89 seemed to make it harder to hit, too. Indeed, in 2019, fastballs from 87.00 to 87.99 mph produced the same offense, basically, as fastballs from 92.00 to 92.99.
In baseball, there's a term for those slow fastballs: "Below hitting speed." It's often used as a backhanded compliment for pitchers, but it's also often used sincerely to describe pitches that are harder to hit than their slightly faster brethren. Hitting is a nearly impossible task made possible only through the pattern recognition that batters develop over the course of tens of thousands of pitches seen. Because super-slow fastballs are so unfamiliar to major league hitters, they don't fit into that pattern, and they're hard to slow down for.
Here, for instance, is Bruce Chen -- who went 82-81 as a major leaguer despite a mid-80s fastball -- talking about it in 2014: "I've had a lot of guys tell me that, to 'keep throwing below hitting speed.' I have noted the harder I try to throw, the less favorable results I have. Hitters have their timing mechanisms. That's why radar guns are so important to them. They want to know how hard, so they can time it against, 'OK, this is what I usually do against a guy who throws this speed.' And they're used to more speed than mine."
So, the lie goes, 87 is the same as 92. And when Hernandez was at 92, he was a Cy Young candidate. All he needs to do is get back to 92 -- or get down to 87. Simple!
The truth: This is, of course, a fantasy. I asked one pitcher who often worked in the high 80s whether he ever felt like he was getting an advantage from throwing that slow. "Nope. Ha."
There are a few pitchers who succeeded in the majors throwing in the mid-to-high-80s last year: Kyle Hendricks, Mike Leake and Marco Gonzales, the three lowest-velocity pitchers to qualify for the ERA title, were all above-average pitchers, and Hendricks is probably one of the 20 best pitchers in baseball. They're the bulk of the reason the line dips as it moves to the left in that graph up there. But the pool of pitchers who throw 162 innings in the big leagues each year isn't randomly selected. Those three did it because, out of the thousands of humans in the world capable of throwing in the mid-80s, they and they alone have the whole package to thrive at those velocities. That might mean deception, movement, command, fastballs that "rise" to get above barrels, and well-tunneled pitches that all look the same at the point a batter has to decide whether to swing. It doesn't mean the lower velocity itself is the advantage, any more than the occasional short NBA player proves the disadvantage of height.
I prefer "lefty who has gotten the most out of what he has". Living AT or BELOW hitting speed is the single most dangerous thing you can do on a ball field. TRUST ME. #PrayForTheThumber #SouthPause https://t.co/wEYpRnd1Ma
— Dallas Braden (@DALLASBRADEN209) July 3, 2018
Those few examples should provide a little hope for every great pitcher who loses a bunch of his velocity. It is possible to succeed at those speeds, and with a new organization, new pitching coaches and new expectations, Hernandez will continue the hard work of finding a plan that works for him at those speeds. As part of the right package, working below hitting speed might even provide the occasional small benefit. It's incredibly difficult, though, and the most likely outcome is what awaits nearly all pitchers some day: obsolescence. The sample size on that one is enormous.
Thanks to Lucas Apostoleris and Baseball Prospectus for research assistance.
The British pole vault record-holder tells AW about her January training and why warm weather camps are crucial to setting her up for performing well in the heat of competition
With a focus on lifting heavy, sprinting fast and pole vaulting, Holly Bradshaw believes her January training block in South Africa is invaluable at the start of an Olympic year.
“I like to go away in January because it’s so cold here and the quality of training is so much better out there,” she says. “I’m getting up to running at 100%, able to max in the gym and I’m jumping off a long approach.
“We’ll spend three-and-a-half weeks out in South Africa and we’ll get four or five solid pole vault sessions done and four or five speed sessions and that’ll pretty much last me all the way until the Olympics.
“Once we’re home, we’ll drip feed it once every 10 days and around competitions but, once you get into the indoor season then start competing outdoors, it’s hard to build momentum and speed like that.”
AW: What are the essential components of training at this time of year?
“Pole vault is such a confidence sport,” admits Bradshaw, who was fourth in the 2019 IAAF World Athletics Championships.
“It’s about being confident and building momentum and that’s why we go to South Africa in January. You want to be in a nice, hot environment that feels safe. You’ve been before, you know the wind is good and the facilities are good, and it’s about getting the 16-step approach run dialled in so that when it comes to competitions, you can really build momentum.
“Speed work is also so important and it played a massive part in how I performed last year. That’s another reason we go away; my 100% flat out sprint will be a lot different in South Africa to in Loughborough!”
AW: Favourite session at this time of year?
“Pole vaulting is always my favourite, but if I’m not allowed to choose pole vault then I think it would be a weights session; I love doing cleans, jerks, anything like that.”
AW: Least favourite?
“A metabolic circuit. It’s horrible, you’ve got an exercise to complete within a minute and then, depending how fast you complete it, you get the rest of the minute to recover, then move on to the next one.”
Getting ready to beat the heat
Tokyo’s heat will be a challenge for many athletes, but warm weather, it seems, brings out the best in Bradshaw. The Olympics can’t come soon enough.
A TYPICAL JANUARY TRAINING WEEK (IN SOUTH AFRICA)
MONDAY: Pole vault, off full approach
TUESDAY: Explosive throws and weights
WEDNESDAY: Tempo, gymnastics and circuits. “We do two kinds of gymnastics sessions,” she explains. “One is strength gymnastics, so it’s using gym apparatus for strength gain, while the other is skills-based and more linked to pole vault, so using the gymnastics equipment but going through the pole vault motions.”
THURSDAY: Rest – swim/yoga
FRIDAY: Speedwork, pole vault off short approach, plyometrics
SATURDAY: Weights, general strength circuits
SUNDAY: rest – swim/yoga
Incorporating gymnastics
Bradshaw has a gymnastics background, and her training group – regardless of previous gymnastics experience – use it as an integral part of the training mix.
“It doesn’t matter if you’ve been a gymnast or have never been a gymnast, it’s all pretty basic movement stuff but it’s good to keep it in the programme,” she says. “Gymnastics works different muscles that you’d never use if you just did a circuit with crunches and press-ups. It’s working all the little muscles you didn’t even know you have.”
In addition, she does hot yoga once per week for stretching and mobility.